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2016 Arbitration Filing Numbers

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MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today’s noon deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are available here.

As MLBTR has previously explained, 156 players officially filed for arbitration (after some eligible and tendered players had already reached agreement). Of those, 34 players have yet to reach reported agreements with their clubs. Of course, those players can still reach agreements before their hearings (which will take place between February 1st and 21st). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side’s figures, rather than settling on a midpoint.

We’ve gathered the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining — those where the player files for at least $4.5MM — in this post, but you can find them all in the tracker (with two as-yet-unreported exceptions).

Orioles Have Made Offer To Cespedes; Mets Still Interested In Short-Term Deal

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12:47pm: The Mets have not extended a formal offer to Cespedes, tweets Heyman, but do remain interested in pacts of one to three years if he comes off his demands for a longer-term deal.

12:30pm: MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez tweets that Cespedes is believed to be considering both a five-year, $90MM offer (plus a possible option) with the Orioles against a one-year deal with the Mets which would allow him to hit free agency again next winter.

JAN. 15, 11:40am: Jon Heyman tweets that the offer is believed to be for about $90MM over five years and may contain an option for a sixth season. Ghiroli also hears (Twitter link) that there’s a possible option attached to the deal, adding that Camden Yards is appealing to Cespedes. Kubatko adds (Twitter link) that there won’t be an opt-out clause from the Orioles.

JAN. 14, 9:36pm: Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun reports that the Orioles have increased their interest in Cespedes and are considering an offer worth around $18MM per year.  That would seem to indicate that the Orioles are on the higher end of the range previously listed by Crasnick, although from my vantage point that still seems to be too light to land a player of Cespedes’ caliber. Whether that’s a launching point into deeper negotiations or an offer near the top of Baltimore’s comfort zone remains to be seen, but the team does not appear, at this time, to simply be willing to reallocate the ~$150MM offered to Davis to a pursuit of Cespedes.

6:16pm: ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that “it’s believed” that the Orioles are willing to go in the range of five years and $75-90MM for Cespedes at this time. While that’s a sizable sum, it’s also considerably south of the general expectations most had for Cespedes entering the season. Crasnick also tweets that the Orioles are becoming increasingly frustrated with Davis and might even be on the brink of walking away from negotiations entirely.

4:57pm: The Orioles have made an offer to outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, an industry source tells MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko (Twitter link), who adds that Baltimore prefers Cespedes to Justin Upton at this time. Per Kubatko, there are no new developments in the seemingly stagnant talks between the Orioles and Chris Davis. MLB.com’s Britt Ghiroli tweets that Baltimore’s interest in Cespedes “is high.”

The nature of the offer remains a mystery at this juncture, although given Baltimore’s reported seven-year, $150-154MM offer to Davis, the team clearly has some money to spend this offseason. While many have speculated that Cespedes could eventually change course and seek a short-term deal, that speculation seems largely unfounded; reports yesterday indicated that Cespedes’ camp has no interest in seeking a short-term deal, and as Jeff Todd and I broke down on today’s podcast, players on the level of Cespedes, Upton and Davis typically end up getting paid, even if they linger on the market into late January. For instance, one year ago today, a common narrative was that Max Scherzer didn’t have a market and wouldn’t be able to secure the mammoth contract he sought; on Jan. 22, he signed a $210MM contract with the Nationals. While the outfield market has been slow to develop, the Orioles could potentially be one of the keys to expediting the signing process for the remaining top bats. Representatives of each of the top remaining bats know that Baltimore has money to spend and a need for offense, with at least one corner-outfield hole to fill.

As the two top corner outfield bats remaining on the market, Cespedes and Upton figure to remain linked until one of the duo signs. The pair offers relatively similar skill-sets, though Cespedes offers considerably more defensive upside whereas Upton’s keener eye at the plate leads to an edge in on-base percentage for him. Additionally, Upton is two years younger, but he also comes with draft-pick compensation attached to his name after rejecting a qualifying offer. The same cannot be said for Cespedes, who was of course ineligible to receive a QO after being traded from the Tigers to the Mets this past season.

Arbitration Breakdown: Dallas Keuchel, Shelby Miller, Matt Harvey

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Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Just like last year, our arbitration model expects three pitchers to break the decade-old record for starting pitchers reaching their first-year of eligibility for arbitration. As is generally the case, these pitchers are excellent extension candidates, and extensions are a big part of the reason why Dontrelle Willis’ $4.35MM arbitration salary from 2006 has stood this long as the record.

In reality, the record really should have been broken several times already. Most notably, Tim Lincecum was offered $8MM in 2010 when he requested $13MM upon exchanging figures with the Giants. He ultimately earned $9MM as part of a multi-year deal, but Willis’ record technically still stood, because Lincecum had not signed a one-year deal. Clayton Kershaw in 2012 was offered $6.5MM when requesting $10MM and ultimately signed a multi-year deal, giving him $7.75MM his first year. Just last year, one of the three pitchers projected to break Willis’ record, Lance Lynn, made $7MM as part of a multi-year deal, although it is less clear he would have earned that much had he not signed his three-year deal.

Dallas Keuchel

The strongest of the three cases this year is that of the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner, Dallas Keuchel. He went 20-8 in 2015 with a 2.48 in 232 innings. The only other two platform-year Cy Young winners in recent history have been Lincecum and Kershaw, but both of them clearly had stronger careers than Keuchel before winning their Cy Young Awards. Lincecum had a 2.90 career ERA and Kershaw’s career ERA was 2.88, while Keuchel only has a 3.58 career ERA and was at 4.16 before his Cy Young season. Similarly, Lincecum was 40-17 career at the time, and Kershaw was 42-28, while Keuchel is only 41-35.

In addition to Keuchel, two other pitchers are projected to top the $4.35MM record for first-time eligible starting pitchers. Shelby Miller only went 6-17 in 2015, but his 3.02 ERA in 205 1/3 innings in his All-Star platform year, along with his 3.22 career ERA in 575 1/3 innings give him a strong projection anyway. Matt Harvey went 13-8 with a 2.71 ERA in 189 1/3 innings in his platform year, and he has a 25-18 career record with a 2.53 career ERA in 427 innings. While Keuchel is projected to earn $6.4MM, Miller is projected to earn $4.9MM, and Harvey is projected to earn $4.7MM .

Despite no hurler topping Willis’ $4.35MM record, a number of pitchers have gotten very close in recent years. Five players in the last six years have landed between $4MM and $4.35MM on one-year deals, and many more have received multi-year deals. Comparing Keuchel, Miller, and Harvey with these five hurlers, along with a few other players who fell just short of $4MM will help figure out whether our projection for these pitchers is appropriate.

Keuchel seems like a safe bet to break the $4.35MM record if he does have a one-year award or goes to a hearing. David Price, who tied Willis’ $4.35MM record, was 14-10 with a 3.09 ERA in 224 1/3 innings in his platform year, which Keuchel bested in each category. Keuchel also has the same number of wins as Price did for his career at the time (41) and a similar ERA (3.38 for Price, 3.58 for Keuchel). Strengthening Keuchel’s argument is the fact that Price had nearly 100 fewer career innings when he tied Willis’ record.

Chris Tillman, who earned $4.32MM last year, did so after a 13-6 record with 3.34 ERA in his platform year and only a 4.00 career ERA with 45 career wins. Keuchel clearly should out-earn Tillman, Price and Willis handily, although he is likely to fall short of the respective $8MM and $6.5MM figures that were offered to Kershaw and Lincecum prior to their multi-year deals. I suspect Keuchel will miss the $6.4MM projection, but could easily get close to $6MM — comfortably establishing a new record.

Shelby Miller may have a harder time hitting his projection. I suspect that the model is struggling to find pitchers with an ERA as good and with as many innings who did not have many wins. A couple of recent comparables emerge, both of which had single-digit wins in their platform year with low ERAs. Stephen Strasburg in 2014 earned $3.97MM a couple years ago after going 8-9 with a 3.00 ERA in his platform year, but his 183 innings that year are short of Miller’s 205, and Miller’s 575 career innings handily top Strasburg’s 434.

Travis Wood earned $3.9MM two years ago with a 9-12 platform year record, 200 platform year innings and 564 career innings, although his career ERA was 3.83. Miller easily bests that mark with 3.22. Their platform year ERAs were similar, however, with Wood at 3.11 and Miller at 3.02. Miller also struck out a few more hitters than Wood had. Overall, both Strasburg and Wood getting just shy of $4MM two years ago with worse pre-platform performances suggests that Miller should get over $4MM, even if his $4.9MM projection will be harder to land. Most likely, he will end up between $4MM and the $4.35MM record, unless Keuchel or Harvey re-sets the market and pushes his number upward.

Matt Harvey

It’s difficult to find comparables for Harvey, partly because of his injuries and partly because his playoff performance in 2015 could help his case. Cole Hamels’ case after his 2008 playoff success (although he was the World Series MVP) would have been a good match, even though it is stale, but he signed a multi-year deal instead. He did earn $4.35MM in a multi-year deal that could be a useful comparison. Hamels similarly did not have many platform year wins despite a strong ERA — he went 14-10 with a 3.09 ERA, which compares somewhat favorably to Harvey’s 13-8 with 2.71. Hamels did have 227 innings though, compared with Harvey’s 189. On the other hand, Harvey’s 2.53 career ERA clearly outdoes the 3.43 ERA held by Hamels at the time.

Mike Minor got a one-year deal for $3.85MM a couple years ago after going 13-9 with a 3.21 ERA in 204 2/3 innings, although his 3.90 career ERA is clearly worse than Harvey’s. However, his 507 1/3 career innings at the time exceed Harvey’s 427.

It is not too challenging to make a case that David Price’s numbers when he got $4.35MM are similar to Miller and Harvey. Both Miller and Harvey possess superior ERA marks, although they each also had fewer innings. Harvey’s record was better (13-8 versus 12-13) but Miller’s was worse (6-17). Price’s 3.38 career ERA was similar to Miller’s 3.22, but Harvey’s 2.53 is better. On the other hand, Price and Miller had matching innings totals, while Harvey was about 150 innings short.

It does not seem obvious that Harvey or Miller can top the Price/Willis record, so I suspect both of them will end up in the $4MM to $4.35MM range. Obviously, if Keuchel shatters Price’s record in advance, Harvey or Miller could have a better opportunity to top that figure themselves, but I would bet the model’s projections for this pair ultimately proves to be too high.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NL East Notes: Fernandez, Yelich, Vizcaino, DePodesta

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With Dee Gordon now extended through the 2020 season (and possibly 2021 by way of vesting option), MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro gets the sense that the Marlins hope to hammer out a long-term deal for Jose Fernandez, possibly in advance of tomorrow’s exchange of arbitration figures (Twitter link). That’s an ambitious goal for a number of reasons — lack of time, Fernandez’s stock being low after an injury-shortened season, Scott Boras’ aversion to long-term deals, etc. — and Frisaro himself notes that he hasn’t confirmed long-term contract talks are taking place. Jon Heyman, meanwhile, tweets that there’s “no word” that the Marlins are hopeful of coming to terms on an extension with their young ace. With Fernandez already eligible for arbitration, the urgency to sign a deal isn’t as pressing, as he’ll begin earning notable salaries as soon as 2016, when MLBTR has him projected at $2.2MM. Given his excellence when healthy, that number should rise rapidly, as he’ll be arb-eligible three more times before qualifying for free agency.

Here’s more on the Marlins and the NL East…

  • Miami’s agreement with left-hander Wei-Yin Chen should put to rest the trade rumors swirling around Fernandez and Marcell Ozuna, writes Frisaro in a full column. By adding Chen (and extending Gordon), the Marlins sent the message that their goal is to contend in 2016. Adding Chen lessens the temptation to add a young arm by trading Ozuna, which would’ve simply created another hole in the outfield anyhow, Frisaro notes.
  • Within that piece, Frisaro reports that the Nationals made a run at Christian Yelich this offseason, floating a concept involving left-hander Gio Gonzalez going to the Marlins. He’s the second reporter to say as much, as Jon Heyman first mentioned the scenario about a month ago While I’d imagine that other pieces were involved in the Washington’s scenario, Frisaro hears that the inquiry “didn’t go anywhere,” which isn’t necessarily a surprise. The Marlins took Yelich 23rd overall back in 2010 and rewarded him with a hefty $49.75MM contract extension with a little more than one year of service time under his belt last offseason; the team is quite high on Yelich’s potential.
  • The Braves could end up going to an arbitration hearing with right-hander Arodys Vizcaino tomorrow, writes MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. Atlanta cemented itself as a “file-and-trial” team (one that does not negotiate one-year salaries after arbitration figures are exchanged) last season when it went to a hearing with left-hander Mike Minor. With figures set to be exchanged tomorrow at 1pm ET, there’s little time for the two sides to work out a deal, although GM John Coppolella voiced a desire to work something out. “Our hope is always to settle before numbers are filed, but we showed last year that we have no problem going to a hearing if we are unable to reach a number that works for our club,” Coppolella explained. Vizcaino is projected by MLBTR to make $1.1MM next season, although as a Super Two player, establishing a more significant base in his first trip through the process would make the right-hander exponentially more costly in his next three arbitration-eligible offseasons.
  • In a piece for Vice Sports, Mike Vorkunov spoke to former Mets vice president of player development/amateur scouting about his decision to jump ship to the NFL’s Cleveland Browns and the journey that brought him to baseball in the first place. DePodesta recalls some influential lessons he learned while interning for George H.W. Bush’s deputy assistant, Jim Pinkerton — an experience that changed the way he approached his understanding not only of baseball but life in general. Vorkunov spoke to DePodesta’s former colleague, Josh Byrnes (now a senior VP working under Andrew Friedman in L.A.) as well as former Harvard football teammates/coaches and current/former Browns employees. DePodesta explained to Vorkunov that he’s tried to learn about as many other industries as possible (healthcare, finance, etc.). “I’ll say this: the last 20 years in baseball, much what I’ve done is try to learn as much as I can about other industries, especially ones that I thought shared common characteristics to what we were doing in baseball,” said DePodesta. “Because I was always trying to learn how they dealt with similar interests to what we had.” Vorkunov’s lengthy piece gives an excellent look into DePodesta and what he and his unique background will bring to the NFL. To read more about DePodesta’s career change from a football perspective, check out MLBTR’s sister site, Pro Football Rumors.

Outfield Market Notes: Cespedes, CarGo, Cards, Upton

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The prolonged availability of Yoenis Cespedes on the free agent market has apparently drawn some bargain hunters. Jon Heyman reports (links to Twitter) that the Mets and Braves both have had at least some level of interest in an communication with the All-Star outfielder. New York is said to be willing to put together a two or three-year deal, per Heyman, while it’s not clear what Atlanta might be inclined to offer. The White Sox have previously been said to have interest that stops at three years. As I noted in the linked post, a big AAV and an early opt-out could be an interesting scenario, though Cespedes is still likely to exhaust all possibilities of a deal more commensurate with his big-time earning power after an MVP-caliber season.

Here are some more notes on an outfield market that has shown increased movement in recent weeks:

  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that the Braves would have to move an outfielder in order to sign Cespedes now that Hector Olivera is in the outfield. Moving Ender Inciarte, in theory, could make room for Cespedes as a stopgap of sorts in center field, he further tweets, though Atlanta would need to trade yet another outfielder once Mallex Smith is ready for a look in center (thereby shifting Cespedes to a corner spot).
  • Meanwhile, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reports that the Braves do indeed have some interest, though they’re only interested in a short-term pact as well. Bowman notes that even if Cespedes were to get to the point where he considered accepting a one- or two-year deal — an unlikely scenario — Atlanta would need to clear payroll in order to facilitate the acquisition. Asked by one of his Twitter followers about the odds of Atlanta striking a deal with Cespedes, Bowman likened them to the chances of winning the Powerball (Twitter link). While Bowman is clearly having some fun with that tweet, the fact that he is more or less dismissive of the entire notion is telling.
  • Rosenthal also reports (links to Twitter) that the Mets have received no indication from Cespedes’ agents that he’s willing to take a short-term deal. Cespedes remains committed to securing a longer-term deal — a concept to which the Mets have reportedly been averse all offseason long.
  • Several industry sources tell Ken Davidoff of the New York Post that they still expect Cespedes to take down a big contract. He traces the hold-up at the top of the outfield market to the standoff between Chris Davis and the Orioles.
  • Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez has drawn interest from the Orioles, Cardinals, White Sox, and Angels at times this winter, Heyman notes (Twitter links). (The team has also been contacted by the Nationals and Giants, both of which have since added outfielders.) We’ve heard recently, though, that Los Angeles probably can’t take on that kind of salary and has not spoken recently with Colorado. And Heyman says that the “sticking point” with the O’s has been that team’s unwillingness to part with young righty (and Colorado native) Kevin Gausman.
  • FOX Sports has a series of posts today regarding outfielders. Ken Rosenthal and Dave Cameron take opposing sides on the question whether the Cardinals ought to focus on adding an outfield upgrade. Rosenthal explains that the Phillies probably won’t make a value play for Justin Upton, in large part because their second-round pick is a valuable part of a talent-acquisition strategy. And Jon Morosi says that this year’s winter’s market for outfielders has gone in unexpected directions.

East Notes: Ozuna, Gordon, Francoeur, Mets, O’s, Castro

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Marlins center fielder Marcell Ozuna has enormous upside, assistant hitting coach Frank Menechino said in an interview today on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (audio link). Menechino noted that Ozuna’s early success came despite the fact that he was quite raw, explaining that he’s had to learn on the fly — even as expectations, contract considerations, and other pressures were converging. Ozuna, of course, has long been seen as a trade chip, although momentum seems to be shifting away from that scenario.

More from Miami and some other news from the eastern divisions:

  • The Marlins ought to make a long-term deal with Dee Gordon a priority, argues Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. After all, he suggests, his agents at Beverly Hills Sports Council might well try to argue that Gordon’s marquee accomplishments — leading the league in batting average, hits, and stolen bases while picking up a Gold Glove — support an outside-the-box arbitration payday. While MLBTR projects a $5.9MM salary in his second of four turns through arbitration, Gordon and his reps could always file for more and take their chances. Of course, as MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz explained in a recent podcast appearance (at about the 20-minute mark), Gordon’s meager home run and RBI tallies limit his arb-earning upside despite his other big numbers.
  • While the Marlins have been fairly quiet this winter, they are still looking to add some players. Jon Heyman tweets that the club has its eye on some right-handed bats, with Jeff Francoeur among them.
  • Mets GM Sandy Alderson and the rest of the organization’s leadership have managed to upset a segment of the team’s fans despite last year’s World Series run, writes Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. Of course, as Davidoff explains, appeasing a “populist” sentiment in the fanbase (as Alderson put it) with a big signing would hardly guarantee on-field success.
  • Young Orioles righties Hunter Harvey and Dylan Bundy are participating in minicamp and appear to be in good health, Roch Kubtako of MASNsports.com reports. Both have had very tough runs of bad luck, and certainly the organization will be holding its collective breath to see how they feel as they ramp up this spring.
  • Orioles skipper Buck Showalter said today that he could imagine slugger Chris Davis waiting to sign until late in camp, Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun reports. “That’s not surprising at all the way that camp does business,” Showalter said. “It wouldn’t surprise me if it went to February. It wouldn’t surprise me if it goes to March.” It’s probably not worth reading too much into those comments, since Showalter is obviously not privy to the specific strategy of Davis and his agent, Scott Boras. But his words do seem to hint at some frustration in the organization at the inability to achieve resolution one way or the other.
  • If the Yankees need someone to step in at third base for Chase Headley, the club could well turn to Starlin Castro, GM Brian Cashman suggested today. As Chad Jennings of the LoHud Yankees Blog writes, the newly-acquired infielder is still likely to spend most of his time at second, but his experience on the left side of the infield (almost entirely at short) could increase the team’s roster flexibility. Meanwhile, Cashman emphasized that Alex Rodriguez will not see time in the field.

Quick Hits: Rangers, Chi Chi, Upton, Gray, Span

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Rangers assistant GM Thad Levine and A’s executive Billy Beane appeared on the MLB Network Radio show with Jim Bowden to discuss offseason rumors (tweets 1, 2, 3, 4, 5). Levine spoke broadly about Texas’ approach in free agency, saying “we’ll stay in touch with all the agents for the existing free agents. If something does fall into our lap, we’ll be poised to strike.” Reports suggest the Rangers have some budgetary constraints in play, but the roster is already is decent shape.

Here’s more from around the league:

  • The Rangers have not offered pitching prospect Chi Chi Gonzalez to the Marlins for outfielder Marcell Ozuna. There is “no truth to the rumor,” per Levine, although he does confirm that the Rangers have talked shop with the Marlins and other clubs. Earlier today, we heard that Don Mattingly and Barry Bonds hoped to keep Ozuna with the Marlins.
  • Levine and associates are long time admirers of Justin Upton. The aforementioned budget constraints restrict the club from making a long term commitment. However, they’ll continue to monitor the status of his market.
  • The A’s have “resisted some pretty aggressive suitors” for starting pitcher Sonny Gray, per Beane. “We’ve been adamant with teams that we want to hang on to Gray.” He’s coming off arguably his best season in which he posted a 2.3 ERA, 7.31 K/9, 2.55 BB/9, and a 53 percent ground ball rate over 208 innings. Throughout his three season career, the 26-year-old has relied on inducing weak contact to keep runners off the bases. He’s under club control for four more seasons.
  • While outsiders often consider January to be a slow baseball month, Beane maintains that it can be very productive. The A’s are still trying to improve the club via trade. It’s also possible a free agent or two could slip through the cracks.
  • The Mets had interest in signing Denard Span before he agreed to terms with the Giants, writes John Harper of the New York Daily News. Per GM Sandy Alderson, payroll wasn’t a deterrent. “The biggest issue for us was the injury.” The Mets have not had a splashy offseason, but the additions of Neil Walker, Alejandro De Aza, and Asdrubal Cabrera feel similar to those of Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe during the season. While Johnson and Uribe were just role players, their arrival on the roster coincided with a surge in the standings. In particular, the addition of De Aza gives the club flexibility to take advantage of any free agents looking for a pillow contract with a contender – perhaps like crowd favorite Yoenis Cespedes.

Cafardo’s Latest: Ramirez, Upton, Gallardo, Chen, Ozuna

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With the recent Hall of Fame voting out of the way, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe looks at the case for former Red Sox star Manny Ramirez. Obviously, his offensive performance was magnificent, although lousy defense sapped his overall value. With confirmed PED violations after the so-called Steroid Era, voters may find it hard to select Ramirez. He also had a prickly reputation with the phrase “Manny being Manny” coming to represent his often oblivious frame of mind.

Here’s more from Cafardo’s column:

  • The Red Sox could consider signing free agent outfielder Justin Upton. Club president Dave Dombrowski is comfortable with a starting outfield of Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts, and Rusney Castillo, but there’s certainly risk involved with relying upon Bradley and Castillo. Either or both players could conceivably fail to produce at a league average rate. The Sox do have depth in the form of Chris Young, Brock Holt, and possibly Travis Shaw. However, Upton would give them a superstar presence in the middle of the lineup, and he won’t have the same difficulty in adjusting to left field as Hanley Ramirez.
  • Yovani Gallardo may be the next starting pitcher to sign. Scott Kazmir’s three-year, $48MM contract is a potential comparable. The teams involved in his market are hoping for a bargain on a two- or three-year contract, per Cafardo. He sees the Orioles, Blue Jays, Pirates, Royals, and Cubs as the best fits.
  • Fellow free agent starter Wei-Yin Chen has scared some teams away with a five-year, $100MM asking price. The Nationals and Cardinals “have taken a good hard look.” Chen, 30, can point to success in the always difficult AL East as justification for a nine-figure asking price.
  • Ten teams have inquired about Marlins outfielder Marcell Ozuna, but Miami coaches Barry Bonds and Don Mattingly are campaigning to keep Ozuna. They believe they can shape Ozuna into a star player. While owner Jeffrey Loria is said to be the impetus behind the club’s attempts to trade Ozuna, it’s also plausible he would defer to his newly hired, high profile personnel.
  • Some scouts still think there’s something left in Ike Davis’ tank. The Mets’ former top prospect has played for three teams over the last two seasons with exactly zero WAR in 666 plate appearances. Davis will likely sign a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training.
  • The Tigers and Mets are monitoring the market for Yoenis Cespedes. Based on Cafardo’s report, it sounds like both clubs hope to pounce if a strong suitor doesn’t emerge.
  • Meanwhile, Dexter Fowler could end up as a bargain. Cafardo predicts a three-year contract below the $31MM signed by Denard Span. He suggests the Rockies (if they make a trade) and Tigers as possible fits. Personally, I disagree with the valuation on Fowler. Like Span, he has a history as a high OBP, top-of-the-order hitter. The draft pick compensation tied to him is a deterrent, but he’s been much healthier than Span in recent seasons.
  • Talks between Chris Davis and the Orioles may have a drop-dead date. While the Orioles prefer a big left-handed bat, they may dip into the market for Upton or Cespedes. Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez is also a potential fit.

Quick Hits: Mets, Epstein, Giants, Padres

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The Mets want a reliever, but they’ll patiently wait for one to fall into their lap, writes Mike Puma of the New York Post. Antonio Bastardo and Tyler Clippard are both options, but GM Sandy Alderson doesn’t want to go beyond a one-year contract for either. Bastardo is asking for three-years while Clippard’s demands are unknown. Alderson has a history of finding relievers during Spring Training, and the club does possess decent, if unproven, depth at the position.

Here’s more from around the league:

  • Preliminary contract extension talks have occurred between the Cubs and President Theo Epstein, tweets 670 The Score. Cubs owner Tom Ricketts says the two sides are “generally on the same page,” with regards to the talks. Epstein is entering the final season of a five-year, $18.5MM deal signed in 2011.
  • Using Wins Above Replacement (WAR), Grant Brisbee of SB Nation analyzed the Giants’ offseason to date. He figures the additions of Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, and Denard Span over Tim Hudson, Tim Lincecum, Chris Heston, and Nori Aoki add up to eight wins on paper. Brisbee uses 2016 projections for the newly added Giants and compares them to the actual 2015 performance of the outgoing players. The upgrades cost a bundle of money, putting to rest complaints that the front office is stingy.
  • There is a feeling the Padres may be nearing an end to their shortstop search, writes Corey Brock of MLB.com. The club has used 18 shortstops since 2009, and their best prospects at the position are at least two years away. Free agents Ian Desmond and Alexei Ramirez have been most closely tied to the Padres. Desmond is coming off an ill-timed down season, and he has a history of suspect defense. When asked about what he wants from a shortstop, GM A.J. Preller said “I think in an ideal world, you want someone who is an intelligent player, a leader and captain of your infield, the ability to make the plays on the move, on the run, up the middle, in the hole. Someone, when the ball is hit to him late in the game, it’s an out.” While that may not sound like a taut fit for Desmond, Ramirez also had a choppy defensive season in 2015. While Brock doesn’t mention him, I wonder if the Padres might not be looking at Jimmy Rollins. He’s arguably the most sure-handed of the bunch.

NL East Notes: Alderson, Mets, Murphy, Swisher

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Mets GM Sandy Alderson made his first appearance with the media in quite some time today, and it was certainly good to see him back in the swing of things after the revelation that he had been diagnosed with cancer. The club’s top baseball decisionmaker told reporters that he’s back to full speed. (Via the Associated Press, on ESPN.com.) “I’ve been working 100 percent since really just after the winter meetings,” Alderson said. “I just couldn’t travel to Nashville that particular Sunday and Monday. Otherwise I would have been there. But since that time I’ve been in the office and fully participating.”

Here’s more from that appearance and some other notes from around the National League East:

  • Alderson added that the Mets are not shying away from spending, despite that perception in some quarters. As he put it, in rather interesting fashion: “The idea that we’re not investing in the team I think is really misplaced and sort of tied up in the populism involving [Yoenis] Cespedes.” Alderson went on to explain that the club’s payroll in 2016 could end up rising by as much as $35MM over its 2014 figure of about $93MM. (The club sat at about $110MM last year.)
  • Generally, said Alderson, the Mets acknowledge the importance of Cespedes and outgoing infielder Daniel Murphy to last year’s run, but he explained there was more to it than simply keeping the band together. “I think along the way we learned a few things about ourselves and about the team, and I think the way we’ve approached the offseason puts some of those lessons into play,” Alderson explained. “It’s not as if we’re not looking to improve the team, and, if possible, in significant ways. But it has to make some sense in terms of how these pieces all fit.”
  • Signing Murphy wasn’t the Nationals’ first choice, writes Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post, but the team believes that he makes for a good fit and addresses an important need. Boswell paints a fascinating picture of Nats’ GM Mike Rizzo’s negotiations with Murphy — conducted while laid up after back surgery — and notes that the organization feels it has largely done what it needed to this winter. While further moves could take place, it seems increasingly likely that a big trade involving the back end of the bullpen may not be forthcoming. And other roster spots — such as a fourth outfielder — could be filled with relatively minor moves, unless high-value opportunities arise. As for Murphy, Rizzo explained the signing thusly: “We were looking for the best left-handed value we could get, and this guy really plays the game the way I like: gritty, hard-nosed, but with a smart baseball mind. He can steal you a base. Situational hits. And the brighter the lights, the more he steps up.”
  • Bringing back left-handed-hitting utilityman Kelly Johnson could spell the end of Nick Swisher’s brief tenure with the Braves, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman writes. The most likely scenario, he suggests, is for Atlanta to showcase Swisher during Spring Training in hopes that he’ll do enough to draw interest from another team. If not other club is willing to pick up some of Swisher’s $15MM in remaining obligations, says Bowman, he could end up just being released.
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