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Athletics Sign Marco Estrada

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The Athletics have announced a one-year deal with free-agent right-hander Marco Estrada, as Jane Lee of MLB.com first reported (via Twitter). He’ll be guaranteed $4MM, according to ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter).

The former Brewers/Blue Jays hurler is a client of TWC Sports. To clear roster space, the club has outrighted just-claimed righty Parker Bridwell, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter).

This move represents the latest short-term strike from an Oakland organization that wants to boost its pitching staff in the near-term without tying up long-term resources. Naturally, that means taking some chances on players who have not been at top form of late, and Estrada certainly matches that characterization.

The A’s previously inked Mike Fiers and Joakim Soria, but it was clear that the rotation, in particular, was in need of at least one more addition. It’s certainly still possible that other hurlers will be added, at least on minor-league deals.

As for Estrada, he’ll be looking to bounce back from a pair of less-than-effective seasons. Lower body and back issues may partially have been to blame, so returning to full health could make a difference in and of itself. Otherwise, it’s a question whether Estrada can hold off the hands of time for at least one more campaign.

Last year, working in his fourth straight season in Toronto, Estrada posted a brutal 5.64 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. He was stung, especially, by the long ball. While he only allowed dingers on a reasonable 11.2% of the flyballs put in play against him, that still worked out to 1.82 per nine, due to the large number of flies he permits.

Estrada still works in more or less the same fastball velocity range (89.0 mph) that he long has, though it did dip in the second half as his struggles increased. He also sat at a typical 10.1% swinging-strike rate last year. Perhaps, then, much of his physical skill remains intact.

The A’s surely won’t be expecting an ace-level performance, of course, but they obviously feel confident that Estrada will provide a good volume of solid innings. He has mostly done just that over the course of his MLB career.

Indians Re-Sign Oliver Perez

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The Indians announced Friday that they’ve re-signed left-handed reliever Oliver Perez. It’s a one-year contract with a vesting option for the 2020 season for the Scott Boras client. Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that Perez will be guaranteed $2.5MM (Twitter link). Perez has a $2.75MM club option that will automatically vest if he reaches 55 games pitched, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). The option can also vest at $3MM if he appears in 60 games.

Oliver Perez | David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Perez, 37, quietly enjoyed a surprising career renaissance with the Indians last season, working to a sparkling 1.39 ERA with 12.0 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 0.28 HR/9 and a 41.2 percent ground-ball rate in 32 1/3 innings of work. Perez’s workload in the Majors was limited by the fact that he opened the season with the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate after agreeing to a minor league deal in hopes of rebuilding his stock. The opportunity to do so didn’t present itself with the Yankees, but Perez latched on with Cleveland on a big league deal in early June and firmly put himself back on the map as a viable bullpen option over the season’s final four months.

While one might think that Perez will serve as a left-handed specialist, as he has in the past, his dominance in 2018 should earn him opportunities regardless of opponent. Righties and lefties alike were utterly befuddled by Perez last year; he held left-handed opponents to a .194/.215/.274 slash, which is excellent but still pales in comparison to the comical .104/.218/.104 slash to which he limited righties.

It’s been a quiet offseason for Cleveland, with Perez somewhat incredibly representing their first Major League free-agent signing of the offseason. The Indians have been more active on the trade front, though they’ve dealt away more MLB talent (Yan Gomes, Yonder Alonso, Edwin Encarnacion) than they’ve acquired while also losing free agents Michael Brantley (to the Astros) and Cody Allen (to the Angels).

That makes for a puzzling offseason for a club that entered the winter widely expected to run away with its fourth straight division title in 2019. Cleveland may still be the favorites, but improvements by the Twins and White Sox alike will give the Tribe a tougher time in securing a division title — especially considering the lack of improvement this winter. Payroll issues, however, have been said to be a very real limitation in Cleveland after a franchise-record figure in 2018, and it doesn’t seem as if the team is poised to make any notable expenditures between now and Opening Day. All that said, if Perez is able to remotely approximate last season’s excellence, he’ll help to solidify a bullpen that was in dire need of augmentation.

Mets To Sign Justin Wilson

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The Mets are in agreement on a contract with free-agent lefty Justin Wilson, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link). The ACES client’s contract is still pending the completion of a physical. Assuming that checks out, he’ll be paid a total of $10MM over two years, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link).

Justin Wilson | Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

Wilson, 31, will give the Mets a much-needed lefty to a bullpen where the previous top options included an inexperienced Daniel Zamora and non-roster invitee Luis Avilan. It’s possible that one or both of those southpaws will still pitch alongside Wilson in the ’pen, but the veteran Wilson will help to solidify the area of need and provide plenty of strikeouts along the way.

Wilson is coming off an up-and-down tenure with the Cubs, with whom he posted a strong 3.41 ERA and averaged 11.4 K/9 last season. While control was an issue early in his Cubs tenure, he righted the ship in that regard over the course of the 2019 season; after walking 30 hitters in his first 26 1/3 innings as a Cub, Wilson regained his control and issued a vastly more manageable 22 walks in his final 46 innings of work in ’18. Left-handed batters, in particular, struggled against Wilson this past season, hitting just .188/.301/.342. He’s been far more than a specialist throughout his career, however, holding right-handed opponents to a .210/.305/.323 line in parts of seven Major League seasons.

The addition of Wilson is the third notable pickup for the Mets and new GM Brodie Van Wagenen this winter, as they’ve previously acquired Edwin Diaz in a blockbuster trade with the Mariners and re-signed Jeurys Familia to a three-year, $30MM contract as well. That newly acquired trio (re-acquired — in Familia’s case) will be joined by righties Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman in anchoring what should be an improved Mets bullpen in 2019.

With the signing, Wilson becomes the tenth free-agent reliever to sign a multi-year contract this offseason and the second to do so with the Mets (joining Familia). Adding an annual $5MM salary to the mix will push the Mets’ payroll a bit further north. While they’ll technically be on the hook for upwards of $163MM in 2019, they’ll also receive substantial compensation from insurance policies on both David Wright and Yoenis Cespedes. At present, including the Wilson signing and the insurance money they’ll recoup from Wright and Cespedes, the Mets project to a roughly $149MM payroll, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez.

Yankees Sign Adam Ottavino

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Jan. 24: The Yankees have formally announced the signing. Ottavino will be paid $8MM annually, tweets Heyman, and he’ll receive a deferred $3MM signing bonus.

Jan. 17, 12:47pm: Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets that Ottavino will be guaranteed $27MM over the three-year term.

12:42pm :The Yankees have agreed to terms on a contract with free-agent reliever Adam Ottavino, ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets. Robert Murray and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic had reported seconds prior that the two sides were closing in on an arrangement believed to be worth roughly $25MM over three years (Twitter link). Ottavino is represented by All Bases Covered Sports Management.

Adam Ottavino | Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Ottavino, a New York native who went to high school in Brooklyn, has been connected to the Yankees since before the offseason even began. His addition comes on the heels of a breakout 2018 season with the Rockies in which the 33-year-old righty pitched to a 2.43 ERA with 13.0 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 0.58 HR/9 and a 43 percent ground-ball rate in 77 2/3 innings of relief.

Ottavino joins an already loaded New York relief corps that features Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, Chad Green and fellow offseason signee Zach Britton. That group is impressive on its own, before even considering 25-year-old righty Jonathan Holder, who may not yet be a household name but has nevertheless emerged as a quality reliever in his own right. Certainly, no bullpen is ever a sure thing to produce, given the year-over-year volatility of relief pitchers, but in terms of sheer talent and upside, there’s arguably no better collection of bullpen arms in baseball right now.

It should be noted that while Ottavino had a career year in 2018, the two prior seasons garnered more mixed results. Ottavino underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2015 and missed the majority of that season as well as a notable chunk of the 2016 campaign. When he returned in July 2016, he was nothing short of excellent, pitching to a 2.67 ERA with a 35-to-7 K/BB ratio and a preposterous 61.9 percent grounder rate in 27 innings.

The 2017 season, however, was brutal for Ottavino, as he averaged 6.6 walks and 1.35 homers per nine innings pitched en route to a 5.06 ERA. Coming off that campaign, few would’ve believed that the righty would put himself in position to score this type of three-year deal on the open market, but his remarkable bounceback effort was an eye-opener. Ottavino’s 12.1 percent swinging-strike rate isn’t commensurate with the whiff rate you’d expect for someone averaging 13 punchouts per nine innings, and his 26.1 percent opponents’ chase rate on out-of-zone pitches is well below the league average for a reliever. Nonetheless, today’s agreement serves as evidence that the Yankees are convinced of his ability to at least approach his 2018 output as he enters his mid-30s.

In effect, Ottavino will be replacing right-hander David Robertson, who signed with the Phillies on a two-year deal worth a guaranteed $23MM a couple of weeks back. Britton, the team’s other marquee addition, had already finished out the season in manager Aaron Boone’s bullpen following a deadline trade with the Orioles. In that sense, then, one could argue that the bullpen hasn’t definitively improved. Of course, improving on a relief corps that posted the game’s fourth-best ERA (3.38) and the game’s highest strikeout percentage (30.2 percent) is no small feat. At the very least, swapping out Robertson for Ottavino will ensure that the Yankees’ bullpen should maintain its already elite status, even if one or two of the team’s top relievers take a step back in ’19.

The recent additions of Ottavino and DJ LeMahieu, former Rockies teammates now reunited in the Bronx, have added $21MM worth of luxury tax hits to the Yankees’ ledger. That should put them firmly above the $206MM cutoff even if they’re successfully able to find a taker for Sonny Gray and his $7.5MM salary. As Jason Martinez outlines at Roster Resource, the Yankees’ luxury tax payroll currently projects to just north of $224MM, while their actual in-season 2019 payroll — assuming an even $9MM per year breakdown of Ottavino’s deal — currently rests around $209.5MM.

However, the Yankees dipped south of the luxury tax line last season, which reset them back into the lowest penalty bracket. As such, they’ll be faced with a relatively tame penalty — a 12 percent overage tax on every dollar north of the $206MM cutoff point.

The three-year, $27MM value of Ottavino’s contract is likely a bitter pill for the Rockies to swallow, as Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post observes (Twitter link). The Rox handed out a pair of three-year deals worth that exact amount when signing Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee an offseason ago, both of whom struggled through awful seasons in year one of those contracts. That pair of signings, however, combined with the $52MM pact given to Wade Davis, surely restricted the Rockies’ ability to make an earnest effort to re-sign Ottavino this winter.

Generally, though, Ottavino’s contract falls well within range of what was reasonably expected heading into the offseason. We at MLBTR ranked him 21st on our annual ranking of the game’s Top 50 free agents, predicting that he’d secure a three-year, $30MM pact with the Yankees.

Cubs To Sign Brad Brach

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1:24PM: Brach will earn at least $4.35MM in guaranteed money in 2019, Rosenthal tweets.  The mutual option is also more of a dual option for the 2020 season, similar to what we’ve seen in recent contracts for Zach Britton and Yusei Kikuchi.  If the Cubs exercise their option for 2020, Brach will receive $9.5MM over the course of the two seasons.  If Brach exercises his side of the option but the Cubs do not, Brach is still under team control for 2020 but at a lesser salary.

11:59AM: The Cubs have agreed to sign free agent reliever Brad Brach, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link).  The deal is a one-year contract worth $3MM, as per Jon Heyman of Fancred Sports (Twitter links), and the two sides hold a mutual option for the 2020 season.  Brach, a client of Big League Management Company, will have to pass a physical before the deal is official.

After four years of excellent numbers out of the Orioles’ bullpen from 2014-17, Brach’s production stumbled in the first half of the 2018 season, as he posted a 4.85 ERA over 39 innings with Baltimore.  Brach had an untidy 4.4 BB/9 rate over that stretch, though an inflated BABIP may have somewhat unfairly contributed to Brach’s struggles.  After a deadline trade to the Braves, however, Brach looked more like his old self, delivering a 1.52 ERA, 8.4 K/9, and a 2.44 K/BB rate over 23 2/3 frames for Atlanta.

On the whole, Brach posted a career-best 46% grounder rate in 2018, though he also had a career-worst 35% hard-hit ball rate, far surpassing his previous high of 29.6%.  His fastball also averaged 94.4mph after three years of topping the 95mph threshold, though Brach also threw his fastball less often than usual last season, instead using his changeup with greater frequency in 2018 than in any season save 2015.

These warning signs and Brach’s age (33 in April) may have been enough to lower Brach’s price tag to just one guaranteed season.  (MLBTR ranked Brach 41st on our Top 50 Free Agents list, with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Jeff Todd projecting Brach for a two-year, $12MM deal.)  The mutual option does provide the right-hander with the ability to test free agency again next winter if he returns to his old form, making the deal essentially a pillow contract.

Brach served as Baltimore’s closer in 2017 when Britton was on the disabled list, and he could very well pick up some save opportunities early next season as Brandon Morrow recovers from November elbow surgery.  At the very least, Brach will provide some backing behind Pedro Strop, Carl Edwards Jr., or whomever ends up handling the ninth inning while Morrow is out, assuming Joe Maddon doesn’t deploy a committee approach.

Getting the 2013-17 version of Brach for, at most, $9.5MM over two years would be a nice coup for a Cubs team that has been facing a payroll crunch all winter.  Even the modest expenditure for Brach, however, puts Chicago into a higher Competitive Balance Tax bracket.  As per Roster Resource’s projections, the Cubs now have a luxury tax payroll over just under $229MM for next season, putting them in line for an additional tax beyond the usual 20% “first-time” rate for not only exceeding the $206MM luxury tax threshold, but exceeding it by more than $20MM.  There had been speculation that the Cubs could explore trading a big contract or two off its current roster to afford bullpen help or other acquisitions, and it remains to be seen if Theo Epstein’s front office has more moves in store to cut payroll and/or land new players.

Rangers Sign Asdrubal Cabrera

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TODAY: The Rangers have officially announced the signing.

TUESDAY: The Rangers have agreed to a one-year deal with veteran infielder Asdrubal Cabrera, pending a physical, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link). The deal promises the Octagon client $3.5MM, per ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter).

Initial indications are that Cabrera will primarily line up at third base in Texas. With the team’s middle-infield duo already settled, that certainly makes sense. No doubt, the chance for regular duty was a large part of the draw for the long-time big leaguer.

Cabrera, 33, has spent most of his career in the middle infield, with the lion’s share of that time coming at shortstop. He has lined up at third in recent seasons, but still only has accumulated 471 2/3 frames at the hot corner — representing less than four percent of his total action in the field at the game’s highest level.

While Cabrera has at times actually drawn improved grades on his glove at short in recent years, particularly in the eyes of UZR, his range has long represented a major demerit. Since he’s otherwise a surehanded fielder, and clearly has the arm to work on the left side of the infield, suggests that third base represents a sensible position.

Of course, the calling card for Cabrera remains his bat. He has actually turned things up over the past three years, posting a cumulative .274/.334/.456 slash in that span that’s reflective of his best earlier-career campaigns. The switch-hitter hits for a high average, delivers a fair bit of pop (23 home runs in 2018), and has long succeeded against both right- and left-handed pitching (career .752 OPS vs. .759 OPS, respectively).

In many regards, this seems to be a bit of a bargain rate for a solid veteran who has delivered so much offense in recent seasons. Though he fell just off of MLBTR’s list of the top fifty free agents, receiving honorable mention consideration, Cabrera is younger than Jed Lowrie (who signed for two years and $20MM) and easily outperformed Brian Dozier (one year, $9MM) at the plate last year.

Trouble was, this year’s market (including free agents and trade candidates) was loaded with players who could handle second and/or third base. Among them, Marwin Gonzalez, Mike Moustakas, Josh Harrison, Derek Dietrich, Neil Walker, Logan Forsythe, and others remain available on the open market (in addition, of course, to superstar Manny Machado). As it turns out, Cabrera will land just shy of Ian Kinsler in total guarantee, though he’ll avoid handing over control of another season via club option.

With the move, the Rangers will fill the void created when they traded Jurickson Profar earlier in the offseason. Elvis Andrus and Rougned Odor will remain entrenched at shortstop and second base, respectively, though it surely doesn’t hurt that Cabrera could step in at either position if a need arises. Slugger Joey Gallo will presumably range the outfield, though he’s also an option at third base if there’s a need.

In conjunction with some other veteran additions — veteran backstop Jeff Mathis, three starters (Lance Lynn, Drew Smyly, Shelby Miller), and reliever Jesse Chavez — the Rangers have certainly shored up their roster. Among those acquisitions, only Mathis and Lynn required multiple years, and none of the salaries represents a major outlay for an organization that has a history of significant payrolls and is readying for a new stadium boost.

All in all, there’s greater upside on hand than you might have expected, particularly if a few key young players can make strides. Still, it’s tough to see this group making a strong run in a top-heavy American League. Maintaining a reasonably competitive product won’t allow the Rangers to pocket cost-savings and draft picks to the extent they might have otherwise, but it should help boost revenue and fan interest in the near-term. It’ll be interesting to see how the roster reloading effort shakes out in Texas.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Giants Sign Drew Pomeranz

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2:55pm: The incentive pay is quite achievable, so long as the Giants keep Pomeranz on board and keep him in the rotation. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic has the details (Twitter link).

Pomeranz gets $500K if he’s on the active roster coming out of camp and upon the season’s 150th day, in addition to a quarter million apiece for being on the roster 90 and 120 days into the 2019 campaign. He also receives $250K for reaching 25 and 50 innings, a provision which will be met early if he’s a starter and can still be triggered if he works from the pen.

The rest of the cash requires Pomeranz to open ballgames. He gets $125K apiece upon his second, fourth, sixth, and eighth start; $100K upon reaching 10, 14, 16, 18, 20, 24, 27, and 30; and a final $200K if he records a full 32-start campaign.

2:05pm: The Giants announced the move, with outfielder Mike Gerber being designated for assignment to clear roster space.

12:43pm: The Giants have agreed to terms with southpaw Drew Pomeranz, according to Larry Krueger of KNBR. Pomeranz will be guaranteed just $1.5MM, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com tweets. There are incentives that can push the total value to $5MM, though, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (Twitter link).

Pomeranz becomes the second veteran lefty to sign no in San Francisco this winter, joining Derek Holland in that regard. He’ll be looking to follow Holland in a different regard as well — namely, utilizing the opportunity to work in the spacious ballpark to help spur a career turnaround.

New Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi may have relied on the opinions of preexisting staff members in bringing back Holland, but he’s no doubt applying plenty of his own experience in securing a deal with Pomeranz. Zaidi was a key member of the Oakland front office during the lefty’s tenure with the Athletics.

At thirty years of age, Pomeranz could still author a second bounceback, having done so previously when he landed with the A’s after washing out with the Rockies. It wasn’t long ago, after all, that Pomeranz was wrapping up a four-year run in which he threw 499 1/3 innings of 3.24 ERA ball with 9.1 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9.

Unfortunately, Pomeranz’s final season with the RedSox — who gave up a top prospect to get him in a trade that ultimately came under scrutiny for the Padres’ failure to disclose medical info — did not go as well as his first full year in Boston. Making it through just 74 innings in an injury-ravaged 2018 season, Pomeranz worked to an ugly 6.08 ERA while allowing 5.4 free passes and 1.5 home runs per nine innings. Arm issues clearly nagged him all year long, with a flexor tendon strain and biceps tendinitis ultimately identified as specific maladies, as Pomeranz lost nearly two ticks on his average fastball.

All things considered, this seems like a rather easy and minimal risk for the Giants to take. It stands to reason that the club offered Pomeranz a clear path to a rotation job as part of its sales pitch, though the plans are not fully clear. If he does take a spot in the starting five, it would appear to bump fellow lefties Andrew Suarez and Ty Blach out of the prospective Opening Day rotation (at least on paper).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Brewers Promote, Extend David Stearns

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The Brewers have promoted David Stearns to the position of president of baseball operations, per a club announcement. He has also received a contract extension of unknown length.

The news comes as little surprise after a strong Milwaukee run in 2018, with the club taking the NL Central title and advancing to the NLCS. Stearns, who took over as the club’s GM in the fall of 2015 (on a contract of still-unknown duration), drew interest from other organizations this winter but was obviously viewed as a critical piece in the Brewers’ own long-term plans.

Also receiving a title bump from the organization was Rick Schlesinger, who becomes the president of business operations. He had previously functioned as the chief operating officer for eight years.

While the news is certainly not without its ramifications — a longer, presumably better-compensated tenure for both men, along with new business cards and office placards — it largely represents a confirmation that the Milwaukee club is pleased with its current trajectory. In addition to the successes on the field, the announcement lauds the business-side efforts to continue improving Miller Park and launch a new Arizona facility.

Of course, the organization also had a significant announcement yesterday: Miller Park will have a new name after two more seasons. It’s not yet known exactly what the facility will be called, but American Family Insurance will own the rights for the next 15-year period. That will help boost revenues, with a prospective new television rights deal also on the horizon as a means of potentially enhancing the income stream.

If owner Mark Attanasio has his way, the business and baseball ops departments will continue to boost one another — the former helping to charge fan interest and the latter providing the funds needed to boost payroll. According to Schlesinger, that’s how things have gone to this point. “David and I both understand the importance of our two disciplines working together as one, cohesive unit, and we embrace that approach throughout the organization,” he said.

From a hot stove perspective, it seems that things will largely continue on as before. Presumably, Stearns will continue to function in much the same capacity. Whether or not assistant GM Matt Arnold — who joined the organization shortly after Stearns did — will get his own new title remains to be seen.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Mariners To Re-Sign Ichiro Suzuki

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The Mariners have reached agreement on a minor-league deal with ageless outfielder Ichiro Suzuki, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). It would pay him at a $750K rate in the majors.

While the contract may come as a surprise to some, it has long been something of an inevitability. When the legendary former star wrapped up his most recent stint with the M’s last May, the sides made clear that the arrangement — in which Ichiro traveled and trained with the big league club but did not suit up for games — would not preclude a return to action in the future. Since that time, Ichiro has prepared to play in 2019, with the club indicating it would give him an opportunity in camp.

At this point, it’s a risk-free move for the Seattle team. Indications are that Ichiro will at least be utilized to open the season, as the M’s are slated to kick things off with a two-game series in his native Japan in which the team will be able to carry a 28-man roster. Beyond that, it’s anyone’s guess whether Ichiro has a real shot at sticking on the active roster, but it certainly seems at least possible he’ll do so in what has already been declared something of a transition year for the club.

Needless to say, it’s an unusual situation. Then again, few if any players have combined Ichiro’s (metaphorically) towering stature with his unending drive to play the game. For a Seattle team that has failed to reach its goals over the past few seasons (and then some), there’s obviously an opportunity here to continue to benefit from a uniquely great player. There’s also still no shortage of potentially tricky terrain to navigate.

Angels Sign Cody Allen

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Jan. 22: Allen will earn $250K upon reaching both 35 and 40 games finished, Heyman tweets. He’ll receive $500K for reaching 45, 50 and 55 games finished, and he’ll also receive a $500K assignment bonus in the event that he is traded.

Jan. 20: The deal is official, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets. The incentives are for $2MM, not $2.5MM, Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group reports.

Jan. 18: Allen will be guaranteed $8.5MM and can earn another $2.5MM based on his number of games finished, Rosenthal tweets. It’s a straight one-year deal with no options, which will allow Allen to re-enter the market next offseason — hopefully on the heels of a rebound campaign. The signing is still pending a physical.

Jan. 17: The Angels have reportedly secured a one-year deal with veteran reliever Cody Allen. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link) first indicated that something may be in place, while ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan and Alden Gonzalez (Twitter links) reported that terms had indeed been agreed to.

The Meister Sports Management client will need to pass a physical before the deal is official. If and when that comes to pass, it seems he’ll earn something in the realm of $9MM, though that’s not fully clear. Incentive pay could also be a feature, though that too has yet to be reported. Neither is it yet known whether the pact includes an option, though Passan suggests that’s also a possibility.

Notably, Rosenthal indicates that Allen was specifically seeking an opportunity to function as a closer — a role he has a rather clear path to in Anaheim. By prioritizing the opportunity over the total length and guarantee, he could hope to bounce back and reenter the market next winter in search of a bigger deal. Prior to his messy 2018 campaign, after all, Allen had seemed on track for a sizable, multi-year pact in free agency.

This time last year, Allen had just agreed to a $10MM deal to avoid arbitration in his final season with the Indians. He had long since laid claim to the team’s closer role. In total, as of the conclusion of the 2017 season, Allen had run up 373 2/3 innings of 2.67 ERA pitching with 11.7 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9 and 122 games saved.

With an immaculate record of durability, ample high-leverage experience, and consistently robust velocity readings and swinging-strike rates, Allen had all the makings of a top free agent closer. He was due to hit the market at a relatively youthful thirty years of age. That version of Allen might reasonably have looked to a contract like the Mark Melancon deal as a floor in free agency.

Instead, things went south in 2018. It was hardly a complete disaster, as Allen was healthy enough to make seventy appearances and save 27 ballgames while showing many of the same skills he always had. But it was a thoroughly diminished version of the hurler in many regards.

For starters, Allen averaged a career-low 94.0 mph with his fastball — a notable, though hardly monumental, decline from his typical levels. Whether that was the root cause isn’t entirely clear, but opposing batters seemingly found it easier to fight off his sliders; their contact rate on balls out of the zone jumped from below fifty percent (as low as 44.3% in 2017) all the way up to 56.9% last year. Ultimately, Allen recorded a 12.7% swinging-strike — his lowest since he became the closer for the Indians — while hard contact soared to 38.4% and he coughed up nearly a homer and a half per nine innings.

That’s not to say that all is lost. Perhaps Allen can rediscover a bit of juice on his heater, or otherwise adjust. He did end up being a bit unlucky, with Statcast crediting him with a .306 xwOBA that lagged the .323 wOBA that hitters produced against him. Things certainly didn’t end on a promising note, as Allen was bombed in two postseason appearances, but he may only be a mechanical adjustment or restful winter away from clicking back into gear.

The Halos, clearly, will take a roll of the dice on a return to form. As with rotation additions Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill, the organization clearly hopes to unearth some gems — or, at least, pick up some solid innings at a reasonable price — without tampering with its post-2019 balance sheet. Allen is certainly a reasonable risk, with clear upside, though the pitching unit as a whole still underwhelms on paper.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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