NPB’s Hiroshima Carp Sign Elehuris Montero, Re-Sign Taylor Hearn
The Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced this week that they’ve signed infielder Elehuris Montero and re-signed lefty Taylor Hearn, who excelled for the Carp in a relief role in 2024 (Japanese-language links via Yahoo Japan). Both players are CAA clients, and both are receiving one-year deals for the 2025 campaign.
Montero, 26, was once a highly touted corner infield prospect in the Cardinals system. He landed with the Rockies alongside Austin Gomber, Mateo Gil, Tony Locey and Jake Sommers in the trade sending Nolan Arenado to St. Louis. Colorado outrighted him off the 40-man roster this past July, and he became a minor league free agent at season’s end.
The Rox gave Montero his big league debut in 2022, but while he’s shown power at times throughout parts of three MLB seasons, he’s never been able to put the ball in play or reach base with any real consistency. The righty-swinging slugger is a career .228/.277/.387 hitter in 739 plate appearances. He’s been far better in Triple-A, mashing at a .314/.392/.589 pace in 877 trips to the plate. That’s the type of production the Carp surely are hoping to acquire.
The 30-year-old Hearn was a fifth-round pick by the Nats back in 2015 and has pitched in parts of five MLB seasons — primarily with the Rangers. He worked as both a starter and reliever during his time in Texas, enjoying far more success in the bullpen (4.48 ERA, 24.6 K%, 11 BB%) than in the rotation (6.36 ERA, 18.3 K%, 9.5 BB%).
It was in the bullpen that Hearn starred for the Carp upon signing with them last December. He missed some time in ’24 but was excellent when on the mound, pitching 35 innings with a pristine 1.29 ERA. Hearn was one of the primary setup men for the Carp, though he picked up a pair of saves as well. In his 35 frames, he fanned 20.2% of his opponents against a terrific 5.4% walk rate.
Anderson Espinoza Re-Signs With NPB’s Orix Buffaloes
Right-hander Anderson Espinoza has re-signed with the Orix Buffaloes of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball on a two-year deal worth roughly $6MM, according to a report from Swing Completo’s Victor Briceno (h/t to Yakyu Cosmopolitan). 2025 will be Espinoza’s second year with the Buffaloes in NPB.
Espinoza, 26, made his pro debut with the Red Sox back in 2015 after signing as an international free agent out of Venezuela. He quickly emerged as one of the league’s top up-and-coming pitching talents as he was consistently rated as a top-20 prospect in the sport, and was traded from Boston to San Diego in the Drew Pomeranz trade back in 2016. Unfortunately, Espinoza promptly fell victim to the injury bug and did not throw another pitch in the minor leagues for four years due to multiple Tommy John surgeries and the cancelled 2020 minor league season.
In 2021, Espinoza finally made his way back to the minor league mound and was traded to the Cubs in a deal that sent Jake Marisnick to the Padres. Espinoza struggled badly at the minor league level during his time in the Cubs organization, posting ERAs north of 5.00 at every stop on his journey, but that didn’t stop the rebuilding club from giving Espinoza his first look in the big leagues during the 2022 season, seven years after he first threw a professional pitch. That cup of coffee saw him pitch to a 5.40 ERA in 18 1/3 multi-inning relief appearances, though he was eventually cut from the club’s roster and headed to minor league free agency the following offseason.
2023 saw Espinoza return to the Padres organization on a minor league deal, and he moved back into the rotation after his stint in the bullpen with Chicago. Espinoza’s results at Triple-A El Paso were ugly, as he struggled to a 6.15 ERA in 131 2/3 innings of work that was well below average even for the inflated offensive environment found in the Pacific Coast League. He struck out just 19.3% of opponents while walking 12%, and he once again headed into free agency last winter with his future uncertain.
That led Espinoza to take a deal with the Buffaloes back in January, and his move overseas could hardly have gone better. In 22 Pacific League starts for the club this year, Espinoza was utterly dominant with a 2.63 ERA in 133 2/3 innings of work. The right-hander’s 20.5% strikeout rate wasn’t especially extraordinary, but he managed to cut his walk rate to a much more manageable just 8.7% while averaging just over six innings per start during his time in NPB this year.
That’s likely a strong enough performance that Espinoza, who is still just 26 years old, could have received some level of interest in stateside ball this winter. Rather than pursue a minor league deal in MLB, however, the right-hander instead took the Buffaloes up on their offer to return on a deal that not only provides him multi-year security for the first time in his career but also figures to pay him more handsomely than any offers on this side of the pond would have. With that being said, if Espinoza can continue to put up strong numbers in Japan over the next two years it’s not hard to imagine him then considering a move back to MLB as a number of pitchers who went overseas such as Miles Mikolas and Erick Fedde have done in the past.
Franmil Reyes Re-Signs With NPB’s Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters
After a strong first season in Nippon Professional Baseball, Franmil Reyes is planning an encore, as the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters announced that the slugger has signed a new contract with the team for the 2025 season. Japanese media reports from last weekend suggested that Reyes was likely to stay with the Fighters and the club was prepared to offer him a multi-year contract, but he’ll instead return on a one-year deal.
In taking the one-year contract, Reyes might well be keeping his options open about a possible return to the majors next winter, as another big season in NPB would help his case for a guaranteed contract with a North American team. Reyes hit .290/.348/.564 with 25 homers over 368 plate appearances this season, mostly as a designated hitter and with a handful of appearances at first base. This production helped the Fighers to a second-place finish in the Pacific League and then a victory over the Chiba Lotte Marines in the first postseason round, though a sweep at the hands of the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks denied the Fighters a spot in the Japan Series.
It was a needed bounce-back season for Reyes after his MLB career seemed to stall out after a pair of very rough seasons. Reyes hit only .217/.268/.356 with 16 home runs over 538 PA with the Guardians, Cubs, and Royals in 2022-23, plus a stint in the Nationals’ farm system came and went without a big league call-up.
Reyes hit a much more impressive .260/.325/.503 with 92 homers in 1540 PA over his first four seasons in the majors, slugging 92 homers for San Diego and Cleveland. Though strikeouts were always a big part of his game and his shaky defense indicated a DH-only future, Reyes still seemed to be on track to be a three-true-outcomes type of force before his sudden decline. While Reyes was still making a lot of hard contact in 2022, his walk rate dropped off sharply and his strikeout rate continued to rise.
Reyes is still only 29 years old, with his 30th birthday coming up in July. He could well pursue a third act to his career back in the big leagues in the wake of what seems to be a successful second act in Japan, or perhaps likes it enough in NPB to eventually pursue a multi-year deal with the Fighters if he keeps hitting.
NPB’s Chunichi Dragons To Post Shinnosuke Ogasawara
The Chunichi Dragons of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball have granted left-hander Shinnosuke Ogasawara‘s request to be posted for MLB teams, per a report from Yahoo Japan. He’ll be available to big league clubs in free agency this winter and is being represented by WME. A formal date for his posting has not yet been determined, but he’ll have 45 days to negotiate with MLB clubs once posted. If no deal is reached, Ogasawara will return to the Dragons for the 2025 season.
Ogasawara just turned 27 years old earlier this month. He’s already a veteran of parts of nine NPB seasons, having made his Central League debut as an 18-year-old back in 2016. Listed at 5’11” and 183 pounds, he’s of slighter frame than the typical big league starter but has started at least 23 games and topped 140 innings in each of the past four seasons. That includes a career-high 160 2/3 innings with the Dragons in 2023.
This past season, Ogasawara tossed 144 1/3 innings and notched a solid 3.12 ERA with an outstanding 3.7% walk rate — the best mark of his career. Unfortunately, that pinpoint command came with a career-worst 13.6% strikeout rate that will limit Ogasawara’s appeal. To his credit, Ogasawara has missed far more bats in the past, punching out 24% of opponents as recently as 2022 and fanning 20.1% of opponents in 2023. In both instances, he had higher but nevertheless strong walk rates (6.7% and 6.1%, respectively).
Video of Ogasawara reveals a pitcher who sits in the 91-93 mph range with his four-seamer, complementing the pitch with a low-80s changeup and a slow knuckle curve that sits in the low 70s. Neither Ogasawara’s frame nor velocity stand out, but both are relatively comparable to those of 5’10”, 175-pound Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga. Ogasawara’s camp may try to make that comparison, but Imanaga consistently posted lower earned run averages and far superior strikeout rates in NPB (29.5% in his final season with the BayStars). That said, Ogasawara is three years younger than Imanaga was at the time of posting. A multi-year deal seems plausible, though likely not at the same levels as Imanaga’s $53MM guarantee (which can grow to $79MM based on club/player options).
For those in need of a reminder or an introduction to the NPB/MLB posting system, NPB clubs are allowed to “post” players for MLB teams to bid on prior to those players reaching free agency for the first time (nine years of service, under NPB rules). Any major league team can negotiate with the player and his representatives to negotiate a contract for any amount — provided the player is at least 25 years old and has at least six seasons of professional experience. (Players under 25 and/or with fewer than six years of experience are deemed “amateurs” by MLB and restricted to minor league deals and hard-capped signing bonuses.)
The posting window lasts 45 days but can reach a conclusion earlier, depending on when the player in question strikes a deal to his liking. In addition to paying the player the agreed-upon guarantees in the contract, the MLB team will also be on the hook for a release fee to the player’s former team. That fee is equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. Contractual factors like club options, incentives based on innings/plate appearances, awards bonuses, etc. are all subject to being included in the release fee as well, once those earnings are unlocked.
Shinnosuke Ogasawara To Request Posting For MLB Teams
Left-hander Shinnosuke Ogasawara is looking to move to the majors, and as per a report from Yahoo Sports Japan (Japanese language link), he’ll ask the Chunichi Dragons to make him available to MLB teams via the posting system this offseason. The Yakyu Cosmopolitan also reported earlier this year that Ogasawara was aiming to pitch for a big league team in 2025, and MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reported (via X) back in April that Major League scouts were watching Ogasawara pitch in Japan.
The southpaw celebrates his 27th birthday on Tuesday, and he has appeared with the Dragons in each of the last nine Nippon Professional Baseball seasons. However, since he is short of nine full years of NPB service time, Ogasawara will need to be posted in order to make the move to North American baseball.
To recap the posting system, any team that signs Ogasawara will have to pay a separate posting fee to the Dragons that is contingent on the size of the contract — the 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. If Ogasawara is posted, Major League teams will have 45 days to reach an agreement with the left-hander. If no deal is reached within that window of time, Ogasawara will return to the Dragons for the 2025 NPB season.
Ogasawara has a 3.66 ERA over 1095 career innings for the Dragons, and he has tossed at least 141 1/3 innings in each of the last four seasons. In 2024, he had a 2.99 ERA in 141 1/3 frames, with a very impressive 3.42% walk rate but also only a 13.87% strikeout rate. While Ogasawara’s control has only been getting better during his NPB career, he has never been a big strikeout pitcher, and this season’s low rate of missed bats will certainly stand out as a potential red flag to big league evaluators.
It remains to be seen how highly Ogasawara will be judged by MLB teams, though he’ll be one of the youngest rotation candidates available in this year’s free agent market. With scouts already keeping an eye on his work for the Dragons, Ogasawara figures to draw some attention should the Dragons decide to post him.
Tomoyuki Sugano Expected To Sign With MLB Team This Offseason
Longtime Nippon Professional Baseball star Tomoyuki Sugano is planning to sign with an MLB team this offseason, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan. After 12 years in NPB, Sugano more than meets the requirements (nine years of NPB service) to qualify for international free agency, so he will not be subject to the rules of the posting system.
Sugano, soon to be 35, is an eight-time NPB All-Star, two-time Central League MVP, and two-time winner of the Eiji Sawamura Award, given out annually to the best starting pitcher in NPB. After collecting his second MVP trophy in 2020, he was posted for MLB clubs and drew interest from several teams, including the Giants, Mets, Red Sox, Padres, Blue Jays, and Rangers. However, he did not sign before the deadline, choosing instead to re-up with the Yomiuri Giants on a four-year, $40MM deal. His contract gave him the option to opt out after every season to pursue international opportunities, and following the first year of the deal, he he had enough NPB service time that he would not have been restricted by the posting system. Nevertheless, he decided to stay with the Giants throughout the length of the contract.
One reason Sugano may have decided not to pursue international free agency after the 2021, ’22, or ’23 seasons was his declining performance. He was outstanding in 2020, pitching to a 1.97 ERA with a 24.6% strikeout rate over 137.1 innings. However, he had ERAs of 3.19, 3.12, and 3.36 the following three years. His strikeout rates slowly declined, while his home run rates shot up. Moreover, injuries limited him to just 77.2 IP in 2023. His performance from 2021-23 wasn’t poor by any means, but it’s understandable why he chose not to sacrifice his guaranteed salary.
The 2024 season marked a return to dominance for the Sugano. Over 156.2 IP, he went 15-3 with a 1.67 ERA. His 18.3% strikeout rate was lower than it was at his peak – he struck out 24.2% of batters from 2016-20 – but he is finding success in new ways as an older pitcher. His 2.6% walk rate in 2024 was a career-best. His 6.94 strikeout-to-walk ratio was his best since 2016. In addition, he gave up only six home runs to the 608 batters he faced, 0.99% home run rate. That’s the lowest home run rate of his career, and significantly lower than his 2.91% home run rate from 2021-23. As a cherry on top, Sugano also threw three complete games this past season. He hadn’t thrown a single complete game since 2021.
Now that the four-year contract he signed during the 2020-21 offseason is up, Sugano has little reason not to give an MLB career another try. According to reporter Francys Romero, the veteran has hired VC Sports Group to represent him in free agency. The starting pitching market will feature plenty of big names this offseason, including Corbin Burnes, Yusei Kikuchi, Max Fried, Jack Flaherty, and likely Blake Snell, who has a player option for 2025. Considering his age, Sugano won’t be looking for a long-term contract, so he could represent an interesting alternative for a team that wants to add a potential top-flight starting pitcher on a shorter deal.
Marwin González Retires
Former big league player Marwin González announced he is retiring, through a press release from the Orix Buffaloes of Nippon Professional Baseball, the club he’s played with for the past two years. Yahoo Japan had reported on his retirement plans prior to the official announcement.
“After two amazing years in Japan, it’s time for me to say goodbye,” González says in his statement. “I’m incredibly grateful to my teammates, coaches, and fans for welcoming me with open arms. Despite the language barrier, we formed a bond with ease, making every moment on the field special. Playing here has been a life-changing experience, especially getting to share it with my family. Japan will always hold a special place in our hearts. I’m filled with gratitude for the opportunity, the memories, and the friendships made along the way. Thank you for welcoming me into your world and for the endless support. You have all my respect. Arigatou gozaimasu.”
González, now 35, got his professional start when the Cubs signed him as an international amateur out of Venezuela and he made his minor league debut in 2006. In the 2011 Rule 5 draft, the Astros had the first pick since they were rebuilding at that time and lost 106 games that year. They used that first pick to take Rhiner Cruz from the Mets but also apparently had their eye on González. With the 23rd pick of the draft, the Red Sox took González and promptly flipped him to the Astros for Marco Duarte.
The second of those pickups ended up being far more impactful for the franchise, as Cruz tossed just 76 1/3 innings for the Astros, posting a 5.31 earned run average over the 2012 and 2013 campaigns before going into journeyman mode for the rest of his career.
González would eventually become a solid multi-positional piece for the Astros, though not right away. In 441 plate appearances over 2012 and 2013, he hit just .227/.266/.323. That production translated to a 59 wRC+, indicating he was 41% below league average. The Astros didn’t seem to mind much as they were still quite bad at that time, losing 107 and 111 games in those two seasons respectively. González was at least able to provide them defensively versatility, spending time at second base, third base and shortstop.
He was able to break out in 2014, hitting .277/.327/.400 for a wRC+ of 110. He also added first base and outfield to his defensive repertoire that year. He would continue to produce in roughly similar fashion in following seasons as the Astros emerged from their rebuild and became the perennial powerhouse that they still are today.
From 2014 to 2018, González got into 643 games for the Astros and stepped to the plate 2,265 times. He slashed .271/.328/.438 in that time for a 111 wRC+ while bouncing all around the diamond, playing everywhere except the battery.
He also got into 30 postseason games in that time, including 18 as part of the 2017 club’s World Series run, though that title is now mired in controversy with the revelation of Houston’s cheating scandal. Data from the scandal points to González as one of the biggest users of the trashcan-banging scheme. His 144 wRC+ and 4.4 wins above replacement from FanGraphs that year are both easily the bests of his career, as he otherwise never topped 111 wRC+ or 1.8 fWAR. Though he later apologized for the team’s actions, the first position player on the club to do so.
He reached free agency after 2018 and signed a two-year, $21MM deal with the Twins going into 2019. His bat dipped a bit in his first year in Minnesota, at least relative to the league. His .264/.322/.414 batting line was fairly similar to his previous five years, but 2019 was the “juiced ball” season with huge offensive numbers around the league, so González’s production led to a 94 wRC+. It fell more significantly in the shortened 2020 campaign, with González slashing .211/.286/.320.
Going into 2021, the Red Sox gave him a $3MM deal, hoping that his most recent performance was just a small sample blip in the odd circumstances of the pandemic. Unfortunately, that bet didn’t pan out, as González hit .202/.281/.285 before being released in August. He then returned to the Astros but hit just .176/.222/.441 in 14 games for them down the stretch. He signed a minor league deal with the Yankees going into 2022 and got into 86 games for that club, but hit .185/.255/.321 in those.
After three consecutive rough seasons in the majors, he headed overseas. He signed with the Buffaloes going into 2023 on a deal that paid him $1.5MM. He hit .217/.266/.385 in 84 games for that club last year. He returned for 2024 but dealt with injuries and only got into 23 games, per Yakyu Cosmopolitan on X.
González will primarily be remembered for that strong run with the Astros, which will provide fond memories to some fans while others will dismiss his accomplishments due to his involvement in the electronic sign-stealing scheme.
Regardless of how one feels about that, the record books have him with 3,882 plate appearances in 1,139 major league games. He collected 888 hits, including 183 doubles and 107 home runs. He scored 420 runs and drove in 415. He slashed .252/.310/.399 for a wRC+ of 94. FanGraphs considered him to have been worth 10.9 wins above replacement while Baseball Reference credits him with 14.3 WAR. B-Ref lists his major league earnings at just over $37MM, with González likely getting that up to around $40MM with the money he made in Japan. MLBTR salutes him on his unique career and wishes him the best in whatever comes next.
Nori Aoki To Retire At NPB Season’s End
Former big league outfielder and current member of Nippon Professional Baseball’s Yakult Swallows Nori Aoki is set to retire following the 2024 campaign, per an announcement from the Swallows yesterday (hat tip to The Yomiuri Shimbun). Aoki, 42, spent parts of six seasons in the majors in addition to a lengthy career in Japan.
Aoki’s career first began with the Swallows back in 2004 when he debuted at the age of 22. He made it into just ten games with Yakult that year, going 3-for-15 at the plate with a walk, a stolen base, and six strikeouts. That tiny sample size did nothing to suggest what Aoki would go on to do in his first full season with the club, however, as he slashed an excellent .344/.387/.417 in 144 games during the 2005 season, becoming just the second player in NPB history (after Ichiro Suzuki) to collect 200 hits in a single season.
He improved to even greater heights throughout his mid-20s, slashing 15-to-20 homer power to go along with fantastic contact and baserunning skills. As his plate discpline developed, he even began to walk more than he struck out, leading to a dominant stretch of seasons from 2007 to 2010 where he walked at a 10.6% clip against a minuscule 9.8% strikeout rate in addition to his aforementioned solid power and impressive base-stealing abilities, and even crossed the 200-hit barrier for a second time in 2010 to become the only NPB player in history to achieve the feat twice.
Given the excellence he had demonstrated throughout his time with the Swallows, it was hardly a surprise when he was quickly snapped up by the Brewers on a two-year deal after being posted for major league clubs prior to the 2012 season. In Milwaukee, Aoki was a slightly above average hitter with a solid .287/.355/.399 slash line. While he only hit a combined 18 home runs over his two seasons with the Brewers, he swiped 50 bags while hitting 57 doubles and 7 triples in that same period. That was a strong enough performance for Milwaukee brass to pick up Aoki’s club option for the 2014 season, but he did not last the offseason with the club and was swapped to the Royals in a deal that brought lefty Will Smith to the Brewers.
After departing the Brewers, Aoki wouldn’t stick around with an MLB club for more than a season at the time for the rest of his time in stateside ball. After acting as the regular right fielder in Kansas City for the club’s AL pennant-winning 2014 season, Aoki departed in free agency to sign with the Giants but was limited to just 93 games when he suffered a broken leg and a concussion in two separate hit-by-pitch incidents. Aoki then signed a one-year deal with the Mariners in 2016 but began to show some signs of decline, notably stealing only seven bases in sixteen attempts with the worst strikeout and walk numbers of his MLB career, though he did display his best power numbers since his rookie 2012 campaign with the Brewers.
Aoki’s final season in the big leagues came back in 2017 and saw him change uniforms several times. The veteran outfielder was claimed off waivers from the Mariners by the Astros during the 2016-17 offseason. Aoki struggled somewhat through 70 games with Houston, however, and ended up traded to the Blue Jays at the deadline that year alongside Teoscar Hernandez in a deal that brought Francisco Liriano to Houston. Aoki managed to catch fire down the stretch, however, and while his playing time was further split between the Blue Jays and Mets over the final two months of the season he slashed .281/.294/.594 for Toronto in August before slashing .284/.371/.373 in Queens that September.
Following the end of his MLB career, Aoki returned home to the Swallows and has played for the club in each of the past seven seasons. Now 42, the veteran is the league’s oldest active player and has collected more than 7,000 plate appearances with a .313/.392/.445 slash line in 1,713 NPB games. Between NPB and MLB play, Aoki has stepped up to the plate more than 10,000 times with 2,765 hits, 470 doubles, 51 triples, 179 homers and 279 stolen bases. We at MLBTR congratulate Aoki on a fine career and wish him all the best in his post-playing pursuits.
Latest On Roki Sasaki’s Potential Posting
Roki Sasaki would be one of the most talented players in the upcoming free agent class if he were available. The 6’2″ right-hander has been a star in Japan for the past four seasons. He is widely regarded as one of the best, if not the best, pitchers currently in NPB. Sasaki won’t turn 23 until November and would be a top target for any number of major league clubs.
His availability is by no means guaranteed. While MLB teams have kept a close eye on Sasaki’s status for years, he doesn’t have the ability to force his way to the majors anytime soon. As with all NPB players, he’d need nine years of service time in Japan before he qualifies for international free agency. The only way for Sasaki to make the jump to the majors earlier than that is with the cooperation of the Chiba Lotte Marines, his NPB club.
The Marines could agree to make Sasaki available to MLB teams via the posting system. The star pitcher asked them to do just that last offseason; the team declined the request, leaving Sasaki without much of a choice but to return for his fourth full season there. It seems the way that process unfolded left the pitcher displeased.
Jeff Passan of ESPN writes that Sasaki’s relationship with the Marines is damaged by the team’s denial of his posting request. According to Passan, Sasaki is likely to renew his request for the Marines to post him during the upcoming offseason. Yet it’s entirely possible — perhaps likely — that the team will decline to make him available yet again.
There isn’t much of an incentive for the Marines to let Sasaki walk this winter. Their only potential benefit would be a reputational boost of accommodating the wish of their star player to test himself against MLB hitters. The details of the posting system and MLB’s international bonus pool rules make it far more advantageous for the Marines to hold Sasaki past his 25th birthday.
International players who are under the age of 25 are considered amateurs and are subject to bonus pool restrictions. They are technically only allowed to sign minor league contracts (although an MLB team would surely select Sasaki onto the major league roster by the start of the season).
The far bigger drawback is that teams have a hard cap on spending on international amateurs. While the precise amount varies by team, Baseball America’s Ben Badler reported in April that next year’s bonus pool allotments top out at roughly $7.56MM. Teams can tack on another few million dollars via trade, but it’s a marginal difference. Even if a team maxed out its bonus pool and offered the highest amount to Sasaki (punting the chance to sign any other amateurs of significance for the year), his signing bonus would land somewhere in the $11MM range.
That’s obviously nowhere near the open market value for arguably the best pitcher in Japan. The cases of Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are illustrative. Ohtani made the jump to MLB at age 23 and was subject to the bonus pool limitations. He signed with the Angels in 2017 for $2.3MM. Yamamoto, who waited until he was 25 to come over, signed a $325MM contract last offseason that represented the largest deal ever for a free agent pitcher. The bonus pool restrictions very likely made a difference of hundreds of millions of dollars.
Sasaki seems willing to live with those constraints to get to the majors as quickly as possible. That doesn’t mean the Marines are willing to do the same. The posting agreement between MLB and Nippon Professional Baseball ties the NPB team’s compensation to the value of the free agent contract. An MLB team signing a posted player pays a fee to the Japanese team on top of what goes to the player. The fee is a fixed amount calculated as 20% of a deal’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of further spending.
Yamamoto’s $325MM deal came with a windfall for his former team, the Orix Buffaloes. The Dodgers paid the Buffaloes $50.625MM to release him from his contract. If the Marines were to let Sasaki walk this winter, they’d get a small fraction of that amount because of the bonus restrictions. A $10MM bonus for Sasaki would come with a $2MM posting fee for the Marines. That’s meager compensation for parting ways with their 23-year-old ace.
That could all point to the Marines holding Sasaki for two more years. If the team waits to make him available until the 2026-27 offseason, there’d be no limit on his signing bonus — and therefore no indirect cap on the posting fee that the team could receive. That’d presumably only further irritate Sasaki, but it doesn’t seem the pitcher has any leverage to force the team’s hand.
Ohtani making the jump to the majors in 2017-18 shows that it isn’t impossible for a top Japanese free agent to leave early in his posting window. Yet there are a few distinctions between Ohtani’s case and the situation in which Sasaki finds himself.
Jorge Castillo and Jack Harris wrote in the Los Angeles Times last winter that Ohtani had a stipulation in his contract with his NPB team, the Nippon-Ham Fighters, that allowed him to enter the posting system at any time. While Castillo and Harris wrote at the time that “Sasaki is thought to also have that clause in his deal” with the Marines, that doesn’t appear to be the case. Passan stated this morning that “Lotte controls the entire process and can keep Sasaki through the 2026 season if it so desires.” That the Marines were able to prevent Sasaki from being posted last winter — ostensibly against his wishes and in a manner that strained his relationship with the team — points to the club indeed having the final say.
The posting system was also different at the time in which Ohtani came over. While the posting fee is now strictly tied to the signing bonus amount, that was not the case in 2017. The previous posting system allowed an NPB team to name a price up to $20MM, independent of the bonus amount, which they’d require to grant the player permission to move to MLB. The Fighters established the maximum $20MM price, which the Angels happily paid to get Ohtani for a modest bonus. The Marines don’t have that option, so the Fighters collected a posting fee that is 10 times (or more) what Chiba Lotte would receive for Sasaki next winter.
That presents a significant impediment to Sasaki joining a major league team before 2027. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote a couple weeks ago that some MLB executives felt the pitcher might prefer to stay in Japan for another season, though it seems the Marines are the far bigger obstacle.
Lotte does not appear to be under any contractual pressure to let him leave within the next two years. Sasaki is nowhere close to the nine-year threshold for international free agency, nor the eight-year threshold that would permit him to sign with another NPB club. The NPB Players Association has begun an effort to reduce the free agency cutoffs, but that’s an ambitious collective bargaining effort that isn’t likely to be achieved in the next few months.
Sasaki has a 2.01 earned run average in 380 2/3 career innings at Japan’s top level. This hasn’t been his best season, as he carries a personal-worst 2.45 ERA through 77 frames and missed some time with arm discomfort. He nevertheless remains an incredible talent. He has struck out nearly a third of opponents in his career and has fanned 28.7% of batters faced this season. Scouts credit him with a triple-digit fastball and a potential 70-grade (plus-plus) splitter.
He’s perhaps most famous for his stretch of dominance in April 2022, when he followed up a 19-strikeout perfect game with another eight perfect innings before finally giving up a single to start the ninth. He struck out 11 over 7 2/3 innings of four-run ball for Japan’s championship team in the 2023 World Baseball Classic.
NPB Players Pushing For Earlier Free Agency
Just like their counterparts in Major League Baseball, the players in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball have various ongoing labor battles in the context of their league. Evan Drellich of The Athletic took an extensive look at some of the current discussion topics in a column published this morning.
Some of the battles involves things like endorsement rights but fans of MLB will likely be most interested to know that the players are fighting for earlier free agency, which could allow some of them to make the move to North America sooner.
As laid out by Drellich, NPB players have two different forms of free agency. A player can achieve domestic free agency after seven or eight years in the league, depending on whether the player was drafted out of high school or college. Unlocking that right gives a player the ability to sign with another NPB club. But getting full international free agency, allowing a player to sign with an MLB club, takes nine years.
The Japan Professional Baseball Players Association is trying to lower both of those numbers to six years, the same amount of service time that MLB players need for free agency. One source tells Drellich that the league was willing to offer a reduction in domestic free agency but not international free agency, though the full details of that offer aren’t publicly known.
NPB players are often made available to MLB clubs before those nine years are up via the posting system. Under that system, the player’s NPB club posts them for MLB clubs, opening a 45-day negotiating window. If a player signs with an MLB club in that time, the NPB club gets a posting fee, which is relative to the size of the contract the player got from the MLB club. Bigger deals naturally lead to bigger posting fees. In an extreme example, when the Dodgers signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a 12-year, $325MM deal this offseason, they also had to pay almost $51MM to the Orix Buffaloes, the NPB team that posted him.
Although Yamamoto was able to come over to the majors at the relatively young age of 25, other pitchers often have to wait longer. Shota Imanaga, for example, was just posted in the most recent offseason and signed with the Cubs. He had pitched in parts of eight NPB seasons through 2023 but still didn’t have full international free agency. He is now in his debut MLB season at the age of 30.
There’s also no guarantee that a player will be made available via the posting system. Kodai Senga had to reach full international free agency before coming to the majors because his NPB club, the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks, has a team policy against posting their players. Senga signed with the Mets going into 2023, which was his age-30 season.
If the rules were to change, future players in a similar position to Imanaga or Senga could make the move to North America a few years earlier. That would increase their earning power in a couple of ways. Teams clearly value youth, as shown in the massive guarantee that Yamamoto got. Senga and Imanaga got $75MM and $53MM guarantees, respectively. Part of that may be due to the Dodgers valuing Yamamoto as more talented, but it’s also fair to assume that he wouldn’t have got as much money if he were heading into his age-30 season like Senga and Imanaga.
Beyond the age factor, if a player is able to reach full free agency at a young age, the lack of a posting fee could mean more money going directly to the player. The Cubs were willing to give Imanaga a $53MM guarantee but also paid $9.825MM to the Yokohama BayStars, his NPB club. Theoretically, that willingness to spend north of $60MM on Imanaga could have seen that amount of money go straight to him if he were a free agent, as opposed to the BayStars getting a big cut.
There’s nothing in Drellich’s article to suggest that changes are coming to the system that would affect younger players such as Roki Sasaki. Yamamoto was made available to MLB clubs just after turning 25, a notable age since that is when international players are no longer considered “amateurs” under MLB rules. Before turning 25, players are subject to the international bonus pool system, where each team gets roughly $4-8MM to spend on player bonuses. Broadly speaking, the small-market teams get bigger pools and the large-market clubs get smaller ones.
If a player wants to make the move before turning 25, they are therefore limited to a relatively modest bonus. For example, Shohei Ohtani left the NPB and signed with the Angels prior to his age-23 season. He received only a $2.3MM signing bonus at that time, obviously far less than what Yamamoto got by waiting until his 25th birthday.
Sasaki, who doesn’t turn 23 until November, may be in a similar boat to Ohtani. He turns 23 in November and there have been rumors that he may be posted this offseason. If that comes to pass, he would only be able to secure a small signing bonus of a few million bucks and there’s nothing to suggest that is changing.
Whether Sasaki is posted this winter or not is therefore another matter, but it could still be a notable change if it the JPBPA is successful in changing the free agency rules. In future, players as talented as Imanaga or Senga could have the chance to come over to Major League Baseball a few years earlier than under the current system, which could be a nice development both for those players and fans who want to see the best players competing against each other in North America.
It’s perhaps due to the constraints of the current system that another young Japanese player, Rintaro Sasaki, chose to play college ball in the United States rather than enter the NPB draft. While NPB clubs may not be excited about losing their control over players, they may also recognize that loosening the reins could reduce the chances of other players skipping the NPB entirely.
Whether the JPBPA will be successful remains to be seen. The system is not exactly analogous to the MLB-MLBPA dynamic. As laid out by Drellich, the collective bargaining agreement doesn’t have a set time limit like in North America, rather a rolling and ongoing negotiation. It’s also a complicated legal matter involving Japanese antitrust laws, with JPBPA set to file a challenge to the NPB’s reserve system at some point this year. Fans interested in getting into all the nitty-gritty details of the negotiations are encouraged to read the piece in full.