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Apply To Join The MLB Trade Rumors TikTok Team

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We are assembling a team of people to post to our new MLB Trade Rumors TikTok account.  The gig will also involve posting to YouTube Shorts.

The initial goal is to try a bunch of stuff on these platforms and see what works.  The videos we post will be related to MLB trades and free agency and the articles we post on MLBTR, but I’m open-minded as to how that will look.  The pay will be on a per-video basis.  Here’s what we’re looking for:

  • Experience using and posting to TikTok and YouTube Shorts
  • Familiarity with the different formats available on these platforms
  • Familiarity with the vibes and best/common practices on these platforms
  • Ability to shoot a video on your phone and use the tools provided by TikTok and YouTube Shorts to edit
  • Ability to create videos on the fly.  Our process will evolve, but when major news breaks, the first available team member to claim the story will be the one to create the video.
  • Creativity to come up with content ideas when there is not breaking news
  • Comfort on camera
  • Strong knowledge of MLB and hot stove concepts.  We will email a set of questions to select applicants as a test.

If you are interested in joining the MLBTR TikTok Team, please email mlbtrhelp@gmail.com and explain your qualifications.

Orioles Sign Charlie Morton

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The Orioles announced they’ve signed Charlie Morton to a one-year deal. It’s reportedly a $15MM guarantee for the Wasserman client. Baltimore designated catcher René Pinto for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot.

Morton, who turned 41 in November, joins the sixth team of his career in what’ll be his 18th MLB season. The two-time All-Star has spent the past four seasons with the Braves, where he combined for a 3.87 ERA over 124 starts. While Morton’s production has dipped slightly over the past couple years, he has avoided the kind of dramatic drop-off one might expect from a pitcher in his 40s.

The righty took the ball 30 times and worked to a 4.19 earned run average across 165 1/3 innings last year. He reached 30 starts and surpassed 160 frames in all four seasons during his late-career run in Atlanta. Morton struck out 23.8% of opposing hitters against a slightly elevated 9.3% walk rate. The strikeout rate was his lowest since his 2017 breakout in Houston but remained a couple points above the league average for starting pitchers.

Morton hasn’t lost much velocity despite his age. His fastball averaged 94 MPH last year, a tick below where it had been for the prior three seasons. His primary offering, his curveball, landed at its customary 81.5 MPH on average. Morton continues to generate elite spin and generally strong results against the breaking pitch. Opponents hit .200 against the curveball last season.

In aggregate, Morton’s 2024 production was that of a solid fourth starter. He ran into some trouble in the second half, though. Morton allowed 4.37 earned runs per nine while giving up a lofty .279/.357/.469 batting line after the All-Star Break. Morton rebounded in September following a shaky August, while his strikeout and walk marks held steady throughout the season.

Atlanta, seemingly working with strict budget limits, never appeared interested in keeping Morton for a fifth season. There’s annual speculation that he could retire, but it became clear last month that he planned to return for another year. The Athletic’s David O’Brien has written that Morton wanted to sign with a team that played Spring Training near his Bradenton, Florida home. The Orioles qualify. Their complex is in Sarasota. Morton won’t be as close to home as he’d been in Georgia once the regular season begins, but that’s evidently less of a concern than the Spring Training geography.

Morton is Baltimore’s second veteran rotation addition of the winter. His signing comes three weeks after the O’s inked 35-year-old Japanese star Tomoyuki Sugano to a one-year, $13MM contract. Both pitchers project as durable back-end starters at this stage of their careers. The Orioles needed to add to their rotation behind Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez. Sugano and Morton each make sense in isolation, but neither brings anywhere near the upside they lost when Corbin Burnes walked.

The offseason is halfway complete. Baltimore has been tied to Jack Flaherty, the best unsigned starter. They’re an obvious fit for potential trade candidates like Luis Castillo and Dylan Cease. There’s no guarantee this is their final move. Through the offseason’s first couple months, however, they’ve shied away from making the kind of splash that many in the fanbase anticipated under new owner David Rubenstein. In addition to the rotation acquisitions, they signed outfielder Tyler O’Neill to a three-year deal that guaranteed just under $50MM and brought in Gary Sánchez as a backup catcher/designated hitter on an $8.5MM signing.

Eflin, Rodriguez, Morton and Sugano form the top four in Brandon Hyde’s rotation for now. Dean Kremer projects as the fifth starter. Albert Suárez, Trevor Rogers, and younger pitchers Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott are behind them. They’re building decent depth but arguably still need an impact arm to slot at the top of the staff.

Pinto, 28, was claimed off waivers from the Rays at the start of the offseason. He’s out of options and can’t be sent to Triple-A without clearing waivers. His spot on the 40-man roster seemed tenuous after the Sánchez pickup. Baltimore will have five days to trade him or put him back on the waiver wire. Pinto hit .231/.263/.404 in 82 major league games with Tampa Bay between 2022-24.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported the $15MM salary. Image courtesy of Imagn.

Dodgers Sign Hyeseong Kim

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With hours left to go before his posting window closes, Hyeseong Kim and the Dodgers signed a three-year contract worth $12.5MM. The deal includes a two-year club option (which would need to be exercised together) covering the 2028-29 seasons. If the Dodgers exercise the option, they’d pay an additional $9.5MM over those two years. Los Angeles designated catcher Diego Cartaya for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot. Kim is represented by CAA Sports.

Kim’s former team, the Kiwoom Heroes, officially posted him on December 5, giving him until 4:00 PM CT this afternoon to sign with an MLB club. As the days ticked by and the rumor mill remained relatively quiet, it seemed like a legitimate possibility that Kim would return for one more season with the Heroes. Instead, the Dodgers, who hadn’t been closely linked to Kim this winter, swooped in and made a winning offer in the nick of time. In addition to Kim’s salary, the Dodgers will have to pay a $2.5MM release fee to the Heroes (20% of the guaranteed $12.5MM on his deal). Their total investment is $15MM.

Kim, soon to be 26, is a four-time consecutive winner of the KBO Golden Glove Award, given annually to the best overall player at each position. He won the award at shortstop in 2021 before moving to second base and winning each year from 2022-24. In addition to playing a strong second base and at least a capable shortstop, Kim is also an asset on the basepaths. He led the KBO in stolen bases in 2021 and has swiped at least 20 bags in all seven full seasons of his career. His glove and legs should give him a relatively high floor as a utility player in MLB, if nothing more.

The big question is how Kim’s bat will hold up against MLB pitching. While he struggled at the plate early in his career, the lefty batter blossomed into a well-above-average hitter during his last three years in the KBO. From 2022-24, he produced a .326 batting average and a .384 OBP, while his wRC+ was never below 118 in any season. However, Kim has never hit for much power, even by the slightly lower power standards of the KBO. His 2024 season was the best of his career power-wise – he reached double-digit home runs for the first time – but his .132 isolated power was still below league average.  Thus, it’s fair to worry that Kim might not have the necessary power to be an everyday player in MLB. Just look at his former KBO teammate Ha-Seong Kim. Ha-Seong Kim was a genuine power threat in the KBO, socking 30 homers in 138 games during his final season in Korea. Since coming to MLB, he has become known as a soft-hitting contact specialist. His career .137 ISO in MLB is 15% worse than the league average over the last four years.

When MLBTR ranked Hyseong Kim at no. 26 on our Top 50 Free Agents list, we predicted he’d sign a three-year, $24MM contract. His actual deal guarantees him a little more than half of that predicted salary. That said, it’s worth mentioning that Kim reportedly turned down more money from at least one other team. A representative from Kim’s agency, CAA Baseball, told a Korean media outlet (passed along by Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News) that the Angels offered him a five-year, $28MM deal, while the Mariners, Cubs, and Padres also made offers with undisclosed terms. Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register contradicts that report. According to Fletcher, the Angels made an offer to Kim but did not top what he received from the Dodgers.

To that point, Kim might not have a guaranteed starting role in L.A. The Dodgers already have Gavin Lux to play second base, Mookie Betts at shortstop, and Max Muncy holding down the hot corner. Furthermore, they have the talented defensive shortstop Miguel Rojas and the versatile Chris Taylor on the bench. Center fielder Tommy Edman can also play all around the infield.

According to Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, Kim will play a “super-utility role” in 2025. The use of the prefix “super” seems to imply that he’ll be playing several positions. While he has significant experience at both shortstop and second base, he has only played a handful of games at third base in his professional career. He also played 44 games in left field during the 2020 season, and it will be interesting to see if the Dodgers consider using him in the outfield at all. As a “super-utility” player, Kim will presumably have a bigger role than that of a typical bench bat, but with so much competition on the Dodgers’ talent-filled roster, he’ll have to earn his playing time.

The fact that the Dodgers signed Kim despite already having so many infielders is evidence of how much this team values depth and flexibility. It’s also a sign of how much they value what Kim can bring to the table. Funnily enough, manager Dave Roberts has already made his team’s affinity for Kim quite clear. After the Dodgers played an exhibition match against the Korean national team last March, Roberts told reporters (including Yoo), “Our scouts like the second baseman: just the way his body moves.” That second baseman, of course, was Kim.

Various reports out of South Korea were first with the news that Kim was signing with Los Angeles on a three-year deal with a two-year club option. Jon Heyman of the New York Post was first to report the $12.5MM guarantee and the $22MM maximum value.

Dodgers Re-Sign Teoscar Hernandez

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The Dodgers have brought Teoscar Hernández back on a three-year deal. The Republik Sports client is reportedly guaranteed $66MM, including a $23MM signing bonus. There is $23.5MM in deferred money, while the deal includes a $15MM team option (or a $6.5MM buyout) for the 2028 season. He’ll receive a $10MM salary next season, $7.5MM of which is deferred. Another $8MM of his respective $12MM and $14.5MM salaries for 2026 and ’27 are also deferred. The deferrals reportedly reduce the contract’s net present value to roughly $58.1MM.

Hernández, 32, gets the three-year deal he’d been seeking. The slugger had called returning to the Dodgers a priority after a huge first season with the team. Hernández slashed .272/.339/.501 with 33 homers across 652 plate appearances. He carried that strong production into the postseason, hitting three longballs with a .250/.352/.417 slash over 16 games to help the Dodgers secure their second championship in five years.

This was the ideal outcome for a player on a pillow contract. Hernández had reached free agency last winter on the heels of a middling season in Seattle. He had turned in a .258/.305/.435 slash over 678 plate appearances as a Mariner. As a result, Hernández didn’t find the lucrative long-term offer he’d been seeking. While the Red Sox offered him a two-year deal that would’ve come with a $28MM guarantee, he signed for one season on a deferred $23.5MM salary with the goal of reestablishing his market value.

It couldn’t have worked out much better for either side. Hernández had one of the best seasons of his career. He earned his second All-Star nod and Silver Slugger award while picking up down ballot MVP votes for the third time. Hernández established a new career high in home runs with rate stats that were in line with his best years in Toronto. He was an instrumental part of a championship roster.

The down year in 2023 looks like an anomaly. He’s hardly the only veteran hitter to struggle in Seattle’s extremely pitcher-friendly home park. Hernández has been an impact hitter in each of the other four seasons since his breakout in 2020. Over the past five years, he owns a .274/.328/.493 batting line in nearly 2700 trips to the plate. There’ll be a decent number of strikeouts, but few players hit the ball as hard as he does. Hernández is an annual threat for 30+ doubles and at least 25-30 homers.

Hernández was the only key offensive player whom the Dodgers feared losing in free agency. He’ll return to join Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Max Muncy, Tommy Edman and Gavin Lux in a loaded offense. The Dodgers added Michael Conforto on a one-year, $17MM contract at the Winter Meetings. No other team rivals the potency of the L.A. lineup.

The Dodgers are taking on some risk from a defensive perspective. Despite plus arm strength and surprisingly strong athleticism, Hernández has never graded as a good defender. That continued this season. Defensive Runs Saved felt he was three runs below par in his 1308 combined innings between the corner outfield spots. Statcast rated him much more harshly, estimating he was 11 runs below average.

Hernández isn’t likely to improve on a contract that runs through age 34. An ideal landing spot would’ve allowed him to move to designated hitter in year two or three. That’s not an option on a team with Ohtani. The Dodgers are moving Betts to shortstop and will have Hernández and Conforto flanking Edman in the outfield. They’ll accept a mediocre defensive unit for the chance to stack with the lineup with good hitters.

Adding Conforto and re-signing Hernández blocks the path to everyday at-bats for youngsters Andy Pages and James Outman. The latter feels like a change of scenery candidate after a disappointing second MLB season. The Dodgers will probably be less inclined to move the 24-year-old Pages, who had a league average .248/.305/.407 showing as a rookie. He still has a minor league option remaining, so they could start him in Triple-A if they don’t want to limit him to fourth outfield work.

Pages doesn’t have anything else to prove in the minors, but the Dodgers have the resources to continue loading up. Other teams figure to at least try to pull him away via trade, though L.A. could prefer to hold him as a replacement for Conforto after next season. Signing Blake Snell and retaining Blake Treinen earlier in the winter leaves the Dodgers without any clear holes on the roster.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Hernández would receive a three-year deal at $60MM. He’ll land slightly above that forecast in raw money, though the deferrals will reduce the net present value to a hair below it. A three-year, $66MM deal without deferrals would have come with a $22MM competitive balance tax hit. Hernández’s number ends up around $19.4MM.

Including Hernández, RosterResource calculates the Dodgers’ luxury tax number around $353MM. They’re well beyond the $301MM mark that represents the final tier of penalization. They’re taxed at a 110% rate on the final AAV. Re-signing Hernández will likely cost them upwards of $40MM next year after taxes. The Dodgers have been undeterred by the CBT as they push for a repeat.

Hernández had declined a qualifying offer. Other teams would have needed to forfeit a draft choice to sign him. The Dodgers only relinquish the right to receive a 2025 compensation pick, which would have come after the fourth round. The Blue Jays and Red Sox had also been linked to Hernández this winter. Those clubs (especially Toronto) could turn to Anthony Santander, who stands as the clear top unsigned outfielder. Jurickson Profar is a tier or two below that as the next-best outfield bat.

Yancen Pujols first reported that Hernández and the Dodgers were finalizing a three-year, $66MM deal. Chris Cotillo of MassLive confirmed there was an agreement in place. ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the $15MM option for 2028, as well as the signing bonus and the approximate $23MM in deferrals. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reported the salary and deferral breakdown. Jon Heyman of the New York Post had the final NPV.

Image courtesy of Imagn.

Nationals Re-Sign Trevor Williams

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The Nationals officially announced the re-signing of Trevor Williams to a two-year free agent deal. It’s reportedly a $14MM guarantee for the John Boggs & Associates client. The veteran right-hander turns 33 next April.

The last time Williams was a free agent, he signed a two-year, $13MM pact with Washington. Despite an uneven performance over the past two seasons, he showed enough upside to convince the club to bring him back on an almost identical deal. In 2023, the righty was an innings eater for the Nationals, providing them with 144 1/3 frames in 30 starts. It was the first time he passed the 100-inning threshold since 2019. However, there was little else to like about his performance. No NL pitcher (min. 140 IP) had a higher ERA than Williams that year. He also finished among the bottom five in strikeout rate, SIERA, and xERA. Things turned especially sour at the end of the year; he gave up 33 runs (32 earned) in 35 2/3 innings over his final eight starts.

The 2024 season was a completely different story. Williams got off to a red-hot start, pitching to a 2.22 ERA across 11 outings in April and May. Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to do the one thing he did well in 2023: stay on the field. A flexor muscle strain in his pitching arm kept him out for nearly four months from May to September. He continued to see great results in two starts upon his return (10 IP, 1 ER, 12 K), but he finished the year with just 13 starts and 66 2/3 innings under his belt.

Most of the underlying data indicates Williams wasn’t quite as dominant as he seemed on the surface. His .267 BABIP and 4.2% home run-to-fly ball ratios were well below his career averages, while his 80.2% left-on-base percentage was well above his typical rate. His 22.7% strikeout rate marked a significant improvement from the year before, but it was only a touch above league average for a starting pitcher. Thus, his 3.96 SIERA was significantly higher than his 2.03 ERA.

Regardless, Williams was still a productive starter when he was on the field, even if the peripheral numbers suggest he was more of a mid-rotation arm than an ace. If he can figure out how to combine the best parts of his 2023 and ’24 seasons, he will be well worth a $7MM annual salary over the next two seasons. Of course, it’s far from a guarantee that he’ll be able to do that. Williams has reached 30 starts just twice in his nine-year MLB tenure, and he came into the 2024 season with a career 4.48 ERA and 4.66 SIERA. He is also entering his mid-thirties. In theory, his excellent command should help him thrive as an older starter. Then again, he could be in real trouble if he loses any more velocity on his four-seam fastball. It was a valuable pitch in 2024, but at 88.9 mph, it’s already one of the slowest heaters in the league.

Williams will return to a Nationals rotation that also features de facto ace MacKenzie Gore, free agent acquisition (and project) Michael Soroka, and a handful of mid-to-back-end types who broke out for Washington last year: Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker, and DJ Herz. Top prospect Cade Cavalli will also factor into the equation, although Spencer Nusbaum of the Washington Post notes that the team will be monitoring Cavalli’s innings in 2025 and could option him to Triple-A to begin the year. Meanwhile, Josiah Gray is recovering from Tommy John surgery and will be out for most (if not all) of the 2025 campaign. It’s unclear how manager Dave Martinez will set up his rotation to begin the season, but barring an injury or a disastrous performance this spring, it feels safe to presume that Williams be one of the starting five (or six?) come Opening Day.

Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Athletic first reported the Nationals were re-signing Williams on a two-year, $14MM deal.

Yankees Sign Paul Goldschmidt

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The Yankees officially announced the signing of Paul Goldschmidt to a one-year contract. The Excel Sports Management client is reportedly guaranteed $12.5MM.

Nightengale describes the Yankees’ pursuit of Goldschmidt this week as aggressive, though he notes they were also in talks with Christian Walker before he signed with the Astros. Carlos Santana was another first baseman New York reportedly considered. The Yankees had also been linked to Pete Alonso earlier in the offseason, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that they were “increasingly likely” to opt for a less expensive first base signing.

Indeed, Goldschmidt’s $12.5MM salary is well below the three-year, $60MM guarantee Walker received from Houston and the five-year, $125MM deal MLBTR predicted for Alonso. It’s also below the one-year, $15MM pact we predicted for Goldschmidt when we ranked him at no. 35 on our Top 50 Free Agents list.

Goldschmidt, 37, was a free agent for the first time in his career. Drafted by the Diamondbacks in 2009, he made his big league debut with Arizona in 2011. After a strong start to his MLB career, he signed an extension with the D-backs that kept him under team control through the 2019 season. Upon being traded to the Cardinals in 2019, he signed another extension that ran through 2024. Through those years with Arizona and St. Louis, Goldschmidt was one of the best players in baseball. He made seven All-Star teams, won five Silver Sluggers, and earned NL MVP honors in 2022. Over 1928 career games, he has slashed .289/.381/.510 with 362 home runs and a 139 wRC+.

Since his MVP season in 2022, Goldschmidt has taken a few steps back. His .810 OPS and 122 wRC+ in 2023 were more good than great, while his .716 OPS and 100 wRC+ in 2024 were merely league average. That’s not an encouraging trend for a first baseman entering his late thirties. However, Goldschmidt’s underlying numbers in 2024 offer a little more promise. His .308 batting average on balls in play was well below his career average of .343. Similarly, his .310 wOBA was noticeably worse than his .329 xwOBA. A .329 wOBA still would have been the worst of his career, but it also would have been significantly better than league average. Finally, Goldschmidt’s second-half performance was vastly superior to his first-half effort. Through the All-Star break, he was slashing .230/.291/.373 with an 87 wRC+. From the break onward, he hit .271/.319/.480 with a 120 wRC+.

The Yankees are surely hoping Goldschmidt looks like his second-half self throughout the 2025 season. However, even his mediocre full-season numbers would be a big upgrade over what the Yankees got from their first basemen in 2024. Yankees first basemen ranked last in MLB in OPS (.619), second-to-last in wRC+ (76), and 26th in FanGraphs WAR (-1.1). If Goldschmidt can simply repeat his 2024 campaign, the Yankees would get a big boost over the combination of Anthony Rizzo, Ben Rice, and DJ LeMahieu. That will be especially true against left-handed pitching. Goldschmidt slashed .295/.366/.473 with a 134 wRC+ against lefties this past season. Meanwhile, New York’s offense was significantly worse against lefties than righties. Goldschmidt should be a big help in that department.

On the defensive side, Goldschmidt, a four-time Gold Glove winner, will undoubtedly play first base for the Yankees. That will push recent trade acquisition Cody Bellinger into the outfield. It always seemed likely that Bellinger would play the outfield in New York, but manager Aaron Boone suggested earlier this week that first base was still an option. It’s safe to say that option is now off the table.

If the Yankees are still looking to add another bat, third base could be the next avenue they turn to for improvement. Jazz Chisholm Jr. took over at the hot corner after the trade deadline in 2024, but second base is his natural position. By sliding back to second, he could give the Yankees more flexibility to seek an upgrade in the infield. Some intriguing options at third base include free agent Alex Bregman and trade candidate Nolan Arenado. The Yankees have already expressed interest in both players.

Adding either Bregman or Arenado would likely push the team’s payroll above last year’s final estimate of $303MM (per RosterResource). It would also put them above the highest tier of the luxury tax once again. Although it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Yankees run such a high payroll in 2025, it’s worth keeping in mind that even the Steinbrenner’s have their spending limits. Chairman Hal Steinbrenner said earlier this year that the team’s current payroll is “simply not sustainable for us financially.” The fact that the Yankees were outbid for Juan Soto and that they were seeking a less expensive first baseman like Goldschmidt further suggests that GM Brian Cashman is working under payroll constraints. Those constraints could impact how the team operates for the rest of the offseason.

Jack Curry of the YES Network first reported the Yankees and Goldschmidt had agreed to a one-year deal. Bob Nightengale of USA Today was first on the salary.

Image courtesy of Imagn.

Diamondbacks Sign Corbin Burnes

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The Diamondbacks have officially announced their signing of Corbin Burnes to a six-year free agent deal. Burnes, a client of the Boras Corporation, is reportedly guaranteed $210MM and can opt out after two seasons. He’ll collect a $10MM signing bonus up front and is due $30MM salaries in the first two years. He’d need to weigh whether to leave the remaining four years and $140MM on the table after 2026. The contract reportedly includes roughly $60MM in deferred money and varying no-trade protection over the course of the deal.

The news is a shocking turn of events, as Burnes had garnered plenty of interest in free agency but had not been connected to Arizona at any point in the offseason. While some rumored suitors for the right-hander’s services such as the Yankees and Red Sox turned to alternative options for the front of their rotations by signing Max Fried and trading for Garrett Crochet respectively, a number of known interested parties remained in the mix. That included not only the incumbent Orioles but also the big-market Giants and Blue Jays, both of whom USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports offered Burnes a higher guarantee.

However, Burnes lives in Scottsdale, and playing close to home seems to have inspired the right-hander’s decision. According to Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic, Burnes was the one who approached the Diamondbacks “expressing a desire to pitch in Arizona.” John Gambadoro of 98.7FM Arizona Sports radio (multiple links to X) reports that the deal came together quickly, as talks between Burnes’ camp and the Snakes only started within the last three or four days. Diamondbacks chairman Ken Kendrick viewed signing Burnes as “too good of an opportunity to pass up,” as a source told Piecoro, and thus Kendrick okayed the biggest contract in franchise history.

Gambadoro writes that the contract contains “a significant amount of” deferred money, and a full no-trade clause covering just the 2025-26 seasons. If Burnes doesn’t opt out, Nightengale notes that Burnes’ no-trade protection is then limited to 14 teams over the final four seasons of the deal. Piecoro, meanwhile, goes into further detail regarding the deferred money. Per Piecoro, Burnes’s contract includes “a little north” of $60MM in deferred money, or between $10MM and $11MM per year deferred. Should Burnes decide to opt out following the 2026 campaign, the more than $20MM in deferred money accrued during the first two years of the deal would then need to be paid out within the following year.

Earlier this offseason, Blake Snell landed a $182MM guarantee from the Dodgers ahead of his age-32 season, and a look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker reveals that Zack Greinke, Max Scherzer, and Jacob deGrom have all signed free agent contracts that guaranteed nine figures ahead of their age-32 campaigns or older. Burnes’ deal falls short of his previously-reported goal of matching the $245MM guarantee the Nationals offered to right-hander Stephen Strasburg during the 2019-20 offseason.

By total guarantee, Burnes’ contract lands close to the seven-year, $200MM prediction that MLBTR made at the start of the offseason as part of our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, where Burnes ranked second in the class behind only Juan Soto. A closer look at the deal reveals that Burnes followed in the footsteps of virtually every other pitcher this winter, however, and landed a deal that exceeds expectations. The $35MM average annual value of the deal dwarfs the $28.57MM AAV predicted by MLBTR and even matches Strasburg, while the opt-out opportunity provides its own value in the form of flexibility.

For the Diamondbacks, it’s a massive financial outlay that beats out Greinke’s aforementioned six-year, $206.5MM deal for the largest guarantee in franchise history. Setting a club record for total guarantee in free agency would be noteworthy for any club, but it’s especially surprising coming from an Arizona team that previously indicated that they planned to run a payroll for 2025 that more or less matched their 2024 figure. As noted by RosterResource, Arizona spent just $173MM on payroll in 2024 and after signing Burnes are projected for a $194MM payroll in 2025. That hike of more than $20MM brings payroll to a completely unprecedented level for the franchise after setting a record for payroll just last year. It’s hardly a secret that the club is trying to move on from left-hander Jordan Montgomery on the trade market this winter, but even if the club manages to shed the majority of his salary they’ll have still put themselves into uncharted territory financially by signing Burnes.

That’s not to say the risk is a poor one to take, of course. Burnes established himself as among the league’s very best starters with Milwaukee during the shortened 2020 campaign, where he broke out to finish sixth in NL Cy Young award voting. He followed that performance up by going out and winning the award the following year, and the four-time All-Star has been on the shortlist for the game’s top rotation arms ever since. Over the past five seasons, Burnes ranks fifth among qualified MLB starters in innings pitched, second in fWAR, fourth in ERA, sixth in FIP, and third in strikeouts. Of course, much of that is due to a dominant 2021 season that saw Burnes lead the sport in ERA (2.43), FIP (1.69), and strikeout rate (35.6%).

Some red flags have emerged in the right-hander’s profile since then, as he’s started to go deeper into games at the expense of rate-basis dominance. His fastball velocity isn’t quite at the level it was during his Cy Young-winning campaign, and his strikeout rate has declined in each of the past five seasons until it ultimately fell to a roughly league average 23.1% this year. On the other hand, that relatively pedestrian figure started to tick back up towards the end of the season, when he struck out 27.7% of opponents faced in September. While he’s not quite matched the dominance of his otherworldly 2021 campaign in the years since, his 3.08 ERA and 3.49 FIP in 590 innings over the last three seasons ultimately still cast him as a starter who is clearly capable of fronting a playoff-caliber rotation.

He’ll be tasked with doing exactly that in Arizona this year, as the Diamondbacks appear to be all-in after narrowly missing the playoffs in 2024 despite winning more games than the 84-win 2023 club that managed to secure the NL pennant. Burnes will pair nicely with longtime club ace Zac Gallen at the front of the rotation, with veterans Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodríguez bringing up the middle. Brandon Pfaadt and Ryne Nelson represent intriguing options at the back of the club’s rotation, as will Montgomery if he’s not traded before the start of the season. Overall, the club’s rotation mix is among the most robust in the league at the moment on paper and should help to support an offense that lost both Joc Pederson and Christian Walker to free agency this winter. The front office swung a trade to land first baseman Josh Naylor in hopes of helping to plug that hole, but the club nonetheless seems likely to lean heavily on its internal youngsters like Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, and top prospect Jordan Lawlar at the plate in 2025.

It’s unclear what’s in store for the Diamondbacks going forward this winter given their unprecedented current payroll commitments. The club has long been known to be pining after help at the back of its bullpen this winter, with a trade for Ryan Helsley or signing Kirby Yates among the potential options the club has reportedly considered. Another hitter would also make sense for the club after losing both Walker and Pederson to free agency, preferably a right-handed bat to complement a heavily left-handed lineup. With that being said, it’s entirely possible that the club won’t have room to make additional moves of significance without first shedding salary in the form of Montgomery or another potential trade candidate.

Because Burnes turned down the Orioles’ qualifying offer, Baltimore will receive a compensatory pick after the first round of the 2025 draft. Gaining what currently stands as the 30th overall selection isn’t a bad consolation prize for the Orioles, but since they had designs on retaining Burnes themselves, the O’s are still on the lookout to add more frontline pitching to their rotation.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the D-Backs were signing Burnes to a six-year, $210MM deal with an opt-out after year two. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the signing bonus and the salaries for the first two seasons.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Rangers Sign Joc Pederson

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The Rangers have officially announced the signing of designated hitter Joc Pederson to a two-year deal with a mutual option for 2027. Pederson, a client of Excel Sports Management, can opt out of the contract after next season. He’s reportedly guaranteed $37MM.

Pederson, 32, has now signed his fifth consecutive contract that allows him to re-enter free agency after just one year. The slugger first reached free agency during the 2020-21 offseason and signed a one-year deal with the Cubs. He followed that up with a one-year deal with the Giants before accepting the Qualifying Offer from the club the following offseason, and most recently signed yet another one-year pact with the Diamondbacks last winter. His newest deal offers a bit more security, however, given that it comes with a player option for a second season.

The constant trips through free agency haven’t stopped Pederson from being one of the most productive lefty bats in the majors in recent years. Since making his second career All-Star appearance in 2022 as a member of the Giants, Pederson has slashed a fantastic .262/.365/.485 with a 135 wRC+. That figure leaves him with the 16th-highest wRC+ in baseball among qualified hitters over the past three seasons, and he’s sandwiched comfortably between Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jose Ramirez on that leaderboard.

Given that he’s provided superstar-caliber offense on the cheap to multiple teams in recent years, it may seem somewhat surprising for Pederson to wind up with yet another relatively short-term deal that guarantees him less than $20MM per year. That discrepancy is primarily due to Pederson’s extremely limited profile. While he’s a phenomenal hitter who rakes against right-handed pitching, his profile features a massive platoon split and he’s typically been at his best throughout his career when he sits against same-handed pitching as much as possible. He’s a career .210/.300/.330 (78 wRC+) hitter against left-handed pitching and even in the past three seasons has floated a pedestrian 104 wRC+ against southpaws.

Perhaps that on its own wouldn’t be enough to stop Pederson from getting a hefty contract in free agency, but he’s also a poor defender in the outfield who didn’t put on a glove a single time during his year in Arizona after starting just 23 games in the outfield in San Francisco the prior year. His last season as a regular on defense in 2022 saw Pederson struggle to a -11 Outs Above Average figure that landed him near the bottom of the league’s leaderboards. Even with prodigious hitting talent, Pederson’s earning power has been consistently limited on the open market due to relatively minimal upside available in signing a platoon bat who’s increasingly restricted to DH-only duties. With that context, Pederson actually did quite well in landing the deal he got from the Rangers; his $37MM guarantee significantly outpaces the two-year, $24MM pact MLBTR predicted he would land when placing him as the #24 free agent on our Top 50 MLB Free Agents list at the outset of the winter.

For the Rangers, the addition of Pederson offers some much-needed thump to a lineup that finished just 22nd in the majors with a 95 wRC+ last year. That includes utterly abysmal production at DH, where Texas managed just a 65 wRC+ that was second-worst in baseball ahead of only the Reds. The addition of Pederson not only adds another big lefty bat to the Rangers lineup to complement his former Dodgers teammate Corey Seager but also makes up for the loss of Nathaniel Lowe, who the club traded to the Nationals just last night. The additions of Pederson, Kyle Higashioka, and Jake Burger to the club’s lineup in conjunction with better health from youngsters Josh Jung and Evan Carter should give the Rangers a much stronger offense up and down the batting order while allowing the club to lean less heavily on utility man Josh Smith, who was one of the team’s top offensive contributors in the first half but faded to hit just .215/.265/.300 after the All-Star break.

With Pederson now in the fold, RosterResource projects the Rangers for a payroll of just under $217MM for 2025, and that figure jumps up to just over $229MM for luxury tax purposes. That leaves around $11MM left for the club to work with before the first luxury tax threshold, which it was reported earlier this winter that the club hopes to duck under next year. While the rotation was addressed by bringing back Nathan Eovaldi and the lineup appears to be in good shape at the moment, the club still appears to be a piece or two short in the bullpen even after adding Hoby Milner, Jacob Webb, and Robert Garcia. It’s possible the Rangers could look to follow the example they laid out in the deal that sent Lowe to D.C. in exchange for Garcia and deal a potential trade candidate like Leody Taveras, Dane Dunning, or Jon Gray in a deal that bolsters their relief corps while also freeing up payroll space that could help them land a proven closer such as Kirby Yates or David Robertson, both of whom pitched well for the Rangers in 2024 but elected free agency last month.

Now that Pederson is headed to Texas, a handful of other suitors will need to look elsewhere. The incumbent Diamondbacks reportedly had interest in a reunion with Pederson earlier this month, though it’s possible that the club’s recent trade for Josh Naylor eliminated that need and leaves them in position instead to look for some right-handed thump to replace outgoing first baseman Christian Walker. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays were connected to both Pederson and Naylor in the rumor mill and at this point could be further motivated to land a notable bat such as Anthony Santander or Teoscar Hernandez now that many of the club’s lower-level targets have come off the board.

Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News was first to report the Rangers and Pederson were discussing a contract. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal was first with the agreement. ESPN’s Buster Olney reported the two-year, $37MM guarantee and the opt-out.

Nationals Sign Josh Bell

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Josh Bell is heading back to Washington, as the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports that the first baseman has signed a one-year, $6MM deal with the Nationals.  The 32-year-old Bell is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Since Nathaniel Lowe was just acquired last week to be the Nats’ new everyday first baseman, Bell likely now slots in as the first-choice designated hitter.  Both the left-handed hitting Lowe and the switch-hitting Bell have pretty even career splits, but Bell could step in at first base every once in a while when Washington faces a left-handed pitcher, even though Lowe is a much better fielder.  As the DH, Bell’s switch-hitting bat also brings a bit more balance to a Nationals lineup that is heavy on lefty swingers.

In a career defined by major hot and cold streaks, Bell’s previous stint in D.C. stands out as perhaps the most consistent stretch of his nine MLB seasons.  The Nationals acquired Bell from the Pirates during the 2020-21 offseason, and Bell proceeded to hit .278/.363/.483 with 41 homers over 1005 plate appearances from Opening Day 2021 until he was dealt to the Padres as part of the Juan Soto blockbuster at the 2022 trade deadline.

Unfortunately for Bell and the Padres, his bat went cold after the deal, though his overall offensive output was enough for him to earn NL Silver Slugger honors for the DH position.  It also led to a two-year, $33MM contract with the Guardians that winter, but Bell didn’t hit particularly well in his first four months in Cleveland before he was again dealt at the deadline, which sparked another hot streak as he helped lead the Marlins to a playoff berth.

The pattern continued at last July’s deadline, as Bell again found himself on the move from the Marlins to the Diamondbacks.  Bell had hit only .239/.305/.394 in 441 PA for Miami last year, but his bat again came to life post-trade, as he hit .279/.361/.436 in 162 PA for an Arizona team that had temporarily lost starting first baseman Christian Walker to the injured list.

The short-term nature of this latest contract leaves open the possibility that Bell could be dealt at his fourth consecutive trade deadline if the Nationals aren’t in contention.  While Lowe is under arbitration control through the 2026 season, Bell and fellow free agent Michael Soroka were both inked to one-year deals, as the Nationals seem to be somewhat hedging their bets on their readiness to compete in 2025.  The Nats have struggled through five straight losing seasons since their World Series victory in 2019, yet with many members of their young core now in the big leagues, there was speculation Washington might be a little more aggressive this winter in firmly announcing the end of its rebuild.

This being said, Bell’s signing is certainly a boost for a Nationals club that had trouble producing offense last year, particularly in the power department.  The Nats’ 135 home runs ranked 29th of 30 teams, and CJ Abrams (with 20 homers) was the only D.C. player who went yard more often than Bell (19 homers) did in 2024.

With Bell and Lowe in the fold, expected improvement from Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr., and a full season from top prospects James Wood and Dylan Crews, there is plenty of reason to think the Nats can be a much more productive lineup.  If everything clicks and the team’s young pitching also takes a step forward, the Nationals might well get back to winning baseball next year, and then perhaps start spending on bigger-name talent next offseason.

Bell’s career walk and strikeout rates have consistently been above average, while his barrel rates have been more spotty.  His hard-hit ball rate dropped to 40.1% last season, slightly below the league average and his lowest mark since the 2018 season.  While there isn’t much sign of decline at age 32, per se, the big question about Bell is simply which version of the slugger is going to show up, given how his production has swung back and forth so sharply over the last few seasons.

Now that Bell is signed, third base remains a target area for Washington, as the team’s attempt to get Gleyber Torres to change positions from second base fell on deaf ears.  The bullpen remains a clear area of need, and there’s still plenty of time in the offseason for the Nationals to add a bigger name than Soroka as more of a clear-cut upgrade to the rotation.

Red Sox Sign Walker Buehler

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TODAY: The breakdown of Buehler’s deal is provided by MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (multiple links), who reports that the contract also contains a $25MM mutual option for the 2026 season.  Buehler receives a $3.05MM signing bonus, $15MM in base salary, and then a $3MM buyout of the mutual option, totaling the aforementioned $21.05MM guarantee.

As much as $2.5MM in bonus money is also available.  Buehler will unlock the first $500K of that cash when he makes his 20th start of the season, and he’ll earn another $500K upon making his 22nd, 24th, 26th, and 28th starts of the season.

DEC. 28: The Red Sox officially announced the Buehler signing.

DEC. 23: The Red Sox are in agreement with right-hander Walker Buehler on a one-year deal worth $21.05MM, according to a report from Russell Dorsey of Yahoo Sports. The deal is pending a physical and includes incentives that could raise the value beyond that aforementioned figure. Buehler is an Excel Sports Management client.

It’s an interesting deal for Buehler, as the $21.05MM guarantee perfectly mirrors that of the Qualifying Offer. Both Buehler himself and Red Sox right-hander Nick Pivetta were considered borderline candidates to be extended the QO at the outset of the winter. Ultimately, the Dodgers declined to extend that offer to Buehler while the Red Sox did so for Pivetta but were rebuffed. From a financial and roster perspective, today’s deal allows Buehler to secure the same guarantee he would’ve gotten had the Dodgers extended him the QO while allowing Boston to add a veteran right-hander to its young rotation on a one-year deal that mirrors what they offered Pivetta last month.

The 30-year-old right-hander was among the league’s most talented young starters during his rookie season back in 2018, and pitched to an excellent 2.82 ERA (146 ERA+) with a 3.16 FIP in a four-season stretch from 2018-21. That stretch concluded with Buehler finishing fourth in NL Cy Young award voting behind Corbin Burnes, Zack Wheeler, and Max Scherzer in a race that seemingly cemented his status as one of the league’s top aces. That career trajectory was thrown off the rails early in the 2022 season, however. Buehler pitched to a relatively pedestrian 4.02 ERA (101 ERA+) in 12 starts for the Dodgers that year before going on the injured list in June and ultimately requiring Tommy John surgery.

Buehler wouldn’t return to a major league mound until May of 2024, nearly two full years later, and struggled badly upon returning. Additional injuries limited Buehler to just 16 starts for the Dodgers this year, and even when he took the mound the right-hander struggled badly. In all, Buehler pitched to a 5.38 ERA (72 ERA+) with a 5.54 FIP in his final regular season in a Dodgers uniform. With that being said, the righty did manage to end his season on a positive note with a solid 3.60 ERA during the club’s run to the World Series championship this year. After a brutal start against the Padres in the NLDS, Buehler fired off ten scoreless frames between the NLCS and the World Series while striking out a third of his opponents.

That combination of a strong postseason, a terrible regular season, a fraught injury history, and a dominant track record made Buehler one of the most intriguing free agents on the market this winter and perhaps the ultimate high-risk, high-reward signing. To that end, it’s perhaps no surprise that he garnered interest from a huge number of teams. In addition to the Red Sox, Buehler also garnered interest from the Tigers, Cubs, Mets, Yankees, Athletics, and Braves this winter. That wide-ranging interest made it apparent early in the winter that Buehler was likely to surpass the one-year, $15MM deal MLBTR predicted he would land as part of our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, where Buehler was ranked as the #37 free agent this winter. It even seemed to open the door to the possibility the right-hander would be able to land a mutli-year deal with opt-outs; while he ultimately settled for a straight one-year pact, his $21.05MM salary in 2025 is likely much healthier than what he would’ve received on an annual basis on a multi-year deal.

For the Red Sox, the addition of Buehler adds another arm with plenty of upside to a rotation already full of it. If Buehler manages to rebound to the form he showed earlier in his career, he’ll form a daunting front two in the Boston rotation alongside lefty Garrett Crochet with right-handers Lucas Giolito and Tanner Houck joining them to create a formidable quartet. The additions of Crochet and Buehler have also significantly deepened the group, as right-handers Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Richard Fitts, and Cooper Criswell all figure to be in the conversation for starts as well after being key pieces of the club’s rotation last year. Further down the depth chart, the Red Sox also boast interesting upside plays Quinn Priester and Michael Fulmer.

The addition of Buehler brings the club’s payroll for 2025 up to just over $175MM, according to RosterResource. The figure is substantially higher for luxury tax purposes, however, sitting just under $212MM. That leaves the club with about $29MM to work with before they surpass the first luxury tax threshold. The Red Sox last surpassed that first threshold in 2022, but there’s been no indication from club brass that the first threshold represents a hard limit on their spending amid what has been a fairly busy offseason for the club. With the rotation seemingly solidified, it seems likely the club’s priorities will now shift towards adding a right-handed bat to their lineup, whether that comes in the form of an outfielder such as Teoscar Hernández or an infielder like Alex Bregman or Nolan Arenado.

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