Mets Sign Dylan Bundy To Minor League Deal
The Mets have signed right-hander Dylan Bundy to a minor league deal, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today.
Bundy, 30, signed with the Twins last year on a one-year deal with a club option, eventually making 29 starts with a 4.89 ERA. His 15.8% strikeout rate and 34% ground ball rate were both well shy of league average, but he kept runs off the board by limiting walks to a 4.7% rate. The Twins could have retained Bundy for another season by picking up his $11MM option but went for the $1MM buyout instead, returning him to the open market.
The righty lingered in free agency all winter as other starting pitching options flew off the board. He’s long been one of the best options still available, though he didn’t seem to garner too much public interest this winter. He’s had some solid years in his major league career but hasn’t quite lived up to the hype that surrounded him about a decade ago. Selected by the Orioles with the 4th overall pick in the 2011 draft, Bundy jumped onto Baseball America’s list of the top prospects across the league the following year. He nabbed the #10 spot in 2012, making his MLB debut that year and jumped to #2 going into 2013. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John surgery in 2013, wiping out that season and much of 2014 as well, with a shoulder injury limiting him to eight minor league starts in 2015.
Bundy finally made it back to the big leagues in 2016 after missing the previous three campaigns. He posted a 4.02 ERA that year and has had some decent seasons since then, but never really moving past the production of a mid-rotation starter. Though he posted a 3.29 ERA in the shortened 2020 campaign, his best figure in a full season is that 4.02 mark from back in 2016. His career ERA currently sits at 4.74. He’s struck out 21.9% of batters faced in his career but the drop off to 15.8% last year was certainly steep. His fastball averaged just 89 mph last year, a drop from 90.7 mph the year before and well down from the 94.4 he had back in 2016.
With the drop in velocity and strikeouts, it’s hardly surprising that Bundy had to settle for this minor league deal. That being said, it’s a very sensible addition for a Mets club that has question marks in its rotation. They went into spring with an excellent on-paper group of Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Kodai Senga, Carlos Carrasco and José Quintana. That was a group to be excited about, though there was also some risk, given that four of them are older than 34 years old. The youngest one, 30-year-old Senga, will be making the challenging transition from the once-a-week pitching schedule in Japan to the five-day rotation of North American ball. It was fair to wonder if that might leave the club vulnerable to health or fatigue concerns, and those fears were realized when Quintana went down with a fractured rib that will keep him out until July.
Quintana’s injury meant that the Mets would have to turn to one of their depth options right away. They have some good arms on the roster, such as David Peterson and Tylor Megill, though it’s not ideal to be subtracting players from the mix before the season has even started. By bringing Bundy aboard on a minor league deal, they’ve added an starter with plenty of major league experience, without taking on any risk.
Since Bundy has essentially missed all of Spring Training, he will likely need a few weeks to get into game shape before becoming a realistic option for the club. In the meantime, he’ll likely head to the minors and start ramping up. If the Mets suffer another injury or two over the next little while, Bundy will eventually give them an extra layer of protection in the minors. For any other club still looking to add to its starting depth, some of the remaining free agent options include Chris Archer, Michael Pineda or Anibal Sanchez.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Reds Acquire Will Benson From Guardians
The Reds are adding to their outfield, announcing the acquisition of Will Benson from the Guardians. Cleveland receives outfield prospect Justin Boyd and a player to be named later in the deal. In order to clear a spot on their 40-man roster, Cincinnati designated infielder Alejo López for assignment.
Benson was the 14th overall pick in the 2016 draft out of a Georgia high school. Listed at 6’5″ and 230 pounds, the lefty-hitting outfielder drew praise from prospect evaluators for his massive raw power and exceptionally patient plate approach. That was always paired with questions about his propensity to swing and miss, as his size has led to concerns about the length of his swing path and bat control. That combination of huge physical upside with a number of strikeouts has been on display for the bulk of his minor league career.
He moved slowly up the ranks, not reaching Double-A until the 2021 season. That was in part attributable to the cancelation of the minor league schedule the year before but also reflected the three-plus years he spent at various A-ball levels. He topped 20 home runs in both 2018 and ’19 while drawing nearly as many walks as anyone in the affiliated ranks but consistently struck out at a rate approaching or exceeding 30%. That remained the case in his first Double-A action, though he hit 14 homers with an 18.1% walk rate to earn a brief Triple-A look late in the ’21 season.
Benson struggled in his first 27 Triple-A games, leading the Guardians to leave him unprotected in that offseason’s Rule 5 draft. The draft never transpired because of the lockout and he returned to their top affiliate in Columbus last year. The 24-year-old put together arguably his most impressive minor league showing, hitting .278/.426/.522 with 17 home runs through 401 plate appearances. He walked at his customarily excellent 18.7% rate and stole 16 bases in 20 attempts. Most encouragingly, he cut his strikeout rate to a league average 22.7% clip.
As a result, the Guardians selected him for his major league debut last August. He got into 28 games, hitting .182/.250/.200 with three walks and 19 strikeouts over his first 61 plate appearances. It wasn’t a strong start to his MLB career, though Benson’s Triple-A production clearly elevated his stock relative to where it had been at the opening of the season.
Benson has experience at all three outfield positions throughout his professional career. He’s long been considered best suited for right field given his size and above-average arm strength, though he’s a deceptively good athlete who’s at least capable of covering center field in a pinch.
The Reds will roll the dice on his upside, betting on him to sustain some of the contact gains he made while continuing to demonstrate excellent plate discipline and tapping into his power. He still has all three minor league option years remaining, meaning the Reds can freely move him between Cincinnati and Triple-A Louisville for the foreseeable future. Benson has just 66 days of major league service time under his belt. He won’t reach arbitration until after the 2025 season at the earliest and is under club control through at least the ’28 campaign. Future optional assignments to the minor leagues can push that timeline back further.
Cincinnati doesn’t have much certainty in their short-term outfield mix. Jake Fraley had a solid 2022 campaign and seems the favorite for left field work. Nick Senzel is penciled in as the starting center fielder, though he might be delayed in Spring Training as he recovers from offseason toe surgery. Senzel has struggled enough over the past few seasons his hold on the center field job probably isn’t very strong. There’d seem to be an open battle for reps in right field, with TJ Friedl, Stuart Fairchild, Michael Siani, Nick Solak and perhaps offseason signees Wil Myers and Chad Pinder — both of whom can play other positions — in the mix. Benson steps into that group and could vie for at-bats in Spring Training.
The Guardians have a number of controllable outfield options who looked to be ahead of Benson on the depth chart. The presumptive regular outfield consists of Steven Kwan in left, Myles Straw in center and Oscar Gonzalez in right. While there are some questions about Straw’s offense and Gonzalez’s extremely aggressive plate approach, Cleveland also has Will Brennan on hand as a potential replacement. Top prospect George Valera isn’t far off big league readiness himself.
Considering that depth, the Guardians have now twice subtracted a promising young player from further down the depth chart for a prospect. Cleveland dealt Nolan Jones to the Rockies in November. The Benson trade is a similar move, this time also clearing a 40-man spot while bringing back a player who’s further from major league readiness.
Boyd, 22 next month, was selected with the 73rd overall pick coming out of Oregon State last summer. A right-handed hitting outfielder, he raked at a .373/.490/.577 clip during his final season in Corvallis. Boyd struggled over 21 Low-A games to close out the year but was an excellent college performer.
Baseball America placed him 133rd on their board before the draft, praising his athleticism and collegiate performance but raising questions about his power upside. He’ll likely start next season in either Low-A or High-A for Cleveland and won’t need to be added to the 40-man roster to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft until after the 2025 campaign.
To accommodate the one-for-one swap, the Reds also had to clear a 40-man roster spot. That comes at the expense of López, who has been an up-and-down infielder since June 2021. The 26-year-old has played in 75 big league contests, hitting .262/.307/.321 across 179 trips to the plate. He’s shown plus contact skills, only striking out 14.5% of the time. That hasn’t come with many walks or extra-base impact, though, as evidenced by his modest OBP and lone home run. It was a similar story in Louisville, where he hit .256/.330/.363 with three homers and an 11.5% strikeout percentage through 46 games last year.
López has primarily played second and third base but gotten brief looks in the outfield as well. He’ll be traded or placed on waivers in the next week. López has never been outrighted and doesn’t have the requisite service time to elect free agency if he clears waivers, so the Reds could keep him at Louisville as infield depth if he goes unclaimed.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Cardinals Sign Miles Mikolas To Two-Year Extension
The Cardinals have locked up one of their starters beyond this season. St. Louis announced Friday afternoon they’ve signed Miles Mikolas to an extension that runs through 2025. The deal reportedly tacks on two years and $40MM in guarantees and comes with potential awards bonuses.
Mikolas had been set to make $15.75MM this season, the final of a four-year extension he signed back in 2019. The new deal tacks on some money up front. He’ll receive a $5MM signing bonus to be paid by July 1 and sees his 2023 salary jump to $18.75MM. The Octagon client will then earn consecutive $16MM salaries in 2024-25.
The 34-year-old Mikolas is coming off one of his finest seasons, having logged a career-high 202 1/3 innings with a 3.29 ERA. His 19% strikeout rate was well below average, but the right-hander offset that with an exceptional 4.8% walk rate and a 45% ground-ball rate that checks in a bit above average. He also limited hard contact at a better-than-average rate, evidenced by an 87.8 mph average exit velocity and 35.4% hard-hit rate, which landed in the 65th and 66th percentile of MLB pitchers, respectively.
Locking up Mikolas is of particular importance for the Cardinals given the long-term outlook of their rotation. Adam Wainwright has already announced his intention to retire after the 2023 season, and Mikolas was set to be joined by Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty in free agency. That would’ve left Steven Matz as the only established starter under contract or club control beyond the 2023 season.
The Cardinals surely have hopes that some combination of young pitchers and prospects — Matthew Liberatore, Jake Woodford and Gordon Graceffo among them — will step up and stake their claim to rotation spots when opportunities present themselves this year. That’s a big bet for a team to make when facing the possibility of losing 80% of its rotation, however. Keeping Mikolas in the fold lessens some of the pressure on those young arms, retains a staff leader and proactively fills one 2024 rotation spot — health permitting, of course.
That last note shouldn’t simply be written off. While Mikolas was one of just eight MLB pitchers to reach 200 innings last year and has made 32 starts in three of the past five seasons, he’s had his share of recent injury troubles as well. He missed the entire 2020 season due to a torn flexor tendon that required surgery, and discomfort in that surgically repaired forearm/flexor area limited Mikolas to just nine starts in 2021.
The extension is a clear bet that those forearm issues are behind him and that he’s back to his workhorse ways. All signs since Opening Day 2022 have pointed to that being the case, and with Wainwright slated to open the season on the injured list, Mikolas has been announced as the Cardinals’ Opening Day starter in his place.
From a payroll vantage point, there was ample room for the Cards to make this move. They’ll open the 2023 season with a payroll of nearly $188MM (including Mikolas’ signing bonus and 2023 salary bump) but had just shy of $107MM on next year’s books prior to this deal. That doesn’t include their arbitration class, but it’s a relatively small group of eight players: Tyler O’Neill, Dakota Hudson, Tommy Edman, Ryan Helsley, Andrew Knizner, Genesis Cabrera, Dylan Carlson and Anthony Misiewicz. No one from that group is making even $5MM in 2023, and there are a handful of plausible non-tender candidates in the group as well.
A $16MM salary for Mikolas next season will bump that 2024 commitment to about $123MM. Overall, the contract’s $20MM average annual value is a bump over the $17MM AAV of his current four-year, $68MM contract — an increase that’s reflective of the contract’s shorter nature, the rising price of starting pitching on the open market and of Mikolas’ strong results in 2022. The $20MM AAV on the deal is comparable to that of fellow mid- or even late-30s veterans like Chris Bassitt ($21MM) and Charlie Morton ($20MM).
The new contract covers Mikolas’ age-35 and age-36 seasons. He’ll have the opportunity to return to the market in advance of his age-37 season, and as pitchers like Morton and Zack Greinke have illustrated in recent years, there’s still ample earning power for non-ace pitchers at that juncture of a career so long as they remain healthy.
Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch first reported the Cardinals and Mikolas had agreed to an extension. Jesse Rogers of ESPN reported it was worth $40MM over two years, as well as the salary structure. The Associated Press reported the bonus was to be paid by July 1 and the presence of award bonuses.
Keston Hiura Will Not Make Brewers’ Roster
The Brewers have informed infielder Keston Hiura he will not be on the active roster, general manager Matt Arnold told reporters (including Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). Since he’s out of minor league option years, Milwaukee will have to trade him or place him on waivers in the next few days.
Arnold also indicated that outfielder Tyler Naquin — who is in camp on a minor league deal — won’t be on the team either (relayed by Adam McCalvy of MLB.com). Naquin will have a chance to opt out of his contract and retest free agency if he doesn’t plan to accept an assignment to Triple-A Nashville.
The tougher call for the Milwaukee front office was to cut bait with Hiura. The ninth overall pick in the 2017 draft, he entered pro ball as one of the game’s top offensive prospects. Hiura flew through the minor leagues and was in the majors within two seasons. He hit the ground running, connecting on 19 home runs with a .303/.368/.570 line in 84 games as a rookie at age 22. That came with a somewhat concerning 30.7% strikeout rate, but it seemed fair to anticipate Hiura making strides from a contact perspective as he gained more experience against big league arms.
Unfortunately for player and team alike, that’s not how things have played out. While he hit 13 more homers in 59 games during the shortened season, his strikeouts jumped to 34.6%. That led to a meager .212/.297/.410 slash. The swing-and-miss concerns continued to mount the following year, as he punched out just under 40% of the time in 61 big league contests. That led Milwaukee to yo-yo between him the majors and Nashville, where Hiura hit for a ton of power and drew plenty of walks but continued striking out at an alarming clip.
It was a similar story in 2022. The UC-Irvine product got into 80 MLB games and drilled 14 homers. His .226/.316/.449 line was 15 percentage points better than last year’s league average offense, as measured by wRC+. Yet it came with a personal-high 41.7% strikeout percentage, the second-highest rate among the 358 hitters with 200+ plate appearances. Any regression in his .355 batting average on balls in play could’ve left him around the Mendoza line with a sub-.300 OBP unless he took a step forward with his bat-to-ball skills. He’d been off to a rough start this spring, striking out in 15 of 32 at-bats while hitting .156/.229/.219.
Unlike in prior years, the Brew Crew didn’t have the luxury of sending Hiura to Nashville to try to figure things out. Without any remaining options, they had to determine whether it was worth carrying him in a bench role. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored a couple weeks ago, the decision was complicated by the presence of another right-handed first baseman, Luke Voit, who’s in camp on a minor league deal. Milwaukee parting ways with Hiura would seem to bode well for Voit’s chances of cracking the roster, though the club hasn’t yet indicated whether he’ll make the team.
The Brewers will take the next few days to evaluate their options with Hiura. It seems likely another team will have some interest in a change of scenery trade. He’s under arbitration control through the 2025 campaign and playing this year on an affordable $2.2MM salary. A win-now team like Milwaukee might not have room on the roster but a club with a less immediate contention window like the Nationals or Rockies could take a look. The Phillies are an immediate contender but just lost Rhys Hoskins to a likely season-ending ACL tear and could look for a righty bat to supplement the first base mix.
If Milwaukee were to place Hiura on waivers, any other team could grab him while assuming the salary. Should he go unclaimed, he’d almost certainly stick with the organization in Nashville. Hiura has between three and five years of service time, which gives him the right to refuse an outright assignment but would require relinquishing his salary to do so.
As for Naquin, he seems likely to explore his options on the market. The left-handed hitter is a career .274/.326/.468 hitter against righty pitching. He’s not a great defender and is best served in a platoon capacity but he could find immediate interest elsewhere. Naquin hit .194/.278/.258 in 12 games this spring.
With Tyrone Taylor set to open the season on the injured list, Milwaukee has a decision to make in right field. Christian Yelich will be in left and Garrett Mitchell seems a virtual lock for center. Right field time could fall to Brian Anderson or utility player Owen Miller but Milwaukee also has a pair of highly-regarded prospects in Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer. Neither has yet played in the majors but both hit well in Triple-A last year. Arnold said that either of Frelick or Wiemer breaking camp is “definitely in play” (via Hogg).
Rhys Hoskins Diagnosed With Torn ACL, Will Undergo Surgery
The Phillies have lost Rhys Hoskins for almost certainly the entire season. Philadelphia announced Thursday evening the veteran first baseman tore the ACL in his left knee. He’ll undergo surgery at an unspecified date. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski will meet with the media to discuss the situation tomorrow morning.
Hoskins was injured during this morning’s Spring Training action against the Tigers. He retreated to field an Austin Meadows chopper that pushed him just into the outfield grass. After the ball kicked off his glove, Hoskins scrambled to retrieve it but immediately went down in pain (video provided on Twitter by Chris Brown of the Woodward Sports Network). The club had to call for a cart to take him off the field. While manager Rob Thomson later indicated that Hoskins was able to walk in the clubhouse, imaging revealed the devastating injury.
It’s a horrible development for team and player alike. Hoskins had been set to occupy his typical middle-of-the-order lineup spot for the defending National League champions. A paragon of offensive consistency, he’s hit between 27 and 34 home runs in all four of his full MLB seasons. Hoskins pairs that power with plus walk totals to more than compensate for slightly higher than average strikeout rates. Even after accounting for Philadelphia’s hitter-friendly home park, he’s been a well above-average offensive player throughout his career.
Hoskins is coming off his typical season. He connected on 30 homers with a .246/.332/.462 line while suiting up in 156 regular season games. While he only hit .159 with a .205 on-base percentage in the playoffs, he popped six homers in 73 postseason PA’s.
That kind of power production would have been of particular import for the Phils early in the 2023 campaign. Bryce Harper is recovering from Tommy John surgery and will open the year on the injured list. While Philadelphia doesn’t have any imminent plans to put the two-time MVP on the 60-day IL, the club has only specified they expect him back around the All-Star Break. They’ll now be down two of their best hitters early in the year and, in Hoskins’ case, likely for the entire season.
The Phils added another star position player this offseason, signing Trea Turner to a $300MM deal. The Phils have a pair of more traditional sluggers in last winter’s signees Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos. Schwarber is coming off a 46-homer season in his first year with the club. Castellanos, on the other hand, struggled to a .263/.305/.389 line in the initial season of a five-year deal. With Hoskins out, there’s more pressure on Castellanos to return to peak form alongside Turner, Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and eventually Harper in the lineup.
In the immediate future, the Phils will have to sort out how to divvy up first base playing time. The most straightforward decision would be to give the job to 27-year-old Darick Hall. A left-handed power bat, Hall got into his first 42 MLB games last season. He connected on nine longballs and slugged .522 in 142 plate appearances. That’s a promising start but a meager 3.5% walk rate and elevated 31% strikeout percentage contributed to a .282 OBP. Hall had hit .254/.330/.528 with 28 homers, a 9.5% walk percentage and a 22.6% strikeout rate in 101 games with Triple-A Lehigh Valley.
Aside from Hall, the Phils could give occasional first base reps to either of Schwarber or Castellanos. Utility players like Josh Harrison or Kody Clemens could take some at-bats but aren’t likely to hit enough to play there regularly. The Phillies could also slide third baseman Alec Bohm across the diamond — particularly if they want the right-handed Bohm to take some reps from Hall against lefty pitching — while plugging Harrison or Edmundo Sosa at the hot corner for defensive purposes. Realmuto also seems likely to pick up a few starts on days when the Phils want to get him some time off from behind the dish.
If Philadelphia were to go outside the organization, Miguel Sanó stands as the top unsigned first baseman. Other players should come available as teams make roster cuts. The Brewers may wind up having to decide between minor league signee Luke Voit and the out-of-options Keston Hiura. The Marlins could soon have to decide whether to keep non-roster invitee Yuli Gurriel or allow him to retest the market. Phillies brass figures to provide insight into the plans over the coming days.
In addition to the difficulty of losing an entire season on a championship contender, it’s hard to draw up a worse time for an injury of this nature for Hoskins personally. The 30-year-old will be a free agent for the first time next offseason. One of the top bats in what looks to be a shallow free agent position player class, he looked like an obvious choice to reject a qualifying offer and sign a lucrative multi-year deal. Instead, he might have to take a pillow contract to reestablish himself before testing the market again over the 2024-25 offseason. Josh Bell and Trey Mancini, who can each opt out of the deals they signed this winter, now look like the top impending free agents at first base.
Jed Lowrie Announces Retirement
Former All-Star second baseman Jed Lowrie tells Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle that he’s retiring after 15-year Major League career and a professional career that spanned parts of 18 seasons. Lowrie tells Slusser that he’s “gotten to the point where I listen to my body and when I think about playing another 162, I don’t want to do that.” He adds that he’s looking forward to spending time with his young family and is already an assistant coach with his daughter’s softball team.
Now 38 years old, Lowrie was the No. 45 overall draft pick by the Red Sox back in 2005. The Stanford product reached the Majors three years after being drafted, hitting .258/.339/.400 in 81 games as a rookie with the Sox in 2008. He spent parts of four seasons in Boston before being traded to the Astros in exchange for reliever Mark Melancon.
That stop in Houston wound up being for just one year, as the Astros traded Lowrie to the A’s on the heels of a solid .244/.331/.438 showing and netted Brad Peacock, Chris Carter and Max Stassi in that swap. He’d spend the next two seasons in Oakland, performing at a high level (.272/.334/.405) before reaching free agency and signing back with the Astros. In a full deja vu sequence, Lowrie spent one season in Houston and was traded to Oakland a second time — this time in exchange for righty Brendan McCurry.
Lowrie spent the next three seasons in green and gold, culminating with a 2018 All-Star season that saw him club a career-best 23 home runs. That standout campaign helped Oakland secure a postseason berth, though the 2018 A’s fell to the Yankees in the one-game Wild Card format. Lowrie went on to ink an ill-fated two-year deal with the Mets, with whom he was limited to just nine games due to ongoing knee troubles. Lowrie reached free agency and once again signed with the A’s, making good on a minor league deal and reemerging as the team’s regular second baseman. He signed one final deal with Oakland for the 2022 season but was limited to just 50 games.
Overall, Lowrie spent parts of seven seasons in Oakland, four in Boston, two in Houston and two in New York (though he was on the injured list for the bulk of that time). He’ll retire as a career .257/.330/.406 hitter (103 wRC+) with 121 home runs, 292 doubles, 17 triples, 590 runs scored, 594 runs batted in and eight stolen bases. He made an All-Star team and reached the postseason in six of his 15 seasons as a big leaguer.
Given his obvious talent, he’d surely have further padded those totals had he been able to avoid the injured list with more regularity, but health troubles followed him throughout his career. Lowrie most notably was plagued by a torn ligament in his thumb, a capsule tear in his knee and a broken finger in his right hand, amid several other nagging injuries. It’s easy to wonder what might have been with better health, but Lowrie’s career was still valued nearly 20 wins above replacement, per FanGraphs, and just shy of 16 WAR per Baseball-Reference. He was regularly an average or better hitter when healthy, peaking with particularly big showings at the plate in 2010, 2013 and 2017-18. All told, he banked more than $60MM in salary over the course of his career and will be remembered particularly fondly for his time in Oakland.
What’s next for Lowrie isn’t clear, but he tells Slusser that he “loves the game too much” to simply ride off into the sunset. Lowrie adds that he has a “deep-rooted obsession with seeing the game continue to evolve, continue to get better, continue to promote participation and see it thrive because it’s the best game in the world.” Best wishes to Lowrie in whatever path he takes in the next step of what sounds like a lifelong baseball journey.
Jose Altuve To Miss About Two Months Due To Thumb Surgery
March 22: Brown today informed reporters, including Rome, that Altuve’s surgery has now taken place. The estimated timeline is two months before Altuve can resume baseball activities.
March 19: Astros general manager Dana Brown informed reporters, including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle, that second baseman Jose Altuve has a fractured right thumb and will undergo surgery in the “coming days.” There is no timetable for his return. Altuve left last night’s game in the World Baseball Classic after being hit on the hand by a pitch. Marly Rivera of ESPN had previously relayed that Altuve had indeed suffered a fracture, as feared.
The news obviously comes as a big blow to the defending World Series champions, as Altuve has been a cornerstone of the team for years. Not only has he been reliable in his excellent performance, but he’s also never really dealt with a significant injury until now. Over the past ten full seasons, going back to 2012, Altuve has never played fewer than 124 games in an individual campaign. That low tally came in 2019, when a hamstring strain sent him to the injured list for just over a month. Apart from that, all his trips to the IL have been fairly minor, meaning he is now likely facing the most lengthy absence of his career. Though the club hasn’t provided a timetable for Altuve’s return, there’s no doubt that he’s facing a significant absence. Bryce Harper suffered a thumb fracture last year and ended up missing two months of the season. Every injury and recovery is different, but it would be reasonable to expect a similar path ahead for the Astros second baseman.
Altuve, 33 in May, has been one of the better players in the league in that time but is coming off one of his best seasons to date. He hit 28 home runs, stole 18 bases and walked in a career-high 10.9% of his trips to the plate. His .300/.387/.533 batting line resulted in a 164 wRC+, a career-high figure that indicated he was 64% better than the league average hitter. Defensive metrics were split on the value of his glovework, but he was still ranked as being worth 6.6 wins above replacement by FanGraphs, his highest tally in that department since the infamous sign-stealing season of 2017.
The exact date of his return will depend upon how long it takes to heal and then how much time he needs to get back into game shape after his layoff, but it seems like it will be a decent chunk of the schedule either way. While Altuve figures to be back for the latter months of the season, the club will have to figure out how to man the keystone for the time being. Mauricio Dubón, David Hensley and Rylan Bannon are the options on the 40-man roster, while Dixon Machado is in camp as a non-roster invitee.
Dubón is the most experienced of the bunch, having played in 262 games at the big league level. He’s capable of playing each outfield position and the three infield spots to the left of first base, and is generally considered to be a good defender anywhere he’s placed. The problem is on offense, as he’s hit just .244/.287/.366 in his career for a wRC+ of 77. It’s a fairly similar story for Machado, who is considered solid with the glove at shortstop, second or third base, but has hit just .226/.285/.292 in the majors for a wRC+ of 56. He’s not currently on the 40-man and won’t be optionable if he’s selected at some point. Hensley had a great debut last year, but in a tiny sample of just 16 games. He was also good in Triple-A, however, hitting .298/.420/.478 over 104 games last year. Bannon has just five MLB games under his belt but has bounced around the waiver wire in the past year due to strong work in the minors.
That group gives the Astros plenty of options but none of them will be expected to replace the production of Altuve. It’s also possible that the club could look outside the organization for some help, but there are challenges to doing that at this time of year. The free agent market has been largely picked over, leaving veteran journeymen like Andrelton Simmons and Jonathan Villar as some of the best options available. Trades are also difficult to line up at this time of year, with most teams generally feeling settled with their rosters as Opening Day approaches. Perhaps the Yankees would be willing to deal Isiah Kiner-Falefa or Gleyber Torres with youngsters like Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza pushing for more playing time, but they might also prefer to hang onto those players just in case the younger guys struggle in their first extended tastes of major league action. As Spring Training winds down, teams will make their final cuts and a few more players will shake loose, though they might not be huge difference makers relative to the in-house options in Houston.
However the club decides to play things, they will no doubt be in a lesser position at second base for a while. They will surely still be in good shape overall, with a lineup of great hitters like Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, José Abreu and Yordan Alvarez. They have incredibly made it to the ALCS in each of the past six years, going to the World Series in four of those seasons and winning it twice. They seem poised to be strong yet again, but they will now be challenged by a couple of notable absences in the early going, as Lance McCullers Jr. will open the season on the injured list as well.
Rockies Sign Jurickson Profar
March 21: The Rockies officially announced today that they have signed Profar to a one-year deal. To open a spot on the 40-man roster, left-hander Lucas Gilbreath was transferred to the 60-day injured list. The southpaw underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this month and will miss the entire season.
March 19: The Rockies are in agreement with free agent outfielder Jurickson Profar, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Profar will be guaranteed $7.75MM but can get the total up to $8.75MM with 400 plate appearances. The deal is pending a physical.
Profar, 30, has had an up-and-down career but is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Though his power is fairly modest, he has a good eye and strong bat-to-ball skills. His 11.1% walk rate and 15.7% strikeout rate this year were both a few percentage points better than league averages. Along with his 15 home runs, that led to a .243/.331/.391 batting line and a 110 wRC+, indicating the switch-hitter was 10% better than the league average hitter overall.
Defensively, though he’s played all over the diamond in his career, the Padres kept him exclusively in left field last year. That consistency may have suited him, as he was given a +2 grade from Defensive Runs Saved and a +1.1 from Ultimate Zone Rating, though Outs Above Average was less enthused and gave him a mark of -5. Taking his whole season together, FanGraphs considered him to be worth 2.5 wins above replacement, the highest tally of his career thus far.
Going into the 2021 season, the Padres had signed Profar to a three-year, $21MM deal that afforded him the opportunity to opt out after each season. The first year of the deal didn’t go well, as Profar hit just four homers while being bounced around the field in a utility capacity. He declined to trigger his first opt-out and stuck with the Friars for 2022, before having a much better campaign in the second year. Going into the 2022-23 offseason, he had just one year remaining on his deal, valued at $7.5MM. He decided to go for the $1MM buyout and become a free agent, leaving $6.5MM on the table.
Profar continued to linger on the open market for months, the last of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents that was still available until now. Recent reporting had suggested he had been trying to get $10MM per season, but that apparently didn’t materialize based on the fact that he remained unattached for so long. He’ll now settle for a deal a bit below that, though he’ll still end up making a bit more money than if he had just stayed with the Padres.
For the Rockies, they have some question marks in their outfield, as Sean Bouchard recently underwent biceps surgery that could keep him out all year while Randal Grichuk is going to miss the first few weeks of the season due to sports hernia surgery. That leaves Kris Bryant, Yonathan Daza and Charlie Blackmon as the primary options, though Blackmon made more starts at designated hitter last year and seems likely to do the same going forward, especially considering that his 2022 was ended by knee surgery. Daza should have center field spoken for until Grichuk returns, at which point they could split the duties there as they did in 2022. Like Profar, Bryant settled in as a full-time left fielder last year, despite lengthy time on the infield earlier in his career. When Grichuk went down earlier in the spring, Bryant began spending more time in right, per Thomas Harding of MLB.com. That seems to suggest that he could yield left to Profar while splitting right field and the designated hitter spot with Blackmon. Bryant was limited by injury to only 42 games last year, making it sensible to add another corner outfielder into the mix and perhaps reduce his workload on the grass a bit. Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette reports that the plan is indeed for Bryant to be in right with Blackmon primarily serving as the designated hitter.
Though Profar is coming off a decent year, there’s still some risk here for the Rockies, given his inconsistency. Once one of the top prospects in the sport, shoulder injuries kept him from appearing in the big leagues at all in 2014 or 2015. In the next two campaigns, he was healthy but struggled to establish himself in sporadic playing time. He finally had a decent season in 2018 but the Rangers quickly sold high, trading him to Oakland. Unfortunately, he seemed to battle “the yips” with his new team, as he made 11 throwing errors from second base in 2019 and got flipped to San Diego. He was solid enough in the shortened 2020 campaign to earn himself a three-year deal but, as mentioned, struggled in the first before rebounding in the second.
The Rockies will be hoping that another year of having a consistent left field position will allow him to be less mercurial at the plate. It’s also possible that playing in Coors Field will suit him well, given the famously thin atmosphere and large outfield. Perhaps those conditions will allow Profar to launch a few more home runs or simply spray the ball all over the outfield, given his low-strikeout approach. With just 11 days until Opening Day, it might be fair to expect that a player signing now would need a spring ramp-up and wouldn’t be ready for Opening Day. However, Profar might be a different case since he was recently representing the Netherlands in the World Baseball Classic.
The Rockies were already running a franchise-high payroll and this deal will nudge them a bit further into that territory. Roster Resource now pegs their spending at $170MM for the season, well beyond their previous high of $145MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. However, it’s possible that the final tally ends up below that, as most observers aren’t expecting the Rockies to be contenders this year. Players like Profar, Grichuk and C.J. Cron are impending free agents and make decent salaries, perhaps leading to them becoming trade chips this summer if the Rockies don’t become surprise competitors. Then again, the Rockies have also surprised many onlookers, and their own players, by their lack of trade deadline activity, so that’s no guarantee.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Braves Option Vaughn Grissom, Braden Shewmake
The Braves will option infielders Vaughn Grissom and Braden Shewmake to Triple-A, reports Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Both had been in line for the Opening Day shortstop job in Atlanta, but it seems that will now go to Orlando Arcia. David O’Brien of The Athletic relays that Arcia will get the starting gig with Ehire Adrianza as the utility infielder. Adrianza is not currently on the 40-man roster. The Braves subsequently announced the moves as part of a larger batch of roster cuts, including outfielders Jordan Luplow, Eli White and right-hander Nick Anderson.
The Braves went into this offseason with a shortstop vacancy for the first time in years, as Dansby Swanson has held down that job since late 2016. Swanson reached free agency this offseason and was considered one of the “Big Four” shortstops, alongside Carlos Correa, Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts. Despite that robust class of shortstops, Atlanta seemingly had little interest in either re-signing Swanson or going after anyone else. Eventually, the offseason came and went with the club’s big move being the trade for catcher Sean Murphy, who was later extended.
It seemed the club was satisfied with its internal shortstop options, with Grissom and Arcia the favorites for the role. Grissom had made his debut last year when he was just 21 years old, largely filling in at second base for the injured Ozzie Albies. He hit well in his first 156 plate appearances, producing a batting line of .291/.353/.440 for a wRC+ of 121. However, that may have been buoyed by a red hot start, as he hit .347/.398/.558 through September 7 but just .174/.264/.196 after.
Nonetheless, it was an encouraging start for such a young player and the club seemed to be a big believer in his abilities. Though he largely played second in his MLB debut, he was a shortstop in the minors. But that didn’t mean moving back to the other side of the bag was an obvious choice, as prospect evaluators had long raised questions about his ability to stick at short. It seems the club decided it was worth pursuing regardless of those concerns, as they tasked coach Ron Washington with working on Grissom’s shortstop defense this offseason. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos discussed the situation in January, after Swanson had signed with the Cubs.
“I can see how the scouting community might have questions about Vaughn. I had questions about Vaughn when I first saw him,” Anthopoulos said (link via Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). “And I’ve been wrong plenty of times. The difference is we have a guy in Ron Washington who’s unbelievable with this stuff. He wouldn’t just say something to say it. … And, look, we don’t know how Vaughn’s going to hit. He’s got to earn the job. Orlando Arcia can do it, too. But Wash really believes in Vaughn. We believe in Vaughn, too, but we’re going to go with who we think the expert in that area is, and I don’t know anybody better in the game than Ron.”
For most of the winter, it seemed it would be a two-horse race for the job between Grissom and Arcia, but there was a late charge from Shewmake. It was reported just yesterday that Shewmake’s hot spring was making things interesting. His prospect profile was essentially the inverse of Grissom’s, as his glovework is graded much stronger than his bat. But he hit .323/.382/.452 in spring action and seemed to give himself some momentum to take the job.
However, it now seems that neither of the youngsters will get the job, at least here at the end of spring. With Grissom and Shewmake both getting optioned today, it seems they’ve decided to go with the veteran in Arcia. Though he is more established, with 642 games of major league experience, there’s still risk with the 28-year-old. He’s coming off a fairly solid season as the club’s utility infielder, hitting .244/.316/.416 for a wRC+ of 104. However, the rest of his work at the plate is less impressive, as he had hit .242/.293/.363 coming into the year for a wRC+ of 70. He also hasn’t had a full-time shortstop gig since 2019, when defensive metrics gave him poor reviews and he was pushed into a utility role over the past three years.
This is merely a temporary move and the club could quickly call up Grissom or Shewmake early on in the season. However, it’s still a surprising result given the club’s recent history. They’ve shown a strong willingness to be aggressive with their young players, with both Grissom and Michael Harris II skipping Triple-A last year, going straight from Double-A to the bigs. The club then avoided free agents all winter, seeming to have little interest in either the marquee players or even a modest deal for someone like Elvis Andrus. It seems they’ve decided Grissom and Shewmake need more time and are now left with Arcia as their top option at short, at least for the time being.
The move could have service time implications for the younger players, as Shewmake’s clock has yet to start ticking and Grissom has a tally of 57 days. Whether either of them can reach the one-year mark this season will depend upon how long they eventually spend in the minors. It’s possible to earn a full year of service time even while spending time in the minors if a youngster finishes in the top two of Rookie of the Year balloting, but they also have to appear at least two preseason Top 100 prospect lists at Baseball America, ESPN or MLB Pipeline. Neither Grissom or Shewmake are on any of those three lists at the moment.
With Arcia securing the starting gig, Adrianza will apparently need to be added to the roster to take the backup infield job. He hit just .175/.264/.206 last year but is capable of playing any position other than catcher.
Turning to the other moves, Luplow and White were both in contention for a job backing up the starting outfield trio of Ronald Acuña Jr., Eddie Rosario and Harris. They seem to have been bumped out of that contest, at least for Opening Day. That perhaps will allow Sam Hilliard and Kevin Pillar to secure jobs on the bench. Nick Anderson was in the running for a bullpen job but will start the season in the minors.
Atlanta will need to make some roster moves in the wake of all this, but they may have already gotten a head start on that. Neither of Adrianza or Pillar are on the roster and it looks like the fifth starter job will go to one of Dylan Dodd or Jared Shuster, with neither of them being on the roster either. However, they recently opened a couple of spots when they lost Dennis Santana on waivers to the Twins and outrighted Jackson Stephens. They can also open a couple more by transferring Huascar Ynoa and Tyler Matzek to the 60-day IL, with both pitchers likely out for the season due to Tommy John surgery.
Jose Altuve Leaves WBC Game After Hit By Pitch
9:43PM: The “initial concern” is that Altuve had suffered a broken right thumb, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets, but it isn’t confirmed if this is Altuve’s actual injury.
8:56PM: According to Astros GM Dana Brown, Altuve’s injury is to his right hand. The second baseman is undergoing tests now, and the Astros will have more information on Sunday. (Hat tip to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle.)
8:48PM: Jose Altuve was removed during the fifth inning of tonight’s United States/Venezuela World Baseball Classic game after being hit on the right hand with a pitch. The 95.9 mph sinker from Daniel Bard sailed up and in, catching Altuve and knocking the second baseman to the ground. Altuve was in visible discomfort as he left the field, with a team trainer supporting Altuve’s right hand and wrist area.
More will be known about the nature of the injury once an official announcement is made to media, and a more in-depth diagnosis won’t be known until Altuve undergoes tests and imaging. Regardless of the outcome of tonight’s game for Venezuela, it would certainly appear as though Altuve has played his last game of the 2023 WBC, as the Astros will undoubtedly want their longtime star back in camp for fuller examination of the injury.
With Edwin Diaz‘s knee surgery still lingering in the public consciousness, it would be devastating to see another marquee name lost due to another significant injury in WBC play. A hand or wrist issue may not carry the potentially season-ending weight of Diaz’s knee injury, but the worst-case scenario of a fracture or outright break could still mean a lengthy absence for Altuve.
Altuve continues to excel as he approaches his 13th Major League season, as he hit .300/.387/.533 with 28 homers in 2022 while helping the Astros capture their second World Series championship. With eight All-Star appearances and the 2017 AL MVP Award, Altuve has become the face of this golden era of Astros baseball, and one of the sport’s most prominent names.
Houston’s bench depth was already something of a question mark given the relative lack of big league experience on hand, and that could become an even more glaring problem if Altuve is out of action. Utilityman Aledmys Diaz signed with the A’s in free agency, and Houston was expected to use David Hensley and Mauricio Dubon as the primary utilitymen this season. Rylan Bannon was also claimed off waivers from the Tigers and Dixon Machado is in camp on a minor league deal, but in the event that Altuve faces a long absence, the Astros might be quickly scouring the market for any free agents available now, or who might enter the market as teams make their final spring cuts.