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Newsstand

Clayton Kershaw To Undergo Toe And Knee Surgeries

By Darragh McDonald | November 1, 2024 at 5:15pm CDT

As the Dodgers celebrate their World Series victory today, left-hander Clayton Kershaw informed reporters that he will be on the surgeon’s table next week, with work to be done on his left toe and left knee.

He missed time this year due to bone spurs in his left big toe, but the problems evidently go beyond that, as he also has a ruptured plantar plate. The knee surgery will be to correct a torn meniscus. Details were relayed by various reporters, including Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic (X links). His return timeline is unclear at this point.

Kershaw, 37 in March, has a legendary career but his most recent seasons have been defined by his health issues. Due to various ailments, he hasn’t tossed 135 innings in a season since 2019.

It was almost exactly a year ago, on November 3 of 2023, that the lefty announced he had undergone shoulder surgery. Since that procedure was going to keep him out until midseason, he and the Dodgers reunited on a deal that reflected his health status.

It was technically a two-year deal, with Kershaw guaranteed $5MM in both 2024 and 2025 but with the second season being a player option. The deal also included a number of incentives that would allow Kershaw to increase both the value of his 2024 salary and 2025 player option based on games started.

As he attempted to return to the club this summer, he was slowed by some shoulder soreness during his rehab, getting reinstated in late July. In just over a month on the roster, Kershaw made seven starts with a 4.50 earned run average before landing on the injured list due to the aforementioned bone spurs in his toe.

He attempted to get back into game shape as the season was winding down but wasn’t successful. Today’s news provides a bit more clarity on what exactly Kershaw was up against while trying to get back on the field.

By making seven starts this year, Kershaw unlocked escalators worth $5MM on his 2025 option, bringing the value to $10MM. Though he’s set for another offseason of surgery and rehab, he reiterated today that he plans on coming back next year.

He could do that simply by triggering the $10MM option, or perhaps he and the club will negotiate some new pact. His recent free agent trips have been characterized as him essentially deciding between returning to the Dodgers versus signing with his hometown Texas Rangers. During today’s celebrations, Kershaw seemed to erase any mystery about which jersey he would be wearing next year. He declared himself a “Dodger for life,” per Ardaya on X.

Whenever he returns, he will slot into a Dodger rotation that currently projects to include Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, Landon Knack and others.. Guys like Emmet Sheehan, River Ryan or Kyle Hurt could factor in once they recover from their Tommy John surgeries. The Dodgers will also likely make offseason moves that alter their rotation picture, either via free agency or trade.

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Los Angeles Dodgers Newsstand Clayton Kershaw

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Rays Exercise Club Option On Brandon Lowe

By Darragh McDonald | November 1, 2024 at 4:45pm CDT

The Rays announced that they have exercised their club option on infielder Brandon Lowe. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relayed the news on X prior to the official announcement. The club could have given Lowe a $1MM buyout and sent him to free agency but have instead locked in his $10.5MM salary for the upcoming season.

There wasn’t much suspense with this decision. Lowe has hit .245/.330/.482 in his career for a 126 wRC+. That includes a .244/.311/.473 line in 2024 for a 123 wRC+.

He has mostly played second base in his career but has also spent some time at first base and in the outfield corners. He’s not considered especially strong at any of those spots but the versatility is still useful. He has missed plenty of time due to injuries in his career, only once getting into 110 games in a season, but his production has been strong whenever he’s been out there.

Back in March of 2019, when Lowe had just 43 MLB games on his ledger, he and the Rays agreed to a six-year, $24MM contract extension. The Rays are undoubtedly happy with their return on that investment, given Lowe’s performance.

They have triggered the club option to keep Lowe around for 2025 and his contract has another club option for 2026. He can be retained for that season at a rate of $11.5MM with a $500K buyout.

The question now is if the Rays will hold him or trade him. The franchise often trades players as they get more expensive and closer to free agency, which applies to Lowe.

According to RosterResource, the projected 2025 payroll is fairly similar to what they paid in 2024. A few non-tenders of their arbitration-eligible players could give them some breathing space but they are also facing the uncertainty of their stadium situation. With Tropicana Field badly damaged by Hurricane Milton, it’s possible that the club has to spend the upcoming season or seasons as nomads. That could have financial implications in terms of ticket sales, refunds, repairs and so on.

Even if that situation is largely resolved by insurance or other means, the Rays normally keep payroll down by trading players in this situation for younger, cheaper and more controllable alternatives. As such, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Lowe’s name pops up in trade rumors this winter.

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Newsstand Tampa Bay Rays Transactions Brandon Lowe

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Ty France Elects Free Agency

By Steve Adams | November 1, 2024 at 1:55pm CDT

The Reds announced a series of roster moves Friday, most notably revealing that first baseman Ty France cleared waivers and elected free agency. He would’ve been arbitration-eligible and was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $8.6MM in his final season of club control. Today’s outright and subsequent free agency election is effectively an early non-tender.

Cincinnati also passed catcher Austin Wynns, righty Tejay Antone and outfielder Nick Martini through waivers unclaimed. Like France, Wynns and Martini opted for free agency. Antone accepted an outright assignment and will remain with the club and continue mending from the third elbow surgery of his career.

France, 30, was an offensive force for his first three years with the Mariners from 2020-22, hitting a combined .285/.355/.443 with 42 homers, 68 doubles and three triples in 1418 plate appearances. He rarely struck out (16.7%), hit plenty of line drives and, after spending much of his minor league career playing other positions, worked his way into becoming an above-average defender at first base.

The 2023 season was a step back in all regards. France’s batting line slipped to .250/.337/.366 — still respectable but nowhere near his prior levels, particularly in the power department. His production dwindled further this year, and the Mariners designated him for assignment after he mustered only a .223/.312/.350 line in 88 games. The Reds swung a trade to acquire France in hope that a change of scenery would improve his output. France’s rate stats modestly improved, but not to the extent that one might hope when going from the league’s most pitcher-friendly stadium in Seattle to its most homer-happy park in Cincinnati. He finished the year at .234/.305/.365 between the two clubs.

France will now head to the free-agent market for the first time but do so coming off a sub-optimal platform spanning two years of struggles. He’ll likely be limited to one-year offers and guarantees well shy of the $8.6MM he’d been projected to earn in arbitration.

Wynns, 33, is the consummate journeyman backup catcher. He’s a career .230/.277/.332 hitter in 673 plate appearances split among five big league teams. He’s been with six different organization since the Orioles selected him in the tenth round of the 2013 draft. Wynns is regarded as a sound defender but has never provided much from an offensive standpoint.

Martini, 34, cracked the Reds’ Opening Day roster and belted a pair of homers in their first game of the season. It was downhill from there, however. He hit just .204/.266/.324 over his next 159 plate appearances before suffering a sprained thumb that ended his season in early July. Martini is a career .294/.399/.454 hitter in parts of eight Triple-A seasons and a .252/.336/.400 hitter in 575 big league plate appearances.

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Cincinnati Reds Newsstand Transactions Austin Wynns Nick Martini Tejay Antone Ty France

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Mariners Decline Option On Jorge Polanco; Luis Urias Elects Free Agency

By Steve Adams | November 1, 2024 at 1:35pm CDT

The Mariners on Friday declined their $12MM club option on second baseman Jorge Polanco, per a team announcement. He’ll be paid a $750K buyout and become a free agent. The M’s also announced that infielder Luis Urias went unclaimed on outright waivers and elected free agency. Their 40-man roster is currently at 36 players.

Seattle acquired the switch-hitting Polanco from the Twins last offseason in a trade sending reliever Justin Topa, veteran righty Anthony DeSclafani, prospects Gabriel Gonzalez and Darren Bowen, and cash back to Minnesota. The hope at the time was that the steady Polanco  would solidify what had been a revolving door at second base for two seasons in Seattle. Instead, Polanco became the latest notable veteran to arrive in Seattle and see his offensive production unexpectedly decline in swift fashion.

Polanco hit .270/.338/.455 in nearly 2700 plate appearances with the Twins from 2018-23, only once posting below-average offense in a season (2020). He’d incurred some injury troubles in the two years immediately preceding the swap but was entering his age-30 season. There was little reason to expect a steep decline at the plate, but that’s exactly what played out. Polanco, a 2019 All-Star, got out to an awful .197/.285/.298 slash through the first three months of the season. He picked up the pace considerably in July, but by that point there was little salvaging his season. He wound up with career-lows in batting average (.213) and on-base percentage (.298). His .355 slugging percentage was exactly one point higher than his career-worst .354 from that shortened 2020 season.

The career-worst showing at the plate for Polanco was at least in part due to knee troubles. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported a couple weeks back that Polanco was slated to undergo surgery to repair the patellar tendon in his left knee. That’s the same knee that landed Polanco on the injured list for the final month of the 2022 season and for the first three weeks of the 2023 campaign. Depending on the extent to which the injury has been nagging him, it’s certainly possible that a healthier Polanco could return to form in short order next season. It’s not yet clear exactly how long he’ll need to recover, but if Polanco is expected back on time for Opening Day 2025, he ought to command a one-year deal with incentives this offseason.

As for Urias, this is the second time the Mariners passed him through waivers. He accepted an outright assignment last time around, as electing free agency following his midseason outright would’ve required forfeiting the remainder of his salary. He’s no longer on a guaranteed deal, however, and was arbitration-eligible — with a projected $5MM salary (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz). The M’s were never likely to pay that price a second time, leaving Urias as one of the more clear-cut non-tender candidates in the league. Today’s outright is tantamount to non-tendering him a couple weeks ahead of the deadline to do so.

Urias, 27, was one of the top prospects in baseball during his minor league days with the Padres. He had a pair of solid seasons following a trade to the Brewers, hitting a combined .244/.340/.426 in 2021-22. However, Urias’ production tanked with a .194/.337/.299 slash in 2023, and he wasn’t able to get back on track in 2024, hitting only .191/.303/.394. He’s capable of playing multiple infield spots but is better suited at second and third base than at shortstop. A team seeking a right-handed utility infielder could look to Urias on a minor league deal or perhaps a low-cost one-year pact with some incentives baked in.

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Newsstand Seattle Mariners Transactions Jorge Polanco Luis Urias

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Rhys Hoskins Exercises Player Option With Brewers

By Steve Adams | November 1, 2024 at 1:12pm CDT

First baseman/designated hitter Rhys Hoskins has triggered his player option for 2025. He’ll return to the Brewers next year on an $18MM salary instead of taking the $4MM buyout. The deal also has an $18MM mutual option for 2026 with another $4MM buyout. Adam McCalvy of MLB.com was among those to relay the news on X.

Hoskins, 32 in March, signed a two-year deal that guaranteed him $34MM last offseason. That contract, which came in the wake of a season lost to a torn ACL, allowed him to opt out after year one. The hope at the time, for all parties, was that Hoskins would return to form following that season-ending injury, giving the Brewers one year of middle-of-the-order production before marketing himself ahead of a more lucrative long-term deal. It didn’t play out that way, however, and Hoskins will now head back to Milwaukee in hopes of bolstering his output at the plate.

The 2024 season wasn’t necessarily a “bad” one for Hoskins, who still swatted 26 round-trippers and knocked in 82 runs. But Hoskins’ .214/.303/.419 slash was a far cry from the .242/.353/.492 slash he posted from 2017-22 with the Phillies. By measure of wRC+, Hoskins was 26% better than average at the plate during his time with the Phils. In Milwaukee, his offense clocked in two percent shy of average. For a defensively limited first baseman whose value is derived primarily from his bat, that understandably wasn’t a strong enough platform for Hoskins and agent Scott Boras to again test the market.

Hoskins’ season wasn’t without its positives. He actually got out to a nice start and hit quite well in the month of September as well. The interim three months, however, were engulfed by a prodigious slump. As of May 31, Hoskins was touting a .239/.342/.471 batting line that was generally in line with his career norms (129 wRC+). He hit .234/.355/.469 in his final 77 plate appearances in September as well. Those solid months bookended a disastrous summer that saw the longtime Phillies masher flail away at a a .198/.270/.383 pace, however.

If Hoskins is able to more consistently produce at his April/May/September levels in 2025, there’s still hope of landing another notable contract for him in free agency next offseason. While his strikeout rate spiked to a career-worst 28.8%, there were other encouraging signs in 2024. His 10.3% walk rate was lower than his excellent early-career levels but was right in line with his 2021-22 marks. His 41.9% hard-hit rate was a near-mirror image of his 42% career mark, and last year’s 12.7% barrel rate was higher than the 11.7% rate he carried into the year. He’ll aim to build upon those trends while cutting back on his mounting strikeout rate in the middle of Milwaukee’s lineup.

For the Brewers, this should come as no surprise. Hoskins wasn’t likely to top the net $14MM from which he’d be walking away on the open market. It’s still not an ideal allocation of their limited resources, however, so it’s at least feasible that Milwaukee looks for a trade partner over the winter. More likely, however, are trades of other veterans on notable salaries — Devin Williams (a free agent next winter) chief among them. As it stands, the Brewers’ projected 2025 payroll (including arbitration projections and the obvious decisions to exercise options on Freddy Peralta and Colin Rea) will already clock in higher than their 2024 payroll. There’ll be some wheeling-and-dealing by the Milwaukee front office, as is the case every offseason.

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Milwaukee Brewers Newsstand Transactions Rhys Hoskins

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Top 35 Trade Candidates Of The 2024-25 MLB Offseason

By Steve Adams | October 31, 2024 at 11:59pm CDT

The offseason is here! At MLB Trade Rumors, our Top 50 Free Agent List and the contract/team predictions associated with each player has come to be an annual tradition and one of our most anticipated pieces of the year. However, free agency only makes up a portion of the offseason roster reconstruction that MLBTR fans follow so voraciously. Trades are every bit as pivotal to weaving the offseason tapestry, though they’re inherently a bit more difficult to predict, as they involve valuing multiple players and are generally less dependent on precedent.

We took a look at 25 trade candidates early last offseason and saw six of the top eight moved, with seven overall members of the list changing hands (and another five eventually being traded during the 2024 season). We’re upping that number to 35 this time around, in large part because a few teams figure to have a broad number of players available on the market.

The White Sox will continue their “anything that’s not nailed down” approach to the trade market, and the Cardinals for the first time in recent history are taking a step back and adopting a more future-looking approach as they overhaul their player development department. (Put another way: they’ll be selling off a whole lot of veterans.) The Rays have several players nearing the end of their control windows in Tampa Bay, which always drives player movement. The Rangers are looking to drop back under the luxury tax threshold while simultaneously looking to add multiple starting pitchers.

Before we get to the list, a note on methodology. This isn’t a strict ranking of players’ trade value, nor is it solely about likelihood of being moved. We’re trying to balance both of those things, an inherently subjective exercise. All projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

1. Garrett Crochet, LHP, White Sox | Arbitration-eligible through 2026 ($2.9MM projected salary in 2025)

No mystery here. Crochet was the most talked-about trade candidate for much of the summer and only wound up staying put in Chicago after reports surfaced that he was seeking an extension if he was to pitch in the postseason and was adamant about remaining a starter in the aftermath of a trade. Crochet, the No. 11 pick in the 2020 draft, has been a high-profile arm since the moment he was drafted but has been beset by injuries.

The 2024 campaign was Crochet’s first full season back from Tommy John surgery and first full season as a big league starter. He entered the year with just 85 professional innings due to those health woes but pitched 146 innings out of the Chicago rotation. Fatigue was an issue down the stretch, as his results faded late in the year, but Crochet still notched a 3.58 ERA with elite strikeout and walk rates (35.1% and 5.5%, respectively). He averaged 97.2 mph on his heater and shouldn’t have many — if any — workload restrictions next year. He’s an ace-caliber arm (2.69 FIP, 2.53 SIERA) who’s being paid like a middle reliever because his lack of innings has curbed his earning power in arbitration. Every contender in MLB will be calling the White Sox about Crochet this winter.

2. Ryan Helsley, RHP, Cardinals | Arb-eligible through 2025 ($6.9MM projected salary in 2025)

The Cardinals made clear they’re taking a step back, cutting payroll, and focusing on revamping their player development practice. The 2025 season isn’t going to be a competitive one for them. Helsley is one of the best relievers in the game, with a 1.83 ERA over his past three seasons. He saved an MLB-best 49 games in 2024 while pitching to a 2.04 ERA with a 29.7% strikeout rate, 8.6% walk rate and a fastball that averaged 99.6 mph. He’s controlled for one more season and carries a modest arbitration projection because he was injured for part of 2023 and didn’t have a full season of closing work until 2024.

The St. Louis bullpen has several trade candidates, with top setup man JoJo Romero also a surefire trade candidate who’s controlled through 2026. But Helsley is the big fish in the Cardinals’ bullpen, and he’s a virtual lock to be traded this winter.

3. Erick Fedde, RHP, Cardinals | Guaranteed $7.5MM in 2025

Fedde might not be quite as much of a lock as Helsley to move, but he’s not far behind. The former first-round pick washed out after several injury-plagued years with the Nats but reinvented himself in the Korea Baseball Organization in 2023, taking home KBO MVP honors in a dominant showing. He returned to MLB on a two-year, $15MM deal with the White Sox that looked like a bargain almost immediately. Fedde was traded to the Cardinals at the deadline when St. Louis was still in “go for it” mode. The team’s priorities have changed, and they can now recoup some young talent by peddling Fedde on the heels of 177 1/3 innings of 3.30 ERA ball, during which time he punched out 21.2% of opponents against a 7.2% walk rate. Fedde isn’t an ace and might not be quite as good as that 3.30 ERA suggests, but he’s a clear No. 3 or 4 starter who’s being paid like a reclamation project. He’ll generate a lot of interest, and since he’s a free agent after 2025, there’s no reason for a retooling Cardinals club to hang onto him.

4. Devin Williams, RHP, Brewers | Signed through 2025 ($10.5MM club option for 2025, which is his final arbitration season; Brewers could buy out for $250K. Projected $8MM arbitration salary)

Many will assume Williams is on here because of the unfortunate way in which his season — and the Brewers’ season — ended. That’s not the case, however. Williams stood as an obvious trade candidate long before that postseason meltdown. The Brewers are no strangers to trading their best players as they progress through their arbitration years and are particularly frugal when it comes to relief pitching. Josh Hader was in trade chatter for years before being moved with 1.5 seasons of club control remaining. Williams is arguably as good — or at least as talented — on a per-inning basis and will be more affordable.

Williams can command a solid trade return for his final season of club control, while the Brewers save some money, add to their base of young talent, and turn the ninth inning over to a more affordable arm like Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe or Joel Payamps. Milwaukee isn’t far south of its 2024 payroll even if Williams is traded and Willy Adames signs elsewhere, and owner Mark Attanasio’s recent comments didn’t exactly read like someone planning a major payroll spike.

5. Yandy Diaz, 1B, Rays | Guaranteed $10MM through 2025 (contract contains $12MM club option for 2026, with no buyout)

The Rays are among the most cost-conscious teams in the sport. They have a deceptive level of payroll flexibility this offseason after trading several veterans at the deadline, but Diaz’s $10MM salary will still be a notable contract for them. The 33-year-old had a down season at the plate relative to his high standards, but much of his struggle was confined to April. From May 1 onward, Diaz hit .297/.355/.447 in 490 plate appearances.

Diaz doesn’t hit for a ton of power, however, and the Rays have a heavily right-handed lineup they’d likely prefer to balance out. Teams like the Mariners, Astros, Yankees and Pirates could be on the hunt for first basemen this winter. Flipping Diaz and allotting his playing time to Jonathan Aranda, Curtis Mead and/or Christopher Morel could create flexibility to add in another area while also netting some young talent. The affordable no-buyout option for the 2026 campaign only adds to the allure for other clubs.

6. Jesus Luzardo, LHP, Marlins | Arb-eligible through 2026 ($6MM projected salary in 2025)

Luzardo likely would’ve been moved at the trade deadline had he not been injured. Health troubles have been a persistent theme for the talented former top prospect, and that could hamper his trade market this winter. Luzardo spent time on the IL with elbow tightness early in 2024 but returned and looked healthy — at least until he suffered a stress reaction in his lower back that proved to be a season-ending injury. He’s also missed considerable time with a forearm strain in 2022, a broken hand in 2021, and Tommy John surgery as a prospect.

Perhaps the Marlins will want Luzardo to demonstrate his health in 2025 before shopping him, but they’d run the risk of a notable injury completely tanking his value. He’s coming off a lackluster 5.00 ERA in a dozen 2024 starts but from 2022-23 turned in 279 innings of 3.48 ERA ball with very strong strikeout and walk rates. Luzardo is still only 27 and won’t be 28 until next September. He has two years of affordable club control remaining. Trading him after missing three months with a back injury certainly isn’t selling at peak value, but the Marlins can still command a good return for the left-hander. It’s worth noting that the Fish could discuss a wide range of arms this offseason, including Braxton Garrett and Ryan Weathers, but they both have four more years of team control and dealt with injuries.

7. Pete Fairbanks, RHP, Rays | Guaranteed $4.667MM through 2025 ($3.667MM in 2025, $7MM club option for 2026 with $1MM buyout)

Like Diaz, Fairbanks is a solid veteran contributor playing on a three-year extension he signed two offseasons ago. His $3.667MM salary this coming season is hardly prohibitive, even by Tampa Bay’s standards. But Fairbanks has had injury problems, and the Rays are down to two years of control over the right-hander. With any significant injury in 2025, his 2026 club option might not look so appealing. Right now, he’s a flamethrowing closer who averaged 97.5 mph on his heater in 2024 (and 99 mph at peak). At his best, Fairbanks has punched out more than a third of his opponents and done so with better command than most triple-digit firemen. There is obvious injury concern for any team that acquires him, but the upside is tantalizing. Fairbanks has a 2.89 ERA and 32.2% strikeout rate dating back to 2020.

8. Josh Naylor, 1B, Guardians | Arb-eligible through 2025 ($12MM projected salary in 2025)

Cleveland has a habit of trading its best players before they reach free agency, as evidenced by swaps sending out Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco, Corey Kluber and others over the years. There have been exceptions — Michael Brantley comes to mind, and Shane Bieber likely wouldn’t have been traded this season had he remained healthy — but that’s typically been their modus operandi. If a top talent isn’t amenable to an extension, trade him late in arbitration, recoup some young talent, keep the payroll down, and keep the farm stocked. It’s a recipe that’s worked for them.

With Kyle Manzardo and Jhonkensy Noel reaching MLB readiness and Naylor projected to earn $12MM in his final season of club control, a trade wouldn’t be a shock. Naylor is far from a bad contract, but his projected arb price only carries a few million dollars of surplus value. He probably won’t bring back a top prospect, but he can fetch a couple names to add to the middle of a perennially strong Cleveland farm. The Yankees, Astros, Mariners, D-backs and Giants could all be looking for first base help.

9. Aaron Civale, RHP, Brewers | Arb-eligible through 2025 ($8MM projected salary in 2025)

Trading Civale would be peak Brewers: acquire a player who fills an in-season need and will contain modest surplus value in the offseason, then cash in on that surplus value over the winter. In the past couple seasons alone, they’ve acquired Mark Canha, Esteury Ruiz and Abraham Toro, only to trade each within a calendar year of said acquisition. Milwaukee is a freewheeling club that’s unafraid to act boldly on the trade market.

Civale’s $8MM projected salary is hardly a burden, particularly once he pitched to a 3.53 ERA in 14 starts with the Brewers after being traded by the Rays in early July. However, that solid ERA came with pedestrian strikeout and walk rates. The Brewers also have a knack for finding quality arms at lower rates than this (see: Tobias Myers, Colin Rea). They’ll still be in the market for pitching help even if they move Civale, but trading him would be a very Brewers-esque means of leveraging the final season of a player’s club control to add young talent and free up financial resources to redirect to other areas of the roster.

10. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Cardinals | Guaranteed $74MM through 2027 ($32MM in 2025, $27MM in 2026, $15MM in 2027; Rockies paying $5MM of 2025 salary)

Arenado’s past two seasons have been more good than great. He’s produced slightly better-than-average offensive numbers (.269/.320/.426) after playing at an MVP-caliber level in 2022. He remains a clear plus defender at the hot corner, but not quite to the extent he was earlier in his career when he was arguably the best defensive player in all of baseball. With Arenado’s 34th birthday looming in April, it’s fair to question whether there’s a true rebound in his bat.

Even if there isn’t, this version of Arenado is still quite useful, particularly given the thin free agent market at third base. The Rockies are paying $5MM of what’s left on his deal, so an acquiring team would be committing $69MM over a three-year term. For a strong defensive third baseman with 15- to 25-homer pop and terrific bat-to-ball skills (14.5% strikeout rate in 2024), it’s not an egregious price to pay. And if Arenado’s bat does tick back upward, it has a chance to be a bargain. Arenado has a full no-trade clause and declined to exercise an opt-out in his contract after the 2021 season when he likely could’ve earned more than he had remaining on his contract. He said at the time he was committed to winning in St. Louis, but now that the team is gearing up for a youth movement, it’s possible he could rethink that stance. The Cardinals, looking to trim payroll and create opportunity for younger players, seem likely to at least approach him about the possibility.

11. Sonny Gray, RHP, Cardinals | Guaranteed $65MM through 2026 ($25MM in 2025, $35MM in 2026, $30MM club option for 2027 with $5MM buyout)

Like Arenado, Gray has a full no-trade clause. That, coupled with his backloaded contract, makes him a tricky player to move. Gray was selective in his decision to sign with the Cardinals and implied from the outset in free agency that location mattered and that money was not his only priority. That said, Gray is also similar to Arenado in the sense that he’s a mid-30s veteran who committed to the Cardinals when the club was in win-now mode. Playing out the final two (or three) seasons of his current deal on what figures to be a non-contending team may not hold the same appeal.

With two years and $65MM still owed to him, Gray is hardly a bargain. That’s probably more than he’d get in free agency on the heels of an age-34 campaign that saw him post a 3.84 ERA in 166 1/3 frames, though his 30.3% strikeout rate and 5.8% walk rate were far more intriguing. Contenders with deep pockets and/or clean payroll outlooks could show interest. The Reds have already been loosely linked to Gray, and the Dodgers, Orioles, Giants, Rangers and Tigers stand as speculative fits.

12. Willson Contreras, C, Cardinals | Guaranteed $59.5MM through 2027 ($18MM in 2025, $18MM in 2026, $18.5MM in 2027, $17.5MM club option for 2028 with $5MM buyout)

More Cardinals! And … more no-trade clauses! Contreras has full veto power on any trades through the 2026 season and is taking home a notable salary in each of the three remaining years on his contract. He’s also absolutely raked in his first 209 games as a Cardinal, slashing .263/.367/.468 with 35 homers in 853 plate appearances (133 wRC+). Contreras is walking more than ever, still hitting for power and remains a mixed bag when it comes to defense. He’s blocking well, per Statcast, and has a solid 24% caught-stealing rate with St. Louis. His framing remains below average.

The three years and $59.5MM remaining on Contreras’ contract don’t feel outlandish. He might even have a case to top that mark if he were a free agent at the moment. The offseason crop of catchers is thin. The Padres, Blue Jays, Rays and Guardians will all be looking for catching help this winter. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently speculated on a particularly fun match … back to the Cubs, who are also seeking a new catcher and a means to upgrade their lineup.

13. Jorge Soler, DH, Braves | Guaranteed $26MM through 2026 ($13MM in 2025, $13MM in 2026)

Note: Soler was traded to the Angels shortly after this post was published.

The Braves’ acquisition of Soler at the trade deadline was a callback to the team’s 2021 pickup of Soler that helped fuel a World Series win. It was also a reminder of the team’s perhaps unparalleled willingness to take on major salary in trades (as they’ve previously done with Soler, Mark Melancon, Raisel Iglesias, Jarred Kelenic and others). Soler was a clear band-aid for an injury-ravaged lineup but creates an obvious square peg on a roster that also includes Marcell Ozuna. Soler is in many ways Ozuna Lite — a right-handed slugger with prolific power but glaring defensive limitations that relegate him to DH duty. Rostering both players next year would mean committing to playing one of them in the outfield on a regular basis — an untenable situation to which no team would like to acquiesce.

Ozuna would be the easier of the two to trade, as his $16MM club option is less cumbersome. But Ozuna is also coming off a season in which he was Atlanta’s best hitter. Soler hit well in his return to Truist Park, slashing .243/.356/.493 with nine round-trippers in 182 plate appearances. His contract is reasonable, and a team looking for some righty pop that’s willing to commit to a full-time DH could do far worse than plugging Soler and his thunderous power into that role.

14. Ryan Pressly, RHP, Astros | Guaranteed $14MM through 2025

The offseason hasn’t even begun in earnest, and Houston general manager Dana Brown has already suggested he “may need to get creative” with the payroll to make necessary additions. That doesn’t bode well for ’Stros fans hoping to see lavish spending. Thanks in part to owner Jim Crane’s ill-fated signings of Jose Abreu and Rafael Montero (both made while operating without a GM) and also to a large arbitration class, the Astros project for a $218MM payroll next season before making a single move (hat tip to the indispensable RosterResource).

Of Houston’s veterans on guaranteed contracts, Pressly could be the most movable. He’s coming off a nice season with a 3.49 ERA, 23.8% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate. It’s not his best work, but the soon-to-be 36-year-old has been a high quality leverage reliever since 2018. There’d be demand from other teams, but Pressly would need to be willing to leave Houston. As a player with 10-and-5 rights (10 years of service, the last five for his current team), the veteran reliever has full no-trade protection. If he’s amenable to a trade, moving him could allow Houston to free up resources to pursue needs at the infield corners.

15. Christian Vazquez, C, Twins | Guaranteed $10MM in 2025

The Twins cut roughly $30MM in payroll last offseason and aren’t going back to their 2023 payroll levels anytime soon — certainly not while the club is up for a potential sale. Executive chair Joe Pohlad indicated that the payroll isn’t likely to dip further from its 2024 levels, but as explored in our Twins Offseason Outlook, Minnesota is likely already a bit north of its 2024 payroll before making a single offseason move.

When Vazquez was signed, he was expected to start over Ryan Jeffers after the former top prospect had seen his stock dwindle. Jeffers has since broken out as a clear starting catcher and taken the lion’s share of playing time. Vazquez remains a plus-plus defender behind the plate. His $10MM salary is excessive, but he’s a better hitter than Austin Hedges, who landed $4MM based on his glove alone last season. If the Twins take on a smaller salary in return or eat a few million dollars, they can find a taker for Vazquez and free up some cash.

16. Chris Paddack, RHP, Twins | Guaranteed $7.5MM in 2025

Paddack’s first year back from his second Tommy John surgery was a mixed bag. He showed off his typical brand of plus command and had a handful of dominant outings but also mixed in far too many meltdowns, finishing out the year with a 4.99 ERA in 17 starts (88 1/3 innings). A forearm strain in July ended his season. It was always risky to bank on Paddack taking a meaningful rotation role when he’d pitched all of 27 innings in the two preceding seasons, but it’d be more reasonable to anticipate a full workload next year now that he’s built back up a bit.

The Twins, however, have payroll issues and could welcome the opportunity to move Paddack’s salary. At $7.5MM, he could even be slightly underpriced relative to what a team would give him in free agency. Minnesota could move him and still have a rotation mix including Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa and Zebby Matthews, with more prospects on the horizon.

17. Luis Arraez, 2B, Padres | Arb-eligible through 2025 ($14.6MM projected salary in 2025)

The Padres are already staring down a payroll north of $200MM and a luxury-tax ledger that’s right up against the threshold in 2025 before making a single offseason addition. Their outgoing free agents include Ha-Seong Kim, Jurickson Profar, Tanner Scott, Kyle Higashioka, David Peralta, Donovan Solano and Martin Perez. They’ll be without Joe Musgrove for all of 2025 as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. Their needs are plentiful.

Arraez is quite arguably a luxury for this team. San Diego can roll with Manny Machado at third, Xander Bogaerts at shortstop and Jake Cronenworth at second. Arraez currently stands as the starter at first base, but they could trade him and that projected salary to address another need and find a more affordable first baseman in free agency (e.g. Carlos Santana) or via the trade market. (There are several options on this list.) It’s confounding to many fans to see the game’s best contact hitter hot potato’ed around the league, but Arraez has bottom-of-the-scale power, well below-average speed and poor defensive grades. He’s a useful player, but more limited than most would expect from a three-time batting champion.

18. Mike Yastrzemski, OF, Giants | Arb-eligible through 2025 ($9.5MM projected salary in 2025)

Yastrzemski has seemingly been a trade candidate for years, but the Giants have hung onto him for almost his entire slate of six pre-free-agent seasons. Acquiring Yastrzemski was one of the first and most successful moves of Farhan Zaidi’s tenure as president of baseball operations in San Francisco. But Zaidi is no longer there, with Buster Posey taking over the role, and Yastrzemski is now just a year from free agency. He’s not the hitter he was early in his Giants run, but Yaz posted a serviceable .231/.302/.437 line with 18 homers. Defensive Runs Saved pegged him as a plus right fielder. Statcast graded him a bit below average.

The Giants will be looking for ways to improve the lineup and inject more offense and more star power into the roster. With Yastrzemski and LaMonte Wade Jr. both one year from free agency, either one of them could be moved as Posey pursues that goal.

19. David Bednar, RHP, Pirates | Arb-eligible through 2026 ($6.6MM projected salary in 2025)

Bednar’s shockingly poor season puts the cost-conscious Pirates in a tough spot. The 30-year-old righty is a Pittsburgh native and was a hometown hero for the Bucs from 2021-23 when he tossed a combined 179 2/3 innings of 2.25 ERA ball, fanned more than 31% of his opponents and saved 61 games. This season, Bednar turned in a ghastly 5.77 ERA as his strikeout rate plummeted to 22.1% and his walk rate spiked to a career-worst 10.7%. There’s no evidence of an arm injury (though he did miss time with an oblique strain). In fact, Bednar’s velocity actually ticked up by about half a mile per hour, sitting at a career-best 97.2 mph.

Next year’s projected $6.6MM is heavier for the Pirates than it would be for most clubs. That said, the Bucs shelled out $8MM for fifth starter Martin Perez and $10.5MM for Aroldis Chapman in free agency last year. It’s not as though they can’t afford it. But if Bednar’s struggles continue, he’ll lose any semblance of trade value and eventually be rendered a DFA or non-tender candidate. Moving him now would open some payroll space but would be selling low on a hometown pitcher who was an All-Star as recently as 2023.

20. Brendan Donovan, INF/OF, Cardinals | Arb-eligible through 2027 ($3.6MM projected salary in 2025)

Yes, more Cardinals. Donovan isn’t as pressing a case any of Arenado, Gray, Contreras, Fedde or Helsley because he has three seasons of club control remaining, is more affordable and can more or less play anywhere on the diamond. That said, all of those factors will also make him appealing to other clubs. We know the Cardinals aren’t going to focus on contending for at least one of Donovan’s three remaining seasons, and if the goal is to beef up the farm system, listening to offers on one of the sport’s premier jacks of all trades makes good sense.

A more aggressive approach in 2024 led to Donovan displaying career-best power numbers (14 homers, .140 ISO), a career-low walk rate (7.2%) and perhaps most surprisingly, a career-best strikeout rate (12.4%). He’s a good hitter who can handle all four infield spots and both outfield corners. Moving Donovan could make room for a number of young players, including Thomas Saggese and Nolan Gorman. Unless, well…

21. Nolan Gorman, 2B, Cardinals | Arb-eligible through 2028 (still pre-arbitration in 2025)

Gorman doesn’t fall in line with the types of Cardinals elsewhere on this list. He’s very controllable, has not yet reached arbitration, and could well be a building block for the next competitive Cardinals club. That said, the former top prospect hasn’t established himself in parts of three big league seasons now, and his lack of consistency clearly has been a point of consternation for the front office. Just ask president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, who said this just prior to demoting Gorman to Triple-A over the summer (link via MLB.com’s John Denton):

“Obviously, it’s a game of production up here and at some point, you’ve got to consistently produce, or we have to find someone who can. I mean, that’s what it ultimately comes down to, and these are hard messages to hear. It can be frustrating, but this is what ends up defining you.”

That’s hardly a ringing endorsement. Gorman won’t turn 25 until May. He has huge power and has slashed .263/.316/.505 in parts of three Triple-A seasons. He’s also quite strikeout prone, particularly in the majors so far (34.1%), and the Cards have other options at second base (Saggese) and third base (Jordan Walker) if they end up moving Arenado. He’s far from a slam-dunk trade candidate, but a change of scenery also shouldn’t come as a major shock.

22. Wilyer Abreu, OF, Red Sox | Arb-eligible through 2029 (still pre-arbitration in 2025)

Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has already voiced a desire to balance a lefty-heavy lineup that include Abreu, Jarren Duran, Triston Casas, Rafael Devers and Masataka Yoshida, with lefty-swinging outfielder Roman Anthony on the cusp of MLB and currently ranking as the sport’s top prospect at Baseball America. There’s been ample speculation among the Sox beat and fan base alike about the possibility of moving Duran, Abreu or Casas. We’re of the mind that trading Duran on the heels of a season that’d garner MVP consideration in most years — when he has four more seasons of club control remaining — would be too large a leap.

Abreu is a fine player but stands as the more logical trade candidate. He’s a plus defensive right fielder but comes with notable platoon concerns. The 25-year-old batted .266/.334/.491 against righties, but the Sox only felt comfortable giving him 67 plate appearances against lefties and he responded with a bleak .180/.254/.279 output. Abreu hit lefties better in the minors, but he’s long posted noticeably better numbers against righties.

Any of Abreu, Duran or Casas would have trade value, but Duran’s value is more well-rounded. Moving four years of control over Duran in hopes that Anthony might reach the same type of ceiling Duran just realized in the majors would be odd. Casas comes with lesser platoon considerations and thus larger overall upside at the plate. Abreu’s value is tied more heavily to his glovework, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing but does give him more floor than it does ceiling. With a strong enough pitcher being offered up in return, the Red Sox would likely keep an open mind to just about anything. The Sox could and likely will try to move Yoshida as well, but his contract is significantly underwater and he’s now coming off shoulder surgery.

23. Leody Taveras, OF, Rangers | Arb-eligible through 2027 ($4.3MM projected salary in 2025)

The Rangers’ offense disappeared in 2024, with nearly every regular taking a step back at the plate. Texas is going to be looking for ways to turn things around, and they’ve now given Taveras more than 1700 plate appearances in the majors to show he can provide at least average offense. He hasn’t done so in any season but 2023, and it’s now fair to question whether that season was an outlier.

Taveras hit just .229/.289/.352 in 2024 but delivered a heartier .266/.312/.421 line in 2023. The Rangers will have to determine which of those is the real Taveras … if the plan is to stick with him. Texas also has Wyatt Langford, Evan Carter and Adolis Garcia as outfield options, with utilitymen Josh H. Smith and Ezequiel Duran also in the fold and prospect Dustin Harris providing another option. Taveras is a switch-hitter and plus runner who can go get it in center field (although DRS was surprisingly bearish on his glovework in ’24). Another club with a center field need would surely look to buy low if the Rangers want to reallocate his playing time to younger options and his projected salary to their glaring pitching needs.

24. Nathaniel Lowe, 1B, Rangers | Arb-eligible through 2026 ($10.7MM projected salary in 2025)

Unlike many of his teammates, Lowe did not take a step back at the plate from 2023 to 2024. His batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, walk rate and strikeout rate from ’24 are all near mirror images of his ’23 campaign. Both years pale in comparison to his brilliant 2022 season, however, and Lowe’s price tag is mounting at a time when the Rangers have a crowded payroll, a need for starting pitching, and multiple prospects who could plausibly slide in at first base (e.g. Justin Foscue, Dustin Harris). Texas reportedly had some discussions about Lowe prior to the deadline, so it’s something they’ve pondered recently.

25. Chas McCormick, OF, Astros | Arb-eligible through 2026 ($3.3MM projected salary in 2025)

A quality role player who tormented lefties and held his own against righties in Houston from 2021-23, McCormick’s production cratered in a career-worst season that now renders him a change-of-scenery candidate. His $3.3MM projected salary is plenty affordable, but the 29-year-old is coming off a disastrous .211/.271/.306 showing in an injury-marred season. The Astros have Yordan Alvarez, Jake Meyers and Kyle Tucker, plus utilityman Mauricio Dubon as an option. Top prospect Jacob Melton isn’t far from being big league ready and should debut in 2025. Moving McCormick wouldn’t create the same level of financial breathing room that a trade of Pressly would, but the Astros could feel the money is better spent elsewhere than on a fourth outfielder seeking a rebound season.

26. Brett Baty, 3B, Mets | Arb-eligible through 2029 (still pre-arbitration in 2025)

“Brett Baty or Mark Vientos?” was a question in Queens until it wasn’t. Vientos emphatically won the everyday third base job in 2024, posting a .266/.322/.516 batting line and crushing 27 homers in just 111 games (plus five more in just 13 playoff games during a sensational postseason run for the young slugger). The future of both Baty and Vientos is tied somewhat to that of free agent Pete Alonso. If the Polar Bear signs elsewhere, it’s feasible that Vientos could slide to first base, leaving third base open for a competition between two defensively superior former top prospects: Baty and Ronny Mauricio. If Alonso returns, however, the Mets will run it back with their present corner infield duo.

Baty has dabbled at second base and left field in the minors, but he’s had big league looks in three straight seasons now and hasn’t landed a long-term spot. He has little left to prove in Triple-A, where he’s a .273/.368/.531 hitter in three seasons. A change of scenery could be in order, and plenty of clubs would welcome the chance to acquire an affordable, potential long-term option at third base.

27. Eugenio Suarez, 3B, D-backs | $15MM club option for 2025 ($2MM buyout)

Suarez might feel like an odd candidate for this list, given his outrageous second half. He was one of baseball’s most prolific offensive performers in the season’s final three months, carrying a Herculean .312/.357/.617 batting line from July 1 through season’s end. Along the way, Suarez ripped 24 homers in just 325 plate appearances. He can still play a solid third base. His option is not at all unreasonable.

However, it’s worth looking at where things stood with Suarez prior to that second-half surge. The slugger had been acquired from the Mariners in what amounted to a salary dump. He had a hot week or two to open the season and then faceplanted over the next two months. His slump reached a low enough point in June that the D-backs would no longer commit to him in an everyday role. The plan was to play rookie Blaze Alexander at third base with increasing frequency. Suarez got hot at the right time, potentially saving not only his place in the starting lineup but perhaps on the roster. On June 23, he was sitting on a .192/.276/.308 batting line. Jordan Lawlar, the No. 6 pick in the 2021 draft, is nearly MLB-ready and has torched Triple-A pitching. Trading Suarez could open a spot for Lawlar and net some additional young talent.

28. Lane Thomas, OF, Guardians | Arb-eligible through 2025 ($8.3MM projected salary in 2025)

Thomas’ situation bears some similarity to that of the already-listed Naylor, but he has a lower projected salary and greater defensive utility, making him likelier to stay put (and thus landing him further down this list). That said, he has just one year of club control remaining and turned in a Jekyll-and-Hyde performance with Cleveland. Thomas hit .148/.239/.198 with a wildly uncharacteristic 38% strikeout rate in his first month as a Guardian. He caught fire for the next two weeks, hitting .367 and slugging .735 over a span of 50 plate appearances but did so without drawing a walk and while still whiffing at a 34% clip. He then tallied just six more hits in his final 45 plate appearances.

It all worked out to a pretty bleak .209/.267/.390 slash with the Guards, and a huge 34.8% strikeout rate that towered over his 21.1% mark with the Nats. That said, Thomas posted better numbers in the postseason and of course delivered the pivotal grand slam off likely Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal that effectively punched Cleveland’s ticket to the ALCS.

29. Cedric Mullins, OF, Orioles | Arb-eligible through 2025 ($8.7MM projected salary in 2025)

The Orioles were reportedly open to offers on Mullins leading up to the trade deadline. He has a year of team control remaining that will come at an affordable price in a thin market for center fielders. Mullins has never replicated his gargantuan 2021 season, but he’s a plus runner with 15- to 20-homer pop and a good glove in the outfield. The O’s needn’t feel as though they must move Mullins, but he probably won’t be a qualifying offer candidate next winter and the team is rife with young outfield options. Colton Cowser can take over in center field, and Heston Kjerstad looks ready for a full time corner audition. The O’s also saw prospects Dylan Beavers and Jud Fabian reach Triple-A last year, and there’s been speculation about Coby Mayo winding up in an outfield corner as well. A trade of Mullins could free up some cash while simultaneously bringing in rotation or bullpen help the team will target this winter.

30. Ryan Mountcastle, 1B, Orioles | Arb-eligible through 2026 ($6.6MM projected salary in 2025)

Speaking of players the O’s were open to moving in July, Mountcastle makes this list as a righty-swinging first baseman with two seasons of club control remaining. As with Mullins, he’s hardly an unproductive player — just an increasingly expensive one with dwindling club control in an organization that’s teeming with position players. Mountcastle hit .271/.308/.425 with 13 homers in 507 plate appearances this past season — good but not great production (108 wRC+). His power numbers have dipped since the O’s changed the dimensions in left field at Camden Yards, but Mountcastle did bash a combined 55 homers in 2021-22. He’s also become a strong defensive first baseman. It’s not a star-caliber profile, but as mentioned earlier, the Astros, Mariners and Pirates are among the teams that could use first base help this winter.

31. Brent Rooker, OF/DH, Athletics | Arb-eligible through 2027 ($5.1MM projected salary in 2025)

Rooker has gone from waiver fodder to one of the game’s premier sluggers in a span of two seasons. He brings legitimate 40-homer upside to any lineup and boasts virtually no platoon split, demolishing left-handers and right-handers alike. Rooker is a bit strikeout-prone but offsets that with his propensity for thunderous contact. His exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate are elite, and while he doesn’t walk quite as much as the prototypical slugger, his 9.6% rate in 2024 was better than average. He’s a slightly better-than-average runner and even chipped in 11 stolen bases in 2024.

Rooker is a legitimate middle-of-the-order behemoth who’d fetch a king’s ransom on the trade market, even if he’s been deployed primarily as a DH by the A’s. The Athletics resisted moving him at the deadline and may want to have one premium player to market in their lineup as they begin their temporary relocation to Sacramento, but teams are going to do their best to pry him loose this winter.

32. Cody Bellinger, OF/1B, Cubs | Guaranteed $52.5MM through 2026 ($27.5MM in 2025, $25MM player option for 2026 with $5MM buyout)

There’s been a fair bit of debate as to whether Cody Bellinger will trigger the opt-out in his contract. Doing so would mean leaving $50MM on the table, which seems like a reach, given that he has an opt-out next year as well and would bank a $27.5MM salary and at least a $5MM buyout on his 2026 player option if he forgoes his current opt-out opportunity. Bellinger isn’t going to command a $32.5MM salary this offseason, and even a larger multi-year deal might only guarantee him $20-30MM more than he has on his current deal.

The Cubs, however, should be rooting for a Bellinger opt-out. They’re looking to upgrade their offense but have a series of expensive veterans with no-trade protection installed up and down the lineup. Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ and Dansby Swanson all have full no-trade rights. Nico Hoerner’s recent surgery makes him highly unlikely to move. Michael Busch posted a better OBP and slugging percentage than Bellinger. Pete Crow-Armstrong is a superior defender in center field.

That said, if Bellinger does stick in Chicago, his contract isn’t any kind of albatross. In fact, in a thin market for center fielders and left-handed hitters alike, he could hold value on the market. The Cubs have comparable options (in terms of overall value) across the outfield and at first base, but that’s not true of every team. Trading Bellinger would free up a lineup spot to pursue an upgrade and some payroll to perhaps look to add to the pitching staff. Bellinger isn’t a bad player or on a bad contract, but he’s somewhat redundant on his current roster.

33. Jordan Montgomery, LHP, D-backs | Guaranteed $22.5MM in 2025

D-backs owner Ken Kendrick seemingly did everything he could to disparage Montgomery in hopes he’ll turn down his $22.5MM player option when publicly stating:

“If anyone wants to blame anyone for Jordan Montgomery being a Diamondback, you’re talking to the guy that should be blamed. Because I brought it to (the front office’s) attention. I pushed for it. They agreed to it. It wasn’t in our game plan. … And looking back, in hindsight, a horrible decision to have invested that money in a guy that performed as poorly as he did. It’s our biggest mistake this season from a talent standpoint. And I’m the perpetrator of that.”

Despite Kendrick’s comments, Montgomery seems likely to exercise his option, as he’s not going to command $22.5MM on the open market. A change-of-scenery trade for the 2023 postseason hero who slipped to a 6.23 ERA in 117 innings after signing late in spring training would certainly make sense — but it’d likely require the D-backs absorbing another team’s unwanted contract or eating a significant portion of the salary.

34. Luis Robert Jr., OF, White Sox | Guaranteed $17MM through 2025 ($15MM salary in 2025; $20MM club option for 2026 with $2MM buyout; $20MM club option for 2027 with $2MM buyout)

With a season that looked anything like his stellar 2023 campaign, Robert would be at the top of this list. Then again, if he’d played anything like he did in 2023, Robert would probably have been traded at the deadline. Instead, a hip flexor strain wiped out nearly half his season. And when healthy, Robert didn’t hit at all. He batted just .224/.278/.379 with a career-worst 33.2% strikeout rate.

The White Sox could still look to move Robert this winter, but it’s hard to imagine they’d sell this low on him when a healthy start to his 2025 season would send his value skyrocketing. At his best, Robert is an MVP-level performer. Holding onto him runs the risk of a scenario where he’s injured for most of the season again and the Sox decline his option, losing him for no return at all. But that risk might be preferable to selling him for pennies on the dollar and watching him rebound elsewhere for a team that acquired three years of Robert at a fraction of full market value. It’s not a great spot for the Sox. A trade is at least possible, but holding him seems like the better play.

35. Bo Bichette, SS, Blue Jays | Guaranteed $16.5MM in 2025

Bichette is on the list largely because teams are going to try to acquire him, but a trade here feels unlikelier than any name on the list (hence him landing in the final spot). The Jays have signaled that they want to retool and try to compete again in 2025. Bichette would logically be a big part of that, assuming he can rebound from an injury-shortened and uncharacteristically feeble year at the plate. Moving him now would also mean selling low on an All-Star player before his 27th birthday. It’s very easy to see a scenario where the Jays underperform early in 2025 and Bichette is a summer trade chip, but the team seems committed to taking at least one more chance with a core led by Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. next season. Bichette will pop up in plenty of rumors this winter, but a trade doesn’t feel likely.

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Braves, Angels Swap Jorge Soler For Griffin Canning

By Steve Adams | October 31, 2024 at 11:56pm CDT

The Angels and Braves wasted little time hammering out the first significant trade of the offseason, as the teams announced Thursday that they’ve agreed on a swap sending designated hitter Jorge Soler to Anaheim in exchange for righty Griffin Canning. There’s reportedly no money changing hands in the deal. The Angels will take on the entirety of the remaining two years and $26MM on Soler’s contract. Atlanta, meanwhile, will be on the hook for Canning’s salary in his final season of arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $5.1MM salary for Canning, who’ll be a free agent next winter.

Soler stood as one of the most obvious trade candidates in all of baseball this offseason, given his defensive limitations and the presence of Marcell Ozuna in Atlanta. The Braves acquired him as something of a desperation move at the deadline, needing help for an injury-ravaged lineup. The plan always seemed to be stomaching Soler in the outfield for a couple of months and pursuing a trade in the offseason (hence Soler ranking prominently on our list of the top 35 trade candidates of the 2024-25 offseason).

The 32-year-old Soler (33 in February) will add a thunderous bat and defensively limited skill set to the Angels’ roster. He inked a three-year, $42MM deal with the Giants last winter on the heels of a 36-homer campaign in Miami and has now been traded twice in the first year of the contract. That isn’t for lack of production, however. To the contrary, Soler enjoyed a solid season at the plate, slashing .241/.338/.442 in 142 games. He was particularly productive from June onward, catching fire with a .263/.366/.489 batting line and clubbing 15 of his 21 homers in that span of 386 plate appearances.

Soler simply wasn’t a good long-term fit on Atlanta’s roster with Ozuna a lock to be retained on a $16MM club option. Both players offer huge power but bottom-of-the-scale defense in the outfield corners. The Braves, as a luxury tax payor, would’ve been on the hook for overage penalties in addition to the $13MM annually owed to Soler.

With the Angels, it’s a more straightforward match. He’ll slot in as the everyday designated hitter on a Halos club that used journeyman Willie Calhoun as its primary option at the DH position in 2024. Eighteen players saw time at DH for the Angels last year, and their collective output (.222/.299/.328) was the fifth-worst in the sport, by measure of wRC+ (80). Even if Soler doesn’t bounce all the way back to his standout 2023 production, his 2024 output represents a monumental upgrade over what the Angels received out of last year’s committee approach to the DH spot in their lineup.

Soler is now one of five Angels under a guaranteed contract for the 2025 season, joining Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, Tyler Anderson and Robert Stephenson. Add in an arbitration class that could cost upwards of $31-32MM before any potential non-tenders (via Swartz’s previously referenced projections), and the Halos are looking at a projected payroll around $168MM (via RosterResource) with the entire offseason ahead of them. They’re presently about $58MM beneath the first luxury tax threshold.

For the Braves, the trade subtracts an onerous contract while adding another competitor to their rotation competition behind Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez, Spencer Schwellenbach (and, once healthy, Spencer Strider). Canning, a former second-round pick and top prospect, has shown promise with the Angels at times — 2020 and 2023, in particular — but has yet to solidify himself as a viable big leagues starter. He’s coming off a season that saw him soak up a career-high 171 2/3 innings but do so with a lackluster 5.19 earned run average. His 17.6% strikeout rate, 8.9% walk rate, 40.7% ground-ball rate and 1.63 HR/9 mark are all worse than the league average.

As recently as ’23, however, Canning logged 127 innings with a 4.32 ERA and much more promising strikeout and walk rates of 25.9% and 6.7%, respectively. A dip in both command and fastball velocity (94.7 mph in 2023, 93.4 mph in 2024) contributed to a downturn on the mound. That said, Canning entered the 2024 season with career-long strikeout and walk rates that were better than league average and a decent bit of post-hype prospect pedigree. He won’t be guaranteed a rotation spot in Atlanta, but if he’s tendered a contract — not a sure thing — he’d compete with AJ Smith-Shawver, Ian Anderson, Bryce Elder and Hurston Waldrep for a spot at the back of the starting staff.

Canning has more than five years of service time and thus cannot be optioned to the minors without his consent. That lack of options leaves open the possibility that the Braves could attempt to sign him to a one-year deal that checks in well shy of his projected arbitration salary and, if unsuccessful, decline to tender him a contract. That’d render the Soler trade a straight-up salary dump, but that’s still not an entirely bad outcome for the Braves. If Canning is indeed tendered a contract, he could also be used as a swingman or long reliever.

The Braves paid the luxury tax in both 2023 and 2024. They’re overwhelmingly likely to do so again in 2025, based on the state of their books. Paying Soler $13MM would’ve come with at least a 50% luxury tax — possibly more, depending on the extent of their remaining offseason spending. For a club with holes to fill in the rotation and quite likely at shortstop, that was an untenable setup. In effect, Atlanta is buying low on a rotation flier and creating greater financial flexibility to address other offseason needs. The Angels, meanwhile, move a potential fifth starter/non-tender candidate to provide a substantial upgrade to a lackluster offense. The Angels’ roster is still littered with holes, so this should be just the first of many additions if the team is intent on trying to compete next season. It’s a fine start as long as it’s merely the first domino in a broader sequence.

Mike Rodriguez first reported Soler was being traded to the Angels. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that Canning was headed back to Atlanta. David O’Brien of The Athletic reported that no money was changing hands in the trade.

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Atlanta Braves Los Angeles Angels Newsstand Transactions Griffin Canning Jorge Soler

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Mets Among Roughly 11 Teams To Reach Out To Soto

By Anthony Franco | October 31, 2024 at 10:31pm CDT

Day One of the offseason means the Juan Soto pursuits are underway. Until Monday, only the Yankees are allowed to discuss salary figures. However, other teams can touch base with his camp to broadly express interest and pitch their organizations now that the World Series is finished.

The top free agent has gotten no shortage of attention. Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that 11 teams were in contact with Soto’s camp by Thursday morning. The Post’s Mike Puma relays that the Mets — widely perceived as the top challenger to the incumbent Yankees — were among them.

Soto getting attention from more than a third of the league isn’t surprising. There isn’t a single front office that wouldn’t love to add him. The number of legitimately plausible suitors is much smaller. Soto’s contract demands figure to be prohibitive for all but a handful of teams, though Heyman writes that two unidentified small-market franchises were among the initial eleven. Still, it’s hard to envision Soto landing with a team that isn’t a traditional behemoth.

To that end, Heyman floats the possibility of Soto’s camp looking to top $700MM without any deferred money. While Shohei Ohtani hit that mark before adjusting for the deferrals, the deal’s net present value was well south of $500MM. MLB calculates the Ohtani deal just shy of $461MM for luxury tax purposes, while the Players Association puts it around $438MM. Either number still represents an all-time record. The Ohtani contract is the only one in MLB history to top $400MM.

There’s not much doubt that Soto is going to beat both versions of the NPV of the Ohtani deal. Doing so on a contract with a present value of $700MM is a massive ask. It’d require breaking the guarantee record by upwards of $240MM. Getting there would require at least $50MM annually over a 14-year term. Ohtani’s deferral-adjusted $46.06MM average annual value is the only AAV north of $44MM.

No free agent has signed for 14 years. Fernando Tatis Jr. is the only player to sign a 14-year contract, though his $340MM deal was an extension signed before his age-22 season. Bryce Harper got to 13 years as a free agent going into his age-26 season, as Soto is now. Harper took a relatively diminished $25.38MM annual salary, and while Soto is certainly going to beat that, shattering the AAV record and signing the longest free agent contract of all time would be an ambitious ask.

Of course, Soto is going to start free agency with extremely high expectations. The process seems likely to carry well into the offseason, perhaps beyond December’s Winter Meetings. Every high-payroll franchise figures to be linked to Soto in some capacity. The general expectation is that there’ll be a huge bidding war between Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner and Mets owner Steve Cohen, in particular. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns has already stated that the organization has the payroll flexibility to consider a run at “pretty much the entirety of the player universe.”

Puma notes that while the Mets may shy away from signing players who require draft compensation, they’re unsurprisingly willing to make an exception in Soto’s case. He’ll decline a qualifying offer, so the Mets would forfeit their second- and fifth-highest draft choices and $1MM in international bonus pool space to sign him.

That’s a non-issue for a player of Soto’s caliber. If the Mets are reluctant to surrender draft compensation, that could be a factor for their other free agent pursuits. They’ll be heavily involved on free agent pitchers. Corbin Burnes and Max Fried will get QOs, but Blake Snell and Jack Flaherty are ineligible. Borderline QO candidates include Michael Wacha, Nick Martinez and Nick Pivetta. As with Soto, they could consider Burnes and Fried to be exceptional free agents for whom they’re willing to take a hit to their farm system. That’ll be a subplot in what should be a fascinating offseason in the Big Apple.

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New York Mets New York Yankees Newsstand Juan Soto

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Giants To Name Zack Minasian General Manager

By Darragh McDonald and Leo Morgenstern | October 31, 2024 at 3:05pm CDT

The Giants are planning to name Zack Minasian their new general manager on Friday, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today. He will work under new president of baseball operations Buster Posey.

Minasian, the brother of Angels GM Perry Minasian, has been the Giants’ vice president of professional scouting since 2022 and a member of the front office since 2019.

Prior to coming to the Giants, Minasian spent 14 years working with the Brewers. He held various titles in that time, mostly in the scouting realm, before getting plucked out of Milwaukee and landing in San Francisco.

The Giants are undergoing a significant front office overhaul. Posey was tapped to replace Farhan Zaidi last month. Amid reporting on that change, it was also noted that general manager Pete Putila would be given a new role and replaced with a new GM.

Various names were floated as candidates, including Athletics assistant GM Billy Owens, Giants assistant GM Jeremy Shelley, Astros special advisor De Jon Watson and others, but the Giants will promote from within by giving Minasian the gig.

Presumably, Posey and Minasian already have some familiarity with each other. Posey was on the field for the Giants as recently as 2021 and later moved into a new role, buying a minority ownership stake and getting a seat on the club’s board of directors.

Regardless of whatever pre-existing relationship they had, their future partnership figures to be important for the franchise. Most baseball decision makers come from a background in scouting or analytics and are already familiar with the day-to-day role of running a baseball club. But Posey’s path is fairly unusual so he might be leaning on his second-in-command a bit more than other front office leaders, at least until he learns the ropes.

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Newsstand San Francisco Giants Zack Minasian

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Alex Kirilloff Announces Retirement

By Nick Deeds | October 31, 2024 at 9:41am CDT

Twins outfielder and first baseman Alex Kirilloff is retiring from his playing career, as he announced on his personal Instagram account this morning. The Twins subsequently confirmed his retirement in an announcement on X. The soon to be 27-year-old would have been slated for his second of four trips through arbitration with Minnesota this winter.

The surprising decision comes due to the numerous injuries Kirilloff has sustained throughout his career. The outfielder was plagued by a number of wrist, shoulder, and back injuries throughout his career that have caused him to make seven trips to the injured list during his four years in the majors, limiting him to just 249 games played at the big league level. That long list of injuries includes three surgeries: two on his wrist and one on his shoulder.

“In my nine professional seasons, I’ve encountered numerous injuries, which led me to search for new ways to overcome the pain. These challenges have taken a toll on me mentally and physically; over time, I’ve realized that my passion for playing the game has shifted,” Kirilloff said in his announcement. “Baseball demands an ‘all-in’ approach, something I’ve brought to every season. However, I can no longer give it the total commitment it requires. I’ve always believed that playing this game requires 110% effort, and anything less would not do justice to my teammates, coaches, fans, or the game itself.”

Kirilloff’s professional career began when he was selected 15th overall by the Twins in the 2016 draft. While he didn’t make his full-season pro debut until 2018, Kirilloff tore through the lower levels of the minors with a .348/.392/.578 slash line in 130 games at the Single-A and High-A levels in that first full season, which immediately catapulted him towards top prospect status. He entered 2019 as a consensus top-20 prospect in the sport, and even following a slight downturn in production in his first taste of Double-A action that year he remained a consensus top-30 prospect in the game when he made his big league debut in 2021.

Though hampered by a torn ligament in his wrist, Kirilloff’s first season in the majors was generally a solid one as he slashed a roughly league average .251/.299/.423 with eight home runs and 11 doubles in just 231 trips to the plate. Unfortunately, those wrist issues continued to plague Kirilloff in his second year as a big leaguer as well, limiting him to just 156 trips to the plate across 45 games and leading him to undergo wrist surgery for the second consecutive season.

After that second wrist surgery, things finally appeared to be looking up for the talented youngster last year. His season debut was delayed until early May by recovery from the aforementioned surgery, but he hit quite well out of the gate with a .314/.448/.486 slash line in that first month back in the majors. While his production tailed off a bit from there, he remained a regular fixture in the Twins lineup throughout the first half and was hitting a solid .270/.357/.442 through the end of July. Unfortunately, he promptly found himself sidelined by a strained right shoulder that would cause him to miss the entire month of August. Though he managed to return late in the year to play another 19 games in September, the ailment ultimately required yet another surgery that left him to spend his third consecutive offseason rehabbing.

When Kirilloff returned to the Twins lineup in 2024, he once again hit quite well early in the season with a .259/.323/.471 slash line through May 1. Unfortunately, the outfielder began to struggle even as his underlying metrics were solid, and he hit just .135/.207/.284 in what would ultimately be the final 30 games of his big league career. Once again hobbled by an injury, Kirilloff was placed on the injured list in mid-June due to a back injury he had been attempting to play through. The injury proved to be due to a nerve issue, and though he began a rehab assignment with the Twins in late August, that lasted just one game before he found himself sidelined once again. With a fourth consecutive offseason set to be dominated by the rehab process, that Kirilloff found himself in his own words unable to give the “110% effort” required to be a professional ballplayer is understandable.

In all, Kirilloff wraps up his big league career with 249 games played in the majors and a respectable .248/.309/.412 slash line across 884 trips to the plate. We at MLB Trade Rumors congratulate Kirilloff on the hard work and perseverance he showed throughout his career and wish him all the best in retirement.

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Minnesota Twins Newsstand Alex Kirilloff Retirement

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