David Ortiz To Retire After 2016 Season
TODAY: Ortiz announced via Twitter that he’ll call it quits after the coming year. “Life is based on different chapters,” said Ortiz, “and I think I am ready to experience the next one in my life.”
YESTERDAY: Red Sox slugger David Ortiz plans to retire at the end of the 2016 campaign, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. That’s not exactly shocking news, as Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe notes on Twitter that Ortiz hinted at just that possibility over the course of the 2015 season.
Boston owes Ortiz $16MM for the coming season after he maxed out his vesting option escalators, but that’s a small price to pay for his recent levels of production. His deal includes another vesting/club option with a floating value for the 2017 season, but it appears that it won’t have any practical importance.
Ortiz turns 40 tomorrow, but has shown no signs of slowing at the plate. Despite his advanced age, he slashed an outstanding .273/.360/.553 last season and swatted 37 home runs in his 614 plate appearances. The Dominican native also became the most recent MLB player to enter the 500 home run club.
The coming season will be the twentieth in which Ortiz has seen action at the major league level. He spent six seasons with the Twins, putting up solid offensive numbers, but was released by the organization after a 2002 that was his best in Minnesota.
His career took off once he signed with the Red Sox. Ortiz began putting up huge numbers as soon as he came to Fenway, reeling off a five-year run over which he carried a .302/.402/.612 batting line and landed in the top 5 in AL MVP voting after every one of those seasons (though he never won the award).
It seemed like Ortiz was beginning his decline phase thereafter, as his average, OBP, and slugging percentage all dropped to the lowest levels of his Red Sox career in 2009. That proved, instead, to be little more than a blip, as his 149 OPS+ over the six seasons since amply attests.
There’s no question that Ortiz will go down as an important member of the Red Sox pantheon. He was, of course, a key member of the organization’s 2004, 2007, and 2013 championship clubs. If anything, he’s been even better in the post-season — especially the World Series, where he owns an unfathomable .455/.576/.795 batting line over 59 total plate appearances.
Really, the only debate at this point is whether Ortiz deserves a place in the Hall of Fame. If you focus only on his offensive numbers, that is rather an easy sell. But there are other considerations that complicate things. From an on-field perspective, Ortiz has almost exclusively been a DH, which obviously limits his overall value. And doubt remains about his involvement with performance-enhancing drugs, as he was reportedly among the players who tested positive for a later-banned substance back in 2003.
There’s plenty of time to debate Ortiz’s legacy and case for Cooperstown over the years to come. For now, we’ll look forward to one last season of admiring that swing, with its high, one-handed finish, and the towering drives that result.
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Athletics To Sign Rich Hill
The Athletics have agreed to terms with free agent left-hander Rich Hill, reports Robert Murray of Baseball Essential. The deal is pending a physical. Yahoo’s Jeff Passan tweets that it’s a one-year deal with a $6MM guarantee.
Yesterday, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reported that Hill was likely to sign a contract this week. Earlier tonight, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo listed the A’s as one of the teams in the mix for hill, noting that one official involved in the bidding considered Oakland one of the favorites (links to Twitter). Passan notes (Twitter link) that Hill turned down a more lucrative offer from another club due to the promise of a spot in the club’s rotation.
Few would’ve believed prior to — or even 75 percent of the way through — the 2015 season that a payday like this was in the cards for Hill, who at 35 years of age had spent the past several seasons bouncing around the league as a lefty reliever. Hill’s claim to fame dated all the way back to 2007, when he punched out 183 batters in 195 innings of 3.92 ERA ball for the Cubs as a 27-year-old. Hill didn’t replicate that success in 2008, though, and injuries and poor performance limited his role around the league for the next eight seasons.
Released from the Nationals’ Triple-A club this summer, Hill latched on with the Red Sox — the same organization with which he spent the 2010-12 seasons. Despite three years in the organization, Hill logged just 31 2/3 big league innings in that stretch, but a strong season at Triple-A led the 2015 Sox to give him a few starts at season’s end, and Hill capitalized in more emphatic fashion than most could’ve imagined.
In 29 innings (four starts) with the Sox, Hill allowed a grand total of five earned runs, striking out 36 batters against just five walks to complement a 48.4 percent ground-ball rate. Hill ditched his two-seam fastball and reduced the usage of his four-seamer in 2015 as well, trading in some of his 90 mph for a dramatic increase in curveballs. The results were outstanding, and the endgame will be a guaranteed payday that is six times greater than Hill’s previous career-high single-season salary of $1MM.
Hill joins a rotation picture led by ace Sonny Gray but also featuring veteran righty Jesse Chavez and a slew of younger arms including Jesse Hahn, Chris Bassitt, Kendall Graveman, Sean Nolin and Aaron Brooks. Former mainstays Jarrod Parker and A.J. Griffin will hope to return to the fold after missing each of the past two seasons due to arm surgery, and lefty Drew Pomeranz is also an option for Oakland manager Bob Melvin (though he had greater success working out of the bullpen).
For the Athletics, it’s a risk to give $6MM to a pitcher with such a limited track record and a wide-ranging history of injuries, but the team has quite a bit of pitching depth and can reasonably absorb the blow if Hill misses a significant portion of the season on the disabled list. And, if Hill is able to deliver even a handful of starts resembling his September work in 2015, he could turn out to be one of the biggest free-agent bargains of the offseason.
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Giants Sign Brandon Crawford To Six-Year Extension
6:11pm: Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News reports the breakdown of Crawford’s contract (via Twitter). He’ll receive a $1.2MM signing bonus $5.8MM in 2016 and $8MM in 2017 before earning $15MM per season from 2018 through 2021 — his would-be free-agent years.
4:56pm: The Giants announced that they’ve signed shortstop Brandon Crawford to a six-year contract extension. The new deal will buy out Crawford’s final two arbitration seasons and four free-agent years, keeping him in San Francisco through 2021 — his age-34 season. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that the Wasserman Media Group client will receive $75MM and a full no-trade clause in the deal.
Crawford, 29 in January, was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to receive $5.7MM this offseason in what would’ve been his second time through the arbitration process. If we assume something in the range of $8MM for his final arbitration salary, the Giants are buying out four free-agent seasons at a total of about $61-62MM — about $15.5MM annually.
In locking up Crawford, the Giants will secure one of the game’s premier shortstop defenders as he comes off an offensive breakout. Dating back to 2012, Crawford has tallied 42 Defensive Runs Saved — 19th in the Majors of any player at any position in that time. While he’s long been known more for his glove than his bat, Crawford’s isolated power (slugging minus batting average) has increased in each season of his Major League career, beginning at .092 in 2011 and topping out at this season’s hefty .205. Crawford slugged a career-best 21 homers in his age-28 season and tallied an excellent .256/.321/.462 batting line to complement his outstanding defense. Fangraphs valued his contributions at 4.7 wins above replacement, and Baseball-Reference weighed in at 5.6 WAR.
The Giants will hope that Crawford’s power outburst can be sustained, if not built upon, but it should be noted that Crawford doesn’t need to be a 20-homer bat at shortstop to justify the type of money committed to him in this deal. The average shortstop has been about 13 to 14 percent worse than the league-average hitter over the past four seasons, and Crawford’s bat exceeded those levels each year dating back to 2013 (when adjusting for his cavernous home park). Simply delivering better-than-average offense, relative to his positional peers, and continuing to turn in sterling defensive work should be enough for Crawford to justify, if not exceed the value of his new contract.
While Crawford, like any player who signs an extension of this nature, could have potentially earned more money by going year to year through arbitration and hitting the open market at age 30 in search of a five- or six-year deal through his age-36 campaign, he now has the security of knowing that he’ll remain with the only organization he’s ever known for the vast majority of his career. That carries plenty of weight for a player, especially one who was born and raised within about 45 miles of AT&T Park.
As for the Giants, they’ve undoubtedly done their homework in looking ahead at the players who joined Crawford in his service time bracket (between four and five years). Crawford would’ve easily led the shortstop class in free agency that season, as he’d be joined by the likes of Ruben Tejada, Danny Espinosa, Eduardo Nunez and Alexi Amarista. The Giants, with little in the way of big-league ready shortstops in the upper levels of their minor league system — most scouts feel that Christian Arroyo will need to move to third base, while Lucius Fox and Jalen Miller are probably at least four years away — have proactively addressed that need and locked down a fan favorite in the process.
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Angels Sign Cliff Pennington To Two-Year Deal
The Angels announced today that they’ve signed infielder Cliff Pennington to a two-year contract. Pennington, a client of Sosnick, Cobbe and Karon, will receive $1.5MM in 2016 and $2.25MM in 2017 for a $3.75MM guarantee, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports (via Twitter). Pennington can also earn up to $750K per season based on plate appearances, according to MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez (Twitter link).
Pennington, 31, split the 2015 season between the D-Backs and Blue Jays, batting a combined .210/.298/.281 in what was the worst offensive season of his eight-year Major League career. However, Pennington entered the 2015 season with a lifetime .248/.315/.350 batting line, giving hope that he can rebound to an extent at the plate while continuing to delivery sound defensive value by way of run prevention and positional versatility.
Pennington can competently play second base, shortstop and third base, grading out as an average or better defender at each infield position according to Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved. He’s a switch-hitter that has typically fared better from the larger (left-handed) side of the platoon, and while his speed hasn’t been as apparent in recent years, he averaged 19 steals per season in 2010-12 and has generally been a positive all-around contributor on the basepaths.
Pennington can provide the Angels with a backup plan to newly acquired Andrelton Simmons, as the team’s only backup option at shortstop had been Taylor Featherston, who is probably ticketed for Triple-A to open the 2016 campaign after surviving 2015 as a little-used Rule 5 utility option. The Angels currently have uncertainty at both second base and third base, so bringing Pennington into the fold gives them a bit of depth on the Major League roster, though they’ll almost certainly look to upgrade at one of the two spots. Johnny Giavotella handled second base duties in 2015 but is a poor defender with limited offensive upside, and the Angels may not want to count on Kyle Kubitza or Kaleb Cowart to immediately step into the picture at third base given their lack of experience.
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Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa Win Rookie Of The Year Awards
Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant and Astros shortstop Carlos Correa have been named Rookie of the Year in their respective leagues by the Baseball Writers Association of America.
Bryant won the award in unanimous fashion, beating out second-place finisher Matt Duffy of the Giants. Pirates infielder Jung Ho Kang, Noah Syndergaard of the Mets and Justin Bour of the Marlins finished third through fifth, with each player garnering multiple points in the voting. The Dodgers’ Joc Pederson and Cardinals’ Stephen Piscotty each received a third-place vote, earning each one point.
Bryant, 23, entered the year with considerable hype after decimating Triple-A pitching in 2014. There was some outrage when it was announced that he’d begin the season in the minor leaguers, but he was quickly promoted to the Majors (uncoincidentally as soon as his free agency had been delayed by one year) and quickly established himself as one of the premier third basemen in the game. Bryant batted .275/.369/.488 with 26 home runs and 13 stolen bases this season while also delivering strong defense at third base and even contributing in the outfield.
The race in the American League was much closer, with Correa narrowly edging out fellow shortstop Francisco Lindor. Correa received 17 first-place votes and 13 second-place votes, whereas Lindor received 13 first-place votes and 14 second-place votes. Trailing the two were young Twins slugger Miguel Sano, Blue Jays closer Roberto Osuna, A’s center fielder Billy Burns, Twins left fielder Eddie Rosario and Rangers center fielder Delino DeShields Jr.
Correa batted an impressive .279/.345/.512 with 22 homers and 14 steals. Wins above replacement measures liked Lindor better for the award due to his superior glove and on-base percentage, but Correa slugged 10 more homers and knocked in more runs, likely widening the gap in the eyes of many voters. Most pundits agreed that either would be a fine choice for the award given the exceptional seasons enjoyed by each.
Mariners Acquire Leonys Martin From Rangers For Tom Wilhelmsen
The Mariners have officially struck a deal to acquire outfielder Leonys Martin and righty Anthony Bass from the Rangers in exchange for right-handed reliever Tom Wilhelmsen, outfielder James Jones, and a player to be named later.
Martin had fallen out of favor in Texas after a rough 2015 season. The 27-year-old is an outstanding defender and major threat on the bases, but he slashed just .219/.264/.313 over 310 plate appearances. In the meantime, the Rangers found a Rule 5 gem in Delino DeShields Jr. While he and Martin made for a natural platoon pairing, there seemed to be some discord between Martin and the club after he was left off of the playoff roster and then refused to participate in Instructional League as a way to stay ready in case he was needed.
New Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto said that he sees Martin as a victim of bad luck — citing his .270 BABIP last year, which fell well below his .313 career mark — who ought to turn things around. (Via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times, on Twitter.) It appears that Martin will go right to the top of the depth chart in Seattle, though Dipoto also told reporters tonight that another outfield addition could still be in the offing. It’s a good bet, though, that the team won’t now chase top free agents such as Dexter Fowler or Denard Span.
In addition to adding three years of control over Martin, Seattle will pick up three arb seasons of Bass. He represents a useful arm who will help maintain the Mariners’ bullpen depth. The 28-year-old comes with three years of arb control. He contributed only a 4.50 ERA last year, with 6.3 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9, but tossed 64 innings and drew more positive reviews from advanced metrics. While Wilhelmsen had represented a late-inning option, Dipoto had already gone out and added veteran set-up man Joaquin Benoit. But the club’s pen struggled last year, and adding Bass in this trade helps to guard against any scrambling for innings.
Texas, meanwhile, will add two seasons of Wilhelmsen, a 31-year-old righty who possesses a mid-90s heater. The veteran has thrown over 300 frames in the majors, working to a 2.97 overall ERA with 8.5 K/9 against 4.0 BB/9. He was right in that range in 2015, but continued a trend of posting earned run results that are much better than ERA estimators would expect. (For his career, Wilhelmsen has a 3.39 FIP, 3.94 xFIP, and 3.67 SIERA.)
Wilhelmsen figures to bolster a Rangers’ late-inning relief corps that has its share of questions. While pitchers like Shawn Tolleson, Keone Kela, Jake Diekman, and Sam Dyson all turned in quality seasons, there are enough question marks with that group that another good arm made sense.
And Jones is more than a throw-in, as he could ultimately be a cheaper and more controllable version of Martin. The left-handed hitter has not shown much of anything in his 400+ major league plate appearances, but has generally been rather productive at the plate in the high minors. Notably, last year, he not only put up a solid .294/.373/.423 batting line at Triple-A, but struck out only 68 times (against 53 walks) in his 501 trips to the plate — representing a huge improvement over prior seasons. While he may not possess an elite glove, Jones has swiped 28 bags in his limited MLB action. He could make for a useful pairing with DeShields up the middle.
While this deal shifts the assets between the clubs, it’s worth noting that it won’t have much impact on their respective payroll situations. MLBTR projects Martin to earn $3.75MM next year, matching his salary from 2015 — he would have only been projected at $1.6MM without that starting point — while Bass lands at $1.1MM. Meanwhile, the arb model pegs Wilhelmsen at an even $3MM.
Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reported the deal on Twitter. T.R. Sullivan first reported (on Twitter) the inclusion of Jones.
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Check Out Our MLB Free Agent Tracker
With the offseason underway, make sure to bookmark our 2015-16 MLB free agent tracker. This feature provides everything you need to follow along with the excitement of MLB free agency. Our tracker allows you to filter by signing team, signing status, position, contract, qualifying offer status, and handedness. We’ve also added tracking for the different contract option types.
The tracker has endless uses. For example, here’s a list filtered to show all unsigned starting pitchers who did not receive a qualifying offer. Here’s a look at everyone who has signed or retired so far. And here are all the unsigned right-handed-hitting right fielders.
Check out the constantly-updated 2015-16 MLB Free Agent Tracker today!
Phillies Acquire Jeremy Hellickson From Diamondbacks
The Phillies have announced that they’ve acquired starting pitcher Jeremy Hellickson from the Diamondbacks, with 20-year-old righty Sam McWilliams heading to Arizona. The 28-year-old Hellickson is projected to make $6.6MM in 2016 in his final season before free agency, and he will presumably help fill out the rotation for a rebuilding Phillies team.
As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd noted in his Offseason Outlook post on the Phillies, the team can use a bit more certainty in their rotation behind Aaron Nola and Jerad Eickhoff. Hellickson could help provide it. Following his Rookie of the Year award with the Rays in 2011 and a solid follow-up campaign in 2012, the 28-year-old Hellickson has essentially been a back-of-the-rotation starter, fighting through injury issues along the way. After heading from Tampa to Arizona in a trade last offseason (a year ago today, in fact, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times points out), Hellickson pitched 146 innings, posting a 4.62 ERA, 7.5 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 2015 while missing a bit of time due to a hamstring issue. Still, the Phillies likely feel he’s capable of eating innings, and if he can regain a bit of his early-career magic, they could conceivably deal him to a contender this summer.
McWilliams, an eighth-round pick out of a Tennessee high school in 2014, spent his second consecutive season with the Phillies’ Gulf Coast League affiliate in 2015, where he posted a 3.27 ERA, 5.7 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 in 33 innings. MLB.com ranked McWilliams the Phillies’ No. 27 prospect, noting that he’s big (at 6’7) and can throw in the mid-90s. He has a changeup but is still developing his breaking stuff, making him a bit of a project.
McWilliams appears to be an interesting lottery ticket, but the Diamondbacks’ return for Hellickson looks relatively modest, which isn’t surprising. MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted last week that Hellickson was a potential non-tender candidate, while also pointing out that a trade was a possibility. Hellickson is useful, but perhaps not worth $6.6MM, and Diamondbacks GM Dave Stewart has shown interest in pursuing higher-wattage pitching talent this offseason. Clearing Hellickson’s rotation spot and salary appears to help him do that.
CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury first reported that the two sides were working on a trade (Twitter link). Baseball Essential’s Robert Murray first tweeted that the deal was done, adding that a right-handed pitching prospect would head to the D-Backs in the exchange. John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 reported that McWilliams was the pitcher in question (Twitter link).
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Red Sox Acquire Craig Kimbrel
The Red Sox have acquired star closer Craig Kimbrel from the Padres. It’s a stunning move for new president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, whose club will now have both Kimbrel and ace reliever Koji Uehara to lock down the late innings.
There’s a significant haul going back to San Diego. Top outfield prospect Manuel Margot, shortstop Javier Guerra, infielder Carlos Asuaje, and lefty Logan Allen make up the return. All four players rated among the thirty best Red Sox prospects in MLB.com’s latest ranking, with Margot (#25) and Guerra (#76) also checking in among the top 100 prospects league-wide.
Kimbrel, 27, has long been one of the game’s very best pen arms. Though he is no longer quite as mind-bogglingly dominant as he was back in 2012, he’s still an ace reliever of the highest caliber. Last year, he worked to a 2.58 ERA over 59 1/3 innings, with 13.2 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9. Those were excellent numbers, of course, but didn’t really come close to what he’d done to that point, as he carried a lifetime 1.43 ERA into the season.
To a large extent, the fall-off (if you can really call it that) was driven by a jump in Kimbrel’s home run proneness, as he allowed career highs of 0.91 HR/9 and a 13.6% HR/FB rate. But basically all other relevant markers stayed constant. The batted-ball profile of opposing hitters appears to be in line with prior seasons. And Kimbrel not only maintained his average fastball velocity, but bumped it to a career-high of 97.3 mph.
Boston will pick up three years of control over Kimbrel. The contract includes a $24MM guarantee over the next two seasons and a $13MM club option in 2018 that carries a $1MM buyout. The Sox will be responsible for the entirety of Kimbrel’s remaining salary in the deal.
It remains to be seen what the move means for the rest of Boston’s offseason, but at first glance, it makes free agency appear the likelier route to add a major starting pitcher. Of course, the Sox still have plenty of prospects to deal, and could still consider dealing young MLB-level players like Jackie Bradley, so there are still plenty of options.
We’ve already seen San Diego GM A.J. Preller swing huge deals on the buyer’s side, and now we know he can part with major assets, too. The Pads had already shipped out another established late-inning arm, Joaquin Benoit, during last week’s GM Meetings. It looks to be another offseason of change for the Padres.
Naturally, the first thought upon hearing about the deal goes to the swap that brought Kimbrel to the Padres on the eve of Opening Day 2015. San Diego was able to get him while parting only with a good-but-not-great pitching prospect in Matt Wisler, young outfielder Jordan Paroubeck, and a competitive balance draft pick. Of course, that deal also included a whole lot of financial shuffling — Melvin Upton to the Pads, Cameron Maybin and Carlos Quentin to the Braves — that left San Diego with more than $20MM in additional obligations.
That largely explains the differences in the returns, but there’s an argument to be made that Preller did quite well in the overall calculus (while also getting a season of Kimbrel in the 9th inning). After all, the group of players in tonight’s trade could be special.
Margot is arguably the headliner. The 21-year-old now figures to be the Friars’ long-term center fielder and isn’t terribly far away from commanding a shot in the majors. His power is still developing, but Margot has shown the ability to tally in the double digits over a full season (2014) and swiped 39 bags last year. He struck out only 51 times in 480 plate appearances last year, slashing a solid .276/.324/.419 split between High-A and Double-A.
Guerra, too, is a major piece. As Baseball America’s Josh Norris writes, he’s an outstanding defender who showed surprising power last season, which significantly raised his prospect stock. While it’s far from certain that he’ll remain a 15-homer threat, and he’s somewhat strikeout-prone, the 20-year-old nevertheless has immense promise.
The other two pieces in this deal are hardly throw-ins. Asuaje is already 24, and doesn’t have outstanding physical tools or outstanding power or speed, per MLB.com. But he’s shown a very promising bat and certainly seems on course to become a contributor in the majors.
Then, there’s the 18-year-old Allen, who was only able to be dealt because of the rule changes that occurred after last year’s Trea Turner deal. Taken in the eighth round of this summer’s draft and inked to an above-slot bonus, the southpaw is said to have a fair bit of polish for his age to go with an increasingly impressive arsenal.
It remains to be seen, of course, how the Pads move forward after parting with two most established relievers. This was a pure prospect move, as none of the four acquired youngsters figure to be ready in 2016. Notably, though, the two early-offseason trades have opened just under $18.5MM in payroll that otherwise would have been tied up in the pen. That’s a huge amount of additional space to work with for a team that only cracked $100MM in Opening Day payroll last year, and certainly opens up the possibility of more significant free agent involvement.
In large part, one’s assessment of the deal depends upon how one feels about reliever valuation. Kimbrel is obviously capable of delivering huge value from the back of the pen, but he’s only throwing a third or less of the innings of a starter. As Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs recently discussed, there could be some value that WAR is missing in weighing elite pen arms. Kimbrel has been a two-to-three win annual pitcher for most of his career, though he’s separated from the top end of that range by a few years. As you start to slide that number up, he looks more and more like an upper-middle rotation starter in terms of overall value. It’s an open and fascinating question — and one that Dombrowski, at least, already appears to have answered.
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported the trade of Kimbrel on Twitter. The return was reported by Josh Norris of Baseball America (Twitter links), Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (on Twitter), and Alex Speier of the Boston Globe tweets. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweeted the salary details.
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Brett Anderson Accepts Qualifying Offer From Dodgers
Lefty Brett Anderson has decided to accept the qualifying offer issued to him by the Dodgers, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports on Twitter. He becomes the third player to accept a qualifying offer this year, joining Colby Rasmus (Astros) and Matt Wieters (Orioles).
Anderson is just 27 years of age and is coming off of a year in which he put up 180 1/3 innings of 3.69 ERA ball. That makes his decision somewhat surprising, at first glance, particularly given his pedigree. And metrics like xFIP (3.51) and SIERA (3.46) felt that Anderson was a bit unlucky, with his 17.0% HR/FB rate probably stands to drop back toward his career levels (11.2%). All told, there was good reason to think he’d draw wide interest as a free agent.
Of course, it’s obviously highly relevant that the talented southpaw failed to reach the 100-inning threshold in any of the four preceding seasons. His results have generally been quite strong, and his 3.72 career ERA is actually a fair bit higher than ERA estimators value his performance, but Anderson has dealt with a wide variety of injuries. He’s battled through Tommy John surgery, a fractured foot, a broken finger, and back issues over his careers.
In short, then, Anderson presented possible suitors with ample risk and plenty of upside. And he faced the same kind of calculus in assessing his decision on the qualifying offer.
It’s worth noting that Anderson was able to earn a $10MM base salary and $2.4MM in incentives in his contract last year, coming off of yet another injury-shortened campaign. It certainly would have been plausible to imagine him signing a nice one-year contract if nothing better was offered, possibly with a club that had already given up an early pick or two to sign other QO-bound free agents.
But there were other considerations at play, too, for Anderson and his reps at the Legacy Agency. In addition to ensuring that he’ll add a hefty, $15.8MM salary to his bank account, the move allows Anderson another opportunity to prove his health and effectiveness. He’ll still be plenty young next year, when the market features nothing close to this season’s mass of top-end talent and overall depth. With a big 2016, then, Anderson could be in prime position to cash in.
Los Angeles will be glad if Anderson does position himself for a big payday, as they would stand to reap the benefits. The team is uniquely situated to take on this kind of salary in a one-year arrangement, and is probably not displeased at the chance to fill a rotation spot with a good arm without binding up future commitments. The team is certainly not done shopping, though, as the rotation still needs to be filled out — including, perhaps, adding another high-level arm alongside ace Clayton Kershaw.
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