Kyle Keller Re-Signs With NPB’s Yomiuri Giants
Right-hander Kyle Keller has re-signed with the Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball, MLBTR has learned. Keller’s new contract is a one-year deal that includes a mutual option for the 2026 season, though specific financial terms remain unclear.
Keller, 31, was an 18th-round pick by Miami back in 2015 and made his big league debut with the club back in 2019. He ultimately spent three years in the majors with the Marlins, Angels, and Pirates. He struggled through 46 1/3 big league innings during that time with a 5.83 ERA and 7.00 FIP. While he struck out opponents at a decent 22.4% clip, he was held back by an untenable 14.7% walk rate that severely limited his effectiveness at the big league level. Those struggles in the big leagues led Keller to look overseas for his next opportunity, and he eventually signed with NPB’s Hanshin Tigers for the 2022 season.
The right-hander wound up acting as a prominent late-inning arm for the club over his two seasons with them. After dominating the Western League for the Tigers’ affiliate almost immediately, he found himself promoted to the Central League rather quickly and didn’t look back with a 3.31 ERA in 32 2/3 innings of work. Importantly, he showed far better command over his arsenal in NPB play with a fantastic 35.9% strikeout rate against a microscopic 3.9% walk rate during his first year in the Central League. His peripherals weren’t quite as stellar in his second season with the Tigers, as his 23.7% strikeout rate and 13.6% walk rate were more reminiscent of his time in the big leagues than anything else. That didn’t stop him from posting strong results, however, as he pitched to a 1.71 ERA in 26 1/3 innings of work.
Those strong results earned Keller interest both in NPB and from MLB clubs last winter, and he ultimately settled on a third season in NPB as he landed with the Yomiuri Giants on a one-year deal last winter. His 2024 season turned out to be the best of his NPB career so far as he dominated with a 1.53 ERA in 47 innings of work while flashing strong peripherals. Keller struck out an excellent 29.5% of opponents for the Giants last year, while his walk rate sat at a more manageable 10.4%. That combination of excellent results and solid peripherals backing the performance up was evidently enough convince the Giants to retain Keller for at least the 2025 season.
Given the recent MLB interest he’s received and his strong season last year, if Keller is able to turn in a similarly strong campaign at age-32 next year it wouldn’t be hard to imagine him exploring a return to stateside ball at some point in the future as other successful big league relievers like Robert Suarez have done in the past.
Roki Sasaki Expected To Be Posted During Winter Meetings
Roki Sasaki‘s official arrival into the free agent market will likely take place during baseball’s Winter Meetings, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that the star right-hander is expected to be posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines on Tuesday. Once posted, Major League teams have 45 days to negotiate with Sasaki, and he’ll return to the Marines for the 2025 Nippon Professional Baseball season if no deal is reached.
It is seen as a virtual lock that Sasaki will be coming to MLB, given how the 23-year-old is so eager to pitch in the big leagues that he is leaving a fortune on the table by coming to North America so early in his career. Since Sasaki is an international free agent who is less than 25 years old, he can only be signed using funds from a team’s international bonus pool.
The timing of the posting is noteworthy, as Sasaki’s 45-day negotiating window will stretch beyond January 15 and the opening of the 2025 international signing period. Since the 2024 period ends on December 15 and teams have already basically spent everything in their budgets, it was widely expected that Sasaki will wait until after January 15 to sign so he could land at least a little more money. Unofficially, teams have had deals in place with international prospects for years in advance of the 2025 int’l window, yet if necessary, it is expected that some teams will walk away from these under-the-table deals if it means giving their entire 2025 bonus pool over to Sasaki.
However, as Sasaki’s early foray to the big leagues indicates, money is far from his chief motivator. Pitching in Major League Baseball will help Sasaki on the endorsement front, of course, but the circumstances of his arrival creates one of the more interesting free agent cases in recent years — arguably the most interesting since Shohei Ohtani‘s arrival in the 2017-18 offseason, as Ohtani also came to the majors in advance of his age-23 season.
Though the financial playing field is fairly level for all 30 teams to make a play for Sasaki’s services, the big-spending Dodgers have long been seen a favorite to sign the right-hander, to the point that agent Joel Wolfe vehemently denied rumors that Sasaki and the Dodgers had already worked out some kind of unofficial agreement. There’s obvious appeal for Sasaki in joining a championship team that already has such Japanese stars as Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the roster, though it isn’t known what exactly Sasaki is looking for in a Major League destination (geographic preferences, teams with a pre-existing link to Japanese baseball, smaller or larger markets, etc.). As such, it is easy to imagine Sasaki ending up with the Padres, Mets, Giants, Cubs, or any of the several other teams already known to have some interest in his services.
The Marines’ own financial return from Sasaki’s posting will be limited, as per the terms of the MLB/NPB posting system. In addition to paying Sasaki, a Major League team will have to pay the Marines an extra fee based on the amount of Sasaki’s contract — 20% of a deal’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of further spending. Since Sasaki’s deal is naturally limited by the size of bonus pools, the Marines stand to gain less than $2MM for one of Japan’s top pitchers.
Over 394 2/3 career innings with the Marines, Sasaki has a 2.10 ERA, 32.73% strikeout rate, and 5.7% walk rate. His devastating splitter and high-90s (topping 100mph in past seasons) have left NPB batters fooled, most memorably during a perfect game in 2022 that saw Sasaki record 13 straight strikeouts and 19 strikeouts overall. Sasaki then gained worldwide attention by almost throwing another perfect game in his next start, as he tossed eight perfect innings before being removed due to concerns over his pitch count (102 pitches).
The relative lack of mileage on Sasaki’s arm is both a boon for MLB teams eager to land such a talented pitcher at such a young age, and a bit of a concern about a possible lack of durability. Sasaki’s 129 1/3 innings in 2022 remains his career high, and his 2024 season was limited to 111 innings due to a torn oblique and some type of injury to his right arm. That said, these factors have done nothing to limit the hype on Sasaki, and his arrival in Major League Baseball lines up as one of the key stories of the offseason.
NPB’s Hanshin Tigers Post Koyo Aoyagi For MLB Clubs
The Hanshin Tigers of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced last night that they’ve made right-hander Koyo Aoyagi available to major league teams via the posting system. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network tweets that MLB has approved the posting, which opens a 45-day window for the pitcher to sign with a big league team.
Aoyagi, who turns 31 next week, seems to project as a depth arm. While he has worked as a starting pitcher for the Tigers, Aoyagi throws from a sidearm slot that’s more commonly found in the bullpen. He’s coming off a pedestrian season which he split almost evenly between the Tigers and their minor league affiliate. Aoyagi made 12 starts at Japan’s top level and pitched 11 times in the minors.
During his work at the highest level, he turned in a 3.69 ERA across 61 innings. His 13% strikeout rate would be nearly 10 percentage points below the MLB average. He showed decent but not exceptional control, walking 7.8% of batters faced. His career track record is a bit more impressive. He owns a 3.08 ERA with a 17.1% strikeout percentage across nine NPB campaigns. This was his second consecutive middling season, though. Aoyagi was tagged for a 4.57 ERA across 100 1/3 innings for the Tigers in 2023.
The 5’11” hurler pitched for Japan at the 2020 Olympics (held in Tokyo a year late as a result of the pandemic). Japan went 5-0 and won the gold medal, though Aoyagi was tagged for five runs in 1 2/3 innings across two appearances. He did not make the nation’s World Baseball Classic roster two years later.
Assuming the posting window officially opened today, Aoyagi will have until January 17 to sign with an MLB team. If he doesn’t find an offer to his liking, he’d remain with the Tigers. Aoyagi’s numbers suggest he could be limited to a minor league deal. If he signs with an MLB team, that club would also owe a release fee to the Hanshin Tigers. The fee is proportional to the size of the contract. In the very likely event that he signs for $25MM or less, the posting fee would be 20% of the guarantee.
Tayron Guerrero Signs With NPB’s Chiba Lotte Marines
The Chiba Lotte Marines of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced that they have signed right-hander Tayron Guerrero. Per reporter Francys Romero (X link), Guerrero will make a salary of $600K next year.
It’s a bit of a homecoming for Guerrero, 34 in January, as he also pitched for the Marines in 2022. He was in affiliated ball for over a decade prior to that but was only able to throw 106 major league innings. Splitting time between the Padres and Marlins, he posted a 5.77 earned run average from 2016 to 2019.
He wasn’t able to crack the big leagues in 2020 or 2021 so he headed to Japan in 2022 and had a nice season with the Marines. He tossed 46 innings over 49 appearances with a 3.52 ERA, 32.5% strikeout rate and 10.3% walk rate.
He came back to North America after that showing, signing a minor league deal with the Reds going into 2023. He struggled badly for Triple-A Louisville, with an 11.51 ERA over his 20 appearances, walking more batters than he struck out. He was released in June and then signed with the Diablos Rojos of the Mexican League. A 1.17 ERA over his eight appearances there was apparently enough for him to get a minor league deal with the Angels for the 2024 season.
He made 30 appearances at Triple-A Reno this year, in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. His 5.73 ERA doesn’t look great but his 20.6% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 44% ground ball rate were all solid enough, leading to a 3.47 FIP.
If Guerrero stayed in North America, he surely would have been limited to minor league offers and would have had to fight his way to the big leagues. By returning to Japan, he has locked in a notable salary just a bit below next year’s MLB minimum, which will be $760K.
NPB’s Seibu Lions Sign Emmanuel Ramirez
The Seibu Lions of Nippon Professional Baseball announced (X link) that they have signed right-hander Emmanuel Ramirez for the 2025 season. Ramirez hit the open market earlier this month after he was released by the Blue Jays.
2024 marked Ramirez’s twelfth season in pro ball, and the 30-year-old’s long road to the majors finally reached its destination when he appeared in 15 games out of the Marlins’ bullpen. Ramirez posted a 6.97 ERA in his first 20 2/3 innings of big league work, but with a much more respectable 3.83 SIERA in that small sample size, as he was hampered by an unusually low 54% strand rate.
The righty did allow three homers during his brief time in the majors, and keeping the ball in the park has been a consistent issue for Ramirez since the 2019 season when he was still a member of the Padres farm system. Ramirez played in San Diego’s organization from 2013-19, and after the pandemic canceled the 2020 minor league season, he has since bounced around for some minor league work with the Braves, Yankees, Marlins, and Blue Jays. The 2023 campaign saw Ramirez out of affiliated baseball altogether, as he pitched in the Mexican League.
Over 101 career Triple-A innings, Ramirez has a garish 7.22 ERA due in large part to 28 home runs allowed. He did improve on his career record with the Marlins’ Triple-A affiliate last season, as Ramirez limited the damage to five home runs in 40 2/3 innings while posting a 3.76 ERA, 30.5% strikeout rate, and 9.6% walk rate. This was enough for Ramirez to earn his MLB debut, but as part of the Marlins’ ever-churning roster mix, he found himself designated for assignment in September. Toronto claimed the right-hander on waivers but Ramirez didn’t see any big league action during his brief time with the Jays.
The 30-year-old Ramirez now heads overseas for a new opportunity with the Lions, and potentially a return to starting pitching. Ramirez has mostly worked as a reliever or swingman throughout his career, but did start 16 of his 17 games in the Mexican League, so he does have some recent rotation experience.
NPB’s Chunichi Dragons Sign Jason Vosler
The Chunichi Dragons of Nippon Professional Baseball have agreed to a deal with infielder Jason Vosler for the 2025 season, according to multiple reports out of Japan. Vosler elected minor league free agency at the end of the 2024 Major League campaign, which he spent as a member of the Mariners organization.
The majority of Vosler’s time with Seattle was spent at Triple-A Tacoma, where he hit .303/.371/.573 and 31 homers over 524 plate appearances for the Rainiers. Despite these impressive numbers, Vosler didn’t receive much playing time at the MLB level, as he only appeared in 10 games with the Mariners (hitting a much more modest .179/.233/.286 in 30 PA) in late July and early August. Seattle designated Vosler for assignment in September and then outrighted him off the 40-man roster.
Originally a 16th-round pick for the Cubs in the 2014 draft, Vosler broke into the big leagues with San Francisco in 2021, and his MLB resume consists of 107 total games with the Giants, Reds, and Mariners over the last four seasons. He had a strong .265/.342/.469 slash line in 111 PA with the Giants in 2022, as the platoon-heavy team gave the left-handed hitting Vosler a lot of looks against right-handed pitching. That burst of productivity was relatively short-lived, however, and Vosler has hit .207/.274/.395 in 288 PA against Major League pitching on the whole.
Vosler played mostly third base in his two seasons with the Giants and was largely a first baseman in his one year in Cincinnati. He has also made a handful of appearances at both corner outfield positions and both middle infield positions, and the 2024 season saw Vosler primarily work as a first baseman and right fielder in Tacoma.
It remains to be seen where Vosler will line up for the Dragons, but his versatility gives the NPB team some flexibility in deciding how they’ll utilize the 31-year-old. Since Vosler would’ve had to settle for another minor league contract with a North American team, the move to Japan will land him more guaranteed money and a new chapter in his 11-year pro career.
Manfred: Sasaki Unlikely To Sign Until 2025
Roki Sasaki is one of the offseason’s top stories. The Chiba Lotte Marines announced two weeks ago that they’d make the 6’2″ righty, who is widely viewed as the best pitcher in Japan, available to major league clubs via the posting system. While the Marines didn’t specify a timeline for the posting, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred confirmed this afternoon that Sasaki is not expected to sign until 2025 (link via Johnny Flores of the Athletic).
That doesn’t come as any kind of surprise. The 23-year-old Sasaki is classified as an amateur free agent — as are all players signing from a foreign league before their 25th birthday. That’s most notable because it caps Sasaki’s signing bonus to a few million dollars, a small fraction of his actual open market value. The amateur status is also relevant to the timing of his signing.
MLB permits teams to sign international amateur free agents at any point between January 15 and December 15. The vast majority of significant deals are inked on January 15. Players signing as teenagers out of Latin America usually reach verbal agreements with teams months or years in advance of the signing period. Those deals are typically finalized as soon as the period opens in mid-January.
As a result, teams have spent most or all of their bonus pools for 2024. Baseball America’s Ben Badler wrote last week that the Dodgers had the most remaining ’24 bonus space at roughly $2.5MM. By contrast, every team has between $5.1MM and $7.6MM in its pool for next year. If Sasaki were to sign before December 15, he’d be limiting himself to a small percentage on a bonus that is already capped. He’s not eligible to sign between December 15 and January 15, so he’ll wait until the opening of next year’s pool.
Of course, that presents a problem for players who have already reached verbal agreements that they expected the teams to finalize on January 15. The amateur bonus pool is hard capped. Teams can trade for bonus allotments to add a couple million dollars to their pools, but there’s a finite amount of money that MLB allows teams to spend. (Players who sign for $10K or less are exempt from the pool, but any prospect of note will sign for much more than that.)
Whichever team signs Sasaki will likely commit most or all of their pool to him. As a major league ready potential ace, he’s far more attractive to teams than even the most well-regarded teenage prospects in the class. The signing team will probably need to renege on verbal agreements with other players, who’d find themselves in flux as they look for other teams that have reached unofficial agreements with targets of their own.
If Sasaki waits into late January or February to sign, teams will need to weigh whether to finalize any commitments to other amateur players — which subtracts from the amount of money they could offer the NPB star. Badler’s piece is worth checking out in full, as he covers the trickle-down impacts that Sasaki’s free agency could have on players and trainers in Latin America. None of those are Sasaki’s concern. They’re unfortunate consequences of the system that was collectively bargained between MLB and the Players Association.
While Sasaki isn’t likely to sign before the middle of January, the posting process could begin earlier than that. A player posted by an NPB team has 45 days to sign with a major league club. The Marines could theoretically post Sasaki anytime from December 2 on to allow him to sign in the ’25 window. They’ll presumably wait at least into the middle of December so as not to force him to sign within a day or two of the opening of the signing period.
Sandro Fabian Reportedly Agrees To Three-Year Deal With NPB’s Hiroshima Toyo Carp
Outfielder Sandro Fabian has reportedly agreed to join the Hiroshima Toyo Carp of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, per details from Francys Romero and Mike Rodriguez (X links). It’s a three-year pact worth $5.8MM, plus $600K of incentives. Fabian was on the 40-man roster of the Texas Rangers, who have apparently received some release fee from the Carp to let Fabian go, though the exact value of that hasn’t been reported. Once this all becomes official, the Rangers’ 40-man roster count will drop from 39 to 38.
Fabian, 27 in March, was an international signing of the Giants out of the Dominican Republic back in 2014. Baseball America considered him one of the top prospects in that system from 2017 to 2020 as he performed well in the lower levels of the minors, but he struggled more as he climbed the ladder. His prospect stock dimmed and he reached minor league free agency after 2021, having not climbed higher than Double-A.
In each of the past three offseasons, he has signed a minor league deal with the Rangers. He did finally get to make his major league debut late in 2024, getting selected to the roster in the first week of September. He went hitless in five plate appearances over three games.
For the most part, Fabian has been upper level depth for the Rangers. He has taken 1,093 plate appearances in 265 games at the Triple-A level, keeping his strikeout rate down to 15.3% but only walking at a 6.9% clip. In the hitter-friendly environment of the Pacific Coast League, his .272/.332/.482 batting line over that time translates to a wRC+ of 95.
His grip on his roster spot was likely tenuous and he was probably looking at more time in a minor league depth role if he had stayed in North America. Even if he earned himself a regular big league job, it would have taken him three years to get enough service time to qualify for arbitration. By heading to Japan, he is leaving affiliated ball but jumping to a higher level of earning power far more quickly.
Perhaps that will lead to another MLB opportunity down the road. After three years with the Carp, Fabian will be heading into his age-30 season. If he flourishes overseas, he can look for a new deal that would allow him to return to North American ball.
MLBTR Podcast: Roki Sasaki, Cole’s Non-Opt-Out, And Cardinals Rumors
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- Roki Sasaki to be posted for MLB clubs (1:45)
- Gerrit Cole‘s weird non-opt-out situation with the Yankees (17:50)
- The Cardinals might trade Nolan Arenado but might keep Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray (24:20)
- The Braves and Angels swap Jorge Soler and Griffin Canning (33:05)
- The Dodgers are moving Mookie Betts back to the infield (41:50)
Check out our past episodes!
- Breaking Down The Top 50 Free Agents List – listen here
- The Mets’ Spending Power, Juan Soto Suitors, And The Rangers’ Payroll Limits – listen here
- The World Series, The White Sox Reportedly For Sale, And Tropicana Field – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
NPB’s Chiba Lotte Marines To Post Roki Sasaki For MLB Clubs
November 10: The previously unspecified arm injury that caused Sasaki to miss time in 2024 was reportedly “a bout with shoulder fatigue,” according to The Athletic’s Will Sammon. The young right-hander’s recent injury history is just about the only thing that could give potential suitors pause this offseason, but such a relatively minor ailment is unlikely to do much damage to his market.
November 9: Roki Sasaki is coming to MLB next season. His NPB team, the Chiba Lotte Marines, announced overnight (on X) that they intend to make their ace available via the posting system. They did not reveal a specific date when they’ll open the posting window. Sasaki will be represented by Wasserman, tweets Francys Romero.
The announcement opens one of the top storylines of the offseason. Sasaki, who turned 23 last week, is the best pitcher in Japan. He’s one of the most talented pitchers on the planet. It’s the second consecutive offseason in which MLB teams will compete for arguably NPB’s best pitcher. Unlike the Yoshinobu Yamamoto bidding, Sasaki’s earning power is capped at a few million dollars.
MLB classifies players who sign out of a foreign league before they turn 25 as amateurs. Those players can only sign a minor league contract and are subject to a hard-capped bonus limit. Whichever team signs Sasaki is allowed to add him to the MLB roster by Opening Day — he isn’t going to start the season in Triple-A even though his first contract will be a minor league deal — but he won’t be able to sign for huge money.
After he signs, Sasaki will be subject to the same six-year control window that applies to any player called up from the farm system. He’ll play the next three seasons on roughly league minimum salaries before going through arbitration three times. Sasaki would not return to the open market until the 2030-31 offseason. He would be eligible to sign an extension during his team control window, but MLB has the ability to block a contract that it deems a circumvention of the bonus pool limits. There’s no set criteria for what might cause MLB to intervene, but it’s safe to say that Sasaki won’t be signing a massive extension within a few weeks of agreeing to a modest signing bonus.
Yamamoto waited until his 25th birthday to avoid the bonus limit. That freed him to sign with the Dodgers for $325MM, the largest guarantee for a pitcher in history. Sasaki didn’t want to follow that path. He instead prioritized making the move to MLB as quickly as possible, though that required the cooperation of the Marines.
NPB players are not eligible for international free agency until they’ve accrued nine years of service time. Sasaki has pitched at Japan’s highest level for four years. He unsuccessfully pushed for the Marines to post him for MLB teams last offseason. He gets his wish this time around. There’s been speculation that Sasaki’s contract might’ve contained some kind of clause to force the team’s hand.
Whether out of contractual obligation or simply to honor the player’s wishes, the Marines will lose their ace for essentially nothing. The posting agreement between MLB and Nippon Professional Baseball ties the NPB team’s compensation to the value of the free agent contract. An MLB team signing a posted player pays a fee to the Japanese team on top of what goes to the player. The fee is a fixed amount calculated as 20% of a deal’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of further spending.
Yamamoto’s deal came with a windfall for his former team, the Orix Buffaloes. The Dodgers paid the Buffaloes $50.625MM to release him from his contract. The Marines will get a fraction of that. If Sasaki signs for $10MM — and there’s a decent chance his bonus will land below that — the team would receive a $2MM posting fee.
The Marines’ loss will be an MLB team’s gain. Evaluators project Sasaki as a top-of-the-rotation starter. He can push into the triple digits with his fastball and has a potentially lethal splitter. His fastball lost a bit of life this past season, though the pitch still sits in the upper 90s. Marquee’s Lance Brozdowski reports (YouTube link) that Sasaki averaged 97.1 MPH this year after sitting at 99 MPH in ’23. That’s well above average for an MLB starter despite trending in the wrong direction.
While the fastball velocity is eye-catching, evaluators suggest his low-90s splitter is his best pitch. He deploys a slider as his top breaking ball, and while that’s not as well regarded as the fastball-splitter combination, it’s a potential above-average offering. The Athletic’s Eno Sarris broke down Sasaki’s pitch mix in greater detail this week.
Writing for Baseball America in 2023, Kyle Glaser projected Sasaki as an ace who’d warrant the first overall pick if he were in the domestic amateur draft. Glaser ranked Sasaki as the most talented non-MLB player in the ’23 World Baseball Classic, one spot ahead of Yamamoto. Sasaki struck out 11 hitters over 7 2/3 innings of four-run ball for Japan’s championship team.
The 6’2″ hurler has posted dominant numbers on a rate basis in NPB. He has a career 2.10 earned run average in nearly 400 innings. This year’s 2.35 ERA was the highest of any of his four seasons. In a relative down year, Sasaki punched out nearly 29% of batters faced against a manageable 7.1% walk percentage.
To the extent there’s a knock against Sasaki, it’s his workload. He has yet to reach 130 innings in any season. He was limited to 111 frames this year and missed time midseason due to an unspecified injury in his throwing arm. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that he also suffered a torn oblique. The injury history is a concern when paired with his slight velocity dip, but it’s unlikely to dissuade teams from an all-out recruitment. The upside of getting a potential top-of-the-rotation arm far outweighs the minimal cost.
Passan writes that the Marines have not settled on a date when they’ll open the posting window. Whenever they officially post him, Sasaki has 45 days to decide where to sign. It’s possible that’ll carry well into the 2025 calendar. Major League Baseball’s signing periods for international amateurs run between January 15 and December 15 every year. Teams commit the vast majority of that money on 1/15, finalizing contracts that have been verbally agreed upon well in advance.
Sasaki may prefer to wait until the opening of next year’s signing window. Teams already have verbal agreements with amateur players — most of whom are signing out of Latin America at age 16 — for their 2025 bonus window. Clubs could renege on some of those unofficial agreements to reallocate money for Sasaki. Teams are also allowed to trade for international signing bonus space up to a point. A team can acquire up to 75% of its initial bonus pool allotment. A club that knows it won’t have a chance to land Sasaki may be willing to trade most of its bonus space to a team in pursuit of the Japanese star in exchange for other prospects or MLB help.
In April, Baseball America’s Ben Badler published a list of teams’ bonus allotments for the ’25 signing period. The Reds, Tigers, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, A’s, Mariners and Rays have the largest pools at $7.5555MM each. If one of those teams acquired another 75% via trade and devoted the entire allotment to Sasaki, his maximum signing bonus would be around $13.22MM.
He’ll almost certainly sign for far less. If Sasaki were prioritizing money, he’d have waited until he turned 25 and sought a deal that rivaled or beat Yamamoto’s. As was the case with Shohei Ohtani in 2017, Sasaki is leaving hundreds of millions of dollars on the table in the short term to get to MLB right away. All 30 teams will be on more or less even footing financially. His free agency will be about teams’ competitive outlooks, pitching development plans and geographic preferences.
There’s already ample speculation about the Dodgers as a landing spot. They’re certainly well positioned from a competitive and geographic perspective. Financial might isn’t a direct consideration for this free agent, though, and any team could fit Sasaki into the budget if he were genuinely open to all offers.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.