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Latest On Andrew Cashner
TODAY, 10:00am: The Giants are still in “active talks” with San Diego regarding Cashner, Morosi tweets, so evidently the market for his services remains wide open.
YESTERDAY, 8:05pm: Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports (via Twitter) that clubs eyeing Cashner wanted to see him pitch one more time before deciding whether to meet the Padres’ asking price. Cashner got off to a rocky start when he walked Jose Bautista and gave up a two-run homer to Josh Donaldson, but he recovered quite well, finishing the evening with three runs allowed on four hits and three walks with six strikeouts in six innings.
6:16pm: The Blue Jays/Padres game is underway with Cashner on the mound, so there’s clearly nothing imminent at this time.
3:54pm: Morosi adds that the Padres are still discussing Cashner with multiple clubs, but there’s been enough progress in talks that he could be scratched from tonight’s start vs. the Blue Jays (Twitter link).
3:39pm: The Padres are making progress on a trade involving Andrew Cashner, reports MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). Cashner, widely expected to be on the move prior to the Aug. 1 non-waiver deadline, could even be moved before tonight’s scheduled start against the Blue Jays, Morosi adds. Bleacher Report’s Scott Miller, however, heard otherwise earlier today, tweeting that the Padres are expecting Cashner to start in tonight’s game. However, Miller did add that trade talks surrounding Cashner continue, with the Blue Jays and Marlins “heavily” involved and the Rangers involved to a lesser extent.
Last week, Morosi reported that the Padres were trying to move Cashner before his Thursday start in St. Louis, though obviously those efforts came up short. Cashner threw well against the Cardinals, however, limiting them to a run on three hits and no walks with eight strikeouts across 5 2/3 strong innings, so if anything the delay in finding a trade partner may have caused an ever-so-mild uptick in his value.
Cashner, 29, is currently sporting a 4.79 ERA on the season with 7.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and a 47.3 percent ground-ball rate in 73 1/3 innings. A neck strain and a hamstring strain have resulted in a pair of DL stints and limited his innings this season, further compounding the Padres’ efforts to extract strong value in a potential trade. That said, Cashner’s heater is averaging 93.6 mph this season and has trended upward of late, and he’s still displaying an ability to rack up grounders at a rate that is slightly above the league average. His status as a former high draft pick and top prospect that looked to be delivering on that hype as recently as 2013-14 (2.87 ERA in 298 1/3 innings) creates somewhat of a sense of upside as well, even if the 2015-16 seasons have yielded decidedly underwhelming results (4.47 ERA in 258 innings).
A number of teams have been connected to Cashner in recent weeks, with the Orioles, Marlins, Blue Jays, Rangers and Giants among the supposedly interested parties. Cashner is earning $7.15MM in his final season before hitting the free agent market, and about $2.67MM of that sum remains on his contract through the end of the year. Cashner’s name has been in trade rumors for months, and the right-hander has accepted the fact that his days in San Diego are nearing an end. “I know I’m going to be traded,” Cashner told Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune following his start last week. “It’s just part of the game, part of where the season’s at.”
Blue Jays, Mariners Swap Drew Storen, Joaquin Benoit
10:48pm: The cash considerations going to Seattle in the deal are simply to offset the difference between Storen’s $8.35MM salary and Benoit’s $8MM salary, reports Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune (on Twitter).
10:09pm: The Mariners announced tonight that they have acquired right-hander Drew Storen and cash considerations from the Blue Jays in exchange for right-hander Joaquin Benoit. Storen was designated for assignment by the Blue Jays over the weekend.
The trade represents a swap of struggling veteran setup men, as each has posted an ERA north of 5.00 this season. Storen’s struggles have been more pronounced, as the former Nationals closer has posted a 6.00 ERA in 33 1/3 innings for the Blue Jays this season after opening the year as the top setup man to sophomore closer Roberto Osuna. Storen has posted a very solid 32-to-10 K/BB ratio in that time and delivered a strong 47.2 percent ground-ball rate, but he’s also experienced a significant dip in his fastball velocity. After averaging 94 mph on his heater last season, Storen has checked in at 91.9 mph in 2016. He’s thrown his four-seamer less often, swapping it out for an increased reliance on his sinker — hence a nearly nine percent increase in his ground-ball rate — but home runs have plagued Storen this year. Over the life of his career, he’s posted an 8.2 percent homer-to-flyball ratio, but that number has more than doubled to a whopping 17.6 percent this season. The shift to the American League East and, more specifically, the homer-happy Rogers Centre, has perhaps contributed to some of the increase, but a rate that high is almost always due for some regression. Abandoning the current launching pad in which he pitches his home games should do Storen some good, especially when considering that he’ll move into the spacious confines of Seattle’s Safeco Field.
Benoit, meanwhile, has pitched to a 5.18 ERA across 24 1/3 innings in that decidedly more pitcher-friendly environment. Unlike Storen, his velocity is holding strong at age 39 (today is his birthday), but Benoit has seen a significant increase in his walk rate. Benoit experienced some control problems earlier in his career, but he averaged just 2.6 walks per nine innings from 2010-15 as he established himself as one of the game’s more reliable late-inning relievers. In 2016, however, he’s walked 15 batters (one intentional) in 24 1/3 innings and also hit a batter. Those 15 walks are just eight fewer than the 23 total walks he issued in 65 1/3 innings last year, and they’re actually greater than the 14 free passes handed out by Benoit in an excellent 2014 season that saw him throw 54 1/3 innings with the Padres. Benoit, too, has had some uncharacteristic struggles with the long ball, but the control and an inability to strand runners have been his biggest flaws.
From a contractual standpoint, each player is a free agent at season’s end. Benoit is earning $8MM to Storen’s $8.35MM this season, so the cash considerations that are exchanging hands in this deal are fairly minimal.
[Related: Updated Blue Jays and Mariners Depth Charts]
In some respects, this trade is reminiscent of a swap that Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto made in his days as GM of the Angels, sending struggling closer Ernesto Frieri to the Pirates in exchange for their own underperforming ninth-inning arm: Jason Grilli. Essentially, the trade boils down to a swap of comparably priced assets that had faltered in a similar role despite lengthy track records of success — albeit with other organizations. Both Storen and Benoit were in the first season with their respective, now-former teams, having each been acquired in an offseason trade. Toronto sent Ben Revere to the Nationals in order to acquire Storen, who had spent his entire career to date in Washington. The Mariners picked up Benoit in a trade that sent minor leaguers Enyel De Los Santos and Nelson Ward to the Padres.
Entering this season, Storen had a career 3.02 ERA with 8.6 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 in 334 innings with the Nationals, who selected him 10th overall out of Stanford back in 2009. Benoit, on the other hand, reinvented himself with the 2010 Rays after shoulder surgery caused him to miss the entire 2009 season. From 2010-15, he pitched to a brilliant 2.35 ERA with 10.0 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 in 379 innings for the Rays, Tigers and Padres.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Blue Jays Acquire Melvin Upton
The Blue Jays have officially struck a deal to acquire outfielder Melvin Upton from the Padres. Young righty Hansel Rodriguez constitutes the return to San Diego, which will pay all but $5MM of the approximately $22MM owed to Upton this year and next, Heyman tweets.
The swap is likely to be finalized today, says Rosenthal, who had reported last night that Toronto was in the lead to add Upton. Among the other teams said to have had real interest were the Orioles and Indians, each of whom will need to look elsewhere to bolster their outfield reserves.
Upton brings a versatile, right-handed-hitting bat to the Jays’ alignment. He is only checking in with a league-average batting line on the year — with a .256/.304/.439 slash that reflects the fact that he has struck out in nearly one-third of his plate appearances — but has had a bigger impact than that. Upton has also swatted 16 home runs and swiped twenty bags, both of which are more reminiscent of his top-level output in those departments from his days with the Rays.
With a quality glove that is plenty capable of handling center field, Upton figures to be a frequently-used semi-regular for Toronto. The team hasn’t received much with the bat from center fielder Kevin Pillar this year, though he is a top-flight defender. Left fielder Michael Saunders has been a revelation, but despite his quality numbers this season against lefties could probably stand to take a rest from time to time when a southpaw is on the hill. And star slugger Jose Bautista is likely to have the most impact — both down the stretch and, the team hopes, in the playoffs — if he isn’t used too heavily in right field. Upton will likely see action in all three spots, relegating Ezequiel Carrera to a fifth-outfielder role (if he is able to hold onto his roster spot).
Upton is playing in the second-to-final season of the big contract he inked with the Braves before the 2013 campaign, which was shipped to San Diego two years later. He has $5.63MM left on his salary for the present season, with $16.45MM still to come for 2017. Given that San Diego will be picking up most of the tab, it seems reasonable to think both that the market demand for Upton wasn’t all that great and that the Padres put a reasonably substantial value on the rights to Rodriguez.
[Related: Updated Blue Jays and Padres Depth Charts]
With larger-salaried players including Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and R.A. Dickey set to hit the open market after the year, Toronto may well have somewhat greater payroll flexibility for 2017 than it does at present. It also now has one more piece of its outfield puzzle in place for the coming season, with not only Bautista but also Saunders soon able to go to the highest bidder (even if they do so with a qualifying offer hanging over them).
For the fourth-place Padres, the deal continues a broader sell-off as the organization’s attention shifts to acquiring young assets. Certainly, the fact that Upton was able to restore his stock constitutes a big win for San Diego, as his contract was significantly under water when he was included as part of the financial machinations in the pre-2015 Craig Kimbrel swap. Beyond the prospect value coming directly from this deal, San Diego GM A.J. Preller ought to be able to redirect the cost savings on Upton’s deal to buy-low veterans who could themselves turn into trade chips.
Rodriguez, 19, adds another potential future hurler to the system. He signed out of the Dominican Republic for a $330K bonus in February of 2014, as Ben Badler of Baseball America reported at the time, and has continued to show an intriguing arm since that time, as BA’s Josh Norris has noted. Currently, Rodriguez is pitching in the Rookie-level Appalachian League, where he owns a 3.62 ERA in 32 1/3 innings over six starts, with 7.2 K/9 against 3.1 BB/9. He has risen to 18th on MLB.com’s most recent ranking of the Jays’ system, with the prospect evaluators noting that he has a very live arm but still needs a lot of polish to his mechanics and secondary offerings.
Even better, clearing Upton from the roster allows the Friars to allocate playing time to some top prospects who seem prepared for a shot at the big leagues. Hunter Renfroe is presently laying waste to Triple-A pitching at 24 years of age, so he’d certainly qualify. And the younger Manuel Margot has his own case for a promotion; he’s hitting well in his first go at the highest level of the minors and could represent a near-future option in center.
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports first reported that Upton had been traded to Toronto (via Twitter); Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reported the return and financial details (Twitter links). Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca first reported in a tweet that a significant portion of Upton’s salary would remain with the Padres.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
The Ad Experience On MLBTR
TODAY, 7:06am: Have you ever used the debugging proxy application Charles? If you have, and you’re able to reproduce MLBTR’s mobile site redirect problem, please email us at mlbtrhelp@gmail.com. We’d like to work with you on a paid project to root out the bad ads.
YESTERDAY, 3:46pm: Thousands of MLBTR readers kindly provided feedback recently on how we can improve the site. Today, I’d like to discuss our advertising.
Based on survey feedback and emails we’ve received, many of you are experiencing ads on our mobile site that automatically redirect your browser. Sometimes it goes to the app store, sometimes to other sites, but it’s always incredibly annoying. I’m sorry you’ve had to deal with it. At MLBTR, we loathe these ads. We don’t make money from them; they are the result of shady ad networks violating their terms. You can read more about the issue here; it is something even Google and Apple have been unable to stop.
I don’t say that as an excuse, but just an explanation. We’ve worked to remove these redirect ads for years, but it’s been a game of Whac-A-Mole. This month I am putting additional resources toward the problem. I am also hopeful that eventually, browsers will be able to stop redirects, as was Apple’s intention for Safari in iOS 8.
In the meantime, there are a couple of options you might consider. The first is to download our free app, Trade Rumors, and use that instead of the mobile website. The app has fewer ads than our mobile site does, and has never had any redirect issues. It’s also a well-reviewed app that offers custom notifications and a sleek reading experience on mobile devices.
Another option is to sign up for Google Contributor. This paid service covers any website that shows Google ads (including all of the Trade Rumors sites) and reduces the number of ads you’ll see. Google Contributor automatically uses your monthly fee to attempt to outbid a website’s advertisers. When your bid wins, you don’t see an ad. You’ll instead see an empty space where the ad was, or pictures of cats if you prefer. While Contributor can be used across millions of websites that you can potentially visit, I personally use it exclusively to reduce the number of ads shown on my five favorite baseball websites. It removes thousands of ads per month for me on those sites, and any portion of my fee that I don’t use each month is refunded by Google. I consider Google Contributor a win-win, as I give a few bucks per month to my favorite websites and see fewer ads.
Finally, if you have experience with the web debugging proxy application Charles, you could try catching a redirect in the wild. It’s way more fun than catching Pokémon. If anyone is able to record a Charles session of a mobile redirect happening on MLBTR, please send it to me at mlbtrhelp@gmail.com and I’ll make sure that offending ad is eliminated.
We’ll continue to do everything we can to root out the bad ad networks. Thanks for your patience and understanding in this matter.
Cubs Acquire Aroldis Chapman
2:37pm: The Cubs and Yankees have each formally announced the trade. Warren will join the Yankees’ Major League roster, while McKinney will head to Double-A Trenton. Torres and Crawford are each bound for Class-A Tampa.
11:03am: After months of being linked to a hard-throwing left-hander for their bullpen, the Cubs have reportedly acquired the hardest-throwing pitcher in all of Major League Baseball, reaching an agreement with the Yankees that will send Aroldis Chapman from New York to Chicago in exchange for shortstop prospect Gleyber Torres, right-hander Adam Warren and minor league outfielders Billy McKinney and Rashad Crawford.
The Cubs have been linked to Chapman and fellow lefty Andrew Miller for months, but the Yankees seemingly never wavered from their asking price of Kyle Schwarber in exchange for Miller, and the Cubs never budged on their refusal to discuss the injured slugger. Instead, the Cubs will pick up Chapman — long one of the best closers in all of baseball but also a free agent at season’s end, making the four-player package headlined by Torres a steep price to pay. However, the Cubs have more wins than any team in Major League Baseball and are making a clear effort to deepen their roster not just to get to the postseason but to thrive upon arriving there. The structure of the postseason schedule allows clubs to more heavily rely on their bullpen arms due to the frequency of off-days in the schedule, making Chapman that much more valuable in a five- or seven-game series.
The 2016 season has seen Chapman continue his on-field excellence, posting a pristine 2.01 ERA with 12.6 K/9, a career-best 2.3 BB/9 and a 37.3 percent ground-ball rate. Chapman’s fastball has averaged a staggering 100.1 mph this season, which is a strong driving factor behind an 18.2 percent swinging-strike rate that is the fourth-highest in MLB. Since taking over as the Cincinnati closer back in 2012, Chapman has compiled a 1.91 ERA with 165 saves and a ridiculous 500-to-117 K/BB ratio in 287 innings of relief work. He’s earning $11.325MM this year and has about $4.33MM remaining on his salary through season’s end.
Chapman becomes the second hard-throwing lefty to join the Cubs’ bullpen in the past week, as Chicago also picked up lefty Mike Montgomery from the Mariners in a trade that sent slugging (and blocked) minor league first baseman Dan Vogelbach to Seattle. Chapman figures to supplant Hector Rondon as the Chicago closer, pushing Pedro Strop to the seventh inning. Montgomery and right-hander Carl Edwards Jr. will mix in as well, as will right-hander Justin Grimm and veteran right-hander Joe Nathan, who was just brought to the Majors over the weekend after completing rehab from Tommy John surgery. Travis Wood has pitched to a 2.88 ERA this season and is second among Chicago relievers in terms of innings pitched, so he’s likely to become the third lefty in manager Joe Maddon’s bullpen. As such, the acquisition of Chapman could push left-hander Clayton Richard, who has a 6.43 ERA in 14 innings this year, out of the picture.
[Related: Updated Chicago Cubs and New York Yankees Depth Charts]
Chapman’s time with the Yankees will ultimately prove to be brief in nature, as he spent just a few months in the organization and only a bit more than two months on the active roster due to a 30-game suspension under Major League Baseball’s domestic violence policy. Chapman was investigated by the league this offseason following allegations of assaulting his girlfriend at a party and later discharging a handgun in his garage, though he was never arrested nor were any charges filed. While the moral and ethical implications of acquiring a player associated with that investigation can be debated to no end, from a pure baseball perspective, the investigation drastically lowered the price for the Yankees to acquire Chapman this winter. They’ll now swap out Eric Jagielo, Rookie Davis, Caleb Cotham and Tony Renda for a significantly more talented package of talent, headlined by Torres and McKinney.
Warren will return to the Bronx with two and a half years of service time, and he’ll be a familiar face for the Yankees, who just this offseason traded him to the Cubs in order to acquire Starlin Castro. However, Chicago proved to be a struggle for Warren, who pitched to a 5.91 ERA in 35 innings with the Cubs. Considering the strong work that Warren did from 2013-15 with the Yankees — 3.23 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 45.3 percent ground-ball rate — the extent of his struggles was fairly surprising. The primary culprits for Warren were a dramatic spike in his walk rate (4.9 BB/9) and a massive increase in homers. A fluky 16.7 percent homer-to-flyball ratio undoubtedly impacted his 1.8 HR/9 rate, but Warren’s general problems with locating his pitches actually led to a greater percentage of pitches in the strike zone, particularly when behind in the count.
Torres, 19, is the most highly regarded prospect joining the Yankees’ ranks. One of the prizes of the Cubs’ pool-shattering international spending spree three summers ago, the shortstop entered the season as a consensus Top 50 prospect around the league and has only continued to boost his stock. Torres is hitting .275/.359/.433 with nine homers and 19 stolen bases in 409 plate appearances while playing against considerably older competition. ESPN’s Keith Law rated Torres 26th on his midseason list of the game’s top prospects, and Baseball America pegged him 27th. Law noted that Torres has put on weight and filled out a bit, making it less certain that he’ll stick at shortstop but adding to the power output he’s delivered in a pitcher-friendly home park as one of three teenagers receiving regular at-bats in the Carolina League this year. BA notes that he’s recovered from a dreadfully low start — indeed, he’s hitting .302/.379/.468 since May 1 — and has shown enough added pop to profile at second or third base even if he has to move off of shortstop.
The 21-year-old McKinney was a Top 100 prospect entering the season but has seen his stock dip a bit, part of which BA attributes to adding “some bad weight” and slowing down both in terms of foot speed and bat speed. In 349 plate appearances at the Double-A level this season, McKinney is hitting .252/.355/.322 with just one home run. However, he’s quite young for the level and is just a year removed from hitting .300/.371/.454 as a 20-year-old between Class-A Advanced and Double-A, so there’s certainly room for a rebound. And, as evidenced by McKinney’s 47 walks (13.5 percent) against 68 strikeouts (19.4 percent), he still possesses strong discipline at the plate that should play into his favor as he continues to develop. The Yankees will be the third organization for McKinney, who was selected 24th overall by the A’s in 2013 but traded to the Cubs alongside Addison Russell in the Jeff Samardzija/Jason Hammel blockbuster back in 2014.
As for Crawford, the 22-year-old was an 11th-round pick out of high school by the Cubs back in 2012 and is in his first season at Class-A Advanced. He’s hitting .255/.327/.386 with three homers and 22 steals in 28 tries through his first 370 trips to the plate. Crawford didn’t land on any top 30 lists for the Cubs, but BA’s J.J. Cooper tweets that as a toolsy center fielder with plus speed and plus defense, Crawford is the “perfect” fourth player/lottery ticket to add some further upside to the deal for the Yankees.
Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports was the first to report that the two were talking about a trade involving Chapman and Torres and also the first to say a deal was in place (via Twitter). Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported Warren’s inclusion (links to Twitter). Sahadev Sharma of TheAthletic.com first reported that McKinney was in the deal (also via Twitter). Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago reported that Crawford was the fourth player (Twitter link).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Mets Interested In Jonathan Lucroy, Offering Travis D’Arnaud In Return
The Mets are interested in Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy, and current Mets catcher Travis d’Arnaud seems to be part of any potential package the Amazins could send to Milwaukee, Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News reports. The Brewers rejected a straight one-for-one offer of Lucroy for d’Arnaud, so as Ackert notes, the Mets’ ability to stay competitive in the race for Lucroy’s services will hinge on the caliber of prospect New York is willing to surrender along with d’Arnaud. As of Sunday, no deal between the Mets and Brewers was imminent.
Lucroy has been speculatively linked to the Mets as a possible solution to their hitting woes, though the Mets were still thought to be looking at d’Arnaud as their catcher of the future. In my recent examination of Lucroy’s trade market, I also dismissed the Mets as a possible candidate mostly due to d’Arnaud’s presence but also due to a lack of minor league depth. While New York has some impressive prospects on hand (i.e. Dominic Smith, Amed Rosario, Gavin Cecchini, Brandon Nimmo), their system is rather thin overall.
For dealing d’Arnaud and years of a controllable top prospect, the Mets would land one of the top catchers in baseball in Lucroy. Not only has Lucroy strongly bounced back after an injury-plagued 2015 season, he has re-established himself as one of the game’s top bargains. Lucroy is in the final guaranteed year of a five-year, $11MM extension signed prior to his breakout 2012 season, and there is a team option on his services for only $5.25MM for 2017. With payroll limitations still a lingering concern for the Mets, they could be particularly eager to obtain a top-tier talent at a low price.
It wasn’t too long ago that d’Arnaud was himself a sought-after commodity, as he and Noah Syndergaard headlined the trade package sent by the Blue Jays to the Mets in the R.A. Dickey trade in December 2012. While d’Arnaud has looked good when healthy, he has been plagued by a wide array of injuries during his brief career, missing time due to varied injuries to his hand, foot, knee, back, elbow and (most recently) a rotator cuff strain that put him on the DL earlier this season. Perhaps most troubling of all, d’Arnaud has also suffered at least three known concussions. There has already been heavy speculation that d’Arnaud will have to be moved to first base for the sake of his health, so he doesn’t necessarily protect as a replacement for Lucroy behind the plate in Milwaukee.
Lucroy may not be the only Mets target on the Milwaukee roster, as the Amazins are known to be looking for relief help and have been linked to relievers Jeremy Jeffress and Will Smith. Ackert reports that the Brewers were one of many teams recently scouting the Mets’ lower-level minor league clubs. This is just my speculation, but New York may be more willing to part with a top prospect in the Smith/Rosario/Cecchini tier if both Lucroy and one of the relievers could be obtained in the same deal.
Astros Promote Alex Bregman
The Astros have announced the promotion of highly touted infield/outfield prospect Alex Bregman and the designation for assignment of infielder Danny Worth. Bregman will join the surging Astros on Monday for the start of their home series against the Yankees.
[RELATED: Updated Astros Depth Chart]
Bregman, whom Keith Law of ESPN (Insider required and recommended) ranks as the best prospect in baseball, has torn through minor league pitching since the Astros selected him second overall in last year’s draft. The 22-year-old ex-LSU standout has been especially impressive this season, having posted a .297/.415/.559 batting line with 14 home runs in 285 plate appearances in Double-A. The Astros’ decision to promote Bregman to Triple-A in late June didn’t slow down the right-handed hitter, who slashed an astounding .356/.397/.685 with six homers in 78 trips to the plate with Fresno. Between the two levels this season, Bregman has recorded more unintentional walks (47) than strikeouts (37), further demonstrating his offensive prowess. Law likens Bregman’s upside at the dish to that of Red Sox star second baseman Dustin Pedroia.
Baseball America rates Bregman as the game’s eighth-best prospect, meanwhile, and praised his “simple, level swing,” bat speed and patience after last season (subscription required and recommended). Moreover, BA lauded his base-running and defensive skills, though there are questions as to where he’ll line up with the Astros. Over the long haul, BA, Law and MLB.com (which has Bregman as the No. 18 overall prospect in the game) see him faring well at short. That would require Houston to move Carlos Correa elsewhere, however (likely third base); notably, MVP candidate Jose Altuve mans second base.
In the near term, the Astros could send Bregman to left field, where they’ve had him spend time in the minors, or third. However, big-money free agent signing Yulieski Gurriel‘s forthcoming debut will only complicate things further. That isn’t a negative for the red-hot Astros, though, who have climbed to a season-best 10 games over .500 since a dismal start and are within 2 1/2 games of AL West-leading Texas and a half-game of the second Wild Card spot.
Wherever the Astros play Bregman, it’s fair to assume he’s in the majors for good. With that being the case, he’ll come up short of Super Two status in the likely event he remains with the Astros through the end of the season. Bregman can accrue up to 70 days of service time in the majors this year, meaning he won’t be eligible for arbitration until after 2019 and will stay under club control through the 2022 campaign.
Worth, 30, joined the Astros on a minor league deal over the winter and went on to collect 40 plate appearances with them this year, hitting a meager .179/.200/.231. The longtime member of the Tigers organization owns a .224/.282/.288 line in 332 career PAs.
Top 50 Trade Candidates
We waited to update MLBTR’s top trade candidate series for a bit, in recognition of the All-Star break lull. But things are starting to pick up quite a bit, and there’s plenty of change afoot as the list doubles in size from the most recent iteration. Drew Pomeranz, who sat in 13th position in our last list, was shipped in the biggest mid-season deal thus far. There are several other notable factors influencing the ranking you’ll see below; in particular, we’re now considering teams like the Yankees, White Sox, Royals, and Mariners as plausible sellers with the deadline nearing. None are fully committed in either direction as of yet, but there’s less time now for a dramatic change of fortune before August 1st.
Your weekly reminder: we’re not just ranking players by skill alone; we’re looking at overall asset value and trade likelihood. To assess trade value, we’re starting with overall on-field ability — with a premium on the capacity to make an impact in the current season — and then adjusting for contract and market factors. With contenders’ needs in relatively sharp focus, limitations such as future contract status, age, and niche role (platoon bats, relief-only pitchers) tend to have less of a drag on value — though obviously they still matter quite a bit. With regard to the likelihood of a swap, the focus is on potential selling teams’ motivation to deal, with contract status, near and long-term roster fit, and overall competitiveness all weighing heavily. Some teams simply aren’t in a position at present where it makes sense to include their top potential trade chips, but that will evolve over the coming weeks.
On to the ranking:
1. Aroldis Chapman, RP, Yankees — Though the Yanks are still in reasonable range for contention, word is that they’re readying to deal Chapman. The Cuban Missile promises to be a powerful weapon for whoever acquires him, with many of the best teams in baseball lining up for that chance — reportedly including the Indians, Cubs, Nationals, Dodgers, and Giants.
2. Jonathan Lucroy, C, Brewers — The Indians are said to have opened talks on Lucroy after losing Yan Gomes and receiving bad news on Michael Brantley‘s health, and the Rangers are also seemingly kicking around the idea of a move. Though it’s not certain he’ll be dealt, Lucroy still has the best blend of trade likelihood and value — he’s a top player at a premium defensive position who is playing on a super-cheap deal with control remaining.
3. Josh Reddick, OF, Athletics — Extension talks seem to be going nowhere, so it’s probably time for the veteran to be shipped out of Oakland. Having resumed his solid form at the plate since returning from the DL, he’s the best all-around rental outfielder available. The Cubs are among the teams said to be looking at Reddick.
4. Jay Bruce, OF, Reds — Bruce’s previous placement at the top of this list was driven largely by the fact that he was so obviously available. With the picture now more clear in other areas, and Bruce cooling off of late, he’s sliding a bit.
5. Andrew Cashner, SP, Padres — It seems all but certain that Cashner will be traded; indeed, there was buzz that he’d be gone before his last start. After turning in two quality outings, rivals organizations might be more willing to take a chance on the up-and-down righty.
6. Rich Hill, SP, Athletics — It’s hard to place Hill, who has been unbelievable all year but has dealt with two seemingly minor but nagging injuries. The most recent one is a blister that hasn’t healed enough to allow him to get back in the rotation. Hill can still be traded even if he isn’t able to make it back before the deadline, but that possibility only makes his already hard-to-gauge value all the more uncertain.
7. Carlos Beltran, OF, Yankees — Beltran is another Yankee who’s tough to place, albeit for slightly different reasons. We haven’t heard a ton of chatter on the veteran, who is hitting at near-peak rates at 39 years of age. He’s a pure rental who is eligible for free agency this winter.
8. Steve Pearce, IF/OF, Rays — Pearce is matching his 2014 breakout with a .322/.393/.552 slash. He has also been hurt, which has been an issue in the past, but with a meager $4.75MM salary for the season he’d be quite an affordable addition. He isn’t a great defender, but Pearce has proven capable of playing first, second, and the corner outfield, so he could provide plenty of plate appearances to the right organization.
9. Jake Odorizzi, SP, Rays — Odorizzi has been far from dominant — he owns a 4.39 ERA in 110 2/3 innings — but he’s steady, young, cheap, and controlled for three more seasons. He still seems the most likely Rays pitcher to change hands.
10. Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Phillies — It has been a very strong campaign for the 29-year-old, who carries a 3.84 ERA with 8.0 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9 over 119 2/3 frames. It’s exactly what the Phils were hoping for when they added him over the winter, as he has been a nice stabilizing force and now looks like a solid trade piece in a market that doesn’t feature many useful rental starters.
11. Ervin Santana, SP, Twins — Teams prioritizing steadiness and durability will likely zero in on Santana, who’s a good bet to provide some reliable innings down the stretch and over the rest of his contract.
12. Matt Moore, SP, Rays — If, instead, you’d rather roll the dice on upside, then perhaps Moore is your guy. His contract is no longer quite as enticing as it once was, particularly since he can’t seem to turn the corner on the hill, but if he can find his form he’d once again be a premium asset.
13. Yunel Escobar, INF, Angels — It’s hard to discount the run he’s been on the last two years too much, but clubs will surely be wary of the fact that he’s doing it with a .350-ish BABIP. Without much pop in the bat, and a middling glove, there are limits to his value.
14. Danny Valencia, INF, Athletics — Valencia has fallen back at the plate and recently was moved off his regular third base gig. That seems to suggest that he’s not a major part of Oakland’s plans for 2017, but it also doesn’t necessarily do much for his trade value.
15. Melvin Upton Jr., OF, Padres — Trade chatter is picking up quite a bit on the resurgent Padres outfielder. His big contract will factor heavily in the market, as the Ubaldo Jimenez rumors would suggest, but he looks to be quite a useful addition for a contender in need of a fill-in starter or oft-used fourth outfielder.
16. Peter Bourjos, OF, Phillies — This feels a bit high for a player who is hitting quite well now, but hasn’t ever been a consistently useful offensive player. But that’s not the real reason for it. Instead, with Bourjos showing some life at the plate, he looks like an obvious player to change hands. His speed and defense make him a nice bench piece down the stretch, and with free agency coming, the Phils don’t have much reason not to cash him in.
17-19. Outfielders Ryan Braun (Brewers), Carlos Gonzalez & Charlie Blackmon (Rockies) — This trio is tough to gauge. You could argue that the Brewers ought to sell Braun now, but is the market really willing? And is Rockies owner Dick Monfort ready to pack in not only on 2016, but also ding the team’s near-future outlook by dealing away a high-quality outfielder?
20-21. Shortstops Eduardo Nunez (Twins) & Zack Cozart (Reds) — These are the two best middle infielders on the market — Cozart is an outstanding true shortstop, while Nunez has experience all over — but we’re still not seeing clear demand crystallize.
22-23. Relievers Jeremy Jeffress & Will Smith, Brewers — Milwaukee’s quality and controllable relievers could be traded or not, but odds are at least one will change hands as teams that miss out on bigger targets go looking for a backup plan.
24-26. Starters Jorge De La Rosa (Rockies), Ivan Nova (Yankees) & Jon Niese (Pirates) — There’s always demand for innings on the trade market, and these three starters bring that along with at least some hope for more.
Keep reading for the rest of the list and other names that were considered …
Diamondbacks To Promote Braden Shipley
The Diamondbacks are calling up well-regarded pitching prospect Braden Shipley from Triple-A Reno to start Monday against Milwaukee, according to ESPN.com.
Shipley, 24, has been a member of the Arizona organization since it selected him 15th overall in the 2013 amateur draft. Baseball America ranked the right-hander as the 26th-best prospect in baseball after the 2014 campaign, but he fell to 77th following last season. BA noted then (subscription required and recommended) that Shipley struggled with mechanics and consistency issues with his breaking ball in the first half of 2015 with Double-A Mobile. But Shipley still produced quality results last season, especially in the second half, and BA lauded his ability to maintain his arm speed and hit 93 to 96 mph on the radar gun with his fastball. Shipley also possesses a plus, hard-to-identify curveball that sits around 84 mph and a solid changeup that ranges from 83 to 85 mph. Additionally, his athleticism and background as a shortstop – where he played early on at the University of Nevada before turning his focus to pitching – make him a formidable fielder. With all of that considered, at the end of last season, BA regarded Shipley as a potential No. 3 starter in the majors. Given that he has since risen in the outlet’s rankings, the same likely holds true now. MLB.com is also bullish on Shipley, placing him 58th in its prospect rankings and offering a scouting report similar to BA’s.
In the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League this season, Shipley has recorded a 3.70 ERA, 5.81 K/9 and 1.66 BB/9 over 119 1/3 innings. He’ll hope to match or better those numbers with last-place Arizona, whose rotation has been among the majors’ worst this year. Two of their starters, ace Zack Greinke and Rubby De La Rosa, have been on the disabled list for extended periods of time. Meanwhile, high-profile offseason pickup Shelby Miller is in Reno after performing horribly during the first few months of the season and might not last much longer with the organization.
If Shipley takes advantage of his opportunity and stays in the majors for the rest of the year, he’ll fall short of Super Two status. The maximum 2016 service time Shipley can accrue at this point is 70 days. He’ll be eligible for arbitration after the 2019 campaign and under team control through 2022 if he remains in Arizona for the remainder of the season.