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Diamondbacks Sign Corbin Burnes

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The Diamondbacks have officially announced their signing of Corbin Burnes to a six-year free agent deal. Burnes, a client of the Boras Corporation, is reportedly guaranteed $210MM and can opt out after two seasons. He’ll collect a $10MM signing bonus up front and is due $30MM salaries in the first two years. He’d need to weigh whether to leave the remaining four years and $140MM on the table after 2026. The contract reportedly includes roughly $60MM in deferred money and varying no-trade protection over the course of the deal.

The news is a shocking turn of events, as Burnes had garnered plenty of interest in free agency but had not been connected to Arizona at any point in the offseason. While some rumored suitors for the right-hander’s services such as the Yankees and Red Sox turned to alternative options for the front of their rotations by signing Max Fried and trading for Garrett Crochet respectively, a number of known interested parties remained in the mix. That included not only the incumbent Orioles but also the big-market Giants and Blue Jays, both of whom USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports offered Burnes a higher guarantee.

However, Burnes lives in Scottsdale, and playing close to home seems to have inspired the right-hander’s decision. According to Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic, Burnes was the one who approached the Diamondbacks “expressing a desire to pitch in Arizona.” John Gambadoro of 98.7FM Arizona Sports radio (multiple links to X) reports that the deal came together quickly, as talks between Burnes’ camp and the Snakes only started within the last three or four days. Diamondbacks chairman Ken Kendrick viewed signing Burnes as “too good of an opportunity to pass up,” as a source told Piecoro, and thus Kendrick okayed the biggest contract in franchise history.

Gambadoro writes that the contract contains “a significant amount of” deferred money, and a full no-trade clause covering just the 2025-26 seasons. If Burnes doesn’t opt out, Nightengale notes that Burnes’ no-trade protection is then limited to 14 teams over the final four seasons of the deal. Piecoro, meanwhile, goes into further detail regarding the deferred money. Per Piecoro, Burnes’s contract includes “a little north” of $60MM in deferred money, or between $10MM and $11MM per year deferred. Should Burnes decide to opt out following the 2026 campaign, the more than $20MM in deferred money accrued during the first two years of the deal would then need to be paid out within the following year.

Earlier this offseason, Blake Snell landed a $182MM guarantee from the Dodgers ahead of his age-32 season, and a look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker reveals that Zack Greinke, Max Scherzer, and Jacob deGrom have all signed free agent contracts that guaranteed nine figures ahead of their age-32 campaigns or older. Burnes’ deal falls short of his previously-reported goal of matching the $245MM guarantee the Nationals offered to right-hander Stephen Strasburg during the 2019-20 offseason.

By total guarantee, Burnes’ contract lands close to the seven-year, $200MM prediction that MLBTR made at the start of the offseason as part of our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, where Burnes ranked second in the class behind only Juan Soto. A closer look at the deal reveals that Burnes followed in the footsteps of virtually every other pitcher this winter, however, and landed a deal that exceeds expectations. The $35MM average annual value of the deal dwarfs the $28.57MM AAV predicted by MLBTR and even matches Strasburg, while the opt-out opportunity provides its own value in the form of flexibility.

For the Diamondbacks, it’s a massive financial outlay that beats out Greinke’s aforementioned six-year, $206.5MM deal for the largest guarantee in franchise history. Setting a club record for total guarantee in free agency would be noteworthy for any club, but it’s especially surprising coming from an Arizona team that previously indicated that they planned to run a payroll for 2025 that more or less matched their 2024 figure. As noted by RosterResource, Arizona spent just $173MM on payroll in 2024 and after signing Burnes are projected for a $194MM payroll in 2025. That hike of more than $20MM brings payroll to a completely unprecedented level for the franchise after setting a record for payroll just last year. It’s hardly a secret that the club is trying to move on from left-hander Jordan Montgomery on the trade market this winter, but even if the club manages to shed the majority of his salary they’ll have still put themselves into uncharted territory financially by signing Burnes.

That’s not to say the risk is a poor one to take, of course. Burnes established himself as among the league’s very best starters with Milwaukee during the shortened 2020 campaign, where he broke out to finish sixth in NL Cy Young award voting. He followed that performance up by going out and winning the award the following year, and the four-time All-Star has been on the shortlist for the game’s top rotation arms ever since. Over the past five seasons, Burnes ranks fifth among qualified MLB starters in innings pitched, second in fWAR, fourth in ERA, sixth in FIP, and third in strikeouts. Of course, much of that is due to a dominant 2021 season that saw Burnes lead the sport in ERA (2.43), FIP (1.69), and strikeout rate (35.6%).

Some red flags have emerged in the right-hander’s profile since then, as he’s started to go deeper into games at the expense of rate-basis dominance. His fastball velocity isn’t quite at the level it was during his Cy Young-winning campaign, and his strikeout rate has declined in each of the past five seasons until it ultimately fell to a roughly league average 23.1% this year. On the other hand, that relatively pedestrian figure started to tick back up towards the end of the season, when he struck out 27.7% of opponents faced in September. While he’s not quite matched the dominance of his otherworldly 2021 campaign in the years since, his 3.08 ERA and 3.49 FIP in 590 innings over the last three seasons ultimately still cast him as a starter who is clearly capable of fronting a playoff-caliber rotation.

He’ll be tasked with doing exactly that in Arizona this year, as the Diamondbacks appear to be all-in after narrowly missing the playoffs in 2024 despite winning more games than the 84-win 2023 club that managed to secure the NL pennant. Burnes will pair nicely with longtime club ace Zac Gallen at the front of the rotation, with veterans Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodríguez bringing up the middle. Brandon Pfaadt and Ryne Nelson represent intriguing options at the back of the club’s rotation, as will Montgomery if he’s not traded before the start of the season. Overall, the club’s rotation mix is among the most robust in the league at the moment on paper and should help to support an offense that lost both Joc Pederson and Christian Walker to free agency this winter. The front office swung a trade to land first baseman Josh Naylor in hopes of helping to plug that hole, but the club nonetheless seems likely to lean heavily on its internal youngsters like Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, and top prospect Jordan Lawlar at the plate in 2025.

It’s unclear what’s in store for the Diamondbacks going forward this winter given their unprecedented current payroll commitments. The club has long been known to be pining after help at the back of its bullpen this winter, with a trade for Ryan Helsley or signing Kirby Yates among the potential options the club has reportedly considered. Another hitter would also make sense for the club after losing both Walker and Pederson to free agency, preferably a right-handed bat to complement a heavily left-handed lineup. With that being said, it’s entirely possible that the club won’t have room to make additional moves of significance without first shedding salary in the form of Montgomery or another potential trade candidate.

Because Burnes turned down the Orioles’ qualifying offer, Baltimore will receive a compensatory pick after the first round of the 2025 draft. Gaining what currently stands as the 30th overall selection isn’t a bad consolation prize for the Orioles, but since they had designs on retaining Burnes themselves, the O’s are still on the lookout to add more frontline pitching to their rotation.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the D-Backs were signing Burnes to a six-year, $210MM deal with an opt-out after year two. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the signing bonus and the salaries for the first two seasons.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Rangers Sign Joc Pederson

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The Rangers have officially announced the signing of designated hitter Joc Pederson to a two-year deal with a mutual option for 2027. Pederson, a client of Excel Sports Management, can opt out of the contract after next season. He’s reportedly guaranteed $37MM.

Pederson, 32, has now signed his fifth consecutive contract that allows him to re-enter free agency after just one year. The slugger first reached free agency during the 2020-21 offseason and signed a one-year deal with the Cubs. He followed that up with a one-year deal with the Giants before accepting the Qualifying Offer from the club the following offseason, and most recently signed yet another one-year pact with the Diamondbacks last winter. His newest deal offers a bit more security, however, given that it comes with a player option for a second season.

The constant trips through free agency haven’t stopped Pederson from being one of the most productive lefty bats in the majors in recent years. Since making his second career All-Star appearance in 2022 as a member of the Giants, Pederson has slashed a fantastic .262/.365/.485 with a 135 wRC+. That figure leaves him with the 16th-highest wRC+ in baseball among qualified hitters over the past three seasons, and he’s sandwiched comfortably between Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jose Ramirez on that leaderboard.

Given that he’s provided superstar-caliber offense on the cheap to multiple teams in recent years, it may seem somewhat surprising for Pederson to wind up with yet another relatively short-term deal that guarantees him less than $20MM per year. That discrepancy is primarily due to Pederson’s extremely limited profile. While he’s a phenomenal hitter who rakes against right-handed pitching, his profile features a massive platoon split and he’s typically been at his best throughout his career when he sits against same-handed pitching as much as possible. He’s a career .210/.300/.330 (78 wRC+) hitter against left-handed pitching and even in the past three seasons has floated a pedestrian 104 wRC+ against southpaws.

Perhaps that on its own wouldn’t be enough to stop Pederson from getting a hefty contract in free agency, but he’s also a poor defender in the outfield who didn’t put on a glove a single time during his year in Arizona after starting just 23 games in the outfield in San Francisco the prior year. His last season as a regular on defense in 2022 saw Pederson struggle to a -11 Outs Above Average figure that landed him near the bottom of the league’s leaderboards. Even with prodigious hitting talent, Pederson’s earning power has been consistently limited on the open market due to relatively minimal upside available in signing a platoon bat who’s increasingly restricted to DH-only duties. With that context, Pederson actually did quite well in landing the deal he got from the Rangers; his $37MM guarantee significantly outpaces the two-year, $24MM pact MLBTR predicted he would land when placing him as the #24 free agent on our Top 50 MLB Free Agents list at the outset of the winter.

For the Rangers, the addition of Pederson offers some much-needed thump to a lineup that finished just 22nd in the majors with a 95 wRC+ last year. That includes utterly abysmal production at DH, where Texas managed just a 65 wRC+ that was second-worst in baseball ahead of only the Reds. The addition of Pederson not only adds another big lefty bat to the Rangers lineup to complement his former Dodgers teammate Corey Seager but also makes up for the loss of Nathaniel Lowe, who the club traded to the Nationals just last night. The additions of Pederson, Kyle Higashioka, and Jake Burger to the club’s lineup in conjunction with better health from youngsters Josh Jung and Evan Carter should give the Rangers a much stronger offense up and down the batting order while allowing the club to lean less heavily on utility man Josh Smith, who was one of the team’s top offensive contributors in the first half but faded to hit just .215/.265/.300 after the All-Star break.

With Pederson now in the fold, RosterResource projects the Rangers for a payroll of just under $217MM for 2025, and that figure jumps up to just over $229MM for luxury tax purposes. That leaves around $11MM left for the club to work with before the first luxury tax threshold, which it was reported earlier this winter that the club hopes to duck under next year. While the rotation was addressed by bringing back Nathan Eovaldi and the lineup appears to be in good shape at the moment, the club still appears to be a piece or two short in the bullpen even after adding Hoby Milner, Jacob Webb, and Robert Garcia. It’s possible the Rangers could look to follow the example they laid out in the deal that sent Lowe to D.C. in exchange for Garcia and deal a potential trade candidate like Leody Taveras, Dane Dunning, or Jon Gray in a deal that bolsters their relief corps while also freeing up payroll space that could help them land a proven closer such as Kirby Yates or David Robertson, both of whom pitched well for the Rangers in 2024 but elected free agency last month.

Now that Pederson is headed to Texas, a handful of other suitors will need to look elsewhere. The incumbent Diamondbacks reportedly had interest in a reunion with Pederson earlier this month, though it’s possible that the club’s recent trade for Josh Naylor eliminated that need and leaves them in position instead to look for some right-handed thump to replace outgoing first baseman Christian Walker. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays were connected to both Pederson and Naylor in the rumor mill and at this point could be further motivated to land a notable bat such as Anthony Santander or Teoscar Hernandez now that many of the club’s lower-level targets have come off the board.

Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News was first to report the Rangers and Pederson were discussing a contract. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal was first with the agreement. ESPN’s Buster Olney reported the two-year, $37MM guarantee and the opt-out.

Nationals Sign Josh Bell

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Josh Bell is heading back to Washington, as the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports that the first baseman has signed a one-year, $6MM deal with the Nationals.  The 32-year-old Bell is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Since Nathaniel Lowe was just acquired last week to be the Nats’ new everyday first baseman, Bell likely now slots in as the first-choice designated hitter.  Both the left-handed hitting Lowe and the switch-hitting Bell have pretty even career splits, but Bell could step in at first base every once in a while when Washington faces a left-handed pitcher, even though Lowe is a much better fielder.  As the DH, Bell’s switch-hitting bat also brings a bit more balance to a Nationals lineup that is heavy on lefty swingers.

In a career defined by major hot and cold streaks, Bell’s previous stint in D.C. stands out as perhaps the most consistent stretch of his nine MLB seasons.  The Nationals acquired Bell from the Pirates during the 2020-21 offseason, and Bell proceeded to hit .278/.363/.483 with 41 homers over 1005 plate appearances from Opening Day 2021 until he was dealt to the Padres as part of the Juan Soto blockbuster at the 2022 trade deadline.

Unfortunately for Bell and the Padres, his bat went cold after the deal, though his overall offensive output was enough for him to earn NL Silver Slugger honors for the DH position.  It also led to a two-year, $33MM contract with the Guardians that winter, but Bell didn’t hit particularly well in his first four months in Cleveland before he was again dealt at the deadline, which sparked another hot streak as he helped lead the Marlins to a playoff berth.

The pattern continued at last July’s deadline, as Bell again found himself on the move from the Marlins to the Diamondbacks.  Bell had hit only .239/.305/.394 in 441 PA for Miami last year, but his bat again came to life post-trade, as he hit .279/.361/.436 in 162 PA for an Arizona team that had temporarily lost starting first baseman Christian Walker to the injured list.

The short-term nature of this latest contract leaves open the possibility that Bell could be dealt at his fourth consecutive trade deadline if the Nationals aren’t in contention.  While Lowe is under arbitration control through the 2026 season, Bell and fellow free agent Michael Soroka were both inked to one-year deals, as the Nationals seem to be somewhat hedging their bets on their readiness to compete in 2025.  The Nats have struggled through five straight losing seasons since their World Series victory in 2019, yet with many members of their young core now in the big leagues, there was speculation Washington might be a little more aggressive this winter in firmly announcing the end of its rebuild.

This being said, Bell’s signing is certainly a boost for a Nationals club that had trouble producing offense last year, particularly in the power department.  The Nats’ 135 home runs ranked 29th of 30 teams, and CJ Abrams (with 20 homers) was the only D.C. player who went yard more often than Bell (19 homers) did in 2024.

With Bell and Lowe in the fold, expected improvement from Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr., and a full season from top prospects James Wood and Dylan Crews, there is plenty of reason to think the Nats can be a much more productive lineup.  If everything clicks and the team’s young pitching also takes a step forward, the Nationals might well get back to winning baseball next year, and then perhaps start spending on bigger-name talent next offseason.

Bell’s career walk and strikeout rates have consistently been above average, while his barrel rates have been more spotty.  His hard-hit ball rate dropped to 40.1% last season, slightly below the league average and his lowest mark since the 2018 season.  While there isn’t much sign of decline at age 32, per se, the big question about Bell is simply which version of the slugger is going to show up, given how his production has swung back and forth so sharply over the last few seasons.

Now that Bell is signed, third base remains a target area for Washington, as the team’s attempt to get Gleyber Torres to change positions from second base fell on deaf ears.  The bullpen remains a clear area of need, and there’s still plenty of time in the offseason for the Nationals to add a bigger name than Soroka as more of a clear-cut upgrade to the rotation.

Red Sox Sign Walker Buehler

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TODAY: The breakdown of Buehler’s deal is provided by MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (multiple links), who reports that the contract also contains a $25MM mutual option for the 2026 season.  Buehler receives a $3.05MM signing bonus, $15MM in base salary, and then a $3MM buyout of the mutual option, totaling the aforementioned $21.05MM guarantee.

As much as $2.5MM in bonus money is also available.  Buehler will unlock the first $500K of that cash when he makes his 20th start of the season, and he’ll earn another $500K upon making his 22nd, 24th, 26th, and 28th starts of the season.

DEC. 28: The Red Sox officially announced the Buehler signing.

DEC. 23: The Red Sox are in agreement with right-hander Walker Buehler on a one-year deal worth $21.05MM, according to a report from Russell Dorsey of Yahoo Sports. The deal is pending a physical and includes incentives that could raise the value beyond that aforementioned figure. Buehler is an Excel Sports Management client.

It’s an interesting deal for Buehler, as the $21.05MM guarantee perfectly mirrors that of the Qualifying Offer. Both Buehler himself and Red Sox right-hander Nick Pivetta were considered borderline candidates to be extended the QO at the outset of the winter. Ultimately, the Dodgers declined to extend that offer to Buehler while the Red Sox did so for Pivetta but were rebuffed. From a financial and roster perspective, today’s deal allows Buehler to secure the same guarantee he would’ve gotten had the Dodgers extended him the QO while allowing Boston to add a veteran right-hander to its young rotation on a one-year deal that mirrors what they offered Pivetta last month.

The 30-year-old right-hander was among the league’s most talented young starters during his rookie season back in 2018, and pitched to an excellent 2.82 ERA (146 ERA+) with a 3.16 FIP in a four-season stretch from 2018-21. That stretch concluded with Buehler finishing fourth in NL Cy Young award voting behind Corbin Burnes, Zack Wheeler, and Max Scherzer in a race that seemingly cemented his status as one of the league’s top aces. That career trajectory was thrown off the rails early in the 2022 season, however. Buehler pitched to a relatively pedestrian 4.02 ERA (101 ERA+) in 12 starts for the Dodgers that year before going on the injured list in June and ultimately requiring Tommy John surgery.

Buehler wouldn’t return to a major league mound until May of 2024, nearly two full years later, and struggled badly upon returning. Additional injuries limited Buehler to just 16 starts for the Dodgers this year, and even when he took the mound the right-hander struggled badly. In all, Buehler pitched to a 5.38 ERA (72 ERA+) with a 5.54 FIP in his final regular season in a Dodgers uniform. With that being said, the righty did manage to end his season on a positive note with a solid 3.60 ERA during the club’s run to the World Series championship this year. After a brutal start against the Padres in the NLDS, Buehler fired off ten scoreless frames between the NLCS and the World Series while striking out a third of his opponents.

That combination of a strong postseason, a terrible regular season, a fraught injury history, and a dominant track record made Buehler one of the most intriguing free agents on the market this winter and perhaps the ultimate high-risk, high-reward signing. To that end, it’s perhaps no surprise that he garnered interest from a huge number of teams. In addition to the Red Sox, Buehler also garnered interest from the Tigers, Cubs, Mets, Yankees, Athletics, and Braves this winter. That wide-ranging interest made it apparent early in the winter that Buehler was likely to surpass the one-year, $15MM deal MLBTR predicted he would land as part of our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, where Buehler was ranked as the #37 free agent this winter. It even seemed to open the door to the possibility the right-hander would be able to land a mutli-year deal with opt-outs; while he ultimately settled for a straight one-year pact, his $21.05MM salary in 2025 is likely much healthier than what he would’ve received on an annual basis on a multi-year deal.

For the Red Sox, the addition of Buehler adds another arm with plenty of upside to a rotation already full of it. If Buehler manages to rebound to the form he showed earlier in his career, he’ll form a daunting front two in the Boston rotation alongside lefty Garrett Crochet with right-handers Lucas Giolito and Tanner Houck joining them to create a formidable quartet. The additions of Crochet and Buehler have also significantly deepened the group, as right-handers Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Richard Fitts, and Cooper Criswell all figure to be in the conversation for starts as well after being key pieces of the club’s rotation last year. Further down the depth chart, the Red Sox also boast interesting upside plays Quinn Priester and Michael Fulmer.

The addition of Buehler brings the club’s payroll for 2025 up to just over $175MM, according to RosterResource. The figure is substantially higher for luxury tax purposes, however, sitting just under $212MM. That leaves the club with about $29MM to work with before they surpass the first luxury tax threshold. The Red Sox last surpassed that first threshold in 2022, but there’s been no indication from club brass that the first threshold represents a hard limit on their spending amid what has been a fairly busy offseason for the club. With the rotation seemingly solidified, it seems likely the club’s priorities will now shift towards adding a right-handed bat to their lineup, whether that comes in the form of an outfielder such as Teoscar Hernández or an infielder like Alex Bregman or Nolan Arenado.

Tigers Sign Gleyber Torres

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The Tigers announced Friday that they’ve signed free agent infielder Gleyber Torres to a one-year, $15MM contract. Torres, an Octagon client, is expected to be Detroit’s regular second baseman in the upcoming season. The Tigers, one of the rare teams to publicly disclose contract terms themselves, added that Torres’ contract has a one-time, $500K assignment bonus (in the event that he’s traded to another club).

Torres, who turned 28 earlier this month, has spent his entire big league career to date in Yankee pinstripes. The once-vaunted top prospect looked like a breakout star in 2019 when he socked 38 home runs in just 144 games, but Torres wound up settling in as a solid regular at second base rather than the superstar shortstop he appeared to be on the cusp of becoming in ’19. Since that stellar 2019 campaign — which came in MLB’s juiced-ball season — Torres has slashed .261/.332/.411. That’s about 9% better than average, by measure of wRC+ (which weights for home park and league run-scoring environment in a given season).

The 2024 season was shaping up to be a career-worst showing for Torres at the halfway point. Through his first 80 games, he turned in an anemic .215/.294/.333 slash (81 wRC+) with a 23.9% strikeout rate that was well north of the 19.3% mark he’d posted over the prior five seasons. Torres righted the ship in late June, however, and rebounding to the tune of a .298/.365/.421 slash with a much-improved 17.3% strikeout rate down the stretch.

It’s perhaps possible that Torres could’ve landed a multi-year deal at a lower rate, but given his age and track record, it’s not a shock to see him take a pure one-year pillow deal. MLBTR predicted back in November that he’d ink a two-year deal with an opt-out, as the priority for him always seemed likely to be getting back to the market next winter. The demand seemingly wasn’t there to push to that range, however, and Torres will head to Comerica Park as an eminently reasonable one-year roll of the proverbial dice. With a strong enough showing, he’ll have the added benefit of being a potential qualifying offer candidate for the Tigers next offseason.

Torres steps into a Detroit infield that’s lacking in any real certainty. Colt Keith, who hit .285/.330/.429 in 445 plate appearances after a terrible start to his rookie season, appears to be the only other infield lock. He played second base in 2024 but has experience at the hot corner as well. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press writes, however, that the organization prefers not to play Keith at third due to some injury concern regarding his right shoulder. Keith has taken reps at first base, and while he’s yet to play there in a professional game, he could get further work there this spring in the event of a potential position shift.

Meanwhile, Javier Baez is signed for three more seasons at $24MM per year, but he’s played himself out of a starting role and will eventually be a release candidate if he can’t rebound to at least some extent (though the Tigers have suggested this winter that they still see a role for Baez in ’25). Former top pick Spencer Torkelson belted 32 homers in 2023 but flailed through an ugly 2024 campaign and has yet to establish himself as a viable big league regular. Trey Sweeney showed a big league-ready glove at shortstop but didn’t hit in 36 big league games during last year’s second-half debut. Top prospect Jace Jung drew heaps of walks (16%) in 94 plate appearances late last season but is probably ticketed for Triple-A work or (speculatively speaking) some exposure to left field. Matt Vierling could factor in at the hot corner as well, though he can play in the outfield, too.

The glut of infield options, even with many of them unproven, gives the Tigers some flexibility with regard to how they handle the rest of the offseason. Young players like Sweeney and particularly Jung would command considerable trade interest. Torkelson stands as a viable change-of-scenery candidate, especially if the Tigers indeed plan to give Keith a prominent role at first base. Torkelson could still factor into the first base/DH mix, but he’s hardly a lock to do so after hitting .221/.300/.392 through his first 361 big league games.

The Tigers have been connected to free agent third baseman Alex Bregman, though that’d be a considerably larger signing than they’ve made at any point under current president of baseball operations Scott Harris. Some of the link there is surely due to the presence of former Astros skipper A.J. Hinch in the Detroit dugout. Petzold reported earlier in the week that Bregman has become more of a priority for the Tigers as the offseason has worn on, but the addition of Torres clouds the infield mix a bit more. A fit could still come together, particularly if the Tigers are keen on moving someone like Jung in a deal for rotation help.

In terms of payroll, there’s no reason to think the Tigers can’t make another prominent addition after adding Torres. They entered the offseason with only Baez, Keith and Kenta Maeda on guaranteed deals for the upcoming season. Torres and fellow free agent pickup Alex Cobb have pushed the team to a projected a $109MM payroll, per RosterResource’s projections. That’s nowhere near the team’s franchise-record $200MM payroll from 2017. And while that level of spending came under the ownership of the late Mike Ilitch, even Ilitch’s son, Chris, has authorized payrolls as high as $135MM in recent seasons (2022).

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported that Torres had agreed to a deal with the Tigers. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers first reported the terms and that Torres was expected to be the Tigers’ starting second baseman.

Mets Sign Sean Manaea

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On Friday evening, the Mets officially announced the signing of left-hander Sean Manaea to a three-year deal. The Boras Corporation client receives a $75MM guarantee. The deal reportedly contains $23.25MM in deferred money, which will be paid between 2035-44. New York had multiple open roster spots, so no further move was necessary.

Manaea, 33 in February, is now poised to sign with the Mets for the second consecutive offseason. In the first week of January earlier this year, the southpaw landed with New York on a two-year deal that guaranteed him $28MM and included an opt-out following the 2024 campaign. It was the second winter in a row that saw Manaea sign a two-year deal with an opt out after he signed with the Giants on a $25MM guarantee during the 2022-23 offseason.

That first contract in San Francisco was inked on the heels of a brutal 2022 season in San Diego that saw Manaea struggle to a 4.96 ERA (76 ERA+) with a 4.53 FIP in 158 innings of work. His time with the Giants went better than that; while his 4.44 ERA (94 ERA+) was still below average but he nonetheless entered the offseason boasting much stronger peripherals (3.91 FIP, 3.83 SIERA) and a solid run of starts down the stretch that September where he posted a 2.25 ERA and 3.21 FIP.

The Mets clearly believed that portended better days in Manaea’s future, and it certainly did. The lefty emerged as a quality mid-rotation option for New York in 2024 as he posted a 3.47 ERA (114 ERA+) with a 3.83 FIP in a career-high 181 2/3 innings of work across 32 starts. With a career year in the books ahead of his third consecutive trip to free agency, it seemed as though Manaea was looking for longer-term security. The Mets opted to tag the lefty with the Qualifying Offer at the outset of the winter, but it was hardly a surprise when Manaea rejected that one-year, $21.05MM offer and entered the open market anyway. After all, the lefty came into the winter ranked by MLBTR as the #10 free agent available on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list and the #5 starter behind only Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried, and Jack Flaherty.

Early in the offseason, the fact that Manaea was encumbered by the QO led a number of clubs that likely would’ve had interest in a mid-rotation veteran like him to turn towards alternative options. The Angels, Dodgers, and Cubs turned in the early days of the offseason to unencumbered free agents like Yusei Kikuchi, Snell, and Matthew Boyd rather than delve into the markets of qualified free agents like Manaea, Nick Pivetta, or Luis Severino.

That’s not a consideration for the Mets, however, as reuniting with Manaea only costs the hypothetical draft pick they would’ve received had he signed elsewhere. That’s allowed Manaea to land a healthy guarantee despite a fairly small list of teams connected to him this winter: his three-year, $75MM deal exceeds the three-year, $60MM guarantee MLBTR predicted for him at the outset of the offseason but that’s hardly a surprise given that virtually every starting pitcher’s contract has exceeded expectations. Additionally, it’s of course possible that the deferred money in Manaea’s deal drops the net present value closer to MLBTR’s prediction.

For New York, a reunion with Manaea serves as a likely capstone on the club’s efforts to reconstruct its starting rotation after he, Severino, and Jose Quintana all hit the open market last month. The club added Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes to their rotation mix earlier this winter, but that duo offers little stability given Montas’s struggles in 2025 and the fact that Holmes last started a game in the majors back in 2018. Manaea provides that much-needed stability while slotting towards the front of a rotation that also includes talented right-hander Kodai Senga and young southpaw David Peterson.

With depth options like Paul Blackburn, Tylor Megill, and Griffin Canning all in the wings to help cover for potential injuries, it would hardly be a surprise if Manaea’s return wrapped up the team’s rotation additions for the winter. That doesn’t mean the club is done entirely, however. Even with a hefty 2025 payroll that RosterResource estimates will land just shy of $280MM as things stand, that still leaves $56MM of room to work with before the Mets match their 2024 figure. That should leave plenty of room for the Mets to sign a corner infield bat to pair with Mark Vientos, whether that ends up being a reunion with Pete Alonso or an alternative option such as Alex Bregman and perhaps bolster other areas of the roster such as the bullpen or the bench.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Mets and Manaea had agreed to a three-year, $75MM deal. Will Sammon of the Athletic reported that the deal included $23.25MM in deferred money to be paid between 2035-44. Image courtesy of Imagn.

Corbin Burnes Reportedly Seeking $245MM+

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Corbin Burnes is the remaining headliner of the free agent class. The top starting pitcher is still unsigned despite the generally robust and quick-moving rotation market.

Most of the recent chatter regarding Burnes has centered on some combination of the Blue Jays, Giants, Red Sox and Orioles (albeit to a lesser extent in Baltimore’s case). Mark Feinsand of MLB.com writes that San Francisco has had a standing offer on the table, though he notes that the Giants could elect to move on to other targets if there continues to be no resolution on Burnes’ part.

Terms of San Francisco’s proposal are not clear. However, Feinsand reports that the former Cy Young winner is looking for a deal that would at least match the $245MM guarantee which Stephen Strasburg received from the Nationals over the 2019-20 offseason. (The net present value of Strasburg’s contract actually checked in around $229MM after accounting for deferrals.) The pre-deferral guarantee is the third-largest pitching investment in MLB history, trailing Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325MM contract with the Dodgers and the $324MM Gerrit Cole deal with the Yankees.

It’s unsurprising that Burnes and agent Scott Boras are shooting for Strasburg money in this market. MLBTR predicted Burnes to land seven years and $200MM in early November. Essentially every starter who has signed so far has equalled or beaten those (and most other) predictions. Max Fried was the biggest beneficiary. He landed an eight-year, $218MM contract at the Winter Meetings. That beat MLBTR’s prediction by two years and $62MM. Fried landed an extra season and $43MM than Aaron Nola received last winter.

Virtually every prognostication had Burnes above Fried. That makes something in the $220MM range feel like the former’s floor. Creating a notable separation would push Burnes close to or beyond Strasburg money. Burnes is nine months younger than Fried. He hasn’t had any injuries of note. That differentiates him from Fried, who missed three months in 2023 because of a muscular flexor strain in his forearm. Burnes has also reached bigger heights, winning the National League ERA title and Cy Young in 2022.

The one question has been a recent dip in swing-and-miss. Burnes fanned upwards of 35% of batters faced between 2020-21. That dropped to roughly 30% in 2022. It has continued to trend down over the past two seasons, falling to a slightly above-average 23.1% rate this year. Even the “diminished” strikeout rate essentially matched Fried’s 23.2% rate, though, so Burnes isn’t at a disadvantage in that regard.

That’ll be weighed against the question of which teams still have the willingness to offer a deal well north of $200MM. The Yankees would’ve been an obvious Burnes suitor if they hadn’t landed Fried. They’re probably out of the mix now. The Mets seem unlikely to make a massive commitment to a starting pitcher. The Sox have already acquired Garrett Crochet and agreed to terms with Walker Buehler on a one-year deal, adding significant upside to their rotation. They might have the payroll room to remain involved on Burnes, but they’re no longer facing the same sense of urgency to add an impact arm.

San Francisco might offer the best blend of spending capacity and need for an ace. Logan Webb is a legitimate #1, but the Giants haven’t replaced the production they lost when Blake Snell walked. Beyond Webb, San Francisco’s rotation consists of upside plays with questions about their durability and/or performance track records (i.e. Robbie Ray, Jordan Hicks, Kyle Harrison, Hayden Birdsong).

The Giants have made two nine-figure investments in recent months. They extended Matt Chapman for $151MM in September before adding Willy Adames on a seven-year, $182MM free agent deal. RosterResource calculates their luxury tax number at approximately $208MM, which puts them around $33MM shy of the base threshold. Their actual salary commitments sit around $167MM. That puts them almost $40MM below last year’s spending level. It’s not clear if ownership is willing to again push beyond $200MM in Opening Day payroll, but they could theoretically add Adames and Burnes without a significant spike in relative spending.

The Giants relinquished their second- and fifth-highest draft picks and $1MM from their ’26 international amateur bonus pool to sign Adames. They’d surrender their third- and sixth-highest selections and another $500K from the international pool if they were to land Burnes, who declined a qualifying offer from Baltimore.

Yankees Sign Jonathan Loáisiga

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The Yankees reunited with Jonathan Loáisiga on a one-year deal with a 2026 club option. Loáisiga, an ISE Baseball client, is reportedly guaranteed $5MM. He’ll receive a $500K signing bonus and a $4.5MM salary with a $5MM club option for 2026. The deal contains bonuses that could push the value of the option to $5.5MM. Loáisiga is reportedly hoping to be back on the mound by late April after undergoing an internal brace surgery this past spring.

Loáisiga, 30, began his professional career with the Giants, signing as an international free agent in 2012. Unfortunately, he struggled with injuries, and the Giants released him partway through the 2015 season. The Yankees scooped him up in 2016, but it wasn’t long before his injury troubles came back. He suffered a torn UCL, and Tommy John surgery kept him off the field until June 2017. Yet, he was sensational upon his return, pitching to a 1.38 ERA and 2.17 FIP in 32.2 innings between Rookie Ball and Low-A. It was enough for MLB Pipeline, FanGraphs, and Baseball America to rank him among the top 25 prospects in New York’s farm system entering 2018. After another strong showing that year, he shot up to the no. 2 spot on all three lists.

Success eluded Loáisiga at the big league level over his first three seasons from 2018-20. It didn’t help that various injuries plagued him during that time, most notably a shoulder strain in 2019. However, things changed when the righty moved into a full-time relief role in 2021. He continued to deal with shoulder problems (he spent most of September on the IL), but when he was on the field, he was one of the best relievers in the sport. Loáisiga pitched to a 2.17 ERA and 3.01 SIERA over 70 2/3 innings. His sinker, which was suddenly touching triple-digits, became his new primary pitch, and he paired it with a new-look curveball that was practically unhittable. Meanwhile, his changeup was his strongest weapon against opposite-handed hitters, and it helped him post almost equally impressive numbers against righties and lefties alike.

Sadly, Loáisiga has yet to pitch a full season since his 2021 breakout. His shoulder gave him trouble once again in 2022, while his elbow problems returned the following season. He had surgery to address bone spurs in his elbow in April 2023 and internal brace surgery to repair a torn UCL in April 2024. He has only pitched 69 2/3 innings over the past three years, putting up a 3.62 ERA and 3.91 SIERA. Yet, he still has plenty of promise in his powerful right arm. He averaged 98 mph on his sinker over three appearances this past April, and the handful of curveballs he threw still looked filthy. That explains why several teams expressed interest in signing him this winter, including the Padres, Rangers, Mets, and Blue Jays.

It’s also a promising sign that the team that knows him (and his injury history) best is the team that ultimately re-signed him. Unlike some of Loáisiga’s other suitors (namely the Padres and Rangers), the Yankees don’t need to hunt for bargains or bet on buy-low free agent targets. They just signed Max Fried to a massive eight-year deal, and they’re not done looking for upgrades as they try to replace Juan Soto in the aggregate. They wouldn’t have signed Loáisiga if they didn’t think he could be a valuable contributor to their bullpen.

The Yankees lost several relievers to free agency this offseason, including Clay Holmes, Tommy Kahnle, and Tim Hill. Thus, Loáisiga will slot into a ’pen that lacks high-leverage arms after Luke Weaver and Ian Hamilton. General manager Brian Cashman will presumably remain active in the market for relievers; the Yankees were linked to All-Star closer Carlos Estévez earlier this offseason, while reunions with Kahnle and Hill could also be in the cards.

Levi Luna first reported the Yankees and Loaisiga were nearing agreement. ESPN’s Jorge Castillo confirmed an agreement on a one-year deal with a club option. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman reported the finances.

Astros Sign Christian Walker

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December 23: The Astros have officially announced Walker’s signing. According to Chandler Rome of The Athletic, the deal includes a limited no-trade clause and will pay Walker an even $20MM annually per season.

December 20: A new-look Astros club will have a new first baseman in 2025, as the team has reportedly agreed to terms on a three-year, $60MM contract with free agent Christian Walker. The CAA client’s deal is still pending a physical.

Walker’s deal with Houston seems to shut the door on the possibility of a reunion with Alex Bregman. Houston recently acquired Isaac Paredes from the Cubs as part of the trade sending Kyle Tucker to Chicago, and while Paredes could’ve played first base with Bregman in the fold, he’ll be slotted in at third base with Walker now on board. Similarly, this effectively eliminates any chances of Nolan Arenado landing in Houston — an outcome that was all but at the finish line before Arenado invoked his no-trade clause to nix the deal.

Walker, 34 in March, has been a target of the Astros for some time now, dating back to the trade deadline when was reportedly at the top of their wishlist. A deal didn’t get done then, obviously, but Houston still has a need at first base after their three-year deal with Jose Abreu almost immediately imploded on them. Houston first basemen — led by Abreu and Jon Singleton — turned in an awful .226/.291/.360 batting line on the season in 2024. Walker, meanwhile, hit .251/.335/.468 — almost an exact match for the .253/.333/.464 line he carries through 3171 plate appearances dating back to the 2019 season.

On top of his quality results at the plate, Walker has emerged as arguably the premier defensive first baseman in MLB. He’s won three straight Gold Glove Awards in the National League and leads all first basemen in Defensive Runs Saved (33) and Outs Above Average (39) over the past three seasons. Matt Olson (27) and Carlos Santana (20) are second in those respective metrics. Walker’s defensive excellence at his position has essentially been unmatched.

Both Walker and the recently acquired Paredes are strong fits for the Astros, given the short left field porch at the newly renamed Daikin Park. That’s more true of Paredes, who’s one of the game’s most dead-pull and prominent fly-ball hitters. Walker has more of an all-fields approach, but when isolating his splits on pulled batted balls, he ranks 15th among qualified hitters in fly-ball rate (32.2%). Put more simply, Walker may spray the ball around a bit more than Paredes, but when he does pull the ball, he lifts it far more often than the vast majority of big league hitters. For a right-handed hitter with plenty of pop in his bat, that should play quite nicely with a 314-foot left field porch.

It’s been a bull market for free agents this offseason, and Walker had accordingly been hoping to land a four-year deal. He’ll “settle” for a year less than that on a deal that aligns with early expectations. His three-year, $60MM deal is an exact match for our predicted contract back on MLBTR’s annual ranking of the offseason’s top 50 free agents.

The $20MM annual salary on the contract puts the Astros north of the luxury tax threshold for what would be a second straight season. RosterResource now projects them at $244MM of luxury obligations — $3MM north of the $241MM tier-one threshold for the coming season. Their bottom-line payroll will depend on how that $60MM is divided over the three years of the deal, but if it’s evenly distributed, Houston would be just over $225MM in terms of actual player salary. (The luxury tax is calculated separately and based on the average annual value of all the team’s contracts.)

It’s still possible the Astros could duck back under the tax threshold. They’re reportedly telling teams they don’t intend to trade top starter Framber Valdez, but they’ve been exploring the trade market for reliever Ryan Pressly, who’s set to earn $14MM in 2025. More speculatively, they could also gauge interest in backup catcher Victor Caratini and his $6MM salary, then turn that role over to Cesar Salazar, who hit well in Triple-A and the majors this past season.

Dropping back under the tax line, however, doesn’t appear to be any kind of mandate. Owner Jim Crane said earlier in the winter that he “had the wherewithal” to cross that line and match his 2024 levels of spending if the right scenario presented itself. At the time, few envisioned that would entail trading Tucker and letting Bregman walk, but the Astros have been averse to the types of long-term megadeals both players — Tucker in particular — are expected to command. Houston hasn’t given out a contract longer than Yordan Alvarez’s six-year, $115MM contract or Jose Altuve’s six-year, $157.5MM extension under Crane’s ownership, the latter also being the largest guarantee in franchise history.

As a result, the Astros will give out their second three-year deal to a mid-30s first baseman in the past three years. Houston signed the aforementioned Abreu to a $58.5MM deal in the 2022-23 offseason and will still be paying Abreu $19.5MM this coming season after releasing him at the contract’s halfway point. That deal was negotiated by Crane himself and senior advisor Jeff Bagwell, as it came in the lull between the team’s dismissal of former GM James Click and the hiring of current GM Dana Brown. Astros fans may feel some trepidation about another multi-year deal for a first baseman well past his 30th birthday, though it bears mentioning that Abreu was 36 in year one of his contract; Walker will be 36 in the final season of this deal.

Walker declined a $21.05MM qualifying offer from the D-backs at the end of the season. As such, he’ll cost the Astros their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2025 draft, as well as $1MM of space from their league-allotted bonus pool for international amateur free agency. That’s the steepest penalty possible for signing a qualified free agent, but the Astros find themselves in that tier as a result of exceeding the luxury tax threshold in 2024. The fact that they exceeded the tax threshold also means they’d only receive a compensatory pick after the fourth round in the now-likely event that Bregman signs elsewhere.

As for the D-backs, they’ll receive a comp pick after the first round, because Walker’s agreement is for more than $50MM guaranteed. It’ll be a nice parting gift, but Walker’s production will be tough to replicate with in-house options. Former top-10 draft pick Pavin Smith hit well in 158 plate appearances last season, but that was his first big league success in parts of five seasons and came in a small sample. The Snakes can hope for a similar late-bloomer trajectory to the one taken by Walker, but odds are against that. They could look to affordable alternatives in free agency (e.g. Carlos Santana, Justin Turner, a Josh Bell reunion) or sift through a deep trade market of first base options that includes Yandy Diaz, Josh Naylor, Nathaniel Lowe and perhaps Triston Casas (though the asking price on Casas would be extreme and surely cost the D-backs some coveted young pitching).

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that the two sides were in advanced talks and closing in on a deal. Jim Bowden of The Athletic and MLB Network Radio reported that an agreement was in place, pending physical. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the terms.

Pirates Re-Sign Andrew McCutchen

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1:12pm: The Pirates have officially announced the deal.

9:05am: The Pirates are in agreement with veteran outfielder Andrew McCutchen, per the team’s social media account. The deal came together this morning. MLB.com’s Alex Stumpf and the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Andrew Destin were the first to report the terms of the contract: it’s a one-year deal that guarantees McCutchen $5MM.

McCutchen, 38, returns to Pittsburgh for his 12th season with the club and 17th season in the majors. Selected by the Pirates eleventh overall in the 2005 draft, McCutchen debuted with the club in 2009 and quickly established himself as a franchise player. He was the face of the Pirates throughout the 2010s until he was traded to the Giants prior to the 2018 season, and enjoyed an otherworldly five-year run in Pittsburgh where he slashed .302/.396/.509 (151 wRC+) en route to an MVP award, four Silver Sluggers, a Gold Glove, and five All-Star appearances.

In his five seasons away from the Pirates, McCutchen was no longer the impactful bat he was at his peak but nonetheless remained a solid, steadying presence in the lineup for the Giants, Yankees, Phillies, and Brewers. In 549 games for those clubs from 2018 to 2022, McCutchen hit a respectable .242/.343/.423 with a 110 wRC+. While he lacked the consistent power and high batting averages of his days in Pittsburgh, the veteran still provided value by getting on base at a strong clip thanks to a fantastic 12.7% walk rate during that span.

After the first below-average offensive season of his career with Milwaukee in 2022, he returned to Pittsburgh on a one-year, $5MM contract prior to 2023. He’s since signed identical contracts in the 2023-24 and now the 2024-25 offseasons, and the year-to-year arrangement seems to be working out quite well for both sides as the Pirates inch closer to a return to contention for the first time since McCutchen’s first stint with the team came to an end. Meanwhile, McCutchen has continued to age gracefully with solid production as the club’s regular DH over the past two seasons. His overall numbers in that time are remarkably similar to the five years he spent playing for other clubs, as he’s hit .243/.352/.403 with a wRC+ of 110. Since returning home to Pittsburgh, McCutchen has also reached a number of impressive career milestones including 2,000 hits, 1,000 walks, and 300 home runs.

Looking ahead to 2025, McCutchen figures to provide the Pirates with his typical steady production at DH. It’s the club’s second major move of the offseason after swapping Luis Ortiz to the Guardians in order to land Spencer Horwitz. McCutchen and Horwitz by themselves aren’t likely to dramatically alter an offense that finished third from the bottom in wRC+ with a figure of 86 that bested only the Rockies and White Sox, but there’s reason to believe the club plans to make additional moves as the offseason continues. Previous reports have connected the club to the corner outfield and bullpen markets this winter, and plenty of interesting players remain available in free agency and on the trade market at those positions. While the Pirates are hardly ever particularly big spenders, the club’s $79MM payroll projection for 2025 from RosterResource is $8MM below the club’s 2024 payroll, suggesting that there’s at least some room for additional moves even after bringing back McCutchen.

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