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Chris Davis Reportedly Seeking Eight Years, $200MM

By Steve Adams | December 9, 2015 at 7:34pm CDT

The Orioles are said to have extended a seven-year offer worth roughly $150MM to bring free-agent first baseman Chris Davis back to Baltimore, but Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports that Davis is “believed to be seeking” an eight-year pact that will guarantee him $200MM through what would be his age-37 season.

Heyman reports that the Orioles’ offer to Davis now exceeds $150MM over a seven-year term, although MLB.com’s Britt Ghiroli tweets some dissenting information, stating that the Orioles have not upped their offer. Baltimore has met with the representatives for Justin Upton and also are interested in Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez and free-agent Pedro Alvarez as the team lines up potential contingency plans.

A $200MM guarantee for Davis may seem difficult to fathom, and may not prove achievable, but it’s notable that Boras feels comfortable seeking it — particularly with such a significant chunk of change already on the table. We’ve yet to hear of much concrete interest from other teams around the league, but surely Davis has caught the attention of several other organizations.

Scott Boras On Span, Wieters, Kennedy, Chen

By Zachary Links | December 9, 2015 at 7:12pm CDT

In what has become an annual tradition at the Winter Meetings, agent Scott Boras held court for all of the reporters in attendance. MLB Trade Rumors was on hand for the scrum and we’ve got a few of the highlights below:

One reporter asked if Boras would be willing to consider a one-year deal for free agent outfielder Denard Span. Boras flatly rejected that notion and said that he will be gunning for a multi-year contract. Marc Carig of Newsday (via Twitter) hears from some in the industry that feel Span may have to settle for a one-year deal with incentives due to health concerns.
Boras was asked about the decision for Matt Wieters to accept the qualifying offer from the Orioles and he explained that the catcher’s free agent market would have been bogged down too much by the draft pick forfeiture had he tried it. When asked by MLBTR why he and Ian Kennedy opted to reject the QO, Boras quipped, “Well, someone told me this pitching market was going to be advanced. I think it was pretty obvious to us at the time that the decision was going to be what it is.”
I asked Boras about the market for starter Wei-Yin Chen, who stands as one of the strongest remaining starters available. Boras characterized his market as “great” and made a fun, agent-slanted case for his client. “The last two years his ERA is lower against AL East teams than David Price, so that tells you how good a pitcher he is,” Boras said.
I also asked Boras about reliever Greg Holland and his unique situation in free agency. Boras confirmed the widely expected notion that Holland will seek out a two-year deal and he says that “a number” of teams with interest in that type of deal have spoken to him about such a pact. Boras also said that Holland could return to action in time for the 2016 postseason. From the outside, one has to wonder if Holland will be able to rebound that quickly after undergoing Tommy John surgery in late September.

Nationals’ Interest In Mike Leake Cooling Off

By Jeff Todd | December 9, 2015 at 6:44pm CDT

6:44pm: The Nationals’ interest in Leake has cooled off, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter). Washington is now pursuing other pitchers, Rosenthal adds, and a deal with Leake is considered to be unlikely.

3:17pm: Rizzo confirmed that the club had made an offer to Leake, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports (Twitter links), though he said that was true of many other players and added that the club hasn’t been very active on the market for starters.

Of course, even as Rizzo spoke, Buster Olney of ESPN.com was reporting on Twitter that the Nats “have made progress” towards signing Leake.

1:16pm: Washington has extended Leake an offer, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports on Twitter. He adds that the team is “pushing” to get a deal done, reflecting the earlier report and suggesting that there’s serious interest from the Nats.

10:11am: The Nationals are among several teams “making [a] push” for free agent righty Mike Leake, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. We’ve heard Leake tied to numerous other organizations in recent weeks, including teams such as the Giants and Cardinals.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams profiled Leake recently, explaining that his market appeal lies in a combination of age, health, the lack of a qualifying offer, and solid production. Both Adams and MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes have predicted five-year, $80MM contract for Leake, placing him among the 15 or so free agents with the greatest expected earning power.

Washington represents a surprising addition to the market for Leake. The team was a notable pursuer of Ben Zobrist and has been busy in the relief market, but hasn’t been connected with any starting pitchers despite losing Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister to free agency.

That’s because the Nats already have a solid rotation lined up for 2016. Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Gio Gonzalez would represent the clear top three, with Tanner Roark and Joe Ross looking like a solid 4-5 pairing and youngster like A.J. Cole and Lucas Giolito knocking on the door.

Of course, as I explained in the Nationals’ offseason outlook, there are numerous possibilities for creative action this winter for Rizzo and co. It’s certainly possible to imagine that a Leake signing could work in concert with some other move involving one of the team’s current starters. Or, bumping other arms into the bullpen could function to bolster a relief corps in need of depth.

Astros Close To Acquiring Ken Giles

By Steve Adams | December 9, 2015 at 6:19pm CDT

6:19pm: A source tells Salisbury that a trade sending Giles to Houston is “close” but not done yet (Twitter link).

5:15pm: Major League lefty Brett Oberholtzer, whom the Astros have reportedly been shopping, is also being discussed in talks, tweets Salisbury.

4:16pm: Stark reports that talks currently center around well-regarded right-hander Vincent Velasquez and two other prospects (Twitter link).

2:57pm: Salisbury tweets that the Phillies have pushed back their media session for the day, which could be in relation to talks centering around Giles. ESPN’s Jayson Stark tweets that Lance McCullers won’t be included in a deal for Giles, as the Astros are set on keeping him.

2:28pm: Trade talks between the Astros and Phillies centering around brilliant young closer Ken Giles are “heating up,” reports CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury (Twitter link). Houston has long been linked to top-flight relief arms, and Giles would not only give the club a dominant arm to slot into the ninth inning but also a controllable option for that role, as he’s not eligible for free agency until after the 2020 season.

Giles, who turned 25 in late September, took over as closer in Philadelphia following the trade of Jonathan Papelbon and continued to display the dominance he’s exhibited since breaking into the Majors upon being moved to a more prominent role. In 115 2/3 career innings, the former seventh-round pick has a masterful 1.56 ERA with 11.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 44.6 percent ground-ball rate. Giles’ fastball has averaged just a shade under 97 mph in the Majors (96.8), so he’d satisfy Houston GM previously stated interest in adding a hard-throwing arm that the back end of the Astros’ bullpen presently lacks.

The asking price on Giles, one would imagine, is exceptionally high. The Red Sox paid the substantial price of Manuel Margot, Javier Guerra, Carlos Asuaje and Logan Allen for three years of Craig Kimbrel. While Giles doesn’t have Kimbrel’s lengthy track record of dominance in the Majors, he’s delivered comparable results and comes with two more years of control than did Kimbrel, two of which figure to be near the league-minimum in terms of salary. Giles should narrowly fall shy of Super Two status (he currently has one year, 113 days of Major League service time) and won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2017 season.

Tigers Acquire Justin Wilson

By Steve Adams | December 9, 2015 at 5:55pm CDT

The Tigers and Yankees have announced a trade that will send left-handed setup man Justin Wilson to Detroit in exchange for right-handed pitching prospects Luis Cessa and Chad Green.

In Wilson, the Tigers will receive the lefty setup man they’ve been seeking and do so at what should be an affordable rate. Wilson is controllable for three seasons via the arbitration process and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $1.3MM next season.

The Yankees acquired Wilson, now 28, from the Pirates last winter in the trade that sent catcher Francisco Cervelli to the Pirates. His first season in New York was largely successful, as he worked to a 3.10 ERA with 9.7 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 and a 43.8 percent ground-ball rate. Wilson was similarly effective against both right- and left-handed batters (.593 OPS and .621 OPS, respectively). It’s a bit odd to see Wilson struggle more against lefties than righties, but he had some control issues when facing same-handed hitters in 2015 (though he hasn’t previously struggled in that regard versus left-handers).

Wilson will join newly acquired closer Francisco Rodriguez and newly signed setup man mark Lowe in the back of a remade Tigers bullpen. He should be the top left-handed setup man for manager Brad Ausmus, while internal candidates like Kyle Ryan, Blaine Hardy and Kyle Lobstein represent options to add a second lefty into the mix.

For the Yankees, the trade means that lefties Chasen Shreve and Jacob Lindgren will be relied upon as the primary lefties in manager Joe Girardi’s bullpen (barring an outside acquisition, of course). New York will pick up the Tigers’ No. 6 and No. 19 prospects, respectively, in Cessa and Green, according to MLB.com’s end-of-season rankings.

If Cessa’s name sounds familiar, it’s because this is the second trade in which he’s been involved in the past six months, although the first was considerably more high profile. Cessa went to Detroit alongside fellow righty Michael Fulmer in July’s Yoenis Cespedes swap with the Mets. The 23-year-old Cessa struggled greatly in his first exposure to Triple-A this season, recording a 6.97 ERA in 64 innings of work. However, he also thrived at the Double-A level, where he logged a 2.91 ERA with a 61-to-17 K/BB ratio in 77 1/3 innings prior to his Triple-A promotion. MLB.com notes that Cessa has a fastball in the 93-95 mph range as well as a slurvy-but-improving breaking pitch and the “makings of a Major League changeup.” He profiles as a back-of-the-rotation starter.

Green, 24, sits 90 to 94 with his own heater, which has heavy sink and which he commands well. However, MLB.com notes that he lacks plus secondary offerings, so he’s a bit of a project. Green spent the entirety of the 2015 season pitching in the rotation for Detroit’s Double-A affiliate, where he recorded a 3.93 ERA with 8.3 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9. Both players picked up in the deal would seem to be on track to pitch in Triple-A early next year, meaning it wouldn’t be a surprise if either arm surfaced in the Majors at some point in 2016.

Jennifer Hammond of FOX Sports Detroit first reported the trade was in place (Twitter link) and added the specifics (link) on the return shortly thereafter.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

White Sox, A’s “Hit Snag” In Brett Lawrie Trade Talks

By Steve Adams | December 9, 2015 at 5:23pm CDT

5:23pm: The ChiSox and A’s have “hit a snag” in trade talks surrounding Lawrie, reports Joe Stiglich of CSN Bay Area. While a deal could eventually be worked out, the team wasn’t able to agree on the prospect package that would return to Oakland.

WEDNESDAY, 10:18am: It seems that the White Sox aren’t yet ready to strike an agreement, Slusser tweets, but she adds that the sides are still working.

1:26am: The trade appears to be near to completion, and the Athletics seem likely to receive two minor leaguers, although the two teams have not yet agreed on which ones, Slusser writes.

TUESDAY: The White Sox and Athletics are having serious trade discussions focusing on infielder Brett Lawrie, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (on Twitter). Slusser recently reported that Lawrie was likely to be traded following Oakland’s acquisition of Jed Lowrie from Houston, and the White Sox have needs at both second base and third base — each positions at which Lawrie has experience.

Lawrie, 26 in January, batted .260/.299/.407 with 16 homers and five steals in a career-high 602 plate appearances/149 games for the A’s last season after coming over from the Blue Jays in the Josh Donaldson blockbuster. He’d most likely give the White Sox a much-needed everyday option at third base, where the upper levels of the minor leagues are thin after former top prospect Matt Davidson endured a dismal campaign for the second consecutive season (.203/.293/.375).

Chicago would be dealing for two years of Lawrie, who projects to make $3.9MM next year (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) in his second trip through the arbitration process as a Super Two player. From a defensive standpoint, Lawrie graded out excellently at third base early in his career but has seen metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating sour on his skills over the past three seasons. Then again, he’s also dealt with myriad injuries, missing significant time with a pair of oblique injuries, two broken fingers and an ankle sprain, among other, more minor maladies.

If completed, this would mark the second straight season in which A’s president Billy Beane and White Sox GM Rick Hahn have brokered a notable trade at the Winter Meetings, as the Jeff Samardzija trade that sent Marcus Semien and three others to Oakland was completed one year ago at this time.

Pirates, Mets Swap Neil Walker, Jon Niese

By Jeff Todd | December 9, 2015 at 5:18pm CDT

5:18pm: The Mets have formally announced the trade, which is indeed a one-for-one swap of the two veteran players.

3:31pm: The Mets have reached agreement on a deal for Pirates second baseman Neil Walker, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports on Twitter. It is pending a review of medicals and “small other matters,” he adds. Lefty Jon Niese is heading to Pittsburgh in the deal, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney tweets.

Both players have long been said to be available. The move allows the teams to swap similarly-priced assets to fill needs.

In Walker, the Mets will add a thirty-year-old switch-hitter who does much of what the team hoped to find in Ben Zobrist. Better still, Walker is much younger and will not require a commitment beyond the coming season. His 2016 salary is not yet determined, but MLBTR projects that he’ll earn $10.7MM via arbitration.

Though Walker did not quite live up to his fairly high standards last year, he was nevertheless quite productive at the plate. All said, he owns a .272/.338/.431 lifetime bating line, compiled in nearly 3,500 plate appearances, and has averaged about 16 long balls a year since he became a regular. He’s rarely strayed too far above or below that mark, which is quite productive for a middle infielder.

Walker profiles more as an average to below-average defender, but his bat has been good enough to make up the difference. In the aggregate, he’s something like a 2.5 to 3.5 WAR player, making him quite a useful piece. It is worth noting, however, that Walker’s traditionally poor performance against left-handed pitching got even worse last year, making him a candidate for part-time platoon support.

Niese, meanwhile, will presumably take up a rotation spot for the Bucs. He’s owed $9MM for the coming season and can be controlled via two options priced at $10MM and $11MM, each of which include $500K buyouts.

The 29-year-old southpaw was not at his best in 2015, as he worked to a 4.13 ERA in 176 2/3 innings. But he produced at quite a strong level for the three preceding seasons, with peripherals largely supporting his results. He produced a 3.49 ERA, with 6.9 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 to go with a 49.0% groundball rate, in 521 innings over 2012-14. ERA estimators saw a bit of luck baked in, but he still ended the span with a 3.69 FIP and xFIP to go with a 3.85 SIERA mark.

Pittsburgh has, of course, had plenty of success in getting excellent value out of veteran rotation pieces. It’s not fair to call Niese a bounce-back type of asset, since he was still plenty serviceable last year, but he represents a buy-low option after his sub-par 2015. It’s worth bearing in mind, too, that Pittsburgh will have the potential for some down-the-line upside, as Niese’s options could look like solid pick-ups if he can return to his prior form.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Padres Dangling Hunter Renfroe, Travis Jankowski, Starters

By Jeff Todd | December 9, 2015 at 3:17pm CDT

The Padres are shopping young outfielders Hunter Renfroe and Travis Jankowski in trade talks, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. San Diego also continues to discuss Tyson Ross, James Shields, and Andrew Cashner in trades, with Cashner being “particularly pushed” by the club.

It is not clear from the report what San Diego is looking to do with its two outfield prospects, both of whom rate among the better young assets in the system. Lin notes that the club could just be “gauging interest,” but the addition of Jon Jay did reduce the immediate need for outfield help and the club could look to continue the asset-shifting moves it’s made already this winter.

Jankowski reached the majors last year, struggling in limited exposure, but put up a strong .335/.413/.425 batting line in the upper minors. And the 23-year-old Renfroe exploded upon reaching Triple-A late in the year, ending the season with a .272/.321/.462 slash and twenty home runs.

Of course, we’ve long heard talk that the Padres could consider a move involving their starters, but Shields has drawn more recent attention. Of course, with A.J. Preller at the helm, it has proven nearly impossible to predict what direction the organization will take.

Cubs Sign John Lackey

By charliewilmoth | December 9, 2015 at 3:15pm CDT

DECEMBER 9: Lackey gets a full no-trade clause, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports on Twitter. Brett Taylor of Baseball Prospectus had tweeted that the deal included at least some such protection.

DECEMBER 8: Chicago has announced the signing.

DECEMBER 4: The Cubs have reached agreement with righty John Lackey on a two-year deal worth $32MM, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter links). Lackey will receive $16MM in each of the next two seasons, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times tweets. Yahoo! Sports’ Tim Brown had reported earlier today that the Cubs were intensely interested in Lackey and that the two sides were discussing possibilities for two- and three-year deals. Lackey is represented by Steve Hilliard of Hilliard Sports Management.

Lackey will be a mid-rotation starter in Chicago, pitching behind Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester (a friend from his days with the Red Sox). He had a terrific season with the Cubs’ division rivals in St. Louis in 2015, throwing 218 innings and posting a 2.77 ERA, 7.2 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9. He pitched for the league minimum last season due to a clause in the contract he initially signed with the Sox (although the Cardinals did add $2MM in bonuses); it appears his new deal will pay him closer to the $15MM-plus he received in the other years of that contract.

The 37-year-old Lackey is no spring chicken, so it’s no surprise that the Cubs aren’t making a lengthy commitment. After having Tommy John surgery and missing the 2012 season, though, Lackey has been very durable, making a total of 93 starts and pitching over 600 innings in the three years since. His velocity and peripheral numbers have also remained fairly constant in that time frame. That’s not to say, however, that he’s likely to post another 2.77 ERA in Chicago next season — like many Cardinals pitchers last season, his numbers with runners in scoring position were outstanding (opposing batters hit .200/.296/.273 against him). Lackey seems unlikely to sustain those numbers, although he would still be very productive even if he gained half a run or so in ERA.

The Cubs had previously been connected to starting pitchers like Jeff Samardzija (via free agency) and Shelby Miller (via the trade market). They also met with David Price before Price agreed to terms with the Red Sox. Obviously, Lackey costs significantly less than Price did or Samardzija seems likely to, and will not cost the Cubs any prospects other than a draft pick. (Lackey rejected a qualifying offer from the Cardinals, so the Cubs will lose their first-round pick in the 2016, 28th overall. The Cardinals will gain a pick at the end of the first round.) With Lackey in the fold, the Cubs’ rotation lines up as Arrieta, Lester, Lackey, Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Athletics To Sign John Axford

By Jeff Todd | December 9, 2015 at 12:58pm CDT

The Athletics have struck a deal with free agent reliever John Axford, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports on Twitter. He’ll join Oakland so long as he passes a physical, says Slusser, who had reported that the deal was close last night.

Oakland will promise Axford $10MM over two years, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports on Twitter. The veteran righty will also receive an incentive package of up to $4MM based on games finished.

Axford was cut loose by the Rockies, who decided his projected $6.5MM arbitration salary was too rich. But the soon-to-be 33-year-old veteran had a strong year overall in Colorado, in spite of an unexciting 4.20 ERA.

That earned run mark was obviously inflated by pitching at Coors Field, and advanced metrics viewed Axford as a solid contributor over his 55 2/3 innings. He posted a 3.57 FIP, 3.74 xFIP, and 3.66 SIERA after compiling 10.0 K/9 against 5.2 BB/9 and a career-best 56.1% groundball rate.

As those numbers would suggest, Axford still has rather pronounced struggles limiting the free passes. But he has managed to be effective in spite of that. And he has retained his huge fastball as he’s aged, checking in with a 95.9 mph average heater last year.

For the A’s, Axford represents one of several recent bullpen additions as the organization’s relief corps makeover continues. Oakland has already signed Ryan Madson, dealt for Liam Hendriks and Marc Rzepczynski, and shipped away Evan Scribner.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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