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Report: Yankees Make New Offer For Dylan Cease

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The Yankees are still in the process of gathering information on Gerrit Cole’s elbow after he reported difficulty recovering between starts and underwent an MRI on Monday. In the meantime, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that they’ve made a new offer to the White Sox regarding right-hander Dylan Cease. Prior reporting on the talks between the two teams have indicated that the Yankees have refused to include outfield prospect Spencer Jones in any package for Cease, and Nightengale notes that Jones once again is not included in the new offer.

Trade talk surrounding Cease has died down in the latter stages of the offseason. White Sox GM Chris Getz has steadfastly held his asking price in negotiations throughout the offseason — an ask that other teams have deemed exorbitant.

If the Yankees indeed go outside the organization to bolster their staff, there’s some sense to preferring a trade to, say, signing a free agent like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery. Snell and Montgomery would come with huge annual salaries that are magnified by the 110% luxury tax the Yankees would pay for any additions at this point, given the current state of their payroll. Snell, in particular, would cost the Yankees their second-highest draft pick and $1MM of space from next year’s international amateur free agency pool, as he rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres. Cease has also been in camp with the White Sox, pitching in spring training games and building up for the season. Snell and Montgomery are surely working out on their own in preparation for the season, but that’s not necessarily the same as working in game settings. Cease wouldn’t come with any questions about whether he’d be ready for Opening Day, whereas a free-agent pickup at this point in the offseason calendar very much could.

Cease, the 2022 American League Cy Young runner-up, is earning $8MM this season and is controllable through the 2025 season via arbitration. He’s coming off a down year, having posted a pedestrian 4.58 earned run average in 177 frames with somewhat diminished averaged fastball velocity (96.9 mph in ’22, 95.8 mph in ’23). But Cease maintained strong strikeout numbers, missed bats at a plus level and was to some extent hampered by a .330 average on balls in play that was 46 points higher than his career mark entering the season. Other teams clearly view him as a playoff-caliber starter — evidenced by the widespread demand for him this winter — and the White Sox don’t seem likely to lower their asking price substantially, knowing they can also extract a substantial trade return for Cease this summer as long as he remains healthy.

Holding Cease with an eye toward the deadline presents the Sox with an obvious risk, as pitcher attrition in the sport is an inevitability. That’s underscored by the very reason the Yankees have apparently reengaged the White Sox on Cease. Cole and Cease have been the game’s two most durable starters for the past four years. Since 2020 (Cease’s first full season in MLB), Cease leads all big league pitchers with 109 starts. Cole’s 108 rank second, tying him with Aaron Nola and Jose Berrios. Even the most durable pitchers eventually break down, and if Cease incurs any kind of notable injury in the season’s first half, holding him will go down as a major setback in the White Sox’ rebuilding efforts.

Risk notwithstanding, the Sox have held firm in their asking price and seem prepared to wait until July if that price is not met. With regard to the Yankees, that includes Jones, a towering 6’6″ outfielder who’s drawn comparisons to Aaron Judge due to his physical size and his immense raw power. It’s unfair to expect any hitter to develop to Judge’s level, but the pure physical traits are similar. Baseball America credits Jones with plus power (60 on the 20-80 scale), while FanGraphs gives him a plus-plus rating (70-grade) in that department. Jones, who hit .267/.336/.444 between High-A and Double-A in his age-22 season last year, currently ranks 15th among all prospects at FanGraphs, 33rd at Baseball Prospectus, 46th at BA, 56th at ESPN and 84th at MLB.com.

Even if the Yankees remain unwilling to include Jones in an offer for Cease, the farm system is stacked with top-100 talents and with quality names behind that high-end contingent. Each of outfielder Jasson Dominguez, outfielder Everson Pereira, catcher Austin Wells, righty Chase Hampton, righty Will Warren and shortstop Roderick Arias has drawn top-100 fanfare on multiple lists. The overall depth of the system is considered strong as well, ranking sixth at ESPN, seventh at The Athletic, ninth at Baseball America and 11th at MLB.com.

The White Sox, who fired longtime baseball operations leaders Rick Hahn and Kenny Williams last summer, have been working to reshape the organization since shaking up the top end of the front office. Getz flatly stated that he “didn’t like our team” at the beginning of the offseason. Since taking the GM reins, he’d traded relievers Aaron Bummer and Gregory Santos, moved on from shortstop Tim Anderson and made a series of acquisitions to improve the club’s pitching depth and defense — two longstanding issues. Trading Cease would be his most significant transaction to date.

Gerrit Cole Undergoing MRI On Right Elbow

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Yankees ace and reigning American League Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole is headed for an MRI on his right elbow, manager Aaron Boone told reporters Monday morning (X link via Newsday’s David Lennon). Cole hasn’t been recovering as well between throwing sessions and will get his elbow checked out to determine if there’s an injury at play. The imaging will take place today.

Cole will receive multiple opinions on the status of his elbow, and the Yankees don’t expect to announce a prognosis today or even tomorrow, tweets Bryan Hoch of MLB.com.

Boone didn’t provide additional details. The organization’s level of concern regarding a potential serious injury isn’t clear, though imaging performed on any pitcher’s elbow is an ominous sign. That’s particularly true in a Yankees rotation that can ill afford to lose its ace. Granted, no team is built to withstand the loss of a reigning Cy Young winner, but the rotation behind Cole is filled with a series of question marks.

The first season of Carlos Rodon’s six-year, $162MM contract with the Yankees played out in disastrous fashion. After a dominant two-year run between the White Sox and Giants from 2021-22, Rodon was limited by injuries in 2023, logging just 14 starts (64 1/3 innings) and yielding a grisly 6.85 ERA with strikeout and walk rates that both trended heavily in the wrong direction (22.4% and 9.8%, respectively — down from 33.9% and 7.1% in the two seasons prior).

A strained left rotator cuff limited southpaw Nestor Cortes Jr. to a near-identical slate of 63 1/3 frames in 2023. He’s broken out with a pair of sub-3.00 ERA campaigns over the two preceding seasons. While Cortes maintained strong strikeout and walk rates, he became even more fly-ball heavy, inducing grounders at a minuscule 26% clip. He saw his HR/9 mark spike from 0.91 the year prior to 1.56 in 2023. Cortes didn’t see a disproportionate number of his fly-balls leave the yard (just 11%), but the sheer volume of balls in the air worked against him both at home (1.45 HR/9) and on the road (1.73 HR/9).

The Yankees picked up Marcus Stroman on a two-year, $37MM contract this offseason to help solidify the rotation, but he’s coming off an injury-marred season of his own. Stroman was in the NL Cy Young conversation with a strong first few months of the ’23 season before being rocked in July and placed on the injured list due to a hip injury. While rehabbing, he was diagnosed with fractures in his rib cartilage that further slowed his return to the mound. He made it back for four appearances late in the season but didn’t pitch particularly well. After carrying a 2.88 ERA through his first 20 starts, Stroman pitched just 18 more innings on the season and was lit up for 26 runs (22 earned) in that time.

Right-hander Clarke Schmidt finished second on the team with 32 starts and 159 innings pitched, though he turned in back-of-the-rotation results due in large part to his own susceptibility to home runs. Schmidt looks like he can at least be an innings eater this season, but he’s yet to have the same type of MLB success that any of his rotationmates has enjoyed in the past. There’s surely hope within the organization that the former top prospect can take a step forward, but his ability to do so (or lack thereof) will be even more pivotal if it’s determined that Cole has any type of notable injury.

The depth options behind that top quintet are shakier still. Veteran Luke Weaver inked a one-year, $2MM deal late in the offseason and seems ticketed for a swingman role, but he could start games if Cole requires any kind of absence. Weaver pitched well in three starts for the Yanks late last season but had a collective 6.40 ERA between Cincinnati, Seattle and New York — his third time in the past four seasons recording an ERA north of 6.00.

Down on the farm, the Yankees have righties Luis Gil, Clayton Beeter and Yoendrys Gomez on the 40-man roster. Gil has the most big league experience, and impressive as he was through six starts in 2021, he’s pitched just 29 2/3 total innings over the past two years owing to Tommy John surgery. Gomez pitched two MLB innings last year. Beeter has not reached the majors. Prospect Will Warren had a nice year between Double-A and Triple-A in 2023 but isn’t yet on the 40-man roster. He’s in camp as a non-roster invitee, however. Fellow prospect Chase Hampton and southpaw Tanner Tully were also NRIs this spring, but both have already been reassigned to minor league camp.

The mere possibility of an injury to Cole will rekindle speculation regarding free agents Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, both of whom have been tied to the Yankees at various points in the offseason. The Yankees reportedly made a five-year offer to Snell before pivoting to sign Stroman. The two sides have remained in touch with Snell, in particular, but a match has looked like a long shot given the massive tax implications that come with signing either lefty. The Yankees are a third-time luxury offender and are already in the highest tier of luxury-tax penalization. That means in addition to any actual salary for the upcoming season, they’ll pay a 110% tax on any additional contract’s average annual value. A $25MM AAV would come with a $27.5MM tax hit. A $30MM would carry a $33MM hit — and so on.

Previously, with a fully healthy rotation, such a lavish expenditure seemed unlikely. If the Yankees are facing a prolonged absence for Cole, however, that type of massive financial commitment could become far more plausible. Snell has reportedly been amenable to short-term, opt-out laden contracts with high annual salaries, while it seems Montgomery has been more focused on a longer-term contract. At this point of spring, however, it’s also worth wondering just how ready either free agent would be for Opening Day. A return to the trade market shouldn’t be discounted as a possibility, though the asking price on arms like Dylan Cease, Jesus Luzardo and others has been staggeringly high throughout the offseason (hance the lack of trade for either hurler).

Giants Release J.D. Davis

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The Giants have requested unconditional release waivers on corner infielder J.D. Davis after he went unclaimed on outright waivers, the team announced to various reporters (including Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle). Once he clears, he’ll be a free agent.

Davis won an arbitration hearing over the Giants earlier in the offseason, which awarded him a $6.9MM salary. However, under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement, that sum isn’t fully guaranteed until Opening Day. By cutting him now, the Giants could potentially only owe him 30 days of termination pay — about $1.11MM. The CBA, however, explicitly states that this applies to players who have “failed to exhibit sufficient skill or competitive ability.” That hardly seems to apply to Davis, who hit .248/.325/.413 with 18 home runs during the 2023 regular season and is 6-for-15 with a pair of homers this spring (.400/.471/.800).

Under the previous collective bargaining agreement, no arbitration deals were fully guaranteed unless specifically bargained as such. The new set of rules fully guarantees the deals of players who agree to terms absent a hearing — but allows teams to move on from players who go to a hearing without being responsible for the full freight of the contract. A player released more 16 or more days before the season opener is entitled to 30 days of his prorated salary, whereas a player released with fewer than 16 days before the opener is entitled to 45 days of his prorated salary. Again, however, that’s contingent on “failure to exhibit sufficient skill or competitive ability.” Davis’ representatives at ALIGND Sports and the MLBPA ostensibly have cause to file a grievance on his behalf, claiming that his termination is not reflective of his skill (or lack thereof).

For much of the offseason, it looked as though Davis would be the Giants’ primary option at the hot corner. Matt Chapman lingered on the open market long enough that the Giants were able to scoop him up on a three-year deal at much more favorable terms than expected heading into the offseason. Chapman can opt out of that $54MM deal in either of the next two offseasons, but his price tag dropped to the point where the Giants felt they couldn’t pass on the deal — even it meant moving on from a productive player in the 31-year-old Davis.

The Giants unsuccessfully attempted to trade Davis after signing Chapman, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi said on a call with reporters today (X link via Slusser). The team placed Davis on outright waivers over the weekend, but by this point on the calendar, most clubs have used up the bulk of their offseason budgets. A $6.9MM salary isn’t a notable percentage of most teams’ payrolls, but it was hefty enough at this time of the offseason that no team felt comfortable claiming it. The fact that Davis could be signed for a lesser salary upon clearing waivers and becoming a free agent surely played into the calculus for interested clubs as well.

While the 2023 season was far from Davis’ best, it was still a productive one all around. He’ll immediately become one of the most intriguing bats on the market and could land with any team looking to add some right-handed thump to its lineup. Last year’s .248/.325/.413 slash was four percent better than average, by measure of wRC+, but from 2019-22 Davis turned in a much healthier .276/.363/.457 line — about 27% better than average, per wRC+. Davis has roughly even platoon splits throughout his career.

From a defensive standpoint, an opposite trajectory has played out — at least in the eyes of Statcast. Davis has been panned as a poor defender for years at the hot corner, but Statcast graded him five outs above average in 2023. Defensive Runs Saved remained quite bearish on him (-11). Most clubs likely view Davis as a below-average defender and thus as a limited player, but there’s little doubting he’s a major league bat who can improve nearly any club’s everyday lineup — or at least its bench mix.

For the Giants, if they indeed succeed in shaving nearly $5.8MM off the books in 2024, they’ll be about $10MM shy of the luxury tax threshold, per RosterResouce. Whether that opens the door for any further, late additions in free agency or via the trade market remains to be seen. Zaidi has suggested that his team is likely done with significant additions, but he made similar comments after signing Jorge Soler and then went on to sign Chapman as well.

Mariners’ Jackson Kowar To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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The Mariners announced that right-hander Jackson Kowar has been placed on the 60-day injured list due to a tear in his right UCL.  General manager Justin Hollander told reporters (including Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times) that Kowar will undergo Tommy John surgery next week, so the righty will now be out of action until around the midpoint of the 2025 season.  The 60-day IL placement for Kowar creates a 40-man roster spot for Ryne Stanek, whose signing is now official.

It’s a brutal setback for Kowar, who went into 2024 looking for a fresh start.  The Royals selected Kowar 33rd overall in the 2018 draft, and viewed the righty as one of several young arms that would help spur the organization’s next contention window.  Unfortunately, Kowar (and basically all of Kansas City’s pitchers to date) has yet to show much in the big leagues, with only a 9.12 ERA to show for 74 innings over the last three seasons.

Kowar made eight starts in his 2021 debut season but has since worked only as a reliever in the majors.  The move to the bullpen upped his fastball velocity but not much else, as batters have continued to tee off on Kowar’s offerings.  Shaky control has also been detrimental to Kowar’s cause, with a 13.7% walk rate and a modest 20.1% strikeout rate.

The Royals opted to move on from Kowar in November when he was traded to the Braves for Kyle Wright, and Kowar’s stay in Atlanta lasted just a couple of weeks, as he was flipped to the Mariners as part of the five-player trade that brought Jarred Kelenic to Atlanta.  From Seattle’s perspective, the trade moved a good deal of salary off the books at the cost of Kelenic, and the M’s got to pick up a couple of younger arms in Kowar and Cole Phillips, a second-round pick for the 2022 draft.  Unfortunately, Phillips was already recovering from a TJ surgery and recently had to undergo a second procedure, while Kowar has now also been sidelined with the same surgery.

News surfaced earlier this week about a possible arm injury for Kowar, adding to a list of reliever injuries Seattle has already had to address this spring.  Gregory Santos has been dealing with soreness is his teres major area but is back throwing bullpen sessions, while Hollander also said that Matt Brash is upping his games of catch to throws of 90 feet.  Brash was recently given the green light to start throwing again after a bout of elbow inflammation, as it appeared as though he dodged what initially appeared to be a much more serious injury.  Given all these health concerns, it isn’t surprising the Mariners felt the need to spend $4MM on Stanek to reinforce the relief corps.

Mariners Sign Ryne Stanek

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TODAY: The Mariners officially announced the signing after Stanek passed his physical.

MARCH 8: The Mariners and right-hander Ryne Stanek have agreed to deal, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. It will be a $4MM guarantee for Stanek, per Feinsand, with $2MM in bonuses also available. Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports that the MVP Sports Group client will report to Peoria tomorrow to take his physical and sign the contract. Divish also relays that it will be a one-year deal. The Mariners will need to make a corresponding 40-man roster move whenever the Stanek deal becomes official.

Stanek, 32, will jump across the American League West after spending the past three years with the Astros. He had solid results in that time, serving as a setup man for closer Ryan Pressly. Stanek made 186 appearances for Houston in that three-year span, racking up 41 holds and three saves. He allowed 2.90 earned runs per nine innings and struck out 27% of batters faced. The 12.2% walk rate in that time was certainly high but he was effective in spite of it.

Last year, he got that walk rate down to 9.9%, a personal best for his career. But his strikeout rate also dipped to 23.9%, barely above the 23.6% league average for relievers in 2023. His 4.09 ERA was more solid than great but the overall track record of his time in Houston is nonetheless strong. He also tossed 18 postseason innings for the club over those past three years with an ERA of 3.00.

Beyond the results, Stanek is also appealing for his stuff. His fastball averaged 98.2 miles per hour last year and he also has a splitter and a slider, throwing each of the latter two pitches around 18% of the time last year. Stanek received plenty of attention this offseason, as the Astros reportedly had some interest in a reunion while clubs like the Mets, Cubs and Red Sox were connected to him at various points.

Ultimately, he will land with the Mariners, which is a logical spot. Seattle is set to go into the season with Andrés Muñoz as their closer but the setup group has been dealing with a batch of injury concerns here in Spring Training.

Matt Brash was shut down a couple of weeks ago with an elbow issue and once seemed like he was facing a season-long absence, though he was cleared to resume throwing last week. Similarly, Gregory Santos was shut down due to some discomfort near his teres major muscle but has since started ramping things back up. Just yesterday, it was reported that Jackson Kowar will be meeting with a doctor to have his arm evaluated. None of those three situations seem disastrous in a vacuum but it appears there’s enough general uncertainty that the Mariners decided to reach out and add another arm into the mix and Stanek was the best one still out there.

RosterResource estimates the Seattle payroll is currently $136MM. That’s just barely under last year’s Opening Day figure of $137MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Previous reporting has suggested that uncertainty around the club’s TV revenue situation would limit them to a modest bump over last year’s spending. Adding Stanek’s salary bumps their payroll to $140MM, slightly beyond where they were a year ago.

The club’s Opening Day bullpen mix will largely depend on health at this point. Muñoz will certainly be in one spot and Stanek in another, while Brash and Santos will take two more if they are healthy. Kowar seemed to be trending to taking a spot before his health issues cropped up. Options for filling out the rest of the group include Gabe Speier, Trent Thornton, Tayler Saucedo, Austin Voth, Carlos Vargas, Mauricio Llovera and others.

For clubs still looking for bullpen upgrades at this late stage of the offseason, Stanek coming off the board leaves Brad Hand, Aaron Loup, Brad Boxberger and Mark Melancon as some of the most accomplished hurlers that remain unsigned.

Blue Jays Sign Joey Votto To Minor League Deal

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March 9: The Blue Jays have now officially announced Votto’s signing.

March 8: Joey Votto is in agreement with the Blue Jays on a minor league deal with an invite to major league camp, pending a physical. The MVP Sports Group client would reportedly lock in a $2MM base salary if he makes the MLB roster with another $2MM available via incentives.

It’s a pairing that fans in Toronto have been dreaming about for a long time, as Votto grew up in the city of Etobicoke, which was amalgamated into the city of Toronto in 1998. For most of the past two decades, Votto has been mashing for the Reds and becoming a fan favorite with his unique personality while Blue Jays fans looked south of the border with envy, hoping that the local legend would someday return home.

But back in 2012, Votto signed a 10-year extension with the Reds that ran through 2023. That pact only just expired a few months ago with Cincy turning down a 2024 club option and the Reds didn’t really have much ability to keep him around. They have recently graduated a big pile of position player prospects and came into the winter with Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Jonathan India, Tyler Stephenson and Spencer Steer as first base options, then they added to that group by signing Jeimer Candelario.

That pushed Votto to pursue opportunities outside Cincinnati for the first time in his career. The Blue Jays were connected to Votto fairly early on, both due to his hometown ties and the roster fit. The Jays came into the winter with very few left-handed bats on the roster and also an open designated hitter spot thanks to the free agent departure of Brandon Belt. Votto also drew some reported interest from the Angels but now the long-awaited Votto-Blue Jays pairing has finally come to fruition.

However, the Votto that is now heading to Jays’ camp isn’t quite the same one that won an MVP award and earned six All-Star nods in the previous decade. He’s been battling a significant shoulder injury of late, undergoing surgery in 2022. Over the past two years, he’s played just 156 games and hit .204/317/.394 in that time for a wRC+ of 95. His 11.5% walk rate in that time was still a few ticks above average but below Votto’s career rate of 15.6%. He was also struck out in 25.7% of his plate appearances over those two seasons, well above his career clip of 18.8%.

With Votto now beyond his 40th birthday and coming off a couple of injury-marred seasons, it’s fair to wonder what he has left in the tank at this point, but it’s a fun and logical pairing for the two sides nonetheless. Votto gets a chance to play for his hometown team while the Jays could find lightning in a bottle if Votto is able to put the shoulder issues behind him and get back to his old self. He has 356 home runs in his career and has slashed .294/.409/.511 overall for a wRC+ of 145.

Votto won’t need to get back all the way to MVP form to be a useful contributor for the Blue Jays, but the roster fit may be a bit tight. The Jays have Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as their everyday first baseman and they signed Justin Turner to be in the designated hitter slot most days. Turner can still play a bit of third base but he’s now 39 years old and hasn’t been an everyday fielder since 2021.

It’s possible Votto could carve out a part-time role wherein he can serve as the DH whenever Turner is in the field or perhaps give Guerrero the occasional breather by playing first base, as Belt did last year. He will have some competition from Daniel Vogelbach, who is also lefty that the Jays signed to a minor league deal. Vogelbach is almost strictly a DH, as he didn’t play the field at all in 2023 and logged just five innings at first base in 2022. But he has been having a decent spring so far, having hit two home runs and drawn three walks in 15 plate appearances, leading to a wonky slash line of .250/.400/.833.

Vogelbach is 31 years old and thus far younger than Votto but Votto’s longer track record and ability to play a bit of first base could give him an edge. His defensive metrics have been subpar in the past two years but has racked up 54 Defensive Runs Saved in his career overall. Similar to his offense, perhaps some better health as he gets further from his shoulder surgery could help him. The club likely can’t fit both on the roster as they’ll need at least one bench spot for a catcher and then two more for multi-positional guys like Davis Schneider, Santiago Espinal or Ernie Clement. But having one part-time lefty in mix makes sense as the only lefties currently slated for regular action in the Toronto lineup are glove-first outfielders Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier as well as utility player Cavan Biggio.

Votto is an XX(B) free agent, which is any player with at least six years of service time that finished the previous season on a major league roster or injured list. Under the current collective bargaining agreement between MLB and the MLBPA, such players have uniform opt-out dates in any minor league deal signed more than 10 days prior to Opening Day. Those dates are five days before Opening Day, May 1 and June 1.

This year’s Opening Day is March 28, meaning Votto will have a chance to return to free agency if the Jays don’t add him to the roster by March 23, which is in just over two weeks. Vogelbach doesn’t have six years of service time and won’t have guaranteed opt-outs, though it’s unknown if he had any added into the language of his contract.

Votto tells C. Trent Rosecrans and Kaitlyn McGrath of the Athletic that while he’ll report to Jays camp on Saturday, he expects to open the season at Triple-A Buffalo. That suggests he’s not planning to exercise the first of the opt-out dates provided by the CBA.

Vogelbach also has a base salary of $2MM if he makes the club so the financial element of the decision will be a wash. The Jays are set to be a second-time payor of the competitive balance tax this year, which means they will face a 30% tax on that $2MM whether it comes from Votto or Vogelbach, but that will add just $600K to their tax bill.

The next few weeks will give Votto a chance to display his health and current abilities to the club before decisions need to be made. For the time being, it’s an exciting pairing for Blue Jay fans that they have long waited for.

ESPN’s Buster Olney first reported the Jays and Votto had agreed to a minor league deal with a big league Spring Training invite. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reported the financial terms.

Noelvi Marte Receives 80-Game Suspension After Positive PED Test

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The MLB commissioner’s office announced today that Reds infielder Noelvi Marte has received an 80-game suspension without pay after testing positive for Boldenone, a banned performance enhancing substance. “The Reds fully support Major League Baseball’s drug policy and its penalties,” the club said in a statement. “We will have no further comment.” Marte will be on the restricted list until the first 80 games of the regular season are completed.

Marte, 22, was one of several exciting young position players to debut with the Reds last year. An international signing of the Mariners out of the Dominican Republic, he was one of four players that came to the Reds in the 2022 trade that sent Luis Castillo to Seattle. He slashed .279/.358/.454 in the minors last year, earning himself a call-up in mid-August. He then hit .316/.366/.456 in his first 123 major league plate appearances while splitting his time between shortstop and third base.

Marte was coming into the 2024 campaign as a consensus top 50 prospect in the sport and set to be a key part of the left side of the Cincinnati infield. Instead, he will sit out the first half of the season while serving his suspension.

As mentioned, the Reds have been graduating a number of prospects to the majors lately and should have plenty of options to cover for Marte’s absence. Matt McLain can play either middle infield spot while Elly De La Cruz could play either spot on the left side. Jeimer Candelario and Christian Encarnacion-Strand can play the corner infield spots.

Spencer Steer can bounce all over the diamond but may end up in left field with the infield logjam, even without Marte. Jonathan India has been a second baseman for the most part but has been getting work at first and in the outfield due to the club’s bevy of infielders. Catcher Tyler Stephenson has some experience at first base. Even if Steer and India end up spending more time on the infield, the outfield still has TJ Friedl, Will Benson, Jake Fraley and Stuart Fairchild.

How the club manages their roster without Marte remains to be seen. For him personally, this figures to push back his free agency and perhaps his qualification for arbitration as players do not accrue service time while on the restricted list. He currently has 44 days of MLB service time but this suspension will prevent him from getting over the one-year mark in 2024.

Dodgers Moving Mookie Betts To Shortstop

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The Dodgers are flipping their middle infield alignment. Mookie Betts is getting the start at shortstop while Gavin Lux will be at second base for this evening’s Cactus League matchup against the Reds. Manager Dave Roberts called the switch “permanent, for now” when chatting with reporters (link via Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic).

While that leaves open the possibility of returning to their previous arrangement at some point, Betts is going to open the season at the infield’s toughest position. The Dodgers entered camp planning to have the former MVP at second base with Lux at shortstop. The latter’s inconsistent throwing accuracy this spring changed the equation, as Roberts acknowledged last night.

There’s no question about Betts’ premium athleticism and overall defensive acumen. Still, this is a notable bet to place on a player with so little infield experience at the MLB level. Betts didn’t play the infield regularly as a major leaguer until last season. The Dodgers gave him 485 innings at second base and 98 frames at shortstop. Betts drew a strong +6 grade from Defensive Runs Saved at the keystone. Statcast, on the other hand, estimated he was one run below par. His sample as a shortstop is too small to draw significant conclusions, although he was charged with three errors there against only two errors at second base.

That Betts immediately played a solid second base after spending most of his 10-year MLB career in right field offers some optimism about his chances of handling the left side of the infield. Yet it’s clearly not what the Dodgers intended coming into camp. Betts had at least had ample second base experience during his time as a prospect in the Red Sox’s system, logging almost 2000 innings there before being pushed to the outfield thanks to the presence of Dustin Pedroia. His minor league shortstop experience consisted of 13 starts between rookie and short-season ball in 2011-12.

The left side infield defense becomes an important storyline for the Dodgers. Betts will be joined on most days by third baseman Max Muncy, a below-average defender who’s in the lineup for his bat. The Dodgers have a few shortstop-capable options off the bench. Miguel Rojas is a plus defender. Enrique Hernández and Chris Taylor can log shortstop action as part of their utility responsibilities. Rojas hasn’t produced much offensively over the past two seasons, though, while neither Hernández nor Taylor is a good fit for everyday shortstop work.

Lux will move back to second base. He has spent the majority of his MLB career there after moving off shortstop as a prospect. That was partially because the Dodgers had Corey Seager and Trea Turner, respectively, through the 2022 season. It was also a reflection of anxiety-related throwing issues that Lux battled when he was a prospect. Public defensive metrics have graded him as an above-average second baseman. His throwing has been less of an issue on the right side of the diamond. He has plus range for the position.

Keeping Lux in the starting lineup at all is a calculated move on the Dodgers’ part to maximize their offense. They could have bumped him to the bench or optioned him to Triple-A once they determined he wasn’t a viable shortstop. That would have allowed them to keep Betts at second and install Rojas back into the lineup. Doing so would have subtracted a promising bat. The lefty-swinging Lux had a solid .276/.346/.399 line over 471 plate appearances in 2022, making him a much better offensive contributor than Rojas is. He missed all of last season after tearing the ACL in his right knee during Spring Training.

Roberts indicated that Betts could occasionally slide back to second base on days when Lux is out of the lineup. That’d most frequently come against left-handed pitching and allow a right-handed hitter like Rojas, Hernández or Taylor to step in at shortstop. They could also time those substitutions to improve the infield defense when they’re starting a ground-ball pitcher like Bobby Miller. L.A. has a few key high-grounder relievers (e.g. Brusdar Graterol, Blake Treinen, Ryan Brasier) who’d also benefit from a better defensive alignment behind them late in games.

Red Sox Sign Brayan Bello To Extension

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The Red Sox announced they have signed right-hander Brayan Bello to a six-year extension with a club option for 2030. It will give the team an extra two years of control over the 24-year-old and reportedly has a $55MM guarantee. Bello had previously been controllable through the 2028 season, but the Sox have locked in one would-be free agent year and also secured a club option for a second season that’s said to be valued at $21MM. Bello is represented by ISE Baseball.

Chris Cotillo of MassLive was among those to relay the full breakdown. Bello will get a $1MM signing bonus and salary of $1MM here in 2024, followed by successive salaries of $2.5MM, $6MM, $8.5MM, $16MM and $19MM. There’s also a $1MM buyout on the $21MM club option. There are also bonuses and escalators based on Cy Young voting and All-Star selections.

Bello, 25 in May, was signed out of the Dominican Republic for a modest bonus of $28K. But he continued to find success as he moved up the minor league ladder, climbing prospect lists in the process. Baseball America had him in the 15-20 range of their list of the top 30 Red Sox prospects in 2020 and 2021, then vaulted him up to #5 going into 2022. That was based on a 2021 season wherein Bello tossed 95 1/3 innings on the farm with a 3.87 earned run average, 32.8% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate while also keeping about half of balls in play on the ground.

He was added to the club’s 40-man roster late in 2021 to keep him out of that year’s Rule 5 draft. In 2022, he posted a 2.76 ERA at the Triple-A level and also got to make a brief major league debut, tossing 57 1/3 innings. His 4.71 ERA in that time wasn’t especially strong but his 55.7% ground ball rate and .404 BABIP suggested at least some of that was misfortune.

Last year got out to a shaky start, as he began the year on the injured list due to some elbow inflammation. He returned in mid-April and had a couple of shaky starts before the Sox decided to option him to the minors. An injury to Garrett Whitlock led to a quick return for Bello and it was at that point that he put together a strong stretch of work that established him as a viable big league hurler.

From his April 28 recall through the end of August, he made 21 starts for the Sox with a 3.20 ERA. His 19% strikeout rate was below average but his 6.4% walk rate and 55% ground ball rate were very strong. He seemed to run out of gas at that point, as he allowed 22 earned run in 26 September innings. Between the poor finish and the rough start, Bello ended up with a 4.24 ERA on the year overall, but the middle section of the season clearly opened some eyes.

It’s obviously a bit favorable to Bello to exclude his worst results, but he was a bit banged up at the beginning of the year and the thud at the end could be chalked up to last year being his largest innings tally thus far. The Sox clearly believe he’s capable of taking a step forward if they are willing to invest in him. He’s already shown he can keep the ball on the ground and the strikeouts might come around eventually, as his 11% swinging strike rate in his career so far is right around league average and he’s punched out 28.9% of hitters faced in the minors.

The Sox have very little starting pitching certainty going forward. Lucas Giolito was signed to a two-year deal this offseason but he now seems to be facing a significant absence due to a partially-torn UCL and a flexor tendon strain. Nick Pivetta is slated for free agency after 2024. That leaves their long-term rotation mix consisting of Bello, Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock. Those are talented arms, but each of Crawford, Whitlock and Houck are still somewhat unestablished, with none of them having tossed 130 innings in a major league season yet. On BA’s current list of the top 30 prospects in the system, only two of the top 10 are pitchers, with Wikelman Gonzalez at #7 and Luis Perales at #9. The latter has yet to reach Double-A and the former has less than 50 innings pitched at that level.

Given those options, it’s understandable why the Sox wanted to build around Bello. And from the player’s perspective, his small bonus means he has yet to bank meaningful earnings, unlike a top draft pick or hyped-up international player who may already have millions stashed away. Bello’s service time clock is currently at one year and 82 days, meaning he wouldn’t have even reached arbitration until after the 2025 season.

A deal has seemed like a strong possibility for some time now. Back in January of last year, the young righty expressed his openness to such an arrangement and reporting from July suggested the club would likely broach the subject at some point. A few weeks ago, further reporting indicated that the two sides were discussing a new deal and it seems they are now making some headway.

As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Bello is just the fifth pitcher with between one and two years of MLB service time to sign an extension in the past eight years. The two most recent examples — Cincinnati’s Hunter Greene and Atlanta’s Spencer Strider — signed six-year deals worth $53MM and $75MM, respectively. Strider’s contract is a record for this service class and was never likely to be matched by Bello. But the Boston right-hander will settle in just north of Greene’s deal, which was surely a point of focus for Bello and his camp.

Extensions usually feature climbing salaries as the years progress, roughly mirroring the arbitration process. The Sox currently have little on the books that would coincide with the most expensive years of this potential extension. Rafael Devers is under contract through 2033, but no one else is guaranteed a contract beyond 2027. Trevor Story and Masataka Yoshida are the only players guaranteed a salary beyond 2026. Adding Bello to that mix will put another salary of note on the payroll and modestly add to the team’s luxury ledger, but the extension is nonetheless an affordable means of locking in some stability while giving the team some upside in the event that Bello takes his game to a new level.

Alex Speier of the Boston Globe first reported that the two sides were in “advanced” talks on a deal. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel broke the news that the two parties had agreed on a six-year, $55MM deal.

Lucas Giolito Diagnosed With Partial UCL Tear, Flexor Strain

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March 6: Giolito will receive a second opinion from Dr. Jeff Dugas, Cora said this morning (X link via McCaffrey). Cora conceded that surgery is indeed an option, but no final decisions will be made until the right-hander receives that second opinion.

March 5: Red Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito experienced discomfort in his right elbow after his most recent throwing session, manager Alex Cora announced Tuesday morning (X link via Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic). He’ll undergo additional testing, but ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that the initial diagnosis is a partial tear of the right ulnar collateral ligament and a flexor strain. A determination on treatment won’t be made until Giolito receives additional opinions, but season-ending surgery is obviously now on the table.

It’s a brutal blow for the Red Sox, who signed Giolito to a two-year, $38.5MM contract that allows the right-hander to opt out following the 2024 campaign. Assuming additional opinions confirm the team’s initial diagnosis, Giolito’s decision on next year’s $19MM player option will be rendered a foregone conclusion before the season even begins. If he indeed picks up that player option, the team would be granted a $14MM club option for the 2026 season. Giolito could then convert that into a mutual option by pitching 140 innings in 2025.

Giolito, 29, signed his current deal in hopes of putting a rough couple years behind him and reentering the market in a stronger position. From 2022-23, the right-hander logged 346 innings but pitched to an ineffective 4.89 ERA between the White Sox, Angels and Guardians. A spike in Giolito’s home run rate contributed heavily to the downturn in performance, but he maintained a better-than-average 25.5% strikeout rate against a slightly higher-than-average 9% walk rate in that span.

The primary culprit in Giolito’s struggles was a spike in home run rate; metrics like xFIP (4.08) and SIERA (4.01) felt he was better over the past two seasons than his earned run average would indicate — but also still worse than he was in 2019-21 peak, when he fanned nearly 31% of his opponents against a stronger 8% walk rate.

Now, with Giolito’s entire season in doubt, any chances of rebounding could well be placed on hold for a year or more. At the very least, he’s in for a lengthy IL stint and will be absent to begin the season. That leaves Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Garrett Whitlock as the likeliest options to open the season in Boston’s rotation. Others on the 40-man roster include Brandon Walter, Chris Murphy and Cooper Criswell. The Sox have not yet added much in the way of veteran arms on non-roster deals to compete for jobs this spring, and they traded lefty Chris Sale to the Braves in the swap that brought second baseman Vaughn Grissom back to Boston.

A major injury to Giolito will undoubtedly fuel speculation regarding the top remaining arms on the market. Red Sox fans have clamored for Jordan Montgomery for much of the offseason. The team has spoken to him and shown interest at multiple points, including just prior to the start of spring training. The Boston connection for Montgomery is particularly strong, as his wife is doing her medical residency in the city. To this point, ownership and/or the front office have resisted meeting the 31-year-old’s asking price, but pressure to make some kind of move will only increase.

While fellow Boras Corporation clients Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman and (reportedly) Blake Snell shifted from seeking long-term deals and instead pursued opt-out laden short-term deals, all indications regarding Montgomery to this point have been that he’s still seeking a long-term deal. The Red Sox will need to weigh that ask while determining whether they want to throw more resources at a team that appears poorly positioned to contend for a postseason spot.

Montgomery wouldn’t cost the Sox a draft pick or international money, as he didn’t receive a qualifying offer, and the Sox are about $35MM from the luxury tax threshold, so Montgomery wouldn’t push them to that point either. Snell did reject a QO and would thus cost the Sox their second-best draft pick and $1MM of space in next year’s bonus pool for international amateur free agency. There are, of course, alternative options who’ve also not yet signed. Michael Lorenzen and Mike Clevinger, for instance, are both still available and both performed reasonably well in the majors just last season.

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