What’s Wrong With Robinson Cano?
We’re on the eve of Major League Baseball’s All-Star Game, an event second baseman Robinson Cano has received eight invitations to since his career began in 2005. The former Yankee and Mariner is clearly one of the most accomplished second basemen in baseball history. However, in 2019 – his first season as a Met – the 36-year-old Cano has looked nothing like his usual self. His subpar performance played a key part in a miserable first half for the Mets, who’ve endured a chaotic three-plus months and limped to a 40-50 record thus far.
The Cano acquisition was one of many bold offseason moves by first-year Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, the potential Hall of Famer’s former agent. While inexpensive closer Edwin Diaz was likely the real target in the Mets’ return from the Mariners in a blockbuster December trade, it’s obvious there was confidence in Cano on New York’s part. Otherwise, the club wouldn’t have taken on four years and $100MM of Cano to land Diaz. Unfortunately for the Mets, though, neither player has performed to expectations this year.
The sweet-swinging Cano entered the year a lifetime .304/.355/.493 hitter (127 wRC+) with 56.7 fWAR – the sixth-highest total among position players from 2005-18 – as well as 311 home runs in 8,841 plate appearances. He offered similarly excellent production last year, though a fractured right hand and an 80-game performance-enhancing drug suspension cut his season in half.
Cano’s 2018 ban didn’t scare off the Mets, for whom he has batted a weak .240/.287/.360 (74 wRC+) with a mere four HRs in 258 trips to the plate. Cano has also accounted for a ghastly minus-7 Defensive Runs and a minus-3.5 Ultimate Zone Rating at second, a position he has typically handled with aplomb. To make matters worse, the once-durable Cano has endured a pair of stints on the injured list because of quad problems. During the 65 games Cano has taken the field, he has posted minus-0.5 fWAR – a stark fall from grace for someone who logged 2.9 during his shortened 2018 and has exceeded the 3.0 mark in nine seasons.
If you’re looking for causes for Cano’s awful offensive production this season, start with a power outage. His ISO’s at .120, 69 points lower than the mean he recorded coming into this season. It’s also 60 points worse than the league-average figure and 18th from the bottom among 195 hitters who have amassed at least 250 PA. As FanGraphs’ heatmaps indicate (pre-2019, this year), Cano typically showed a solid amount of power on the inner and outer halves of the strike zone before the current campaign. His power this year has been confined to the middle of the plate, though, and it’s not even as strong there anymore.
Cano’s still making plenty of hard contact – he ranks in the majors’ 83rd percentile in that category and its 77th percentile in average exit velocity, according to Statcast. But he’s pulling the ball less than ever, striking out a good amount more than he has in prior seasons and swinging and missing at a career-worst rate. A more aggressive approach – evidenced by a personal-high swing rate – hasn’t panned out, as shown by a career-low contact percentage.
When Cano has put the bat on the ball, he has only registered a .283 batting average on balls in play – down 36 points compared to 2005-18. There may be some poor fortune involved in that. As mentioned, he has hit the ball hard. There’s also a 28-point gap between his weighted on-base average and his expected wOBA. Still, though, Cano’s xwOBA is an underwhelming .307. That ranks in the majors’ 28th percentile, while his sprint speed (15th), expected slugging percentage (36th) and expected batting average (54th) are also mediocre or much worse. None of that’s conducive to a high BABIP or quality overall production, nor is Cano’s sudden uselessness against same-handed pitchers.
Although the lefty-hitting Cano has been much tougher on right-handed pitchers in his career, he has at least posed a threat versus southpaws. A lifetime .282/.333/.429 hitter (106 wRC+) without the platoon advantage, the 2019 version of Cano’s at a putrid .206/.275/.222 (43 wRC+) against lefties. Another look at FanGraphs’ heatmaps (pre-2019, this season) shows lefties have lived much more belt-high middle or on the outer half of the plate against Cano this year compared to prior seasons. He hasn’t found an answer yet.
Answers in general have been hard to come by for this year’s Mets, one of the season’s greatest letdowns to date. There may not be time for a team-wide turnaround in 2019, but if Cano returns to his pre-Mets form in the season’s second half, at least the club would have that to hang its hat on going into the winter. Right now, though, the acquisition of Cano looks like a massive misstep by Van Wagenen, who may have saddled his team with an albatross contract.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Wilson Ramos Discusses Mets’ Future
Wilson Ramos is in his first year as a Met, having signed a two-year, $19MM contract with the club last offseason. Amidst a disappointing few months in Queens, Ramos acknowledged the possibility this might be his only season in orange and blue. “If they make a decision to trade me, you know, it’s happened before in my career, so it’s not going to surprise me,” Ramos told Newsday’s Kenny DeJohn.
As DeJohn notes, Ramos has seen his playing time dwindle in recent weeks. Ostensibly brought in to be New York’s top backstop, Ramos has started just five of their last nine games, ceding playing time to 25-year-old teammate Tomas Nido. This doesn’t seem to be indicative of any health concerns, as Ramos tells DeJohn he’s surprised at his downtick in playing time.
Indeed, Ramos’ comments are especially noteworthy coming on the heels of reports Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard have developed a better rapport with Nido than with the veteran slugger. A glance at the respective catchers’ defensive metrics might offer an explanation. Baseball Prospectus tabs Nido as a slightly above-average pitch framer and ball blocker, in accord with his strong defensive reputation as a prospect. Ramos, meanwhile, rates near the bottom of the league in both categories. (In fairness to Ramos, he rated as an average defender between 2017-2018, so it’s possible there’s room for improvement).
Regardless of one’s opinion on pitch-framing metrics, that the Mets’ top hitting catcher hasn’t gelled with the club’s top two arms is obviously suboptimal. Ramos did catch deGrom Friday night for the first time in nearly a month, but Syndergaard has been paired with Nido in each of his two starts since the fireballer returned from the IL last week. The Mets, amidst organizational chaos, seem likely to sell off short-term assets anyway, and Ramos’ reported disconnect with the team’s top arms could make a change of scenery best for everyone involved.
Despite his defensive shortcomings, it’s not hard to see Ramos piquing some interest on the trade market, although any prospect return will be marginal and will require the Mets pay down some of the deal. His .275/.350/.413 line, while down from his career-best hitting in 2018, is still plenty formidable for a catcher. Ramos’ 105 wRC+ ranks ninth among catchers with at least 200 plate appearances. Even with midseason catcher trades being difficult to pull off, Ramos’ 121 wRC+ since the start of 2017 will interest some contenders.
Speculatively speaking, an AL club who can rotate Ramos through catcher, first base and DH to keep him healthy and creatively work his bat into the lineup might make the most sense, but it’s not hard to see an NL team viewing Ramos as a sufficient offensive boon to live with mediocre glovework behind the plate. The A’s, Rangers, Rockies and Pirates all remain on the fringes of contention despite lackluster production from their backstops. Texas, in particular, has set itself up to be a modest buyer with its surprising 47-42 record, and GM Jon Daniels noted last month that any acquisition would likely be under team control for 2020, as Ramos is. Pairing Ramos with Jeff Mathis, a gifted defender whose bat has cratered to unplayable levels, could give Texas a much-needed jolt behind the dish.
Regardless of Ramos’ ultimate destination, the Mets’ decision to pursue him last offseason, while understandable at the time, hasn’t gone as planned. While far from the team’s biggest blunder in their series of aggressive moves, the Mets may be left footing some of the bill for their veteran backstop to move elsewhere over the next few weeks.
Brodie Van Wagenen Reportedly Lashes Out At Mets’ Coaches
The fun never stops for the 2019 Mets, who’ve endured a nightmarish, drama-packed campaign after starting it with playoff aspirations. Following Friday’s loss to the Phillies, general manager Brodie Van Wagenen assembled the Mets’ coaching staff, including beleaguered manager Mickey Callaway, and “lashed out” over the fact that the team wasted ace Jacob deGrom‘s excellent performance, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports. Van Wagenen further expressed his displeasure by throwing a chair and ordering Callaway to go conduct his “[expletive] press conference,” according to Puma.
The GM neither confirmed nor denied the incident took place, per Puma, though Anthony DiComo of MLB.com and Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News tweet that it did indeed happen. If we’re to believe these reports, this looks like just the latest strange occurrence of the season for the Mets. Van Wagenen reportedly had deGrom pulled from a start June 1 because of a hip cramp, and just two weeks ago, Callaway and left-hander Jason Vargas got into a dustup with Newsday beat writer Tim Healey. Vargas’ actions reportedly left the team’s front office “incensed” and could hasten his departure either by the July 31 trade deadline or in the offfseason.
As with Vargas, it’s fair to wonder how much longer Callaway will continue with the organization. The club has gone a horrid 116-134 since it hired him entering last season, though that’s not to suggest he’s the lone source of blame. Led by the neophyte GM and ex-agent Van Wagenen, the Mets surely expected to wind up as deadline buyers this year. In January, when Van Wagenen was amid an aggressive offseason that was supposed to turn around the downtrodden franchise, he told the rest of the National League East to “come get us.” Three months into the season, the division has done just that.
Among their divisional foes and the entire NL, the Mets have bettered only the rebuilding Marlins as the All-Star break approaches. At 39-49, the Mets are a whopping 13 games behind the East-leading Braves and seven back of a wild-card spot. Frustrations are boiling over as a result.
Latest On Edwin Diaz
6:04pm: Diaz remains the Mets’ closer for now, Callaway announced Saturday (via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com).
9:48am: The Mets are considering removing Edwin Diaz from the closer role after another rough outing on Friday night, per Wallace Matthews of Yahoo Sports.
In the span of five batters in the top of the ninth inning last night against the Phillies, Mets closer Edwin Diaz unraveled once again. The half inning provided a microcosm of the season thus far for the moribund Mets. Diaz walked a batter and surrendered three hits, Wilson Ramos gave away an extra base with a throwing error, and the Mets past mistakes came back to haunt them once again – this time in the form of Jay Bruce, who singled in the go-ahead run before being lifted for a pinch-runner.
Mickey Callaway has little choice but to consider removing Diaz from the closer role. Diaz now carries a 5.67 ERA, a far cry from the 1.96 ERA he put together last year en route to 57 saves for the Mariners. The situation is further pressurized by the prospects whom the Mets surrendered for Diaz, who continue to climb up prospects boards as they near their new futures in Seattle. Robinson Cano, either the tax in the deal or Diaz’s sidekick, depending on your perspective, hasn’t helped matters either. Hampered by injuries, Cano has produced just a .244/.292/.368 batting line while drawing boos from the New York crowd.
The devolution of Cano isn’t all that stunning – though Brodie Van Wagenen clearly did not see this coming – but few expected Diaz to stumble into the All-Star break such as he has. How bad Diaz has been is a matter of debate, as he’s been worth -0.4 wins above replacement by measure of rWAR, whereas Fangraphs takes a brighter view, putting his worth on the year at a positive 0.4 fWAR. Neither are what the Mets hoped for, but by Fangraphs measure there is some hope that Diaz hasn’t lost what made him so special last season.
Looking at fielding independent metric, Diaz looks downright functional with 3.72 FIP and 2.87 xFIP. His 14.85 K/9 is only down a little from last year’s mark, while a .425 BABIP and 21.9% HR/FB% speak to a certain degree of poor luck. If Diaz can get the balls to stop leaving the yard, his overall numbers should rebound. Of course, it’s a zero sum game for closers, and no matter how the peripheral numbers look, the blown saves have piled up and forced Callaway to consider his options, such as they are.
Were there a deputy on hand to depose Diaz, his removal might be hastened, but it’s slim pickings these days in the Mets bullpen. Jeurys Familia has been an equal disaster, and Seth Lugo blew three saves from June 23-29. Robert Gsellman saved 13 games for the Mets last season, but his surface numbers (4.96 ERA) aren’t much better than Diaz. The lack of alternatives might buy Diaz some time to turn it around, but the watch is on.
Minor MLB Transactions: 7/6/19
The latest in minor moves from around the game…
- The Reds have released Zach Duke, per Mark Sheldon of mlb.com. Duke, now 36, has long been an effective reliever from the left side, but was viciously knocked around in 30 appearances for the club this season, posting identical 6.94 K and BB/9 marks in 23 IP. The lefty’s assortment of offspeed offerings has been death on same-side hitters for nearly a decade and a half now, but even southpaws crushed him this year, posting an eye-popping .250/.385/.500 slash through the season’s first half. He’s a decent bet to catch on elsewhere, given his track record, but the leash won’t be nearly as long this time around.
- Former Mets infielder T.J. Rivera has signed with the Long Island Ducks of the independent Atlantic League, tweets Jon Heyman of MLB Network, who notes that the 30-year-old took much of the early season off to “fully recover” from his 2017 Tommy John Surgery. Rivera posted consecutive above-league-average offensive marks in limited time for the 2016 and ’17 Mets, though the club never seemed keen on giving him a full-time gig. A strong Indy showing should land him a spot in affiliated ball, though it may be too late this season for him to make a mark.
Mets To Re-Sign Dilson Herrera
The Mets have reached a minor-league deal to re-sign infielder Dilson Herrera, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). Herrera had just opted out of his original minors pact with the New York club, but did not find a preferable opportunity elsewhere and elected to return.
Herrera has been off to a rousing start at the plate this year. Through 256 Triple-A plate appearances, he’s carrying a healthy .258/.355/.566 slash with 17 home runs. And it’s easy to forget that he only turned 25 in March.
Nevertheless, while he received other offers to join affiliates, Herrera was unable to command a MLB roster spot. He chose to take his chances on receiving an eventual call-up from the Mets, whose scuffling play could potentially lead to a mid-season sell-off that might create some openings.
Herrera was once seen as a future piece for the Mets, who picked him up in a 2013 swap, gave him a brief but unsuccessful MLB debut, and shipped him to Cincinnati in the middle of the 2016 season. He didn’t reach base enough in a showing last year with the Reds to lay claim to a job there, then re-joined the Mets on a minors deal.
Tigers Rumors: Boyd, Castellanos, Jimenez, Greene
The Tigers’ asking price on lefty Matthew Boyd continues to be an impediment for interested teams, Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reported this week on the Big Time Baseball podcast. Heyman notes that multiple GMs from other clubs used the phrase “over the top” when describing Detroit’s ask on Boyd, who whiffed 13 hitters in yesterday’s win but also continued his recent struggles with keeping the ball in the park by allowing a pair of homers. Boyd has fanned a ridiculous 32 percent of the hitters he’s faced in 2019 and walked just 4.5 percent of them; that K-BB% of 27.5 trails only Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer and Chris Sale, so he’s in some elite company with regard to his combined ability to miss bats and avoid walks. However, Boyd also allowed only seven homers through his first 12 starts (72 2/3 innings) but has now served up 12 long balls in 34 1/3 innings dating back to June 2.
Boyd is still just 28 with three and a half seasons of control remaining to go along with his elite K/BB skills (and a $2.6MM salary). His penchant for serving up the long ball also has to be a source of trepidation as teams weigh a pursuit of the lefty, though.
More chatter on the rebuilding Tigers…
- Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press provides an excellent look at a number of trade chips for the Tigers, listing potential suitors and, in some instances, pulling back the curtain a bit on previous trade talks. For instance, Fenech writes that the Tigers and Astros discussed a trade involving Nicholas Castellanos last summer, with Houston offering outfielder Derek Fisher in return. Castellanos’ stock has dipped since last year and he’s now a rental, but Fisher’s stock hasn’t exactly risen itself since last July. That still seems like a lofty ask for the Tigers to make for only two months of Castellanos, but the prior interest is nevertheless noteworthy now that Castellanos appears a near-surefire bet to be traded.
- In addition to closer Shane Greene, who is as obviously available as any player in baseball, right-hander Joe Jimenez is also available in trade talks, per Fenech. Multiple clubs, including the Mets and Rays, have inquired on Jimenez — a 24-year-old once heralded as Detroit’s future close. Jimenez averages better than 95 mph on his heater and has no issue missing bats (12 K/9 since 2017), but his control has long been shaky and he’s averaged 1.93 HR/9 in 2019. He’s also controlled through the 2023 season, so the Tigers have zero urgency to move him. Fenech adds that the Dodgers have inquired on Greene, though if anything it’d be more surprising if the bullpen-needy L.A. club hadn’t done so by now.
Minor MLB Transactions: 7/5/19
The latest minor moves from around the league…
- The Cardinals have released left-hander Tommy Layne from their Triple-A club, per the Pacific Coast League transactions log. Layne, 34, has previously pitched for the Padres, Yankees and Red Sox, last appearing in the big leagues with New York in 2017. He’s recorded a solid 3.61 ERA in 149 2/3 innings as a Major Leaguer and gave the Cardinals 29 innings of sub-2.00 ERA ball in the minors last season. However, Layne has been hammered for a 6.45 ERA in 37 2/3 frames this season while allowing 10.5 hits, 1.9 homers and 4.3 walks per nine innings pitched.
- Right-handers Casey Coleman and Louis Coleman (no relation) were both cut loose by the Mets, as first reflected on the International League’s transactions log. Casey Coleman, 32, started hot in Syracuse with a 3.06 ERA and 28-to-12 K/BB ratio through his first 32 innings. Since that time, he’s allowed 31 runs in 32 innings — largely on the strength of eight home runs. He’s pitched parts of four seasons in the Majors between the Cubs and Royals but never found much success. That’s less true of Louis Coleman, 33, who owns a lifetime 3.51 ERA in 177 2/3 MLB innings. Louis was in camp with the Tigers this year but didn’t win a roster spot for what would’ve been a second run in the Detroit ‘pen. He signed with the Mets in late May but surrendered nine runs on a dozen hits and eight walks with 12 strikeouts in 13 2/3 frames before being let go. Louis has a 2.49 ERA in parts of 10 Triple-A seasons to go along with his respectable big league track record, so he could certainly find a new opportunity based on that encouraging history.
Mets Still Pondering Trade Deadline Approach
This season has been a horror show for the Mets, who entered the campaign with designs on a playoff berth but have stumbled to a 39-48 record thus far. With the July 31 trade deadline just over three weeks away, the Brodie Van Wagenen-led club looks like a surefire seller. However, the Mets have told other teams they’re still in wait-and-see mode when it comes to the deadline, Buster Olney of ESPN tweets.
The Mets have shown no real life since a decent early start to the season. As lousy as they’ve been over the past couple months, though, the Mets still aren’t completely dead in the National League playoff race. While New York is 12 1/2 games back of Atlanta in the NL East, it’s a more manageable 6 1/2 out of a wild-card spot. That’s not an insurmountable total with three months remaining on the schedule. However, as the NL’s second-worst team, it’s going to be a massive challenge for the Mets to hop over 10 clubs with superior records in order to earn a playoff spot.
The greater likelihood is the Mets will indeed wind up selling off select veterans by the end of the month. Doing so would enable the team to somewhat improve a farm system that’s lacking – especially after the Mets traded top 100 prospects Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn to the Mariners in a winter deal for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz. Three months into the season, the disappointing performances of Cano and Diaz are among the reasons the Mets are in this unfavorable position.
There are two obvious trade chips on the Mets in right-hander Zack Wheeler and third baseman Todd Frazier, both impending free agents. Multiple teams have already shown interest in Wheeler, arguably the best rental starter who could change hands this month. Lefty Jason Vargas has perhaps pitched his way onto starter-needy teams’ radars, meanwhile, and there has been speculation about the Mets trying to move catcher Wilson Ramos. They may have buyers’ remorse in the first season of Ramos’ two-year, $19MM contract.
Better Rental: Madison Bumgarner Or Zack Wheeler?
It’s fair to say Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner and Mets right-hander Zack Wheeler are the two best soon-to-be free-agent starters who could realistically change teams before the July 31 trade deadline. Neither the Giants nor Mets are in contention, and there haven’t been any rumors about extension talks between the teams and the hurlers. Furthermore, both clubs’ farm systems are lacking, so trading Bumgarner and Wheeler could help the organizations better themselves in that area. The question is: Who’s the more desirable of the pair?
The more impressive track record belongs to Bumgarner, who will turn 30 the day after the deadline. He’s a three-time World Series champion and one of the most successful postseason pitchers in recent memory, which could matter to starter-needy clubs that have their sights set on fall baseball. Bumgarner owns a phenomenal 2.11 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 in 102 1/3 playoff innings, though he hasn’t pitched that deep into the season since 2016. More recently, Bumgarner has morphed into a mid-rotation starter, no longer the front-line stalwart he was when he was helping the Giants to championships.
This season, Bumgarner has pitched to a 4.02 ERA/3.96 FIP with a 35.8 percent groundball rate over 109 2/3 innings, and has seen hitters put up a .332 expected weighted on-base average against his offerings versus a .311 real wOBA. Those are respectable numbers, but they’re not those of a rotation savior. At the same time, though, Bumgarner has produced a K/BB ratio befitting of an ace. With 9.27 K/9 against 1.97 BB/9, he stands 17th in the majors in K/BB ratio (4.71). The fact that Bumgarner has recorded career-best chase and first-pitch strike rates has helped him in that regard.
Wheeler’s also 29, yet he doesn’t have a single inning of playoff experience. Still, there’s a case to be made that he’s a better asset than Bumgarner. This much is clear: On a $5.975MM salary against Bumgarner’s $12MM, Wheeler is noticeably less expensive. And while Bumgarner’s not going to intimidate anyone with his low-90s velocity, Wheeler attacks hitters with one of the hardest fastballs in the game – a pitch that averages upward of 97.2 mph. Wheeler has used his velo to register 9.71 K/9 versus 2.53 BB/9 this year, yet he hasn’t had an easy time preventing runs. Wheeler’s ERA is at a lofty 4.42 through 114 frames, but his FIP’s a much more encouraging 3.63, and he has induced grounders at roughly a 45 percent clip. He’s also outdoing Bumgarner in the wOBA/xwOBA department (.295/.302).
Undoubtedly, Bumgarner or Wheeler is a question playoff-caliber teams seeking starters have asked themselves in recent weeks, and it’s one they’ll continue debating leading up to the deadline. With both pitchers likely on the move in the next four weeks, they may end up having a large amount of say in this year’s playoff race and perhaps the postseason itself. Which of the two would you rather have?
(Poll link for app users)
Which starter would you rather acquire?
-
Madison Bumgarner 61% (5,151)
-
Zack Wheeler 39% (3,317)
Total votes: 8,468