Indians Extend Terry Francona
The Indians announced that they have agreed to a two-year contract extension with manager Terry Francona that runs through the 2018 season. Francona’s new contract also contains club options for the 2019 and 2020 seasons.
Francona’s previous four-year contract with the Indians ran through the 2016 season, but the Indians will now have as many as four additional years of control should they choose. Francona just wrapped up his second year as Cleveland’s skipper, and in his two years on the job he’d led the team to 92 wins and a Wild Card playoff berth in 2013 as well as a solid 85-win campaign in 2014.
Best known for his role as Boston’s manager during their curse-ending World Series run in 2004 and their follow-up World Series victory in 2007, Francona has spent a total of 14 years as a big league manager. In that time, he’s posted a 1206-1062 record and taken home AL Manager of the Year honors. Somewhat surprisingly, his first Manager of the Year Award didn’t come until 2013 — his first with Cleveland.
Francona is regarded by executives, coaching peers and players as one of the most respected managers in the game. He’s the type of established and admired skipper that is an asset in luring free agents to come to a team. “You don’t bring a guy like this over here if you don’t plan on winning,” Nick Swisher said to reporters at the press conference to announce his signing.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Free Agent Profile: Sergio Romo
Sergio Romo is one of several big name relievers on the open market this winter. Despite his hiccups in 2014, he’s expected to find an attractive offer from a club betting on a rebound in 2015.
Strengths/Pros
In 2013, Romo looked like one of the top closers in the majors. The right-hander pitched to a 2.54 ERA with 8.7 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 in 65 appearances (52 to close out the game) and rightfully earned his first career All-Star selection. In fact, while he found widespread recognition in 2013 as the Giants’ full-time closer, his body of work as a whole deserves a tip of the cap. Across seven seasons, Romo has proven himself to be a strong late-inning reliever, as evidenced by his career 2.51 ERA with 10.1 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9. Simply put, he has a track record of being aggressive enough to make hitters whiff while keeping the walks way, way down. 
Aside from strong strikeout numbers and even stronger walk numbers, Romo’s resume shows that he is more durable than a lot of his peers. Since 2010, Romo has made no less than 64 appearances in a season. It’s not hard to imagine that continuing in 2015 and beyond since Romo doesn’t throw a tendon-tearing 100 mph fastball.
This past season obviously wasn’t Romo’s best, but there’s reason to believe that he can return to his old form. Romo’s HR/FB ratio of 13.0% in 2014 was the highest of his career and a regression towards his career average of 8.1% would go a long way towards tamping down his ERA.
Romo’s numbers haven’t been boosted by a home field advantage as his performance has pretty much been the same within the confines of AT&T Park as they have been on the road. Romo hasn’t shown much of a platoon split either. He has also been very strong through three postseason runs and has the experience of pitching in three World Series on his resume.
It should also be noted that the 31-year-old (32 by Opening Day) won’t be tied down by a qualifying offer this winter. And, while the sabermetric community may roll its eyes at the mention of saves, Romo is just one year removed from a 38-save season.
Weaknesses/Cons
Suffice to say, Romo didn’t have the kind of walk year he was hoping for. His strikeout and walk numbers were more or less there (9.2 K/9, 1.9 BB/9) but his 3.72 ERA left much to be desired and his 3.40 xFIP only granted him so much slack. Romo’s regular season efforts netted him a -0.3 WAR, the first negative posting of his career. In general, Romo’s xFIP has been about a half-run higher than his ERA would indicate, though a career mark of 3.02 is hardly a poor number.
Romo’s velocity has dipped a bit over the years, and he can’t afford to lose much more off of his 88 mph average from 2014. Among free agent right-handed relievers, Romo’s fastball had the slowest average. In fact, his heater was the fifth-slowest among all qualified relief pitchers in 2014.
Of course, losing the closer’s mantle this summer could hurt Romo’s stock and perception. He’ll likely be considered as a closing option by some clubs, but some may prefer him in a setup capacity.
Personal
Romo has two sons and greatly enjoys spending the bulk of his off time with them. He also has multiple charitable efforts in the state of California and is something of the gym rat. Romo makes his offseason home in Phoenix, Arizona.
In a lot of ways Sergio patterns his parenting style after his own dad, Frank. “If I become half the dad my dad is, I’ll be happy,” Romo told ESPN The Magazine’s Tim Keown.
As Keown detailed, Frank pushed Sergio to join the Navy out of high school but relented by giving him two years to pursue his baseball dream. It’s safe to say that was a good call. Romo turned into one of the stronger set-up men in MLB and in 2012, he got his chance to close when Brian Wilson suffered an unfortunate elbow injury and Santiago Casilla developed blisters.
“I have to admit, I wasn’t ready for what happened [in 2012],” Romo said. “I was afraid of a lot of the attention I got. I leaned on my teammates. I credit them for allowing me to be better than I think I really am. They brought the best out of me, and I didn’t have time to think about myself and my doubts. Many times I would think, ‘Man, how can they have so much faith and I’m sitting here doubting myself?’”
Market
Given his struggles in 2014, it’s hard to say whether the Giants would want to welcome back Romo, particularly if it would require a raise from his current $5.5MM salary. In early May, the Giants were hoping to lock Romo up for the long term. Now, that’s far from a given. In the spring, Romo appeared poised to stand as the top free agent closer this winter. Since then, Romo has arguably been leapfrogged by David Robertson, Andrew Miller, Luke Gregerson, and other available late-inning options.
Even if he’s not in the top-tier of eighth or ninth-inning guys, he’ll still get plenty of interest. The Yankees, if they lose Robertson, might want to fortify their bullpen with a less expensive option like Romo. Ditto for the Orioles and Andrew Miller, who Tim Dierkes sees fetching a four-year, $32MM deal. Recently, our own Steve Adams suggested the Indians as a possible fit for the veteran and teams like the White Sox, Astros, Dodgers, and Red Sox could also get in the mix. There will be tons of clubs on the lookout for bullpen arms, so agent Barry Meister figures field calls from a number of GMs.
Expected Contract
Romo is one of many notable bullpen arms available this winter and with so many options out there, he may not want to drag his feet in finding a deal. Waiting until after the New Year could mean settling for something far less lucrative than what he’s hoping for today. Still, if he’s intent on exploring the open market, he may have to wait for the dominoes to fall.
Romo will have more suitors once the runners-up for Robertson, Miller, and the like start to search out other options. Then again, maybe it won’t come to that. After topping the Royals, the afterglow of the Giants’ third World Series title in five years could help to facilitate a reunion early on in the process.
Ultimately, I see Romo signing a three-year, $21MM deal this offseason.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
A.J. Burnett Declines Player Option
Phillies starter A.J. Burnett has declined his player option, the Phillies announced. By turning down his $12.75MM option, Burnett will become a free agent.
Burnett’s decision was one of the more closely-watched option situations around the game, in large part because the outcome was unclear. The Phillies have recently made clear they intend to focus the organization’s energies on rebuilding for the future rather than competing in the near-term, and that — combined with his experiences last year — may have encouraged Burnett to leave the cash on the table.
Indeed, from Philadelphia’s perspective, the savings on Burnett appear to constitute a nice opportunity. As MLBTR’s Brad Johnson wrote in his outlook for the Phils, the decision swing open a significant bit of space between the team’s current obligations and the luxury tax line.
For Burnett, the decision leaves him free to pursue a deal with a contending club, and his agent tells Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter link) that he’ll do just that. Of course, Burnett presumably still carries his preference for joining a team within range of his Maryland home.
Burnett is not quite the commodity he was last year — his 4.59 ERA/4.14 FIP/3.95 xFIP/4.00 SIERA campaign does not have nearly the luster that last year’s 3.30/2.80/2.92/3.03 numbers did. And he is a year older, entering his age-38 campaign. On the other hand, he again posted big innings totals and did pitch through a sports hernia for most of the year.
Padres Designate Stults, Roach; Lose Jackson To Dodgers On Waivers
The Padres announced today that they have designated left-hander Eric Stults and right-hander Donn Roach for assignment, adding that catcher Adam Moore has been outrighted off the 40-man roster. Additionally, infielder Ryan Jackson has been claimed off waivers by the Dodgers.
The moves make room for the reinstatement of right-hander Casey Kelly, left-hander Cory Luebke, first baseman Yonder Alonso and outfielder Carlos Quentin from the 60-day disabled list.
Stults, who is nearing his 35th birthday, threw 176 innings of 4.30 ERA ball last season, tallying 5.7 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9. Those numbers represent a downtick from his work over 2012-13, when Stults carried a 3.60 ERA across 302 2/3 innings. The major difference in his year-over-year results comes in the form of an increasing rate of home runs allowed. ERA estimators have generally viewed him in much the same light: as a below-average starting pitcher. Stults had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.6MM through arbitration, so the move is not terribly surprising.
Roach, meanwhile, made his MLB debut this year at age 24. He posted a 4.75 ERA in 30 1/3 frames while posting an unappetizing 5.0 K/9 against 4.5 BB/9. His numbers at Triple-A were no more promising, but Roach has had success in the lower minor league levels.
As for Moore, the 30-year-old backstop has seen action in parts of six MLB seasons but has only taken more than 24 plate appearances in one of them (back in 2010 with the Mariners). Once a well-regarded prospect, Moore has a .200/.241/.309 line over 283 trips to the plate in the majors. He did, however, have an excellent campaign at Triple-A this year, slashing .305/.367/.506 and swatting 13 long balls over 354 plate appearances.
The 26-year-old Jackson will present a utility infield option for his new club. He has scant major league experience, but owns a .274/.344/.369 slash in over 1,000 plate appearances at the Triple-A level and comes with a good defensive reputation at short. Jackson missed most of 2014 after undergoing wrist surgery.
Orioles Make Qualifying Offer To Nelson Cruz
The Orioles announced that they have made a one-year, $15.3MM qualifying offer to Nelson Cruz and also re-instated Manny Machado and Matt Wieters from the 60-day disabled list, bringing the team’s 40-man roster to 33. At this point, it appears that Nick Markakis will not be the recipient of a QO, which should help his stock on the free agent market. Of course, he’s also said to be discussing a four-year deal to remain in Baltimore.
Cruz signed a one-year, $8MM contract with the Orioles last winter after seeking as much as $75MM+ despite battling the negative impact of both a QO and a season-ending PED suspension. His 2014 performance indicated that teams needn’t be overly concerned with his power production following the suspension, however, as he hit .271/.333/.525 with Major League leading 40 home runs (plus two more in the postseason).
Cruz is expected to turn down the offer, of course, on the heels of that excellent season in hopes of finding the multi-year deal he wasn’t able to secure last winter. If he signs elsewhere, the O’s will get a comp pick at the end of next year’s first round, and the signing club will forfeit its top unprotected draft pick.
MLBTR’s Free Agent Tracker can be used to monitor all players who received a qualifying offer over the next week until the deadline for them to make their decisions, which will be 5pm ET next Monday.
Dodgers Make Qualifying Offer To Hanley Ramirez
The Dodgers announced that they have made a one-year, $15.3MM qualifying offer to Hanley Ramirez.
The move was widely expected, as Ramirez will hit the open market as arguably the top position player in this year’s free agent class. The 30-year-old Ramirez batted .283/.369/.448 with 13 homers in 128 games this season, and while he’s been injury prone over the past few years, he comes with the upside of being one of the game’s best offensive players, as he was in 2013 upon activation from the disabled list. Ramirez slashed an otherworldly .345/.402/.638 with 20 homers in 86 games that year and is a lifetime .300/.373/.500 hitter.
Ramirez will have a week to accept or decline the offer, though that’s little more than a formality as he will clearly decline in favor of a multi-year free agent deal. If he signs elsewhere after rejecting the offer, the Dodgers would receive a compensatory draft pick at the end of next year’s first round.
His status, along with that of others who have been recipients of the qualifying offer, can be monitored in MLBTR’s Free Agent Tracker.
Rockies Extend Qualifying Offer To Michael Cuddyer
The Rockies announced that they have extended a one-year, $15.3MM qualifying offer to Michael Cuddyer.
Needless to say, this move comes as a bit of a surprise. The 35-year-old Cuddyer will turn 36 next March and played in just 49 games this season. While his production over the past two seasons has been unquestionably outstanding when healthy — he’s batted .331/.385/.543 and captured the 2013 NL Batting Title — Cuddyer was not seen as a candidate for a QO due to his injuries and age.
No player has ever accepted a qualifying offer, but Cuddyer strikes me as a candidate to be the first to do so. Should he reject, teams will have to forfeit their top unprotected draft pick in order to sign Cuddyer. Given his inability to stay on the field last year and his defensive question marks, that may be a lot for a team to stomach. It’s also worth pointing out that the $15.3MM sum would represent nearly half of the total guarantee on Cuddyer’s previous three-year, $31.5MM contract, meaning he’d be getting a substantial raise in terms of AAV. One possibility is that the Rockies are using the qualifying offer as leverage with the hope of getting Cuddyer to agree to a more affordable two-year extension.
Cuddyer and other players who have received the QO can be followed using MLBTR’s Free Agent Tracker.
Red Sox Outright Herrera; Rivero Claimed By Mariners
The Red Sox announced today that infielder Jonathan Herrera has been outrighted off the 40-man roster and will elect free agency. Additionally, infielder Carlos Rivero has been claimed off waivers by the Mariners, according to the Red Sox.
Herrera, who turns 30 years old today, batted .233/.307/.289 in 104 plate appearances with Boston after being acquired last offseason in exchange for lefty Franklin Morales and right-hander Chris Martin. The versatile switch-hitter played all four infield positions for the Red Sox and is a lifetime .263/.324/.329 hitter in 1213 plate appearances — all of which came with the Rockies with the exception of this year’s stint with Boston.
Rivero, 26, made his Major League debut for the Sox in 2014 and went 4-for-7 with a homer and a pair of doubles. That burst of production doesn’t really line up with the .280/.333/.394 batting line that Rivero has compiled in four seasons at the Triple-A level, but he’s shown quite a bit of versatility by appearing at shortstop, third base, left field and first base throughout his minor league career. Rivero has previously spent time with the Indians and Nationals in addition to the Sox.
Braves Make Qualifying Offer To Ervin Santana
The Braves announced that they have officially made a one-year, $15.3MM qualifying offer to right-hander Ervin Santana, who will now have a week to accept or decline the offer. Should he decline and sign elsewhere, which seems likely, the Braves would receive a compensatory draft pick at the end of the first round of next year’s draft.
Santana, 31, enjoyed a solid season for Atlanta in which he posted a 3.95 ERA with 8.2 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and a 42.7 percent ground-ball rate in 196 innings of work. While his ERA rose, metrics such as FIP (3.39) and xFIP (3.47) felt Santana had his best season since 2008.
Santana was hit with a QO last offseason as well and struggled to find a deal, though that may have been more due to the fact that his agents (two of whom no longer represent Santana) were said to be seeking a deal north of $110MM than the fact that Santana required a draft pick in order to sign. Even with a QO hanging over his head, Santana was able to find a one-year deal worth the exact amount of the QO ($14.1MM) late in the offseason, and he had similar one-year offers from both Baltimore and Toronto as well as three-year offer in the $30-33MM range from the Twins.
Suffice it to say, while the QO likely impacted his value in a negative manner, it certainly didn’t eliminate all interest in him on the open market. I’d wager that hitting the market with more realistic expectations this time could be beneficial — a sentiment which Tim Dierkes elaborated upon in his recent Free Agent Profile for Santana. Tim ultimately predicted a four-year deal north of $50MM for Santana — a projection with which I agree.
Earlier today, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweeted that Santana has indicated that he’d consider accepting the QO, though as O’Brien noted shortly thereafter, it’s possible that was simply posturing by Santana’s camp in an effort to dissuade the team from making the offer in the first place (Twitter links).
You can use MLBTR’s Free Agent Tracker to follow everyone who’s received a QO to this point and track their status in the coming week as they make their decisions.
White Sox Claim J.B. Shuck
The Indians announced that outfielder J.B. Shuck has been claimed off waivers by the White Sox.
Shuck, 27, posted a solid season with the bat in 2013 with the Angels but struggled to repeat those numbers in 2014. After hitting .293/.331/.366 last year, he mustered just a .145/.168/.209 batting line between the Angels and Indians this year. Defensive metrics were very high on Shuck this season, though they saw his work in the outfield corners as average to below average overall in 2013.
In parts of four seasons at the Triple-A level, Shuck is a .302/.381/.384 hitter. He’ll provide the White Sox with some lefty-hitting depth in the outfield — an area in which the team is currently thin.