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Offseason In Review: New York Yankees

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The Yankees used the winter to re-sign an American League MVP finalist and gamble on a pair of former high-end starters returning to form.

Major League Signings

  • DJ LeMahieu, 2B: Six years, $90MM
  • Corey Kluber, RHP: One year, $11MM
  • Brett Gardner, OF: Two years, $5.15MM (second season is a player option)
  • Justin Wilson, LHP: Two years, $5.15MM (second season is a player option)
  • Darren O’Day, RHP: Two years, $3.15MMM (second season is a player option)
  • Total spend: $114.45MM

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The biggest question the Yankees faced entering the offseason was whether they would bring back second baseman DJ LeMahieu, who thrived in their uniform from 2019-20 after they signed the ex-Cub and Rockie to a two-year, $24MM contract. LeMahieu turned into one of baseball’s premier players during that two-season stretch, even earning MVP consideration last year, so it was naturally going to cost the Yankees much more this time to keep him in the fold.

Thanks to shortstop Gleyber Torres’ ability to play both middle infield positions, the Yankees could have let LeMahieu walk and seriously pursued a trade for Francisco Lindor or Trevor Story or dipped into free agency for old friend Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien or Andrelton Simmons. Otherwise, they may have left Torres at short and signed, say, second baseman Kolten Wong, though their offense would have taken a major hit in that tradeoff.

LeMahieu garnered serious interest from multiple teams in free agency after rejecting the Yankees’ $18.9MM qualifying offer, but remaining in the Bronx was always his preference. After a drawn-out trip to the open market, the two sides came together on a six-year, $90MM pact. Six years is an especially long deal for a player who will turn 33 in July, but the Yankees made that commitment in an effort to lower the average annual value and skirt the luxury-tax threshold.

Staying under this year’s $210MM tax seemed to be an important offseason theme for the Yankees (whether that should be a concern for such a rich franchise is up for debate), as they didn’t give out any other big guarantees in free agency, instead structuring various deals to lower the AAVs of the contracts. Outfielder Brett Gardner, the Yankees’ longest-tenured player, and relievers Darren O’Day and Justin Wilson are prime examples; they inked pacts which include cheap 2022 player options that they’re unlikely to exercise barring nightmarish results in 2021.

Gardner and Wilson will both earn $2.85MM in 2021 before deciding on player options valued at just $2.3MM. Should they decline that player option, the Yankees would then hold $7.15MM club options over the pair — each with a $1.15MM buyout. Exercising the player option for either player would only mean guaranteeing an additional $1.15MM for himself. In Wilson’s case, that would trigger a third-year club option at the league minimum, making it even less appealing to exercise his player option for 2022. As for O’Day, his $1.4MM player option comes with a $700K buyout even if he declines, so there’s little reason for him to pick up his end of the deal. It’s a complicated series of accounting measures, but the end result was adding three solid veterans while remaining about $3.5MM shy of the luxury threshold.

O’Day and Wilson should help replace Adam Ottavino, who departed in a rare trade with the archrival Red Sox that saved the Yankees more than $8MM (another move driven by the luxury tax). New York’s bullpen figures to be strong yet again, although key setup man Zack Britton is off to an inauspicious start in 2021. The team will go without him for as many as three to four months because of arthroscopic surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow. The Yankees kicked off their winter by exercising Britton’s 2022 option for $14MM. Had they declined it, he could have opted for free agency this past offseason.

The Yankees’ starting staff underwent quite a bit of retooling, meanwhile, as mainstay Masahiro Tanaka went back to Japan, J.A. Happ signed with the Twins, and James Paxton reunited with the Mariners. Paxton and Happ were expected to leave, but it was somewhat surprising the Yankees made little effort to retain Tanaka, a quality regular-season performer from 2014-20 who earned a reputation as a big-game pitcher during his run with the club.

Instead of re-signing Tanaka, the Yankees took chances on two-time AL Cy Young winner Corey Kluber in free agency and ex-Pirate Jameson Taillon in a trade. The two hurlers are intriguing additions because of their potential, but they’re also wild cards. Kluber’s an ex-Indians workhorse, but the soon-to-be 35-year-old missed most of 2019 with a fractured forearm, and enemy offenses had their way with him during that 35 2/3-inning campaign. As a member of the Rangers last season, he made his first start of the season, lasted one inning and didn’t pitch again on account of shoulder problems. Taillon, 29, produced mid-rotation numbers with the Pirates from 2016-19, but he underwent Tommy John surgery – the second of his career – in the last of those years and didn’t take the mound last season.

Kluber and Taillon are sure bets to begin the year in the Yankees’ rotation, as is ace Gerrit Cole. But Cole seems like the only lead-pipe lock to succeed. As for the rest of the group, Domingo German missed last year because of a domestic violence suspension; Jordan Montgomery endured a trying 2020 in his return from a TJ procedure; Deivi Garcia, Clarke Schmidt (who’s down with an elbow injury) and Michael King carry little major league experience; and former No. 1 Luis Severino sat out almost all of the previous two seasons because of shoulder problems and Tommy John. Severino could come back this summer, but it’s anyone’s guess what he’ll give the Yankees. All things considered, it’s a risky bunch behind Cole.

Fortunately for the Yankees, if their rotation doesn’t live up to the front office’s expectations, the lineup still carries the ability to overwhelm opposing pitching staffs. Sluggers Aaron Judge (right field) and Giancarlo Stanton (designated hitter) missed a large amount of action with various injuries during the previous couple years, but they remain imposing threats at the plate. Elsewhere, LeMahieu and Torres make for one of the top offensive middle infield tandems in the sport; Gardner’s a capable fourth outfielder at the very least; first baseman Luke Voit led the majors in home runs last season; third baseman Gio Urshela carried his 2019 breakout into 2020; left fielder Clint Frazier finally broke out offensively in 2020; and center fielder Aaron Hicks, despite annual low batting averages and some past injury issues, has typically given the Yankees above-average production.

If you’re looking for question marks unrelated to injuries in the Yankees’ offense, catcher Gary Sanchez and outfielder Mike Tauchman come to mind. Sanchez has been inconsistent – sometimes tremendous, sometimes terrible – and was both a non-tender and trade candidate after a disastrous 2020. The Yankees ultimately kept Sanchez around for a $6.35MM salary, though they did explore possible upgrades in free agency when they showed interest in James McCann and Yadier Molina in free agency. Looking into McCann and Molina implies that Sanchez could be skating on thin ice with the organization. For now, he and and backup Kyle Higashioka – Cole’s personal catcher late in the season – remain intact as New York’s top two backstops, but veteran Robinson Chirinos is also in camp.

Tauchman was a great find for the Yankees when they acquired him from the Rockies heading into 2019, as he slashed .277/.361/.504 with 13 homers and accumulated a whopping 18 Defensive Runs Saved among all three outfield positions in 87 games. Tauchman was nowhere near that effective as either a hitter or defender last year, though. Now, with Gardner returning as the primary backup, Jay Bruce and Derek Dietrich in camp, and no minor league options left, it’s possible the Yankees will deal Tauchman in the coming weeks if they don’t think he’s worthy of a roster spot. Former Rookie of the Year runner-up Miguel Andujar also finds himself without an obvious path to regular at-bats, although unlike Tauchman, he has a minor league option remaining, so there’s no immediate need to make a tough decision on the 26-year-old.

Longtime general manager Brian Cashman looks as if he has put together another playoff-caliber roster. The Yankees appear likely to once again pile up plenty of runs in 2021, but whether they’ll be able to jump over the reigning AL East champion Rays, fend off the rapidly improving Blue Jays and then win their first World Series since 2009 will depend largely on how well their high-risk rotation performs.

How would you grade the Yankees’ offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

Grade the Yankees' offseason:
B 51.00% (3,636 votes)
C 23.59% (1,682 votes)
A 17.29% (1,233 votes)
D 4.38% (312 votes)
F 3.74% (267 votes)
Total Votes: 7,130

Zack Britton To Undergo Arthroscopic Elbow Surgery

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3:50 pm: Britton will undergo arthroscopic surgery to remove a bone chip in his left elbow in the next couple of days, per the team (via Twitter). Britton is expected to be shut down completely for six weeks, and he’s not likely to be back for another 3-4 months, per Andy Martino of the SNY Network (via Twitter). Justin Wilson’s presence in the bullpen will become all the more important for the Yankees in the first half.

8:38 am: The Yankees sent left-hander Zack Britton for an MRI yesterday after he experienced some discomfort in his left elbow following a bullpen session, manager Aaron Boone revealed to reporters this morning (Twitter link via ESPN’s Marly Rivera). Britton completed his throwing session as normal, but he began experiencing soreness in his elbow later in the day and was sent for imaging. Results are expected today.

Boone declined to speculate on a timeline, merely acknowledging that given the uncertainty, it’s of course possible that Britton won’t be ready for Opening Day. He did indicate that the issue is not believed to be related to Britton’s ulnar collateral ligament at this point (via James Wagner of the New York Times). Boone also noted that Britton was set back in his preparation for camp after contracting Covid-19 within the past couple of months. Britton himself recently told the New York Post’s Dan Martin about that matter, stating that the virus “hit me pretty good” in late January and caused him to lose a substantial amount of weight. The left-hander has not yet appeared in a Spring Training game.

Britton, 33, was outstanding for the Yankees in 2020, holding opponents to just four earned runs on a dozen hits and seven walks with 16 strikeouts through 19 innings of relief. His power sinker again resulted in an elite ground-ball rate (71.7 percent), as has become routine for the two-time All-Star. He went on to allow a pair of runs in 5 1/3 postseason frames.

That performance led the Yankees to exercise a $13MM club option over Britton for the 2022 season at the end of the 2020 campaign. Under the structure of his three-year deal, which covers the 2019-21 seasons, the Yankees had to either pick up that 2022 option a year early or risk Britton opting out of the contract’s third guaranteed year (2021). He’s now locked in as a Yankee through the end of his age-34 season.

Whether Britton is forced to miss time or not, the Yankees still project to have a strong bullpen in 2021. New York traded Adam Ottavino to the Red Sox a couple months back but reallocated much of the cost savings from that deal to low-cost signings of Darren O’Day and Justin Wilson. That pair of veterans will join Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green and ideally, Britton, in forming a strong veteran group to anchor the relief corps.

Luis Cessa, Jonathan Loaisiga, Brooks Kriske and Nick Nelson are among the other bullpen candidates on the 40-man roster, and the Yankees also brought in veterans Kyle Barraclough, Adam Warren, Tyler Lyons and Nick Goody on minor league pacts. Of course, selecting the contract of any of those non-roster veterans would come with some luxury-tax implications. The Yankees have ardently worked to remain south of the $210MM threshold and currently sit an estimated $3.5MM shy of that point, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez.

Injury Notes: Cain, Realmuto, Astros, Lowrie, Severino

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Lorenzo Cain recently strained his calf in batting practice and is expected to miss one or two weeks, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The injury is believed to be “very minor,” but the Brewers will be cautious in bringing the veteran center fielder back to action. Yesterday’s agreement with Jackie Bradley Jr. gives the Brewers cover at the position if Cain winds up needing more recovery time than expected. Manager Craig Counsell reiterated (via Murray) that Cain “is our center fielder,” so it seems Bradley’s ticketed for right field on most days if everyone’s healthy.

A few more injury updates:

  • Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto had his hard cast removed and replaced with a splint as he works his way back from a fractured right thumb, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com was among those to report. That’s a generally encouraging sign, as Zolecki notes that this had been the anticipated next step in his recovery. However, Realmuto still has not progressed to a point where he can hit or throw. It remains unclear if he’ll be ready in time for Opening Day. Something resembling a typical season from Realmuto, arguably the game’s top catcher, is no doubt a key piece of Philadelphia’s hopes of snapping a nine-year playoff drought.
  • Third baseman Alex Bregman and designated hitter Yordan Álvarez haven’t yet gotten into spring training games for the Astros, but it doesn’t seem there’s much cause for concern. Bregman “tweaked” his hamstring and is taking things slowly, notes Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. The 26-year-old would be playing through the soreness if it were the regular season, he says. Álvarez is a little further from game action, per manager Dusty Baker (via McTaggart), although that seems to be mere caution after the young slugger underwent season-ending surgery on both knees last August.
  • Jed Lowrie is seeing action in simulated games but has not yet been cleared to play in spring training games, Athletics manager Bob Melvin told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle). The former All-Star second baseman is back in A’s camp as a non-roster invitee after a two-year stint with the Mets that was ruined by injuries, most recently continued trouble with his left knee. Lowrie has taken just eight MLB place appearances since leaving Oakland after a stellar 2018 season.
  • Yankees right-hander Luis Severino continues to progress “really well” from his February 2020 Tommy John surgery, general manager Brian Cashman said this afternoon (via Erik Boland of Newsday). Severino had already moved to a long toss routine and soon should be able to throw off a mound, Cashman said. One of the best pitchers in the league from 2017-18, Severino has been limited to just 12 innings over the past two seasons by injury. His return would be a boon to a New York rotation that is high on upside but has plenty of risk behind ace Gerrit Cole.

Aaron Boone Hopes To Return To Yankees This Weekend

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MARCH 5: Boone is feeling well and going through standard COVID-19 testing procedures, he said Friday (via Lindsey Adler of the Athletic). He hopes to return to the dugout this weekend.

MARCH 3, 8:18 pm: The Yankees released a statement (on Twitter) with an update on Boone’s status: “As previously planned, Manager Aaron Boone will spend the night at St. Joseph’s Hospital to rest and recover. He is currently in good spirits.”

MARCH 3, 3:08pm: Bench coach Carlos Mendoza will take over for Boone during his absence, Joel Sherman of the New York Post was among those to tweet. Cashman confirmed to reporters that Boone shouldn’t miss much time, and the Yankees announced that the procedure went as expected.

MARCH 3, 2:22pm: The Yankees announced Wednesday that manager Aaron Boone will be taking an immediate medical leave of absence to receive a pacemaker. He’ll undergo surgery later this afternoon in Tampa. Boone offered the following statement:

As many of you know, I underwent open-heart surgery in 2009, and I wanted everyone to understand where I’m at regarding the procedure that’s taking place today. Over the last six-to-eight weeks I’ve had mild symptoms of lightheadedness, low energy and shortness of breath. As a result, I underwent a series of tests and examinations in New York prior to the beginning of spring training, including multiple visits with a team of heart specialists. While the heart checkup came back normal, there were indications of a low heart rate which, after further consultations with doctors in Tampa, necessitates a pacemaker.

My faith is strong, and my spirits are high. I’m in a great frame of mind because I know I’m in good hands with the doctors and medical staff here at St. Joseph’s Hospital. They are confident that today’s surgery will allow me to resume all of my usual professional and personal activities and afford me a positive long-term health prognosis without having to change anything about my way of life. I look forward to getting back to work in the next several days, but during my short-term absence, I have complete trust that our coaches, staff and players will continue their training and preparation at the same level as we’ve had and without any interruption.

There’s no clearly defined timeline for when Boone, who’ll turn 48 next week, will rejoin the club. However, the manager’s use of “short-term absence” and mention of getting back to work “in the next several days” indicate that he’s not anticipating a particularly lengthy leave. The Yankees noted that general manager Brian Cashman will meet with reporters later this afternoon, and the team will surely provide updates on Boone as he rehabs from the procedure.

Latest On Yoenis Cespedes

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Free-agent outfielder Yoenis Cespedes held a showcase in Florida that 11 teams attended on Tuesday, according to Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. The Yankees, White Sox, Brewers, Blue Jays, Tigers (one of Cespedes’ ex-teams), Padres, Rays, Reds, Marlins, Cubs and Braves were all on hand to watch Cespedes, per Davidoff.

As Davidoff notes, it’s interesting that the majority of clubs that scouted Cespedes are in the National League, which doesn’t appear likely to feature the designated hitter position in 2021. DH seems like the logical spot for Cespedes if he’s going to continue his career, as he hasn’t played the field since 2018, he’s aging (35), and he’s coming off four straight abbreviated seasons because of health issues. The two-time All-Star, most recently with the Mets, played in just 127 of a possible 546 regular-season contests from 2017-20.

Cespedes opted out of last season in August over COVID-19 concerns, but heel and ankle problems dogged him before then and helped make the four-year, $110MM guarantee he received from the Mets in November 2016 a disaster for the club. The two sides agreed to an amended contract in December 2019 that reduced Cespedes’ base salary from $29.5MM to $6MM, but New York didn’t get any bang for its buck out of that.

While Cespedes comes with question marks, he won’t land an expensive deal, which is one of the reasons so many clubs are considering him. When healthy, Cespedes has been a force at the plate, where he has batted .273/.327/.497 (124 wRC+) with 165 home runs in 3,490 trips. That track record could make him a worthwhile buy-low pickup for someone.

Minor MLB Transactions: 3/1/21

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Catching up on the latest minor league transactions…

Newest Moves

  • The Yankees announced that they’ve outrighted outfielder Greg Allen to Triple-A. Allen, whom the Yankees designated last week, will remain in MLB camp. The Yankees acquired Allen from San Diego in January, but he lost his roster spot when the team signed reliever Justin Wilson. Allen, 27, has batted .239/.298/.343 with eight home runs and 32 stolen bases in 618 plate appearances between the Indians and Padres.

Earlier Today

  • The Diamondbacks announced that right-hander Keury Mella has been outrighted to Triple-A, and assigned to the team’s Major League spring camp.  Mella was designated for assignment earlier this week.  The righty has been action in each of the last four MLB seasons, though only for 19 games and 27 innings with the Reds and D’Backs.  After signing a minor league deal with Arizona last winter, Mella had a 1.80 ERA over 10 frames of work, with an even 10 strikeouts against three walks.
  • The Red Sox outrighted Marcus Walden to Triple-A after the right-hander cleared waivers, and Walden is remaining in Boston’s big league spring camp.  Walden was designated for assignment last week to create a roster spot for the newly-acquired Marwin Gonzalez.  A veteran of three MLB seasons and 106 innings in the Show, much of Walden’s experience (78 innings over 70 games) came during a workhorse of a 2019 season, as he posted a 3.81 ERA and 23.24K% out of the Red Sox bullpen.  Walden struggled badly last year, however, with a 9.45 ERA over 13 1/3 innings and almost as many walks (nine) as strikeouts (10).

Quick Hits: Yankees, Cardinals, Diamondbacks

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Teams in need of a left-handed hitting outfielder might want to check in with the Yankees about the availability of Mike Tauchman. Though the Yankees have four years of control remaining, there may simply not be room for him on the opening day roster, writes the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. It’s not just the addition of Brett Gardner that could push Tauchman out of the picture, though that doesn’t help Tauchman’s case. He’s competing with Jay Bruce and Derek Dietrich for that fifth outfielder role, and that veteran pair both bring the ability to play first base as well. That’s not on Tauchman’s resume. After a surprising .277/.361/.504 line over 296 plate appearances in 2019 turned the 30-year-old into a valuable member of the Yankee reserves, the power dissipated in 2020. His bat slipped from 28 percent better than average to 22 percent below by measure of wRC+. Mike Ford’s playing time could also be at risk, but the backup first baseman has two option years remaining, whereas Tauchman would have to pass through waivers.

  • Matt Carpenter is not conceding his spot in the everyday lineup just yet, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Carpenter won’t take many at-bats from Paul Goldschmidt or Nolan Arenado at the corners, and he’s competing with popular upstart Tommy Edman at the keystone, though Edman can play the outfield, too. Had the universal DH made its way to the league this season, Carpenter likely would have lined up for many of those at-bats. As is, he’ll be hard-pressed to beat out Edman at second, even if defense wasn’t a consideration. After being a 133 wRC+ hitter from 2012 to 2018, Carpenter fell to 95 wRC+ and 84 wRC+ the past two seasons. His batted ball profile has generally paralleled that trajectory, with exit velocity and hard hit percentage down in 2019 and 2020 from where he’d been previously.
  • The Diamondbacks are promoting a new assistant general manager, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (via Twitter). Mike Fitzgerald was previously the analytics director, and he now joins Amiel Sawdaye as assistant GMs under Executive VP and GM Mike Hazen. Ross Seaton has also been promoted to director of pitching.

MLBTR Poll: Forecasting The Yankees Rotation

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Jameson Taillon is aiming for 120 to 150 innings in his comeback from Tommy John surgery, writes Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. Taillon has just 37 1/3 innings to his name over the past two seasons, and since this will be his second time coming back from TJ, there’s reason to temper expectations regarding his workload. Davidoff looks at PECOTA, Steamer, and ZiPS to get an idea for what the projection systems think Taillon can handle in 2021 – though the creators of the systems admit this is an area that requires guesswork. Still, it’s instructive to know that the three systems project 103 innings, 133 innings, and 106 1/3 innings – in line with Taillon’s thinking.

How those innings manifest might be the question for the Yankees. The mean of the three projections is 114-ish innings, which would be just under four innings per start over a full 30-game workload. That’s not likely to be the shape of Taillon’s 2021 production. We know that depth will be key in 2021 across the league, but thinking in this way about Taillon all but erases the possibility of a five-man rotation surviving the season.

While that’s an absolute best-case, rarely-achieved feat in the first place, it’s worth keeping in mind before getting frustrated when Deivi García, for example, doesn’t make an opening day roster, speculatively speaking. And while Clarke Schmidt’s injury doesn’t appear to be serious, it serves as a generous reminder that the injury bug can bite at any time.

As if Taillon didn’t cloud the Yankees’ projections enough on his own, the rest of the group doesn’t bring much certainty either – beyond Gerrit Cole, of course. The projection systems collectively tag presumptive No. 2 starter Corey Kluber with an expectation for about 137 innings in 2021, a forecast largely born from the fact that the soon-to-be 35-year-old managed just one inning in 2020 and 35 2/3 innings the year before. Still, Kluber was a workhorse before 2019, with five straight 200+ inning seasons with the Indians.

Jordan Montgomery slots into the No. 4 spot, and he logged just 51 2/3 innings over the past two seasons after undergoing Tommy John surgery himself. Somewhat remarkably, the starter with the most innings after Cole the past two seasons is the guy who missed all of 2020 under the league’s domestic violence policy: Domingo Germán. Germán made 24 starts and amassed 143 innings with a 4.03 ERA/4.72 FIP, 38.1 percent groundball rate, 25.8 percent strikeout rate, and 6.6 percent walk rate in 2019. Those are above-average walk and strikeout numbers. Germán faces his own uphill climb, of course. Given comments made by his Yankee teammates this offseason, there’s more than a little doubt about how well he’ll be able to re-acclimate to the spotlight that comes with donning Yankee pinstripes.

García will obviously be a candidate to join the rotation, as could other 40-man roster arms like Schmidt, Michael King, Nick Nelson, Alexander Vizcaino, Luis Medina, and Luis Gil. Veterans Jhoulys Chacin and Asher Wojciechowski are also in camp as non-roster invitees. Jonathan Loaisiga, Albert Abreu and Luis Cessa are expected to pitch out the bullpen, but they’ve spent time starting games in the past. The Yankees also hope to receive a mid-season boost when Luis Severino returns from Tommy John. Severino threw just 12 innings the past two seasons, but he was an ace in the two years before that, averaging a 3.18 ERA/3.01 FIP, 5.5 fWAR in 192 innings per season in 2017 and 2018.

Of course, no matter the starting five, most teams are going to call upon more than just their opening day rotation to toe the rubber. The Yankees themselves used nine different starting pitchers in 2020 over just 60 games. They used 12 in 2019, 12 in 2018, and 11 in 2017. Those units finished eighth, fifth and fourth in the American League by measure of FIP, ninth, third and third by fWAR. Yankee starters ranked third in the AL by both FIP (4.19 FIP) and fWAR (5.3 fWAR) last season.

Volume isn’t everything, but for pitchers, inning totals do often point to success, or at the very least, health. Given the uncertainty of the Yankees new rotation, what are your expectations? Who of the starters after Cole stands the best chance of surviving the season?

(Poll link for app users)

Who Logs The Most Innings In The Rotation After Gerrit Cole?
Corey Kluber 29.70% (3,073 votes)
Jordan Montgomery 27.47% (2,842 votes)
Domingo German 18.69% (1,934 votes)
Jameson Taillon 14.80% (1,531 votes)
Deivi Garcia 5.62% (582 votes)
Other 3.72% (385 votes)
Total Votes: 10,347

(Poll link for app users)

How Worried Should The Yankees Be About Their Rotation?
Kinda 36.09% (3,196 votes)
A little 25.59% (2,266 votes)
Very 25.06% (2,219 votes)
Only as much as every team. 7.53% (667 votes)
Not at all 5.74% (508 votes)
Total Votes: 8,856

Injury Notes: Naughton, Schmidt, Thorpe

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Angels prospect Packy Naughton has been diagnosed with a Grade 1 UCL sprain in his elbow, per Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic (via Twitter). Naughton is ranked 19th among prospects in the Angels’ system per Baseball America and 12th per MLB.com. Naughton joined the Angels at last year’s trade deadline from the Cincinnati Reds as part of the return for outfielder Brian Goodwin. He had been the Reds’ 20th-ranked prospect per Fangraphs’ mid-season report. Naughton will likely be shut down for a time, though he season would not be in jeopardy, given that a Grade 1 strain suggests there’s no tear in the elbow ligament. Still, any injury to the UCL raises the specter of Tommy John surgery, though jumping to that point would be premature at this time. It’s certainly an inopportune time for the 24-year-old. He wasn’t expected to compete for a rotation job, but he was likely ticketed for the Triple-A rotation, and therefore not too far down the line in terms of depth options for the Angels.

  • In brighter news, Clarke Schmidt says he has “relieved” his elbow injury and he expects to be back in action soon, per Erik Boland of Newsday Sports (via Twitter). The 25-year-old made his Major League debut for the Yankees, albeit in just a 6 1/3 inning sample. Regardless, he is competing this spring for his place in the line behind the Yankees’ top five starters. Having made just three starts in Double-A to round out 2019, Schmidt undoubtedly would have spent 2020 in Triple-A, had there been a minor league season. As is, he’ll be in camp with other young arms like Deivi Garcia, Michael King, Luis Medina, and Nick Nelson, trying to prove themselves ready to step-in for a particularly injury-prone New York rotation. Schmidt was shut down just over a week ago for what was supposed to be 3-4 weeks, though it’s possible he returns to action sooner.
  • After a difficult and vague leave of absence last spring, Twins’ southpaw Lewis Thorpe is healthy, back in camp, and in a better place mentally, writes the Athletic’s Dan Hayes. Said manager Rocco Baldelli, “I think the sky’s the limit for him. I think he’s a major-league starting pitcher that could definitely establish himself, at some point, hopefully in the very near future, and a guy that can throw a lot of innings. He’s got a very vast arsenal. He can do a lot of things with the baseball.” The Melbourne native has long been a guy with the tools to be a successful starter. Despite a 6.14 ERA/4.77 FIP across 44 big-league innings in 2019 and 2020, Thorpe is worth keeping an eye on. ZiPS is the most bullish of the projection systems, forecasting 106 innings and 1.1 fWAR at the Major League level. If nothing else, with injury concern baked in the back 60 percent of the Twins rotation (Michael Pineda, J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker), there is some room for some surprise production from someone in the Twins system.

Yankees Sign Justin Wilson

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11:45am: Wilson’s contractual terms are virtually identical to Gardner’s, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). He’ll be paid $2.85MM in 2021 with a $2.3MM player option for the 2022 season. If Wilson declines that option, the Yankees have a $7.15MM club option or $1.15MM buyout on him. The lone difference is that if Wilson exercises his player option for the 2022 season, the Yankees will pick up a 2023 club option worth the league minimum plus $500K. (The exact 2023 league minimum isn’t yet known due to the expiring collective bargaining agreement.)

As with Gardner, it’s quite unlikely that Wilson will exercise that player option, thus giving the Yankees a year of virtual league-minimum control over him — particularly when he’s guaranteed at least the $1.15MM buyout on the 2022 club option anyhow. But rather than a straight $4MM guarantee, this structure reduces the luxury hit to a more palatable $2.575MM.

Feb. 23, 10:40am: The Yankees have announced the signing of Wilson to a one-year deal. As with their signings of Brett Gardner and Darren O’Day, the contract contains a player option for Wilson and a club option for the Yankees that can be picked up if he declines. The player option structure will allow the team to artificially weigh down the luxury-tax hit on Wilson, as it’s considered guaranteed money for luxury purposes.

Feb. 15:  The Yankees and free-agent reliever Justin Wilson have reached a deal, pending a physical, Robert Murray of FanSided tweets. Sweeny Murti of WFAN first reported the pact. The Yankees were in discussions with Wilson over the weekend and looked to be progressing toward a deal then, so it isn’t a surprise that the ACES client is joining the team.

This will be the second Yankees stint for Wilson, who began his career with the Pirates from 2012-14 before moving on to the Bronx in a trade for catcher Francisco Cervelli. The left-handed Wilson was highly effective in 2015, but the Yankees nonetheless moved on from him after that season in a trade with the Tigers. The Yankees acquired right-handers Chad Green and Luis Cessa (who are still on their roster) for Wilson, who has continued to perform well dating back to that deal. Along with the Tigers, the 33-year-old Wilson has suited up for the Cubs and Mets since the Yankees first parted with him.

Wilson has been effective everywhere he has pitched, evidenced in part by his 3.27 ERA/3.54 SIERA and above-average strikeout percentage (26.7) over 429 1/3 innings. The hard-throwing Wilson has also surrendered comparable numbers versus lefty hitters (.291 weighted on-base average) and righties (.284), so regardless of handedness, the Yankees can be confident he’ll keep holding his own in 2021.

Along with the aforementioned Green, Wilson will join Zack Britton and fellow free-agent pickup Darren O’Day in giving the team another proven reliever in front of closer Aroldis Chapman.

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