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Phillies Sign David Robertson

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7:00pm: Robertson’s deal does contain a range of incentives, per Jon Heyman of Fancred. The 33-year-old will be awarded $50K each for an All-Star appearance, Gold Glove award, or League Championship Series MVP award, and $100K if he’s awarded MVP of the World Series or wins the Cy Young (plus $50K for finishing second, and $25K for a third-place finish). He’ll also donate 1% of his salary to the team’s charity fund.

1:00pm: The Phillies have announced the signing. Because they had two open spots on the 40-man roster, a corresponding move was not necessary.

12:29pm: The Phillies have agreed to a two-year, $23MM contract with free-agent reliever David Robertson, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (via Twitter). The contract contains a $12MM club option for a third season, and Robertson has already passed his physical. He’ll earn $10MM in 2019, $11MM in 2020 and is guaranteed at least a $2MM buyout on the 2021 option. If the option is picked up, the self-represented Robertson would take home a total of $33MM over three years.

David Robertson | Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports

Robertson, 33, has been among the game’s most consistent relievers since emerging as a regular more than a decade ago. He’s totaled at least 60 innings and 60 appearances per season dating back to 2010 and hasn’t been on the disabled list since 2014, when he missed the minimum amount of time due to a mild groin strain.

Robertson is fresh off a quality 3.23 ERA with 11.8 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9 and a 45.3 percent ground-ball rate in 69 2/3 innings with the Yankees. He kept his ERA south of 3.50 and averaged at least 10.8 punchouts per nine innings in all four seasons of his the four-year $46MM pact he signed with the White Sox. His 2017 season — 1.84 ERA, 12.9 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 2.57 FIP, 2.76 xFIP through 68 1/3 innings between Chicago and New York — was particularly brilliant.

After spending his entire career to date in the American League, Robertson will head to the National League for the first time, where he’ll pair with breakout 2018 rookie Seranthony Dominguez at the back of a Philadelphia bullpen that also features veterans Tommy Hunter, Pat Neshek and Juan Nicasio, in addition to lefties James Pazos and Jose Alvarez. Hector Neris, Edubray Ramos, Yacksel Rios and Victor Arano are among the other bullpen options for the Phillies, but it presently stands to reason that Dominguez and Robertson will team to handle the majority of the high-leverage innings in Philadelphia.

To that end, Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer tweets that the Phillies’ intention with Robertson is to use him “whenever the game is on the line, regardless of inning.” That should put Robertson firmly in the mix for some saves in Philadelphia, but he’ll also likely be called upon to help escape jams earlier in the game. In those instances, Dominguez could then be in line for more conventional save opportunities.

Robertson is the latest addition in an offseason that has been rife with turnover for the Phillies after GM Matt Klentak promised changes were coming on the heels of a historic late collapse. Since their season ended in catastrophic fashion, the Phillies have shipped out Carlos Santana, signed Andrew McCutchen and acquired each of Nicasio, Pazos and Jean Segura on the trade market. The heaviest lifting for the Phillies may very well be yet to come, though, as the Phillies have been linked to top free agents Bryce Harper and Manny Machado more strongly than virtually any team in baseball.

The Robertson contract falls rather closely in line with the two-year, $25MM contract that Andrew Miller landed with the Cardinals, perhaps further serving to establish the market for the tier of veteran relievers just below top available arm Craig Kimbrel. The Phillies and Yankees were both rumored to be in the mix for Robertson, Zach Britton and Adam Ottavino, so with Robertson now off the board, both Britton and Ottavino could see their markets accelerate.

Fancred’s Jon Heyman first suggested that a deal between the two sides appeared to be getting close (via Twitter), and The Athletic’s Jayson Stark had reported shortly beforehand that there was “lots” of talk surrounding the Phillies and Robertson (Twitter links).

Yankees Reportedly “Focused” On Zach Britton

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2:45pm: Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Yankees “seem focused” on Britton in their pursuit of bullpen upgrades, though he adds that the lefty is “believed” to have multiple offers in hand.

2:08pm: Today’s agreement between the Phillies and David Robertson could accelerate the market for lefty Zach Britton, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets that Britton “looks like the next reliever to go.” Britton was a known target of the Phillies before they signed Robertson and of the Cardinals before they signed Andrew Miller, and Passan adds that Britton has “been in discussions” with the Yankees recently. The Athletic’s Jayson Stark tweeted this morning, too, that the Yankees are “heavily focused” on the bullpen market at the moment and listed Britton as a target.

As with any free agent, the asking price is a key, however, and Stark tweets that Britton and agent Scott Boras have been holding out for a four-year guarantee. That’s a huge ask for any reliever but particularly for one with Britton’s recent track record. Though there was a strong argument to be made that as recently as 2016, Britton was baseball’s premier reliever, the past two seasons have been decidedly less successful. Britton missed significant time in 2017 due to forearm issues and missed the first half of the 2018 campaign while recovering from surgery to repair a ruptured Achilles tendon suffered in offseason workouts.

Because of those injuries, Britton has been limited to just 78 innings across the past two seasons and has had decidedly mixed results along the way. He’s registered a sharp 3.00 ERA in that time but also had diminished strikeout and walk numbers (7.3 K/9, 4.5 BB/9). Britton’s swinging-strike rate is down nearly five percent from its 17.2 percent peak in 2016, and his chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone has plummeted from a career-high 38.7 percent in 2015 to 29.5 percent last season. Velocity, too, has served as a red flag. Though Britton’s infamous sinker gained some speed as the 2018 season wore on and he distanced himself from that Achilles surgery, even his end-of-season velocity was well south of the 97.1 mph he averaged on his sinker in 2016.

None of that is to say that Britton is no longer a quality bullpen option. Even with diminished results, he’s still elite in terms of inducing ground-balls, limiting hard contact and avoiding the long ball. Given that he only just turned 31, it’s certainly plausible that a full offseason of rest and regular workouts could allow Britton to return to the pre-injury form he displayed from 2014-16 when he posted an unthinkable 1.38 ERA with a nearly 80 percent ground-ball rate, better than a strikeout per inning (9.3 K/9) and strong control (2.4 BB/9) through a span of 209 innings.

In that sense, Britton possesses a higher ceiling than any available reliever. However, his two most recent seasons should create some real cause for concern. Relievers with red flags can certainly still get paid — Miller secured a $25MM guarantee over two years from the Cardinals on the heels of an injury-marred season of his own — but a four-year pact would be a particularly strong outcome for a pitcher whose recent performance simply hasn’t aligned with his name value.

Angels Sign Jonathan Lucroy

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January 2, 5:26 pm: Fancred’s Jon Heyman has the full breakdown of incentives in Lucroy’s deal. The backstop will stand to make $50K if he notches 100 starts in 2019, $75K each for hitting the 105, 110, 115, 120, 125, and 130 games started marks, and $100K if he starts 135 games. He’ll also earn $50K each for notching 350 and 375 plate appearances, respectively, and $75K if he accrues 400, 425, 450, 475 and 500 PA. In the event he reaches the 525 PA plateau, the 32-year-old will earn an extra $100K.

December 28, 9:58pm: Factoring in incentives, the max value of Lucroy’s deal is $4.525MM, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets.

December 28, 7:36pm: The Angels have agreed to a one-year, $3.35MM guarantee with free-agent catcher Jonathan Lucroy, who has already taken a physical, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets. Jon Heyman of Fancred first reported the two sides were closing in on a contract. Lucroy, a client of Excel Sports Management, will have a chance to earn upward of $4MM on his new deal, according to Passan.

The 32-year-old Lucroy will stay in the American League West, where he played with the Rangers from 2016-17 and the Athletics last season. After a down 2017 split between Texas and Colorado, the former Brewers star had to settle for a one-year, $6.5MM guarantee with the A’s just a few weeks before the 2018 campaign started. Lucroy ended up drawing raves from his teammates and coaches in Oakland, which surprisingly earned a wild-card berth. However, he easily endured the worst statistical season of his career.

Once among the majors’ elite all-around backstops, Lucroy limped to a .241/.291/.325 line across 454 plate appearances last year. Of hitters who racked up at least 400 PAs, he ranked sixth from the bottom in ISO (.084) and ninth last in wRC+ (70), continuing an abrupt fall from grace for someone who was a formidable offensive presence as recently as 2016. Worsening matters, for the second straight year, the former pitch-framing darling had extreme difficulty as a defender, according to Baseball Prospectus. To Lucroy’s credit, though, he did throw out an above-average 30 percent of would-be base stealers.

Despite his issues over the past couple years, it appears the Angels will count on Lucroy to play an important role in 2019. The club entered Friday with no truly established options behind the plate, as Kevan Smith (497 major league PAs) and Jose Briceno (128) were the lone catchers on its 40-man roster. Given that Smith’s out of minor league options, it’s likely he has the inside track to back up Lucroy. But whether Lucroy’s a significant enough pickup for the Angels to stop seeking help at the position is debatable. In the event the Halos are content with Lucroy, Smith and Briceno, it’ll remove a suitor for the top free-agent catcher available, Yasmani Grandal, whom they’ve reportedly chased.

For the Angels, the Lucroy signing is the fourth notable move they’ve made in free agency this winter. The team previously inked first baseman Justin Bour and a pair of right-handers in Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill – all of whom also received one-year commitments. The Angels have been linked to other free agents – including reliever David Robertson and infielder Josh Harrison on Friday – and considering they still have obvious needs, general manager Billy Eppler may not be done this offseason. For now, the Angels’ hope is that their quartet of free-agent additions will help provide a better supporting cast to the game’s foremost player, center fielder Mike Trout, as he heads into his penultimate year of team control. The Angels have managed just one postseason trip and zero playoff wins since the future Hall of Famer debuted in 2011, and they’re currently mired in a four-year drought.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Mariners Sign Yusei Kikuchi

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The Mariners have spent much of the offseason making trades to aggressively reshape their roster, but they announced on Wednesday what figures to be one of the largest pitching signings of the offseason: a four-year contract for free-agent left-hander Yusei Kikuchi. The Scott Boras client, who had been posted for MLB clubs by the Seibu Lions of Nippon Professional Baseball, will reportedly receive a guaranteed $56MM on a uniquely structured contract.

The first three years of Kikuchi’s contract will reportedly pay him $43MM, and at that point he’ll have a player option for the 2022 season that is valued at $13MM. However, the Mariners can also preemptively exercise a four-year club option on Kikuchi that would promise him an additional $66MM. In doing so, they’d effectively be extending his contract to a seven-year, $109MM deal. Conceptually, the deal is similar to the contract that Boras brokered between the Phillies and Jake Arrieta last year, though the overall length of the two pacts differs (as one would expect give the age discrepancy between the two).

Kikuchi, 27, was one of the more intriguing players available on this year’s free-agent market. He was free to sign with any team that he wanted after being posted by the Lions, but he had until early January to come to terms with a new team after being posted in early December, as the current posting agreement between Major League Baseball and NPB gives MLB clubs a 30-day window from the onset of the posting period. As part of that agreement, the Mariners will pay the Lions a release fee equal to 20 percent of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5 percent of the next $25MM and 15 percent of anything on top of that. In other words, the Mariners are effectively agreeing to pay the Lions as much as $10.275MM on top of Kikuchi’s guarantee. If the four-year option/extension is picked up in 2022, they’d pay the Lions a total of $19.725MM in addition to the full $109MM guaranteed to Kikuchi.

The connection between Kikuchi and the M’s has long been obvious, particularly since the organization has made no secret of its interest. Though the Seattle club has made clear it’s taking a step back from competitiveness, it hopes to bounce back to contention by 2020 or 2021. That has been a driving factor in Seattle’s acquisition of young, controllable players such as Mallex Smith, Omar Narvaez, Domingo Santana, J.P. Crawford and Justus Sheffield.

The still-youthful Kikuchi seems to fit that timeline. It’s also hard to ignore the simple geographical match. Seattle and other west coast clubs are more convenient locales for Japanese players; the M’s have previously enjoyed positive stints from players such as Ichiro Suzuki and Hisashi Iwakuma and were selected as a finalist for Shohei Ohtani’s services last winter as well.

The addition of Kikuchi will give the Mariners’ rotation some upside to line up alongside young southpaw Marco Gonzales and veteran hurlers Felix Hernandez, Mike Leake and Wade LeBlanc. Bringing Kikuchi into the fold will give the Mariners the luxury of being able to ease Sheffield and/or righty Erik Swanson (acquired alongside Sheffield in the James Paxton swap with the Yankees) into the mix rather than forcing one or both into the rotation out of necessity. Of course, that complexion could still change over the course of the offseason; the Mariners are reportedly still exploring the market for Leake and other veterans.

Over the past four seasons, Kikuchi has worked to a pristine 2.58 ERA with averages of 8.9 strikeouts, 3.1 walks and 0.68 home runs per nine innings pitched. He’s said to have a fastball in the low to mid 90s and multiple average-or-better secondary offerings to pair with that heater. Though the M’s are committing a fairly substantial sum to a pitcher who is largely a wildcard, if Kikuchi is able to find success at the MLB level, that contract could quickly become a bargain. And while that $56MM guarantee is fairly hefty for a player who has yet to throw a pitch in the Majors, it’s more along the lines of the contract a mid-rotation starter would expect to receive on the open market here. If Kikuchi can prove himself as a quality big league arm, it’s quite possible that there’ll even be surplus value on the deal.

The Kikuchi signing is somewhat of a rarity among non-contending clubs these days: a move designed to improve the team for the upcoming season even as it looks to retool/rebuild its organization for the long haul. In an era of tanking teams that are motivated by a collective bargaining agreement that heavily incentivizes losing, few teams make this type of investment early in the rebuilding (or, to use GM Jerry Dipoto’s term, “re-imagining”) process. But the acquisition of Kikuchi and the focus on MLB-ready or near-MLB assets in the majority of the growing web of trades Dipoto has made this winter do all speak to the fact that, as opposed to the arduous multi-year rebuilds on which so many other organizations have embarked, the Mariners hope to be competitive far sooner than later.

Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports first reported that the two sides were nearing a deal (Twitter link). Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweeted that the two sides had reached an agreement. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reported the length of the contract (via Twitter), and Heyman added further details on the contract structure (also via Twitter).

Twins Sign Nelson Cruz

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TODAY: The Twins have officially announced Cruz’s signing.

DEC.27: The Twins are in agreement on a contract with free-agent slugger Nelson Cruz, reports Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter). It’s a one-year deal with an option for a second season, according to Fancred’s Jon Heyman (on Twitter). Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes further reports that Cruz will earn $14MM in 2019, and the contract contains a $12MM club option with a $300K buyout (Twitter link). Cruz is represented by the Primo Sports Group.

Nelson Cruz | Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports

Cruz, 38, was frequently linked to the Twins throughout the offseason. Minnesota stood out as a logical landing spot for the ultra-consistent slugger, as one of the few teams with a clear vacancy at designated hitter following the retirement of Joe Mauer and the decision to decline a club option over Logan Morrison. That pairing of Mauer and Morrison, then, will be swapped out for a more powerful combo of Cruz and C.J. Cron, whom Minnesota picked up from the Rays earlier this offseason.

Although he’s well into his late 30s, Cruz has shown little to no semblance of decline. His four-year, $57MM contract with the Mariners raised some eyebrows initially, but he not only lived up to every bit of that deal but actually provided Seattle with a fair bit of excess value. Over the life of that four-year pact, Cruz raked at a .284/.362/.546 pace despite playing half his games at Seattle’s pitcher-friendly Safeco Field. Cruz’s .256/.342/.509 batting line from 2018 was the weakest output of his four seasons in Seattle, but that was largely attributable to an uncharacteristic dip in his average on balls in play (.264 in 2018; .305 career). That BABIP drop came despite the fact that Cruz actually increased his hard-hit rate over his 2017 levels.

Adding Cruz will presumably push fellow righty slugger Tyler Austin into a bench role; the 27-year-old Austin showed huge power with the Twins following a midseason acquisition but remained strikeout-prone and OBP challenged. He can spell either of Cron or Cruz from time to time and has some corner outfield experience in the minors as well.

With Cruz in the fold, the Twins’ lineup will have the potential for quite a bit of power — particularly from the right side of the dish. Cruz has averaged 41 homers per season over the past half-decade, and he’ll slot into the heart of the order alongside Cron (30 homers in 2018) and Miguel Sano, who hit 28 home runs in just 114 games for the Twins in 2017

Of course, Sano’s status is one of the true mysteries for Minnesota heading into 2019; a fractured shin suffered by Sano late in 2017 ultimately led to offseason surgery that saw a titanium rod inserted into his leg, which prevented him from a full offseason of conditioning. If the lingering effects of that surgery are behind him and Sano can return to something approximating his 2017 levels of production, the Twins will possess a trio of right-handed sluggers to pair with lefty-swinging Eddie Rosario. Given the uncertainty surrounding Sano, Byron Buxton and fellow free-agent signing Jonathan Schoop, adding a player with Cruz’s perennial stability is all the more important for the Twins.

Financially speaking, the Twins can easily afford to add Cruz at $14MM for the upcoming season and still make additional moves. Cruz’s contract will boost the Twins’ 2019 payroll to just north of $100MM — a mark that is well shy of both the $112.6MM they’ve averaged over the past four seasons and the $128.7MM payroll they carried into the 2018 season a year ago. Beyond that, the fact that Cruz was added on a one-year guarantee means that the Twins still don’t have a single guaranteed contract on the books for the 2020 season, leaving them with more flexibility than any team in the Majors from a long-term vantage point.

Further additions would appear prudent for Minnesota. Though the Twins had a disappointing 2018 season, the American League Central still looks quite weak. The Tigers are still in the midst of a full-scale rebuilding effort, and though the Royals have indicated that they’ll aim to be more competitive in 2019, they’re in a largely similar situation. The White Sox have been rebuilding for a longer period of time and are showing signs of pushing closer to contention, but the 2020 season likely presents a more realistic timetable for the South Siders. Even the Indians, who have won three consecutive division titles, have weakened their roster to an extent this offseason, which at least creates an opportunity for the Twins to make another relatively surprising run. They’ll need bouncebacks from Sano and Buxton and could stand to further augment the pitching staff, though as noted above, they certainly have the financial resources available to make those moves.

Blue Jays Sign Matt Shoemaker

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3:25pm: Shoemaker will earn an additional $250K if he gets to 150, 160, 170 or 180 innings, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets.

12:20pm: The Blue Jays have announced the signing.

10:24am: Shoemaker can earn an additional $1MM via incentives, Passan tweets, which would push his 2019 earnings up into the same range as his previous arbitration projection.

9:50am: The contract will pay Shoemaker $3.5MM, tweets Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.

9:25am: Shoemaker’s guarantee falls in the $3MM to $3.5MM range, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi.

8:51am: The Blue Jays are in agreement on a one-year, Major League contract with free-agent righty Matt Shoemaker, reports Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter). Toronto has an open spot on the 40-man roster, so a corresponding roster move won’t be necessary. Shoemaker is represented by ISE Baseball.

Matt Shoemaker | John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

Shoemaker, 32, was a late addition to the free-agent market on Nov. 30 after the Angels decided to non-tender the oft-injured righty rather than pay him a projected $4.3MM salary in arbitration.Because of that non-tender, he ht the open market with four years, 166 days of Major League service time under his belt, meaning he’ll be controllable through the 2020 season, via arbitration, if he can reestablish himself in Toronto.

A series of forearm strains torpedoed Shoemaker’s 2017-18 seasons, limiting him to just 108 2/3 innings over that two-year span. He wasn’t especially effective in that time, either, pitching to a combined 4.64 ERA (4.62 FIP) with 8.4 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and an ugly 1.5 HR/9 mark.

That said, there’s also reason for optimism with Shoemaker. Though his 4.94 ERA in 31 innings this past season won’t impress anyone, he averaged a career-high 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings in that brief span and recorded a career-best 13.6 percent swinging-strike rate, as well. Perhaps there’s some small-sample noise at play there, but Shoemaker’s splitter was a demonstrably more effective pitch in his limited time on the mound in his final season with the Halos.

It’s also worth noting, of course, that Shoemaker was a solid mid-rotation starter for the Angels from 2013-16, working to a combined 3.75 ERA (3.76 FIP) with averages of eight strikeouts, 1.9 walks and 1.2 home runs per nine innings pitched.

Shoemaker figures to slot into a rotation that also includes Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez and Ryan Borucki, with right-hander Sean Reid-Foley and southpaw Thomas Pannone vying for the fifth spot in new skipper Charlie Montoyo’s starting five.

Nationals Sign Anibal Sanchez

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The Nationals on Thursday announced the signing of free-agent righty Anibal Sanchez, to a two-year contract with a club option for a third season. Sanchez is said to be guaranteed $19MM on the contract, which reportedly contains some relatively minimal deferrals. Sanchez is represented by agent Gene Mato.

Anibal Sanchez | Courtesy of Nationals Communications

Sanchez, 35 in February, will reportedly earn a $6MM salary in 2019, $7MM in 2020 and will have the additional $6MM of his $19MM guarantee deferred to 2021. That leaves the Nats with more financial breathing room as they look to continue adding to the 2019 roster, although it doesn’t lower the luxury tax hit that comes with Sanchez’s contract. The 2021 club option is valued at $12MM, and Sanchez can reportedly earn another $4MM of incentives.

Sanchez steps into the rotation spot that was recently vacated when Tanner Roark was traded to the Reds. While Sanchez, it seems, won’t come to the Nats at a significantly lower rate than the $9.8MM at which Roark was projected (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz). However, unlike Roark, who exhibited numerous red flags in 2018 (e.g. diminished velocity, strikeout, home-run and ground-ball rates), Sanchez enjoyed a legitimate renaissance with the Braves in 2018 and looks in many regards to be trending back up.

After joining the Braves on a minor league contract in Spring Training, the veteran Sanchez not only worked his way onto the roster but emerged as one of Atlanta’s most reliable arms. In 136 2/3 innings, the former Marlins/Tigers hurler worked to a terrific 2.83 ERA with 8.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.99 HR/9 and a 45 percent ground-ball rate.

While Sanchez undoubtedly has his skeptics given the dreadful manner in which his time with the Tigers ended, a look at his secondary metrics and pitch selection gives every reason to continue to be optimistic in 2019. Sanchez dramatically ramped up the usage of his cutter this past season, leading to increases in both his swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates. Where Sanchez truly shined, however, was not necessarily in terms of missing bats (though his strikeout rate was strong) but rather in terms of generating weak contact. Per Statcast data, no qualified starting pitcher in baseball had a lower average exit velocity on balls in play than Sanchez, and no pitcher in the game allowed less hard contact than the minuscule 25.8 percent clip that Sanchez yielded.

Clearly, the Nationals are buying the new and improved version of Sanchez. While there’s likely some regression in store — it’s not reasonable to expect him to replicate a league-best ability to minimize hard contact, and Sanchez did benefit from both a 79 percent strand rate and .255 average on balls in play — at two years and a total of $19MM, the Nats aren’t exactly paying him to be the dominant buzzsaw that he was in Atlanta this past season. If Sanchez can even function as a competent mid-rotation piece, that’d be a more than acceptable price to pay. And, if he outperforms Roark by any appreciable sum, then the decision to jettison him in favor of Sanchez will look all the more shrewd, given the comparable salary figures.

[Related: Updated Washington Nationals depth chart and Nationals payroll outlook]

Sanchez will slot into the Nationals’ rotation behind a stacked top three that features three-time Cy Young winner/future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer, former No. 1 overall pick Stephen Strasburg and 2018 breakout star Patrick Corbin — another offseason addition for general manager Mike Rizzo and his staff. That quartet, paired with one of Joe Ross, Erick Fedde or perhaps another yet-to-be-acquired starting pitcher, should comprise one of the game’s most formidable starting staffs as the Nationals look to reemerge as contenders in an increasingly difficult division on the heels of a down year for the organization.

From a 2019 payroll vantage point, this deal won’t likely change much from the way things looked a week ago, prior to the trade of Roark, and the same is largely true with regard to the Nationals’ luxury tax ledger. As such, the addition of Sanchez shouldn’t have any impact on the Nationals’ ability to make another run at retaining Bryce Harper, though recent comments from managing principal owner Mark Lerner suggest that Harper’s time with the Nats may indeed be up.

If that’s indeed the case, the organization will have essentially spread out much of the money that could’ve gone to Harper across a number of offseason additions, having already signed Corbin, Sanchez, Kurt Suzuki and Trevor Rosenthal in addition to trading for Kyle Barraclough and Yan Gomes. With Sanchez now in the fold, the Nationals project at just north of $200MM in terms of both actual 2019 payroll and luxury tax payroll. That leaves about $6MM to work with to remain under the luxury barrier, though they exceeded that threshold last season, so there’s clearly no ownership mandate not to cross that point.

Sanchez’s deal may seem steep to some, given the lasting impression from his final years in Detroit. However, the general parameters of this contract align with the two years and $22MM forecast on MLBTR’s Top 50 free agent rankings/contract predictions. For those who played along in MLBTR’s Free Agent Prediction Contest, just 1.88 percent of participants correctly pegged Sanchez as a future National.

Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press broke the news that Sanchez was signing with the Nats (Twitter links). Fancred’s Jon Heyman added information on the third-year option (Twitter links), and Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post tweeted the yearly breakdown of the contract.

Athletics Sign Mike Fiers

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7:31PM: Fiers will earn $14.1MM in total, according to Janie McCauley of the Associated Press (Twitter link).  The deal breaks down as $6MM in 2019, and $8.1MM in 2020.

Dec. 24, 1:02PM: The A’s have announced the deal (via Twitter).

Dec. 22:The Oakland Athletics are close to re-signing Michael Fiers, per the MLB Network’s Jon Morosi. Fiers will earn between $14MM and $15MM over a two-year span (Twitter links). The deal is pending a physical.

The dollar amount makes sense for both sides, considering Fiers was non-tendered by the A’s at season’s end while being projected to earn $9.7MM through arbitration. With this agreement, the A’s save themselves a couple million on their 2019 payroll while getting a second season of control, and Fiers gets more guaranteed money.

Fiers came to Oakland in August in exchange for two PTBNL, who turned into LHP Logan Shore and RHP Nolan Blackwood. He then contributed reliable innings for the A’s down the stretch as they struggled to keep rotation arms healthy en route to a surprising 97-win season. Pitching in the spacious arenas of Detroit and Oakland last season, Fiers tallied his best year as a pro: a 12-8 record with a 3.56 ERA across 172 innings.

Fiers threw more sliders than ever in 2018, a pitch he has steadily woven into his repertoire since 2015. The increase in slider usage corresponded with a similar decrease in sinker usage, leading to elevated launch angles and more flyballs (43.2 FB%) – all of which could signal sustainability for Fiers’ 2018 success. His peripherals don’t scream drastic transformation, though he did lower his walk rate to a career-low 1.94 BB/9.

Morosi recently reported Fiers was being courted by the Reds, Nationals, Rangers and Giants, all of whom would have been a poorer fit for Fiers, save perhaps the Giants, given his past home run issues. The Oakland Coliseum seems a good fit for the 33-year-old, who is at his best when keeping the ball in the air, but at his worst when unable to keep the ball in the yard.

Fiers ill join an unstable cadre of rotation arms in Oakland, with Daniel Mengden, Frankie Montas, Aaron Brooks, Paul Blackburn and Chris Bassitt being the in-house options for what’s sure to be another ragtag crew.

Cubs Sign Kendall Graveman

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TUESDAY: Per Heyman, Graveman will earn an additional $100K for each of the following performance milestones: 15 games started, 18 GS, 21 GS, 23 GS, and 25 GS. The incentives package means that Graveman can earn up to $2.5MM in 2019.

SUNDAY: Chicago has announced the signing.

SATURDAY: The Cubs have agreed to a deal with free agent pitcher Kendall Graveman, per ESPN’s Jesse Rogers (via Twitter).

Graveman gets a major league contract worth $575K for 2019 with a $3MM club option for 2020. That option year does not include a buyout. Even one day on the 2019 roster, however, will trigger an escalator clause to bring Graveman’s salary to $2MM, and he can earn an additional $500k in performance bonuses.

Graveman, 28, had been relatively productive the last four seasons for the Oakland A’s when not dogged by injury. His high water mark came in 2016, working to a 10-11 record in 186 innings over 31 starts with a 4.11 ERA (4.39 FIP). For his career, Graveman carries a 23-29 record and 4.38 ERA across 78 career starts.

The A’s say goodbye to another piece from the Josh Donaldson trade of 2014. Infielder Franklin Barreto is now the only player remaining from the trade that sent Oakland’s star third baseman to Toronto the year before he would win the MVP award with the Blue Jays. Graveman spent four seasons in Oakland, the last of which was mostly lost to injury. He made only seven starts in 2018 with a 7.60 ERA before undergoing Tommy John surgery.

For the Cubs, they get to closely monitor the recovery of a potential rotation arm in 2020 at a very low cost. From their presumed 2019 rotation, only Hamels will be a free agent after next season, but Kyle Hendricks will be entering his final year of arbitration, and Jose Quintana will be facing the first of consecutive club options. There’s almost no downside for the Cubs here, while Graveman gets to benefit from the medical resources of the a large market team as he rehabs from Tommy John.

The timetable for his 2019 return is as of yet unclear, but it’s not expected he will play much of a role, if any, on the Cubs next year, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun Times (via Twitter).The Cubs signed Drew Smyly in a similar situation before last season, only to flip him to the Rangers to help cover the cost of Cole Hamels’ club option this year. Garrett Richards, in a similar situation, signed for two years and $15.5MM guaranteed with the Padres, though he carries a longer track record of success than Graveman.

The financials of the deal were first reported by 670thescore.com’s Bruce Levine, while Fancred’s Jon Heyman noted earlier than Graveman received a major league deal (Twitter links). Heyman added the information about the escalator clause and performance bonus (via Twitter). Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rays Sign Charlie Morton

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DECEMBER 23: The value of Morton’s option will drop to $10MM if he spends 31 to 90 days on the DL by the end of 2020, $5MM for 91 to 150 days, $3MM for 151 to 200 days and $1MM for more than 200, Heyman tweets.

DECEMBER 21: This signing is now official.

DECEMBER 12, 10:57pm: The vesting option has quite a bit of flexibility, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (Twitter links). If he’s on the DL for less than thirty days over the two guaranteed seasons, it’ll remain at $15MM. Otherwise, it could land at $10MM, $5MM, $3MM or $1MM, depending upon how many days he’s sidelined.

4:39pm: Morton will receive consecutive $15MM salaries, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). The deal includes assignment bonuses if Morton is traded, valued at $1MM in 2019 and $500K in 2020.

3:03pm: The Rays are in agreement on a deal with right-hander Charlie Morton, according to MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi (Twitter link).  Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported earlier today that Morton and the Rays were close to a deal, and also first reported on the interest between the two sides earlier this week.

Morton, a client of Jet Sports Management, will earn $30MM over the two-year contract, as per Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan.  The deal also contains an option for the 2021 season that could be worth as much as $15MM if Morton remains healthy, though could also be as low as $1MM should Morton suffer a significant injury over the course of the initial two years.  MLBTR’s ranked Morton 14th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents and projected Morton for a two-year, $32MM commitment, so he could greatly surpass that figure should that option year be exercised at the full amount.

Charlie Morton

Though $30MM in guaranteed money isn’t a huge sum by most free agent standards, it counts as a major splurge by the low-spending Rays, though the club was able to account for the extra expenditure after a season that saw them clear millions off the books in long-term commitments.  Even better for the Rays, they were able to slash payroll while still fielding their most competitive team in years, boasting a young roster that won 90 games in 2018.  That progress left Tampa willing to spend a little extra in the hopes of making a full push towards a postseason berth next season.

The 35-year-old Morton has enjoyed a late-career awakening since coming to the Astros prior to the 2017 season and employing a new pitching philosophy that focused more on strikeouts and generating more velocity.  The veteran has a 3.36 ERA, 10.4 K/9, and 3.19 K/BB rate over 313 2/3 innings in a Houston uniform, a stint that has included a key role in the Astros’ 2017 World Series championship and Morton’s first career All-Star berth in 2018.  The veteran has posted 6.3 fWAR over the last two years, as opposed to 7.8 fWAR over the first nine seasons with the Braves, Pirates, and Phillies.

The Astros didn’t issue a one-year qualifying offer to Morton, though they did offer the hurler a one-year contract with an option on a second year.  The Rangers were another known suitor, and one would assume that several other clubs had interest in Morton given his recent success and the fact that he could be signed to a shorter-term deal.  Morton had given the impression that he could retire soon and wasn’t in search of a long-term commitment, though it seems he’ll put on the spikes for at least two more seasons.  Morton had also expressed an interest in either a return to Houston or joining a team located closer to his wife’s family in Delaware, so the Rays’ east coast locale might’ve been something of a factor, even if Tampa Bay and Delaware aren’t exactly in close proximity.

Morton now joins AL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow as the only three conventional starters in the Rays rotation, as manager Kevin Cash has said that the team will continue to use an “opener” at least twice during every turn of the rotation.  Though the Rays used openers very regularly in 2018 (even on a near-daily basis over the summer while Snell was on the DL), adding a veteran arm like Morton to cover innings provides some extra cushion for the relief corps as it prepares for another significant workload.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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