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Tyler Matzek To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Braves left-hander Tyler Matzek, who was left off the NLDS roster due to elbow discomfort, is undergoing Tommy John surgery today, manager Brian Snitker announced to reporters (Twitter link via Jeff Schultz of The Athletic). Given the timing of the surgery, Matzek will likely miss the entire 2023 season as well.

There’s never really a good time for a baseball player to undergo go Tommy John and then have to spend 12-18 months recovering, but the timing here is especially unfortunate for both Matzek and the team. After winning a fifth-straight NL East crown, the club just began its postseason run yesterday, leaving Matzek off the roster. Now that the prognosis is known, Matzek can be ruled out of the entire playoff run and then some.

2022 was his third season with Atlanta after a lengthy absence due to “the yips.” He pitched for the Rockies in 2014 and 2015 but then dealt with control problems so bad that he was relegated to the minors for chunks of the 2016-2019 period, including missing the 2017 season entirely and pitching in indy ball in 2018. He eventually made his way back to the majors and established himself as a useful piece of the Atlanta bullpen. From 2020 to the present, he’s thrown 135 2/3 innings with a 2.92 ERA, 38.2% ground ball rate and 27.4% strikeout rate, despite a high 13.4% walk rate.

In addition to that strong work in the regular season, Matzek has shown a knack for taking things up a notch in the playoffs. In 2020, he threw 8 2/3 innings with a 1.04 ERA and followed that up with a 1.72 mark in 15 2/3 frames last year, playing a big role in helping Atlanta grab their first World Series title since 1995. Unfortunately, he won’t get a chance to build on his track record of postseason heroics here in 2022. Without Matzek, the club will charge ahead in their attempt to repeat as champions with A.J. Minter and Dylan Lee as their only lefty relievers.

Looking ahead to next year, Matzek, who turns 32 next week, is eligible for arbitration again after earning $1.4MM here in 2022. He will be due a raise for 2023, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting his salary to come in around $1.8MM. The team could consider not tendering Matzek a contract since he likely won’t be able to contribute at all in 2023. However, if they did tender him a contract, they would still be able to control him for 2024. Since Matzek will likely miss the entire season, he wouldn’t be able to push his 2024 salary much beyond his 2023 number, if at all. Players who are free agents but about to embark on a significant absence will often sign two-year deals with the signing club aware they won’t see a return on their investment until the second half of the deal, and Matzek’s final two arb years could effectively function in that way if the Atlanta front office considers him worth the gamble.

Dodgers’ NLDS Roster Does Not Include Craig Kimbrel

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The Dodgers announced their roster for the NLDS today, with right-hander Craig Kimbrel not making the cut. Here’s who did make it…

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

The Dodgers are in the postseason for a tenth consecutive season, winning the NL West in each of those seasons except last year. However, 2022 was the most impressive of the bunch as the club went 111-51, the highest win total in franchise history. They will now face off against division rivals, squaring up against the Padres in a best-of-five series.

Kimbrel’s omission from the roster is the latest step in what has been an extremely mercurial portion of his career. From 2010 to 2018, Kimbrel was one of the most dominant relievers in the sport, pitching to a 1.91 ERA while striking out 41.6% of batters faced and racking up 333 saves.

Since then, however, it’s been a rollercoaster for the righty. He was issued a qualifying offer by the Red Sox after the 2018 season, which he declined. He lingered on the open market all the way until June, eventually signing with the Cubs once the draft had already taken place and he was no longer attached to draft pick forfeiture. After missing nearly half the season, Kimbrel struggled that year by putting up a 6.53 ERA, then struggled again the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign with a 5.28 ERA.

In the first half of 2021, he seemingly got the train back on the tracks, registering a 0.49 ERA over 36 2/3 innings, getting traded from the Cubs to the White Sox. However, the pendulum swung the other way after the trade, with Kimbrel posting a 5.09 ERA after moving across town. Nonetheless, they Sox picked up his $16MM option before trading him to the Dodgers for AJ Pollock. Kimbrel recorded 22 saves for Los Angeles but was eventually moved off the closer role in September and now seems to have dropped far enough on the bullpen chart to be excluded from their playoff plans, unless an injury opens a spot for him down the line. He has a 3.75 ERA on the season, with a 27.7% strikeout rate that’s above league average but well below any of his previous seasons.

The exclusion of Kimbrel might actually say more about the Dodger bullpen than it does about him. Overall, the club’s relievers posted a 2.87 ERA this year, second only to the Astros, though L.A.’s bullpen logged 85 2/3 more innings than Houston’s. Along with quality starting pitching, an elite offense and strong defense, it’s not hard to see how this was the best team in baseball this year.

Scott Effross To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Yankees right-hander Scott Effross will require Tommy John surgery, reports Jack Curry of the YES Network. The news is an ill-timed blow to the Yankees, who are just about to begin the ALDS and will be without a key piece of their bullpen.

Effross, 28, made his MLB debut last year, throwing 14 2/3 innings with the Cubs with a 3.68 ERA. Here in 2022, he took his game to another level, throwing 44 more frames with Chicago, registering a 2.66 ERA, 28.1% strikeout rate, 6.2% walk rate and 45.6% ground ball rate. The Yankees were impressed enough by that showing to acquire him at the deadline, sending pitching prospect Hayden Wesneski the other way.

Effross continued to be effective once coming to the Bronx, adding another 12 2/3 innings with a 2.13 ERA, earning three saves and three holds while pitching in high-leverage situations despite missing about a month with a shoulder strain. He would have been in line to be an important member of the club’s relief corps in the postseason but will now miss the remainder of the playoffs and the entirety of the 2023 season as well.

This certainly isn’t the first hit that the Yankee bullpen has taken this year, as Chad Green also required Tommy John back in May. Zack Britton was placed on the 60-day IL earlier this month due to shoulder fatigue. Michael King suffered a season-ending elbow fracture in July. Ron Marinaccio was placed on the 15-day IL a week ago and won’t be an option for the ALDS, though he could potentially return later in the postseason if the Yankees advance. In addition to all of those injury woes, Aroldis Chapman has been struggling this season and then skipped a team workout last week. Due to his truancy, the team fined him and left him off the ALDS roster. The Yanks will now have to try to navigate the remainder of the postseason with a depleted bullpen group.

Going forward, Effross will miss the entirety of his age-29 season. He has just over one year of MLB service time and won’t be arbitration eligible until after the 2024 season. The Yankees can keep him on their 60-day IL all of next season, although there’s no injured list between the end of the season and the start of Spring Training, meaning Effross will be need a roster spot from November to February.

Braves Extend Spencer Strider

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The Braves have extended yet another key member of their impressive young core, this time announcing a six-year, $75MM contract for right-hander Spencer Strider. The contract, which covers the 2023-28 seasons, also contains a $22MM club option for the 2029 season. The six-year guarantee buys out Strider’s final two pre-arbitration seasons, all three arbitration years and what would have been his first free-agent season. The 2029 club option gives the Braves control over what would’ve been Strider’s second free-agent campaign. Strider is represented by Frontline.

Spencer Strider

Strider, 24 later this month, will earn $1MM both in 2023 and 2024. He’ll be paid a $4MM salary in 2025 before jumping to $20MM in 2026 and $22MM in 2027 and 2028. The 2029 option comes with a $5MM buyout, which is factored into the guaranteed portion of the contract. If the Braves pick up that net $17MM option for the ’29 campaign, Strider will earn a total of $92MM over seven years.

Strider becomes the fourth young Braves star to be extended this season alone, joining first baseman Matt Olson (eight years, $168MM), center fielder Michael Harris II (eight years, $72MM) and star third baseman Austin Riley (ten years, $212MM). Atlanta, of course, had previously already signed outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. and second baseman Ozzie Albies to club-friendly extensions. All six of those players are now under club control through at least the 2027 season, giving the Braves a level of continuity and cost certainty that is unparalleled throughout the league.

A fourth-round gem in the extremely truncated 2020 draft (five rounds), Strider skyrocketed through the Braves’ system despite a lack of minor league games in 2020, ultimately making his Major League debut late in the 2021 season. The Clemson product cracked the Braves’ Opening Day roster in 2022, initially working multi-inning stints out of the bullpen before ascending to the starting staff, where he not only found success but emerged as a bona fide front-of-the-rotation arm.

Overall, Strider broke out with 131 2/3 innings of 2.67 ERA ball and a 38.3% strikeout rate that paced all big leaguers who pitched at least 100 innings. Command was an issue at times in the minors and early in the season, but Strider markedly scaled back on the number of free passes he yielded as the season wore on, finishing out the year with an 8.5% walk rate that was scarcely north of the league average. For someone who walked 13.5% of his opponents over the first two months of the season, the improvement was as remarkable as it was rapid; from June 10 onward, Strider walked just 6.8% of his opponents.

Strider’s dominance has positioned him as one of the two favorites for National League Rookie of the Year honors, as he and teammate Harris are widely viewed as the presumptive first- and second-place finishers in an extremely strong year for rookies (both in the NL and in MLB as a whole).

The $75MM guarantee for Strider shatters any prior precedent for pitchers with such limited experience. Prior to this deal, the five-year, $35MM contract Madison Bumgarner signed with the Giants more than a decade ago stood as the record extension for a pitcher with between one and two years of service time. (Strider is currently at 1.003 years.) This new contract not only finally topples that dated mark (in decisive fashion), it also surpasses the established extension records for pitchers with two to three years of service time (Blake Snell’s five-year, $50MM deal) and even with three to four years of service (Sandy Alcantara’s five-year, $56MM deal).

Because extensions, more so than free-agent contracts, draw heavily from recent comparables, the Strider deal in many ways paves the way for new precedent to be established in multiple service classes. That’s not to say every pitcher with between one and four years of service time will now require $75MM+ to sign an extension, of course; Strider’s case as a Rookie of the Year frontrunner and budding ace is far from the norm.

Nonetheless, as we’ve seen with young position players in recent years, the market for these types of extensions can still advance rapidly. Back when Acuna signed his eight-year, $100MM extension, that was the largest deal ever for a position player with under a year of big league service. That mark was quickly smashed by Wander Franco (11 years, $182MM) and further surpassed this summer by Julio Rodriguez (12 years, $210MM).

With Strider’s salaries now set through the 2028 season, the Braves, incredibly, already have $76MM on the books six years down the line. That’s more than any other team in baseball. The Padres have about $57MM on the ’28 books between Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr., while the Rangers have about $51MM on the books between Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. (Machado can opt out of his deal with the Friars after next year, so the Padres’ 2028 commitments may not end up being quite so large.) Obviously, $76MM in 2028 will carry less weight than $76MM in 2022, but it’s still a hefty commitment to have so far down the line.

There’s some degree of risk for the Braves in laying out such lengthy commitments, even if each looks quite team friendly in a vacuum. Injuries and regression could always push any of these extensions from “bargain” to “burden” — particularly in the later stages of the deals, when the salaries are come with more heft. Still, given the general excellence of this group, it’s impossible not to be bullish on the team’s future.

Looking more immediately down the line, the Braves already have $153MM on next year’s payroll and nearly $110MM on the 2024 payroll. That’s before considering a slate of arbitration-eligible players headlined by lefty Max Fried, who’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn more than $12MM in 2023. Atlanta would have a franchise-record payroll in 2023 even if the only moves made by the front office were to simply tender arbitration contracts to their eligible players.

Of course, that’s certainly not all the Braves will do this winter. First and foremost on the agenda will be negotiations with shortstop Dansby Swanson, who’ll be a free agent once the postseason concludes. The Braves and Swanson have publicly expressed mutual interest in a new contract, but getting something done would likely send the Braves soaring over the $200MM mark in terms of their bottom-line payroll while also pushing them into the general vicinity of the first luxury tax threshold for the first time ever. The Braves also surely are still hopeful of extending Fried, who’s controlled through the 2024 season. If they succeed in signing both Swanson and Fried, there’s virtually no path to avoiding the luxury tax.

On the one hand, while contracts like this Strider extension are cause to celebrate in the long-term, they do also create some shorter-term considerations. Strider would’ve only counted around $750K toward the luxury tax in 2023, had he not signed this extension. He’ll instead now carry a sizable $12.5MM luxury hit — the average annual value of his new contract. It’s still a win for both player and team, but the glut of long-term deals does inflate the Braves’ luxury ledger more quickly than a year-by-year approach would.

On the other hand, that’s a trivial concern when juxtaposed with the benefit of having so many high-end players signed for the next six-plus seasons. And with a World Series win in 2021 and another postseason run forthcoming, the NL East-champion Braves will no doubt see a boost to their revenues, lessening the sting of any luxury penalties that may arise in the next couple years. Atlanta already arguably boasted the best cost-controlled core of any team in baseball over the next half decade, and adding Strider to the preexisting quintet of Harris, Olson, Riley, Albies and Acuna only furthers their case. Waves of injuries can derail any team at any time, but health-permitting, the Braves are going to be good for a long, long time.

Giants Hire Pete Putila As General Manager

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The Giants announced Monday night they’ve hired Pete Putila as their new general manager. Putila, formerly an Astros assistant GM, steps in as the #2 in the front office hierarchy under president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi. Previous GM Scott Harris departed a few weeks ago to take over baseball operations with the Tigers.

Zaidi informed reporters last week the team was hoping to have a GM in place by early November. San Francisco struck far earlier than that, nabbing the well-regarded Putila away from Houston. “Being where we are and facing a big offseason, I think it’s going to be a great thing for us to have some fresh perspectives in the organization,” Zaidi said at the time. “A new general manager could certainly bring a fresh perspective on our roster, player development and evaluation philosophies.”

A West Virginia graduate, Putila spent more than a decade in the Houston front office. Originally hired as an intern in 2011, he quickly moved through the front office under former GM Jeff Lunhow. He spent a fair amount of time working in the build-up of the Houston farm system during the Astros rebuild, earning a promotion to director of player development by 2016. Towards the end of the 2019 campaign, Putila earned a bump to assistant GM.

The following offseason, the Astros parted ways with Lunhow in the wake of the public revelation of the extent of the 2017 sign-stealing operation. New GM James Click kept Putila in a high-ranking front office position, however, reflecting the value a pair of baseball operations leaders placed on his input.

Putila was a candidate for the Giants GM search back in 2019. San Francisco ended up poaching Harris from the Cubs front office that time around, but Putila apparently made a favorable impression on Zaidi and his high-ranking staff at the time. He also garnered some consideration in the Pirates GM search that winter, but Pittsburgh eventually tabbed Ben Cherington to lead baseball ops.

It’s a pivotal offseason for the Giants, who disappointed with an 81-81 season this year. Last winter, San Francisco mostly focused on retaining the core of a team that claimed 107 wins and an NL West title in 2021, aside from replacing Kevin Gausman with Carlos Rodón in free agency. There figures to be a fair bit more turnover this winter, with Zaidi on the record about his desire to get a younger, more athletic position player group. Putila will step into the biggest role of his career, helping Zaidi oversee that likely aggressive winter.

Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2023

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Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for 12 years.

In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting individual comps for each individual player.

As a disclaimer, it should be emphasized that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.

The service time figures, listed in parentheses below, are official. However, there is not yet an established Super Two cutoff. That could lead to a few late entrants being added to the list. It’s also worth noting that contracts signed prior to the non-tender deadline aren’t generally considered to be normal arbitration comparables; contracts signed prior to that deadline can be skewed by light offers that are presented to borderline non-tender candidates in take-it-or-leave-it fashion (with “leave it,” in such instances, being a non-tender). That’s not universal to all pre-tender deals but is frequently applicable.

If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription.

Onto the numbers…

Angels (7)

Astros (9)

Athletics (6)

Blue Jays (13)

Braves (6)

Brewers (18)

Cardinals (11)

Cubs (10)

Diamondbacks (9)

Dodgers (12)

Giants (13)

Guardians (9)

Marlins (12)

Mariners (11)

Mets (8)

Nationals (10)

Orioles (7)

Padres (10)

Phillies (7)

Pirates (6)

Rangers (6)

Rays (19)

Red Sox (11)

Reds (11)

Rockies (6)

Royals (11)

Tigers (12)

Twins (12)

White Sox (8)

Yankees (14)

Phillies Sign Manager Rob Thomson To Two-Year Extension

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Rob Thomson is “interim” Phillies manager no more. The Phillies announced today that Thomson has been signed to a two-year extension covering the 2023-24 seasons, shedding his “interim” label and installing him as the team’s official manager.

Thomson, 59, opened the season as the bench coach to then-manager Joe Girardi but was promoted when the Phils fired Girardi on the heels of an ugly 22-29 start to their season. That early June dismissal came as owner John Middleton sought to shake up the clubhouse and breathe new life into that had spent more than half a billion dollars in free agents over the past several seasons. Despite having inked the likes of Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, J.T. Realmuto, Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber, however, the Phils looked to be on their way to an 11th consecutive postseason miss when Girardi was ousted.

The key phrase there is “looked to be on their way,” because in short order under Thomson, the Phillies not only found their stride and played back into contention — they posted one of MLB’s best records from June on, fought into the National League Wild Card round, and quickly ousted the NL Central-champion Cardinals in a two-game sweep on the road.

The Phillies went 65-46 under Thomson from the day he took the reins, and the pair of postseason wins — one a dramatic, ninth-inning comeback against a quality Cardinals bullpen — only furthered Thomson’s cause. Now after more than three decades of working in various front office and coaching capacities, Thomson will land his first long-term managerial post. He’s previously coached in the minors with the Tigers, held high-ranking player development positions in the Yankees organization, and accumulated more than two decades as a first base coach, third base coach and bench coach between the big leagues and the minors.

Even with the interim skippers being elevated both in Philadelphia and in Anaheim, there are five current managerial positions that are either vacant or occupied by an interim skipper throughout the league. The Rangers, Royals, White Sox, Blue Jays and Marlins will all need to name new managers, and it’s possible that postseason results could yet dictate another ousting or two.

Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reported the move was coming just minutes before the formal announcement (Twitter link).

Aroldis Chapman To Be Left Off Yankees’ ALDS Roster After Skipping Team Workout

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Yankees lefty Aroldis Chapman will be left off the club’s ALDS roster after skipping a team workout on Friday. Manager Aaron Boone told reporters this morning, saying that the veteran lefty was scheduled to throw live batting practice on Friday but missed it with “not an acceptable excuse,” per Lindsey Adler and Chris Kirschner of The Athletic.

General manager Brian Cashman also spoke with the media, with Bryan Hoch of MLB.com relaying about two minutes of video on Twitter. Cashman said that the official roster decisions have not been made yet but that Chapman has taken himself out of consideration, explaining that the southpaw flew to Miami for the club’s off-day between Wednesday’s regular season finale and a scheduled workout on Friday. However, he didn’t return for that workout and has now been fined by the team, in addition to being told not to return for the time being.

Chapman certainly wasn’t guaranteed a spot on the roster based on his performance this season and Cashman indeed said that an element of the workout was for the lefty to throw a live bullpen as part of competing for a spot. However, he’s now made it a moot point with his truancy. Since Chapman is an impending free agent, this news creates the possibility that Chapman has thrown his final pitch as a Yankee.

After pitching to a then-career-high 3.36 ERA in 55 1/3 innings in 2021, Chapman hoped to reestablish himself as a premier closer before entering free agency in his age-35 season. Instead, today’s debacle is the latest development in Chapman’s saga-filled 2022 season.

In the final year of a three-year, $48MM extension signed after the 2019 season, Chapman has begun to show his age. The long-time closer lost his role at the back of the bullpen to Clay Holmes after a month into the season, giving up six earned runs in 5 2/3 innings in May before left Achillies tendinitis forced a trip to the 15-day IL for the entirety of June.

Upon his return in July, Chapman continued to underperform, allowing 10 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings before landing on the 15-day IL again, this time due to a leg infection stemming from a tattoo. Chapman returned in mid-September and showed signs of improving, giving up only 2 runs over his final 5 2/3 innings. Collectively, Chapman finished the 2022 regular season with a 4.46 ERA in 36 1/3 innings.

Whether or not Chapman returns to the club for a later postseason round, it’s fair to wonder how much interest he will have in free agency this winter. Though he was once one of the most dominant relief pitchers in the game, he’s coming off a poor season and has compounded those concerns with off-field problems. In addition to this year’s issues, Chapman was also given a 30-game suspension in 2016 for domestic violence.

Royals Fire Manager Mike Matheny

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The Royals’ organizational shake-up continues. Shortly after wrapping up a 69-93 season, Kansas City announced that manager Mike Matheny and pitching coach Cal Eldred will not return in 2023. The Royals had exercised a 2023 club option on Matheny’s services in Spring Training, but he’ll be relieved of his duties a season early.

The news comes a few weeks after the Royals made a change atop the front office. President of baseball operations Dayton Moore was dismissed in late September, with general manager J.J. Picollo tasked to lead baseball operations. Picollo’s first major decision is to make a leadership change in the clubhouse, and the Royals will now turn their attention towards finding a new skipper.

Matheny’s dismissal closes the books on his three-year managerial tenure. Originally brought to the K.C. organization over the 2018-19 offseason as a special assistant, Matheny was almost immediately rumored as a likely successor to then-manager Ned Yost. When Yost stepped aside at the end of the 2019 season, the Royals indeed tabbed Matheny to return to the top of the dugout steps. The former big league catcher had spent six-plus years managing the Cardinals between 2012-18, and he obviously impressed the Royals front office during his season as a special assistant.

It wasn’t a particularly imposing roster, with Matheny taking over as the team was firmly amidst a rebuild. Kansas City had lost over 100 games in each of the preceding two years, so it wasn’t especially surprising they stumbled to a 26-34 mark during the abbreviated 2020 campaign. The following offseason, the Royals added Carlos Santana, Andrew Benintendi and Mike Minor in an effort to be more competitive. They were, to some extent, finishing with a 74-88 record that came with their highest win percentage (45.7%) since 2017.

Still, the improvements weren’t enough to make the Royals full-fledged contenders. After a 15-7 showing in April, they finished .500 or below in every ensuing month. Kansas City was surprisingly quiet last winter. The Royals reunited with Zack Greinke on a $13MM contract and shipped out the underperforming Minor for reliever Amir Garrett. Otherwise, Kansas City was counting on internal improvements paired with the fruits of a burgeoning farm system to get back above .500 for the first time since winning the World Series in 2015.

The Royals carried top prospect Bobby Witt Jr. on the Opening Day roster. Within a couple months, MJ Melendez and Vinnie Pasquantino would join him. All three have gotten off to solid starts, with Witt and Pasquantino looking like above-average regulars from the outset. The team’s overall performance, though, went in the wrong direction. They won nine fewer games than they had in 2021, finishing with the fifth-worst record in the majors. Benintendi and longtime franchise cornerstone Whit Merrifield were traded away midseason.

Among the biggest reasons for the lack of progress was a starting rotation that ranked 26th in the majors with a 4.72 ERA. Of the seven K.C. starters to top 20 innings, five had an ERA of 4.93 or higher. That’s particularly disheartening considering the volume of talented young arms the Royals have seen reach the majors in recent seasons. Kansas City invested plenty of draft capital in bolstering their pitching pipeline, including using four of the top 40 overall selections in 2018 on college arms. Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch and Kris Bubic were all brought in that year, but only Singer has taken the developmental strides the club had envisioned.

After surprisingly beginning the year in the bullpen, Singer was quickly sent to Triple-A to stretch back out as a starter. After reassuming a rotation role in mid-May, the righty emerged as the Royals most productive arm. He made 24 starts and worked to a 3.11 ERA with an above-average 24.2% strikeout rate and a quality 48.5% ground-ball mark. Singer still struggled to turn over lineups three times, but he dominated opponents his first two times through an order. While it may not have been a perfect campaign, Singer’s 2022 season undoubtedly qualified as a success.

Unfortunately for the Royals, none of his peers took a similar step forward. None of Bubic, Lynch or Jon Heasley posted an ERA below 5.00, and all three had well below-average strikeout rates. Carlos Hernández was one of the league’s worst pitchers in a season-opening rotation look and eventually found himself in the bullpen. Kowar has been hit hard during his limited MLB stints over the past two seasons and had a 6.16 ERA through 20 Triple-A starts this year. Grounder specialist Brad Keller has taken a massive step back over the past couple years and could be non-tendered this offseason. It’s to the Royals’ credit that Keller, selected out of the Diamondbacks organization in the 2017-18 Rule 5 draft, ever emerged as a productive starter in the first place. Still, his regression paired with the lack of progress from many of Kansas City’s most promising arms will have to be an area of focus for Picollo and his front office group.

The first move in that arena comes on the coaching staff. In addition to Matheny, the Royals move on from Eldred after five seasons as pitching coach. First hired to join Yost’s staff going into 2018, the former MLB right-hander remained in the role once Matheny took over two years later. Kansas City will now look for a new voice to work with the big league arms, and Andy McCullough of the Athletic reports the organization is likely to follow with changes to its pitching infrastructure in the player development department.

It’ll obviously be a significant winter for the Royals, who now have the American League’s second-longest active postseason drought. The team’s collection of high-upside rookie position players bolsters an increasingly promising lineup. Kansas City could look for upgrades in the corner outfield and at third base, but the bigger area of concern seems likely to be the pitching staff. The Royals will have to go outside the organization to add at least one or two starters (particularly if Greinke doesn’t return in free agency), and they’ll obviously hope for better results from the likes of Lynch and Bubic in 2023 and beyond.

Kansas City becomes the sixth MLB team without a permanent manager in place. The Blue Jays and Phillies have interim skippers in John Schneider and Rob Thomson, respectively. Those teams qualified for the postseason. The Rangers turned to Tony Beasley in an interim capacity after dismissing Chris Woodward, while the White Sox went with Miguel Cairo once Tony La Russa stepped aside due to health concerns. The Marlins, meanwhile, have already announced Don Mattingly won’t return as skipper next season. There’ll be a fair bit of turnover on the managerial front around the league, although the Angels solidified their situation this afternoon by signing Phil Nevin to a one-year deal and removing the interim tag from his title.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Angels Sign Phil Nevin To One-Year Deal As Manager

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The Angels announced that they have agreed to a one-year contract with Phil Nevin to manage the club in 2023. Nevin had taken over on an interim basis this year when Joe Maddon was fired but will stick around for another season in the dugout.

Nevin, 51, will get his first proper stint as a manager next year. After playing in 12 seasons from 1995 to 2006, he transitioned into coaching. He began in independent ball before getting some work in the minors. He got up to the major league level in 2017, joining the Giants as a third base coach before taking on the same job with the Yankees and then the Angels.

2022 got off to a roaring start for the Angels, with the club going 14-8 in April. For a moment, there was hope that the club could finally put it all together after years of not being able to capitalize on all the talent on their roster. However, the club slumped after that, eventually undergoing a 12-game losing streak across the end of May and early June, leading to Maddon getting fired as bench boss.

Nevin was promoted to interim manager at that point, losing his first two games to extend that losing streak to a 14-gamer. Overall, since the switch, the club has gone 46-59. Those aren’t exactly inspiring numbers, but it’s hard to know how much of that to pin on Nevin given the deficiencies of the roster.

Despite Nevin’s lack of experience and tepid results so far, there’s some logic to maintaining the continuity of the staff by keeping him around. There’s a great deal of uncertainty hovering over the club right now for a few reasons, one of which is that owner Arte Moreno is exploring selling the team. It’s possible that the club has a new owner in place or at least lined up by this time next year. At that time, they may have their own plans about how they want to run the club, whether they want to try to compete immediately or embark on a rebuild. Given that uncertain future, it makes sense to keep Nevin in there as a sort of placeholder until the future becomes clearer. The alternative would be conducting a lengthy search to find a new manager, but candidates might not be enthused about stepping into a situation that is still very much in flux.

There’s also the uncertainty around the on-field product. Despite having tremendously talented players like Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Anthony Rendon on the roster, the team has continued to disappoint. They haven’t made the playoffs since 2014 and haven’t had a winning record since 2015. Ohtani is currently slated to reach free agency after the 2023 campaign, at which point Trout will be 32 and Rendon will be 33. It’s entirely possible that next season is the one that they finally put it all together, but it’s also possible that they disappoint yet again. The roster has obvious holes right now and it’s hard to guess how much Moreno would be interested in spending on a team he’s actively trying to sell.

There’s a wide variety of potential outcomes for the next year with a vast number of unknowns beyond that. The club will eventually have to decide what kind of manager they want, depending on which path they go down. However, today’s decision to keep Nevin around effectively kicks that can down the road for another year.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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