Cardinals Acquire Matt Liberatore
6:16PM: Harrison Bader and Lane Thomas aren’t expected to be part of the trade, Passan reports. Fowler also isn’t thought to be part of this deal, though he could eventually be on the move elsewhere since the Cardinals have been discussing him in other trade negotiations.
5:37PM: The trade is shaping up as a multi-player blockbuster, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links) reports that the Cardinals and Rays are each sending three “pieces” to the other in the deal. “At least two of those pieces are draft picks,” Rosenthal notes, indicating that Competitive Balance Round selections (the only type of draft picks that can be traded) are in play. The Cards are slated to pick in Competitive Balance Round A following the first round of the draft, whereas the Rays draw after the second round in Competitive Balance Round B, so there is roughly a 30-slot gap between the two picks.
4:57PM: The Cardinals have discussed Tyler O’Neill with the Rays and other teams this offseason, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports, though there isn’t yet any indication that O’Neill could be involved in the Liberatore trade.
3:53PM: The Cardinals have acquired left-hander Matthew Liberatore from the Rays, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link). The return headed back to Tampa Bay is expected to include at least one player from the Cards’ Major League roster, and hints at a very notable trade given Liberatore’s status as one of the top prospects in the Rays’ system.
Picked 16th overall in the 2018, Liberatore has gotten off to a solid start in his young career, with a 2.59 ERA, 9.2 K/9, and 2.57 K/BB rate over his first 111 professional innings. That includes a 3.10 ERA over 78 1/3 IP at the A-ball level in 2019, though Liberatore missed a bit of time with a minor back injury.
It was a performance that did nothing to dim Liberatore’s stock in the eyes of evaluators, as the most recent prospect rankings from Baseball America (31st), Baseball Prospectus (37th), MLB.com (41st), and Fangraphs (63rd) all place Liberatore solidly among the sport’s top minor leaguers. MLB Pipeline ranks Liberatore fourth on its list of the best left-handed pitching prospects, with a scouting report touting his potential for as many as three 60-grade pitches on the 20-80 scouting scale. In fact, Liberatore’s fastball, changeup, and slider all earned a 55 grade from Pipeline, while his “swing-and-miss hammer” of a curveball gets a 60 grade.
Liberatore is only 20 years old, and at 6’5″ and 200 pounds, might still need to add some bulk to withstand the workload of a Major League starting pitcher. He’ll now immediately become the most promising young arm in the St. Louis farm system, now that the likes of Jack Flaherty and Dakota Hudson have graduated to the big leagues, and Alex Reyes‘ injury concerns continues to cloud his future. Many of the Cardinals’ current top youngsters are position players, which could be addressed by whatever player or players are sent back to Tampa Bay.
As Passan notes, the Rays have been looking for outfield help, so it’s logical to guess that the outfielder-heavy Cards could be dealing from their logjam on the grass. It’s probably safe to assume that the Rays aren’t taking on Dexter Fowler‘s big contract (unless this is part of a much larger trade), but St. Louis has a wealth of younger outfielders that could be fits for Tampa Bay — Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader, Lane Thomas, Randy Arozarena, Jose Martinez, or utilityman Tommy Edman could all be part of this trade. One can’t even rule out top prospect Dylan Carlson, as while the Cardinals have been resistant to offers, it would take a promising young arm like Liberatore to even get the Cards’ attention on a Carlson deal. Still, St. Louis is probably less likely to deal a player who could help their team as early as 2020 in order to land a pitcher who is still at least a couple of years away.
Diamondbacks Sign Hector Rondon
January 9: The Diamondbacks have announced the signing.
January 8, 3:10pm: Rondon’s option is valued at $4MM and can increase to $5MM based on games finished, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link).
2:20pm: The D-backs have agreed to terms with right-handed reliever Hector Rondon on a one-year deal with a club option for the 2021 season, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports. Rondon, an Octagon client, will receive a $3MM guarantee that comes in the form of a $2.5MM salary and $500K buyout on the club option. The deal is pending a physical.
Rondon, 32 next month, spent the past two seasons with the Astros and has previously served as the closer for the Cubs. His two-year stint in Houston produced 119 2/3 innings of 3.46 ERA ball, and he averaged 8.6 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 and 1.1 HR/9 with a 48 percent ground-ball rate.
A larger payday for Rondon might’ve been in order had he not taken some notable steps back in 2019. The righty’s 7.1 K/9, 18.7 percent strikeout rate and 9.8 percent swinging-strike rate were the lowest marks of his seven-year big league career. And, after demonstrating pristine control with the Cubs in 2015-16, Rondon has continued to issue walks at roughly the league average rate dating back to the 2017 campaign.
That said, Rondon still averaged nearly 97 mph on his heater this past season and maintained a respectable 3.71 ERA. He’ll give the D-backs another experienced late-inning arm to pair with the likes of Archie Bradley and Andrew Chafin. Rondon is the second veteran arm added by general manager Mike Hazen and his staff this winter, as the team also signed former Brewers righty Junior Guerra to join the late-inning mix. There’s certainly still room for improvement and outside additions, but the bullpen has added a bit more stability without taking on a substantial financial risk.
With Rondon on board, Arizona current projects to have an Opening Day payroll of roughly $117MM, though additional roster machinations will almost certainly impact the final tabulation. It’s still possible that left-hander Robbie Ray could be marketed to other clubs as he enters his final season of team control, and the Diamondbacks could also continue to explore further bench and bullpen upgrades.
Nationals Sign Eric Thames
In a continuation of a recent signing bonanza, the Nationals announced a one-year contract with first baseman/outfielder Eric Thames. The Apex Baseball client’s contract contains a mutual option as well. Thames is reportedly guaranteed $4MM, which comes in the form of a $3MM salary and a $1MM buyout on the option.
The Nats have now added five veteran infielders on short-term deals in the past several weeks. In addition to bringing back catcher Yan Gomes and utilitymen Howie Kendrick and Asdrubal Cabrera, the club has picked up Starlin Castro and now Thames.
It’s rumored the D.C. org still intends to work something out with long-time franchise stalwart Ryan Zimmerman, leaving open the question whether a major addition at third base is still plausible. Whether there’s space for Josh Donaldson or some top-end trade target, even with a 26th active roster spot to work with, may depend upon the Nats’ willingness to utilize Kendrick and/or Thames as part of the outfield mix. Both have spent time there in the recent past but are probably best limited to duties at first base to the extent possible.
Fans of the Nats won’t be especially surprise to hear of today’s signing. President of baseball operations Mike Rizzo has made a practice of keeping a left-handed-hitting corner piece around. The role was filled most recently by Matt Adams but has also been occupied by Adam Lind, Clint Robinson, and Chad Tracy. It’s a clearer need now than ever given the otherwise mostly right-handed-hitting infield mix. (Cabrera is a switch-hitter.)
Thames, 33, was trusted to take only fifty trips to the plate against southpaws last year and didn’t fare well. But he is a weapon against right-handed pitching. He strikes out quite a bit, but also walks at an above-average rate. And he devastated opposing righties to the tune of a .254/.348/.529 slash with 23 home runs in 346 plate appearances.
It was much the same split in effectiveness in Thames’s first two seasons with the Brewers, so the Nats will anticipate much the same and pick their spots with their new slugger. He landed in Milwaukee after reviving his career in Korea, where he once even managed a 40/40 campaign. Though he hasn’t attempted many steals in the majors, Thames does grade well on the basepaths. Metrics have graded him as a roughly average performer at first base and even in the corner outfield of late.
The Brewers could’ve kept Thames at a $7.5MM price tag, but opted instead to pay him a $1MM buyout. Justin Smoak ended up inking in Milwaukee to take up the slack.
Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic first reported the agreement (via Twitter). MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter) and ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan (Twitter link) added financial details.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Nationals Re-Sign Asdrubal Cabrera
The Nationals announced Wednesday that they’ve re-signed infielder Asdrúbal Cabrera to a one-year contract. The Octagon client will reportedly be guaranteed $2.5MM and can earn an additional $500K via incentives.
Cabrera, 34, latched on with the Nats in August. He was fantastic for the eventual World Series champs down the stretch, putting up a .323/.404/.565 line over 146 plate appearances. Of course, that doesn’t tell the whole story of Cabrera’s season. He compiled a meager .235/.318/.393 slash in Texas. The Rangers released him the first week of August, presumably after finding nothing to their liking before the July 31 trade deadline. Cabrera’s .260/.342/.441 cumulative performance (98 wRC+) was almost exactly league average.
Coupled with still-solid defensive metrics at second and third, Cabrera was worth just under two wins above replacement (1.7 bWAR, 1.9 fWAR) in 131 games. If he can replicate that solid production in 2020, he’d be a bargain on such a low-cost deal. Of course, Cabrera’s age, slow start and the saturated free agent market for infielders combined to limit his earning power.
The signing is perhaps more interesting from a broader market perspective. Cabrera and Starlin Castro, who agreed to a two-year deal with Washington yesterday, are both solid players who now look to be in line to contribute on a more-or-less everyday basis. Yet they’re not the marquee players some Nats’ fans may have been hoping for once Anthony Rendon left.
Washington looks to be one of the finalists for Josh Donaldson. The top free agent still on the market, Donaldson is reportedly sitting on multiple four-year offers, waiting for someone to match his asking price. At one point, the Nats themselves put forth a four-year proposal. It isn’t clear whether that specific offer remains on the table following the club’s recent moves.
That said, neither Castro nor Cabrera should prevent the Nats from adding Donaldson from a financial perspective. And Washington could certainly push one or both into complimentary roles to fit a player of Donaldson’s caliber on the roster. Indeed, Jim Bowden of the Athletic hears that Washington isn’t necessarily out on Donaldson.
The club’s recent moves, however, at least give them a safety net should they miss out on the Bringer of Rain (or one of the trade market’s top options). Between Castro, Cabrera, Howie Kendrick and Carter Kieboom, Washington has myriad in-house options capable of manning second and third base. Perhaps that gives them a bit less urgency than other clubs searching for upgrades on the dirt- most notably, the Braves, Rangers, and Twins- to meet the lofty acquisition cost each player would certainly require.
Robert Murray first reported (via Twitter) that the two sides were close to a deal. Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported the agreement and the terms (all Twitter links).
Brewers Extend Craig Counsell
The Brewers have announced a new contract with manager Craig Counsell, as first reported by Robert Murray (Twitter link). It’s said to take the skipper through the 2023 season.
Counsell, 49, was already under contract through the 2020 campaign under the extension he reached in the fall of 2016. He was originally hired in the midst of the 2015 season, replacing the fired Ron Roenicke.
While he predates GM David Stearns, the two have seemingly worked together seamlessly in Milwaukee. Since a losing 2016 season, the organization has turned in three consecutive winners and two-straight postseason appearances.
The Brewers narrowly won the NL Central in 2018 and grabbed a Wild Card in the just-completed campaign. While the club has had some disappointment in the postseason — falling short in seven games against the Dodgers in the 2018 NLCS and then faltering late in the 2019 Wild Card game to the eventual World Series champion Nationals — that’s the fate of all but one team every season.
It’s inarguable that the Stearns-Counsell combination has been a successful one thus far. The latter has now been voted the runner-up in the National League Manager of the Year race in consecutive seasons.
Despite the good results, there’ll be loads of new faces in uniform when camp opens next month. The Brewers model under Stearns has been to swap out parts as needed to ensure cost-efficiency. But this winter has seen more turnover than before and left the club with a mix-and-match roster that’ll require rather active day-to-day management during the season. It’ll be Counsell’s job not only to meld the new pieces together in the clubhouse, but deploy them in the most advantageous manner in 2020.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Rangers To Sign Robinson Chirinos
8:44pm: MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets that Chirinos is guaranteed $6.75MM on the deal: a $5.75MM salary in 2020 (which matches his 2019 salary), plus at least a $1MM buyout on a $6.5MM club option for the 2021 season.
8:36pm: Chirinos and the Rangers are in agreement on a one-year deal plus an option, tweets T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com.
8:28pm: The Rangers and free-agent catcher Robinson Chirinos have agreed to a reunion, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). The new contract is pending a physical. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported earlier tonight that the two sides were “inching closer” to a deal.
Chirinos, 35, just wrapped up a .238/.347/.443 showing with the Astros, swatting 17 home runs and 22 doubles in a career-high 366 plate appearances. Even if he takes a step back, Chirinos will provide a substantial offensive upgrade to a Rangers club that saw its catchers post a disastrous .193/.241/.298 batting line as a whole in 2019.
Texas made the somewhat surprising decision last winter to buy out a seemingly reasonable $4.5MM option over Chirinos. Texas, placing a greater emphasis on defense, moved to sign Jeff Mathis to a two-year, $6.25MM deal that yielded poor results in 2019. Chirinos, meanwhile, came out ahead from a financial standpoint. Texas paid him a $1MM buyout, and he went on to sign with the Astros for a $5.75MM guarantee. Between that deal and the option buyout, he took home a tidy $2.25MM more than he’d have earned had the Rangers simply picked up his option.
Now, Texas is on the hook for $3MM of Mathis’ salary in 2020 despite the fact that he turned in the worst offensive and defensive season of his career in 2019. Through 244 plate appearances, Mathis posted a stunning .158/.209/.224 batting line (11 OPS+, 2 wRC+). And just one year after leading all MLB catchers in Defensive Runs Saved (17) and Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average (18.4), Mathis saw those numbers crater at -1 and -2.8, respectively.
The Rangers will have to make a call on what to do with Mathis and his remaining salary, although it’s possible that he could work as a backup to Chirinos. The younger Jose Trevino has a minor league option remaining, so he could be sent to Triple-A to begin the season, particularly considering that he struggled considerably both in the Majors (.258/.272/.383 in 126 plate appearances) and in Triple-A (.226/.263/.336 in 156 plate appearances).
Given the dismal performances of Mathis, Trevino and infielder-turned-catcher-turned-infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa in 2019, it’s hardly a surprise that the Rangers prioritized catching help this winter. And while Chirinos isn’t exactly a standout defensive backstop, he did show some improvements in 2019 with Houston. He hasn’t excelled at controlling the running game since 2014, and that trend continued last year (21 percent caught-stealing rate), but Chirinos posted improved (albeit still below-average) framing marks and was the league’s best at blocking balls in the dirt, per Baseball Prospectus.
Dodgers Sign Jimmy Nelson
6:35pm: The Dodgers have announced the signing.
9:45am: The Dodgers have reached a one-year deal with righty Jimmy Nelson, according to Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link). The contract includes a $1.25MM guarantee and the possibility of greater earnings, including a vesting/mutual option for another season, according to Castillo, Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter links), and MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy (Twitter links).
Nelson will reportedly be promised just $750K this year. But he’ll earn $1MM in incentives if he makes the Opening Day roster and $500K apiece if he remains on it for 45 and 90 days. Further incentives could also add $1.5MM to Nelson’s 2020 earnings.
As for the option, it will start out as a $2MM club option with a $500K buyout that makes up the remainder of the guaranteed cash. If Nelson throws sixty innings and/or makes forty appearances, it’ll convert to a $5MM mutual option. That price can reach as much as $9MM if Nelson throws 170 frames for Los Angeles in the coming season.
Once a foundational player in Milwaukee, Nelson was non-tendered by the Brewers in December when the club deemed his projected $3.7MM salary too steep. That decision came on the heels of two injury-ruined campaigns.
Nelson did get back on the hill in 2019 after missing the entirety of the prior season, but allowed 17 runs over 22 frames. While he racked up 26 strikeouts in that span but also coughed up 17 walks and four long balls.
It’s hard to know what to expect out of Nelson, who’s now thirty years of age. He exhibited a fairly significant velocity loss but still sat at around 93 mph in 2019. He dove in both first-strike rate (50.5%) and chase rate (23.6%), suggesting some reduction of command, pitch quality, and/or confidence. But Statcast still identified well-above-average spin on Nelson’s pitches.
It will be interesting to watch whether Nelson can return from the shoulder and elbow woes that derailed his career. It’s equally fascinating to see another upside pitching play from a Dodgers organization that has otherwise remained quiet this winter. While the club continues to explore major additions, it has yet to pull off a big strike this winter.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Angels Sign Jason Castro
The Angels will have yet another new Opening Day catcher, as they announced Tuesday the signing of veteran backstop Jason Castro to a one-year contract. Castro, an ISE Baseball client, will reportedly be guaranteed $6.85MM before reentering the market next winter.
The signing helps Los Angeles upgrade its weakest position from the 2019 season, as Angels catchers (with Jonathan Lucroy, Kevan Smith, and Dustin Garneau had much of the playing time) combined for negative-0.7 bWAR. While virtually anything would’ve been an improvement over that sub-replacement level total, Castro brings a solid track record of success, with 12 bWAR/14.5 fWAR over the course of his nine seasons in the majors.
Much of that value has come from outstanding pitch-framing, and generally good blocking statistics despite a down year in that category in 2018. However, last season saw Castro enjoy his best year at the plate since 2013, as Castro hit .232/.332/.435 with 13 home runs over 275 plate appearances for Minnesota. Though the veteran backstop lost playing time due to Mitch Garver‘s big season, it was still a nice bounce-back year for Castro after knee surgery limited him to just 19 games in 2018.
MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents ranking correctly predicted a deal between Castro (34th on our list) and the Angels, and his one-year, $6.85MM pact topped our two-year/$10MM projection in terms of average annual value, if not in term length. While it is perhaps understanding that teams were wary of committing multiple years to a 32-year-old catcher with a torn meniscus on his injury history, it is maybe still a bit of a surprise that Castro wasn’t able to get more than one year given the dearth of other catching options on the market.
The Rangers, Rays, Rockies, and Pirates are among the clubs with notable needs behind the plate, and now Robinson Chirinos (who could be close to a deal himself) stands out as the clear top choice remaining. Should Texas miss out on Chirinos, the Angels will have done well to secure a solid veteran catcher ahead of their AL West rivals.
Castro is the latest notable addition for Angels GM Billy Eppler in a winter that has already seen Anthony Rendon, Julio Teheran, and Dylan Bundy head to Anaheim. While the Halos are known to still be looking for more rotation help, the addition of an excellent pitch-framer like Castro should also help the staff prevent runs.
ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan first reported the agreement and the terms (Twitter link).
Nationals Sign Starlin Castro
JANUARY 7: This deal is now official.
JANUARY 3: The Nationals have a deal with infielder Starlin Castro, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). It’s a two-year arrangement, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link). The deal promises the Magnus Sports client $12MM, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter).
Castro will be tasked with handling second base for the defending World Series champs. Fellow free agents Brian Dozier and Asdrubal Cabrera handled most of the work at that position last year in D.C.
The Nationals have seen plenty of Castro over the past several seasons, as he has appeared with the division-rival Marlins. He has had ups and downs over the years, but has always showed up — averaging 149 games per season since 2011 — and typically delivered a useful combination of league-average offensive production and average glovework. Poorly graded baserunning has long been a bit of a drag on his overall value.
It’s not an exciting signing, by any stretch, but does check a box for the Nats. And perhaps the club sees reason to hope for a bit more out of Castro. He’s still just 29 years of age and vastly increased his offensive productivity in the second half of the 2019 campaign. In his final 285 plate appearances of the year, he slashed a hefty .302/.334/.558 with 16 long balls. He’s never going to draw many walks, so the question is Castro can continue to make better contact — both harder and higher — and thus maintain a meaningful portion of that second-half power outburst.
Even if Castro enters the season as the presumptive second baseman, he could ultimately move into a more flexible role — especially if top prospect Carter Kieboom forces his way into an everyday role. Castro has plenty of experience on the left side of the infield and could become part of a timeshare at third base if that becomes desirable (whether in the first or second year of the deal). Castro would pair well with a lefty hitter, as he has long been much more dangerous against southpaws.
As things stand, the Nats would rely upon the switch-hitting Wilmer Difo to spell Castro and shortstop Trea Turner. The team could pursue an upgrade over Difo. It might also add a more offensive-oriented player who can spend time at first base. There could be some overlap there, as well. The team’s ultimate moves at third base — Josh Donaldson remains the chief target, with a few major trade candidates also possible — may end up dictating the finishing touches on the bench. Whether or not Ryan Zimmerman ends up returning will also be a factor.
White Sox To Sign Steve Cishek
The White Sox have reached a deal with free agent reliever Steve Cishek, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter). He’ll be guaranteed $6MM in the pact, which per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link) includes his 2020 salary and a $750K buyout of a $6.75MM option.
It’s a move that reflects the shifting tides of Chicago’s two sides. Cishek had stabilized the Cubs’ pen for the past two years. With his former team pressing up against its budget ceiling, he’ll cross town to take up a late-inning role with a White Sox organization that is hopeful of a breakout 2020 campaign.
Cishek has sidearmed his way through an awful lot of good innings over ten seasons in the majors. He has worked to a 2.69 ERA in 556 total frames and never once finished a full season with an ERA over 3.58. Having picked up 132 saves along the way, Cishek is no stranger to high-leverage spots.
Can the South Siders expect more of the same? There are conflicting signs. Cishek’s strikeout rate has wavered over time; last year’s 10.5% K%-BB% was a personal low. But he still generated grounders on half of the balls put in play against him, limited the long ball nearly as well as ever (at least compared to the league average), and held opponents to a sub-.250 BABIP for the fourth-straight season. Statcast identified some good fortune (.285 wOBA-against; .313 xwOBA-against) but found that Cishek was elite at limiting hard contact (25.9%) and exit velo (84.5 mph).
It’s ultimately hard to argue with the results, even if they haven’t always quite been supported by the peripherals. Cishek doesn’t throw hard but generates lots of spin. He’s an unconventional pitcher who has proven consistently capable of befuddling MLB hitters. He’s unquestionably better against same-handed hitters, though that’s true of most hurlers.
Cishek may not on the upswing at 33 years of age. But he’s a nice get on a one-year deal. That suits the needs of a White Sox organization that wants to boost its immediate chances without risking too much future payroll space on veteran players.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.