Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

MLBTR Polls

Poll: Predict The NL’s Wild-Card Teams

By | at

We’re in for a riveting couple of months in the National League, where the majority of franchises at least have a glimmer of a chance at earning a wild-card berth. Four teams are within 2 1/2 games of the currently Max Scherzer-less Nationals for the top spot, while another four are 2 1/2 or fewer behind the Phillies for the league’s fifth and final playoff position. And we can’t even fully rule out the Giants, Reds, Padres or Rockies – teams that range from four to 7 1/2 behind the Phillies. The odds are strongly against anyone from the San Francisco-Cincinnati-San Diego-Colorado quartet making a miracle run, but nobody expected the long-slumbering Mets to suddenly rip off 13 wins in 14 games to put themselves in the thick of the race.

Despite a season loaded with turmoil, the Mets’ out-of-nowhere stretch of brilliance has placed them just a game back of the Phillies. According to FanGraphs, New York now has the second-highest odds of the NL’s wild-card contenders, trailing only the Nationals. The Phillies, Cardinals, Brewers, Diamondbacks and Reds check in next, though FanGraphs ranks their chances significantly lower than those of the Nats and Mets. The only club from that group that’s not at least .500 is Cincinnati. The Reds are a subpar 54-58, but they’ve won seven of 10 and did just add a pair of notable pitchers in Trevor Bauer and Kevin Gausman (the Bauer acquisition came at the expense of outfielder Yasiel Puig, though). Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks lost the best pitcher from an already thin staff, Zack Greinke, whom they traded to the Astros at last week’s deadline. Arizona brought in a respectable back-end starter in Mike Leake, but he’s no Greinke.

Arguably no current wild-card contender did more to improve at the deadline than the Mets, who reeled in Marcus Stroman to complement ace Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler near the top of their rotation. The majority of the other teams mentioned above also made deadline additions, but Bauer aside, Stroman may be the highest-upside pickup on paper.

MLBTR’s Jeff Todd asked Tuesday if the Mets would end up in the postseason, though the majority of voters said no. But if not them, then which two clubs will make it from the NL’s crowded field (one that could also include the division-leading Braves and Cubs)?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Will The Mets Make A Wild Run?

By | at

An optimist might point out that the Mets now have the best record in baseball since they sent rookie slugger Pete Alonso out for an All-Star tater-mashing bonanza. A pessimist might counter that the club has mostly feasted on sub-par teams in doing so.

And a realist? He or she would focus on what’s truly notable about the New York club’s recent run: the fact that it puts the Mets back to within clear shouting distance of Wild Card position. These twenty-some-odd games didn’t really tell us much about the talent level of this team. They did change the math of the postseason picture.

Fangraphs’ projection-based postseason odds take a fairly favorable view of the Mets, valuing them as a .546 winning-percentage true-talent outfit. It is decidedly less enthused with the Cardinals, Phillies, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Reds, and Rockies … yet projects all of those clubs in the vicinity of .500. The view is notably dimmer on the Giants, but even in that case, we’re looking at a ~fifty game sample in which all kinds of good and bad fortune (run distribution, injuries, high-leverage happenstance, bad hops, missed calls, etc.) can and will intervene.

When reasonable go-forward expectations are so tightly clustered, the starting point in the standings matters quite a bit. That’s why the Mets and Phillies have near the same odds, by Fangraphs’ reckoning, with the former’s estimated true-talent advantage offset by the latter’s existing lead. The Mets have reeled in the pace-setters in the Wild Card race (less so the division), to the point that they’re one of the more plausible teams to land in the play-in game. (Per Fangraphs, the Citi Field denizens rank third among the five non-division-leaders that project to a 20%+ likelihood. 538 and especially B-Ref are less bullish on the Mets.)

Emerging from this jam-packed field will be a matter of exploiting small advantages, squeezing value from the dusty corners of the roster, making correct decisions and performing in the key moments. Do the Mets have an advantage with a loaded rotation? Or are they doomed by a leaky pen? Will their spunky young leaders continued to drive the bus, or struggle when they encounter late-season adjustments from newly attentive pitching staffs? Will GM Brodie Van Wagenen and manager Mickey Callaway pull the right levers and push the right buttons?

There are too many considerations to even begin listing them all. How do you think it’ll turn out? (Poll link for app users.)

Poll: Grading The Marcus Stroman Trade

By | at

After weeks of trade rumors centering on longtime Blue Jays starter Marcus Stroman, the club found a taker for the right-hander Sunday. Toronto sent him to New York, which many anticipated would happen, but not to the NYC-based team anyone was expecting. Instead of shipping Stroman to the World Series-contending Yankees, the Blue Jays dealt him to a Mets team that’s five games under .500 (50-55), six back of wild-card position and will have to jump over five other NL hopefuls down the stretch to earn a playoff spot.

In all likelihood, Stroman won’t be part of a postseason-bound franchise this season. Nevertheless, the Mets decided it was worthwhile to surrender two prospects from an already below-average farm system for Stroman. The Mets gave up Triple-A left-hander Anthony Kay and Single-A righty Simeon Woods Richardson to land Stroman and his remaining year and a half of team control. Now, the Mets could turn around by Wednesday’s trade deadline and make significant subtractions from the rotation Stroman just joined. They did send lefty Jason Vargas to the Phillies on Monday, but the Mets have two much bigger fish – righties Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler – who have frequented the rumor mill of late.

There shouldn’t be pressure to move Syndergaard, who’s under control through 2021. However, Syndergaard would surely bring back more in a trade than Stroman, enabling the Mets to somewhat reload their farm after taking more pieces from it Sunday. Likewise, it’s not a must for the Mets to wave goodbye to Wheeler. Although the 29-year-old’s a pending free agent, the Mets could keep him and try to work out an extension – which has at least come up as a possibility. Alternatively, the team could retain Wheeler through the season and issue him a qualifying offer if it’s dissatisfied with the trade offers that come in this week.

For now, the top of the Mets’ 2020 rotation looks like this: Jacob deGrom, Syndergaard, Stroman. On paper, that would be one of the game’s most formidable trios, but we may never see them in action together.

Unlike the Mets, the Blue Jays aren’t aiming to contend in 2020, which is a major reason why they traded Stroman. Expectations were Stroman would fetch at least one ballyhooed top 100 prospect in a trade, but that didn’t end up happening.

In Kay, the Blue Jays picked up a near-to-the-majors 24-year-old whom Baseball America (subscription required) ranked as the Mets’ fourth-best prospect prior to the trade. The Mets chose Kay 31st overall in the 2016 draft, but he dealt with an elbow injury that year and then underwent Tommy John surgery in 2017. As a result, Kay didn’t pitch competitively for the organization until last year. However, with help from a fastball that can reach 96 mph, Kay has quickly ascended since debuting in 2018. He thrived at the Double-A level to begin this season before earning a promotion to the top of the minors. Kay has struggled in his first action at Triple-A, though, having put up a 6.61 ERA/6.22 FIP with 7.47 K/9, 3.16 BB/9 and a 30.2 percent groundball rate in 31 1/3 innings. He is now the Blue Jays’ fifth-ranked prospect in MLB.com’s estimation, which posits that Kay could find his niche as a “mid-rotation-type starter” in the bigs.

Meanwhile, MLB.com places Woods Richardson seventh among Toronto’s prospects. Just 18, a year removed from going in the second round of the draft, Woods Richardson has logged spectacular strikeout and walk numbers (11.14 K/9, 1.95 BB/9) with a 4.25 ERA/2.56 FIP and a 49.3 percent grounder rate in 20 starts and 78 1/3 innings at the Single-A level this season. He possesses “premium stuff and mound demeanor to spare,” according to BA, which rated him sixth among Mets farmhands.

Although they’re not premier prospects at the moment, there is optimism in regards to Kay and Woods Richardson evolving into long-term major leaguers. The Mets opted for the surer bet in Stroman, however, and are now evidently hoping he’ll help them to a playoff berth in 2020 (if not a miraculous run this season). But it’s up for debate whether New York should have traded for Stroman, especially considering the team may now weaken the rotation it just strengthened by parting with Syndergaard and-or Wheeler.

How do you think the two teams made out in this deal? (Poll links for app users)

Poll: Trading Felipe Vazquez

By | at

Losers of eight of 10 since the All-Star break, the Pirates’ already slim playoff hopes have taken a beating over the past week-plus. At 46-53, they’re six games out of a wild-card spot and 7 1/2 behind the National Central-leading Cubs. Only three NL teams have worse records than the Pirates, who will have to jump seven clubs in order to earn a playoff position. It’s probably safe to say they’re going to extend their postseason drought to four years in 2019.

This happens to be the fourth season in Pittsburgh for reliever Felipe Vazquez, though he’s obviously not to blame for the team’s ongoing struggles. In fact, since the Pirates acquired the flamethrowing left-hander from the Nationals in a deal for veteran reliever Mark Melancon in July 2016, Vazquez has evolved into one of the majors’ premier late-game options. Vazquez was downright exceptional over the previous two seasons, but this may go down as his best campaign to date. The 28-year-old has pitched to a dominant 1.91 ERA/2.02 FIP with 14.03 K/9 against 2.34 BB/9 in 42 1/3 innings, adding 21 saves on 22 tries for good measure.

Considering Vazquez’s brilliance, not to mention the Pirates’ woes, there is a case they should consider parting with him before the July 31 deadline. The fact that Vazquez is controllable over the next few seasons for team-friendly salaries would help enable the Pirates to land an enormous return for him. The club shrewdly signed the strikeout artist formerly known as Felipe Rivero to a four-year, $22MM extension months before the 2018 season. He’s under wraps through at least 2021 as a result, though the way his career’s going, it looks like a sure thing right now that his employer will exercise $10MM club options in 2022 and ’23. Granted, those decisions are a long distance off, and considering the volatility of relievers, Vazquez could turn into a pumpkin by then. Perhaps that’s another reason to sell high on Vazquez now. But general manager Neal Huntington doesn’t seem to agree. Huntington has shot down the possibility of a Vazquez trade twice this month, noting both times that he expects the two-time All-Star to be indispensable to the Pirates’ next playoff team.

“Our expectation and anticipation is that Felipe will be closing out playoff games, be it this year or in the future with us,” Huntington said on July 1.

Unlike back then, the Pirates’ season now looks as if it’s close to flatlining. Nevertheless, Huntington remains steadfast in his desire to keep Vazquez, having said this past weekend that “we always have to entertain ways to make this organization — and ideally this current club — better. Sometimes you make the future clubs better, but we fully anticipate Felipe will be closing the next playoff games that we’re a part of.”

It certainly wouldn’t be indefensible on Pittsburgh’s part to retain Vazquez, who’s magnificent and affordable (all the more important for a low-spending franchise). On the other hand, Vazquez would probably be the best relief trade chip in the game if the Pirates were to shop him over the next week. What should they do?

(Poll link for app users)

Trade Candidate Faceoff: Bauer Vs. Stroman Vs. Minor

By | at

Indians right-hander Trevor Bauer, Blue Jays righty Marcus Stroman and Rangers lefty Mike Minor have been among the most popular names in the rumor mill in advance of the July 31 trade deadline. All three are quality starters who are under control through 2020, so a slew of contenders have predictably shown serious interest in each of them. But who’s the most desirable of the trio?

Perhaps it’s the 28-year-old Bauer, who started his major league career in 2012 with the Diamondbacks. The third pick in the 2011 draft, Bauer was something of a can’t-miss prospect coming up. It took him longer than expected to find his footing in the majors, though, and it didn’t happen in Arizona. It occurred in Cleveland, which acquired Bauer in a three-team trade prior to the 2013 season. Bauer was a useful starter with the Indians from his first full season in 2014 through 2017, but he truly put it all together last year. Across 175 1/3 innings, Bauer notched a 2.21 ERA/2.44 FIP with 11.34 K/9 and 2.93 BB/9 en route to a sixth-place finish in the AL Cy Young voting.

Bauer probably won’t wind up in Cy Young contention this season, though he has turned in another above-average performance. No major league starter has amassed more innings than Bauer, who has delivered 144 2/3 frames of 3.67 ERA/4.29 FIP pitching with 10.58 K/9 against 3.48 BB/9. But home runs have been a major problem for Bauer compared to last year, when he yielded them on just 6.2 percent of fly balls. The rate has shot to 15.2 this season, while Bauer’s groundball percentage has shrunk from 44.5 to 38.5. He is, however, averaging a personal-best 94.8 mph on his four-seam fastball.

Stroman, also 28, has never encountered trouble racking up grounders in the majors. Since debuting in 2014, Stroman has posted a tremendous 59.7 percent grounder rate, including 57.9 this year. The ability to induce worm burners has long made Stroman effective at preventing runs, even though he’s hardly a strikeout-heavy pitcher. Stroman has fanned just over seven per nine in his career and this season, and has also logged a sub-3.00 BB/9 during those spans. The package of skills has helped Stroman to a praiseworthy 3.06 ERA/3.60 FIP in 117 2/3 innings this season.

Minor, 31, fared nicely as a Braves starter from 2010-14, but injuries knocked his career off course thereafter and kept him out of action from 2015-16. When he returned the next season with the Royals, Minor was a reliever – and an excellent one at that. But after signing a three-year, $28MM contract with the Rangers going into 2018, he returned to a starting role. The results were closer to average than exceptional then, though Minor has made notable strides since. His ERA’s an outstanding 2.86, albeit with a less inspiring 4.08 FIP, in 129 innings. Minor fanned 10 Astros and walked one in seven innings of a losing effort Friday, improving his K/9 to 9.14 and his BB/9 to 3.14. Although Minor hurt his cause by allowing four home runs, he has generally kept the long ball at bay this season.

It’s clear Bauer, Stroman and Minor are all appealing starters, but one can’t simply compare their performances when talking about them as trade candidates. Their salaries also play a key part in the discussion. Bauer’s easily the most expensive of the group this year ($13MM) and could end up in the $18MM to $20MM range during his final trip to arbitration over the winter. Minor comes in next at $9.5MM, but another $9.5MM salary is already etched in stone for 2020. Stroman’s making $7.4MM this season, though he’ll certainly join Bauer in getting a raise in his last year of arbitration.

Weighing all the factors – performance, age, price and what you think each would cost in a trade – which of these hurlers would you most want to acquire in the next week and a half?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: What Should The Giants Do At The Deadline?

By | at

So … with the Giants now within 2.5 games of a Wild Card spot after winning twelve of their past fourteen games, should they halt a long-anticipated summer sell-off? There’s obvious appeal to making a push with a veteran-laden team, but also no small amount of risk in foregoing an opportune and much-needed chip-cashing opportunity on the trade market.

It’s awfully hard to pull the rug out from under a team that was built to win. The ballclub was constructed for contention by the prior front office regime, but seemed badly in need of a reset after two-straight miserable campaigns. Maybe it has taken longer than hoped, and hasn’t quite happened in the manner anticipated, but perhaps we’re finally seeing the fruit of the labors of deposed GM Bobby Evans.

There are some signs of recently improved play from the roster. Over the past thirty days, Giants hitters have paced the majors with 162 runs scored while producing a collective 111 wRC+ (11th in baseball). In that same span, the pitching staff has been a top-ten unit by measure of fWAR. The Giants’ very good and judiciously deployed bullpen has led all of baseball in net win-percentage added this season, which helps explain how the team has strongly outperformed win expectations based upon Pythagorean (+3) or BaseRuns (+6) evaluation. Perhaps there’s some magic yet in a dugout commanded for one final time by Bruce Bochy.

On the other hand, it’s easy to get carried away with recency bias. There really isn’t much evidence of underlying changes in the talent level on the roster that would suggest this is a much better ballclub than its 47-49 record would suggest. There are still five teams ahead of the Giants in the Wild Card picture, many of which also have legitimate chances at winning their divisions and will be improving at the deadline. The Giants have no hope of catching the Dodgers in the NL West and don’t appear situated to make notable additions, even if they do hold existing veterans. Fangraphs’ playoff odds calculator still places the Giants as the second-to-least likely team in the National League to appear in the playoffs.

Plus, the San Francisco farm system — despite making some improvements of late — could clearly stand to be supplemented. We’ve been talking for months about the increasingly appealing set of trade pieces the Giants can bring to the market this summer. Our recent ranking of the top sixty deadline assets is littered with San Francisco roster members. In particular, the Giants possess many of the top pure rental players and all but control the bullpen market. They could also have some chances at moving big contracts to help free the near-future books.

All things considered, it’s a tough test for president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, who’ll either have to sell the selling to the fanbase or risk hampering the rebuilding effort. What do you think he ought to do? (Poll link for app users.)

Poll: Aroldis Chapman’s Opt-Out Clause

By | at

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported Wednesday morning that Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman will become one of the most notable names on the free-agent market in the offseason. Chapman still has two years and $30MM left on the five-year, $86MM contract he signed entering 2016, but a source told Rosenthal the left-hander is “one million percent” likely to exercise his opt-out clause and revisit the open market in a few months. Chapman subsequently denied the report, but the still-great fireballer does seem like a realistic candidate to outdo the remainder of his current contract in free agency. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes expects Chapman to opt out, having ranked the Cuban flamethrower sixth in his most recent list of potential free agents.

There may be an argument for Chapman to stay put, though, if you consider the less-than-ideal trip to free agency fellow longtime standout closer Craig Kimbrel took this past season. Kimbrel, thanks in part to a qualifying offer, went until early June without a contract before finally signing with the Cubs. But Kimbrel showed real signs of decline in 2018, and despite that, the 31-year-old still signed a three-year, $43MM contract worth a substantial amount more than what’s left on Chapman’s pact.

Chapman, who will turn 32 next February, remains a game-ending force. The former Red and Cub has lost a bit of velocity this season, but he’s still throwing near 100 mph. He’s also the owner of a 2.45 ERA/2.09 FIP with 13.01 K/9, 2.95 BB/9, a 45.8 percent groundball rate and 25 saves in 29 chances across 36 2/3 innings this year. Neither lefties nor righties have done much to solve Chapman, who has yielded a .257 weighted on-base average/.263 expected wOBA in 2019.

Not only has Chapman thrived again this year, but no other reliever would offer a better track record than him in free agency. Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen could opt out of the two years and $38MM left on his contract, but he has been more vulnerable than usual this season. Giants closer and impending free agent Will Smith has been tremendous this year, though he can’t match Chapman’s long-term excellence. Meanwhile, Chapman’s teammate Dellin Betances has enjoyed a phenomenal career as a setup man, yet multiple injuries have prevented him from pitching at all this season. The rest of the impending free-agent class doesn’t approach Chapman.

If there’s one factor that could significantly tamp down Chapman’s earning power, it’s a qualifying offer. Teams didn’t want to cough up a massive amount of money and surrender a draft pick for Kimbrel or starter Dallas Keuchel, two stars who sat without a job until last month. Chapman would also have a QO and draft compensation hanging over his head, as there’s no chance the Yankees would allow him to leave without getting something in return. But it’s improbable that would be enough to stop Chapman from giving free agency another whirl during the upcoming winter. What do you expect him to do?

(Poll link for app users)

Poll: The Reds’ Deadline Approach

By | at

Take one look at the Reds’ record – 43-48 – and it’s difficult to envision them as a team in position to buy prior to the July 31 trade deadline. On the other hand, the Reds certainly aren’t out of the playoff race, trailing the NL Central-leading Cubs by 5 1/2 games and sitting 3 1/2 back of a wild-card spot. Cincinnati is also in possession of the NL’s fifth-best run differential (plus-33) and a more-than-respectable 49-42 Pythagorean record.

Despite the team’s .473 winning percentage and last-place status in its division, is a sleeping giant about to awaken in Cincy? That seems to be the hope for president of baseball operations Dick Williams and general manager Nick Krall, who have suggested over the past week that the Reds are more inclined to buy than sell before the month is out. Whether they should is another matter. The Reds will have to leapfrog four teams and overcome a significant deficit to jump the Cubs if they’re going to win their division this year. It seems unrealistic. They obviously have a better chance to secure a wild-card berth, but that would be a daunting task with eight teams ahead of them for the NL’s fifth and final playoff position.

Fortunately for the Reds’ front office, the club’s schedule during the two weeks leading up to the deadline could provide more clarity on whether to buy, sell or stand pat. The Reds are amid a three-game set against the Cubs, whom they beat Monday, and then have series against four other teams with better records (the Cardinals, Brewers, Rockies and Pirates). Their slate’s similarly imposing after the deadline, with the Braves, Angels, Cubs, Nationals, Cardinals, Padres and Pirates set to serve as almost all of the Reds’ August opponents. Furthermore, the Marlins, Mariners and Mets are the only teams left on the Reds’ schedule through year’s end that aren’t legitimately in playoff contention at the moment.

The lack of tomato cans remaining on the Reds’ schedule may make selling over the next two weeks easier, as could the short-term pieces on their roster who could bring something back in trades. Outfielder Yasiel Puig – who started the year poorly but has been on a blistering pace since the beginning of June – as well as starters Tanner Roark and Anthony DeSclafani, second baseman Scooter Gennett, utilityman Derek Dietrich, shortstop Jose Iglesias, and relievers David Hernandez and Jared Hughes are all potential trade chips who will be free agents either after this season or the 2020 campaign. With the possible exception of Puig, no one in that group seems to stand much of receiving qualifying offer from the Reds when his team control expires. As such, it could behoove the Reds to move as many of them as possible right now for as much as teams are willing to pay.

On the flip side, no member of that bunch is a premium short-term piece (again, with the possible exception of Puig). Therefore, maybe you’re of the mind they should keep what they have, if not add to it, in lieu of selling vets for minimal returns and actually take a run at a playoff berth. For a franchise that’s staring at its sixth consecutive season without playoff baseball, perhaps there’s something to be said for making an against-the-odds effort to contend. The Reds tried to up their chances over the winter when they acquired Puig, Roark and others, though the win-loss results surely haven’t gone to the team’s liking thus far. Nevertheless, they don’t seem ready to say die as the 2019 deadline approaches.

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: What Should The Braves Do With Ender Inciarte?

By | at

The Braves are clicking on just about every cylinder at the moment, allowing the team to maintain a healthy advantage in the division even as the Nats have mounted a charge. While the Atlanta organization is no doubt preparing to make some pitching additions in the coming weeks, the position player mix seems mostly to be in fine working order.

Typically, a veteran returning from an injury makes for welcome news in advance of the trade deadline. But much of the Atlanta fan base seems to view the impending return of outfielder Ender Inciarte — who’ll be back as soon as Thursday — with something less like excitement and more like dread.

We’ve been through this topic before, but that was a month-and-a-half back. Some things have changed. Austin Riley looked at the time like a breakout star. But let’s check in on the youngster’s wRC+ by month: 186 (May), 96 (June), 32 (July). Needless to say, that’s not an optimal arc for a contending team. Switch-hitting utilityman Johan Camargo has perked up in the meantime, though he’s also the only position player other than Riley that is a conceivable candidate to be optioned down. Charlie Culberson and Matt Joyce occupy fairly limited roles, but has each been superb. Of course, Inciarate has also been in action of late on his rehab assignment. Let’s just say that his struggles from the early portion of the season have carried over. He has produced just seven singles and three walks in forty trips to the plate.

It’s possible to imagine quite a few possible roster permutations. There are arguments on every side of the discussion. Optioning Riley may or may not be good for his development, but it would mean taking one of the club’s highest-upside bats out of the MLB picture for at least a stretch. Sending Camargo down makes some sense on paper, but he’s an immensely useful player if he’s back to being an above-average hitter. It’s somewhat easier to imagine the club parting with Joyce than Culberson, but the 34-year-old Joyce carries a .296/.400/.494 slash with 14 walks against just 18 strikeouts. Inciarte could be jettisoned, or traded for whatever the team can get, but that’d mean selling quite low on a player who has been such a solid presence and still makes long-term roster sense. (Inciarte has more than five years of service time and therefore may not be optioned without his consent.)

There’s always the option of demoting or designating a reliever, but that’d likely only be a temporary measure, since the Braves are already carrying a four-man bench. Likewise, a temporary move involving one of the reserve players (optioning Camargo or finding a phantom injury list stint) would presumably only delay the inevitable decision. There’ll ultimately be a choice, even if it’s kicked down the road by a few weeks.

How do you think the Braves should handle the return of Inciarte? (Poll link for app users.)

Is It Time For The Mets To Trade Noah Syndergaard?

By | at

Judging solely by Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard’s decline in performance this year, this summer doesn’t look like the time to trade the 26-year-old. But going by Syndergaard’s pre-2019 numbers and the amount of club control he has remaining, Thor would warrant a haul leading up to the trade deadline. For almost the entire season thus far, there haven’t been rumblings on MLBTR’s pages about a possible Syndergaard swap. The rumor mill has begun picking up since Tuesday, however.

With the deadline exactly three weeks away, the Brewers, Astros and Padres are among those who have demonstrated interest in Syndergaard. It’s probably fair to say even more teams will eye Syndergaard, if they haven’t already, though the Mets don’t seem as if they’re shopping him aggressively.

Little has gone right this year for New York, which has stumbled to a record (40-50) that betters only the Marlins’ mark in the National League. Contention’s highly unlikely for this year’s Mets, but unlike with impending free-agent starter Zack Wheeler, they shouldn’t necessarily feel urgency to part with Syndergaard this summer.

Syndergaard, who’s making an appealing $6MM salary, is eligible for arbitration two more times after 2019. Therefore, the Mets could keep him in hopes they and he bounce back during that two-year span. Alternatively, the club could retain Syndergaard through this season, see if he returns to his typical form in the second half and then solicit offers during the winter. At that point, teams unable to win what should be a hotly contested derby for free agency’s top starter, Gerrit Cole, might view Syndergaard as an enticing consolation prize.

On a per-inning basis, Syndergaard has been a Cole-caliber producer since he broke into the league. Between his 2015 debut and last year, Syndergaard parlayed his high-90s heat into an ace-like 2.93 ERA/2.66 FIP with 9.95 K/9, 2.01 BB/9 and a 49.5 percent groundball rate over 518 innings. But injuries limited him at times, including during a 154 1/3-inning campaign in 2018, and they’ve reared their head again this year. Syndergaard missed time earlier in the season with a hamstring strain, though he returned after missing about two weeks. He has not, however, logged a quality start in any of his three outings since. Overall, Syndergaard has paled in comparison to his 2015-18 self, having notched a 4.68 ERA/3.98 FIP, 8.6 K/9 and 2.56 BB/9, and a 46.7 percent grounder mark across 105 2/3 frames.

While Syndergaard’s continuing to throw hard, his aforementioned K/9, career-low chase rate, career-high contact rate and personal-worst swinging-strike percentage show he’s fooling fewer hitters than ever. On the other hand, Syndergaard’s still a Statcast darling whose 34-point spread between his weighted on-base average/xwOBA against (.314/.280) suggest bad luck has played a part in his issues preventing runs. The fact that Syndergaard’s tasked with pitching in front of a dreadful defense also hasn’t done him any favors.

All things considered, the Mets are facing an interesting decision on Syndergaard as zero hour closes in on July 31. If the Mets were to make Syndergaard available by then, he’d perhaps end up as the most popular player on the block. What should they do?

(Poll link for app users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top