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Rangers Sign David Robertson

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The Rangers announced the signing of reliever David Robertson to a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2025. The right-hander, who is self-represented, is reportedly guaranteed $11.5MM. He’ll make just $5MM in 2024 and is guaranteed the $1.5MM buyout on the option, which is valued at $7MM. The final $5MM is deferred, with $1MM paid annually between 2027-31.

Robertson split the 2023 campaign between a pair of NL East clubs. He signed a one-year, $10MM pact with the Mets. Initially tabbed as a setup man, he was pushed into the ninth inning by the Edwin Díaz injury. Robertson’s time in Queens ended up briefer than he or the team envisioned because the club quickly fell out of contention. That wasn’t any fault of his, as Robertson had an excellent 40-game run as a Met.

He tossed 44 innings with a 2.05 ERA, striking out nearly 28% of opposing hitters. For a second straight summer, Robertson was one of the better rental relievers at the deadline. New York flipped him to the Marlins for a pair of low minors prospects (Marco Vargas and Ronald Hernandez).

While Miami surprisingly stayed in contention and secured a Wild Card berth, Robertson wasn’t immediately effective. He had a tough first month in South Florida, allowing 13 runs (10 earned) with six walks and 10 strikeouts over 10 innings in August. Miami took him out of the closer’s role towards the end of that month. Robertson responded with a much better September, striking out 19 while allowing only two runs over his final 10 1/3 frames.

Despite the blip early in the second half, the former All-Star had another productive year. He finished the season with a 3.03 earned run average through 65 1/3 innings. Robertson fanned an above-average 29% of batters faced against a manageable 9.3% walk rate. He missed bats on a solid 12.6% of his overall offerings.

The Rangers have made no secret of their desire to add to the bullpen. Texas had been among the perceived frontrunners for Héctor Neris, arguably the top unsigned relief pitcher. They were also linked to Ryan Brasier a couple weeks ago. Robertson, who turns 39 in April, is available on a one-year pact. Neris and Brasier each have a shot at two years, with Neris likely to top the overall guarantee that Robertson secured.

Robertson is the second free agent bullpen acquisition of the offseason for GM Chris Young and his front office. The Rangers inked Kirby Yates to a $4.5MM deal during the Winter Meetings. Texas lost a trio of bullpen arms to free agency. Aroldis Chapman, Will Smith and Chris Stratton have all landed elsewhere. That left the relief group as the shakiest part of the defending champions’ roster. Robertson and Yates join Josh Sborz as bridge options to closer José Leclerc. Texas could still stand to add a left-hander after Brock Burke turned in a middling 2023 season.

Roster Resource projected their 2024 payroll around $210MM before the Robertson signing. He’ll push that to roughly $215MM. More importantly, the deal moves them into luxury tax territory. Texas was at roughly $231MM in CBT obligations before this signing. While the deferrals marginally reduce the contract’s net present value, the contract’s tax hit for next season is much closer to the $11.5MM overall guarantee than it is to next year’s $5MM salary.

Their CBT number jumps past the $240MM mark, pushing above the $237MM base threshold. Texas surpassed the CBT threshold last season, so they’ll pay escalating penalties for a second consecutive year of payments. The Rangers are taxed at a 32% rate on spending between $237MM and $257MM.

The tax for the Robertson signing is fairly modest. It’ll land in the $2MM range. The more significant impact could be on future tax obligations incurred on any further acquisitions. They’ve had a fairly quiet offseason amidst uncertainty about their broadcasting deal with Diamond Sports Group, but they’re bracing for another showdown with the Astros at the top of the AL West.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the Rangers had interest in Robertson. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the Rangers and Robertson had agreed to a one-year deal in the $11-12MM range. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand was first to report the $11.5MM guarantee, the mutual option, and the salary breakdown.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Brewers Sign Rhys Hoskins

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January 26: The Associated Press relays the full contract breakdown. Hoskins will make $12MM this year and will be slated for a salary of $18MM in 2025. If he decides to opt out after 2024, he will get a $4MM buyout. The mutual option for 2026 is valued at $18MM and there’s a $4MM buyout on that as well.

January 23: The Brewers announced they have signed free agent first baseman Rhys Hoskins to a two-year deal with an opt-out after 2024 and a mutual option for 2026. It is reportedly a $34MM guarantee for the client of the Boras Corporation.

Hoskins takes a modified pillow contract after missing the entire 2023 season. At the tail end of Spring Training, he tore the ACL in his left knee while retreating to the outfield grass to field a chopper. While he was able to take batting practice by the end of the season, he never quite made it back to the roster. Philadelphia suggested Hoskins may have been activated from the injured list had they advanced to the World Series.

With the Phils coming up a game short of the Fall Classic, the ACL tear marked an unfortunate end to a productive tenure at Citizens Bank Park. Hoskins seemed a potential candidate for the qualifying offer at the beginning of the offseason. The Phils opted against the QO, declaring they were moving Bryce Harper to first base permanently. That made clear Hoskins was headed elsewhere after nearly a decade in the organization.

The Phillies initially selected him in the fifth round of the 2014 draft. Despite the modest draft stock, he hit the ground running in pro ball. He posted huge minor league numbers, mashing his way to the big leagues in the second half of the 2017 campaign.

That excellent production on the farm presaged strong numbers against MLB pitching. Hoskins raked at a .259/.396/.618 clip with 18 home runs over his first 50 games. While he didn’t maintain that pace over any subsequent season, he has been a consistent middle-of-the-lineup presence in Philadelphia.

Hoskins hit between 27 and 34 home runs in his four full seasons between 2018-22. He was on a similar pace in the shortened season, connecting on 10 longballs in 41 games. He has paired that with a walk rate above 10% in every year of his career. That power and patience gives him a solid offensive floor, even if he hasn’t hit above .250 in any season since his rookie year.

Since 2018, Hoskins has posted a .241/.350/.483 batting line. He strikes out in roughly a quarter of his plate appearances. That’s slightly higher than the league average but hardly outlandish, particularly for a player who hits for the kind of power he does. Hoskins has destroyed left-handed pitching at a .250/.399/.522 clip in his career. His .240/.336/.482 slash versus same-handed arms isn’t quite as impressive but remains solidly above average.

The offense carries the overall profile. Hoskins doesn’t offer much as a baserunner. He has graded as a slightly below-average defender throughout his career. It’s unlikely his defense will improve as he’s into his 30s and working back from a significant knee injury.

That’s fine for the Brewers, who needed an offensive upgrade. Milwaukee ranked 17th in runs last season, a subpar figure for a team that plays its home games at hitter-friendly American Family Field. By measure of wRC+, which adjusts for park, Milwaukee ranked 24th in overall hitting production. That was the worst of any playoff team.

First base was particularly problematic. Milwaukee received a dismal .231/.292/.389 showing from the bat-first position. That led the Brew Crew to non-tender Rowdy Tellez. Milwaukee acquired Carlos Santana at the deadline to stabilize first base for the stretch run. The Brewers have remained in contact with Santana this winter, but they’ll instead jump on the opportunity for a more significant lineup upgrade.

The contract aligns with MLBTR’s prediction of two years and $36MM. A few priority rebound targets have landed a two-year guarantee with an opt-out in recent offseasons. That’s appealing for the player, who locks in more security than they’d have received on a straight one-year pact while still allowing them to get back to free agency after one season.

Hoskins’ deal nearly matches the two-year, $36MM pact which Michael Conforto signed with the Giants last winter after missing the ’22 season rehabbing from shoulder surgery. Players like Josh Bell (two years, $33MM) and Lucas Giolito (two years, $38.5MM) have signed similar pacts after terrible finishes to their respective platform seasons. This contract structure isn’t attainable for every bounceback candidate, but it’s one that higher-ceiling free agents of that ilk are increasingly able to secure.

The specific salary structure hasn’t been reported. If the deal guarantees Hoskins $17MM in each season, it’d push Milwaukee’s payroll projection around $122MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. That’s marginally above last year’s $119MM Opening Day mark. Milwaukee’s payroll slate remains manageable even with Hoskins joining Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames (each of whom will make more than $12MM in their final arbitration seasons) on the books.

If Hoskins picks up where he left off before the injury, he’d likely join Burnes and Adames on next year’s free agent market. As with Burnes and Adames, Hoskins would be a candidate for a qualifying offer if he exercises the opt-out. He remains eligible for the QO since Philadelphia opted against the offer this winter. Milwaukee doesn’t have to forfeit any draft picks to add him.

Pete Alonso, Paul Goldschmidt and Christian Walker could all join Hoskins in an interesting first base class next winter. The remaining options for teams this offseason isn’t as robust. Beyond outfielder/first baseman Cody Bellinger, the top first basemen still unsigned are Brandon Belt, Santana, Garrett Cooper and Joey Votto.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the two parties were closing in on a two-year, $34MM deal with an opt-out next winter (X link). Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported that they’d finalized the agreement.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Marlins, Trey Mancini Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Marlins have agreed to a minor league contract with free agent first baseman/outfielder Trey Mancini, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Mancini, who’s represented by Frontline, will be in big league camp as a non-roster invitee this spring.

Mancini is still technically playing under the two-year, $14MM deal he signed with the Cubs last offseason, so the Marlins will only owe Mancini the prorated league minimum for any time he spends on the active roster. Chicago released Mancini after the trade deadline. The Reds added him on a minor league deal later that month but didn’t call him to the Majors before cutting him loose themselves.

As one would expect for a player who was twice released the prior season, the 2023 campaign was not a good one for Mancini. The longtime Orioles slugger appeared in 79 games with the Cubs after signing that contract but scuffled at the plate throughout his Wrigley tenure, batting just .234/.299/.336 with four home runs and a career-worst 29.7% strikeout rate.

Mancini’s struggles date all the way back to the 2022 All-Star break, however. He was enjoying yet another productive season in Baltimore, hitting .285/.359/.429 through his first 351 trips to the plate, but Mancini scuffled following the Midsummer Classic and never rebounded following a trade to Houston, where he batted .176/.258/.364 in 51 games while receiving erratic playing time. Since that year’s All-Star break, Mancini has 499 plate appearances with only a .204/.280/.335 batting line to show for it.

Of course, at his best, Mancini rates anywhere from “clearly above average” to “bona fide heart-of-the-order presence.” His peak offensive performance came during 2019’s juiced ball season, when he hit .291/.364/.535 with a career-high 35 long balls. Even if that peak performance can be written off as anomalous in nature, Mancini entered the 2023 campaign as a lifetime .265/.330/.457 hitter who’d typically walk around 9% of the time against a strikeout rate that routinely sat between 21-23%. He’s not considered a strong defender in the outfield corners but can play a solid first base.

Beyond his on-field production over a long stint in Baltimore, Mancini became one of the easiest players to cheer on throughout all of MLB. Heading into the 2020 season, a then-28-year-old Mancini stunningly announced that he’d been diagnosed with Stage 3 colon cancer. He underwent surgery to remove a malignant tumor and then embarked on a six-week regimen of chemotherapy. Mancini eventually received a clean bill of health, returned in 2021 and was named the American League Comeback Player of the Year after swatting 21 homers and 33 doubles while batting .255/.326/.436 in 147 games.

With the Marlins, Mancini will compete for a bench spot and perhaps for time at designated hitter. The Fish currently have Josh Bell at first base, with Bryan De La Cruz and Jesus Sanchez likely ticketed for corner outfield work. Struggling veteran Avisail Garcia remains with the club due primarily to his contract status — two years, $29MM remaining — but Mancini could challenge him for a similar role as a righty-swinging option at DH and in the outfield corners. Garcia has batted just .215/.260/.316 since signing a four-year, $53MM contract prior to the 2022 season.

With catcher Christian Bethancourt and utilityman Vidal Brujan both out of minor league options, the Marlins effectively have two bench spots up for grabs. Mancini will compete with outfielder Peyton Burdick and infielders Xavier Edwards, Jordan Groshans and Jacob Amaya for one of those two spots. A third roster spot could conceivably open if the new-look Marlins front office opts to move on from Garcia this spring.

Angels To Sign Matt Moore

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The Angels are in agreement with reliever Matt Moore on a $9MM contract, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (X link). Moore, a client of Apex Baseball, will sign with the Halos for a second straight offseason. He inked a one-year, $7.55MM deal with the Angels last winter.

The first run in Anaheim was a good one for the now 34-year-old Moore, who’s enjoying a nice second act of his career since moving to the bullpen. In 44 innings with the Angels during the 2023 season, the veteran southpaw notched an excellent 2.66 earned run average. Moore logged a strong 28% strikeout rate against a lower-than-average 6.9% walk rate.

The Halos wound up waiving Moore in August, but not due to his performance. Rather, the Angels made a last-ditch effort to get under the luxury tax threshold with a mass waiver purge just weeks after an aggressive, win-now trade deadline. Moore, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Hunter Renfroe, Randal Grichuk, Dominic Leone and Tyler Anderson all wound up on waivers in hopes that another club would take their contracts (not all were claimed).

Moore was quickly snapped up by the Guardians as they made their own last-minute push, claiming Giolito in addition to Moore. His stint with Cleveland only lasted 4 2/3 innings, as the Guards waived Moore themselves to save some cash after they, too, fell out of postseason contention. The Marlins scooped Moore up and enjoyed four shutout innings for him down the stretch.

Overall, Moore finished out a bizarre 2023 season with a 2.56 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate and vastly improved 6.9% walk rate in 52 2/3 innings between the three teams. That marked Moore’s second consecutive year of productive pitching following a move to the bullpen. He turned in a 1.95 ERA for the Rangers in 2022 after signing a minor league deal. When combining the two seasons, Moore touts a 2.20 ERA with five saves, 36 holds, a 27.4% strikeout rate and 10.3% walk rate in 126 2/3 innings.

It’s a strong second act for the southpaw, who’d struggled as a starter for the few seasons preceding his bullpen move. It has clearly impressed Halos GM Perry Minasian and his staff, who have added him on a notable one-year pact in consecutive years. That’s in line with a broad willingness to attack the relief corps on free agency.

Los Angeles has signed five relievers this winter. Their first three acquisitions — Luis Garcia, Adam Kolarek and Adam Cimber — were fairly modest one-year deals. In recent days, they’ve been more aggressive. The Angels finalized a three-year, $33MM pact with Robert Stephenson this afternoon. Moore adds a lefty option to a relief group that otherwise figures to lean heavily on righties Carlos Estevez, Stephenson, Garcia, Ben Joyce and Jose Soriano.

The Angels are now up to roughly $172MM in payroll commitments for the upcoming season, as calculated by Roster Resource. That’s still well shy of last year’s $212MM Opening Day mark. Minasian and his staff very likely aren’t finished. They’ve been tied to various possibilities in both the lineup and the starting rotation. There’s still opportunity for the Angels to continue adding in the next few weeks.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Adrián Beltré, Joe Mauer, Todd Helton Elected To Baseball Hall Of Fame

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The Hall of Fame announced this evening that Adrián Beltré, Joe Mauer and Todd Helton have been elected by the Baseball Writers Association of America. They will be elected alongside Jim Leyland, who was selected by the Era Committee last month.

Beltré received 95.1% of the vote, Helton 79.7% and Mauer 76.1%. Billy Wagner got 73.8%, just shy of the 75% threshold. This was his ninth year on the ballot, meaning next year will be his last. Gary Sheffield received 63.9% of the vote in his 10th year on the ballot and will therefore not be present on next year’s. The full results can be found at this link from the BBWAA.

Beltré was an international signing of the Dodgers out of the Dominican Republic. He debuted in the majors in 1998 when still just 19 years old. Though it took him some time to realize his full potential, he would eventually go on to have an incredible career in just about every respect.

He eventually played in parts of 21 seasons with the Dodgers, Mariners, Red Sox and Rangers. In 2,933 career games, he had 3,166 hits, which included 636 doubles, 38 triples and 477 home runs. He was also considered to be an excellent third baseman, tallying 200 Defensive Runs Saved even though that metric didn’t exist for the first few years of his career. He also stole 121 bases over the years.

Due to the combination of his offense, defense and longevity, he produced 83.8 wins above replacement in eyes of FanGraphs while Baseball Reference has him a 93.5. He was on four All-Star teams, won five Gold Glove awards and four Silver Slugger Awards. This was his first year on the ballot.

Mauer’s career exploits were many, but there was also a poetic connective tissue in that he was so specifically tied to one franchise. Born and raised in Saint Paul, Minnesota, he entered the 2001 Major League Baseball draft and the Twins used the first overall pick to select him.

He would go on to play his entire career for the Twins, which lasted from his 2004 debut through the 2018 season. He played in 1,858 games, with injuries reducing his playing time and eventually moving him from catcher to first base. But he still managed to notch 2,123 hits and finish his career with a .306 batting average.

Of the seven batting titles won by catchers, Mauer has three of them. That included his 2009 season, wherein he hit .365 and won Most Valuable Player in the American League. He finished his career with 53 fWAR and 55.2 bWAR. He was selected to six All-Star teams, won three Gold Glove awards and five Silver Slugger Awards. This was his first year on the ballot.

Todd Helton

Helton also spent his entire career with one organization, having been drafted eighth overall by the Rockies in 1995. He would make his major league debut in 1997 and stick with the Rockies through 2013.

In his 2,247 games, he tallied 2,519 hits, including 1,521 doubles and 369 home runs. In 2000, he hit .372 with 40 home runs, then followed that up by hitting 49 homers with a .336 batting average the year after. He made five All-Star teams, won three Gold Glove awards and five Silver Sluggers. He has career tallies of 54.9 fWAR and 61.8 bWAR. This was his sixth year on the ballot.

Per the BBWAA, this was the 10th time they elected three players, the last being when Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines and Iván Rodríguez were elected in 2017.

Pirates To Sign Aroldis Chapman

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The Pirates are in agreement with Aroldis Chapman, as first reported by Francys Romero (X link). It’s a one-year, $10.5MM guarantee, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (on X). Chapman is a Wasserman client. The deal is pending a physical; Pittsburgh will need to make a corresponding 40-man roster move once the contract is finalized.

Chapman, who turns 36 next month, lands a one-year free agent deal for the second straight offseason. Limited to a fairly modest $3.75MM guarantee from the Royals a year ago, he lands a raise on the heels of an impressive season that culminated in his second World Series win. Chapman turned in a 3.09 ERA over 58 1/3 innings, striking out a laughable 41.4% of opposing hitters. Among relievers with 50+ innings, only Orioles star closer Félix Bautista punched hitters out more frequently.

The lefty split his year between two teams. He turned in dominant results for three months in Kansas City. Over 29 2/3 frames with the Royals, he pitched to a 2.45 ERA with a 43.4% strikeout rate. That production and his affordable salary made Chapman arguably the top rental reliever on the trade market. K.C. moved early, sending him to the Rangers in a one-for-one deal for former first-round pick Cole Ragans at the end of June.

It’s the kind of result that rebuilding teams envision when signing a veteran to a one-year deal. Ragans had an excellent 12-start run to close the year and looks like a potential mid-rotation or better pitcher whom Kansas City controls for five more seasons. Texas knew they were getting a short-term acquisition, but Chapman provided them a much needed high-leverage bullpen arm.

Over 29 regular season innings in Arlington, he posted a 3.72 ERA while fanning nearly 40% of batters faced. Chapman saved four games and picked up six holds in front of nominal closer José Leclerc. He continued to pitch in meaningful games during the Rangers’ run to the first title in franchise history. He picked up six more holds in nine playoff appearances, totaling eight innings of two-run ball. That came with only six strikeouts and five walks, but Chapman wiggled out of trouble more often than not in October.

It was frequently an adventure when Chapman took the mound. While he has never had great command, his control has reached particularly worrisome levels over the last three years. He walked 14.5% of batters faced last year, the fifth-highest rate among pitchers to log at least 50 innings. That was nevertheless the southpaw’s lowest walk percentage since 2020.

While Chapman is going to hand out his share of free baserunners, he remains one of the sport’s toughest pitchers to hit when he’s around the strike zone. His four-seam fastball averaged 99 MPH last year, while his sinker sat above 101 MPH. That’s above the 97.5 MPH he averaged on the four-seam during his final season with the Yankees. His slider, which had averaged between 85-86 MPH for the previous few years, jumped to 88.1 MPH. That high-octane arsenal translated to plenty of whiffs. Only Robert Stephenson and Bautista had a lower opponents’ contact rate. Hitters put the bat on the ball on only three-fifths of their swings against Chapman.

The Bucs will live with the free passes to add that kind of swing-and-miss potential to the back of their bullpen. David Bednar is entrenched in the ninth inning. Chapman will work in a setup capacity with the ability to step into the ninth should Bednar suffer an injury. He joins Ryan Borucki as left-handed bullpen options for skipper Derek Shelton. Colin Holderman projects as Pittsburgh’s top righty setup arm.

MLBTR predicted Chapman to receive a two-year, $24MM pact. He’ll instead settle for one season. The $10.5MM salary makes him the highest-paid player on the Pittsburgh roster this year (after accounting for cash considerations from the Mariners and Braves paying down Marco Gonzales’ $12MM deal). He’s the fourth player to ink a one-year free agent deal with the Pirates this winter, joining Martín Pérez, Andrew McCutchen and Rowdy Tellez.

The deal brings Pittsburgh’s projected player payroll around $79MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. The low-payroll club opened last season with roughly $73MM in commitments, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They’re now set to raise spending this year, as GM Ben Cherington suggested at the beginning of the offseason, although it remains to be seen if the front office has any more room at its disposal. Pittsburgh could still seek rotation help and potentially a veteran option at second base, where they have a handful of young players (e.g. Liover Peguero, Nick Gonzales, Ji Hwan Bae) set to compete for at-bats.

Owner Bob Nutting suggested over the weekend he anticipated the team staying in the playoff mix for the entire season. Pittsburgh hasn’t reached the postseason since 2015 and hasn’t advanced to the Division Series in a decade. If that doesn’t materialize, Chapman could find himself on the rental trade market for a second straight summer.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Collin McHugh Announces Retirement

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Veteran right-hander Collin McHugh announced his retirement from the game Monday (Instagram link). The 36-year-old pitched in parts of 11 MLB seasons from 2012-23 and accrued more than nine years of big league service along the way.

“I was never the best player on any team I played for,” McHugh wrote in his announcement. “Including my 7th grade church league team, on which I played catcher. I never did travel baseball. I went to a small private high school and a small NAIA college. I got drafted in the 18th round by the Mets, most likely as a favor to my college coach. I threw 90 mph. I was NEVER supposed to make it out of A ball. 16 years later, it’s finally time for me to hang ‘em up. And as cringey as it might sound, I’m proud of myself. Proud that I didn’t give up. Proud of the clubhouses I’ve been lucky enough to have a locker in. Proud to be a member of the MLBPA alongside this generation of amazing ballplayers. To the Mets, Rockies, Astros, Red Sox, Rays, and my hometown Braves: Thanks for taking a chance on a kid like me. I’ll never forget it. And don’t worry, I’m pretty sure I’ll be around the game forever. So if we see each other at a park near you, come say hey!”

McHugh, indeed, was never regarded as a top prospect. He debuted with the 2012 Mets and was tagged for a 7.59 ERA in 21 1/3 frames as a rookie. His struggles in Queens continued into the following season, and McHugh was traded to the Rockies in exchange for outfielder Eric Young Jr., who’d been designated for assignment in Colorado. Things didn’t pan out at Coors Field either; McHugh was torched for 21 runs in 19 innings as a Rockie.

Despite the lack of success, the Astros both tried to trade for McHugh prior to his Rockies acquisition and then later claimed him off waivers when Colorado removed him from its 40-man roster. That interest and subsequent acquisition came back in 2013, prior to the public advent of a great deal of pitching data that is now commonplace. At the time, the high spin rate on McHugh’s curveball gave the Astros confidence that with some tweaks to his repertoire and general approach to hitters on the mound, that could be a plus breaking pitch that fueled a breakout for the little-known righty.

Houston’s interest proved prescient. In 2014, McHugh stepped into the Astros’ rotation and made 25 starts while working to an excellent 2.74 ERA over 154 2/3 frames. He fanned just over a quarter of his opponents against a tidy 6.6% walk rate while keeping the ball on the ground at a roughly average clip. A year later, McHugh followed up with a career-high 203 2/3 innings, pitching to a 3.89 ERA in a full slate of 32 trips to the hill.

McHugh finished fourth in AL Rookie of the Year voting during that 2014 breakout and was eighth in Cy Young voting during his followup effort. He made another 33 starts for Houston during the 2016 season before sustaining a shoulder injury that limited him to 12 starts of 3.55 ERA ball in 2017. McHugh returned as a reliever in 2018 and went from a key member of the Houston rotation to a similarly important reliever; he fired 72 1/3 innings of 1.99 ERA ball in 2018 before struggling to more pedestrian results in a 2019 campaign split between the rotation and bullpen.

Overall, McHugh went from a nondescript late-round pick to a clear-cut big leaguer during his time in Houston. He pitched 753 1/3 innings of 3.63 ERA ball there before hitting free agency and taking a one-year deal with the Red Sox that was wiped out by injury and the pandemic-shortened schedule. McHugh landed with the Rays in 2021 and bounced back in a major way: a 1.55 ERA in 64 innings. That prompted a two-year deal with the Braves — a homecoming for a pitcher who went to high school in Lilburn and college in Mount Berry — where McHugh went on to throw another 128 innings of 3.38 ERA ball.

All told, McHugh’s career will draw to a close with a 71-47 record, 46 holds, one save and a 3.72 ERA in 992 2/3 innings at the MLB level. He struck out 967 hitters against 280 walks and added another 27 innings of 4.00 ERA performance in the postseason. McHugh won a World Series ring with the controversial 2017 Astros club that is now infamous for its sign-stealing setup. FanGraphs valued McHugh’s career at nearly 16 wins above replacement, while Baseball-Reference pegged him at 12.4 WAR in a career that netted him just under $27MM in earnings. Few 18th-round signees can boast anything close to that type of success; McHugh and Mike Cameron stand as two of the best ever selected in that round. McHugh’s comment about being “around the game forever” seems to leave the door open for some kind of role with a team in the future. Best wishes to the righty on whatever the next step may be.

Angels Sign Robert Stephenson To Three-Year Contract

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The Angels announced the signing of reliever Robert Stephenson to a three-year contract on Tuesday afternoon. Stephenson, a client of Apex Baseball, is reportedly guaranteed $33MM. There’s also a conditional team option for the 2027 campaign based on Stephenson’s elbow health. If the pitcher suffers an elbow ligament injury that causes him to miss 130 consecutive days, the Halos would have a $2.5MM option on his services for a fourth season. He will otherwise make $11MM annually over the next three years.

Stephenson, 31 next month, was the top remaining free agent reliever once Josh Hader came off the board. Within a couple hours of Hader agreeing to a five-year, $95MM pact with the Astros, Stephenson decided to join him in the AL West.

A three-year guarantee for Stephenson would have seemed outlandish six months ago. Until last summer, he looked like a volatile middle innings arm. A former first-round pick and highly-regarded prospect with the Reds, Stephenson struggled early in his career as a starter. He moved to relief full-time in 2019 and had an up-and-down trajectory.

The 6’3″ righty turned in a sub-4.00 ERA in 2019 and ’21 before a rough 2022 campaign. He split the year between the Rockies and Pirates, allowing a 5.43 ERA through 58 innings. Stephenson opened last season with 14 innings of nine-run ball in Pittsburgh.

An early June trade sending him to the Rays for infielder Alika Williams didn’t result in a ton of fanfare. It wound up being one of the more adept rental acquisitions of the summer, though, one that completely changed his fortunes in free agency.

Stephenson was arguably the most dominant pitcher in the majors for the season’s final four months. During his time in Tampa Bay, he worked to a 2.35 ERA across 38 1/3 innings. He punched out a laughable 42.9% of hitters while walking fewer than 6% of batters faced. Among relievers with 30+ innings after June 1, only Félix Bautista, Aroldis Chapman and Pete Fairbanks punched hitters out at a higher rate.

Even that doesn’t capture how overpowering he was on a pitch-for-pitch basis. Opponents whiffed more often than they made contact. Hitters put the bat on the ball on 49.3% of their swings against Stephenson in Tampa Bay. That wasn’t simply the best mark in MLB. It was almost 10 percentage points lower than anyone else over that stretch. Chapman, against whom batters made contact on 59% of their swings, was second.

It’s not hard to pinpoint a reason for that excellence. Before he went to Tampa Bay, he paired a near-97 MPH four-seam fastball with a mid-80s slider. With the Rays, he leaned mostly on an upper-80s breaking ball that Statcast classifies as a cutter. Opponents couldn’t do anything with that pitch. They swung through it nearly three-fifths of the time and hit .101 in 79 at-bats. By the season’s final month, he was using the pitch at a near-75% clip.

Whether Stephenson adopted the cutter from scratch or just found a way to add a couple ticks of velocity to his former slider isn’t clear. In any event, it’s a pitch he’ll surely lean on frequently in Orange County. The Angels can’t expect him to maintain quite the level he showed in Tampa Bay — that’d be a tough ask for anyone — but they’re surely anticipating him stepping in as a quality high-leverage arm.

That’s not without risk. Stellar as Stephenson’s finish was, his time in Tampa Bay comprised fewer than 40 innings. From his 2019 bullpen transfer through his stint in Pittsburgh, he tallied a 4.53 ERA in 192 2/3 frames between three teams. Some of that can be attributed to playing in hitter-friendly home venues in Cincinnati and Colorado, but he clearly wouldn’t have been a candidate for a three-year pact had he not finished the way he did. His 26.9% strikeout rate over those four-plus seasons was a solid but hardly elite number.

It’s the first significant acquisition of the offseason for the Halos. While Stephenson is their fourth bullpen pickup overall, the other three signings were modest one-year investments. Luis García landed a $4.75MM deal, while Adam Cimber inked a $1.65MM pact after being non-tendered by Toronto. Adam Kolarek, who signed for $900K, was already outrighted off the 40-man roster.

Stephenson will work in the late innings. He doesn’t have any closing experience, so the Halos could elect to leave last year’s key bullpen pickup, Carlos Estévez, in the ninth inning. The pair of righties should take the bulk of the most important work late in games. García and Cimber will occupy middle relief roles, while Ben Joyce and José Soriano could hold setup jobs.

It’s a high-octane group built around some of the hardest throwers in the sport. Joyce averaged nearly 101 MPH on his heater and famously was clocked as high as 105 MPH in college. Estévez and García sit north of 97 MPH on average. Soriano and Stephenson have upper 90s velocity in their back pocket as well, even if both lean more frequently on their breaking stuff.

New manager Ron Washington should appreciate the stable of power arsenals at his disposal, although the Halos likely need to add another left-hander to the mix. That could put the finishing touch on the bullpen, yet there’s still plenty of work for GM Perry Minasian and his front office.

The Halos haven’t made any acquisitions on the offensive side to compensate for Shohei Ohtani’s departure. That’s also true in the rotation. They’ve looked for ways to add a top-end starter. In addition to scouring the trade market, the Halos have reportedly shown interest in defending NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell.

There should still be plenty of payroll room at their disposal. Roster Resource projected the 2024 player payroll around $153MM before the Stephenson signing. Evenly distributing his salaries pushes that around $164MM. The Halos opened last season with a payroll at roughly $212MM, as calculated by Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They’ll still be almost $50MM shy of that mark. They’re also nowhere near next year’s $237MM base luxury tax threshold. Stephenson’s $11MM average annual value will push the Angels’ projected CBT number to roughly $179MM.

The contract comes in just below MLBTR’s prediction of four years and $36MM. It’s in line with the going rate for high-leverage relievers with some inconsistency in their career track record, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. Stephenson’s deal generally aligns with those signed by Taylor Rogers (three years, $33MM), Rafael Montero (three years, $34.5MM), Joe Jiménez (three years, $26.5MM), former Angel Reynaldo López (three years, $30MM) and Jordan Hicks (four years, $44MM) over the last two offseasons.

@Jolly_Olive first reported the Angels and Stephenson had agreed to a three-year deal exceeding $30MM with a 2027 option. Sam Blum of the Athletic reported the $33MM guarantee. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the $2.5MM conditional option based on Stephenson’s arm health. The Associated Press reported the 130-inning provision and the evenly distributed salaries.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Astros Sign Josh Hader To Five-Year Contract

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The Astros announced they have signed left-hander Josh Hader. It is reportedly a five-year, $95MM contract. The deal has no deferrals, which makes it the largest contract ever given to a relief pitcher in terms of present-day value. Edwin Díaz signed a $102MM deal with the Mets prior to last season, setting a new benchmark for a reliever, but there was some deferred money that dropped the present-day value and competitive balance tax calculation to around $93MM.

Josh Hader | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY SportsHader, a CAA Sports client, will earn $19MM annually through the 2028 season. The southpaw can also collect an additional $1MM bonus for winning the Reliever of the Year Award, an honor he has already received three times in his career. The deal contains a full no-trade clause and no options, team or player alike.

On Thursday, Rome and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the Astros were “making a push” to sign the five-time All-Star. It came as little surprise that GM Dana Brown was looking to supplement a bullpen that lost several key players to free agency, namely Héctor Neris, Phil Maton, and Ryne Stanek. In addition, 2023 trade deadline acquisition Kendall Graveman is likely to miss the entire 2024 season after undergoing shoulder surgery. That said, Brown recently downplayed his desire to add another reliever. After the news broke of Graveman’s surgery, the GM told Brian McTaggart of MLB.com that the Astros were “still in the market for relievers,” but also said, “We got some internal candidates that we really feel good about.” In a similar vein, he told Rome, “We just may have to get one more body or one of our guys internally will step up.”

On top of that, Brown told reporters during the GM Meetings in November that he didn’t have “a ton” of payroll flexibility to work with. Thus, Astros fans began to brace themselves for a slow offseason, and rumors even began to emerge that the team could trade All-Stars Alex Bregman and Framber Valdez

In hindsight, the executive was clearly keeping his cards close to his chest. After all, signing the top reliever on the market to a record-breaking contract is just about the complete opposite of tightening the purse strings and hoping an internal candidate steps up. Indeed, Hader’s salary brings the Astros over the first luxury tax threshold and dangerously close to the second; according to Roster Resource, their CBT payroll sits at $254.6MM, less than $3MM away from the $257MM threshold. Houston has never paid the luxury tax before, although the team crossed the threshold in 2020 when there were no penalties for doing so.

Because Hader rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres, the Astros will lose their second-highest pick in the upcoming draft, as well as $500,000 in international bonus pool money. However, the extra penalties they could face as Competitive Balance Tax payors won’t kick in until next offseason; if the Astros remain over the CBT threshold throughout 2024 and sign another QO free agent next winter, they will forfeit their second- and fifth-highest draft picks, as well as $1 million in international bonus pool money.

The Astros don’t usually sign free agents with qualifying offers attached to them, just as they don’t usually exceed the CBT threshold. To that end, they don’t often sign $95MM deals. As Rome points out on X, this is the largest free agent contract the club has signed in Jim Crane’s 12-year tenure as owner of the Astros. Evidently, then, Crane and Brown have high hopes for what Hader can bring to the bullpen – and for good reason. The left-hander has long been one of the top relievers in the game. Across seven MLB seasons with the Brewers and Padres, he boasts a 2.50 ERA, 2.27 SIERA, and 165 saves in 190 chances. Since his debut in 2017, no pitcher (min. 5 IP) has struck out batters at a higher rate.

Hader, who turns 30 this April, looked as dominant as ever in 2023, ranking second among qualified NL relievers with a 1.28 ERA. Meanwhile, his Statcast expected ERA ranked third in all of baseball. What’s more, he recorded 33 saves in 61 games, crossing the 30-save threshold for the fourth time in his career. With a hard sinker and mystifying slider, he recorded 85 strikeouts in 56 1/3 innings of work.

The presumptive closer will join right-handers Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu at the back of what could be the scariest bullpen in the American League. The Astros ranked fourth in the AL in bullpen ERA last season and first from the trade deadline through the end of the year. Although Houston has parted ways with several key contributors this winter, adding Hader goes a long way toward replenishing what was lost. The three departing relievers, plus Graveman, provided the Astros with 1.4 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) last season, per FanGraphs. Hader alone was worth 1.7 WAR in 2023 and has averaged 1.94 WAR per 60 games throughout his career. While he cannot cover the workload of four separate pitchers all on his own, he should provide his team with 50-60 valuable innings in the most high-leverage spots. The Astros could still use some more depth to fill out the bullpen, but their back-end trio of Hader, Pressly, and Abreu might be the best one-two-three punch in the game.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the two sides were in agreement on a five-year, $95MM deal with no deferrals. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first relayed the even $19MM salaries, no-trade clause and award bonus. Joel Sherman of The New York Post relayed the $1MM value of that bonus. Chandler Rome of The Athletic reported the lack of options or opt-outs.

Cardinals Sign Matt Carpenter To One-Year Deal

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The Cardinals announced that they have signed Matt Carpenter to a one-year deal. He was already under contract for 2024 but was released by Atlanta last month, meaning the Cards will only have to pay him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the roster, with that amount subtracted from what Atlanta pays. The Cards now have a full 40-man roster.

Matt Carpenter | Jeff Curry-USA TODAY SportsCarpenter, now 38, returns to the organization where he spent the majority of his career and had his best years. Drafted by the Cardinals in 2009, he was with the big league club from 2011 to 2021. He played in 1,329 games in that time, hitting 155 home runs while slashing .262/.368/.449 for a wRC+ of 125. He made three All-Star teams in that time and won a Silver Slugger award.

His production tailed off in the final three of those seasons, including a batting line of just .169/.305/.275 in 2021. The Cards declined a $18.5MM club option for 2022, taking the $2MM buyout instead. As a free agent, he made a concerted effort to revamp his swing but still had to settle for a minor league deal with the Rangers that winter. He reported to their Triple-A club and showcased his new swing with tremendous success, slashing .275/.379/.613 in 21 games there.

Despite that excellent showing, the Rangers released him and Carpenter was able to secure a big league deal with the Yankees. For a short amount of time, he was arguably the hottest hitter on the planet. In 47 games in pinstripes, he hit 15 home runs and produced a monster line of .305/.412/.727. Unfortunately, that dazzling display was cut short when he fouled a ball off his foot and suffered a fracture in early August.

The Padres decided to bank on that brief burst, giving Carpenter a two-year, $12MM deal going into 2023, with an opt-out after the first season. But he crashed back down to earth in a big way, hitting .176/.322/.319 last year. He clearly fell out of favor with manager Bob Melvin, getting only 30 plate appearances from late July until the end of the season. Carpenter made the easy decision to lock in $5.5MM for 2024 by exercising his player option.

Though he declined a chance to return to the open market, he would find himself back there anyway. The Padres traded him to Atlanta along with left-hander Ray Kerr, with minor league outfielder Drew Campbell going to the Padres. Atlanta tried to trade Carpenter again but gave up and released him three days later, clearly demonstrating that they only took on his contract as a means of getting Kerr.

The Cardinals will be hoping that Carpenter has another bounceback in him, presumably inserting him into their designated hitter/pinch hitter/bench bat mix. Carpenter played some third base and the outfield corners as recently as 2022 with the Yankees but was mostly a DH with the Padres last year, with 81 innings at first base his only time in the field.

The Cards don’t have a strict DH on the roster, with nine different players having received 27 or more plate appearances in that slot last year. They could opt for a similar approach in 2024. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado will have the infield corners spoken for, with Masyn Winn and Nolan Gorman perhaps up the middle. Tommy Edman, Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Walker are the likely starting outfielders while Dylan Carlson could be the fourth outfielder. Brendan Donovan figures to be in a super utility role until an injury opens up a clear path to playing time.

But there are also elements of uncertainty in that group. Goldschmidt is going into his age-36 season and will turn 37 towards the tail end. Winn isn’t a lock to hold down shortstop after he struggled in his first taste of MLB pitching, which could perhaps move Edman there. But Edman himself underwent offseason wrist surgery and is still recovering. Donovan had flexor tendon surgery late last year. Walker is a former infielder who is still considered to be a poor defender in an outfield corner.

There are many moving pieces and it’s possible that things open up in a way that leaves room for Carpenter to get back on track this year. There are at least some similarities here to the situation with Albert Pujols. He also spent his best years in St. Louis before wandering to other clubs and struggling, but he came back to the Cards in 2022 and had arguably his best performance in over a decade. Carpenter’s overall career doesn’t compare to Pujols and he’s also had some more recent signs of success, but it’s an interesting parallel nonetheless.

Ultimately, it’s a low-risk move for the Cards since Carp is essentially free and isn’t guaranteed any playing time. If his performance is similar to his 2023 work with the Padres, he can simply be released, with Atlanta remaining on the hook for his salary.

Perhaps the person with the most to lose with today’s news is Alec Burleson. He was lined up to be a lefty-swinging bench bat for the club but might now get pushed to the farm, since he still has a full slate of options. He has hit well in the minors but has slashed just .237/.295/.375 in his major league career thus far. Perhaps he will find himself taking regular at-bats in Triple-A, depending on the health and performance of the aforementioned names on the roster.

For Cardinal fans, it could be another year of nostalgia storylines involving some long-tenured players. In 2022, Pujols returned to the club for a farewell tour, with both himself and Yadier Molina retiring after that campaign. Last year, Adam Wainwright’s attempts to secure his 200th career win before walking away from the game took center stage as the club fell out of contention.

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