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The Yankees Have Found Their First Baseman

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It has been almost a full year since the Yankees and Cardinals made what looked like a relatively minor trade at the time. On July 28, 2018, New York shipped relievers Chasen Shreve and Giovanny Gallegos to St. Louis for first baseman Luke Voit and international bonus pool money. There was no apparent need for Voit for the Cardinals, who had Matt Carpenter at first base and Jose Martinez capable of playing the position, and there still isn’t now that Paul Goldschmidt’s a Redbird. On the other hand, Voit has been manna for the Yankees, whose first base production left a lot to be desired in the few years leading up to his arrival.

Aside from a resurgent 2015, injuries and age took their toll on Mark Teixeira in the final few seasons of his career. He retired after his production nosedived in 2016. Similarly, constant injury issues have derailed the career of Greg Bird, who was once Teixeira’s presumed heir apparent. The 26-year-old Bird’s inability to stay on the field helped coax the Yankees into taking a flier on Voit last season.

As just about everyone knows by now, Voit broke out as an absolute force after he first joined the Yankees. From his debut in pinstripes on Aug. 2 through the end of the year, Voit slashed .333/.405/.689 in 148 plate appearances and ranked second in the majors in isolated power (.356), third in wRC+ (194) and sixth in home runs (14). As you’d expect from those numbers, Voit packed a wallop.

Even in a lineup with the hard-hitting trio of Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez, Voit’s ability to inflict damage on the baseball was eye-opening. Voit placed first in the majors in barrel percentage and third in rate of balls hit 95 mph or more, per Statcast, which showed little difference between his second-ranked weighted on-base average (.447) and his first-place expected wOBA (.438).

Although Voit was nothing short of marvelous in 2018, his unexpected brilliance still came over a small sample of at-bats. There was skepticism leading into this season as a result. When I asked MLBTR readers in February to predict Voit’s 2019 OPS, most voters forecast a noticeable decline in comparison to what he did a year ago.

To some degree, those who expected Voit to come up well short of what he offered last season have been right. Good fortune played a part in his stunning output, after all. It would have been almost impossible for a slow runner like Voit to replicate last year’s .365 batting average on balls in play. Indeed, he’s down to .302 in that category as of this writing. Likewise, nearly 41 percent of his fly balls weren’t going to continue leaving the yard. They haven’t – he’s at just under 27 percent as he approaches the 60-game mark in 2019. Thanks in part to that drop, his ISO has plummeted to a still-effective .251. Furthermore, the right-handed Voit has shown a bit of vulnerability against left-handed hurlers – whom he crushed last year – while producing far less than he did in 2018 against breaking pitches in general.

Clearly, some of Voit’s marks have come to Earth this season. And yet, the 28-year-old has continued to serve as a legit offensive presence in his first full season in the Bronx. The production is hard to argue with – Voit has amassed 256 PA and hit .270/.383/.521 with 15 long balls, putting him on pace for 34, and the game’s 28th-ranked wRC+ (140). It helps that he has upped his walks by almost 3 percent while cutting strikeouts by exactly 3 percent. He’s also in baseball’s 93rd percentile or higher in both xwOBA and expected slugging percentage, according to Statcast. Voit’s .399 xwOBA outdoes an already imposing wOBA (.385), while his xSLG (.566) has a 45-point lead over his real slugging percentage (.521).

Thanks in part to Voit’s production, the Yankees’ lineup has weathered an early maelstrom of injuries – including to Judge and Stanton, among several others – en route to a 38-20 record. With that in mind, it’s getting harder to regard Voit as anything other than a major threat at the plate. He can’t flash the leather at first the way Teixeira could, but Voit looks like his real successor at the position. Not bad for someone who was a little-known minor leaguer with the Cardinals at this time in 2018.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Yankees Release Cliff Pennington

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The Yankees have released veteran infielder Cliff Pennington from his minor league contract, reports Conor Foley of the Scranton Times Tribune (via Twitter).

Pennington, 34, inked a minor league pact with the Yankees back in early April shortly after Miguel Andujar and Troy Tulowitzki both landed on the injured list. He appeared in 29 games with New York’s Triple-A affiliate in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, hitting .196/.306/.413 with five long balls, three doubles and a triple in 112 plate appearances. Pennington himself landed on the minor league injured list in mid May due to a hamstring strain. Foley tweeted that he was fielding grounders at shortstop earlier this week, and the Yankees formally activated him from the IL before cutting him loose.

The switch-hitting Pennington is known more for his glove than his bat. He’s a lifetime .242/.309/.339 hitter in 3142 trips to the plate over parts of 11 Major League seasons. The majority of those at-bats came with the Athletics, but he’s also spent three seasons with the D-backs, two with the Angels and partial seasons with both the Reds and Blue Jays. He has nearly 5000 Major League innings at shortstop, more than 1600 at second base and another 325 at the hot corner.

Dallas Keuchel Rumors: 6/4/19

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4:33pm: Joel Sherman of the New York Post takes a lengthy look at the situation, examining the possible reasons that Keuchel has yet to strike up a deal. As Sherman points out, even the prorated version of the $17.9MM qualifying offer value checks in close to $11.5MM, and few teams have that type of money budgeted this time of year. The Braves, for instance, are “uncomfortable” with that price point, per Sherman, while the Yankees are unlikely to exceed it, George A. King III of the New York Post writes.

Previous struggles from players who waited into the season to sign (e.g. Kendrys Morales, Greg Holland) have created concerns over what to expect from Keuchel. As a result, some clubs would prefer a lower base salary with per-start incentives — similar to the one Gio Gonzalez initially signed with the Yankees in Spring Training — but Keuchel and Boras would obviously prefer a full guarantee. Sherman adds that Keuchel’s camp has floated some multi-year scenarios with an opt-out after the 2019 season, but a straight one-year pact still seems likely.

8:55am: With draft compensation no longer a factor, a signing could come at any time for free agent starter Dallas Keuchel. As always, we’ll be on top of the latest developments in the market here at MLBTR.

We heard yesterday that the Yankees and Braves were among the likeliest possible landing spots for Keuchel, with a few other teams also among those with ongoing interest. Now, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter) takes things a bit further by labeling the New York and Atlanta organizations the favorites for the veteran southpaw.

Another source labels the Yankees the true favorites, Feinsand tweets. Braves beat reporters, meanwhile, have poured cold water on the idea of a move for Keuchel. (Links to Twitter.) It’s impossible to know when and how a signing will come together, but Andy Martino of SNY.tv tweets that there’s a sense resolution could come “relatively soon.”

As things stand, says Feinsand, the Yankees and Braves “are believed to be in the same area with their offers.” No doubt Keuchel and agent Scott Boras are hopeful that one of these or another team will create some separation in the financial department.

There has long been some uncertainty regarding Keuchel’s contractual demands and outlook. There’s little question he has backed down from any opening asking price, but there have been varying indications as to whether he’d accept (or even seek) a contract that wraps up at season’s end. If he’s only looking for a half-year arrangement, Keuchel will surely want it to be for a hefty rate of pay. But he’d assuredly also consider other factors with an eye already on a return to the open market.

Even if the Yanks and Braves are indeed “favorites” at the moment, it’s worth remembering that such a status means relatively little until the ink hits the paper. Other organizations are surely also engaged with Boras — the Cardinals, Rays, Brewers, and Twins have all been cited of late — and all are no doubt also canvassing the early trade market possibilities.

Latest On Dallas Keuchel

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Dallas Keuchel’s market, like that of fellow free agent Craig Kimbrel, figures to accelerate in the coming days now that he’s no longer tied to draft-pick compensation. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Yankees, Cardinals and Braves are among the favorites to land Keuchel — though as of yesterday, Keuchel and the Yankees were still a ways apart in terms of asking price. Earlier this morning, the Twins were also reported to have had recent talks with Keuchel’s agent, Scott Boras.

The rationale behind the Yankees’ interest in Keuchel isn’t difficult to see. Luis Severino has yet to pitch in 2019, primarily due to a lat strain that will likely sideline him into next month. Both James Paxton and CC Sabathia have spent time on the injured list, and Domingo German figures to be on some type of innings limit after throwing only 94 innings in 2018 between the Majors and minors (and 123 1/3 frames the year prior). Signing Keuchel would come with notable luxury ramifications for the Yankees, who’d pay a 32 percent tax on any dollar spent on him (per Jason Martinez’s luxury projections at Roster Resource).

The Cardinals, too, have seen some rotation issues pop up. Carlos Martinez has been moved to the bullpen after spending the beginning of the season on the injured list, while free-agent-to-be Michael Wacha has also been moved to a relief following an awful start to the year. Rookie Genesis Cabrera is getting his first look at the MLB level, but the Cards are in 1.5 games back in the tightly contested National League Central — a division where the difference between first place and fifth place is a mere span of 6.5 games at the moment.

Keuchel’s shedding of draft pick compensation matters less to the Astros than to others, since they were never in line to forfeit one of their picks to retain him and have known for a while they wouldn’t end up scoring a compensatory pick. But ESPN’s Buster Olney suggests (subscription required) that there may yet be a gap between what Houston is willing to offer and what Keuchel is seeking. The Astros offered Keuchel a one-year deal worth about $15MM early in Spring Training when he was still seeking a multi-year deal, according to Olney. Even though his asking price has come down since that point, he’s still reported to be seeking a one-year deal worth the $17.9MM value of the qualifying offer he rejected last November. Any such sum would be prorated over the course of the remainder of the season.

Yankees Reinstate CC Sabathia From Injured List

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Prior to tonight’s game against the Red Sox, the Yankees have reinstated veteran left-hander CC Sabathia from the 10-day injured list, according to an official team release. Sabathia is in line to start Sunday’s game for the Bombers.

Sabathia landed on the injured list on May 23 thanks to a bout with right knee inflammation. Thankfully for the Yankees, the injury didn’t keep him out of action for an extended period of time and his stay of the IL was a short one.

The big southpaw’s return to action certainly won’t be a walk in the park, though, as he draws a tough Red Sox lineup in primetime, though it’s a lineup that has mustered just four runs in the first two games of this weekend set in the Bronx.

Amidst an injury-riddled season for the Yankees, Sabathia has helped to counterbalance injuries to Luis Severino, Jordan Montgomery, and briefly James Paxton. Of course, Sabathia has not been spectacular, but the 38-year-old has offered stability to a team that has faced considerable adversity.

In eight starts, Sabathia has provided 41 1/3 innings of solid ball, working to a 3.48 ERA, though troubles with the home run ball (allowing 2.4 homers per nine innings pitched) are driving a less promising 6.27 FIP. Regardless, with Severino, Montgomery, and Jonathan Loaisiga on the shelf, the team will gladly welcome back the experienced Sabathia.

Latest On Didi Gregorius, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton

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There’s a “real chance” Yankees shortstop Didi Gregorius will rejoin the Bombers during their June 7-9 series in Cleveland, manager Aaron Boone said Saturday (via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). Gregorius, who has been working back from the Tommy John surgery he underwent on his right elbow last October, began a minor league rehab assignment last weekend.

Surprisingly, despite the absences of Gregorius and a slew of other integral players, the Yankees own the American League’s second-best record at 37-19. Gleyber Torres has stepped up to man shortstop in Gregorius’ place, while free-agent addition DJ LeMahieu has handled second base with aplomb and third bagger Gio Urshela has been one of the game’s unexpected success stories thus far. But the Yankees are understandably excited for the arrival of the 29-year-old Gregorius, who hit .277/.326/.486 (114 wRC+) with 52 home runs and 8.7 fWAR in 1,139 plate appearances from 2017-18.

Like Gregorius, outfielders Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton have been among prominent wounded Yankees in 2019. They’re seemingly inching closer to comebacks, though, as George A. King III of the New York Post explains. Judge, out since April 21 thanks to a left oblique strain, has begun taking fly balls. And Stanton’s “probably getting close to starting that rehab assignment,” according to Boone. New York sent Stanton to the IL three games into the season with a left biceps strain, but he has since suffered multiple other left side injuries (shoulder, calf) that have halted his progress.

Judge and Stanton accounted for 65 home runs in 250 games a year ago, but their injuries have limited them to five HRs (all from Judge) in 23 contests in 2019. While the hulking sluggers are arguably the Yankees’ top two offensive players, the club has gotten by in the outfield with respectable performances from Brett Gardner, Clint Frazier, Cameron Maybin and Mike Tauchman. And although he hasn’t posted good numbers so far this season, it helps that New York recently got back center fielder Aaron Hicks. The Yankees activated Hicks off the IL on May 13 after he missed the first month and a half of the year because of lower back problems.

Poll: Choose Your Franchise Catcher

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Although potential Hall of Famers Buster Posey and Yadier Molina are among the most decorated catchers in baseball history, it appears the two 30-somethings have given way to a new guard at the position. J.T. Realmuto, Gary Sanchez and Willson Contreras stand out as the most valuable behind-the-plate building blocks in today’s game, owing to performance, age and affordable control. The Brewers’ Yasmani Grandal also belongs in the current class of elite backstops, but the fact that he’s 30 years old, expensive and only signed through this season works against him in comparison to Realmuto, Contreras and Sanchez.

Among those three, the longest big league track record belongs to the Phillies’ Realmuto, who’s in his age-28 season. The athletic Realmuto broke out with the Marlins in 2016 and proceeded to rack up 11.3 fWAR through last year, trailing only Posey and Grandal at his position. He’s fresh off back-to-back 4.0-fWAR seasons and is on a similar pace in his first year as a Phillie.

So far in his new digs, Realmuto has accounted for 2.0 fWAR through 208 plate appearances. While Realmuto’s offensive production has dropped from where it was over the previous three seasons (115 wRC+), his 102 wRC+ remains far above average for his position (89). He’s also an all-world defensive player who possesses far more speed than you’d expect a catcher to have. If there’s one check against Realmuto, it’s that he’s only under control for another season after this one, in which he’s earning $5.9MM.

No full-time catcher has fared better at the plate this season than the hard-hitting Sanchez, whose 154 wRC+ ranks 18th among all players with at least 100 PA. The 26-year-old has mashed 17 home runs, good for a fifth-place tie, to put an uninspiring 2018 behind him. Sanchez combined for 7.5 fWAR from 2016-17, his first two seasons, but fell to 1.7 in ’18 and sits well behind Realmuto this season (1.2). Although Sanchez has a big arm, he’s not in Realmuto’s stratosphere as an overall defender. However, Sanchez is making barely over the league minimum this year and comes with three more seasons of control via arbitration.

Contreras, who turned 27 on May 13, has been a revelation at the plate since he debuted in 2016. Dating back to then, Contreras’ 119 wRC+ ranks second among backstops (only Sanchez’s 128 has been better), while his 7.5 fWAR is eighth. He’s at 152 and 1.7 in those categories this year, having swatted 12 homers and gotten on base at a 40 percent clip. Although Contreras has not gotten rave reviews behind the plate this season or for most of his career, his offense, age and affordability are all huge pluses. Like Sanchez, he’s in his final pre-arb season and controllable through 2022.

Considering all of the above factors, which of these three catchers would you want to build a team around?

(poll link for app users)

Yankees Notes: Sabathia, Didi

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  • C.C. Sabathia is lined up to start for the Yankees on Sunday, manager Aaron Boone told MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch (Twitter link) and other reporters.  Sabathia was placed on the IL on May 23 due to right knee inflammation, and it ended up being both a short absence, and a fairly standard one for a veteran player with a long history of knee surgeries.  Boone noted that Sabathia threw a bullpen session today, so all systems seem to be a go for the left-hander’s 547th career start.  Sabathia has a 3.48 ERA, 7.4 K/9, and 2.00 K/BB rate over 41 1/3 innings for New York this season.
  • Boone also gave Hoch and other media members an update on Didi Gregorius, saying that the shortstop could return during the Yankees’ upcoming road trip to Toronto and Cleveland from June 4th-9th.  Gregorius has yet to play a full nine innings at shortstop in consecutive games, which Boone noted is an important step in his Tommy John rehab process.

Yankees Activate James Paxton

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As anticipated, the Yankees have activated lefty James Paxton to start today’s game. The team had previously optioned righty Joe Harvey to open a roster spot.

Paxton had been sidelined since early May with a left knee injury. He’s still not quite at full health, as Zach Braziller of the New York Post was among those to report, but it seems the assessment is that he won’t be putting himself at risk of greater injury by returning to the mound. Paxton will be activated without making a rehab appearance.

The 30-year-old hurler turned in seven strong outings to open his Yankees career, working to a 3.11 ERA with 52 strikeouts and 13 walks in 37 2/3 frames. He was in dominating form, sitting comfortably in the mid-nineties with his fastball and generating swings and misses with 14.1% of his pitches.

Paxton’s return is an unquestionable boon to the Bronx Bombers, not that they have seemed in particular need of help. The club has more than weathered an injury barrage, moving into first-place position in the AL East.

Staying ahead of the Rays and Red Sox won’t come easy. Getting Paxton back into the rotation will help, though the rotation still figures to be an area to target for improvement over the summer. J.A. Happ has struggled to open the year, while Jonathan Loaisiga, CC Sabathia, and Luis Severino are all presently on the injured list.

Yankees Notes: Keuchel, Paxton, Betances, Judge

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The Yankees sent a top evaluator to watch free-agent left-hander Dallas Keuchel throw a sim game in Newport Beach, Calif., on Sunday, Erik Boland of Newsday reports. That’s not necessarily an indication Keuchel is destined to land in the Bronx once his months-long trek to the open market ends, though. Watching Keuchel may have simply been a case of the team doing its due diligence, as Boland notes. Regardless, the 31-year-old Keuchel has been throwing sim games roughly every five days in hopes of staying in shape for whichever club signs him. As a result, Keuchel’s “not too far away from where he was at the end of last season,” Bryan Hoch of MLB.com tweets.

  • New York’s rotation is about to benefit from a different established southpaw, James Paxton, who manager Aaron Boone said could come off the injured list Wednesday (via Boland). Paxton has been on the shelf since May 5 with a left knee injury, thus halting a terrific first season in New York. The former Mariner opened 2019 in spectacular fashion before going on the IL, tossing 37 2/3 innings of 3.11 ERA/2.50 FIP ball with 12.42 K/9 against 3.11 BB/9.
  • In further positive news for the Yankees’ pitching staff, reliever Dellin Betances will throw off a mound Monday for the first time in his rehab process, per Boone (via Hoch). Betances hasn’t pitched at all this season because of a bone spur in his right shoulder. With late-game hurlers Adam Ottavino, Zach Britton and Tommy Kahnle bridging the gap to closer Aroldis Chapman, the Yankees’ bullpen has gotten along fine without Betances. But Betances, a four-time All-Star, has long been the club’s go-to setup man and one of the game’s premier relievers. He’ll be a key summer reinforcement for the Yankees if his recovery stays on course.
  • Speaking of reinforcements, right fielder Aaron Judge – out since April 21 – is making progress as he works back from a left oblique strain, Hoch relays. “I’m feeling really good,” Judge told Meredith Marakovits of the YES Network on Sunday. “We’re progressing the way we want to, and it’s a good sign getting a chance to get on the field again and throw a little bit. It feels good to be back — sort of.” The slugger still hasn’t received clearance to swing a bat, but he’s hopeful that will change early this week. Even though Judge is the Yankees’ leading position player, they’ve managed to rip off 24 wins in 32 games without him or fellow injured superstar corner outfielder Giancarlo Stanton in the lineup. Brett Gardner, Clint Frazier, Cameron Maybin and Mike Tauchman (who’s currently in the minors) have held down the fort since Judge and Stanton have been laid up.
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