Dan Duquette Won’t Return To Orioles; Team Will Hire New GM From Outside Organization
7:10pm: The Orioles have announced that neither Duquette nor Showalter will be retained for the 2019 season. Director of player development Brian Graham will oversee baseball operations while the team conducts a search for an outside hire. He’s been with the team since 2007 and previously served as an interim GM for the Pirates as well.
“The club will hire an executive from outside of the organization to lead the Baseball Operations department,” the Orioles said in tonight’s press release. “Once in place, this individual will have the final determination on all baseball matters that he or she believes will make the Orioles successful on the field, entertaining to fans, and impactful in the community.”
5:06pm: The Orioles have indeed moved on from Duquette, tweets Fancred’s Jon Heyman.
4:59pm: Not only will the Orioles reportedly part ways with manager Buck Showalter, they’re also “expected to let go” executive vice president/general manager Dan Duquette, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link).
Like Showalter, Duquette’s contract expires at the end of the 2018 season. However, while reports in recent weeks had largely indicated that Showalter was likely to depart, the general sense was that the organization would hang onto Duquette. Instead, it now seems that the Orioles will be looking for both a new field manager and a new head of baseball operations this offseason.
Duquette, 60, has been with the O’s since the 2011 season and helped to orchestrate three postseason appearances, including an AL East division title in 2014. That said, Duquette’s fingerprints are also on the 2018 season’s MLB-worst 47-115 team — the fewest wins in franchise history. Not all of that disappointment can be placed on Duquette alone, as owner Peter Angelos has had his own detrimental impact on the organization at times. While Angelos gave the front office plenty of payroll capacity with which to work, he also reportedly had little interest in investing on the international amateur free agent market and was also said to be instrumental in bringing back Chris Davis on what is perhaps baseball’s worst contract at this point.
Duquette’s tenure with the O’s featured some notable successes — e.g. signing Nelson Cruz when his market collapsed in the 2013-14 offseason, extending J.J. Hardy, the initial acquisition of Mark Trumbo for pennies on the dollar — but there were as many, if not more missteps along the way as well. Free-agent deals for Ubaldo Jimenez and Yovani Gallardo proved to be busts, and the trade sending Jake Arrieta to the Cubs will go down as one of the more lopsided swaps in recent history, even if Arrieta had plenty of chances in Baltimore and was considered to be a project at the time of the deal.
Whoever steps into the GM chair in Baltimore, be it vice president Brady Anderson or an outside hire, will take over a rebuild that Duquette kicked off in earnest this past summer with the trade of Manny Machado to the Dodgers. The Orioles netted five prospects in that trade and, not long after, had also shipped out Jonathan Schoop, Zach Britton, Brad Brach, Kevin Gausman and the remainder of the injured Darren O’Day‘s contract — netting a combined 13 new prospects and some significant international funds to aid their reported pursuit of Cuban phenom Victor Victor Mesa.
The Orioles’ farm system has improved with those deals and with the success of some recent draft picks, but the organization still faces a long road back to contention in a stacked AL East division that features a pair of powerhouses in the Red Sox and Yankees, plus a surprising 90-win Rays team that has an impressive young core of stars around which to build.
Qualifying Offer Value Set At $17.9 Million
The qualifying offer value for the upcoming offseason has been set at $17.9MM, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). That value, which is determined by taking the average of the game’s 125 highest-paid players, represents a $500K increase from last offseason’s mark of $17.4MM.
Any team wishing to receive draft compensation for the loss of a free agent will first have to make that free agent a one-year offer worth that $17.9MM value. Qualifying offer recipients will have 10 days to decide whether to accept or reject the offer and are free to talk with other clubs during that window as they get an early sense of their market value. If a player accepts, he is considered signed for the 2019 season at that rate. Like other free-agent signings, that player would be ineligible to be traded, without his consent, prior to June 15 of the following season.
Only players who spent the entire 2018 season with the same organization are eligible to receive a qualifying offer; midseason trade acquisitions and signings cannot receive one. Additionally, the 2017-21 collective bargaining agreement also added the stipulation that players can only receive one qualifying offer in their career. That distinction primarily impacts Nelson Cruz, as the rest of the players who have received previous qualifying offers have either already been traded (e.g. Daniel Murphy) or haven’t performed well enough to be a candidate for a second qualifying offer anyhow (e.g. Neil Walker). Cruz would quite likely have been a candidate to receive a second qualifying offer, but the new CBA makes that impossible.
MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a recent look at the upcoming free-agent class, writing that Bryce Harper, Clayton Kershaw (if/when he exercises his opt-out clause), A.J. Pollock, Craig Kimbrel, Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel and Yasmani Grandal can be considered among the locks to receive a qualifying offer (I’d agree with all of those and add Charlie Morton to that bucket as well). Mark also took an in-depth look at a number of borderline cases throughout the league.
Draft compensation under the new system is more complicated than it was under the 2012-16 CBA, as both luxury tax spending and revenue sharing are now factored in to determine the specific penalty and compensation associated with qualified free agents. Each team’s top overall draft pick is protected, but teams with multiple first-round picks can lose their late first-rounders in some cases. Here’s a crash course/reminder.
For teams that signs a qualified free agent…
- A team that received revenue sharing the previous season will forfeit its third-highest selection upon. Signing a second qualified would result in the loss of that team’s fourth-highest selection. Signing a third would result in the loss of its fifth-highest selection.
- A team that did not receive revenue sharing and also did not pay any luxury tax penalties would lose its second-highest selection as well as $500K of the league’s allotted international bonus pool. Signing additional qualified free agents would result in forfeiting the third-highest selection and another $500K of international allotments.
- A team that paid luxury tax penalties must forfeit both its second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2019 draft and forfeit $1MM of international funds. Signing a second would result in the loss of that team’s third- and sixth-highest picks, plus another $1MM in international funds.
For teams who lose qualified free agents…
- A draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B will be awarded if the team losing the free agent did not receive revenue sharing or if the free agent in question signed a contract worth less than $50MM in guaranteed money.
- A draft pick after Round 1 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent received revenue sharing and the free agent in question signed for more than $50MM.
- A draft pick after Round 4 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent paid luxury tax penalties in the preceding season.
Addison Russell Receives 40-Game Suspension
3:20pm: The League announced that Russell has been suspended without pay for 40 games. That suspension is retroactive to Sept. 21, the date he was placed on administrative leave. That ban will carry over into 2019, rendering him ineligible to play for the season’s first month or so. Russell will not appeal the suspension, per the announcement.
3:06pm: Cubs shortstop Addison Russell will be suspended under Major League Baseball’s domestic violence policy, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN Chicago (via Twitter). The precise length of his ban is not yet certain, though Rogers suggests it’ll be between 25 and 40 games.
Russell, 24, was placed on administrative leave in September after allegations of physical and verbal abuse were brought forth by his ex-wife, Melisa Reidy. Commissioner Rob Manfred had already conducted an investigation into Russell last year after a friend of his ex-wife made allegations at the time, via social media. Reidy didn’t cooperate with the investigation at the time — a decision which she explained to Rogers in an interview that is well worth a full read for those who’ve yet to gather the full details of this situation.
The 25- to 40-game length of the ban will make Russell’s suspension one of the lighter punishments handed out by Manfred under the current policy. Earlier this season, Roberto Osuna received a 75-game suspension, and other high-profile cases have included Hector Olivera (82 games), Jose Reyes (51 games) and Aroldis Chapman (30 games). Suspensions for Olivera, Reyes and Osuna all came after criminal charges were pressed, however (resulting in jail time for Olivera; charges against Reyes were eventually dropped, while Osuna agreed to a one-year peace bond as the charge was withdrawn).
Criminal charges have not yet been brought forth against Russell, and there’s no clear indication that they ever will. Regardless, the suspension severely clouds Russell’s future with the organization. The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney recently reported (subscription required) that there has been a “sense around the team” that Russell has played his final game as a Cub.
Should the Cubs elect to retain Russell, he’ll be under club control through the 2021 season (this suspension’s length won’t impact his free-agent timeline). He’d be due a raise on this season’s $3.2MM salary after posting a dismal .250/.317/.340 batting line through 465 games. If not, he can be non-tendered and sent out into free agency, with Javier Baez likely sliding over to assume regular shortstop duties.
Orioles Part Ways With Buck Showalter
The Orioles won’t be retaining manager Buck Showalter, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (Twitter link). Showalter will be leaving the organization entirely, and not taking on any other role in the front office.
Showalter’s contract was set to officially expire this month, and it was widely expected that the O’s would be making a change in the dugout in the wake of their nightmarish 115-loss season. There was some speculation that Showalter could be offered another job to remain in the organization, and while Showalter and O’s management had talks about that possibility in the past, Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun tweets that “discussions never got to that point” in Showalter’s meeting with team ownership today.
The Orioles’ hideous 2018 performance dragged Showalter’s record as the team’s manager under the .500 mark, ending his tenure at 669-684. While the Showalter era ended on a very sour note, however, it was under his leadership that the Orioles enjoyed a big turnaround. After taking over as manager partway through the 2010 season, Showalter stewarded the team through one more losing season in 2011, extending Baltimore’s stretch of sub-.500 seasons to fourteen. That all changed in 2012, when the O’s made a surprise run to the AL Wild Card game and defeated the Rangers to earn a slot in the ALDS.
2012 was the first five straight non-losing seasons (the club went 81-81 in 2015) for the Orioles, a stretch that included another wild card appearance in 2016 and an AL East title in 2014. That 2014 team was Showalter’s best, a squad that won 96 games and defeated the Tigers in the ALDS to notch Baltimore’s first postseason series victory since 1997. All three of Showalter’s playoff teams in Baltimore outperformed their Pythagorean win-loss record, which is a good indicator of Showalter’s ability in managing a team that often seemed to catch opponents and pundits by surprise. While the O’s had such talents as Manny Machado and Adam Jones anchoring the lineup, plus the likes of Nelson Cruz or Chris Davis contributing big seasons at the plate, Showalter navigated his team to success with a focus on slugging, defense, and a quality bullpen, despite a constant lack of stability in the starting rotation.
Showalter has now concluded four different managerial stints with as many different teams, having previously stewarded the Yankees from 1992-95, the Diamondbacks from 1998-2000, and the Rangers from 2003-06. In each of those cases, Showalter helped take a struggling team (or, in Arizona’s case, an expansion team) to success, so he could stand out as a logical candidate for teams looking for a new manager this offseason. The Reds, for instance, seem to be targeting experienced names as they look to take the next step in their rebuild, so Showalter could potentially end up on their radar screen. The Blue Jays, Twins, Rangers, and Angels are the other clubs with managerial vacancies, plus more openings could still emerge. Of course, this assumes that the 62-year-old Showalter is still interested in managing, as he has been rumored to have interest in front office positions in the past.
Recent reports have indicated that Dan Duquette could stay on as Baltimore’s executive VP of baseball operations, and since Showalter was already in place before Duquette was hired by the Orioles in November 2011, this could be Duquette’s first chance at hiring his own manager (which is no small thing, as there have long been rumors of friction between Duquette and Showalter). It remains to be seen exactly what the Orioles braintrust of Duquette, Brady Anderson and the Angelos family will look for in a new manager, though with the O’s just entering what could be a lengthy rebuild, it seems likely that a new skipper will need to be experienced in developing and teaching young players.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
MLB Places Addison Russell On Administrative Leave
OCT. 2: MLB expects to reach a decision on Russell’s case “shortly,” perhaps before the end of the playoffs, commissioner Rob Manfred said Tuesday (via Patrick Mooney of The Athletic; subscription required). Interestingly, Mooney reports there’s a “sense around the team” that Russell has played his final game as a Cub.
SEPT. 28: In her first interview, Reidy discussed her experiences with Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com. Explaining that she “wasn’t ready” to talk to investigators when first contacted last year, in the wake of her split with Russell, Reidy says she was also advised by counsel to hold off on telling her own story until she was fully prepared.
Ultimately, Reidy decided to wait until her divorce had been finalized before finally electing to publicize her experiences.
“It wasn’t sitting right with me,” she said of the fact that she had yet to speak out. “I took it upon myself to do what I needed to do regardless what could happen, financially. I know that I’m going to be OK … I shouldn’t have to feel like I can’t speak out to help someone else, in order to protect someone that hurt me.”
Russell’s administrative leave has been extended through to the end of the regular season, as Rosenthal recently reported on Twitter.
SEPT. 25: The league’s decision to place Russell on administrative leave was based not only on the recently released allegations, but on “additional credible information” that has been gathered, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription post). Since prior claims of domestic abuse by Russell arose last year, the league has interviewed Reidy as well as “numerous other witnesses,” Rosenthal adds.
Notably, too, Rosenthal reports that Russell does not intend to challenge the exercise of the administrative leave authority, though he is still not precluded from doing so.
SEPT. 21: Melisa Reidy, the ex-wife of Cubs shortstop Addison Russell, has released a detailed account of the events that led to the couple’s separation and eventual divorce, alleging that Russell abused her verbally, emotionally and physically over the course of a short and tumultuous marriage. In the wake of that statement, Major League Baseball announced that Russell has been placed on paid administrative leave, as is typical during investigations under the MLB-MLBPA Join Domestic Violence Policy.
It’s the second time that allegations have been brought forth against Russell. The first instance came when a friend of Reidy spoke out on Instagram; Reidy, in the process of separating and filing for divorce at the time, did not cooperate with MLB’s investigation. Now, it stands to reason that this latest account from the alleged victim herself will bring forth a second and more serious investigation from the league. It’s unclear whether the relevant law enforcement authorities are investigating the allegations and/or whether criminal charges could be pursued.
Reidy describes multiple instances of Russell becoming physically violent, alleging that he “[laid] his hands on [her]” and “physically mistreated” her. She also details a series of verbal and emotional abuse, including intimidation via the threat of physical force. Needless to say, the allegations against Russell are serious and disturbing. At the very least, they’ll fall under the purview of Major League Baseball’s domestic abuse agreement, which gives commissioner Rob Manfred the authority to issue punishment even in the absence of criminal proceedings. (Presently, it’s not clear if Reidy plans to press charges, though the allegations could carry criminal implications as well.)
The Cubs offered the following statement:
“We take allegations of domestic violence seriously and support the League’s decision to place Addison Russell on administrative leave given new details revealed today. We will continue to cooperate with the League’s investigation so the appropriate action can be taken.”
Cubs owner Tom Ricketts and president of baseball operations Theo Epstein each addressed the matter in greater detail, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Tribune covers. Both expressed agreement with the league’s decision to place Russell on leave while indicating that he had denied the allegations to them in a meeting held this morning.
Russell has issued a statement through the MLB Players Association, asserting:
“These allegations are completely false. I made that clear to Major League Baseball last year and reiterated it to the Cubs today. I’m confident any full and fair investigation will fully exonerate me. The protection of my children is foremost in my mind so I will have no further comment.”
Notably, per Wittenmyer, the organization’s expectation is that Russell will not appear on the field again this season, though there has been no formal determination to that effect. It is common for such leave to be extended throughout the duration of an investigation, though we’ve not previously seen these type of allegations surface in such close proximity to the postseason. With that in mind, it’s worth noting that a regular-season suspension under the league’s domestic violence policy, in and of itself, does not preclude a player from participating in the postseason. (PED-related suspensions do preclude postseason participation, by rule.) It’s also worth bearing in mind, though, that league investigations are often lengthy endeavors; Roberto Osuna, for instance, was on administrative leave for roughly six weeks before Manfred and the league made a determination.
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Paul Molitor Out As Twins Manager, Could Remain In Organization
Just one year into a three-year contract, Paul Molitor is out as the Twins’ manager, according to a team announcement. He’s been offered a different job in the team’s baseball operations department.
“I would like to thank Paul for his tremendous dedication to the Minnesota Twins over his last four years as manager of this club,” said Twins executive vice president/chief baseball officer Derek Falvey in a statement issued via press release. “Paul’s roots here run deep and his commitment to the organization, his staff, and the players is special. I have every hope and desire that he remains a part of this club for many years to come.”
The Twins will immediately begin the search for a new manager, considering both internal and external candidates, per the team’s announcement. The new manager will work with Falvey and Levine to set the 2019 coaching staff.
Molitor, 62, was never the first choice of Twins Falvey and general manager Thad Levine after they were appointed at the start of the 2015-16 offseason. The Hall of Famer and St. Paul, Minn. native was hired by former general manager Terry Ryan as a successor to longtime skipper Ron Gardenhire. After Minnesota dismissed Ryan from his post as GM, owner Jim Pohlad stipulated as part of the new front office search that whoever he hired to oversee the baseball operations department would do so with the understanding that Molitor was the Twins’ manager.
At the time, Molitor was only under contract for one more season. The common expectation was that Falvey and Levine would let Molitor manage the final season of that contract and then make their own hire, but the Twins’ shocking 2018 playoff berth and Molitor’s Manager of the Year nod left the newly minted executives with little choice but to extend him. The optics of firing a manager whose team had gone from 100 losses to an American League Wild Card play-in would’ve been astoundingly poor, and so Molitor was rewarded with a new three-year pact.
The 2018 season, however, was nearly as disappointing as the 2017 season was surprising. Minnesota entered the year with expectations of contending — if not for the division then surely for a second straight Wild Card appearance. Instead, they spent nearly the entire year without projected top starter Ervin Santana (finger surgery) and watched two of their should-be cornerstones, Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton, struggle through nightmarish seasons that surpassed even the most pessimistic expectations for the pair. Brian Dozier, meanwhile, played through a knee injury early in the season and never regained his footing, while offseason pickups Logan Morrison (hip impingement/labrum tear, eventual surgery) and Addison Reed (elbow impingement) each saw their seasons hampered by physical ailments as well.
The end result of it all was a 78-84 team that only finished anywhere near .500 by virtue of a September surge that came mostly against poor competition and was capped off by a six-game winning streak against the rebuilding Tigers and White Sox.
Minnesota will now set out in search of what will be just its fourth manager since Tom Kelly took over as a 35-year-old rookie manager at the tail end of the 1986 season. Kelly’s Twins went on to win the World Series in both ’87 and ’91, and he remained at the helm until ceding the reins to Gardenhire, already a long-time Twins coach at that point, following the 2001 season. A lengthier search and full slate of interviews figures to follow, though 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson tweets that Indians bench coach Brad Mills, with whom Falvey is familiar from his time as an AGM in Cleveland, was of interest to the Twins last year before the decision to extend Molitor’s contract was made.
Yahoo’s Jeff Passan broke the news that the Twins were calling a press conference and suggested that it was to announce Molitor’s dismissal (Twitter link). USA Today’s Bob Nightengale definitively reported that Molitor was out as manager (Twitter link). ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reported that Molitor was being offered another position within the organization rather than strictly being fired (Twitter links).
Dansby Swanson Diagnosed With Partially Torn Ligament In Left Hand
Oct. 1: Swanson didn’t take any swings Monday, Bowman tweets, adding it “seems highly unlikely” he’ll end up on the Braves’ NLDS roster.
Sept. 30: Swanson felt discomfort while taking dry swings on Saturday, manager Brian Snitker said (Twitter link via Bowman). The Braves will further evaluate Swanson on Sunday, though they may not know until Wednesday whether he’ll be available to play, per Bowman.
Sept. 28: Swanson’s hand has improved in the past couple of days, tweets MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. There’s no determination yet on whether he’ll be healthy enough for postseason play, but he could hit off a tee this weekend. The organization remains hopeful that Swanson will indeed be ready for the NLDS.
Sept. 26: Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson has been diagnosed with a partially torn ligament in his left hand, the team announced today on Twitter. He’ll receive daily treatment over the season’s last few days before being reevaluated prior to the start of the National League Division Series. It’s the same hand that sent Swanson, 24, to the Disabled List for two weeks this May.
Swanson, the first overall pick in the 2015 draft, was in desperate need of a rebound following his disastrous 2017 campaign, which saw him post below replacement-level marks in nearly a full season’s worth of time. For the most part, he eased concerns, upping his ISO from .092 to .157 and posting career highs across the board defensively, where his 11 DRS was good for 6th among all Major League shortstops.
His bat, though, projected by many to deliver perennially above-average marks in the average and on-base departments, has again failed to deliver on its promise. Swanson slumped to a miserable .213/.296/.376 over the season’s second half, struggling mightily against left-handed pitching and striking out nearly 23% of the time. His .283 xWOBA ranks 198th out of 205 players with at least 400 PA in 2018, which certainly doesn’t augur well for seasons to come.
Despite the struggles, though, Swanson has established himself as a legitimate regular in the middle of the diamond for the NL East-Champion Braves, who rode a coterie of hype-exceeding prospects to their first division title (and winning season) in five years. Swanson, to be sure, will be afforded ample opportunity to right the ship, what with his four years of team control remaining and not-too-distant status as a former #1 overall prospect.
In the interim, the Braves will almost surely turn to a mix of Charlie Culberson – he of the startling .279/.330/.484 line this season – and Johan Camargo, whose 117 wRC+ has wildly surpassed any available preseason projections, to man the position, with the other figuring to receive the bulk of the time at the hot corner.
Shohei Ohtani Undergoes Tommy John Surgery
Oct. 1: Ohtani’s surgery was performed today, tweets Maria Guardado of MLB.com.
Sept. 25: Angels starter and DH Shohei Ohtani will undergo Tommy John surgery next week, the club announced to reporters including Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group (via Twitter). While the outcome was expected, it’s nevertheless significant for a player who has emerged this year as an unprecedented dual threat.
Renowned surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache will perform the procedure. Ohtani will almost certainly not return to the mound until the 2020 season. Of course, the expectation is that he will continue to function as a hitter for the Angels in 2019.
It’s extremely disappointing to see Ohtani’s first season in the majors draw to a close with surgery awaiting. That said, his continued excellence as a hitter since being shut down as a pitcher certainly leaves plenty of cause for continued excitement, even during his TJ rehab.
Ohtani will be ready to hit far before he’s ready to pitch, of course, so he and the Halos anticipate that he’ll be a full part of the roster next season. (Whether he’ll be ready by Opening Day is, however, not yet certain.) Once he’s ready to do both, Angels GM Billy Eppler recently made clear, he’ll go right back to functioning as a hybrid weapon unlike any other in baseball.
Of course, it’s also worth remembering that damage to Ohtani’s ulnar collateral ligament was evident before he joined the Angels over the winter. When new damage arose in the middle of the 2018 season, Ohtani tried a surgical alternative. But he went down again after ramping back up, making TJS an all-but-foregone outcome.
Ohtani is still putting the finishing touches on his season at the plate, but currently sports an eye-popping .280/.361/.564 slash with 21 home runs in 347 plate appearances. While he only has ten MLB starts under his belt, the 24-year-old has shown ample ability in that area as well. Through 51 2/3 innings, he posted a 3.31 ERA with 63 strikeouts against 22 walks.
With Ohtani on the shelf, and Garrett Richards slated for free agency after another Tommy John surgery of his own the Angels’ rotation is now officially on the look for significant help. The top rotation options heading out of the 2018 season appear to be Andrew Heaney, Tyler Skaggs, Matt Shoemaker, and Jaime Barria.
Seibu Lions To Post Yusei Kikuchi
The Seibu Lions will make left-hander Yusei Kikuchi available this winter via the posting system, according to a report from Sankei Sports (hat tip to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times). The 27-year-old isn’t eligible for full free agency until 2020, but reports from earlier this year indicated that Kikuchi was interested in testing himself in Major League Baseball, and it had been expected that the Seibu Lions would accommodate his request.
Kikuchi immediately becomes one of the most intriguing members of the 2018-19 free agent class, as he has posted strong numbers over eight pro seasons (all with Seibu Lions, apart from five starts in the Australian Baseball League in his rookie year). Kikuchi has a 2.81 ERA, 8.0 K/9, and 2.43 K/BB rate over 1035 1/3 career innings, and particularly stood out after recording a 1.97 ERA and 10.4 K/9 over a career-best 197 2/3 frames in 2017.
Despite taking a bit of a step back results-wise (3.08 ERA, 3.40 K/BB rate, 8.4 K/9) this season, Kikuchi still drew quite a bit of attention from Major League scouts. Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman recently wrote that “most teams have been to Japan to see him this year,” specifically naming the Royals, Padres, Dodgers, and Phillies as interested suitors. Evaluators from the Brewers, Giants, Red Sox, and Rangers also recently watched Kikuchi, as per the Kyodo News’ Jim Allen (Twitter link).
For an idea of what Kikuchi brings to the mound, Fangraphs’ Sung Min Kim provided a scouting report before the season, while MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi had a look at Kikuchi’s 2018 season back in August. Kikuchi has a strong slider and a fastball in the 92-94mph range (that has touched 98mph at its fastest) as his two primary pitches, and he has worked both a changeup and a curveball into his repertoire this season, as former big leaguer and current Rakuten Golden Eagles pitcher Frank Herrmann told Morosi. Herrmann warned that Kikuchi’s slider wasn’t as effective this year as it was in 2017, which led to Kikuchi leaning more heavily on his two secondary pitches. Kim used Patrick Corbin as a partial comp for Kikuchi, as another left-hander with a strong fastball-slider combination, with the caveat that Kikuchi’s usage of the curve roughly 10% of the time is a notable difference between he and the Diamondbacks hurler.
Kikuchi’s durability could also be an issue, as shoulder problems have bothered him at several points during his career, including this season. Kikuchi “had not reached the qualified amount of innings pitched in a season until 2016,” Kim writes. The southpaw is listed at just 6’0″ and 194 pounds, and thus doesn’t have the big frame that would more easily project as capable of handling a regular turn in a Major League rotation, so interested teams could be wary of how Kikuchi would hold up health-wise. That said, with more and more teams using their bullpens in creative ways, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Kikuchi eased the big leagues by pitching receiving an extra day of rest, working on a limited pitch count in starts, or any number of other possible answers if his shoulder is of particular concern.
Kikuchi first appeared on the Major League radar screen back in 2009, when he considered taking the unusual step of signing with an MLB team as an amateur rather than an NPB club. It’s interesting that several of the teams — the Dodgers, Rangers, Red Sox, and Giants — interested in Kikuchi almost a decade ago are still keeping an eye on him now, after he has established himself as a quality starter in Japanese baseball.
There was some thought earlier this year that Kikuchi could land a $100MM contract from a Major League team, though it’s possible that price tag has dropped thanks to the slight dip in form and the shoulder problems that Kikuchi dealt with over the 2018 season. Kikuchi’s age and experience makes him exempt from the international bonus pool system, so he is in line for a very lucrative multi-year contract rather than the limited deal that Shohei Ohtani had to settle for as a 23-year-old last winter.
Kikuchi also looks to be the first major name whose arrival in North American baseball will be covered by the new posting agreement between MLB and NPB. Under the former agreement, Japanese teams would receive a posting fee that maxed out at $20MM, whereas now teams will receive a posting fee that is determined by the size of the contract that the player signs with his new Major League team. Morosi notes that a player must be posted between November 1 and December 5, and the player will have a 30-day window to negotiate with teams after being posted.
Angels Manager Mike Scioscia To Step Down
Mike Scioscia is stepping down from his post as Angels manager, the veteran skipper announced to the media (including Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times and MLB.com’s Maria I. Guardado) after the Halos concluded their final game of the season. Rumors had swirled since August that this would be Scioscia’s final year as Los Angeles’ manager, and while there was some indication that Scioscia would retire from baseball altogether, he said today that he would be open to another managerial job with another club.
According to team president John Carpino (via Shaikin and other reporters), it was Scioscia’s decision to not return to the Angels. This doesn’t exactly match last week’s news that Scioscia wanted to remain with the club, as he said he would make his final choice after talking with owner Arte Moreno and GM Billy Eppler. This was the final season of Scioscia’s ten-year/$50MM contract, so the Angels could possibly have felt that change was necessary in the wake of three straight losing seasons.
Still, Scioscia’s 19-year tenure as the Angels’ bench boss has easily been the most successful stretch in franchise history. Scioscia was a first-time manager when originally hired prior to the 2000 season, and he ended up managing the fifth-most games with a single franchise of any skipper in baseball history. He currently sits 18th on baseball’s all-time managerial win list with 1650 victories (against 1428 losses). Scioscia’s resume with the Halos included 11 winning seasons, six AL West titles, and the crowning jewel of the 2002 World Series championship, the first and only time the Angels have hoisted the Commissioner’s Trophy.
Over the last nine seasons, however, the Angels reached the postseason only once, a trip that resulted in an ignominious three-game sweep to the Royals in the 2014 ALDS. Given that the game’s best player (Mike Trout) was on the roster for much of this stretch and the Angels have consistently posted large payrolls under Moreno’s ownership, there have been whispers over the last couple of years that Scioscia wouldn’t be back in 2019, if not sooner. In fairness to Scioscia, however, it’s hard to blame him for the Angels’ recent struggles given that the team has been hit by a staggering amount of pitching injuries over the last three years.
It isn’t clear if Scioscia (who turns 60 in November) will pursue a managerial post immediately, or if he might take a year off to recharge his batteries and test the market. The Reds, Rangers, and Blue Jays are the only three teams known to be looking for new managers this winter, and there has been heavy speculation that the Orioles could also be looking to replace Buck Showalter. It’s possible more jobs could open up in the coming days or even weeks, depending on whether any playoff teams decide to make a change in the dugout.
The Angels will now embark on their first managerial search of the 21st century. As Ken Rosenthal initially noted last August in his report about Scioscia’s impending departure, top in-house candidates for the job include bench coach Josh Paul, special assistant Brad Ausmus, and Triple-A manager Eric Chavez. Fancred’s Jon Heyman wrote earlier this week that Chavez could be the favorite, as he only took over the Triple-A job (moving from his own special assistant role under Eppler) in early August, around the time of Rosenthal’s report. It’s fair to assume that a wider-ranging search could take place, as external candidates are likely to have strong interest in a managing a roster that includes the likes of Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton, and other intriguing pieces, though obviously the front office has some work to do this winter to get the Angels back in contending form.
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