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Shohei Ohtani Wins NL MVP

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Shohei Ohtani has his third MVP. The Baseball Writers Association of America announced that Ohtani won the National League MVP in his first season as a Dodger. Francisco Lindor landed in second place, while Ketel Marte rounds out the top three. Ohtani received all 30 first-place votes.

Ohtani becomes the first full-time designated hitter to win MVP, as he was unable to pitch for the entire season after undergoing elbow surgery late last year. He joins Frank Robinson as the only players to win an MVP in both leagues and he’s only the 12th player in big league history to win the award three times in his career. Barry Bonds is the only player with more than three MVPs — he won the award seven times — so Ohtani has a chance to move into second place on the leaderboard as he goes into his age-30 season.

While Ohtani’s first two MVPs reflected his two-way ability, this year’s honors are solely about his offensive dominance. He had arguably his best hitting season ever. Ohtani hit a career-high 54 homers and drove in 130 runs. He posted a .310/.390/.646 slash line, leading the National League in both on-base percentage and slugging. Ohtani also paced the Senior Circuit in homers and RBI while ranking second among qualified hitters in batting average. Luis Arraez hit .314 to narrowly prevent Ohtani from winning the Triple Crown.

Monstrous as his power numbers were, Ohtani was also perhaps the league’s best baserunner. He stole 59 bases, trailing only Elly De La Cruz in that category. While De La Cruz was caught stealing 16 times in addition to his 67 successful attempts, Ohtani was cut down on just four occasions. No player in history had ever posted a 50-homer, 50-steal season. Ohtani broke both marks easily, getting there with one of the best single-game performances in history. He went 6-6 with three homers, two steals and 10 RBI in a 20-4 drubbing of the Marlins to establish the 50-50 club.

Ohtani helped the Dodgers to yet another NL West title — their 11th division crown in 12 years. Los Angeles went 98-64 to secure the top seed in the National League. Playoff performance is irrelevant to awards voting, which occurs at the end of the regular season. Ohtani was relatively quiet in his first October action, hitting .230/.373/.393 in 16 games. That didn’t hold L.A. back from knocking out the Padres, Mets and Yankees en route to their second World Series in five years.

For a while, it seemed as if Lindor would pose a real threat to Ohtani winning the award. He hit 33 homers and stole 29 bases with a .273/.344/.500 showing over 689 trips to the plate. As a plus defensive shortstop, Lindor obviously provided significant defensive value. Ohtani’s historic offensive achievements proved decisive in the end, though this is Lindor’s first top three MVP finish. Marte raked at a .292/.372/.560 clip with 36 homers to earn the highest MVP placement of his career.

Lindor received 23 of 30 second-place votes. Marte finished second on five ballots. Braves DH Marcell Ozuna and Cy Young winner Chris Sale each got one second-place nod themselves. Ozuna and Milwaukee catcher William Contreras rounded out the top five in overall balloting. Giants third baseman Matt Chapman received one third place vote, though he placed 11th in balloting overall. Bryce Harper, De La Cruz, Jackson Merrill, Willy Adames, Zack Wheeler, Mookie Betts, Jurickson Profar, Kyle Schwarber, Manny Machado, Freddie Freeman, Arraez, Paul Skenes, Teoscar Hernández, Ezequiel Tovar, Jackson Chourio and Dylan Cease all received votes.

Image courtesy of Imagn. Full voter breakdown from BBWAA.

Mets Acquire Jose Siri

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The Mets and Rays announced a one-for-one trade sending outfielder Jose Siri to New York for reliever Eric Orze. Both players were on their teams’ 40-man roster, so the trade doesn’t have any impact on tonight’s Rule 5 protection deadline.

Siri, 29, spent two and a half seasons in Tampa Bay. The Rays acquired him from the Astros in a three-team trade at the 2022 deadline. Siri has been Kevin Cash’s primary center fielder going back to the start of the ’23 season. He connected on 25 home runs in only 364 plate appearances that year. While the power was enough to make Siri a productive player, he hit .222 with a .267 on-base percentage.

Those already poor marks fell even further in 2024. Siri hit .187/.255/.366 in a career-high 448 plate appearances. He popped another 18 homers but ranked last in OBP among the 207 hitters with at least 400 trips to the plate. Only Mitch Garver had a lower batting average. Since the start of the ’23 season, Siri owns a .203/.260/.424 batting line.

An extreme free swinger, Siri has issues making contact against pitches both within and outside the zone. He went down on strikes at a massive 37.9% rate this year and has fanned in nearly 36% of his career plate appearances. Siri strikes out far too often to be a consistently effective hitter, but he has 20+ homer potential at the bottom of a lineup.

More importantly, Siri has elite athleticism that makes him one of the best defensive players in baseball. He’s a top-of-the-scale runner with elite arm strength. Siri has posted excellent numbers for his glovework in center field. Defensive Runs Saved credited him as 12 runs above average in a little over 1000 innings this past season. Statcast was even more bullish, rating him 15 runs above par. By measure of Statcast’s Outs Above Average, Siri was tied for second with Cardinals rookie Michael Siani among outfielders in defensive value. Only Washington’s Jacob Young narrowly surpassed him. Brenton Doyle and Daulton Varsho are the only outfielders with more Outs Above Average since the start of 2023.

Siri probably slots behind Tyrone Taylor on New York’s center field depth chart. Both players are right-handed hitters, so they don’t make for a natural platoon. Taylor has much better contact skills than Siri brings to the table. He’s coming off a solid .248/.299/.401 showing in his first year as a Met.

There are clear parallels between Siri and Harrison Bader, to whom the Mets gave 437 plate appearances this year. They’re each fantastic defensive outfielders with some power but subpar on-base skills. Bader is again a free agent after playing on a $10.5MM deal. Siri is much more affordable. He’s in his first of three arbitration seasons and is projected for a $2.3MM salary (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz). If the Mets again find themselves in the top tier of luxury tax penalization, they’ll pay roughly $2.53MM in taxes on top of that salary. They control him through the 2027 campaign.

While Siri remained affordable, the Rays were evidently prepared to move on because of his lackluster offense. Their only other player who got an extended look in center field this year was Jonny DeLuca. Acquired from the Dodgers in the Tyler Glasnow trade, DeLuca hit just .217/.278/.331 in his first extended MLB look. He’s nearly as fast as Siri and could be a plus defensive center fielder in his own right, but he doesn’t bring much offensive juice.

While Dylan Carlson once looked like a potential everyday center fielder in St. Louis, his bat has never developed as hoped. Josh Lowe is probably better suited in a corner, though he could theoretically move back to center if the Rays add another bat or want to play Christopher Morel and Richie Palacios in the corner outfield on a regular basis.

As they look to sort out center field, the Rays add to their bullpen depth. Orze, 27, was a fifth-round pick in the shortened 2020 draft. His only big league experience consists of two games for the Mets in July. He was blown up in that limited look, surrendering four runs in 1 2/3 innings.

The 6’4″ righty had a solid year at Triple-A Syracuse. He tossed 61 2/3 innings of 2.92 ERA ball, striking out nearly a third of opponents behind an excellent 15.4% swinging strike rate. Orze walked more than 12% of batters faced and has struggled with his command throughout his pro career. That could relegate him to a middle relief role. Orze uses his changeup as his primary pitch and sits in the 93-94 MPH range with his fastball. He barely has any major league service and can be optioned for another two seasons, so he’ll likely bounce between Tampa Bay and Triple-A Durham on multiple occasions over the next couple years.

Anthony DiComo of MLB.com first reported the terms of the trade. Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

12 Players Decline Qualifying Offers

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Twelve of the 13 qualified free agents have declined the QO, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The exception was Nick Martinez, who accepted the $21.05MM offer from the Reds over the weekend.

The players who rejected the offer:

There wasn’t much intrigue by the time this afternoon’s deadline officially rolled around. Martinez, Pivetta and perhaps Severino were the only players who seemed like they’d consider the QO. All three made their decisions fairly early in the 15-day window that they had to weigh the offer.

All 12 players who declined the QO have a case for at least a three-year contract. Soto is looking at the biggest deal (in terms of net present value) in MLB history. Burnes, Fried, Adames, Bregman, Alonso and potentially Santander could land nine figures. Severino, Manaea, Hernández and Pivetta look like they’ll land three- or four-year deals. Walker could get to three years as well, though it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if his age limits him to a two-year pact at a high average annual value.

A team that signs these players will take a hit to its draft stock and potentially its bonus pool slot for international amateurs. The penalties vary depending on the team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2024. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk covered the forfeitures for every team last month. A team would not forfeit a pick to re-sign its own qualified free agent, though it would lose the right to collect any kind of compensation.

If these players walk, their former teams will receive an extra draft pick. The Brewers, Orioles and Diamondbacks are in line for the highest compensation as revenue sharing recipients. If their players sign elsewhere for at least $50MM (a virtual lock in the cases of Burnes, Santander and Adames), the compensation pick would fall after the first round of next year’s draft. If the player signs for less than $50MM — which could be the case if Walker is limited to two years — the compensation pick would land before the start of the third round (roughly 70th overall).

The Red Sox neither received revenue sharing nor paid the competitive balance tax. They’ll get a pick before the third round if Pivetta walks regardless of the value of his contract. The Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Braves and Astros all paid the tax in 2024. They’ll get a pick after the fourth round if any of their players depart — potentially three picks, in the Mets’ case. The prospects selected by that point — usually around 130th overall — tend not to be highly touted, but each extra selection could carry a slot value north of $500K to devote to next year’s draft bonus pool.

Luis Severino To Decline Qualifying Offer

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November 19: Severino is indeed declining the QO, tweets Tim Healey of Newsday.

November 16: Right-hander Luis Severino is “likely” to decline the Qualifying Offer extended to him by the Mets earlier this month, according to a report from Will Sammon of The Athletic. Sammon adds that Severino “loves” playing in New York but is now expected to attempt to land a multi-year deal in free agency this winter.

Severino, 30, is entering free agency for the second time this year. The right-hander entered the open market last winter coming of a disastrous 2023 season with the Yankees where he surrendered a 6.65 ERA in 89 1/3 innings of work and landed with the Mets on a one-year, $13MM deal. That deal went quite well, as he pitched to a league average 3.91 ERA (101 ERA+) with a 4.21 ERA in 182 innings of work. He struck out 21.2% of opponents while walking batters at just a 7.9% clip. Those are all solid but unspectacular numbers, but that mid-to-back of the rotation production can still earn a strong guarantee in free agency, as the likes of Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker have in recent years (albeit without the QO attached).

Given that, it’s perhaps not much of a surprise that Severino would look to beat the one-year, $21.05MM Qualifying Offer. MLBTR predicted a three-year, $51MM contract for Severino earlier this winter, after the Mets attached a QO to him. That guarantee is in line with what veteran right-hander Michael Wacha received from the Royals just before free agency opened, and Wacha was viewed as a similarly borderline candidate for a QO as Severino was. Of course, Severino wouldn’t necessarily have to reach that projection for declining the QO to be a worthwhile decision for him. Right-hander Nathan Eovaldi landed a two-year, $34MM guarantee with the Rangers prior to the 2023 season that afforded him a vesting player option for 2025, and even a similar deal would net Severino a larger overall guarantee than the QO while still affording him the flexibility to return to free agency in short order.

With Severino poised to decline the QO, the Mets will now need to either re-sign him in free agency or replace him in their rotation. The club’s rotation also stands to lose southpaws Sean Manaea (who received a QO as well but has long been expected to decline it) and Jose Quintana, leaving them with only Kodai Senga and David Peterson penciled into their 2025 rotation. It’s certainly possible that the club could look to reunite with either Severino or one of the other exiting free agent starters, although the Mets have plenty of financial flexibility and are coming off a surprise trip to the NLCS. That could lead them to aim higher in free agency this winter, with top free agent starters such as Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, and Max Fried all expected to be available. It’s even possible that they turn to the trade market in their search for rotation upgrades, as they’ve been linked to White Sox southpaw Garrett Crochet already this winter.

Should Severino ultimately land elsewhere in free agency, him declining the QO means that the Mets would receive a compensatory draft pick after the fourth round of the 2025 draft as a club that paid the luxury tax in 2024. Meanwhile, interested teams would have to surrender a combination of draft picks and international bonus pool dollars commensurate with their status relative to the luxury tax and revenue sharing as laid out by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk last month. Teams that received revenue sharing in 2024 would surrender just their third-round pick in the 2025 draft to sign Severino, while teams that paid the Competitive Balance Tax this year would surrender their second- and fifth-round picks in addition to $1MM in international bonus pool space.

Mets Sign Justin Hagenman To Major League Contract

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3:50pm: Hagenman’s deal is a split contract, per Will Sammon of The Athletic on X. He’ll make $850K in the majors and $225K in the minors.

3:05pm: The Mets announced that they have signed right-hander Justin Hagenman to a major league contract. He had just elected minor league free agency earlier this month. The club’s 40-man roster count jumps to 34.

Hagenman, 28, cracks a major league roster for the first time. He was drafted by the Dodgers back in 2018 but when to the Red Sox as part of the 2023 deadline trade that sent Enrique Hernández to Los Angeles. The Sox never added Hagenman to their roster, so he qualified for minor league free agency after 2024 as a player with seven seasons of minor league experience. However, the Mets apparently saw enough to give him a 40-man spot today.

Over the past four years, Hagenman has thrown 302 2/3 innings on the farm with a 4.19 earned run average, 25.7% strikeout rate and 7.5% walk rate. He has primarily been a reliever in his career but served more of a swingman role in 2024 without his rate stats changing much. He tossed 91 2/3 Triple-A innings this past year with a 4.91 ERA, 24.5% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate. The home run ball seemed to be an issue, as he allowed 21 this year, a rate of 21.4% per flyball.

The Mets need plenty of help on the pitching staff. Each of Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana, Luis Severino, Brooks Raley, Adam Ottavino, Ryne Stanek, Phil Maton, Joey Lucchesi and Drew Smith became free agents at the end of 2024, opening a few holes in both the rotation and bullpen. Hagenman gives the club some depth for both and can theoretically do so for quite some time. Since this is his first time on a big league roster, he still has a full slate of options and no big league service time.

Sean Manaea To Reject Qualifying Offer

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Left-hander Sean Manaea will reject the $21.05MM qualifying offer that was extended to him by the Mets, per Alden González of ESPN (X link). The southpaw was one of 13 players who received a qualifying offer this year, with the deadline for decisions tomorrow at 3pm Central.

As noted by González, the news doesn’t come as a surprise, as Manaea never really seemed like a candidate to accept the offer. He has a lengthy track record of major league success, with an earned run average of 4.00 in almost 1200 innings, and is coming off one of his best seasons.

Manaea signed with the Mets last offseason, a two-year deal with a $28MM guarantee but an opt-out midway through. The lefty would make $14.5MM in 2024 and then have to decide whether or not to walk away from a $13.5MM salary for 2025.

He eventually made 32 starts for the Mets in his age-32 season, logging 181 2/3 innings with a 3.47 ERA. As noted by MLBTR’s Steve Adams earlier this month, Manaea had altered his arm slot and pregame workout midseason, which seemingly made him even stronger as the year went along. Over his last 20 starts, he posted a 3.05 ERA while pairing a 26% strikeout rate with an 8% walk rate. He also made four postseason starts with the Mets as they pushed as far as game six of the NLCS.

That strong performance made it an easy decision for Manaea to opt-out and return to free agency in search of a larger guarantee. It also wasn’t tough for the Mets to issue the QO, knowing that Manaea could reject it and still have plenty of suitors in free agency. MLBTR predicted Manaea for a $60MM deal over three years, even with the QO attached.

The Mets will now be in line to receive modest compensation if Manaea eventually signs with another club. As competitive balance tax payors, they will receive a pick after the fourth round of the upcoming draft. The signing club will also be subject to a penalty, though the specifics of that will depend upon whether the signing club was a tax payor or revenue sharing recipient.

Mets Sign Rafael Ortega To Minor League Deal

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The Mets announced this morning that they’ve signed veteran outfielder Rafael Ortega to a minor league deal. Ortega, a client of Prestige Sports, will be in spring training as a non-roster invitee to camp. The Mets also confirmed their previously reported minor league deal with infielder Donovan Walton. He’ll also be a non-roster invitee in camp, the club added.

Ortega, 33, will be in his second stint with the Mets organization. He played the bulk of the 2023 season there, logging 30 Triple-A games and another 47 big league contests. The lefty-swinging Ortega filled a bench role with the Mets in ’23, hitting .219/.341/.272 with a homer and six steals in 136 plate appearances that season. He’s a career .245/.322/.349 hitter in 1301 plate appearances as a big leaguer, dating back to his MLB debut with the Rockies in 2012.

Ortega has extensive experience at all three outfield positions in his big league career, though he’s spent the bulk of his time in center field. He’s spent at least some time in the majors in each of the past four seasons, most prominently with the Cubs in 2021-22, when he batted a combined .265/.344/.408 in 701 turns at the plate.

The Mets saw outfielders Harrison Bader and Jesse Winker reach free agency at season’s end, and they’ve already outrighted outfielder DJ Stewart off the roster and seen him elect free agency as well. Ortega replenishes some outfield depth and provides center field insurance in a way that neither Winker nor Stewart could. For the time being, Brandon Nimmo, Tyrone Taylor and Starling Marte top the outfield depth chart in Queens, but there will assuredly be changes as the team pursues various free agents — headlined, of course, by Juan Soto.

Quick Hits: Int’l Market, Mets, Soto, Mateo, Rays, Yankees

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Roki Sasaki’s impending move to Major League Baseball will have a big impact on the offseason pitching market, but plenty of shockwaves will be felt throughout the international signing market.  Baseball America’s Ben Badler recently outlined how several other prospects will be affected if Sasaki’s 45-day posting window stretches beyond January 15 and the start of the next international signing period.  If Sasaki doesn’t sign until after January 15, teams will have to use funds from their 2025 signing pools to sign him, rather than their 2024 pools.  The 2024 signing period closes on December 15, further narrowing the window of time for Sasaki and an MLB team to finalize a contract.

Since it seems likely Sasaki will indeed still be unsigned by January 15, Badler observes that multiple teams could end up putting their plans for the next signing period entirely on hold until the right-hander makes his decision.  This means that the many prospects already committed to these teams on unofficial deals will be in limbo, and the club that finally lands Sasaki is likely to walk away from those pre-existing handshake deals if it means landing the Japanese star.  It would leave that team’s set of international prospects suddenly looking to land elsewhere, and potentially other clubs’ prospects might also walk away from their agreements if nothing is finalized on January 15.  As Badler notes, teams that aren’t in the running for Sasaki could benefit in swooping in to sign some extra prospects in the aftermath.

The entire situation adds a lot of extra drama to what is normally a fairly routine day on the calendar, as clubs have had these deals with these young January 15th prospects worked out years in advance, sometimes when the players are barely teenagers.  Needless to say, it creates a lot of disruption for the players, their families, and their trainers who helped arrange the signings, as what looked like safe pre-arranged windfalls might now be in question.  As much as Sasaki may have a higher clear upside than an entire bonus pool’s worth of international prospects, abandoning a January 15th class could create some hard feelings for a team in their future int’l dealings.

More from around the baseball world…

  • The meeting between Juan Soto and the Mets took place this past Saturday, with the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reporting that Mets owner Steve Cohen, president of baseball operations David Stearns, and manager Carlos Mendoza all in attendance to provide a “very detailed” presentation to the star slugger.  Soto is set to next meet with the Yankees on Monday, and he has previously met with the Blue Jays and Red Sox in these early stages of his free agent adventure.  It isn’t expected that Soto will be signing any time soon, as these initial meetings could be more about laying groundwork than putting any actual offers on the table.
  • Orioles GM Mike Elias told reporters (including MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko) that Jorge Mateo is expected “to have a very full, if not a 162, something close to that season” in the aftermath of a UCL brace procedure last August.  Kubatko’s impression was that the Orioles have Mateo in their plans for 2025, which lowers the possibility that the infielder could be cut loose in advance of the November 22 non-tender deadline.  Mateo is projected for a $3.2MM arbitration salary, and fits as a non-tender candidate considering between his injury, subpar offense, and the crowded Baltimore infield picture.  The O’s could be an interesting team to watch this week in advance of both the non-tender deadline and Tuesday’s deadline to set 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft, as Baltimore could potentially move an infielder or two off the roster in trades.
  • With the Rays set to use George M. Steinbrenner Field as their home for the 2025 season, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times looks at several details involved in the plan.  A lot has naturally yet to be determined, though Topkin answers some questions ranging from team-centric issues like clubhouses and training amenities to fan-related details like how tickets and parking will be managed.  One interesting wrinkle is the fact that the Rays are expected to host playoff games as per usual should the team make the postseason, which creates the awkward potential scenario of the Rays hosting the Yankees in the Yankees’ own Spring Training facility.

Mets Sign Donovan Walton To Minors Contract

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The Mets signed Donovan Walton to a minor league contract, according to the infielder’s MLB.com profile page.  Walton elected to become a free agent at the start of November when the Giants outrighted him off their 40-man roster — since Walton had previously been outrighted in his career, he has the right to opt for free agency rather than accept another outright assignment.

The 30-year-old appeared in nine games after San Francisco selected Walton’s contract to the active roster in mid-September, which marked Walton’s first big league playing time since 2022.  Walton broke into the majors with the Mariners in 2019 and played in 37 games over parts of four seasons before Seattle traded him to the Giants in May 2022.  That season was cut short by a shoulder surgery that also kept him on the shelf for a good chunk of the 2023 campaign, as Walton spent the entirety of that season in the Giants’ minor league system.

If the 2023 season was just about getting back to good health for Walton, he looked sharper this season in hitting .306/.380/.441 over 387 plate appearances with Triple-A Sacramento.  This more or less matches his .287/.370/.454 slash line across 975 career PA at the Triple-A level, but Walton hasn’t been able to carry that production into the Show, as he has hit only .174/.227/.305 in 205 PA with the Mariners and Giants.

Walton has mostly split his time between the two middle infield positions, though he has some experience as a third baseman and left fielder.  Though his lack of offense limits his ceiling, Walton is a left-handed hitter who can play multiple positions, making him an interesting option for teams looking to fill out a roster.  The Mets can give Walton a look during Spring Training and see what he can bring to the table as a depth piece for either the big league squad or at Triple-A.

Mets Hire Desi Druschel As Assistant Pitching Coach

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The Mets have hired Desi Druschel as assistant pitching coach, per Andy Martino of SNY (X links). Druschel has had that same assistant pitching coach title with the Yankees for the past three years but will now move across to town to work for the Mets under pitching coach Jeremy Hefner. Yankee manager Aaron Boone said earlier today that there was one change coming to his coaching staff, so perhaps this was what he was referring to.

Druschel has been coaching for years, working for high schools and colleges starting back in 1996. In 2019, the Yankees hired him away from the Iowa Hawkeyes, giving him the job of minor league manager of pitch development. He was promoted to the major league staff after the 2021 season, working as assistant pitching coach under pitching coach Matt Blake.

It’s impossible to separate player performance from the contributions of a coach, but for what it’s worth, the Yankees had good pitching during Druschel’s time with the club. Yankee pitchers had a collective 3.68 earned run average over the past three seasons combined. That’s fourth in the majors for that stretch, behind only the Astros, Dodgers and Mariners.

The Mets had a collective 3.96 ERA in 2024, 15th in the league. There should be plenty of roster turnover by the time the 2025 season starts, as each of Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana, Luis Severino, Adam Ottavino, Ryne Stanek, Drew Smith and Brooks Raley became free agents at season’s end. President of baseball operations David Stearns should be busy this winter in finding new arms in free agency or the trade market. However it shakes out, Druschel will join Hefner in trying to help the Mets get the best out of them.

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