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Poll: Shopping Trevor Bauer

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MLBTR’s Jeff Todd asked an interesting question Tuesday morning: Should the Mets entertain trade offers for ace Jacob deGrom? To this point, the majority of voters believe they should at least listen to other teams’ proposals for the 31-year-old right-hander. As great as deGrom is, he’s probably not going to help pitch the woebegone Mets into the playoffs this season.

On the other hand, Indians righty Trevor Bauer may aid in a playoff berth for his team yet again in 2019. Nevertheless, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported Monday that the Indians are “aggressive listeners” on Bauer as the July 31 trade deadline approaches. There’s wide-ranging interest in Bauer, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

Cleveland, which happens to be hosting Tuesday’s All-Star Game, went on a tear to end the season’s first half. Winners of six straight, the Indians are 50-38 – good for the majors’ seventh-highest winning percentage (.568) – and have suddenly made the AL Central race intriguing. For a large portion of the first half, it looked as if the Twins would skate to a division title. Now, though, the Indians sit a manageable 5 1/2 games behind them. The Tribe’s also 1 1/2 games up on the AL’s second wild-card spot and a half-game behind the Rays for the league’s No. 5 seed.

An appreciable amount of the Indians’ success can be attributed to the 28-year-old Bauer, which would make trading him in the next three weeks all the more surprising. No, Bauer hasn’t been the ace-caliber performer he was a year ago. Still, though, Bauer has recorded a 3.61 ERA (granted, with a less inspiring 4.10 FIP) and 10.16 K/9 against 3.48 BB/9 over a major league-leading 132 innings.

It’s hard to believe the Indians would be able to trade Bauer and better themselves for this year, especially in light of the other concerns in their rotation. The Tribe’s starting staff looked like one of the league’s best entering the season. Since then, however, Corey Kluber has struggled and missed a vast amount of the campaign because of a fractured forearm. Mike Clevinger has made just five starts, over which he has been a mixed bag, because of a back injury. Worst of all, the team’s still reeling from the awful news that the excellent Carlos Carrasco, who hasn’t pitched since May 30, is battling leukemia.

The absences of Kluber and Carrasco have left Bauer, Clevinger and stellar young righty Shane Bieber as the lone truly dependable members of the Indians’ rotation. Fill-in Jefry Rodriguez has been on the injured list since June 1 with a strained shoulder, and rookie Zach Plesac has fallen off of late. Meantime, Adam Plutko has posted a below-average ERA (4.95) through 36 1/3 innings, and that outdoes even less shiny peripherals.

All of that said, Cleveland’s in an unenviable position with Bauer, whom it will probably lose soon even if it keeps him through the season. Bauer’s making a somewhat expensive $13MM and only controllable through 2020. If we’re to take his word for it, the offbeat Bauer will be trying to max out on one-year contracts every winter in free agency after that. Therefore, if the Indians weren’t in contention, now would clearly be the time for the Indians to flip Bauer. But the back-to-back-to-back AL Central champions are very much in the hunt right now, which could set the stage for an agonizing Bauer decision this month. What do you think they should do?

(Poll link for app users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Poll: Should Mets Entertain Offers For Jacob deGrom?

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In an interesting examination, Joel Sherman of the New York Post makes the case that the Mets ought to take offers on ace Jacob deGrom. He doesn’t exactly advocate a swap — the club ought to move him only “if the return is so overwhelming that they can’t say no,” in Sherman’s estimation — but does suggest it’s a realistic possibility worth pursuing.

That’d be quite an about-face given that deGrom only just inked an extension with the New York organization over the offseason. It really doesn’t kick in until after the present season. Nominally a four-year, $120.5MM pact, the value of the extension was reduced significantly by deferrals.

That is a lot of coin for a pitcher who recently reached his 31st birthday, though deGrom is not just any hurler. He hasn’t been as dominant as he was last year, but that’s due mostly to regression in the home run department and a few shifts in sequencing fortune. Through 110 innings, he carries a 3.27 ERA with 11.3 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9. All the skills remain evident: deGrom has actually boosted his average fastball velocity to over 97 mph and is maintaining a swinging-strike rate in range of 15%.

There are some obvious barriers to a deal, as Sherman notes, beginning with Mets ownership. Even if the Wilpons are willing to authorize a franchise-altering swap, deGrom would have his say given his full no-trade rights.

That doesn’t mean it isn’t fascinating to consider the possibilities. At the moment, this year’s trade market is led by decidedly less-valuable hurlers such as Madison Bumgarner (who hasn’t lived up to his storied past of late), Marcus Stroman (often excellent but not consistently dominant), and deGrom’s teammate Zack Wheeler (ditto). deGrom is unquestionably one of the game’s very best pitchers; controlling him for four years at big but not eye-watering money would hold plenty of appeal.

There’s certainly some sense in the notion that the Mets ought to be willing to hit the re-set button. The offseason moves of new GM Brodie Van Wagenen have not hit the mark thus far; neither did those of his predecessor Sandy Alderson in the winter prior. Keeping deGrom while dealing only rental pieces would presumably mean a third-straight offseason re-tooling effort on the heels of a disappointing season.

On the other hand, the Mets would find themselves in a funny spot without deGrom. They still owe big money to players such as Yoenis Cespedes, Robinson Cano, Jed Lowrie, Wilson Ramos, and Jeurys Familia. They’ll be paying another arb raise to Noah Syndergaard, unless he’s also made available. (That would arguably make quite a bit of sense, whether or not deGrom is shopped; perhaps the underperforming Thor deserves his own poll.)

The situation obviously does not admit of straightforward solutions. How do you think the Mets should handle it? (Poll link for app users.)

Poll: Disappointing National League Teams

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It wouldn’t have been far-fetched at the beginning of the season to expect any of the Brewers, Cubs, Rockies, Cardinals, Phillies or Mets to end up as part of this year’s National League playoff field. Three of those clubs – Milwaukee, Chicago and Colorado – earned postseason trips a year ago and continued to boast capable rosters coming into 2019. St. Louis won 88 games in 2018 and then made a couple aggressive offseason moves in an effort to get over the hump. Philadelphia and New York were sub-.500 teams last season, though the NL East rivals were among the majors’ busiest franchises over the winter.

With the regular season having reached its brief summer recess, it’s fair to say all of the above clubs have disappointed to varying degrees so far. The Cubs (47-43) and Brewers (47-44) do hold playoff spots at the moment, while the Redbirds (44-44) are just two back of those teams in the NL Central. However, they’ve each contributed to the general mediocrity of their division.

Cubs president Theo Epstein just voiced disgust over his team’s weeks-long slump. Their closest competitors, the Brewers,  have gotten another otherworldly season from reigning NL MVP outfielder Christian Yelich. A thumb injury has helped lead to sizable steps back for 2018 outfield complement Lorenzo Cain, though, while first baseman Jesus Aguilar has a mere eight home runs after slugging 35 a season ago. Meanwhile, the Brew Crew’s pitching staff – like the Cubs’ and the Cardinals’ – has underwhelmed throughout the season. The Cards’ offense has also sputtered, in part because headlining offseason pickup and longtime superstar first baseman Paul Goldschmidt hasn’t resembled the player he was as a Diamondback.

The Rockies (44-45) reached the playoffs last year thanks largely to their starting pitching – something which has seldom been true about the team in its history. This season, though, reigning NL Cy Young candidate Kyle Freeland’s output has been so dreadful that he has spent the past month-plus trying to regain form in the minors. Aside from German Marquez and Jon Gray, nobody else in the Rockies’ starting staff has stepped up to grab a stranglehold of a spot.

Shifting to the NL East, the Phillies are in wild-card position at 47-43, but a .522 winning percentage and a plus-2 run differential may not have been what they had in mind after an action-packed offseason. A record-setting contract for Bryce Harper was the Phillies’ largest strike, but they also grabbed J.T. Realmuto, Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura and David Robertson in other noteworthy transactions. However, at least offensively, Harper, Realmuto and Segura haven’t matched their 2018 production. McCutchen was enjoying another quality season before suffering a season-ending torn ACL a month ago, meanwhile, and Robertson got off to a terrible start in the year’s first couple weeks. The long-effective reliever has been on the injured list since mid-April with a flexor strain. Even with a healthy McCutchen and Robertson, the Phillies would still be riddled with problems in their pitching staff – including the rapidly declining Jake Arrieta, whose season may be in jeopardy because of a bone spur in his elbow.

The Mets are rife with concerns on and off the field, with recent behind-the-scenes drama involving GM Brodie Van Wagenen and manager Mickey Callaway the source of the franchise’s latest unwanted attention. Van Wagenen’s audacious offseason signings and trades were supposed to help the Mets snap a two-year playoff drought this season. Instead, the team’s an abysmal 40-50 through 90 games and on track to sell at the July 31 trade deadline. Trading for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz hasn’t worked out at all, while splashy free-agent additions Jeurys Familia, Jed Lowrie (injured all season and possibly out for the year), Wilson Ramos (a potential trade candidate just a few months into a two-year contract) and Justin Wilson have also failed to meet expectations.

In a league where only the Dodgers and Braves have truly stood out so far, all of these clubs still have at least some chance to earn playoff spots this season. They’re each no worse than seven back of postseason position at the All-Star break. Considering your preseason expectations, though, who’s the biggest disappointment to date?

(Poll link for app users)

Poll: Who’s Going To Play In The World Series?

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There’s a ton of baseball yet to be played, and the trade deadline is likely to result in some drastically-changed rosters.  But since we’re now at the All-Star break, the season’s unofficial halfway point, it seems as good a time as any to ask the readership about their picks for the Fall Classic.

We’ll break the questions down by American League and National League, and even this deep into the season, there aren’t that many teams who seem firmly out of the race.  The NL is particularly crowded, to the point that while the Giants seem like major postseason longshots and will likely be deadline sellers, they’re still only 5.5 games back of the wild card.  In the AL, the White Sox face longer odds to get into the playoffs (seven games back of the wild card, 12.5 games behind Minnesota in the Central), but they also have a respectable 42-44 record.

With apologies to the Orioles, Tigers, Royals, Blue Jays, Marlins, Mariners, and Mets, they’ve all been left out of the polls.  (If any of these teams goes on a Miracle Braves type of run and ends up winning the pennant, I am fully aware that fans of this team will throw this post back in my face for the rest of time.)  That leaves a whopping 23 teams still technically in the mix, and while a lot would have to go right for some of these clubs to develop into true contenders, there’s always still a chance.

Who do you think will be representing their league in the World Series?  (For Trade Rumors app users, here are the links to the AL poll and the NL poll)

Better Rental: Madison Bumgarner Or Zack Wheeler?

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It’s fair to say Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner and Mets right-hander Zack Wheeler are the two best soon-to-be free-agent starters who could realistically change teams before the July 31 trade deadline. Neither the Giants nor Mets are in contention, and there haven’t been any rumors about extension talks between the teams and the hurlers. Furthermore, both clubs’ farm systems are lacking, so trading Bumgarner and Wheeler could help the organizations better themselves in that area. The question is: Who’s the more desirable of the pair?

The more impressive track record belongs to Bumgarner, who will turn 30 the day after the deadline. He’s a three-time World Series champion and one of the most successful postseason pitchers in recent memory, which could matter to starter-needy clubs that have their sights set on fall baseball. Bumgarner owns a phenomenal 2.11 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 in 102 1/3 playoff innings, though he hasn’t pitched that deep into the season since 2016. More recently, Bumgarner has morphed into a mid-rotation starter, no longer the front-line stalwart he was when he was helping the Giants to championships.

This season, Bumgarner has pitched to a 4.02 ERA/3.96 FIP with a 35.8 percent groundball rate over 109 2/3 innings, and has seen hitters put up a .332 expected weighted on-base average against his offerings versus a .311 real wOBA. Those are respectable numbers, but they’re not those of a rotation savior. At the same time, though, Bumgarner has produced a K/BB ratio befitting of an ace. With 9.27 K/9 against 1.97 BB/9, he stands 17th in the majors in K/BB ratio (4.71). The fact that Bumgarner has recorded career-best chase and first-pitch strike rates has helped him in that regard.

Wheeler’s also 29, yet he doesn’t have a single inning of playoff experience. Still, there’s a case to be made that he’s a better asset than Bumgarner. This much is clear: On a $5.975MM salary against Bumgarner’s $12MM, Wheeler is noticeably less expensive. And while Bumgarner’s not going to intimidate anyone with his low-90s velocity, Wheeler attacks hitters with one of the hardest fastballs in the game – a pitch that averages upward of 97.2 mph. Wheeler has used his velo to register 9.71 K/9 versus 2.53 BB/9 this year, yet he hasn’t had an easy time preventing runs. Wheeler’s ERA is at a lofty 4.42 through 114 frames, but his FIP’s a much more encouraging 3.63, and he has induced grounders at roughly a 45 percent clip. He’s also outdoing Bumgarner in the wOBA/xwOBA department (.295/.302).

Undoubtedly, Bumgarner or Wheeler is a question playoff-caliber teams seeking starters have asked themselves in recent weeks, and it’s one they’ll continue debating leading up to the deadline. With both pitchers likely on the move in the next four weeks, they may end up having a large amount of say in this year’s playoff race and perhaps the postseason itself. Which of the two would you rather have?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Will The Padres Trade Kirby Yates?

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We’ve seen signs that the Padres are pondering a move this summer involving Kirby Yates. At least, that’s how I interpret recent reports from the team’s beat writers on just how hesitant the team is to move a player who has arguably been the game’s best reliever to this point of the season.

Sure, the Friars are putting out word that it’d take an “overwhelming offer” or an “unforeseen haul” to part with Yates. This is roughly like putting up your house on Zillow’s “Make Me Move” listings, but requesting blind bids instead of posting a zany asking price. Yates is totally not available … unless …

Let’s just say the Padres are interested in seeing how interested their rivals are in making a deal.

This is a familiar strategy with regard to controllable closers. And it’s one that often, but doesn’t always, lead to a swap. It feels as if Felipe Vazquez and Raisel Iglesias have been trade candidates for years. Surely, the Pirates and Reds have fielded offers, both before and after inking those two relievers to extensions. They haven’t moved … yet. The Padres have intimate, recent experience with just this sort of thing, having held onto Brad Hand, then signed him to an extension, and then traded him. Likewise, the Yankees hemmed and hawed and finally dealt Andrew Miller (like Hand, to the Indians) only after securing an offer of “two twin firstborns.”

In this case, there are certainly some strong reasons to think the Pads will have interest in a deal. Yates is already 32 years of age. The club is two games under .500 and has already been buried in the NL West (along with the rest of the division) by the powerhouse Dodgers.

On the other hand, Yates is also still controllable for another season — one in which the San Diego team hopes to be fully competitive. Heck, Yates could even be an extension candidate in the mold of Hand.

It’s hard to imagine Yates will ever look better on paper. He has racked up 27 saves in 35 1/3 innings of 1.27 ERA pitching, with an exceptional combination of 14.3 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9. He has allowed just 21 hits and one home run this year. He’s earning only $3MM and change for the present campaign.

Yates has quite a lot of trade value. He also holds no shortage of appeal to a Padres team that needs to be efficient with its spending after making some uncharacteristically massive free agent outlays.

How do you see this one turning out? (Poll link for app users.)

MLBTR Poll: What To Do With Jorge Soler?

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The buzz has been positive around Jorge Soler’s mini-breakout campaign this year, as he’s turned in a .248/.312/.532 line with an eye-grabbing 21 home runs. It’s a good news-bad news situation for the Royals, as the jump in production makes Soler likely to decline a $4MM option and become eligible for arbitration, per MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan.

On the whole, he’s much the same player he’s always been, but the mere fact that he’s been healthy (knock on wood) is a positive change. But has his game improved otherwise? The realization of his long-tantalizing raw power (.284 ISO) makes up the majority of Soler’s improvement. Meanwhile, his walk rate has fallen below-average to 7.5 BB% and his strikeout rate is up a tick as well, though the quality of his contact has been strong across the board.

He will be an interesting arbitration case to follow, as slugger’s of Soler’s ilk generally fare better in arbitration than they might on today’s open market. C.J. Cron jumps to mind as a comp, whom the Rays DFA’ed after a 30-homer, 2.0 rWAR season rather than give a raise on his $2.3MM 2018 salary. Cron ended up in Minnesota for $4.8MM, where he’s already accumulated 2.0 rWAR via his .279/.344/.534 batting line. Such numbers might be a best-case scenario for Soler in 2020, as even Cron’s 2018 lands slightly higher than Soler’s 2019 by wRC+ (122 to 118).

Depending on where the Royals fall in their valuation of Soler, a non-tender would not be wholly unreasonable were he to opt into arbitration as Flanagan suggests. At 27-years-old, Soler should be entering his prime, and depending on how this season ends, he could be coming off the most prodigious power season in Royals history. Power pays in arbitration.

The Royals typically have their own way of doing things, however, and Soler’s power is a unique contribution on a roster that ranks 23rd in the majors in isolated power and slugging percentage. Their books remain relatively clean moving forward, especially after 2020 when only Danny Duffy, Salvador Perez, and Whit Merrifield are under contract. Dayton Moore could attempt to buy out Soler’s two remaining arbitration years in one fell swoop. Investing in an injury-prone, one-dimensional designated hitter – even a good one – is not necessarily the safest stock option for the Royals, however.

It’s only June 22, so much of this story has yet to play out – but it’s never too early to gauge public opinion! Besides, what better way to start out your Saturday morning than with a healthy pondering of the best application of the Royals future payroll?

If Soler’s trajectory holds and he opts into arbitration, how should the Royals respond? (Poll link for app users.)

MLBTR Poll: Grade The Edwin Encarnacion Swap

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The Yankees struck early over the weekend, lining up a deal with the Mariners to bring in slugger Edwin Encarnacion. It’ll reportedly cost the club a pitching prospect (Juan Then) and something like $7MM in salary obligations (approximately half of the remainder owed by the M’s this season and on a 2020 option buyout).

(I’d like to crow over the fact that I prognosticated EE as the next player to be traded in a recent chat. Unfortunately, I was also a bit dismissive in discussing the Yankees as a possible suitor.)

It’s hard not to love the potential look of the Yanks’ lineup with Encarnacion added to the mix. He was obliterating opposing pitching to the tune of a .241/.356/.531 slash line and 21 home runs in Seattle. With fellow righty sluggers Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton on the mend, to say nothing of the players already on the active roster at the moment, the Bronx Bombers could have an otherworldly array of power bats down the stretch.

There’s certainly an argument that the New York organization should see starting pitching as its top priority. And that may well be the case. Adding EE hardly precludes further moves to add arms. The Yankees did take on luxury tax obligations and creep closer to the highest penalty level with this swap. But the deal also could help free the team to utilize young outfielder Clint Frazier in an ensuing move.

The Yanks hold the edge in the AL East at the moment, but it’s a precarious hold. The Rays seem to be here to stay while the Red Sox have steadily moved back into range. Adding Encarnacion provides an immediate boost, protects against further injury issues or setbacks, and creates immense lineup upside. On the other hand, it’s a costly move on an older player who joins a collection of defensively limited sluggers with Luke Voit already ensconced at first base and Judge & Stanton perhaps warranting some DH time when they return.

How do you grade the move? (Poll link for app users.)

Poll: Are Yankees AL Favorites?

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We’re still a month and a half from the July 31 trade deadline, but the arms race has already begun in the American League. The Yankees, one of the AL’s premier teams, pulled off a stunning move Saturday in acquiring prolific slugger Edwin Encarnacion from the Mariners for young pitching prospect Juan Then. Including the 21 home runs he has already racked up this season, no major leaguer has hit more HRs than Encarnacion’s 284 dating back to his 2012 breakout with the Blue Jays.

It’s clear the Yankees are trying to construct a super lineup, and it’s likely that’s what they’ll have when injured star outfielders Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton return from their long absences in the coming weeks. A full-strength Yankees lineup will include Encarnacion at designated hitter, Judge in right field, Stanton in left, Aaron Hicks in center, Gary Sanchez at catcher, Luke Voit at first, Gleyber Torres at second, Didi Gregorius at short and DJ LeMahieu at third. If you’re an opposing pitcher set to face that lineup, you may hope for a torrential downpour.

On the other hand, the Yankees’ starting staff looks far from foolproof, as noted earlier this week. Injured ace Luis Severino should be in position to finally make his season debut after the All-Star break. Even if that happens, the Yankees will need slumping second and third starters James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka to right themselves. The club also has to find answers behind those two, as Domingo German (now injured), CC Sabathia and J.A. Happ haven’t been able to provide any of late. Don’t be surprised if general manager Brian Cashman, after acquiring Encarnacion, makes another significant trade for starting pitching as a result.

The Yankees’ bullpen, meanwhile, doesn’t need a lot of help. Their relief corps hasn’t matched some of the “best ever” talk that was out there entering the season, but it remains a strength. And the group will become all the more formidable if Dellin Betances, yet another injured standout, returns sometime in the summer. Betances, Tommy Kahnle, Adam Ottavino, Zach Britton and Aroldis Chapman forming Voltron at the end of games would certainly make life easier on the Yankees’ rotation, regardless of whether the team adds a starter from outside.

At 42-27, the Yankees don’t carry the AL’s best record – not by a long shot. Both Minnesota and Houston are five games ahead of the Yankees, and the Astros have a few of their own cornerstones mending from injuries in Jose Altuve, George Springer and Carlos Correa.

Let’s also not discount two of the Yankees’ division rivals, Tampa Bay and reigning World Series champion Boston. The Rays are just a half-game behind the Yankees and, for what it’s worth, own a far better run differential (plus-96 to plus-65). Furthermore, they could get back an important in-season reinforcement in budding ace Tyler Glasnow, out since May with a forearm strain, as early as next month.

The Red Sox don’t look as if they’ll approach last year’s 108-win outburst, and they have 5 1/2 games to make up on the Yankees. However, the sleeping giant in Boston may finally be waking up, having won four in a row. The Sox also own a plus-47 run differential that’s not quite befitting of their 38-34 record, and they’re another team with an injured starter (Nathan Eovaldi) who may return soon to complete its rotation.

Considering the presences of the Twins, Astros, Rays and Red Sox – not to mention a few other playoff contenders – the Yankees have their work cut out for them if they’re going to earn their first pennant since 2009. Plus, any or all of those teams could bolster themselves by the deadline. The Yankees, though, have managed one of the game’s top records thus far without many (or any) contributions from Encarnacion, Judge, Stanton – three players about to grace their lineup on a daily basis – and may see Severino and Betances return. With that in mind, is New York the favorite in the AL?

(Poll link for app users)

Who Will Win The NL Central?

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The National League Central looked like a three-team race at the beginning of the season, and not much has changed two months into the campaign. The Brewers, Cubs and Cardinals – the most hyped clubs in the division coming into the year – are at the top. After winning the division a year ago, the Brewers are 39-29, a half-game better than the Cubs. The Cardinals are a less impressive 33-33, five games back, though they’re certainly not out of the race. Meanwhile, the Reds and Pirates are eight and nine games behind, respectively. Neither looked likely to challenge for the NL Central at the outset of the season. They haven’t done anything to change anyone’s mind yet.

Led by reigning MVP right fielder Christian Yelich, brilliant free-agent acquisition Yasmani Grandal and offseason re-signing Mike Moustakas, the Brewers boast one of the majors’ most valuable groups of position players.  Their pitching hasn’t been as useful, on the other hand, as a rotation that was devoid of an ace entering the season has dealt with ineffectiveness and injuries throughout the year. However, the team still features elite reliever Josh Hader, with Jeremy Jeffress and Adrian Houser among those supporting him.

The Cubs’ position player mix has been even better than the Brewers’ this year, largely because Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras and David Bote have each offered strong production. Chicago’s rotation is probably better equipped, too, as Kyle Hendricks, Cole Hamels, Jose Quintana and Jon Lester are all proven commodities. Although, Yu Darvish hasn’t rebounded as hoped in his second year as a Cub. Darvish & Co. have handed off to a bullpen that hasn’t been lights-out this year, but it’s about to welcome all-time great closer Craig Kimbrel, whom the Cubs signed to a three-year, $43MM contract last week. Kimbrel would have been a match for the Brewers, making it all the more beneficial for the Cubs that they landed him (on paper, at least).

As for the Cardinals, they’ve fallen short of expectations after trading for ex-Diamondback Paul Goldschmidt, one of the premier position players in recent memory, and signing reliever Andrew Miller in the offseason. Both players have logged somewhat disappointing production to date, though Goldschmidt’s still an imposing presence and Miller has improved after a rocky start. Regardless, neither the Cardinals’ cast of hitters nor their relief corps is their most pressing issue. It’s their rotation, which hasn’t gotten high-end numbers from anyone. Jack Flaherty and Miles Mikolas have gone backward after impressive showings in 2018, while Dakota Hudson’s peripherals portend trouble. Adam Wainwright’s much closer to average than ace-like these days (and he’s now on the injured list with a hamstring issue), and nobody has nailed down the fifth spot in the Redbirds’ starting staff.

Considering the talent peppered throughout the Cardinals’ roster, it would be foolhardy to rule them out as potential division winners this season. Furthermore, with the trade deadline still yet to occur, St. Louis or anyone else in the division could put itself over the top with a shrewd acquisition(s) leading up to July 31. For now, though, the edge clearly belongs to the Cubs and the Brewers. FanGraphs currently projects the NL Central to finish in this order: Cubs (91-71), Brewers (87-75), Cardinals (83-79), Reds (78-84), Pirates (75-87). How do you expect it to shake out?

(Poll link for app users)

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