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List Of 2016 Super Two Qualifiers

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Presented below is the list of players who have qualified for Super Two status for arbitration purposes this year. (Service time in parentheses.) As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently tweeted, the service time cutoff is 2.130. You can find arbitration salary projections for these players right here.

Click here to read more about how the Super Two concept works. Note that, as the link shows, the originally projected service time cutoff moved down as things played out over the course of the season. That brought some notable names into early arbitration qualification — namely, Calhoun and Rendon — which could have a big impact on their earning power in potential extension scenarios.

It’s also important to bear in mind that several of the players listed above have already agreed to long-term extensions: Gyorko, Lagares, and Archer. Notably, the size of the guarantee provided by Archer’s contract is dependent upon his Super Two status. By reaching it (as had been expected), he keeps a $25.5MM overall guarantee. That total would have been reduced to $20MM otherwise.

That contract structure reflects the importance of reaching Super Two status. Doing so not only bumps a player’s salary a year early, but sets a higher floor for future paydays.

World Series Notes: Royals, Mets, Rosters, Drafts

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Very few pundits saw the Mets or (despite being defending AL champs) Royals reaching the Fall Classic, yet both teams are now preparing for Game 1 of the World Series.  Here’s some info on both teams, looking back at how they got to the brink of a championship…

  • It took a while for Dayton Moore’s rebuilding plan to show results, but the Royals GM tells ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick that he sees past mistakes as learning experiences that helped he and the club shape the current winning roster.  Canny trades and free agent signings within the last year were a big part of Kansas City’s success, yet the fact that so many of the Royals are homegrown prospects who have spent years playing together is seen as a positive by manager Ned Yost.  “They came up as a core, and they won championships in Double-A and Triple-A together….Having them experience that over the last five or six years, it just gives them a certain comfort level when you get into this type of position. They know each other. They all have the same goals and the same dreams and the same values. It just makes for a closer team,” Yost said.
  • Over half of the Royals’ ALCS roster didn’t play for the team in last year’s World Series, The Associated Press’ Dave Skretta writes, a somewhat under-the-radar overhaul that mostly focused on adding a lot of new pitchers.
  • Given how both teams looked to rebuild though young talent, it’s no surprise that many former blue-chip prospects are now playing key roles for the Royals and Mets, MLB.com’s Jim Callis notes.  He lists the top 15 players in this World Series based on their original prospect status, with Alex Gordon leading the way.
  • Game 1 will fall almost exactly five years after the day Sandy Alderson was hired as the Mets’ GM, and ESPN’s Adam Rubin looks at the tough road Alderson had to navigate, especially given the financial limitations on the franchise due to the Wilpon family’s losses in the Bernie Madoff scandal.  The Mets’ big deadline trades and the Nationals’ surprising collapse opened the door for this season’s NL East title, and Rubin notes that Alderson also laid groundwork in the form of the Zack Wheeler-for-Carlos Beltran trade in 2011 and the deal that brought Noah Syndergaard and Travis d’Arnaud for R.A. Dickey in early 2013.  Alderson was also helped by several young players drafted under former GM Omar Minaya who are now franchise cornerstones.

East Notes: Marlins, Jennings, Harvey, Red Sox

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After being told he would not retain his job as manager, Dan Jennings was set to return to the Marlins last week to resume GM duties. However, Jennings had questions about his current role and responsibilities that president David Samson couldn’t immediately answer, as Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes.  Samson has asked Jennings to stay home while he discusses the situation with owner Jeffrey Loria.  The Marlins haven’t pulled their offer for Jennings to return as GM, Jackson writes, and he and Loria are expected to talk in the coming days.  Jennings might have less influence in the front office than he did before, and that’s a result of Loria “listening to more voices.”  In addition to president/baseball operations Michael Hill, farm system chief Marc Delpiano and execs Mike Berger and Jeff McAvoy also have sway.

Here’s more out of the East divisions..

  • More from Jackson, who writes that the Marlins’ payroll of $68MM “is expected to rise slightly” in 2016.  In 2015, Miami had the lowest payroll in baseball.
  • With whispers that the Mets will listen this winter on offers for their top three starters, Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald writes that it’s “not impossible” that New Englander Matt Harvey will end up in the Red Sox’s rotation next season.  Of course, there was more speculation surrounding Harvey’s Mets future during the innings-limit controversy and it’s hard to picture a deal happening as he gets set to take the hill in Game 1 of the World Series.
  • Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times opines that it’s fair to wonder if Andrew Friedman erred in not bringing Joe Maddon to the Dodgers after both men left the Rays.  The Dodgers, of course, are searching for their next manager after parting ways with Don Mattingly.

Cafardo On Murphy, Price, Davis, Cueto

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In today’s column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe spoke with eight major league officials about the players trending up and trending down as free agency approaches.  It probably won’t surprise you to learn that the list of players trending in the right direction starts with Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy.

“Obviously, he’s not going to be as hot as he’s been in the postseason, but he plays positions where his power plays well,” an American League GM told Cafardo. “There are teams like the Dodgers and Yankees who need a second baseman. Others, like the Angels, need a third baseman, where he also plays. He’s going to be sought-after and get a five-year deal at around $75MM. Maybe more.”

Murphy, who can also play at first base, would also have appeal for the attractive to the Orioles, Astros, Padres, and Tigers, Cafardo writes.

Here’s more from today’s column..

  • The feeling is that a seven-year, $210MM deal for David Price would be fair, Cafardo writes, though some are concerned that Price won’t live up to that kind of deal unless he goes somewhere that he’s comfortable. The incumbent Blue Jays could be that place, but the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Cubs are also listed as possibilities.  Price, 30, pitched to a 2.45 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 32 regular season starts for the Tigers and Blue Jays this past season.
  • The group of eight anonymous scouts, managers, and GMs polled by Cafardo would not want to give Orioles bopper Chris Davis more than a five-year deal.  Of course, a team out there very well could. “In the heat of the negotiations and fearing someone else will get him, this will likely get beyond what everybody wants. Scott Boras is the agent, so we may be looking at seven years,” one scout remarked.  Recently, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes profiled the two-time home run king and estimated that he’ll be in line for a six-year, $144MM pact.
  • Johnny Cueto had a rough second half after being traded to the Royals and one National League GM told Cafardo that a “few teams have scratched him off their list.”  Still, that GM estimates that Cueto can net a Jon Lester-type $155MM deal.  Recently, we learned that the Red Sox are mulling a serious push for Cueto.  The Marlins also like Cueto, but financial constraints will probably hold them back in that pursuit.
  • One GM told Cafardo that he wouldn’t give Royals outfielder Alex Gordon anything more than a three-year deal at $36MM-$38MM.  In addition to KC, Cafardo recently listed the Indians, Orioles, Mets, Tigers, and possibly the Red Sox as potential fits.
  • Nationals hurler Jordan Zimmermann didn’t have a great season, but he was listed by Cafardo as a player whose arrow is pointing upwards.  One NL scout praised Zimmermann’s work ethic and toughness.  At the end of the regular season, Zimmermann sounded like a player who knows that he’ll be changing teams.
  • One AL GM envisions Blue Jays pitcher Marco Estrada attracting attention from “six or seven teams” who could offer up a “four- or five-year deal in the $12MM-$15MM [per year] range.”  Last month, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk checked in on Estrada’s free agent stock.  The right-hander posted a 3.13 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 across 28 starts and six relief appearances in 2015.
  • Cafardo’s panel indicated that Scott Kazmir could get a three-year deal this offseason, but at a reduced rate because of his struggles with the Astros down the stretch.  The group of eight officials sees Kazmir getting $10-$12MM AAV over a three year period.  The Tigers are among the clubs with interest in the veteran left-hander, though Kazmir has also expressed a desire to return to Houston.
  • At least two teams have their top advisers and scouts looking at Rich Hill’s last four starts with the Red Sox to see if his emergence in 2015 is for real.  One AL scout who has done his homework on the left-hander praised the hurler for his confidence.
  • Cafardo identified the Braves, Dodgers, Rays, Astros, and Mariners as teams that could have interest in Orioles catcher Matt Wieters.  Of course, his market will be impacted by whether or not he receives a qualifying offer.  The Rangers will be among the teams with interest, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, but only if he does come with a QO attached.  In a recent MLBTR poll, 60% of readers said that the O’s should give Wieters a QO.

Quick Hits: Cespedes, Cubs, Allison

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Mets GM Sandy Alderson traded for Yoenis Cespedes because he believed the club needed another hitter, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Alderson originally focused on Brewers outfielder Carlos Gomez and Reds outfielder Jay Bruce because they came with additional club control. However, the Gomez deal was nixed after the Mets reviewed his physical, and the Reds pulled Bruce off the trade block on July 31. Alderson preferred Justin Upton of the Padres, but they refused to back down from demands for pitcher Michael Fulmer, shortstop Amed Rosario, and others. While Alderson still preferred a higher OBP hitter, Cespedes had the best acquisition cost. Per Alderson, if the Mets didn’t acquire a top bat, “people will point to the fact that we were not all in.”

  • The Cubs will be a trendy pick to win the National League next season, writes Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun Times. However, Theo Epstein and crew have a difficult road ahead of them. Within their own division, they’ll have to compete with the always successful Cardinals and recently excellent Pirates. The Mets formidable pitching staff will return next year, the Giants have a way of appearing every even year, and the Dodgers spend the most money in baseball. Unexpected opponents could also jump to the forefront. As Epstein admits, “We have to put ourselves in a position where we have a chance to be great. So we can win the division and not have to go through the coin flip of being in the wild-card game. I’m not saying you can always get there. Some things are beyond your control.” To be great, the club probably needs to add an ace. A veteran to help stabilize the young lineup could also be useful.
  • The Mariners have promoted Tom Allison to head of both professional and amateur scouting, tweets John Manuel of Baseball America. Allison had previously served as Seattle’s head of pro scouting so the promotion is an expansion of duties. Per Manuel, Allison had a strong run as an amateur scout with the Diamondbacks from 2007 through 2010. He also worked with the Mets and Brewers in a scouting capacity from 1996 through 2006.

NL East Notes: Benedict, Braves, Mets

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The Marlins have hired Pirates special assistant Jim Benedict to become their new vice president, pitching development, as MLB.com’s Adam Berry notes. The news is more significant than it might initially seem — Benedict and Bucs pitching coach Ray Searage have been widely credited with powering the pitching program that helped the Pirates get good results from a number of unknown or unappreciated hurlers in the last several season. Benedict is the Marlins’ second significant hire from the Bucs’ front office this fall — they previously tabbed another special assistant, Marc DelPiano, to serve as their farm director. Here’s more from the NL East.

  • The Braves face plenty of uncertainty in their bullpen and will likely pursue relief help this offseason, writes MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. Arodys Vizcaino will pitch in the late innings, and Chris Withrow (elbow) will likely be ready as well. But Jason Grilli and Shae Simmons are both making their back from injury and will be question marks, while Mike Foltynewicz could wind up in the rotation. That means the Braves could be in the market for righties like Joakim Soria, Jonathan Broxton, Tyler Clippard and Darren O’Day, along with lefties like Tony Sipp.
  • The Mets turned their season around as their lineup began to come together in late July, ESPN’s Jayson Stark writes. Obviously, much of that was their trade for Yoenis Cespedes, but manager Terry Collins also points to their additions of Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson, which happened a week earlier. “[T]hat, to me, is when we started turning things around,” Collins says. Uribe and Johnson helped somewhat, but it wasn’t just that — it was that it became clear within the clubhouse that the Mets’ front office was willing to supplement its team.

NL East Notes: Phillies, Reed, Blevins, Collins, Conforto, Braves, Janssen

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The Phillies announced today that the team has hired Rick Kranitz as bullpen coach and John McLaren as catching coach. Those two veteran baseball men represent the first hirings for newly-named skipper Pete Mackanin. Per the announcement, the club has already reached agreement on deals with two incumbents — hitting coach Steve Henderson and pitching coach Bob McClure — and has also asked bench coach Larry Bowa and first base coach Juan Samuel to return.

Here are a few more notes from the NL East:

  • The Mets have more important matters at hand, but offseason decision aren’t far away. One such call involves reliever Addison Reed, who Marc Carig of Newsday says could be tendered a contract through arbitration. The club initially expected only to keep him for the present season after adding him over the summer, with his salary ($4.9MM this year) representing an obstacle, but Reed has performed quite well since coming to New York.
  • Another relatively recent Mets bullpen trade addition who could be retained is lefty Jerry Blevins, per Carig. Though he missed most of the season due to injury, the organization has “some interest” in a reunion, depending upon how he progresses in his rehab from his most recent forearm fracture.
  • Mets manager Terry Collins has told friends he’ll most likely be hoping for a two-year contract this winter, Jon Heyman of CBSSports reports (in a notes column filled with other bits of information). There’s little doubt at this point that he’ll be asked back, and might have enough pull to demand a longer deal, but Collins seemingly does not intend to remain in the demanding role for too much longer.
  • The Mets intend to use Michael Conforto as their everyday left fielder next year, says Heyman. That’s no surprise, given his productivity thus far, but it speaks to the difficulty of clearing the way for a reunion with Yoenis Cespedes. New York also has Curtis Granderson, Michael Cuddyer, and Juan Lagares under contract for next year (or beyond).
  • While the Braves are expecting somewhat less turnover this winter than last, the front office is nevertheless working hard to get ready for the offseason, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman writes. “We feel we’re going to be significantly better going into 2016 than we were going into 2015,” said president of baseball operations John Hart. “We have a lot of work to do as we go through the winter. We don’t know how it’s all going to play out. When we go into our meetings, it’s not like we’re facing no dollars, no options and no flexibility. Also with some of the deals we’ll be making, we won’t be trying to move away from bad contracts. That in itself will put us more in the open field running.”
  • Nationals reliever Casey Janssen says that he expects a turnaround in 2016, as James Wagner of the Washington Post reports. While Wagner says that it’s unlikely the club will pick up its end of a $7MM mutual option, Janssen says he believes “you can make a case either way” for how the team should proceed. He took his share of the blame for a rough year, but noted that he often faced heavy usage. Looking ahead, Janssen expressed optimism. “There’s no doubt in my mind I’m gonna have a great season next year,” he said. “You take out the three or four games that I didn’t pitch my best I had a solid year after that. Obviously you can’t take those away. Those are real. But, there’s no doubt in my mind that the passion is there and the ability is there. There’s going to be a ton of drive there for me this offseason to not let that happen again and get back to what I know and get back to be the pitcher that I know I can be.”

New York Notes: Murphy, Cespedes, Tanaka, Wheeler

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While some have said the Mets to be undecided on whether or not they’ll make a qualifying offer to Daniel Murphy, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports that following a Herculean postseason performance, the Mets are now planning on offering the one-year, $15.8MM sum to their second baseman. Murphy homered in his fifth straight postseason game last night, tying an MLB record, and he figures to have a nice shot at a four-year deal on the open market with or without the offer. The Mets, of course, will receive a compensatory draft pick if he signs elsewhere after rejecting the qualifying offer. With Dilson Herrera and Wilmer Flores both in the organization, it still seems unlikely that they’ll make a serious push to re-sign Murphy at full market value. (Mets fans may also be interested in the intro to Heyman’s column, where he breaks down the roster and examines how each member was acquired by either former GM Omar Minaya or present GM Sandy Alderson.)

A few more notes from the Big Apple…

  • From that same piece, Heyman writes that the early belief is that the Yankees won’t be making a run at free-agent outfielder Yoenis Cespedes this offseason. That’s not exactly a surprise considering their full outfield — Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran are all under contracts in 2016 — though the possibility that the team could move the final year of Beltran’s contract and pursue outfield upgrades has been kicked around by pundits already. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined the possibility of moving an outfielder in his Yankees Offseason Outlook.
  • Masahiro Tanaka underwent elbow surgery to remove a bone spur yesterday, and GM Brian Cashman told reporters that the timing of the operation is ideal, as Tanaka’s total rehab process will take about three months (Twitter link via Tyler Kepner of the New York Times). That timeline should give the Yankees’ ace ample time to recover prior to Spring Training of 2016.
  • Another injured New York hurler, the Mets’ Zack Wheeler, is hoping to be ready to return to the big league rotation early next June, he said in a recent appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link). A returning Wheeler would, theoretically, join Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and/or Jon Niese in an outstanding rotation. Of course, injuries or trades could alter that outlook in the next eight to nine months. Wheeler himself was already said to be involved in trade talks for both Carlos Gomez and Jay Bruce in July.

AL East Notes: Chen, Britton, Murphy, Blue Jays

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While many are anticipating that the Orioles will have difficulty in retaining their free agents, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com cautions against simply dismissing the possibility that Baltimore can find a way to retain some combination of Wei-Yin Chen, Chris Davis, Matt Wieters and Darren O’Day. Of the four, Kubatko considers Chen the least likely to return, but he notes that the O’s had an organizational meeting last Friday which included managing partner Peter Angelos. One source later termed the meeting “productive” when speaking to Kubatko. The MASN scribe also hears from a source that Angelos wants to not only re-sign Chen but also is showing a willingness to add a free agent starter beyond the longtime Baltimore lefty. Of course, Kubatko also points out the possibility that Chen’s demotion to Class-A ball this season — a more or less procedural move that bought the Orioles some time to sort out a roster crunch — strained the relationship between player and team.

From my own vantage point, history hasn’t shown that the Orioles would be willing to spend at the necessary levels to sign Chen. A four-year deal is almost certainly there for him this winter, and he has a case for a fifth season at an annual rate in excess of the $12.5MM on Ubaldo Jimenez’s four-year deal with Baltimore. As Kubtako notes, Baltimore “shocked” many in the industry with that Jimenez contract; either a five-year deal or a significantly larger four-year pact for Chen strikes me as unlikely.

A few more items pertaining to the AL East…

  • Kubatko’s colleague, Steve Melewski, writes that fans who feel the Orioles should try Zach Britton back in the rotation are misguided. Britton would be unable to jump from about 70 innings per season to the 175 to 200 necessary out of the rotation, and more importantly, he’d almost certainly be less effective in the rotation. Moving to a starting role would make it more difficult for Britton to hold his velocity, and hitters would benefit from second and third looks at his incredible sinker. He’d also need to throw more secondary pitches than he presently does, and the move would further weaken a bullpen that will already be an area of need for Baltimore this winter.
  • Daniel Murphy signing with the Yankees is an unlikely scenario but can’t be completely ruled out, writes Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. Second base is the Yankees’ most uncertain position on the diamond at present, and while many believe Rob Refsnyder will get a long look next year, Murphy’s swing fits Yankee Stadium well. The Yankees are in the midst of their pro scouting meetings and beginning to plot a course for the offseason, so Murphy’s name figures to at least be mentioned. Feinsand spoke to a pair of sources that estimated Murphy can land a deal similar to Chase Headley’s four-year, $52MM contract on the heels of a big postseason performance.
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post looks back on the trade that sent R.A. Dickey, Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas to the Blue Jays in exchange for Travis d’Arnaud, Noah Syndergaard, John Buck and Wuilmer Becerra. While there were other pieces in the trade, the core of the trade — Dickey for Syndergaard/d’Arnaud — looks excellent for the Mets, in hindsight. Sherman spoke with Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos, who explained the the team had a win-now approach back in that 2012 offseason, with the goal of maximizing the prime years of Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. Both d’Arnaud and Syndergaard were years from contributing, and Toronto felt it could get four years of control of a win-now pitcher to help its near-term playoff hopes. The Jays also talked to the Rays about James Shields and had interest in free agent Anibal Sanchez at the time, but Tampa Bay didn’t want to move Shields within the division and Sanchez preferred Detroit to Toronto, Sherman adds.

Heyman’s Latest: Harvey, Murphy, Kennedy, Wieters, Phillies

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Mets righty Matt Harvey and agent Scott Boras took out an insurance policy on the right-hander’s arm, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports in his latest Inside Baseball column. The policy covers a mere fraction of Harvey’s overall earning potential, says Heyman, but it does give him a bit of a safety net in the event that his workload following Tommy John surgery leads to future arm complications. Heyman notes that Harvey’s dominant outing in Game 1 of the NLCS “all but obliterated” other teams’ chances of trading for the right-hander, who was lauded by the Citi Field faithful. Never one to pass up the chance for a memorable quote, Boras said of Harvey’s performance on a cold New York evening: “Forget Batman. He’s Mr. Freeze.”

A few more highlights from the column…

  • While multiple reports have indicated that the Mets aren’t planning on giving Daniel Murphy a qualifying offer, one rival GM tells Heyman that they “absolutely have to” extend the QO on the heels of Murphy’s huge postseason. The GM added that Murphy should reject the offer and look to capitalize on the five homers he’s launched since the NLDS got underway.
  • The Padres appear to have interest in a reunion with starter Ian Kennedy, per the report. It’s likely, of course, that there will be competition. As Heyman notes, the 30-year-old righty has sustained the gains in velocity and strikeout rate that he showed last year — in fact, his 9.3 K/9 is second only to David Price among free agents — and has been a reliable source of innings for the last six years.
  • Catcher Matt Wieters will draw some open-market interest from the Rangers, but only if he avoids a qualifying offer. Texas would not have interest in giving up its first-round pick to ink Wieters, says Heyman.
  • The Phillies haven’t yet called Jim Hendry about their open GM seat. He teamed with new Philadelphia president Andy MacPhail with the Cubs. But Heyman writes that the Phils appear to be angling toward younger candidates. Though we haven’t heard much lately on the status of Kim Ng, one source says that she remains in the mix.
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