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Yankees Sign Geoff Hartlieb To Minor League Deal

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The Yankees and right-hander Geoff Hartlieb are in agreement on a minor league deal, as noted in the transactions tracker on Hartlieb’s MLB.com profile page. The deal presumably includes an invite to big league Spring Training next year.

Hartlieb, 31 in December, got his start in pro ball as a 29th-round pick by the Pirates in the 2016 draft. The righty made a fairly speedy ascent up the minor league ladder in order to debut with the Pirates during the 2019 season. The then-25-year-old Hartlieb struggled badly in his first taste of big league action as he surrendered a 9.00 ERA in 35 innings of work during his rookie year, thanks primarily to a 10.5% walk rate and a whopping eight home runs surrendered during that time. Things seemed to turn around for the right-hander during the shortened 2020 campaign as he settled in at the big league level and posted a solid 3.63 ERA in 22 1/3 innings of work, but a look under the hood revealed that Hartlieb walked as many hitters (19) as he struck out that year.

In the years since then, Hartlieb hasn’t gotten very much playing time at the big league level. He’s appeared in the majors during the 2021, ’23, and ’24 seasons but has combined for a total of just 22 innings during that time, posting an 8.59 ERA with a 17.3% strikeout rate against a 16.4% walk rate across stints with the Pirates, Mets, Marlins, and Rockies. Colorado was his most recent stop, and he surrendered ten runs (nine earned) while striking out seven and walking four in nine innings of work for the club this year before being outrighted off the club’s roster back in June.

Despite his lackluster results in the majors, the right-hander has looked solid enough at Triple-A throughout his career with a 4.30 ERA and a 24.8% strikeout rate across 226 career innings at the level. His control leaves something to be desired even at that level, however, as he’s surrendered free passes to 10% of his Triple-A opponents over the years. For a Yankees club that’s currently playing in the World Series, the addition of Hartlieb is far from an obvious needle-mover. With that being said, however, the club’s bullpen has generated generally impressive results by utilizing players like Luke Weaver, Tim Hill, and Ian Hamilton who hadn’t been able to find consistent success at the big league level prior to joining the club.

Given the club’s solid track record of turning the castoffs of other organizations into quality big league contributors in recent years, it’s easy to see why the Yankees might think they could turn Hartlieb and his 97.3 mph heater into a legitimate big league weapon. Unearthing another hidden gem for the bullpen this winter could be extremely helpful for the club given the impending free agencies of Hill, Tommy Kahnle, and Clay Holmes. Each of those arms have been a major part of the club’s success this year, with Holmes in particular serving as the club’s closer in the early part of the season before being replaced in the role by Weaver down the stretch.

Doug Bird Passes Away

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11-year MLB veteran Doug Bird passed away late last month, according to an obituary from a North Carolina funeral home. The former Royals, Phillies, Yankees, Cubs, and Red Sox right-hander was 74 years old.

A California native in his early years, Bird was drafted by the Royals in the summer of 1969. He spent the next few years as a starter in the minor leagues before making his big league debut with Kansas City on April 29, 1973 as a reliever. His rookie season out of the bullpen was a strong one, as he pitched to an excellent 2.99 ERA in 102 1/3 innings of work. It was more of the same over the next two years, as Bird would go on to post a 3.01 ERA in 197 2/3 frames from 1974-75.

That strong resume in relief earned Bird a move into the rotation for the Royals’ 1976 season, though he still made 12 appearances out of the bullpen on top of his 27 starts that year. Bird was a solid back-of-the-rotation arm for the Royals that year, posting a 3.37 ERA that clocked in just above league average across his 197 2/3 innings of work. 1976 also saw Bird pitch in the first of three consecutive ALCS match-ups between the Royals and Yankees. He earned the win in Game 4 of the ’76 ALCS with 4 2/3 innings of one-run ball in relief of southpaw Larry Gura.

In 1977 and beyond, Bird moved back into a relief role. That change suited him just fine, as he told Norman L. Macht in a 2003 interview about his career that he preferred working out of the bullpen because starting pitchers were stuck “sitting around for four days doing nothing.” He took a bit of a step back in terms of productivity over his final two seasons with the Royals, as he surrendered a 4.52 ERA in 217 innings spread across 11 starts and 82 relief appearances before being traded to the Phillies in April of 1979. Bird’s stint with the Phillies was short-lived, however, as he struggled through one season with the club before being released by the club.

That led Bird to sign on with the Yankees, and he enjoyed something of a career renaissance with the club in the early 1980’s. While he donned pinstripes for just parts of two seasons, he was nothing short of excellent out of the Bronx bullpen during that time with a 2.68 ERA in 104 dominant innings of work. He was traded to Chicago partway through the 1981 season, however, and found himself moved back into a rotation role with the Cubs. The experiment went pretty well down the stretch that year, as Bird posted an above-average 3.58 ERA in 75 1/3 innings of work across 12 starts, but the 1982 season left much to be desired as he surrendered a 5.14 ERA in 191 innings before being traded to the Red Sox for the final season of his career. He pitched 67 2/3 frames for Boston before retiring that September at the age of 33.

Across his 11 seasons in the major leagues, the right-hander went 73-60 with a 3.99 ERA in 1213 2/3 innings of work. Those of us at MLBTR extend our condolences to Bird’s family, friends, and loved ones.

Tigers Had Trade Interest In Will Warren

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The Tigers had interest in right-hander Will Warren during their trade talks with the Yankees this past summer, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports.  The two clubs reportedly had a provisional agreement involving Jack Flaherty relatively close to being completed before New York backed out due to concerns over Flaherty’s medical records, though it should be noted that Heyman didn’t directly say that Warren was part of whatever trade package the Yankees were prepared to send to Detroit.  Flaherty instead was dealt to the Dodgers for two position players, one of whom (Trey Sweeney) ended up playing an important role in the Tigers’ surprising late-season surge to a wild card berth.

Ironically, Warren ended up making his MLB debut on the trade deadline day of July 30, and he posted a 10.32 ERA over his first 22 2/3 innings in the big leagues.  He also had a 5.91 ERA over 109 2/3 innings at Triple-A, though his minor league numbers were a little skewed by a nightmarish four-start stretch in May.  Scouts and evaluators generally view Warren as a back-end starter or perhaps a long reliever at the MLB level, and while the Yankees naturally want to keep pitching depth on hand, Warren could be a relatively expendable prospect in terms of future trade possibilities (with Detroit or any other teams).

Jon Berti Omitted From WS Roster Due To Hip Flexor Strain

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Jon Berti was the lone member of the Yankees’ ALCS roster that wasn’t included on the club’s roster for the World Series, though beyond tactics, health was the key factor in Berti’s absence.  Manager Aaron Boone told MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch and other media that Berti suffered a flexor strain in his right hip while running the bases in Game 4 of the ALCS.  Berti entered that game in the top of the ninth as a pinch-runner for Anthony Rizzo, came around to score what ended up as the game’s winning run, and then played second base in the bottom half of the frame.

How The Yankees Constructed Their World Series Roster

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As the World Series gets underway, we’ll take a look at how both teams’ rosters were constructed. In a battle of big-market behemoths, much of the heavy lifting was accomplished via free agency. The Yankees and Dodgers have each done a lot in trade and graduated some key homegrown contributors to complement their splashes on the open market.

A player drafted or acquired in trade who subsequently hit free agency and re-signed will be classified as a free agent acquisition. The player’s history with the organization is a key part of why they returned, of course, but the most recent transaction was nevertheless to sign them to a free agent deal. There are three such players for the Yankees, headlined by the expected AL MVP.

Let’s begin with a breakdown of how the Yankees built their first pennant winner since 2009.

Trade (11)

Nearly half the Yankees’ World Series roster was built via trade. There was none bigger than last winter’s blockbuster bringing Soto and Grisham to the Bronx. Soto is in line for another top five MVP finish after hitting .288/.419/.569 with a career-best 41 homers during his first season with the Yanks. Grisham hasn’t produced much in a fourth outfield role. The Padres aren’t kicking themselves either. San Diego got ace-caliber production from Michael King, while Kyle Higashioka took over starting catching duties down the stretch. Prospect Drew Thorpe, the secondary piece of the Soto return, was subsequently flipped to the White Sox as the headliner of the Dylan Cease package.

The Stanton trade isn’t far behind the Soto deal as a headline transaction. New York acquired the slugger coming off a 59-homer season in which he’d won the NL MVP award for the Marlins. It was largely a salary dump for Miami, which offloaded Stanton just three seasons into a 13-year, $325MM extension. New York sent back Starlin Castro and prospects Jorge Guzmán and José Devers, both of whom barely played at the MLB level. Stanton’s tenure in the Bronx has been often maligned, but he has three 30-homer seasons as a Yankee and is on a heater for the ages this fall.

New York landed Verdugo in a rare trade of significance with the Red Sox. While Verdugo has been the Yankees’ everyday left fielder, Boston will probably come away with more long-term value. The Sox landed middle reliever Greg Weissert and prospect Richard Fitts in a three-player return.

Chisholm and Leiter were deadline acquisitions this summer. New York sent three minor leaguers, headlined by well-regarded prospect Agustín Ramírez, to Miami for Chisholm. They sent two prospects (Ben Cowles and Jack Neely) to the Cubs for Leiter, a deal they’d probably like back after the righty struggled down the stretch.

Holmes, Trevino and Cousins were all wins for the pro scouting staff. The Yankees stole Holmes from the Pirates in a 2021 deadline deal that didn’t get much fanfare. New York sent infielders Hoy Park and Diego Castillo, neither of whom stuck in Pittsburgh, to take a flier on Holmes as a ground-ball specialist. He developed into one of the game’s top relievers, this year’s shaky second half notwithstanding.

New York landed Trevino just after Opening Day in 2022 in a deal that sent middle reliever Albert Abreu to the Rangers. Trevino has become a Gold Glove catcher in the Bronx. Abreu pitched in seven games with Texas before they lost him on waivers. He’s now pitching in Japan. (Left-hander Robby Ahlstrom remains in the Rangers’ system but isn’t a prospect of note.) The Yankees gave up nothing for Cousins, who was on a minor league deal with the White Sox when New York acquired him for cash in March. He went on to throw 37 innings with a 2.38 ERA.

The Yankees acquired Torres and Gil before either player made his MLB debut. Torres was the headliner of the 2016 deadline deal sending Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs. Chicago won’t have any regrets after going on to win the World Series, but Torres was a top prospect who developed into an All-Star second baseman. That’s the kind of prospect teams essentially never trade for rentals anymore. Gil was a teenager pitching in the Dominican Summer League with the Twins in 2018. New York landed him in a Spring Training swap for upper level outfielder Jake Cave, who has had a journeyman career. That’s a clear win for the Yanks’ scouting and player development staffs.

MLB Free Agency (8)

Judge went from supplemental first-round pick in 2013 to homegrown MVP. He hit the market on the heels of his 62-homer season in 2022. Judge fielded offers from the Giants and Padres before returning to New York on a nine-year, $360MM deal. The largest free agent contract in MLB history at the time, it dropped to second on that list when Shohei Ohtani signed with Los Angeles. Judge is on track for his second MVP and seems as if he’ll spend his entire Hall of Fame career in the Bronx.

The Cole contract was also a record which the Dodgers topped last offseason. New York signed Cole to a nine-year, $324MM deal during the 2019-20 offseason. That stood as the largest pitching contract ever until Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed for $325MM — albeit over a much longer term — in December. The Cole deal has been one of the most successful massive free agent signings in history. He’s coming off a Cy Young award and gets the ball in Game 1 tonight.

Rodón was another big investment from GM Brian Cashman and his staff. The hard-throwing southpaw landed six years and $162MM during the 2022-23 offseason. The first season was a disaster but Rodón righted the ship with a solid 3.96 ERA in 32 starts this year. That same winter saw New York bring back Rizzo on a two-year, $40MM free agent deal. The Yanks had initially acquired Rizzo in a ’21 deadline trade with the Cubs. He had a strong first season and a half in the Bronx, but the most recent contract has not panned out. They have gotten similarly middling results from last winter’s two-year, $37MM investment in Stroman. He had a 4.31 ERA across 30 regular season appearances and is in long relief for the postseason.

A couple low-cost bullpen investments have turned out brilliantly. New York first claimed Weaver off waivers from Seattle in September. They brought him back in free agency on a $2MM deal with a cheap club option for 2025. The move was generally met with derision from fans, but Weaver has been a godsend in the late innings and will close games in the World Series.

New York invested a bit more in Kahnle, inking him to a two-year, $11.5MM pact on the heels of an injury-plagued 2022 season. Kahnle has continued to battle injuries but been effective during his most recent stint in the Bronx. Hill signed for the league minimum in June after being released by the White Sox. He turned in a 2.05 ERA in 44 innings after posting a near-6.00 ERA with Chicago.

First-Year Player Draft (3)

All three of these players were selected in the first round. The Yanks grabbed Schmidt 16th overall out of South Carolina in 2017. Volpe was the 30th pick out of a New Jersey high school in 2019. New York took Wells a year later, grabbing the University of Arizona product with the #28 selection in 2020.

International Amateur Signings (2)

Domínguez was one of the highest-profile amateur signees in recent memory. New York signed him for a $5.1MM bonus out of the Dominican Republic. Injuries have kept him from getting an extended MLB opportunity thus far, but he’s still an incredibly touted young talent at age 21. Cabrera signed with minimal attention out of Venezuela in 2015. He has played a utility role for the past two-plus seasons.

Minor League Contract (2)

Cortes started his career as a Yankee draftee. The Yanks dealt him to the Mariners over the 2019-20 offseason. Seattle waived him a year later and every team opted against putting him on the 40-man roster. Cortes elected minor league free agency and returned to his original organization on a minor league deal. He made the team again in 2021 and turned in a 2.90 ERA in 93 innings down the stretch. That secured his spot on the MLB roster even before he made an All-Star team and earned a top 10 Cy Young finish with a 2.44 ERA in 2022.

Mayza was a longtime member of the Blue Jays. Toronto cut him loose in July. He signed a minor league deal with New York a few days later and has been in Aaron Boone’s bullpen since the middle of August.

Waivers (0)

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Yankees Announce World Series Roster

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Shortly after the Dodgers released their World Series roster, the Yankees did the same, officially revealing the 26 players who will suit up for the club in the Fall Classic.

The only change the Yankees made to their ALCS roster was swapping out infielder Jon Berti for left-handed pitcher Nestor Cortes. Cortes hit the injured list in late September with a flexor strain in his pitching arm and was unavailable for the ALDS and ALCS. However, he continued to work toward a possible return, going so far as to tell reporters (including Brendan Kuty of The Athletic), “If I have a ring and then a year off of baseball, so be it.”

Presumably, he will only be available out of the bullpen, but manager Aaron Boone is surely pleased to have the All-Star hurler back in any capacity. Cortes made 30 starts this season with a 3.77 ERA and 4.02 SIERA over 174 1/3 innings pitched. The Yankees went with an 11-man pitching staff against the Royals in the ALDS and a 12-man staff against the Guardians in the ALCS. By replacing Berti with Cortes, they are now carrying the maximum of 13 pitchers. That seems like a wise decision; Boone is going to need as many options as possible to keep this powerhouse Dodgers lineup at bay.

It’s not necessarily shocking that Berti was the odd man out, considering his poor performance so far in October. Over four games, he had two singles and a walk in 12 trips to the plate. That being said, one might have thought his top-tier sprint speed and ability to play all over the infield would help him keep his spot on the roster. Berti is the fastest player on the team, making him a strong asset as a late-inning pinch runner. The Yankees also have an abundance of outfielders, including Trent Grisham, who has yet to appear in a game this postseason. Meanwhile, Oswaldo Cabrera is now the only infielder on the bench.

In one additional item of note, Mark Leiter Jr. remains on the roster in place of Ian Hamilton. Hamilton was removed from the ALCS with a left calf strain and thus was unable to rejoin the team for the World Series.

The full roster:

Rudy May Passes Away

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Former MLB pitcher Rudy May passed away earlier this week at the age of 80, according to an obituary published in local North Carolina newspaper The Daily Advance. Jeff Pearlman first reported May’s passing yesterday. A veteran of 16 MLB seasons, May pitched for the Angels, Yankees, Orioles, and Expos during his lengthy career in the big leagues.

A left-handed pitcher, May grew up in Oakland alongside childhood friend and future Hall of Famer Joe Morgan. He impressed as one of the best pitchers in the area during his high school days before being signed by a Twins scout in 1962 and subsequently selected in the first-year player draft by the White Sox in 1963. By the end of 1964, May was already on the fourth organization of his professional career as he was traded to the Phillies by the White Sox ahead of the Rule 5 draft before being flipped to the Angels shortly thereafter.

It was with Anaheim that May finally made his big league debut in 1965, and the then-20-year-old hurler posted decent but unexceptional numbers in his rookie campaign. In 30 appearances (including 19 starts), May logged 124 innings of work but surrendered a pedestrian 3.92 ERA, which was 14% below average in the era just before the year of the pitcher in 1968. That would be May’s only big league action for years due to injuries he suffered in the minor leagues in 1965, but he eventually resurfaced at the big league level as a 24-year-old in 1969. That year, May posted a league average 3.44 ERA in 180 1/3 innings of work that solidified his spot on the Angels’ roster, and he’d spend the next five seasons as a quality back-of-the-rotation arms for the club with a 3.51 ERA (96 ERA+) across 948 2/3 innings of work.

He once again began the season with the Angels in 1974, but a brutal 7.00 ERA in his first 27 innings of work that year upon being pushed into a bullpen role prompted the club to deal him to the Yankees that summer. May experienced a revival in New York down the stretch, dominating the competition to the tune of a 2.28 ERA (156 ERA+) with 90 strikeouts in 114 1/3 innings of work over his 17 appearances (15 starts) in the Bronx following the trade. He followed up on that performance with an excellent 1975 season where he pitched to a 3.06 ERA (122 ERA+) in 212 innings of work in a mid-rotation role behind club ace (and future Hall of Famer) Catfish Hunter. Unfortunately, a step back in performance in 1976 led May to be traded once again, this time to the Orioles.

That 1976 season kicked off something of a lull in May’s career, as he reverted to the back-of-the-rotation form he had shown throughout his time with the Angels. In three seasons split between the Yankees, Orioles, and Expos from 1976 to 1978, May pitched to a pedestrian 3.71 ERA in 99 appearances, 92 of which were starts, and racked up 616 innings of work. That led the veteran southpaw to be moved to a relief role during his second year with the Expos in 1979, but the lefty dominated in the role with a sterling 2.31 ERA (160 ERA+) in 93 2/3 innings of work across 33 appearances, only seven of which were starts.

He’d continue to pitch in that sort of hybrid role upon being re-acquired by the Yankees in 1980, which turned out to be perhaps the best season of his career. Although May started only 17 of his 41 games played that year, he posted phenomenal numbers in the role as he led the American League with a 2.46 ERA (160 ERA+) while throwing 175 1/3 frames. The 1980 season also saw May, then 35, appear in the postseason for the first time in his career. The lefty was dealt a tough-luck loss in Game 2 of the ALCS against the Royals that October, as the Yankees lost 3-2 despite May pitching eight strong innings of three-run ball.

He’d return to the postseason in 1981 on the heels of a lackluster regular season, but this time he and the Yankees enjoyed some success. May made a solid relief appearance against the Brewers in the ALDS before posting a lackluster start against Oakland in the ALCS, but when the Yankees made it to the World Series opposite the Dodgers he managed to turn in 6 1/3 strong relief innings across three appearances even as his club eventually lost in six games. Overall, May posted a respectable 3.66 ERA with 15 strikeouts in 19 2/3 postseason innings during those years with the Yankees, which wound up being the only postseason outings of his career.

May pitched two more years with the Yankees following the club’s loss in the 1981 World Series and enjoyed a strong rebound campaign in 1982, and though he re-signed with New York on a two-year contract he made just 15 appearances in 1983 due to injury and missed the entire 1984 season with back issues before retirement. In all, May appeared in 535 games at the big league level and drew the start in 360 of those contests. He pitched to an above-average 3.46 ERA during his career and collected 152 wins and 1760 strikeouts across his 2622 innings of work in the majors. Those of us at MLBTR extend our condolences to May’s family, friends and loved ones.

World Series Roster Notes: Cortes, Graterol, Vesia

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The Yankees and Dodgers are going to be facing each other in the World Series for the first time since 1981. Since neither LCS went seven games, there will be a few off-days before the World Series is scheduled to begin on Friday. Between now and then, both clubs will be assessing some injured players to see if they could act as reinforcements for the final stretch of the postseason.

Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters today that there’s “a decent chance” left-hander Nestor Cortes will be on the World Series roster. Brendan Kuty of The Athletic was among those to relay that info on X. As for the Dodgers, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman was on SNLA last night and said there’s a chance both righty Brusdar Graterol and lefty Alex Vesia make the roster for the series, per Blake Harris on X.

Cortes landed on the injured list September 25 due to a flexor strain in his throwing elbow. He was shut down for about a week before starting to ramp up again, but hasn’t been on the Yankee roster for any of their postseason series so far.

Presumably, Cortes would be limited to a relief role in the World Series. He was largely working as a starter this year but has been out of action for about a month and has been throwing 10-15 pitch bullpen sessions lately.

The Yanks have had Tim Hill and Tim Mayza as their left-hander relief options of late. Both have been posting good results but in a low-strikeout, grounder-heavy fashion. Hill tossed 44 innings for the Yankees this year with a 2.05 earned run average, only striking out 10.4% of batters faced but with a massive 69.9% ground ball rate. His numbers in seven postseason appearances have been fairly similar: 1.59 ERA, 9.1% strikeout rate and 63.2% grounder rate.

Mayza tossed 18 innings for the Yankees this year with a flat ERA of 4.00. He struck out just 16.2% of batters faced but got grounders at a 55.4% clip. He has only been trusted to toss 1 1/3 innings in the playoffs thus far.

Cortes had a strikeout rate above 25% in each season from 2021 to 2023. That number dropped to 22.8% in 2024 but was still a solid mark. Pitchers can often rack up a few more Ks when moving from the rotation to the bullpen, throwing a little bit harder in shorter stints as opposed to pacing themselves for longer outings. Whether Cortes can do that or not might depend on his health, but if he’s in decent form, he should be expected to provide more punchouts than Hill or Mayza.

Vesia has made 232 regular-season appearances for the Dodgers in his career with a 2.89 ERA. His 11.5% walk rate is on the high side but he’s been able to offset that with a 32.3% strikeout rate. He’s been trusted enough to earn eight saves and 48 holds in that time.

He was on the Dodgers’ roster for the NLDS against the Padres but departed the final contest with an oblique/intercostal injury. He was left off the club’s NLCS roster but could potentially be back in the mix for the World Series. Anthony Banda is currently the only lefty option in the Dodger bullpen, so manager Dave Roberts would undoubtedly love to have Vesia back in the mix.

Graterol is more of a wild card as his 2024 has mostly been a lost season. He only made seven regular season appearances this year due to various injuries. He started the year on the IL due to both hip tightness and right shoulder inflammation, with the latter issue keeping him on the shelf until August. He made his season debut August 6 but left that outing with a right hamstring strain. He came off the IL in September and made six appearances that month but landed back on the IL in the final days of the season due to some more shoulder inflammation.

The on-and-off shoulder problems are concerning but the club might take a chance on him anyway. He’s been a key piece of their bullpen for years and was in good form as recently as 2023. He posted a 1.20 ERA over 68 appearances last year. His 18.7% strikeout rate was subpar but that’s always been his style. He limited walks to a 4.7% clip and kept batted balls on the ground 64.4% of the time.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players

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While the baseball world’s immediate focus is on the upcoming showdown between two behemoths, the offseason looms just after the World Series. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.

The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $21.05MM. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported in August that players who receive the QO have until November 19 to decide whether to lock in that one-year salary and return to their current team. If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.

No-Doubters

There’s zero suspense with this quintet. They’re going to receive qualifying offers, which they’ll easily decline. Soto is on his way to a record-setting deal. Adames and Bregman are locks for nine figures. Alonso has a solid chance to get there as well. It’s tougher to envision a $100MM contract for Santander, but he shouldn’t have any issue securing three or four years at an average annual value that’s around the QO price. As revenue sharing recipients, the Brewers and Orioles will get picks after the first round in the 2025 draft (assuming Adames and Santander sign for more than $50MM). The Mets, Yankees and Astros all paid the luxury tax and would only get a pick after the fourth round if they lose their qualified free agents.

Likely Recipients

We placed Hernández in the “likely” bucket last offseason when he was coming off a down year with the Mariners. Seattle opted not to make the QO and let him walk, citing a desire to cut back on the swing-and-miss profile that Hernández brings. That paved the way for the Dodgers to add him on a heavily deferred $23.5MM pillow contract. It was one of the best value signings of the winter. Hernández returned to peak form, bopping a career-best 33 homers with a .272/.339/.501 line through 652 plate appearances. That’s more than enough power to live with a few strikeouts and a fringy defensive profile in the corner outfield.

The cherry on top for L.A. is that Hernández remains eligible for the QO in his return to free agency. The Dodgers could accommodate a $21MM salary in the unlikely event that he accepts. As luxury tax payors, they’d only receive a pick after the fourth round in next year’s draft if he declines and walks. That minimal compensation is the biggest reason Hernández isn’t a lock, but he’s very likely to decline the QO in search of three or four years. The downside if he accepts is that he returns at a similar price point to the one Los Angeles offered coming off a rough season. Opting against the QO only makes sense if the Dodgers are fully committed to giving Andy Pages a look in left field next season.

Walker has seized upon a late-career opportunity with the Diamondbacks to develop into one of the sport’s best first basemen. He’s a Gold Glove caliber defender who topped 30 homers in both 2022 and ’23. He’d have gotten there again this season if not for an oblique injury that cost him the entire month of August. Walker had to “settle” for 26 homers with a .251/.335/.468 slash over 130 games.

The South Carolina product turns 34 just after Opening Day. He’s looking at four years at most and could wind up signing for two or three seasons. That could come at a comparable AAV to the qualifying offer price, though, and this is likely Walker’s only chance to really cash in on a multi-year contract. He’d likely decline a QO. If he didn’t, the D-Backs should be happy to have him back for another season at just over $21MM. The majority of MLBTR readers agree; more than 70% of respondents in a poll over the weekend opined that the Diamondbacks should make the offer.

Long Shots

It’s tough to see a qualifying offer for anyone in this group. Goldschmidt is the least likely. The Cardinals are entering a retooling year and he’s coming off the worst season of his career. The former MVP hit better in the second half than he did in the first. He should land a strong one-year deal but isn’t likely to get to $21MM.

Kim looked like a lock for the QO before suffering a late-season labrum injury in his throwing shoulder. He underwent surgery that’ll almost certainly sideline him into the early part of next year. There’s a decent chance he’d accept, which isn’t a great outcome for a Padres team that may enter the offseason already up against the budget. Payroll is a similar concern regarding Profar, who is coming off easily the best season of his career. He’s been wildly inconsistent throughout his decade-plus in the big leagues. San Diego baseball operations president A.J. Preller loves Profar, but $21MM+ is a lot for a team with a massive arbitration class and needs at shortstop and in the rotation. The Padres could try to bring him back for three or four years at a lesser annual hit.

O’Neill had a productive season for the Sox, hitting 31 homers with a .241/.336/.511 slash. He added three more IL stints to his lengthy career injury history, though, and the overwhelming majority of his production came against left-handed pitching. O’Neill’s righty bat provides a nice balance in a Boston lineup that skews heavily to the left side, but the QO price feels steep for this profile. There’s a strong chance he’d accept.

Torres would not have warranted a mention on this list a couple months ago. He had an excellent finish to the regular season (.306/.375/.417 after August 1) and has a .297/.400/.432 slash with more walks than strikeouts in October. That’s enough to at least get him back on the radar, but a QO still feels like a stretch. He’s a poor defensive second baseman whose overall season line — .257/.330/.378 in 665 plate appearances — was essentially league average.

At the trade deadline, the Yankees seemed set to turn the keystone to Jazz Chisholm Jr. and let Torres walk. They could keep Chisholm at the hot corner, but they’d need to overlook the flaws Torres showed for a good portion of the regular season. There’s a strong chance he’d accept a QO, which would put the Yanks on the hook for more than $44MM after accounting for the corresponding luxury tax hit. Tying that money up a week into an offseason where they’ll face a massive bidding war on Soto probably isn’t happening. That’s especially true since the compensation they’d receive if Torres declines (a pick after the fourth round) isn’t particularly valuable.

Ineligible

Players traded midseason or who have already received the qualifying offer in their career are ineligible for the QO. That’s largely a moot point with regard to the position player class, as no one from this group was likely to receive one anyways. Bellinger probably won’t opt out of the two years and $50MM left on his deal with the Cubs. Conforto and Pederson would’ve been fringe candidates at best even if they hadn’t received the offer earlier in their careers.

Poll: Who Wins The World Series?

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The most common rivalry in World Series history is being renewed for the first time since 1981, as the Dodgers and Yankees will meet for a record 12th time in the Fall Classic.  New York holds an 8-3 lead in the previous matchups, which included such iconic baseball moments as Jackie Robinson’s steal of home, Don Larsen’s perfect game, Reggie Jackson’s three-homer performance, and many more.

Now, a modern set of superstar players will square off.  Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Gerrit Cole, Teoscar Hernandez, Giancarlo Stanton, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be among those trying to win their first World Series rings, while the likes of Juan Soto and Mookie Betts are looking to add to their already-storied October legacies.

The L.A. lineup was simply too much for the Mets in the NLCS, as the Dodgers scored 46 runs over the six games.  While the Dodgers’ reliever-heavy pitching attack is still trying to cover innings amidst a lot of injuries to regular starters, the team is perhaps just pitching too well to really call it a “patchwork” staff any more — Los Angeles has recorded four shutouts in its last eight playoff games.

The New York offense was also too much for the Guardians in the ALCS, with Stanton and Soto in particular leading the way with a combined seven homers and 13 RBI over the five-game series.  Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Clarke Schmidt have also formed a powerful three-man front in the rotation, and Luke Weaver’s late-season emergence as the Yankees’ closer has continued into a largely dominant postseason.

The Yankees are looking to add to their record total of 27 championships, though they are in a relative drought by the franchise’s lofty standards.  This is only the second time in 21 seasons that New York has taken part in the World Series, with the only other appearance in that span coming in 2009 when the Yankees defeated the Phillies.  The Dodgers have “only” seven titles to show from their 22 trips to the World Series, but they have the most recent victory, capturing the 2020 Series that followed the pandemic-shortened regular season.

Since the Dodgers won 98 regular-season games to the Yankees’ 94 wins, Los Angeles holds the home-field advantage, so the World Series is set to begin on Friday at Dodger Stadium.  Just one question remains….what’s your prediction?

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