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Jon Gray Suffers Season-Ending Foot Fracture

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THURSDAY: Gray will undergo surgery Friday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com tweets.

WEDNESDAY, 1:56PM: Speaking to MLB.com’s Jake Rill and other reporters, Gray said his injury is another stress fracture, similar to his 2017 injury.  Gray indicated that he is considering having surgery to correct the problem, and such a procedure wouldn’t interfere with his readiness for the start of the 2020 season.

12:07PM: Rockies right-hander Jon Gray will miss the rest of the season after suffering a left foot fracture, the team announced.  Gray has been placed on the 60-day injured list.  Colorado purchased the contract of right-hander Tim Melville from Triple-A, and Melville will take Gray’s spot as the starter for today’s game against the Diamondbacks.

The news brings a premature end to what was looking like the best of Gray’s four full MLB seasons, as the 27-year-old had a 3.84 ERA, 2.68 K/BB rate, and an even 9.0 K/9 over 150 innings for the Rox.  It was a nice bounce-back from the 5.12 ERA Gray posted in 172 1/3 frames in 2018, though advanced metrics indicated that he was a little unlucky to post such an inflated ERA, while some of his 2019 ERA indicators (4.06 FIP, 3.89 xFIP, 4.35 SIERA) hint at a bit of good fortune this year.  Statcast also paints rather a dour picture of Gray’s 2019 work, as he is in the bottom 10 percent of all pitchers in hard-hit ball rate and fastball spin rate, not to mention a below-average xwOBA.

On the plus side, Gray posted a career-best 50.4% grounder rate and he is still one of the game’s hardest throwers, with an average fastball velocity of 96.1 mph.  He was also the rare pitcher who actually performed better at Coors Field (3.46 ERA in 75 1/3 IP) than on the road (4.22 ERA in 74 2/3 IP).  With 12.6 fWAR accumulated since the start of the 2016 season, Gray has become a generally reliable, if still a touch inconsistent, rotation stalwart, which is no small feat for a homegrown Rockies pitcher.

While he has been pretty durable over his short career, this is the second time Gray has suffered a major left foot injury, as he spent two and a half months on the injured list in 2017 due to a stress fracture.  Still, Gray and German Marquez project as the top two members of the Rockies rotation going forward to 2020, as Kyle Freeland and Tyler Anderson have been respectively bedeviled by inconsistency and injuries this season.

Today’s outing will see Melville make his first Major League appearance since September 26, 2017.  The 29-year-old tossed 14 2/3 innings for the Reds, Twins, and Padres in 2016-17, and then went onto pitch in the Orioles’ farm system and in independent baseball until inking a minor league contract with the Rockies back in May.  Pitching in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, Melville has a 5.42 ERA and 2.2 HR/9 over 96 1/3 innings at Triple-A this season, though with an 8.8 K/9 and 2.35 K/BB rate.

Braves Reportedly Expected To Sign Francisco Cervelli

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Just-released Pirates backstop Francisco Cervelli evidently won’t spend much time on the open market. He is slated to ink a deal with the Braves, according to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (via Twitter). Whether it’s of the major or minor-league variety isn’t known.

Cervelli still must clear release waivers before he’ll be able to sign a new deal. But that’s really just a formality, given that he’s still owed the balance of his $11.5MM salary — about $2.4MM. The Braves will only owe him the league minimum rate for any time spent on the MLB roster, with the Bucs paying the rest.

While it seemed at one point earlier this year that Cervelli would not attempt to return to catching duties, he emphatically quashed that concept and has donned the mask on a rehab assignment. Now, he’ll help the Braves cover for the recent loss of Brian McCann. Whether Cervelli will immediately join Tyler Flowers on the MLB roster isn’t known. It’s also possible that the club will tap John Ryan Murphy for that job and then bring up Cervelli once rosters expand.

Cervelli has hit well on his recent rehab stint, but that’s a limited sample against minor-league pitching. He was far from his peak form to begin the season, turning in 123 plate appearances of .193/.279/.248 hitting before he hit the injured list. With a rising chase rate and swinging-strike rate, declining average exit velocity, and worsening strikeout-to-walk numbers (25.2% K vs. 7.3% BB), the poor output was well-deserved.

The Braves will have to hope there’s more left in the tank. Cervelli has been a solid-two-way catcher for quite some time. Just last year, he was able to turn in a healthy .259/.378/.431 slash line with a dozen home runs. Regardless of the outlook with the bat in hand, the Atlanta organization is obviously interested in adding some veteran depth behind the dish. Better options aren’t likely to present themselves over the next week — after which time it will not be possible to acquire a postseason-eligible player. By picking up Cervelli, the club will add another layer of protection in the event that McCann is slow to return.

Pirates Release Francisco Cervelli

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The Pirates announced today that they have released catcher Francisco Cervelli. The 33-year-old had been attempting to work his way back from a concussion.

Today’s move represents a disappointing end to to Cervelli’s generally excellent tenure in Pittsburgh. He has been with the organization since 2015, blossoming from a former Yankees reserve into a high-quality full-time backstop.

GM Neal Huntington issued a statement on the matter, as MLB.com’s Adam Berry covers on Twitter. The club’s top baseball operations decisionmaker explained:

“Out of respect and appreciation for Francisco, we have chosen to honor his request to be released in order for him to pursue an opportunity that potentially gives him a chance at more playing time, as well as an opportunity this season to compete in the postseason.”

Cervelli is owed $11.5MM this season — far too much to make him an appealing waiver-claim target. Instead, the Bucs will continue to pay the remainder, less a pro-rated portion of the league minimum for whatever portion of the season he spends on another MLB roster.

That deal didn’t always seem like dead weight. At the time the three-year, $31MM extension was signed — thus keeping Cervelli from testing free agency before the 2017 season — it looked to be an excellent value for the club. Cervelli ended up missing much more time due to injury than anticipated, but was still able to turn in 404 plate appearances of .259/.378/.431 hitting last year. Over his five total seasons in Pittsburgh, he carried a 100 OPS+ — making him a precisely league average hitter, which is a nice rate of production for a well-regarded defensive catcher.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Ryan Pressly To Undergo Knee Surgery, Miss 4-6 Weeks

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The Astros have placed right-hander Ryan Pressly on the 10-day injured list, amidst a series of roster moves.  (MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart was among those to report the news.)  Astros GM Jeff Luhnow told Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle and other media that Pressly will miss four-to-six weeks after undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery.

Infielder Jack Mayfield was optioned to Triple-A, while right-hander Joe Biagini was recalled from the minors and third baseman Abraham Toro’s contract has been selected for his Major League debut, as reported earlier today.

This is the second time that Pressly’s right knee has sent him to the IL this season, as he missed about two weeks in late July and early August due to soreness in the joint.  The problem first arose when Pressly was hit in the knee by a ball off the bat of Andrelton Simmons back on July 18, and Luhnow said today that Pressly felt some more soreness after his latest outing.  A previously-undiscovered “small issue” was found after a span of Pressly’s knee, and a surgical procedure seems to have been the decided course of action to fix the problem once and for all.

Luhnow is hopeful that Pressly will be able to return to action before the postseason begins, though the four-to-six timeline will make it a close call if Pressly’s recovery time is anything more than minimal.  It also creates uncertainty as to whether Houston will have arguably its best bullpen arm fully healthy and ready to go come time for the playoffs.

Pressly’s dominant work earned him the first All-Star appearance of his seven-year career, as the righty has a 2.50 ERA, 11.6 K/9, 50.8% grounder rate, and 5.91 K/BB rate over 50 1/3 relief innings this season.  Statcast credits him with the best curveball spin rate of any pitcher in baseball in 2019, and he is also in the 98th percentile of all pitchers in terms of fastball spin.  It’s possible Pressly’s numbers could be even more dominant if it wasn’t for some bad luck with the long ball, as he has a 23.1% home run rate.

Losing Pressly is a big blow to any relief corps, even one as deep and talented as the Astros’ bullpen.  Brad Peacock recently returned from the IL himself to add some extra depth, and Biagini will make a quick return after being optioned to Triple-A just last week.  Aaron Sanchez is currently on the injured list recovering from a pec injury, though once he returns, he is also likely to lineup as a reliever in the postseason since Houston won’t need a fifth starter.

It also wouldn’t be surprising to see the Astros scour the waiver wire for any late pickups, or perhaps try to swing a trade with another team for a pitcher on a minor league contract (players on MLB deals can’t be traded after the July 31 deadline, of course).  While Pressly’s loss isn’t likely to cost the Astros the AL West or anything, the team wants to have as many relief options as possible in preparation for what they hope is a long postseason run, especially if there’s any concern as to whether Pressly will make it back in time.

Chris Sale Out For Remainder Of Regular Season

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5:17pm: The team update does have some bad news: Sale has received a platelet-rich plasma treatment and will be shut down for at least six weeks. He’ll be reevaluated at that time.

Whether there’s any possibility of Sale appearing in the postseason isn’t known. But with less than six weeks to go before the end of the regular season, it’s now certain he will not be able to help the club make a last-ditch run at sneaking into Wild Card position.

The update doesn’t fill in any blanks regarding the underlying issues in the joint. But given the course of treatment, it seems reasonable to presume that the medical team has identified something beyond inflammation alone.

4:04pm: If you’re a Red Sox fan, you may now safely exhale. Boston lefty Chris Sale will not require Tommy John surgery, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (Twitter link).

Precisely what is wrong with Sale’s elbow isn’t yet clear. But it seems that a visit to Dr. James Andrews did not reveal anything beyond the inflammation that initially sent the southpaw to the injured list.

We’ll keep updating the situation as further information emerges. Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe notes (via Twitter) that the club is preparing to release a statement on the topic of Sale’s health.

Braves Claim Billy Hamilton

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The Braves have claimed outfielder Billy Hamilton off waivers from the Royals, per a club announcement. The Atlanta organization will be responsible for the remainder of Hamilton’s $4.25MM salary along with a $1MM buyout on a mutual option.

It’s a fairly significant price to pay, but understandable under the circumstances. The Braves have lost their two best left-handed-hitting outfield options, Nick Markakis and Ender Inciarte, to injuries that may not heal by the end of the season. Lacking the ability to strike a trade for a MLB contract, the club had limited avenues for acquiring a replacement. The

As we noted when Inciarte’s injury arose, Hamilton is in the same general sub-category of player. Both are speedy, defensive-oriented center fielders who hit from the left side. If Inciarte is something of an archetype, Hamilton is an extreme version of the class. Hamilton has been an exceedingly valuable fielder and baserunner, though he has minimal power and has rarely reached base at palatable rates.

This year, Hamilton’s bat has sunk even further. At the time of his departure from the K.C. roster, he had produced 305 plate appearances of 44 wRC+ output. He’s still valued as an excellent defender and baserunner, though there has been a bit of erosion in Hamilton’s most notable physical skill. By measure of Statcast, his sprint speed has fallen from a 99+ percentile placement in recent years to the 97.5th percentile this season.

While Hamilton hasn’t been at his best in 2019, he ought to help shore things up down the stretch. And he’s a fascinating postseason roster piece as a potential late-inning pinch runner and/or defensive replacement. That’s arguably worth a premium to a team that’s all but assured of a postseason appearance. As we discussed in profiling some August waiver claim candidates, the Braves can perhaps afford to splurge on a needed addition given that they were bailed out of the remainder of their obligations to Kevin Gausman.

Athletics To Promote A.J. Puk

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The Athletics will promote left-hander A.J. Puk from Triple-A Las Vegas prior to tomorrow’s game, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports (via Twitter). Puk, the No. 6 overall pick in the 2016 draft, will need to have his contract formally selected. Oakland has an opening on its 40-man roster to accommodate him.

A.J. Puk | Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Puk, 24, is considered by virtually every major prospect outlet to be among the game’s top 50 prospects. He’s viewed as a potential key piece to the Athletics’ rotation down the road, but he’s been working primarily in relief this season as he works back from 2018 Tommy John surgery. The towering 6’7″ southpaw has a lackluster 4.97 ERA in 25 1/3 minor league innings this season, but he’s also punched out 38 hitters against 10 walks in that time.

Fangraphs currently rates Puk as baseball’s No. 21 prospect, putting a 65 grade on his fastball, a 60 on his slider and giving him the potential for two more average or better offerings in his changeup and curveball. MLB.com lists Puk 43rd among MLB prospects and dropped a 70 grade on his heater with a 65 on his slider. Puk, who paced all minor league starters with 13.2 K/9 in his last full season back in 2017, is touted as a potential No. 2 starter at the Major League level. He’ll likely get the opportunity to make good on those bullish forecasts in 2020, alongside the likes of Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas and perhaps fellow ballyhooed left-hander Jesus Luzardo, but for now he’ll step into Bob Melvin’s bullpen and look to help shut things down in the late innings.

Oakland has three left-handers in the ’pen at the moment, with Jake Diekman, Wei-Chung Wang and Ryan Buchter all giving Melvin southpaw options. All three of those southpaws have had issues with commanding the strike zone, though, and none can match Puk’s overall ceiling as a game-changing relief weapon. Taking a broader look, Oakland has seen closer Blake Treinen follow up a dominant 2018 campaign with a dismal 2019 showing. Fellow righty Lou Trivino has taken similar steps backward, leaving the A’s with a bullpen that’s been weaker than they anticipated.

By promoting Puk now, the A’s will be positioning themselves to control him through 2025 season, although future optional assignments to the minors could yet impact that timeline. If he’s in the big leagues from Tuesday through season’s end, he’ll accrue 41 days of big league service, though, meaning in order to push his path to free agency back until the 2026-27 offseason, the A’s would need to keep him in Triple-A for nearly two months next season. In other words, this appears quite likely to be a chance for Puk to cement himself as a big leaguer and leave the minor leagues behind. If he is indeed in the Majors for good, he wouldn’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2022 season.

Reds Place Joey Votto On IL

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The Reds announced today they have placed first baseman Joey Votto on the 10-day injured list with a lower back strain. Brian O’Grady has been recalled to replace Votto on the 25-man roster.

So continues a shockingly difficult season for the former NL MVP. Votto’s .262/.352/.410 line is the first below-average offensive performance of his career. In an era where seemingly every hitter is a threat to launch 20 home runs, Votto’s power has taken a massive dip over the past two seasons, as he’s sitting on 12 homers for the second consecutive year. As recently as 2017, though, Votto hit 36 homers and was arguably the Senior Circuit’s best hitter.

While Votto still has elite plate discipline (albeit not quite to the levels he once did), that lack of impact has to be concerning to Cincinnati, which still owes him $107MM over the next four seasons. There’s reason to believe the 35 year-old can still be a valuable player (projections, at least, believe he’s still a quality hitter based on his track record), the end of that extension certainly doesn’t seem favorable for an organization finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel after a difficult decade.

O’Grady is a 27 year-old first baseman with five career MLB plate appearances, so he’s unsurprisingly not near the top of any Reds’ farm rankings. Nevertheless, he’s had a strong run at Triple-A the past year and a half.

Nationals Likely To Activate Max Scherzer Thursday

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The Nationals will likely activate ace Max Scherzer on Thursday, manager Dave Martinez tells Jamal Collier of MLB.com (via Twitter). Scherzer threw a simulated game yesterday and came out unscathed.

Of course, a Scherzer return will be a boon to a Washington club holding onto a 2.5 game in the Wild Card standings. The Nats just lost their closer and have one of the game’s worst bullpens, so their starting rotation takes on outsized importance. Scherzer, meanwhile, remains arguably baseball’s best pitcher. His 2.41 ERA is tied for second leaguewide (minimum 100 innings), while his combination of strikeouts (35.3%) and walks (4.7%) is the best in MLB. Scherzer’s been among the best pitchers of this decade, having accrued 200+ innings with an ERA of 3.15 or below every year between 2013 and 2018. While the injuries will keep him from that 200 inning mark this season, he remains dominant as ever on a rate basis, making his return one of the most noteworthy around the league as we approach the season’s stretch run.

Nationals Place Sean Doolittle On Injured List

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The Nationals announced today they have placed reliever Sean Doolittle on the 10-day injured list with right knee tendinitis. Righty Kyle McGowin is up from Double-A Harrisburg to take Doolittle’s active roster spot.

We just heard Washington was considering cutting Doolittle’s workload back in recognition of his recent downturn in performance. Doolittle and manager Dave Martinez attributed his recent struggles to a heavy workload, but evidently there’s more than mere fatigue at play.

As we covered more fully this morning, Doolittle’s results and stuff have both gone backwards in recent weeks. This will mark the sixth consecutive season in which the 32 year-old hits the IL. It’s not immediately clear where the Nationals will turn in late-game situations, but Daniel Hudson and Hunter Strickland each have closing experience. As Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post points on (on Twitter), perhaps this opens the door for veteran Greg Holland, who signed a minor-league deal with the D.C. organization after being cut loose by the Diamondbacks. Holland had a strong end to the 2018 season with the Nats after an abysmal start in St. Louis. Any Holland promotion would require a 40-man roster move.

Immediately, though, it’ll be McGowin coming up. A starter throughout his time in the minors, the 27 year-old has been used in relief in eight of his ten MLB appearances with Washington. A former fifth-rounder of the Angels, McGowin’s a sinker-slider arm, the type who typically ends up in relief, but he’s been quite good in 15 minor-league starts in 2019 split between Harrisburg and Triple-A Fresno.

For Doolittle, this seems to all but ensure he’ll be back in Washington in 2020. Doolittle’s contract comes equipped with a $6.5 million club option which turns into a mutual option if he records the final out of 16 more games this season. Even considering his abysmal August, he surely would have topped that minuscule sum on the open market, so the ability to elect free agency would’ve greatly impacted his 2020 earning power and potential destination. While there’s no timetable for his return, it’s almost impossible to imagine he’ll close out 16 games from August 27, when he’d be eligible for activation if everything goes perfectly, through the end of the season.

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