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Dodgers Sign James Paxton

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Jan. 31: The guarantee on Paxton’s deal is actually just $7MM, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. That comes in the form of the previously reported $3MM signing bonus and a $4MM salary. Additionally, Paxton will receive a $2MM bonus for being on the roster for either (but not both) the roster for the Dodgers’ season opener in South Korea against the Padres on March 20 or their domestic opener against the Cardinals on March 28. If not, he’d earn a $1MM bonus if added to the roster before April 15.

Paxton will also earn a $600K bonus for making his sixth, eighth, tenth, 12th and 16th starts of the season, plus a $1MM bonus for reaching 18 starts. In all, there’s an additional $6MM available in incentives. Essentially, if he’s healthy enough for to make the Opening Day roster and make 18 starts, he’ll earn $13MM on the one-year arrangement.

Jan. 23: An active offseason continues, as the Dodgers announced they have signed left-hander James Paxton to a one-year deal. The Boras Corporation client is reportedly guaranteed $11MM, taking the form of a $3MM signing bonus and an $8MM salary. He’d also receive a $1MM roster bonus if he’s healthy enough to be active on Opening Day (or $500K if he starts the year on the injured list but returns by April 15).

The deal also contains up to $1MM in performance bonuses. He’d lock in an extra $250K for making 16 and 18 starts apiece and would max out the deal with another $500K for reaching 20 starts. Los Angeles has yet to formally announce the contract, but they already have a vacancy on the 40-man roster.

Los Angeles has been MLB’s most aggressive team. While they’ve committed upwards of a billion dollars in free agency, the rotation depth still stands as a bit of a question mark. Shohei Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024 as he works back from elbow surgery. The Dodgers signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto and acquired Tyler Glasnow to join Walker Buehler  and Bobby Miller atop the starting staff.

There’s huge upside with that quartet, but it’s also a group that carries some risk. Excellent as Yamamoto has been in Japan, he has yet to pitch in the majors. Glasnow’s career high in innings at the MLB level, established last season, is only 120 frames. Buehler missed all of last season recovering from his second Tommy John surgery. Miller had a very good rookie season but only has 22 MLB starts to his name.

L.A. had a few notable departures from the rotation. Julio Urías is a free agent and unlikely to return as MLB investigates domestic violence allegations against him. Clayton Kershaw is still unsigned. While the Dodgers would surely welcome him back, he wouldn’t be an option until at least midseason as he rehabs from shoulder surgery. Ryan Pepiot was dealt to Tampa Bay in the Glasnow deal.

Tony Gonsolin could miss all of next season after undergoing his own TJS procedure in late August. Dustin May will be sidelined into the season after a flexor tendon surgery in early July. With both pitchers starting the season on the injured list, Los Angeles may have had to turn the fifth starter role to one of Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove, Ryan Yarbrough or Gavin Stone.

Should they finalize a deal with Paxton, he’d take the final spot in the Opening Day staff. He’s certainly not a bankable source of innings either. The 35-year-old has battled myriad injuries throughout his career, particularly over the last four years. He was limited to five starts during the shortened 2020 season. His elbow gave out during his first start of the ’21 campaign, necessitating Tommy John surgery. His efforts to make a comeback late in the ’22 season were derailed when he tore his lat on a minor league rehab stint.

A right hamstring strain forced the 6’4″ southpaw to open last year on the IL as well. He finally made it back on the mound in the second week of May. Despite the long layoff, Paxton brandished the 95 MPH fastball he’d owned before the surgery. For a while, that was translating into excellent results. The Canadian hurler worked to a 2.73 ERA while striking out more than 29% of opposing hitters in 56 innings through the All-Star Break.

He couldn’t maintain that form. Paxton allowed nearly seven earned runs per nine over 40 innings after the Midsummer Classic. His strikeouts plummeted to a modest 19.4% clip, while his walks jumped a few percentage points relative to the first half. Right knee inflammation sent him back to the IL in early September and ended his season a few weeks early. He finished the year with a 4.50 ERA in 96 innings covering 19 starts. His 24.6% strikeout rate was slightly above par, while he walked an average 8% of batters faced.

Given the volatility associated with the Dodgers’ collection of in-house arms, there’s an argument they should’ve pursued a more stable source of volume innings. That’s generally not how they’ve preferred to construct pitching staffs, however. The L.A. front office has shown a willingness to roll the dice on upside plays while accepting health risks. Paxton would be another acquisition of that ilk.

Of course, the Dodgers have the freedom to place those kinds of bets thanks to their spending capacity. Roster Resource projects the organization’s luxury tax commitments for the upcoming season at a staggering $301MM. Signing Paxton would push that number around $313MM, moving ahead of the Yankees and alongside the Mets for the highest payroll in the sport. That comes with a hefty tax bill.

The Dodgers are in the final tier of luxury penalization and have exceeded the threshold in each of the last two years. As a result, they’re taxed at a 110% rate on any spending at this point. Paxton’s deal would come with a $13.2MM fee, bringing their total expenditure to $25.2MM for one year of his services.

That’s a mark that few teams, if any, would come close to matching. Yet it’s the latest reflection of their all-in approach. Paxton would join Ohtani, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Teoscar Hernández, Manuel Margot and returnees Jason Heyward and Joe Kelly as notable offseason pickups as the Dodgers push for an 11th NL West title in the last 12 years.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the Dodgers and Paxton were working on an agreement. Alden González of ESPN reported the approximate $11MM guarantee. Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic reported the presence of performance bonuses. Heyman was first to confirm the deal was done and the presence of the Opening Day roster bonus, while The Associated Press specified the performance bonus terms and the contract breakdown.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Reports: Angelos Family Agrees To Sell Orioles

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The Angelos family plans to sell the Orioles to a group led by two private equity billionaires, David Rubenstein of the Carlyle Group and Mike Arougheti of Ares Management Corp., as first reported by Sportico and John Ourand of Puck News. Andy Kostka, Pamela Wood and Danielle Allentuck of the Baltimore Banner report that various others will have smaller ownership roles — including franchise icon Cal Ripken Jr.

Neither the Orioles nor MLB have yet commented on the news. The deal cannot be made official without league approval. Longtime O’s beat reporter Dan Connolly tweets that the owners will discuss the sale agreement at a previously scheduled owners meeting next week.

It was reported back in December that Rubenstein, a Baltimore native, was in talks to purchase the club. Rubenstein will eventually become the franchise’s “control person” assuming the deal is approved. Ourand reports the sale price will be $1.725 billion, about 10 times the $173MM for which the Angelos family purchased it in 1993.

The franchise will not be sold in its entirety right away. According to Ourand, the Rubenstein group will initially acquire roughly 40% of the ownership stake. The remainder of the Angelos’ family share will be transferred once longtime owner Peter Angelos, now 94, passes away. Previous reports have indicated the family would incur significant capital gains taxes if they sell the franchise in its entirety before Peter Angelos’ death.

It could be a franchise-altering piece of news for the Orioles and their fans. The Angelos family has owned the club since 1993. It was at that time that Peter Angelos was the principal investor of a group that bought the O’s. He collapsed in 2017 due to the failure of his aortic valve, leading his wife Georgia and sons John and Lou to take on more sizeable roles.

Reports emerged in June of 2022, highlighting infighting between the family members about control of the franchise. The league evidently approved John Angelos as the club’s “control person” in 2020, but multiple lawsuits between the family members were filed. The reporting surrounding those legal disputes revealed that Georgia hired Goldman Sachs to explore a possible sale. The various family lawsuits were dropped about a year ago as part of a reported settlement. “I would say that there’s not a plan to change the principal ownership or the managing partnership and there would be no reason to,” John said in February of last year.

As that drama has been playing out behind the scenes, there has also been a lot of public uncertainty surrounding the organization. Their lease agreement with the State of Maryland for Camden Yards was set to expire at the end of 2023. John Angelos was reportedly attempting to leverage the negotiations for a new lease to acquire public land. The idea seemed to be to transform the area based on the example set by the Braves with The Battery and Truist Park, allowing the O’s to develop a mixed-use area including various retail and commercial spaces.

A new lease agreement was eventually approved in mid-December, just before the previous deal was set to expire. As part of that deal, the O’s are committed to Camden Yards for the next 15 years, which can be expanded to 30 years if a new development plan is approved in the next four years. The discussions between Rubenstein and the Angelos family briefly held up government approval of the new lease. At the time, John Angelos reportedly assured Maryland governor Wes Moore there were no plans to sell a majority share of the franchise. That now seems set to change.

On top of the stadium situation, the Orioles and Nationals have an ongoing dispute concerning the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network. The two clubs share ownership of the network but with the O’s in the majority, presently around 76% and dropping to 67% by 2032. Those details were part of the agreement between the O’s and MLB to facilitate the relocation of the Expos from Montreal to Washington and therefore into the Orioles’ territorial range. The two clubs have been battling each other over the rights free related to MASN for many years.

Jeff Barker of the Baltimore Sun reports that Rubenstein will also acquire the O’s share in MASN. It’s not yet clear if there’ll be any change in the relationship between the Orioles and the Nationals.

Then there’s the on-field product, which could perhaps be related to the ownership situation. The club has been rebuilding for much of the period after Peter Angelos’ health issues, but they quite clearly emerged from that rebuild in recent seasons. They posted terrible results from 2018 to 2021 but stockpiled young talent in the process. As their young players started graduating to the majors, they managed to go 83-79 in 2022. They followed that up with a 101-win campaign last year, winning the American League East.

Despite those better results of late, the club has made almost no moves that commit long-term money or give up their young talent in order to bolster the current roster. Their stacked farm system has led to plenty of speculation about a blockbuster deal involving someone like Dylan Cease, but nothing has materialized. Meanwhile, their free agent spending this winter has been limited to a one-year deal for reliever Craig Kimbrel.

Taken all together, there are plenty of questions to be answered about how the franchise will proceed. While many O’s fans will be happy to see the Angelos family depart, it’s unknown how different the new regime will be. If the deal is completed, a picture of the future for the franchise will gradually come into focus. As it does, it could have ramifications for the team and others such as the Nats, as well as the city of Baltimore and the State of Maryland.

Rubenstein, 74, is the co-founder and co-chairman of the Carlyle Group, a private equity company. He was born in Baltimore and Forbes estimates his net worth as $3.7 billion.

Mets Re-Sign Adam Ottavino

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The Mets announced the re-signing of veteran reliever Adam Ottavino to a one-year contract on Tuesday evening. A client of WME Baseball, Ottavino is reportedly guaranteed $4.5MM.

The arrangement will see Ottavino return to Queens for a third consecutive season just months after the right-hander declined a $6.75MM player option with the club. Earlier this week, Ottavino discussed his decision to decline that option during an appearance on the Foul Territory podcast. The 38-year-old veteran made clear that while he loved being part of the Mets organization, he had concerns at the time about the club’s future given their at-the-time uncertain managerial situation and rumors the club planned to take a step back during the 2024 campaign. That sort of situation wasn’t appealing to Ottavino, as he noted that he hopes to win a World Series before his career comes to a close.

Since Ottavino’s decision to test the open market, the club has stayed active at the lower levels of free agency and on the trade market. The club shored up its hitting corps by bringing in outfielders Harrison Bader and Tyrone Taylor alongside infielder Joey Wendle, while the bullpen was bolstered by the addition of Jorge Lopez. The most impactful changes can be found in the starting staff, where the Mets have acquired Sean Manaea, Adrian Houser, and Luis Severino to join incumbent arms Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana as members of the rotation mix.

Those additions, along with the hiring of former Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza as manager, seem to have given Ottavino the confidence in New York’s chances in 2024 necessary for him to re-sign with the club. While the player option declined by the right-hander back in November came with a nominally larger guarantee, it’s important to note that Ottavino previously told the New York Post’s Joel Sherman that $4MM of his $6.75MM salary would have been deferred. This deal includes no such deferred money, meaning that today’s deal actually improves upon the previously-declined option in terms of present value.

The veteran figures to provide a stabilizing force in the Mets’ bullpen for the 2024 campaign behind star closer Edwin Diaz, where he’ll likely share set-up duties with the likes of Brooks Raley and Drew Smith. It’s a role Ottavino is familiar with, as the righty has notched 179 holds throughout his 13-year tenure in the majors on top of his 45 career saves. Since establishing himself as a fixture of the Rockies’ bullpen back in 2012, Ottavino has compiled a strong 3.25 ERA and 3.52 FIP across 659 appearances with Colorado, Boston, and both New York clubs. By measure of ERA+, the veteran has never posted a campaign below league average during a 162-game season, with the lone blemish on that resume being 18 1/3 innings of 5.89 ERA ball during the shortened 2020 campaign.

That kind of stable production figures to be a major boost for the Mets’ relief corps, which struggled badly down the stretch after parting ways with closer David Robertson at the trade deadline last summer. Following the deadline, Mets relievers struggled to a 5.19 ERA that was bottom-six in the majors during that timeframe. Ottavino, by contrast, was a bright spot in the club’s bullpen down the stretch with a 2.55 ERA and a 28.9% strikeout rate in 19 appearances during which he picked up six saves. Given that strong performance, it’s hardly a surprise that the club landed upon a reunion with the veteran as a resolution to their search for additional bullpen help. Going forward, it’s possible the club could look to make an addition at third base or DH, though president of baseball operations David Stearns has made clear that the club doesn’t want to take opportunities away from young players like Brett Baty and Mark Vientos with external additions.

The deal makes Ottavino the latest bullpen arm to come off the market in recent weeks. The right-hander joins the likes of David Robertson, Robert Stephenson, Aroldis Chapman, Hector Neris, and Matt Moore in signing a new deal shortly relief ace Josh Hader recently agreed to a five-year pact with the Astros earlier this month. Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek, and Ryan Brasier are among the best options remaining for clubs looking to strengthen their relief corps.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported the Mets and Ottavino were in agreement on a one-year, $4.5MM contract. Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Royals Sign Adam Frazier

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An active offseason for the Royals continued Tuesday, as the team announced the signing of veteran second baseman/left fielder Adam Frazier to a one-year contract with a 2025 mutual option. Frazier, a client of McKinnis Sports, will reportedly be guaranteed $4.5MM in the form of a $2MM base salary in 2024 and a $2.5MM buyout on the 2025 option, which is valued at $8.5MM.

Frazier hit .240/.300/.396 over 445 plate appearances with the Orioles last season, after inking a one-year, $8MM contract back in December 2022.  Brought in to provide some veteran leadership within a young Baltimore infield, Frazier got the bulk of starting second base duty, with Ramon Urias acting a platoon partner in the first half of the season and then Jordan Westburg stepping into the platoon after making his MLB debut.  With Westburg tabbed for a bigger role and star prospect Jackson Holliday also on the verge of his Major League debut and joining Gunnar Henderson in the Baltimore infield in 2024, the Orioles seemed content with moving on from Frazier and turning things over to their impresssive young core.

In signing with Kansas City, Frazier is basically assuming the same role as an experienced big leaguer on an overall young team, even if the Royals have been aggressive in adding some veteran help.  Most of their moves have come on the pitching end (i.e. Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, and a host of relievers), though the Royals also addressed their position-player mix by signing outfielder Hunter Renfroe to a two-year, $13MM pact and utilityman Garrett Hampson on a one-year, $2MM contract.

The platoon fit isn’t quite as clean in K.C. as it was in Baltimore, as presumptive second baseman Michael Massey is also a left-handed hitter.  However, Massey has yet to show much against big league pitching, with only a .233/.284/.379 slash line to show over the small sample size of 655 career PA.  The Royals obviously still want to see what they have in Massey, and Frazier’s ability to play the corner outfield also creates some room for both players to be in the lineup when a righty is on the mound.

It is also fair to wonder what the 32-year-old Frazier can deliver at the plate, given how his own numbers have been subpar for the better part of four seasons.  Frazier has a .260/.323/.370 slash line and a 94 wRC+ over 1926 PA since the start of the 2020 season, and those numbers are buoyed by a great first half of the 2021 campaign.  Frazier was even named to the 2021 All-Star Game based on that early showing, yet a hefty BABIP suggested that some regression was in order, and that downturn came after Frazier was dealt to the Padres at the trade deadline.

Frazier has been one of the better contact hitters in baseball over the course of his eight-year career, as only 22 qualified hitters have a lower strikeout rate than the 13% number Frazier has posted since debuting with Pittsburgh in 2016.  The problem is that Frazier’s hard-contact and barrel rates are near the bottom of the league in that same period, and with a subpar 7.4% walk rate, Frazier’s offense has tended to wane unless the batted-ball luck is swinging in his favor.

Usually a very solid defensive second baseman, Frazier’s glovework tumbled last year in the view of public defensive metrics.  His 0.2 UZR/150 was just slightly above average, while his -4 Defensive Runs Saved and -15 Outs Above Average painted a more dire picture.  Frazier has been passable enough as an outfielder that he could get more looks in the corners if Massey hits well enough to draw regular work at the keystone, and he could complement Renfroe in right field or MJ Melendez (another left-handed bat) in left field.

While none of the Royals’ expenditures this offseason have individually counted as splurges, the club had already spent $101MM on free agents even before signing Frazier.  K.C. is projected by Roster Resource for an $111.5MM payroll without Frazier’s still-unknown price tag added, so the Royals have topped their $91MM payroll from 2023 by a healthy margin.  This tracks with general manager J.J. Picollo’s statement in early December that the Royals were going to increase their payroll around $30MM this winter, with some possible flexibility to spend even more in the right scenario.

After winning the World Series in 2015, Kansas City was a .500 team in 2016 and has now posted seven straight losing seasons.  A rebuilding process has either yet to fully materialize or has stalled out entirely, given how the Royals’ 106 losses last season matched the highest total in franchise history.  Picollo (who took over the front office late in the 2022 season) might have gotten some leeway in his first full year as GM because a lot of focus was placed on revamping the team’s developmental system, yet it is clear the Royals are aiming to be much more respectable on the field in 2024.  Most of their offseason signings have been pretty short-term in nature, so if necessary, K.C. could pivot to trading any of these veterans at the deadline if the club again isn’t in contention.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the agreement between the two parties. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported the financial terms.

Diamondbacks Sign Joc Pederson

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Jan. 30: The D-backs have formally announced the signing of Pederson to a one-year deal with a mutual option.

Jan. 25: The Diamondbacks continue adding to the lineup. They’re reportedly in agreement with designated hitter/outfielder Joc Pederson on a one-year, $12.5MM guarantee. The Excel Sports Management client will receive a $9.5MM salary next season and is due a $3MM buyout on a 2025 mutual option valued at $14MM.

Pederson, 32 in April, has been a potent slugger in the big leagues for a decade now. Since his 2014 debut, he has launched 186 home runs while playing for the Dodgers, Cubs, Braves and Giants.

That latter club has employed Pederson for the past two seasons. He signed a one-year, $6MM deal going into 2022 and gave the club plenty of return on that investment. He hit 23 home runs and walked in 9.7% of his plate appearances. His .274/.353/.521 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 146, indicating he was 46% better than league average. His defense continued to be a liability, but that offensive production was excellent.

The Giants were clearly impressed, as they surprisingly extended a $19.65MM qualifying offer to Pederson going into 2023. He accepted that offer and returned to San Francisco for another year, which led to results that were a bit more mixed. His walk rate jumped up to 13.4% but his batting average dipped and he only hit 15 home runs on the year. His .235/.348/.416 batting line led to a wRC+ of 111, still above average but a big drop from the year prior.

Despite the down year in terms of results, there are reasons to be bullish, something recently explored by Leo Morgenstern of MLBTR. Pederson’s Statcast page continues to glow with a crimson red, as his hard hit rate and average exit velocity are both in the top 10% of qualified hitters. Despite continually pummeling the ball, his batting average on balls in play dropped from .310 in 2022 to .268.

That latter figure exactly matches his career BABIP, which arguably points more to 2022 being an outlier than the most recent season. But on the other hand, 2023 was the first year with the ban on defensive shifts. As a slow-running left-handed power bat, Pederson was the exact type of player the shift ban was supposed to help, and yet his BABIP dropped by over 40 points as his quality of contact stayed strong.

Even if the BABIP fortune doesn’t change, Pederson can be a valuable platoon bat. His .242/.344/.490 line against righties in his career translates to a 125 wRC+, compared to a line of .209/.293/.329 and a 73 wRC+ against lefties. His 2023 results were pretty close to those career marks, with a .241/.351/.435 slash and 115 wRC+ with the platoon advantage and .186/.327/.279 and 80 wRC+ otherwise.

Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen has been open for some time about the club’s willingness to add a full-time designated hitter, and Pederson would fit the bill. He can play the outfield a bit, and has seen brief stints at first base, but his glovework has never been highly rated and his time spent on the grass has declined over time. He only made 23 starts in the outfield in 2023 and logged just 204 innings there for the year.

Those figures may decline even further in 2024 if a deal gets done with the Snakes. They will likely have Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. as their regular outfield, with Jake McCarthy and Dominic Fletcher on hand for depth. With those outfielders on the roster, they wouldn’t need Pederson to don a glove very often.

After making a surprise World Series run in 2023, the Diamondbacks have been active in reloading the roster for 2024. They traded for Eugenio Suárez to take over as their third baseman and signed Eduardo Rodríguez to strengthen their rotation. If they are able to get a deal done with Pederson, it would add another threat to the lineup.

Those moves have pushed the club into unprecedented payroll territory, despite the fact that their RSN deal with Diamond Sports Group collapsed in 2023. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the club’s franchise record Opening Day payroll is $132MM. Roster Resource now projects next year’s payroll figure above $142MM.

ESPN’s Buster Olney first reported the Diamondbacks and Pederson were in discussions. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reported the sides were closing in an agreement. Steve Gilbert of MLB.com was first to report the sides had agreed to a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2025. Piecoro reported the salary breakdown.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Mariners Acquire Jorge Polanco

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The Mariners and Twins have lined up on one of the bigger trades of the offseason. Seattle announced the acquisition of second baseman Jorge Polanco for four players: reliever Justin Topa, starter Anthony DeSclafani and prospects Gabriel Gonzalez and Darren Bowen, as well as cash considerations. The Mariners are reportedly including $8MM to cover two-thirds of DeSclafani’s $12MM salary for the upcoming campaign.

Seattle and Minnesota have long seemed an on-paper fit for this kind of move. The M’s didn’t get much out of their second basemen last season. Opening Day starter Kolten Wong was released midway through the year. Landing Josh Rojas in the deadline deal that sent Paul Sewald to the D-Backs helped to an extent, but the position still seemed a weakness entering the offseason.

The M’s further thinned the infield with a trade sending third baseman Eugenio Suárez to Arizona. Seattle brought in non-tender candidate Luis Urías in a deal with the Red Sox to add a contact-oriented hitter to the mix. While Rojas and Urías could split time between second and third base, it’d have been risky to count on both players as regulars.

As a result, Seattle lands one of the top offensive middle infielders on the trade market. The switch-hitting Polanco has posted above-average numbers at the plate in four of the past five seasons. Since the start of the 2019 campaign, he owns a .267/.337/.458 slash in nearly 2400 plate appearances. Knee and hamstring issues bothered him early last season, but he hit at a typically solid level when healthy. Polanco connected on 14 homers over 80 games, running a .255/.335/.454 line through 343 trips to the dish.

That steady production made it an easy call for the Twins to exercise a $10.5MM option on his contract. That’s a below-market price for a quality regular. Yet even with Minnesota triggering the option, there was a general belief that he could find himself on the move this offseason. The Twins have an enviable collection of infield talent that already threatened to bump the 30-year-old Polanco from his natural position.

While Polanco was on the injured list, 24-year-old Edouard Julien mashed his way to the second base job. He hit .263/.381/.459 as a rookie to secure a spot atop Rocco Baldelli’s lineup. The Twins gave Polanco 103 innings at third base once he returned, his first action at the hot corner since 2016. With former first overall pick Royce Lewis emerging as a star down the stretch and into the postseason, that wouldn’t have been an avenue to regular playing time moving forward.

Minnesota could have used Polanco at second base while deploying Julien at designated hitter. That would have limited their flexibility to cycle other players through the DH spot while potentially pigeon-holing one of Minnesota’s more talented young hitters to a bat-only role. Polanco had some experience at shortstop early in his career, but he moved off the position because of defensive shortcomings and clearly wasn’t going to start over Carlos Correa. Minnesota also tendered arbitration contracts to utility infielders Kyle Farmer and Nick Gordon. José Miranda remains on hand as an option at the corners, while former #8 overall pick Brooks Lee could make his MLB debut in 2024.

It surely wasn’t an easy call for the front office to move on from one of their longest-tenured players. Polanco had been in the organization since signing as a 16-year-old back in 2009. He reached the big leagues before his 21st birthday and established himself as a regular by 2016. Polanco earned an All-Star nod and down-ballot MVP votes in ’19 and played a key role on four playoff teams.

The amount of infield depth nevertheless made a trade a distinct possibility. Minnesota’s pitching staff took a hit with free agent departures of Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle. The Twins had done very little to balance the roster, citing payroll constraints related to their expiring local broadcasting contract. Minnesota was willing to field offers on their infield surplus, although president of baseball operations Derek Falvey made clear they’d seek MLB help as part of that return.

Seattle was open to parting with both a pair of big league arms and at least one of their top minor league talents to get the deal done. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times writes that the M’s plan to use Polanco as their primary second baseman. That could leave the lefty-hitting Rojas and the right-handed swinging Urías to share time at third base. The M’s could keep Polanco at the keystone for two years. They’ll take on this year’s $10.5MM salary and hold a $12MM option for 2025 that comes with a $750K buyout. If Polanco performs at the level the Mariners envision, they’d likely exercise that option.

The Mariners relinquish some of their pitching depth to make that happen. Topa has less name value of the two MLB players headed to Minneapolis, but he’s the more appealing trade asset. The right-hander was a key part of another excellent Seattle bullpen a year ago. Acquired from the Brewers for a minor league pitcher in what seemed an insignificant trade last winter, the righty put together a career year.

Topa, who had 17 career MLB appearances going into the season, pitched 75 times for the M’s a year ago. He worked to a 2.61 ERA across 69 innings. Topa’s 21.9% strikeout rate was a little below average, but he did an excellent job keeping the ball on the ground. Working with a 95 MPH sinker and a pair of breaking pitches in his cutter and slider, he induced worm-burners at a very strong 56.7% clip. His production increasingly earned the trust of manager Scott Servais. By year’s end, he’d picked up 23 holds and a trio of saves.

If Topa can maintain that kind of production, he’d be an asset for the Minnesota relief corps. There’s a fair bit of risk with the 6’4″ hurler. Topa will turn 33 before Opening Day and has a lengthy injury history. He had undergone two Tommy John procedures and a flexor tendon surgery during his time in Milwaukee, a major reason he hadn’t logged extended MLB action until last year.

He accrued a decent chunk of service time while on the injured list and surpassed the three-year mark a year ago. Seattle and Topa agreed to a $1.25MM salary to avoid arbitration. He’ll go through that process twice more and won’t reach free agency until after the 2026 campaign. Topa still has a pair of minor league options, so the Twins could send him to Triple-A if he struggles unexpectedly.

DeSclafani spent less than a month as a member of the Mariners. Seattle acquired the righty alongside Mitch Haniger in the trade sending Robbie Ray to the Giants just after the New Year. His inclusion in both trades is motivated in large part by finances.

The 33-year-old (34 in April) is set to make $12MM in the final season of a three-year free agent deal he inked with San Francisco. The Giants are paying half of that, sending $6MM to Seattle as part of the Ray trade. Seattle is moving that $6MM to Minnesota and including an additional $2MM. The Twins are responsible for the final $4MM on the deal.

It has been a tough couple years for DeScalfani, who was limited to five starts in 2022 before undergoing season-ending ankle surgery. Injures were again an issue last year. This time, a flexor strain in his throwing elbow ended his season in late July.

Before the arm injury, he had pitched 19 times and logged 99 2/3 innings. The nine-year veteran worked to a 4.88 ERA with a below-average 18.9% strikeout percentage. He walked fewer than 5% of opponents but he’s lost a few points off his strikeout and ground-ball numbers since his excellent 2021 campaign, when he posted a 3.17 ERA over 31 starts.

The Mariners were set to use DeSclafani in a long relief capacity. Minnesota could afford him a chance to battle for the #5 spot in the season-opening rotation. The Twins have Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Chris Paddack in the top four spots. DeSclafani and right-hander Louie Varland are the top options for the final rotation job. Whichever of those two starts the season in long relief could move into the rotation as injuries necessitate.

Gonzalez, who turned 20 this month, isn’t going to contribute at the MLB level anytime soon. He’s nevertheless arguably the headliner of the deal from Minnesota’s perspective. The right-handed hitting outfielder signed with Seattle for $1.3MM out of Venezuela during the 2021-22 international period. Baseball America recently ranked him the #5 prospect in the M’s system, while MLB Pipeline has him as the game’s #79 overall minor league talent.

Evaluators praise Gonzalez’s natural bat-to-ball skills. Those were on display in Low-A, where he hit .348/.403/.530 with a modest 13.7% strikeout rate in 335 plate appearances last year. However, Baseball America notes that Gonzalez has an extremely aggressive offensive approach that was exposed when he was promoted to High-A midseason. He struggled to a .215/.290/.387 slash while fanning at a 21.5% clip in 200 plate appearances at that level. Gonzalez walked in fewer than 7% of his plate appearances at both stops. As a below-average athlete who projects as a corner outfielder, he’ll need to improve his plate discipline to reach his potential.

Bowen, 22, was a 13th-round draftee in the 2022 draft. A product of UNC-Pembroke, he worked to a 3.88 ERA through 55 2/3 innings at Low-A in his first pro season. The 6’3″ right-hander ranked as Seattle’s #25 prospect at BA. The outlet credits him with low-mid 90s velocity and a potential above-average breaking pitch. Bowen draws praise for his athleticism but presently has below-average control, evidenced by a 10.9% walk rate in the minors.

Taking on Polanco’s contract will push Seattle’s payroll commitments into the $135MM range, as calculated by Roster Resource, depending on how much of the DeSclafani contract they’re retaining. They opened last season around $137MM. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto indicated early in the winter that Seattle expected to top last season’s spending and they’re now right near that mark. Minnesota’s payroll estimate drops to roughly $119MM, leaving them some flexibility to supplement the roster over the next few weeks.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported the sides were finalizing a trade sending Polanco to Seattle. Jeff Passan of ESPN confirmed an agreement was in place. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the Twins were acquiring four players, two of whom were big leaguers. Robert Murray of FanSided reported Topa’s inclusion, while Dan Hayes of the Athletic had DeSclafani’s and Gonzalez’s involvement. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel reported the Twins were receiving Bowen and the presence of cash considerations, which Rosenthal specified were coming from Seattle’s end. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reported the Mariners were paying upwards of $6MM in cash considerations. Hayes and Rosenthal specified the M’s were including $8MM in cash considerations.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Angels Sign Aaron Hicks To One-Year Deal

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The Angels announced the signing of veteran outfielder Aaron Hicks on a major league deal. Left-hander Kolton Ingram was designated for assignment in a corresponding 40-man roster move. Hicks, a CAA client, previously signed a contract extension with the Yankees, a deal that runs through 2025. The Yanks released him last year and are still on the hook for what’s left, meaning the Angels will only owe the prorated $740K league minimum for any time spent on the roster, with that amount subtracted from what the Yankees pay.

Hicks, 34, had a strong run with the Yankees earlier in his career, performing as an all-around player in the Bronx. From 2017 to 2020, he drew walks in 15.1% of his plate appearances while only striking out at a 20.5% clip. He hit 60 home runs in 338 games, leading to a .247/.362/.457 batting line and a 123 wRC+. He also stole 26 bases and served as the club’s primary center fielder.

It was midway through that stretch, going into 2019, that the Yanks bought into Hicks and signed him to an extension. He was just one year away from free agency at the time but agreed to a seven-year, $70MM pact that was supposed to keep him in the Bronx through 2025. He had already agreed to a $6MM salary for 2019 so the deal added six years and $64MM of new money. That was a relative rarity for the club, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. Since February of 2014, that’s one of just three extensions given out by the Yanks, the other two being for Luis Severino and Aroldis Chapman.

Health became an issue in the early parts of that contract. In 2019, he went on the injured list due to a left lower back strain and then again due to a right flexor strain, only playing 59 games that year. In 2020, the pandemic shortened the season to 60 games, with Hicks playing in 54 of them. Then in 2021, a left wrist injury limited him to just 32 contests and poor performance when on the field. The shortened season obviously wasn’t his fault but he nonetheless found himself having been unable to log a normal amount of playing time in three straight seasons.

He was finally able to stay healthy in 2022, getting into 130 contests for the Yanks that year. But he hit just eight home runs in that time and his .216/.330/.313 slash line led to a wRC+ of just 91. He told Dan Martin of The New York Post in September of 2022 that he tried to come back from wrist surgery lean and athletic to stay healthy but that it backfired by sapping his power. His struggles continued in the early parts of the 2023 season, leading the Yankees to release him in May, despite the contract still having another two full guaranteed years.

The Orioles took a shot on Hicks, a move with no real financial risk since the Yanks were stuck holding the bag. Hicks bounced back in Baltimore, hitting seven home runs in 65 games, leading to a .275/.381/.425 slash line and 129 wRC+. He also stole six bases and helped the O’s by slotting into each of the three outfield positions.

That’s still a fairly small sample size of success after more than two years of struggles, but it’s sensible for the Angels to take the risk that he could perform well in the coming season. Hicks is still set to make a salary of $9.5MM both this year and next, then there’s a $1MM buyout on a 2026 club option, but the Yanks will be paying the majority of that. The Halos will only have to pay the prorated portion of the $740K league minimum for any time that Hicks spends on their roster.

For Hicks, money would not have been a factor in signing this deal since his salary is already set. It’s possible that he was attracted to playing his home games in Southern California, as he was born in Los Angeles and grew up in Long Beach. Beyond that, the Angels are at least going to attempt fielding a competitive team this year and could perhaps offer Hicks some decent playing time.

The club’s outfield mix prior to signing Hicks consisted of Mike Trout, Taylor Ward, Mickey Moniak and Jo Adell. Trout is obviously one of the most talented players in the game but durability has started to become a bit of a concern. Thanks to some nagging injuries and the shortened 2020 season, he hasn’t played 120 games in a campaign since 2019. Adding a player capable of playing some center field like Hicks could perhaps help Trout stay healthy as he goes into a season in which he will turn 33 years old.

Ward has only once played 100 games in a season, which was in 2022. Last year, he was limited to 97 contests, his season ending on a scary incident when he was hit in the face by a pitch from Alek Manoah. Moniak seemed to have something of a breakout last year, hitting 14 home runs in 85 games. But he’s likely due for some regression when considering his 2.8% walk rate, 35% strikeout rate and .397 batting average on balls in play. Adell has similar walk and strikeout rates across the past four seasons without the semi-encouraging power surge to go with. Considering that mix, there should be plenty of playing time available to Hicks. The designated hitter slot is also open now that Shohei Ohtani has signed with the Dodgers.

It’s possible that this move bodes particularly poorly for Adell. He has received part-time action in each of the past four campaigns but has hit just .214/.259/.366 while striking out at a 35.4% clip and walking in only 4.8% of his plate appearances. Though he was a 10th overall selection back in 2017, he is now out of options and doesn’t have a clear path to playing time.

As for Ingram, the 27-year-old lefty just made his major league debut last year. He made five appearances for the Angels, allowing five earned runs in 5 1/3 innings. He split the rest of the year between Double-A and Triple-A, tossing 61 innings with a 2.95 ERA and 30.2% strikeout rate, but a 13.3% walk rate. The major league work didn’t go well and the control issues aren’t new for him, but the minor league strikeouts are intriguing and he still has a couple of options remaining. The Angels will now have a week to trade him or try to pass him through waivers.

Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register first reported the Angels were signing Hicks.

Tigers Sign Colt Keith To Six-Year Extension

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The Tigers announced a six-year contract extension with infield prospect Colt Keith. The deal guarantees Keith $28.6425MM and could max out at $82MM over nine years if three club options (covering the 2030, 2031, and 2032 seasons) are all escalated and exercised. Keith is represented by Munger English Sports Management.

In addition to a $2MM signing bonus, Keith will earn $2.5MM in salary for the 2024 campaign, $3.5MM in 2025, $4MM per season in 2026 and ’27, and $5MM per season in 2028 and ’29. Each club option includes salary escalators, but the values currently break down as follows — the 2030 club option is valued at $10MM with a $2.6425MM buyout, the 2031 option worth $13MM ($1MM buyout), and the 2032 option worth $15MM ($2MM buyout).

Keith, 22, was a fifth-round pick by the Tigers in the 2020 draft and has since ascended rapidly through the minor leagues with a .300/.382/.512 slash line across all levels, including a .306/.380/.552 slash line in 126 games split between Double- and Triple-A last season. The youngster has emerged as a consensus Top-30 prospect in the game, with MLB.com ranking him 22nd while Baseball America placed him 28th. Both president of baseball operations Scott Harris and Keith himself commented on the extension in a press release following the announcement.

“This is a very exciting day for the Detroit Tigers, Colt, his family, and our fans,” Harris said in the presser. “This contract demonstrates our faith in Colt and this organization’s commitment to acquire, develop, and retain young talent.”

“I couldn’t be more excited to reach this agreement, securing my place in this organization for years to come,” Keith added. “There’s a reason I felt strongly about making a long-term commitment to be here, and being surrounded by incredibly talented teammates and coaches is a big part of that… I know this is a big accomplishment, but ultimately my mission is to be the best player possible and help win a World Series Championship for Tigers fans everywhere.”

The 22-year-old Keith has now scored a significant windfall after signing for just a $500K bonus out of the draft. Beyond the financial security, Keith also has certainty that he will remain part of the Tigers’ long-term plans as they look to build upon their surprising second place finish in the AL Central last year. For Detroit, the extension affords the club some cost certainty regarding Keith’s arbitration years plus an additional three seasons of team control. If all three options are exercised, Keith will stay in a Tigers uniform through his age-30 season.

It’s the fourth-largest deal in league history for a prospect who has yet to make their MLB debut. Keith’s extension trails only the guarantees for White Sox outfielders Luis Robert Jr. ($50MM) and Eloy Jimenez ($43MM) as well as the record-setting $82MM deal agreed to by outfield prospect Jackson Chourio and the Brewers earlier this winter.

Keith was already expected to join the big league roster as the Tigers’ everyday second baseman at some point in the year, but today’s deal all but guarantees he’ll be in the lineup on Opening Day if healthy. The deal takes away the opportunity for the Tigers to secure an extra year of team control over the infielder, but Detroit is still eligible for an extra Prospect Promotion Incentive draft pick. This pick would be awarded in the event that Keith earns a full year of service time in 2024 and either wins the AL Rookie of the Year award or places in the top three of MVP voting before he would have been eligible for arbitration.

With Keith likely to occupy the keystone for the Tigers entering the season, the likes of Zach McKinstry, Nick Maton, Andy Ibanez, and Matt Vierling will be competing for playing time at third base when camp opens for Spring Training next month. While the third base keys figure to be handed to another top prospect in Jace Jung at some point in the future, the 23-year-old has not yet made an appearance at the Triple-A level and appears unlikely to break camp with the Tigers. Keith and Jung figure to be the latest in a line of top prospects to reach the majors for Detroit in recent years, including starting pitchers jTarik Skubal and Casey Mize, and position players Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene.

As their prospects begin to reach the majors and establish themselves at the big league level, the Tigers have looked to augment the roster with short-term veteran additions who won’t block the younger players from earning regular playing time. This offseason, Detroit struck early to land outfielder Mark Canha in a deal with the Brewers before bolstering their rotation with by signing free agent right-handers Kenta Maeda and Jack Flaherty. The club has also added reinforcements to their bullpen in the form of Andrew Chafin and Shelby Miller. Those veteran additions figure to strengthen the club’s burgeoning young core as they gear up for a run in what projects to be a relatively weak AL Central division, though the Twins figure to remain the on-paper favorite even after allowing both Maeda and ace righty Sonny Gray to depart via free agency this winter.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Cubs Sign Hector Neris

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The Cubs have signed right-hander Hector Neris to a one-year, $9MM contract, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (via X).  There is a $9MM club option attached for the 2025 season, and that vests into a player option if Neris makes at least 60 appearances this season.  Between that option and additional incentive bonuses, the deal could be worth as much as $23.25 over the two seasons.  Neris is represented by Octagon.

Best known for his time as the Phillies’ closer, Neris has spent the last two seasons in Houston, and is coming off (technically) the best year of his decade-long Major League career.  Neris posted a 1.71 ERA over 68 1/3 innings out of the Astros’ bullpen, with an excellent 28.2% strikeout rate and some of the best soft-contact numbers of any pitcher in baseball.

There were a few red flags, however, which is likely why the righty landed what is officially just a one-year guarantee.  Neris’ fastball velocity dropped to 93mph in 2023, rather markedly down from the 94.3mph average of his first nine seasons.  He also had an 11.4% walk rate, marking the third time in the last four seasons that Neris’ walk rate has sat within the bottom 23rd percentile of all pitches.  With a tiny .219 BABIP and a big 90.5% strand rate also aiding his efforts, Neris’ 3.89 SIERA was over two runs higher than his real-world ERA.

It’s fair to assume that some regression is in order, and these troubling secondary metrics aren’t exactly a great sign for a pitcher who turns 35 in June.  However, even if Neris’ 2024 ERA is closer to that 3.89 figure, he still figures to bring value to Chicago’s relief corps in terms of both results and durability.  Neris has a league-best 307 appearances since the start of the 2019 season, and a stint on the COVID-related injury list in 2020 marks the only time Neris has ever appeared on the IL during his big league career.

This kind of durability holds particular appeal for a Cubs team that was hit hard with bullpen injuries down the stretch, which contributed to Chicago’s 12-16 record in September and subsequent near-miss of a wild card berth.  The Cubs were naturally known to be looking for relief help, though president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has traditionally been wary about committing big money to the pen given the year-to-year volatility of many relievers.

In that sense, Neris’ contract represents more aggression even if it remains a one-year deal, considering that the Cubs haven’t gone beyond $5MM on a relief pitcher since signing Craig Kimbrel in June 2019.  Should Neris eat his usual amount of innings, hitting the 60-appearance threshold shouldn’t be too much of an issue, and thus he would top the two-year, $15MM deal that MLBTR projected for the reliever at the start of the offseason.  Neris ranked 46th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents.

Neris has a similar clause in his previous deal, a two-year/$17MM pact signed with Houston in the 2021-22 offseason.  The Astros held an $8.5MM club option ($1MM buyout) on Neris for 2024 that vested into a player option if Neris both passed a physical after the 2023 campaign, and if he made at least 110 appearances over the course of the two seasons.  Neris ended pitching in 141 games, and then opted to decline his player option to re-enter the market in search of a richer deal.

Adbert Alzolay blossomed as the Cubs’ closer in 2023, and Neris will now step right in as Wrigleyville’s top setup option.  Neris joins Yency Almonte as newcomers in the relief corps, and it can’t be assumed that the Cubs are now done with their bullpen shopping.  Adding another veteran on at least a minor league deal seems like a possibility, and if Neris represents a bit of a splashy spend, perhaps Chicago could look for another reliever on a guaranteed deal within that sub-$5MM comfort zone.

The Cubs’ payroll now sits at roughly $196.3MM, and there’s still plenty of room to go before Chicago hits the $237MM luxury tax threshold.  A big-ticket signing like Cody Bellinger could naturally absorb a lot of that remaining space, but there’s still plenty of flexibility for Hoyer during what has been a pretty quiet winter overall for the Cubs.  The Shohei Ohtani pursuit carried a lot of the team’s attention in the offseason’s first month, though the Cubs have since added Shota Imanaga and Neris in free agency, while also adding Almonte and Michael Busch in a trade with the Dodgers.

The Astros, Cardinals, Mets, Rangers, and Yankees were all linked to Neris at various points this offseason.  Earlier this month, it seemed as if the Rangers and Yankees were looking like the favorites to sign the right-hander, but Chicago ended up emerging to win the bidding.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Nationals Sign Joey Gallo

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TODAY: The signing has officially been announced.  The deal also contains a mutual option for the 2025 season.

JANUARY 23: The Nationals and first baseman/outfielder Joey Gallo have agreed to a one-year deal, reports Andrew Golden of The Washington Post (X links). The deal for the Boras Corporation client, which is pending a physical, is for $5MM with another $1MM available in performance bonuses.

Gallo, 30, has been the poster boy for the “three true outcomes” in a major league career that’s almost a decade old at this point. Having debuted with the Rangers in 2015, he has played in 863 games, with 198 home runs to his name in that time. He has struck out in 37.9% of his plate appearances, which is much higher than par. For reference, the league average in 2023 was 22.7%. But he’s also drawn walks in 14.8% of his career plate appearances, well beyond the 2023 league average of 8.6%.

It’s an unusual combination but one that still allows Gallo to be a productive offensive contributor when taken all together. Though his career batting line .197/.323/.466 has him below the Mendoza line, the walks and the homers still help him translate that into a wRC+ of 109. He signed a one-year, $11MM deal with the Twins for 2023 and batted .197/.323/.466 for a wRC+ of 104, hitting 21 home runs while striking out in 42.8% of his plate appearances.

It’s perhaps worth highlighting that the tenability of this oddly-shaped performance has declined over the years. Gallo had his best run with the Rangers from 2017 to 2019, slashing .217/.336/.533 in that time for a wRC+ of 120. He hit a rough patch in 2020 but then bounced back with a strong showing early in 2021, enough for him to be traded to the Yankees alongside Joely Rodríguez. But Gallo’s production fell off again after the deal and didn’t rebound in 2022, with the Yanks flipping him to the Dodgers midseason. He finished that season with a line of .160/.280/.357 and wRC+ of 86 before putting together a decent campaign with the Twins last year.

Despite the huge pop in his bat, the up-and-down nature of his past few seasons would make him a risky bet for a contending club. But for the Nationals, it’s a sensible fit for a number of reasons. Last month, it was reported that the club was looking to add some left-handed power to its lineup. That was a logical target with their outfield mix consisting of Lane Thomas, Stone Garrett, Joey Meneses, Victor Robles, Jacob Young and Alex Call, all of whom hit from the right side.

Beyond that, the club isn’t likely to be in contention this year, having been aggressively rebuilding in recent seasons. Last offseason, they gave modest one-year deals to bounceback candidates like Corey Dickerson, Dominic Smith and Jeimer Candelario. The first two of those didn’t work out but Candelario played well enough to be flipped to the Cubs for a couple of prospects.

The Nats can insert Gallo into the middle of their lineup and hope that he is producing enough to follow a similar trajectory to Candelario last year. If he is having another rough campaign like he did in 2022, he can simply be released like Dickerson was.

The fit also makes sense with the prospects in the system. Outfielders James Wood and Dylan Crews are two of the most highly-rated prospects in the league, and each could plausibly be nearing a major league debut. Wood spent most of last year in Double-A and will likely begin the upcoming season in Triple-A. Crews was just drafted last summer but managed to join Wood in Double-A by the end of the year. Robert Hassell isn’t as highly rated as those two but is another notable outfield prospect who finished last year at Double-A.

With those prospects potentially pushing for major league at-bats by the summer, Gallo can be seen as a placeholder. If he is mashing, he can be traded for prospects. If not, he can be released. In either case, he would yield second half playing time to someone in that group. If each of the prospects are struggling and aren’t justifying a promotion, perhaps Gallo could stay in Washington through the end of the year, as Smith did in 2023.

Gallo is also considered a solid defender, which is a plus. His outfield glovework has led to career tallies of 42 Defensive Runs Saved, four Outs Above Average and a grade of 15.0 from Ultimate Zone Rating. His work at first base isn’t graded as strongly, but he’s passable there as well, with over 1,000 career innings at that spot. Meneses is currently slated to get the bulk of the playing time at first base but the club doesn’t have a strict designated hitter, giving them some ability to rotate players around based on health and matchups.

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