Yankees, Marcus Stroman Have Had Recent Discussions
The Yankees have held “productive” discussions with free agent right-hander Marcus Stroman recently, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com. There’s no indication that a deal is close at this time, but USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported over the weekend that the Long Island native had expressed interest in pitching for the Yankees (though the team hadn’t made an offer at the time).
On the one hand, signing Stroman is a straightforward means of addressing an obvious need for the Yankees. Beyond reigning Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole, the Yankees’ rotation is littered with question marks. Injuries torpedoed the bulk of Carlos Rodon‘s first season in the Bronx; he pitched just 64 1/3 innings with a grisly 6.84 ERA after signing a six-year, $162MM contract. Fellow southpaw Nestor Cortes was limited to a near-identical slate of innings (with better but still sub-par results — a 4.97 ERA) due to injuries of his own. Former top prospect Clarke Schmidt made 32 starts and piled up a career-high 159 innings but did so with a 4.64 earned run average. The Yankees traded Michael King to the Padres in the Juan Soto deal and saw Luis Severino sign with the crosstown Mets in free agency.
On the other hand, Stroman himself is coming off an injury-ruined second half of his second and perhaps final season as a member of the Cubs. The two-time All-Star had pitched his way into Cy Young talks through the first half of the season, compiling a pristine 2.28 ERA with a 21.4% strikeout rate, 8.7% walk rate and a massive 60% ground-ball rate in his first 16 starts — a span of 98 2/3 innings. Stroman, however, allowed 30 runs over his next 30 innings before hitting the injured list with a hip injury. While rehabbing that, he was diagnosed with a rib cartilage fracture that kept him on the shelf all the way into mid-September. Stroman returned to pitch eight shaky innings and then opted out of the final year and $21MM of his contract.
Given that end to his season, Stroman himself has some injury question marks. Beyond that, the Yankees in particular stand as a surprising fit to some extent, given general manager Brian Cashman’s prior and unusually candid remarks regarding the right-hander. In September of 2019, Cashman acknowledged to Wallace Matthews of ESPN that the Yankees held some interest in Stroman at that year’s trade deadline — Stroman ultimately landed with the Mets — before adding that they passed because they “didn’t think he would be a difference-maker” and that the right-hander “would be in our bullpen in the postseason.”
Perhaps some of that still holds true; the Yankees could well view Stroman as their fourth starter in the event that each of Cole, Rodon and Cortes are healthy. Then again, Stroman has pitched to a sharp 3.48 ERA in 514 innings since the 2019 trade deadline, fanning 21.4% of his opponents against a tidy 7.3% walk rate and complementing those marks with a terrific 52.5% grounder rate.
Regardless of where the Yankees feel he’d slot into the staff, there’s little doubt that Stroman is a clear upgrade for the team’s rotation. Stroman’s performance has been consistently better than average, and his perennially strong ground-ball rates have helped him post low home-run rates throughout his career (despite frequently pitching in hitter-friendly settings like Toronto and Chicago). The Yankees, whose own home park is friendly to hitters, have shown a strong preference for grounder-heavy pitchers in the bullpen (e.g. Zack Britton, Clay Holmes, Wandy Peralta, Joely Rodriguez), so it stands to reason that’d carry over to at least some extent in the rotation as well.
Marlins Hire Rachel Balkovec As Director Of Player Development
The Marlins have hired Rachel Balkovec to be their director of player development, per a report from Christina De Nicola of MLB.com. She has previously been managing for Single-A Tampa in the Yankees’ organization.
Balkovec, 36, has lots of experience working in the minor leagues, having originally been hired by the Cardinals in 2012 as an interim strength and conditioning coach. She later had the interim tag removed from that title in 2014. She jumped to the Astros in 2016, becoming that club’s Latin America strength and conditioning coordinator, learning to speak Spanish for the role. The Astros moved her to their Double-A affiliate in 2018.
Going into 2020, she was hired by the Yankees to be a minor league hitting coach and then got promoted to manage with Single-A Tampa prior to the 2022 campaign. She has held that gig with the Tarpons for the last two seasons but has now found another opportunity with the Marlins.
As noted by De Nicola, Balkovec has often been the first woman to hold these roles, being the first to become a full-time strength and conditioning coach in affiliated baseball, the first to serve as a full-time hitting coach in an affiliated organization and the first to be a full-time manager for an affiliate.
The Marlins have been undergoing changes in their front office in recent months, with general manager Kim Ng departing the organization as owner Bruce Sherman planned to hire a president of baseball operations to work above her. Sherman expressed concerns about the club’s track record in terms of drafting and developing prospects, something that Balkovec will now be involved in. Geoff DeGroot was let go as director of player development in September of 2022 but wasn’t replaced until now. Peter Bendix was brought over in November from the Rays, a club with a strong reputation for player development, to take the president of baseball operations role.
Yankees, Kevin Smith Agree To Deal
Infielder Kevin Smith has a deal in place with the Yankees. The player posted on X a picture of a kid, presumably Smith himself, in Yankee gear. The picture came with the caption “Headed Home for 2024.” The client of The Bledsoe Agency was born and played high school ball in East Greenbush, New York. Jon Heyman of The New York Post confirms that the two sides agreed to a deal, which Martín Gallegos of MLB.com reports to be a minor league contract. Hat tip to Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News for passing along the post from Smith.
Smith, 27, spent the past two years with the Athletics after coming over from the Blue Jays in the Matt Chapman trade. Between those two clubs, he’s received 333 plate appearances at the big league level over the past three years but has hit just .173/.215/.301 in that time. He exhausted his final option year in 2023. The A’s non-tendered him at season’s end even though he was still two years away from qualifying for arbitration.
He has hit much better in the minor leagues and that continued in 2023. In 183 Triple-A plate appearances, he put up a huge batting line of .324/.372/.653. That came in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League but it still amounted to a wRC+ of 137. He also stole nine bases in that time and lined up defensively at second base, third base and shortstop for the Aviators.
In the big leagues, his glovework at shortstop hasn’t received amazing grades but he has been given strong marks at third. He’s also seen some very limited time at left field and first base.
The Yankees project to have Anthony Volpe at shortstop and DJ LeMahieu at third base. There have been some rumors of Gleyber Torres trades, which would free up second for LeMahieu, but Torres is still on the roster. The club also has Oswald Peraza, Oswaldo Cabrera and Jeter Downs on the roster as utility/depth options. If Smith is able to crack the roster at any point, he has just one year and 63 days of service time, meaning the Yankees could keep him around beyond 2024 if they would like.
Yankees Interested In Jesus Luzardo, Shane Bieber
Earlier reports suggested that the Yankees were talking with the Marlins about their starting pitching, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds some specifics by writing that New York is interested in left-hander Jesus Luzardo. In addition, the Yankees have also checked in the Guardians about righty Shane Bieber, Nightengale adds.
These two pitchers represent the wide range of options the Bronx Bombers are considering are they seek out rotation help. Luzardo would be a longer-term add, as the 26-year-old is arbitration-controlled through the 2026 season and is only arb-eligible (projected for a $5.9MM salary) for the first time this winter. Bieber is projected to earn $12.2MM in 2024, which is slated to be his final season before free agency. Though Bieber is reportedly open to signing an extension with his new team in the event of a trade, that probably won’t be an option with the Yankees in particular, since New York so rarely breaks its unofficial team rule about offering contract extensions.
Because Cleveland almost always moves its higher-paid players prior to free agency, Bieber has been rumored as a trade candidate for years, and that speculation has been peaking now that he is entering his final year of team control. The Guardians have already dealt one veteran pitcher in Cal Quantrill this offseason, and given the talented by generally inexperienced nature of the rest of Cleveland’s rotation, the Guards could potentially opt to hang onto Bieber to further bolster its own pitching staff. There’s also the fact that Bieber pitched only 128 innings in 2023 due to elbow inflammation, and his numbers were only good (3.80 ERA) rather than the elite form he showed earlier in his career.
As much as Bieber could help the Guardians, however, it seems likely that the team wouldn’t hesitate to move a pitcher who might not be a part of their future in exchange for a longer-term asset. Whether or not the Yankees might match up well with the Guardians is another matter, as New York already dealt away a good chunk of their younger pitching assets in the Juan Soto deal, and the Yankees’ young infield depth might not hold as much appeal to a Cleveland team that already has plenty of young infielders.
Naturally the Bombers aren’t going to have much interest in dealing top minor league talent for just a year of Bieber’s services, yet they could be willing to explore such a move for three years of Luzardo. The left-hander is coming off his first full and healthy season as a starting pitcher, and the results were impressive — Luzardo posted a 3.58 ERA over 178 2/3 innings, with solidly above-average strikeout and walk rates.
As noted by MLBTR’s Nick Deeds earlier today, Oswald Peraza might have a clear appeal to the shortstop-needy Marlins, but it would take more just Peraza to pry Luzardo away from South Florida. It’s fair to assume that any number of teams have at least floated the idea of a Luzardo trade with the Marlins, and a demand of multiple top-100 prospects seems like a reasonable ask for Miami given Luzardo’s age, ability, and three years of control.
Unlike with Bieber and the Guardians, there is no ticking clock on Luzardo’s time in Miami, so president of baseball operations Peter Bendix would probably have to be bowled over by an offer to move the left-hander. The Marlins might well look to move a starter for hitting help, yet any of Edward Cabrera, Trevor Rogers, or even Braxton Garrett could be likelier trade candidates than Luzardo. With Sandy Alcantara missing 2024 due to Tommy John surgery, Luzardo and Eury Perez are lined up as the cornerstones of the talented Miami rotation.
AL Notes: Mariners, White Sox, Stroman, Yankees
The Mariners have been busy on the trade market of late, swapping Robbie Ray for Mitch Haniger and Anthony DeSclafani in a deal with the Giants while acquiring lefty slugger Luke Raley in a swap with the Rays that sent infielder Jose Caballero to Tampa. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto recently spoke to reporters (including Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times) about the deals and the club’s plans for the remainder of the offseason.
Dipoto described the moves as making the Mariners’ roster “more complete” than it has been at any point in the offseason and suggested that if the regular season were to start tomorrow, the club would be satisfied with its roster as currently constructed. The additions of Raley and Haniger certainly shore up the roster’s corner outfield spots, which were the most glaring holes on the roster following the departures of Jarred Kelenic and Teoscar Hernandez. Even as the outfield appears to be set, however, the club’s infield depth took a hit when Caballero was shipped to the Rays. That leaves the Mariners with just Josh Rojas, Luis Urias, and Dylan Moore to handle second and third base with J.P. Crawford entrenched at shortstop and Ty France penciled in as the club’s everyday first baseman.
Despite Dipoto’s vote of confidence in the roster as currently constructed, he left the door open to the Mariners making additional moves as the offseason continues. “…I don’t think we’re done,” Dipoto said (as relayed by Divish), “We still have the desire to find ways to get better. And we certainly have the flexibility from a roster standpoint to go do that.” While it’s unclear how much room the Mariners have remaining in their budget this winter, Dipoto’s comments certainly make it feasible that the club could look to shore up their infield depth before the offseason comes to a close. Gio Urshela, Whit Merrifield, and Amed Rosario are among the mid-level free agent infielders still available on the market.
More from around the American League…
- The White Sox are continuing to shuffle their front office after hiring Chris Getz as GM on the heels of the club’s midseason firing of Rick Hahn and Kenny Williams last year. According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, the club is hiring longtime Royals executive Jin Wong as an assistant GM. Wong will handle many of the duties previously assigned to assistant GM Jeremy Haber going forward, as Nightengale adds that Haber is expected to depart the club’s front office before Spring Training begins next month. Wong spent 24 years as a member of the Royals organization after first joining the organization in the scouting department back in 2000. Over his time in Kansas City, Wong filled a variety of roles before eventually rising to the title of VP of baseball administration and assistant GM.
- Nightengale also reports that free agent right-hander Marcus Stroman has approached the Yankees to express “serious interest” in signing with the club, though he adds that the club has not reciprocated that interest with a contract offer at this point. Stroman, whose free agency MLBTR profiled last week, pitched solidly with the Cubs last year en route to a 3.95 ERA and 3.58 FIP in 136 2/3 innings of work. While the Yankees are in the market for pitching, recent reporting has suggested that the club is focused on top-of-the-market southpaws Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery in free agency, both of whom are generally considered to be a tier above Stroman who stands as one of the stronger mid-market options remaining in free agency.
Latest On Yankees’ Starting Pitching Pursuits
The Yankees are well-established as seeking an arm to pair with ace Gerrit Cole at the front of their rotation. For much of the offseason, the club had their sights set on NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto, though they’ve had to shift gears in the aftermath of the right-hander’s decision to sign with the Dodgers last month. The club has seemingly stepped those pursuits up recently as recent reports have connected the club to both right-hander Dylan Cease via trade and southpaw Blake Snell in free agency. Jon Heyman of the New York Post provided an update on the club’s pitching pursuits recently, noting that “there’s a belief” within the organization that the club will be successful in adding a front-of-the-rotation arm before the season begins. Heyman adds that club chairman Hal Steinbrenner is “on board” with the idea of making a significant addition to the rotation, suggesting a willingness on the side of ownership to spend on rotation improvements.
Of course, commitment to adding a front-of-the-rotation starter and actually doing so are two different things, and Heyman reports that the club has continued to engage with Snell in free agency, though there’s a notable gap between the sides in negotiations. The same goes for left-hander Jordan Montgomery, though Heyman notes that the Yankees believe they have a better shot of signing Snell among the two southpaws. Montgomery, of course, was drafted by the Yankees in the fourth round of the 2014 draft and spent six and a half seasons in the Bronx before being shipped to St. Louis at the 2022 trade deadline.
Heyman suggests that Montgomery may prefer to return to the Rangers this offseason after winning the World Series with the club last year. Even if that’s the case, however, it’s worth noting that Texas’s front office has indicated the club doesn’t have much room in the budget for significant additions. That could pose a major roadblock to a Montgomery reunion in Arlington, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post recently reported that the left-hander is seeking a contract that would surpass the $172MM Aaron Nola re-signed in Philadelphia for back in November. That ask still positions him as cheaper than Snell, who Sherman notes is believed to be seeking more than $200MM this winter.
As for Cease, Heyman notes that the White Sox and Yankees face a “serious gap” in negotiations, with Yankees brass uncertain whether or not Chicago truly plans to move Cease before the beginning of the season and Heyman noting they’d face in uphill battle in outbidding other potential suitors like the Reds and Orioles for the righty’s services. With that being said, Cease isn’t the only player the Yankees are looking into on the trade market. Heyman reports that the club has discussed a trade with the Marlins as the club fields interest on lefties Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers, and Braxton Garrett as well as right-hander Edward Cabrera, though he adds that those sides don’t appear to be close on a deal, either.
Even so, the Marlins could prove to be a cleaner fit as a trade partner for the Yankees than the White Sox. Miami has a clear need for a starting shortstop as things stand; the club currently has utilityman Jon Berti penciled into the everyday shortstop role with the likes of Vidal Brujan and Xavier Edwards as potential depth options. New York, meanwhile, has plenty of depth in the middle infield, where 2023’s double play duo of Anthony Volpe and Gleyber Torres figure to block youngster Oswald Peraza from regular playing time in the majors. While the Yankees were recently granted additional flexibility in how they handle Peraza via a fourth option year on the slick-fielding infielder, the 23-year-old could make plenty of sense as the centerpiece of a package that lands the Yankees a quality rotation piece.
However the Yankees end up addressing their rotation woes, it’s clear that the club needs to make an addition. Each of Michael King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vasquez, Luis Severino, and Domingo German have parted ways with the club this offseason by way of either trade or free agency, severely hampering the club’s rotation depth. While Cole provides the club with a reliable, innings-eating ace at the front-of-the-rotation, both Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes are coming off 2023 season hampered by injuries and ineffectiveness. Clarke Schmidt‘s first season as a regular member of the starting rotation saw him perform on the level of a back-end starter, but without an external addition the club’s final rotation spot would go to an unproven arm such as Clayton Beeter or Luis Gil.
AL Notes: Angels, Tigers, Yankees
According to Robert Murray of FanSided, the Angels had interest in center fielders Kevin Kiermaier and Harrison Bader before they signed with the Blue Jays and Mets, respectively. The news isn’t necessarily a surprise given the club’s reported interest in bolstering the club’s outfield mix with the likes of Michael A. Taylor and Adam Duvall. Taylor, in particular, fills a similar role to Bader and Kiermaier as a glove-first outfield option who offers a plus glove in center field and roughly league average offense.
That being said, both Bader and Kiermaier are elite defensive center fielders who have received at least semi-regular playing time throughout their careers. Given their status as regulars best suited for center field, the Angels’ interest in the duo is noteworthy even in spite of the fact that both players have already signed elsewhere, as it could indicate a willingness to move franchise face and future Hall of Famer Mike Trout out of center field. Trout, 32, has logged nearly 93% of his 12207 1/3 career innings on the outfield grass in center, and his glovework has continued to rate well even as he enters his 30s with +3 Outs Above Average in 82 games last year.
Despite his solid defense and lengthy track record at the position, rumors of the Angels moving Trout out of center field have been floated somewhat regularly in recent years, dating back to 2022 when former Angels skipper Joe Maddon told reporters that the club was considering playing Brandon Marsh as the club’s regular center fielder. Moving Trout to a corner or even DH isn’t without logic; after all, he’s seen his star fade somewhat in recent years due to a rash of injuries that left him to play just 237 games in the last three season, or less than half of the Angels’ contests in that time. While Trout appears as capable of handling the position as ever when on the field, it’s possible moving down the defensive spectrum could allow him to stay healthier and remain on the field for the Halos going forward.
More from around the American League…
- Longtime Tigers slugger J.D. Martinez is currently a free agent after a rebound season with the Dodgers where he crushed 33 home runs in just 113 games. Earlier in his career, Martinez spent three and a half seasons in Detroit and found great success with the club as he slashed .300/.361/.551 with 99 homers in 458 games during his tenure with the Tigers. With Detroit on the rise after finishing second in the AL Central last year, adding a power bat like Martinez to the club’s lineup could make some sense, and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand indicates that the club is “believed to have some interest” in a reunion with the veteran slugger. With that said, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press pumped the breaks on a rumored connection between Martinez and the Tigers today, saying the club has not expressed interest in the veteran’s services this offseason with Kerry Carpenter penciled in as the club’s everyday DH.
- The Yankees have hired Pat Roessler as their newest assistant hitting coach, according to a report from Randy Miller of NJ Advance Media. Roessler has previously served as hitting coach for both the Expos and the Mets, and his stay in Queens coincided with the club’s NL pennant-winning season back in 2015. Roessler’s most recent role was as assistant hitting coach for the Nationals, though the sides parted ways earlier this offseason as the Nats overhauled their coaching staff. Earlier this offseason, the Yankees added James Rowson as their hitting coach and tapped Brad Ausmus to replace new Mets manager Carlos Mendoza as the club’s bench coach.
Three Yankees Eligible For Fourth Option Year In 2024
Yankees infielder Oswald Peraza and right-handers Luis Gil and Yoendrys Gomez are each eligible for a fourth option year in 2024, according to a report from Greg Joyce of the New York Post.
Typically, players have three option seasons with one used each season during which the player spends at least 20 days on optional assignment in the minor leagues. A player is considered to be on optional assignment when on a club’s 40-man roster but sent to the minor leagues while not on a rehab assignment. Both Peraza and Gomez were first added to the club’s 40-man roster back in November of 2020 and has been optioned to the minor leagues in each of the three seasons since, spending at least 20 days in the minor leagues each time. Under normal circumstances, that would leave them out of options headed into the 2024 season, meaning the Yankees would either have to expose either player to waivers before attempting to return him to the minor leagues.
Occasionally, teams are granted a fourth option year on certain players, typically due to the player missing significant time with injury. MLB.com explains that players with less than five full professional seasons (defined as at least 90 days on a major or minor league active roster) are eligible for a fourth option year. In Gomez’s case, the right-hander spend significant time on the injured list in both 2021 and 2022 due to a combination of COVID-19, shoulder issues and Tommy John surgery. That time spent rehabbing left him without full professional seasons in either year. Meanwhile, Peraza spent less than 90 days on active rosters in both 2018 and 2019, meaning the infielder has just four full professional seasons: in 2017, 2021, 2022, and 2023.
Gil’s situation is somewhat different than that of Gomez and Peraza, as the 25-year-old was actually added to the 40-man roster back in late 2019 and optioned during the 2020, 2021, and 2022 campaigns. However, the right-hander underwent Tommy John surgery in May of 2022 and did not return to a major or minor league active roster until September of 2023, meaning Gil did not participate in a full professional season in either of the past two years, making him eligible for a fourth option year as well.
The news provides the Yankees with additional roster flexibility regarding the three youngsters. Peraza, in particular, appeared headed into the 2024 season confined to a bench role backing up the club’s current infield mix of Anthony Volpe, DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres and Anthony Rizzo. The additional option year will allow the club to get regular playing time in the minors for Peraza, who has excelled defensively but sports a slash line of just .216/.298/.306 in 70 career games at the major league level, as the 23-year-old looks to continue his development while blocked at the big league level.
Meanwhile, the option years afforded to Gil and Gomez will provide the Yankees with optionable depth in both the rotation and bullpen, a valuable resource the Yankees appeared to be running low on after sending a five-player package including 2023 depth starters Randy Vasquez and Jhony Brito to the Padres as the return for star outfielder Juan Soto. Gomez made his big league debut in 2023 with a single appearance where he struck out four while allowing a hit and hitting a batter across two scoreless innings. Gomez’s major league debut served as a capstone for a solid 2023 campaign where he pitched to a 3.58 ERA in 19 starts at the Double-A level. As for Gil, the righty last pitched a full season in 2021 but made six starts for the big league club that year, pitching to a 3.07 ERA with a 29.5% strikeout rate in 29 1/3 innings of work.
Yankees Sign Cody Poteet To Major League Deal
January 5: The Yankees have now officially announced the signing.
January 4: The Yankees have signed right-hander Cody Poteet to a major league contract, reports Joel Sherman of The New York Post. Sherman adds that the Beverly Hills Sports Council client has already passed his physical. Poteet will make $750K in the majors and $200K in the minors, per Ari Alexander of KPRC 2. The club’s 40-man roster count was at 38 coming into today but they just claimed Bubba Thompson off waivers and this deal would fill out the roster once made official.
Poteet, 29, has a small amount of major league experience, having pitched for the Marlins in 2021 and 2022. He threw 58 2/3 innings in that time over nine starts and 10 relief appearances, posting an earned run average of 4.45. He struck out 21.5% of batters faced, walked 11% and kept 42.1% of balls in play on the ground. He also threw 14 2/3 innings in the minors in that time with a 1.84 ERA, 37.9% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate.
He underwent Tommy John surgery in August of 2022 and was outrighted by the Marlins at the end of that season. He signed a minor league deal with the Royals and he spent the year rehabbing, eventually making one Triple-A appearance late in September. Sherman says that the Royals and Poteet had a two-year minor league deal but with an understanding that the could opt out if he wasn’t selected in the Rule 5 draft and wasn’t subsequently added to the 40-man roster.
Poteet still has a full slate of options, so he can be kept in the minors if he doesn’t earn himself a job on the active roster. The Yanks traded away a decent amount of starting depth in the Juan Soto trade, with Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez all going to San Diego in that deal. They have Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes in three spots but are looking for rotation upgrades, showing interest in Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. Clarke Schmidt will likely have a job at the back end while Clayton Beeter, Yoendrys Gómez, Luis Gil and Will Warren figure to be in the mix as well.
Regardless of whether they sign another pitcher or not, Poteet should give them some extra depth. Since he has done a bit of starting and relieving, he could perhaps slot in wherever he’s needed, depending on the club’s needs and his own results. His service time clock is at one year and 145 days, meaning he could be controlled for five more seasons, with optionable assignments potentially pushing that back even further.
Yankees Interested In Dylan Cease
The Yankees were connected yesterday to free agent Blake Snell but it appears they are exploring the trade market as well. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Yankees, and the Orioles, have “sincere” interest in Dylan Cease. The O’s were previously connected to Cease and Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reported earlier this week that they “remain engaged” with the White Sox. Rosenthal adds that the Dodgers, Cardinals and Red Sox, all previously reported to have interest in Cease, are possibly still in the mix, with other clubs perhaps involved as well. The Braves and the Reds, who once had interest in Cease, appear to have moved on to other targets with Atlanta trading for Chris Sale and the Reds signing Frankie Montas and Nick Martínez.
Rumors have been flying around Cease all winter but he remains on the White Sox for now. About a month ago, it was reported that the White Sox were “pulling back” on the Cease talks. That wasn’t to take him off the market, but rather that the Sox wanted to wait until Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed to find out if clubs that missed on him would pivot to Cease as a fallback.
With the interest from the Yankees, that would appear to be exactly the case. They were one of the clubs that was heavily connected to Yamamoto before he signed with the Dodgers, leaving the Yanks looking elsewhere. They have considered Snell as well as free agent Jordan Montgomery but are checking in on Cease as well.
For the Yanks, they have Gerrit Cole cemented into the top spot of their rotation but things get less clear after that. Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes have the potential to be excellent contributors but both of them struggled badly in 2023, both with injuries and poor performance. Clarke Schmidt will likely be in the mix towards the back of the rotation, but the club subtracted from its depth in the Juan Soto trade, as Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez are all Padres now. Adding another starting pitcher, and having Rodón and Cortes bounce back a bit, would give the club a very strong front four, with Schmidt likely in the five spot and pitchers like Clayton Beeter, Yoendrys Gómez, Luis Gil and Will Warren providing the depth.
Cease would upgrade any rotation in the league, despite a relative down year in 2023. He had a 2.20 earned run average in 2022 but that figure jumped to 4.58 last year, though his underlying numbers paint a less drastic picture. His 2022 success wasn’t likely to be sustainable anyway, given his .260 batting average on balls in play and 82.3% strand rate, both of which are on the lucky side. Those numbers moved to .330 and 69.4% in 2023, pushing some extra runs across. His strikeout and swinging strike rates did tick down slightly but were both still well above average. His 3.10 FIP in 2022 jumped to 3.72 in 2023, suggesting a far less concerning shift, while his SIERA went from 3.48 to 4.10.
Looking at the past three years as a whole evens out some of that luck and paints and an incredibly flattering portrait. He’s made 97 starts since the start of 2021 with a 3.54 ERA and 29.8% strikeout rate. The 10.1% walk rate is on the high side but his 12.6 wins above replacement from FanGraphs in that time puts him eighth among all MLB pitchers.
His appeal goes beyond his skills, as his earning power is still capped by the arbitration system. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Cease for a salary of $8.8MM this year and he will be due a raise in 2025 before reaching free agency.
The Yankees currently have a competitive balance tax figure of $290MM, according to Roster Resource. They are set to pay the tax for a third straight year in 2024, which sets them up for escalating penalties. They are already above the third tier of $277MM and nearing the fourth and final tier of $297MM. That means they are facing a tax rate of 95% on current spending until they go over the last line and then have a 110% rate on spending from there.
Signing a player like Snell or Montgomery would likely require the Yanks to give out a salary of around $25MM or more, with the taxes effectively doubling that. Given that Cease will be making around a third of that salary figure, that would obviously make him more attractive.
But the flip side of that equation is that Cease will also require sending something to the White Sox in return, likely a very significant package of talented young players. The Yanks just sent away a big batch of young pitchers in the Soto deal and may be reluctant to make another sizable dent in their talent pipeline. As for what the Sox would be looking for, Rosenthal says they are “staying open-minded” and “not necessarily inclined to favor a team that could include major-league-ready pitching.”
With the O’s also having “sincere” interest, they might have an edge on the Yankees in terms of having the talent to get a deal done. Despite constantly graduating prospects to the major league level in recent years, they are still considered to have the top farm system in the league by many evaluators. Jackson Holliday is almost certainly untouchable but the club also has guys like Colton Cowser, Coby Mayo, Jordan Westburg, Samuel Basallo, Heston Kjerstad and Joey Ortiz without enough open positions for all of them.
The club has also shown a bias against bold moves, both in the trade market and free agency, which is why they have that loaded farm system and almost no money on the books. If they decide now is the time to strike, Cease would fit nicely into a rotation with lots of talent but limited experience. Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez are at the top of the rotation for now, after each showed encouraging signs in 2023, but Bradish has less than two full years in the big leagues and Rodriguez less than one. Then there’s John Means, who has hardly pitched in the last two years due to Tommy John surgery, and guys like Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin options for the back end.
As mentioned, clubs like the Dodgers, Cardinals and Red Sox may still be involved and that might not even be the extent of the market. But with Yamamoto off the board, it seems the pitching market is broadly heating up and a Cease trade could happen at any time now.