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Which 2022 Draft Picks Have Teams Gained And Lost From Qualifying Offer Free Agents

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Of the 14 free agents to receive qualifying offers this winter, nine have already figured out where they will be playing next season, leading to some noteworthy adjustments to the 2022 draft order.  For a refresher on the QO rules, you can check this list of what signing a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent would cost each team, or this list of what teams receive as compensation for losing a QO-rejecting free agent.

Or, for simplicity’s sake, you could just read this post right here as a quick summary of the extra picks gained and lost due to these signings.  First of all, four of the nine signed players don’t factor into the discussion, since they are back with their former teams — Brandon Belt accepted the Giants’ qualifying offer in the first place, while Raisel Iglesias re-signed with the Angels, Chris Taylor re-signed with the Dodgers, and Justin Verlander re-signed with the Astros.

For the five other signed QO free agents and the five unsigned QO free agents, here is the breakdown of what their former teams would receive as compensatory picks.  The specific order of the compensatory picks is based on the previous year’s record, so the team with the fewer wins would get the superior pick.

  • Extra pick after Round 1 of the draft: This is awarded to a team that receives revenue-sharing funds, and whose QO-rejecting free agent signs with another team for more than $50MM in guaranteed salary.  The Rockies and Reds would therefore each qualify if Trevor Story (Colorado) or Nick Castellanos (Cincinnati) signed for $50MM+.  Since the Reds had the better record between the two teams, the Rockies would pick 32nd overall and the Reds 33rd overall if both clubs indeed ended up in this same category.  If Story and/or Castellanos signed for less than $50MM, Colorado and/or Cincinnati would be in the next group…
  • Extra pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3: Four picks have already been allotted within this group, comprised of teams who don’t receive revenue sharing funds.  The Mets received an extra selection when Noah Syndergaard signed with the Angels, the Blue Jays received two picks when Marcus Semien signed with the Rangers and Robbie Ray signed with the Mariners, and the Red Sox got a pick when Eduardo Rodriguez signed with the Tigers.  Like Toronto, the Mets could also receive a second pick if Michael Conforto signed elsewhere.  The Braves (Freddie Freeman) and Astros (Carlos Correa) would also land in this category if their respective QO free agents left town.  The draft order of this sandwich round based on 2021 record would line up as Mets (77 wins), Braves (88 wins), Blue Jays (91 wins), Red Sox (92 wins), and Astros (95 wins).  For the moment, the four picks in this group represent the 75th-79th overall selections in the draft, though that specific order will be altered based on where the other QO players sign, or what other second-round picks might be surrendered as penalties for signing those free agents.
  • Extra pick after Round 4: For teams that lose a QO free agent but exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2021, their compensatory pick is pushed back to beyond the fourth round.  Therefore, this is where the Dodgers will make their extra pick in the wake of Corey Seager’s deal with the Rangers.

Moving on, here is what the four teams who have signed QO free agents had to give up in draft capital…

  • Second-highest 2022 draft pick, $500K in international signing pool money: The Angels didn’t receive revenue sharing funds, and didn’t exceed the luxury tax in 2021.  As a result, signing Syndergaard will cost the Angels their second-round draft selection and a chunk of their funds for the next international signing period.
  • Third-highest 2022 draft pick: The Mariners and Tigers fall into this category, as teams who received revenue sharing payments in 2021.  For Seattle, this is simply their third-round selection.  For Detroit, their “third-highest pick” won’t be determined until MLB establishes the order for this year’s Competitive Balance Draft.  Depending on which of the two CBD rounds the Tigers are drawn into, their cost for the Rodriguez contract could either be their second-rounder or their pick in Competitive Balance Round B.
  • Both their second AND third-highest 2022 draft picks, and $500K in international signing pool money: The Rangers splurged by signing both Seager and Semien, and thus faced twice the draft penalty (both their second-round and third-round picks) for landing a pair of QO free agents.  Texas would have faced the same penalty as the Angels if it had signed just one of Seager or Semien.
  • Second- and fifth-highest 2022 draft picks, $1MM in international signing pool money: The stiffest penalty is reserved for teams who exceeded the luxury tax threshold last season.  Therefore, only the Dodgers and Padres would have to give up multiple picks to sign a single QO free agent, which would surely influence any efforts on their part to pursue Correa, Freeman, Conforto, Story, or Castellanos.

AL West Notes: Angels, Thor, Seager, Semien, Rangers, Olson

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The Angels signed Noah Syndergaard earlier this week, a move that came about due to a very ardent pursuit by the front office.  Speaking with The Los Angeles Times’ Jack Harris, The Associated Press, and other reporters, Syndergaard said the Angels were the very first team to get in touch with him after the free agent period opened, and his own interest in Anaheim grew after a three-hour dinner with Angels GM Perry Minasian.  The executive presented detailed plans on several topics, including how the team would manage the right-hander’s innings in 2022, and some mechanical adjustments the Angels were looking to make based on their analysis of Syndergaard’s tape.  “It was a breath of fresh air to hear that, to know his baseball knowledge,” Syndergaard said.  “He was able to break down some of the flaws I had over the past couple years….I trust that what they saw, they’re going to be able to fix, and I’ll get back to my old self.”

Plenty of preparation went into the meeting on Minasian’s end, as he said “As far as man hours, the amount of work we’ve done, I don’t know if I’ve ever done more on an individual player.”  The Angels had to be sure that Syndergaard was fully recovered after missing essentially two full seasons due to Tommy John surgery rehab, and their offer also matched Syndergaard’s desire to re-enter the market next winter with what he hopes will be a full and healthy season under his belt.  Syndergaard said that while he initially expected to remain with the Mets, “I didn’t really hear from them all that much in the last two months from the end of the season until now.”  This lack of communication may have been the result of the Mets’ long search for a new front office boss, and Syndergaard indicated that the ever-ongoing drama surrounding the team influenced his decision to sign elsewhere.  “This is an important year for me.  This is kind of a make-or-break time for me.  I didn’t want to gamble on that kind of uncertainty that’s been going on with them,” the righty said.

More from around the AL West…

  • Members of the Rangers front office recently met with Corey Seager and Marcus Semien in California, The Dallas Morning News’ Evan Grant reports.  Texas was already known to have interest in both free agent shortstops, so the in-person meetings represent the next logical step in the pursuit, especially since the Rangers have also met face-to-face with another available shortstop in Trevor Story.  After five consecutive losing seasons, the Rangers are looking eager to return to contention, and are known to be willing to spend at the highest ends of the free agent market.  Since Seager, Semien, and Story all rejected qualifying offers, Texas would have to give up $500K in international bonus pool money and their second-highest pick in the 2022 draft as compensation — which is another sign of the Rangers’ aggression, considering that pick would be the third choice of the second round.
  • Unsurprisingly, the Athletics are putting a very high asking price on Matt Olson in any trade talks, as MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets the A’s are “shooting for the moon” in their demands.  It remains to be seen whether any team will line up on an Olson trade, and yet parting with a big trade package would probably be justifiable, considering Olson’s impressive track record.  Olson is the most prominent of what could be several Oakland trade candidates this winter, as the club looks to be cutting back on payroll.

Latest On Red Sox Pitching Targets

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The Red Sox are known to be looking for rotation help this winter, and the club has “had varying degrees of contact with virtually all of the top starters on the market,” The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes.  This includes reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray, who hadn’t previously been linked to the Sox on the rumor mill, though it naturally stands to reason that the Red Sox would have interest in such a prominent arm.

Given the wide net the Sox are casting in their pitching search, it isn’t known if Ray is necessarily at the top of Boston’s list of potential targets.  Signing Ray would come at a double cost — one of the biggest contracts given to any free agent this offseason, as well as a penalty of $500K reduction from Boston’s international draft pool and a second-round draft pick, since Ray rejected the Blue Jays’ qualifying offer.

The Red Sox might be willing to accept those penalties to sign a top-tier starter like Ray, however, as Speier notes that the team also had interest in another QO free agent in Justin Verlander.  “Talks never advanced” too far between the two sides before Verlander agreed to return to Houston on a two-year, $50MM pact, but if the Red Sox were open to surrendering a pick for a shorter-term addition like Verlander, it would stand to reason that they’d also be open to giving up a pick to add Ray on a longer-term commitment.  It should be noted that the Sox have some extra draft capital to work with next summer, as since Eduardo Rodriguez rejected Boston’s qualifying offer and then agreed to a deal with the Tigers, the Red Sox will receive an extra selection between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round.

As for other now-signed free agent hurlers, Speier writes that the Red Sox were one of the teams bidding on Andrew Heaney, and the left-hander was given a one-year offer “competitive with the $8.5MM he signed for with the Dodgers.”  Speier also notes that the Red Sox didn’t have interest in Noah Syndergaard, which runs contrary to a report from The New York Post’s Joel Sherman earlier this week that suggested Boston made an “aggressive” offer to Syndergaard before the righty signed with the Angels.

Steven Matz is a pitcher known to be of interest to the Red Sox, and it is possible Matz might decide on his next team relatively quickly.  According to Speier, Matz would prefer to have an agreement in place prior to the expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement on December 1, and the signing freeze that would come with a potential lockout on December 2.  Matz is hoping to get a deal done by Thanksgiving, and given the number of teams already known to have checked in on the southpaw, it certainly seems plausible that a deal could be reached this week.  Besides the Red Sox, Matz has been linked to the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Angels, plus the Blue Jays have continued to explore re-signing Matz for a longer term in Toronto.

Latest On Justin Verlander’s Market

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1:47pm: The White Sox are also showing “strong” interest in Verlander, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. They’re planning an “aggressive” offseason, per Nightengale, and hoping to kick things off with a successful courtship of Verlander. Of course, the South Siders’ spring facility is in Arizona, which isn’t ideal based on Verlander’s reported preferences, but that certainly doesn’t rule them out of the bidding entirely.

12:58pm: Verlander has both multi-year and one-year offers in hand, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link), adding that the right-hander could make a final decision as soon as this week.

11:47am: The Braves are also among the teams with interest in Verlander, tweets David O’Brien of The Athletic. Atlanta would align well with Verlander’s reported preference for an East Coast club with Spring Training in Florida, and their status as reigning World Series champions obviously helps when pursuing any older veteran prioritizing a contender. Of course, all those players inked sizable one-year deals, whereas Verlander may be seeking multiple guaranteed seasons.

The Braves had had few qualms about signing short-term veterans of this nature under under president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos — evidenced by recent short-term pickups of Cole Hamels, Charlie Morton and Josh Donaldson.

10:46am: Justin Verlander has until 5pm ET today to accept or reject a one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer (as do all other free agents who received a QO), but the widespread expectation is that he’ll reject and fully explore his options. That’s due in part to Astros owner Jim Crane saying last month that Verlander will be looking for a “contract of some length” in free agency, but it’s also due to what’s reported to be strong early interest in the future Hall of Famer.

Verlander held a showcase for teams earlier this month — a step that would seem unlikely were he simply planning to accept the Astros’ QO — and his reps at ISE Baseball have had the past 10 days to gauge interest from other clubs. Ken Rosenthal suggested on MLB Network this morning (video link) that early indications are Verlander would prefer to sign with a club that holds Spring Training in Florida, which meshes with Joel Sherman of the New York Post reporting that several interested teams believe Verlander prefers to play with an East Coast club.

Notably, Sherman adds that both the Red Sox and Blue Jays — each of whom hold Spring Training in Florida — made “aggressive” offers to another high-upside, short-term pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery: Noah Syndergaard. Peter Gammons tweeted yesterday that Syndergaard had multiple offers at or near the $21MM price point for which he agreed to join the Angels, including one approaching $25MM in value. It’s not expressly clear that the Jays or Red Sox offered $21MM+ for Syndergaard, but it’s notable that both teams were aggressive on a fellow Tommy John reclamation play.

Verlander has drawn interest from both Toronto and Boston, per Sherman, who adds that the Yankees seem fairly serious with their interest in the 39-year-old. Verlander, somewhat notably, held his recent showcase at Cressey Sports Performance — the Florida-based training facility operated by Yankees director of player health and performance Eric Cressey. Corey Kluber did the same last offseason before ultimately agreeing to a deal with the Yankees. As noted at the time of the showcase, the location of Verlander’s audition alone doesn’t tip the scale in the Yankees’ favor, but it shouldn’t be completely overlooked, either.

Geographical preference notwithstanding, the best offer is likely to win the bidding for Verlander at the end of the day. It’s unlikely he’d leave an extra year or tens of millions of dollars on the table to spurn a West Coast team to sign in New York, Boston or Toronto. Factors like geography, Spring Training locale and familiarity with teammates (e.g. Gerrit Cole in the Bronx, George Springer in Toronto) are often, albeit not always, more tiebreakers when weighing comparable offers.

Tigers fans, of course, undoubtedly would love to see a reunion in Detroit and are surely heartened to see Verlander’s preference for Florida-based Spring Training outfits. However, Rosenthal also suggests that the Tigers may not be “in as heavily” as other interested clubs.

Angels Sign Noah Syndergaard

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The first of what Angels fans hope will be multiple rotation additions is in the books, as the Halos announced a one-year agreement with free-agent righty Noah Syndergaard. The 29-year-old will reportedly collect a $21MM salary in 2022 before re-testing the free agent market next offseason.

Syndergaard received an $18.4MM qualifying offer from the Mets last week, and his agreement with the Angels effectively amounts to rejecting that offer. As such, the Angels will forfeit their second-highest selection in next year’s draft. The Mets, meanwhile, will receive a compensatory draft pick after the completion of Competitive Balance Round B (typically in the No. 75 overall range).

Noah Syndergaard | Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports

Syndergaard has scarcely pitched since the completion of the 2019 season thanks to 2020 Tommy John surgery and a series of setbacks in his recovery this year. He did make it back to the mound for two innings of bullpen work with the Mets late in the 2021 campaign, at least demonstrating that he was healthy enough to pitch in a big league game.

The general hope had been that he’d be recovered from surgery and rejoin the Mets’ rotation around June, but Syndergaard’s recovery was shut down on May 27 due to inflammation in his surgically repaired elbow. He resumed throwing about six weeks later but was again set back — this time by a positive Covid-19 test.

When healthy, Syndergaard has proven to be one of the more dynamic pitchers in the game. The 6’6″, 242-pound righty is one of the more physically imposing pitchers in MLB and, at his peak, boasted the velocity to match that frame. Syndergaard averaged a blistering 98.1 mph on his heater from 2015-19, pitching to a combined 3.31 ERA and 3.37 SIERA along the way. The big righty finished fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting in ’15 and finished eighth in Cy Young voting during an All-Star 2016 season.

At his best, Syndergaard combines that elite velocity with high-end strikeout rates and plus walk rates. He’s fanned a hearty 26.4% of career opponents against just a 5.6% walk rate — including a career-best 29.3% strikeout rate in that All-Star 2016 season. Syndergaard has never walked more than 6.1% of his opponents in a given season, and he’s also kept the ball on the ground at an above-average 49% clip in 718 career innings.

It’s that lack of innings, of course, that is the primary red flag on Syndergaard at present. In addition to the 2020 Tommy John surgery and series of 2021 setbacks, Syndergaard was limited to just seven starts in 2017, owing to a torn lat muscle. He also missed time in 2018 due to some ligament damage in his pitching hand.

With that context in mind, Syndergaard falls in line with some recent rotation additions by the Angels: high-upside, high-risk arms on a one-year deal (e.g. Matt Harvey, Julio Teheran). That comes in spite of a new general manager — Perry Minasian replaced Billy Eppler to begin the 2020-21 offseason — though one would imagine that this is the first of multiple pieces Minasian and his staff will add this winter. It remains possible that the Angels will add a starter on a multi-year deal. Still, the Angels have had longstanding rotation issues but nevertheless repeatedly eschewed long-term deals for pitchers, suggesting at least some aversion to such deals on owner Arte Moreno’s behalf.

To be fair, none of the short-term rotation additions the Angels have made in recent years carry the same upside as Syndergaard on a one-year contract. Minasian has vowed to “significantly” improve his team’s starting staff in 2022, and a healthy Syndergaard would be a clear step in that direction. He’ll join Shohei Ohtani atop the rotation for the time being, but that duo would require greater workload management than most top-of-the-rotation pairs throughout the league. As such, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Angels also target some more reliable bulk innings with their next addition — be it on the free-agent market or via the trade market.

Beyond Ohtani and Syndergaard, the Angels have plenty of promising arms but little in the way of established MLB hurlers. Young lefties Patrick Sandoval and Jose Suarez both showed well in 2021 but tallied fewer than 100 frames apiece. Fellow southpaw Reid Detmers was a first-round pick in 2020 and is viewed as one of baseball’s top pitching prospects, but he was hit hard in his 2021 MLB debut. Former top prospect Griffin Canning ought to get another look after some injuries and struggles have deflated his stock, and righty Jaime Barria gives the Angels a solid back-of-the-rotation option as well.

With a return to form by Syndergaard and another healthy season of Ohtani, it’s easy to see this staff being the best the Angels have had in recent memory. At the same time, that’s a lot to bank on. Given the injury risk strewn throughout this group and the general attrition rate of young pitchers, it’s equally plausible that the Angels could again find themselves scrambling to piece things together. Syndergaard is quite arguably as great an upside play as there is on this offseason’s market, but the Angels still have some heavy lifting to do on the rotation front if they hope to finally piece together the reliable staff that has eluded them in recent years.

The Syndergaard signing gives the Angels six guaranteed contracts on next year’s books, totaling a hefty $129.95MM just among that group. A small arbitration class works in their favor and brings the team’s projected payroll into the $150MM range, however, even after accounting for a slate of pre-arbitration players to round out the roster. That should leave room for at least one more significant addition on the starting staff (perhaps two, if one comes via trade).

As for the Mets, the loss of Syndergaard and the potential loss of fellow free agent Marcus Stroman — another reported Angels target — leaves them with ample questions in their own rotation. Jacob deGrom is the game’s best pitcher but missed significant time due to injury in 2021. Carlos Carrasco’s brief Mets tenure has been punctuated by injury troubles, and Taijuan Walker wilted after a terrific first half. The Mets have younger options in the rotation themselves (e.g. David Peterson, Tylor Megill), but they’ll surely be on the hunt for upgrades after being spurned by Syndergaard.

Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported the sides were nearing agreement on a contract. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the sides had agreed on a one-year, $21MM deal.

Photo courtesy of Imagn/USA Today Sports.

Minasian: Angels Hope To “Significantly Improve” Rotation This Offseason

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TODAY: The Angels also have interest in Marcus Stroman, Alex Wood, and Noah Syndergaard, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.

NOVEMBER 9, 8:58pm: Minasian reiterated his desire to land an impact starter when speaking with Alden González of ESPN this evening (Twitter link). “Frontline starting pitching is tough to acquire. It’s very difficult,” the GM acknowledged. “That being said, we’d like to significantly improve our rotation. That’s an area where we’ll definitely look for a certain type of quality.”

2:16pm: It’s become something of an offseason tradition to note that the Angels are in the market for rotation help, and that’s again the case as the 2021-22 offseason commences. Second-year general manager Perry Minasian again told reporters at this week’s GM Meetings that pitching help is his top priority — Minasian offered a similar outlook in early October — and perhaps more importantly suggested that the team isn’t operating under any payroll constraints (Twitter links via Jack Harris of the L.A. Times). Asked about the budget, Minasian simply replied he “wouldn’t rule us out of anything.”

It’s hardly a surprise to see the Angels again in the market for pitching help — especially with regard to the rotation. Halos starters ranked 26th in the Majors with just 776 1/3 innings pitched in 2021, and their collective 4.78 ERA ranked 22nd. In terms of fielding-independent metrics like FIP and SIERA, the Angels were a middle-of-the-pack club, and the same was true of their strikeout percentage. No team in baseball saw its starters walk a higher percentage of opponents than the Angels’ nine percent mark, however, and their rotation ranked 15th in hit batters despite tallying the fifth-fewest innings of any team in MLB.

Minasian confirmed to Harris and others that the team was represented at yesterday’s Justin Verlander showcase, and MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Angels have made some early inquiries with free-agent lefties Robbie Ray and Eduardo Rodriguez. Any big-market club with a need in the rotation figures to check in with the representatives for this trio of pitchers, of course, but it’s notable that all three of Verlander, Ray and Rodriguez have received qualifying offers from their respective clubs.

If the Angels were to sign anyone from that trio, they’d need to forfeit their second-highest draft selection and $500K of their international bonus pool. For some teams, that’s a firm roadblock, but it’s at least somewhat telling that the Angels don’t seem fazed by that reality. Their early interest in this group meshes well with Minasian’s sentiment that they’re not ruling anything out as they look to address a longstanding rotation need.

In the bullpen, the Angels have made a qualifying offer of their own, extending that $18.4MM proposal to closer Raisel Iglesias. Minasian hasn’t received any indication as to whether Iglesias will accept or decline the offer — the latter seems likely — but emphasized (via Harris) that the Angels would like to have Iglesias at the back of their ’pen again in 2022, whether he accepts or declines.

The Angels’ rotation currently projects to be headlined by MVP frontrunner Shohei Ohtani, with younger options such as Patrick Sandoval, Jose Suarez, Jaime Barria, Reid Detmers, Griffin Canning and Janson Junk among the options to round things out. It’s an inexperienced group, to say the least, so it’s likely the Angels will be in the market for multiple veteran arms to join the group in the offseason. Alex Cobb previously expressed interest in returning to the club but will at least be able to field interest from other clubs now that he’s a free agent.

From a payroll vantage point, the Angels currently owe a combined $108.95MM to five players: Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, Justin Upton, David Fletcher and Ohtani. Add in a modest projection of $7.7MM in arbitration salaries — including a combined $2.8MM to non-tender candidates Junior Guerra and Phil Gosselin — as well as a slate of pre-arbitration players, and next year’s projected payroll jumps to somewhere in the $125-130MM range.

For a team that carried a $182MM payroll in 2021 and recently saw Albert Pujols’ decade-long megadeal come off the books, that’s a fair bit of flexibility. And, considering further that Justin Upton’s backloaded contract ($28MM in 2022) is off the books next winter, the outlook is a bit brighter yet. The Angels will still surely want to consider a long-term deal to keep Ohtani beyond the 2023 campaign, currently his final year of club control, but there ought to be room to bring in an arm of some note.

That said, with all of Trout, Rendon and ideally Ohtani on the books for the long haul, it might be difficult for the Angels to sign two high-end pitchers to long-term arrangements. It’s feasible that they could sign someone like Ray or Rodriguez to a long-term deal, ink another impact starter to a shorter-term arrangement — Verlander, Max Scherzer and Carlos Rodon are among the candidates for that type of deal, speculatively speaking — and then look to the trade market for another arm. The Reds, Marlins and Athletics could all look to move some starters this winter, and the Halos of have several promising young outfielders, including Jo Adell, Brandon Marsh and Jordyn Adams. Any of the previously mentioned young rotation options could also be included in a package for a more established arm.

Regardless of how things unfold, the Angels have a good bit of payroll space at their disposal for at least the next few years. The manner in which they address the rotation this winter and the outcome of their inevitable extension talks with Ohtani will dictate how things look in 2023 and beyond.

14 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Today was the last day for teams to issue qualifying offers to eligible free agents, as teams had to make their decisions by 4pm CT.  With the deadline now behind us, here are the players who were issued the one-year, $18.4MM offers…

This is the highest number of qualifying offers issued since the 2015-16 offseason, when a record 20 players received the QOs.  Only six players received qualifying offers last winter, which was the lowest ever issued in an offseason, yet not really surprising given the pandemic’s impact on the 2020 season and league revenues.

These 14 players now have until November 17 to decide whether or not to accept the offer.  If they accept, they’ll receive $18.4MM next season, and can’t be traded until June 15, 2022.  They also won’t be eligible to receive a qualifying offer in any future trips to free agency (players are also ineligible for the qualifying offer if they haven’t spent at least one full season with their current team).  Since the qualifying offer system was introduced in the 2012-13 offseason, 10 of the 96 players to receive a QO have taken the deal.

If a player rejects the qualifying offer, draft pick compensation is now attached to their market, unless they re-sign with their former team.  Teams who sign a QO free agent will have to surrender at least one draft pick, and potentially some international bonus pool money depending on their status as revenue-sharing recipients or whether or not they exceeded the luxury tax threshold.  (Here is the list of what every team would have to give up to sign a QO free agent.)

If a QO free agent signs elsewhere, that player’s former team receives a compensatory draft pick based on this criteria….

  • A draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B will be awarded if the team losing the free agent did not receive revenue sharing or if the free agent in question signed a contract worth less than $50MM in guaranteed money.
  • A draft pick after Round 1 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent received revenue sharing and the free agent in question signed for more than $50MM.
  • A draft pick after Round 4 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent paid luxury tax penalties in the preceding season.

As always, several factors are weighed by both teams and players about whether or not to issue or accept qualifying offers.  This winter provides yet another wrinkle — this could be the final year of the current qualifying offer system due to the expiration of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement on December 1.  It is widely expected that the owners could lock out the players if a new deal isn’t reached by that date.  In the event of a lockout, MLB would institute a roster freeze on all transactional business involving Major League players, thus bringing the free agent market to a halt.

With this deadline looming, it is possible we could see some QO recipients (those less certain of landing big multi-year contracts) choose to accept the one-year deal in order to guarantee themselves some financial and contractual security prior to a possible lockout.  By that same token, this could make teams warier about extending the qualifying offer to certain players due to a larger suspicion that they would accept…or perhaps a player’s willingness to accept could make a team more inclined to issue a QO to a so-called borderline case.

Mets Extend Qualifying Offers To Michael Conforto, Noah Syndergaard

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The Mets announced that they have issued qualifying offers to outfielder Michael Conforto and right-hander Noah Syndergaard.  The two players have until November 17 to decide if they will accept the one-year, $18.4MM offer, or if either will reject the offer and test free agency.

It was already expected that Conforto would receive a QO, though there wasn’t as much clarity on Syndergaard, considering the righty has missed virtually all of the last two seasons.  Syndergaard underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2020 and then his return was further delayed by elbow inflammation, before he got back in time to pitch two innings over two games late in the Mets’ 2021 campaign.

Before the TJ surgery, however, Syndergaard had exhibited some front-of-the-rotation stuff over his first five seasons with New York.  The peak was a 2016 season that saw “Thor” earn an All-Star nod and finish eighth in NL Cy Young Award voting, though over 716 innings from 2015-19, Syndergaard posted a 3.31 ERA, 26.4% strikeout rate, and a 20.7% K/BB rate.

If Syndergaard is able to deliver close to those types of numbers when healthy in 2022, that is certainly worth an $18.4MM payday.  With this in mind, the Mets clearly felt comfortable issuing the QO to Syndergaard knowing that he very well could accept the one-year deal now, and re-enter free agency next winter in search of a longer-term contract (and an actual platform year on his resume).  Syndergaard returning to the fold would go a long ways towards bolstering a Mets rotation that might lose Marcus Stroman to free agency, plus Jacob deGrom and Carlos Carrasco are coming off injury-plagued seasons of their own.

New York is now also eligible to receive a compensatory draft pick if Syndergaard rejects the qualifying offer and signs elsewhere, and that possibility can’t be ruled out.  Another team might feel Syndergaard is worth some kind of multi-year commitment right now, or possibly a multi-year deal that contains an opt-out clause after a year so Syndergaard could end up re-entering the 2022-23 free agent class after all.

Conforto seemed like a surefire bet to receive a qualifying offer prior to the 2021 campaign, yet some doubts were raised when the outfielder struggled for a big portion of the season.  A strained right hamstring cost Comforto over a month on the injured list, and he hit .232/.344/.384 over 479 plate appearances — a large step back from his .259/.358/.484 slash line over his first six seasons.

Looking at the advanced metrics, there isn’t any clear reason behind Conforto’s dropoff, apart from an increase in his groundball rate (a career-high 44.7%), which combined with a .276 BABIP could have resulted in just some bad batted-ball luck.  Apart from that one stat, however, many of Conforto’s 2021 metrics were pretty close or even better than his career rates.

It would seem like Conforto might also be a candidate to accept the qualifying offer, if he wished to enter free agency on the heels of a better platform year come next winter.  However, reports suggest that Conforto will likely reject the QO and test the market this season.  It stands to reason that multiple teams will still have interest in giving Conforto a nice multi-year contract (especially since 2022 will only be his age-29 season), though it will be interesting to see just how big a deal he lands in the wake of his somewhat average 2021 numbers.

Noah Syndergaard Discusses Impending Free Agency

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Noah Syndergaard made his long-awaited return to the Mets this evening, firing a perfect inning as an opener in tonight’s win over the Marlins. It was the right-hander’s first big league appearance since September 2019, as Syndergaard lost all of last year and almost the entirety of this season recuperating from a March 2020 Tommy John surgery.

Syndergaard is scheduled to hit the open market a couple months from now, setting up one of the more interesting free agency cases of the offseason. At his best, the fireballer is one of the game’s most fearsome starters. He entered play tonight with a 3.31 ERA over 716 career innings, including a 2016-18 stretch in which he worked 368 1/3 frames of 2.81 ERA/2.42 FIP ball.

It’s difficult to know precisely what to expect from Syndergaard coming off two almost completely lost seasons, though. Teams aren’t going to place much emphasis on his results over a lone inning of work, but Syndergaard’s fastball averaged 96 MPH in his return outing. That’s not quite his peak level of arm strength, of course, but it’s sufficient velocity to assuage concerns that his stuff completely evaporated over the long layoff.

After the game, Syndergaard discussed his upcoming free agency with reporters (including Tim Britton of the Athletic and Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News). The 29-year-old said he’s “fairly confident” he’ll remain with the Mets beyond this season, although he cautioned that statement was speculative as opposed to an indication the club and his representatives at CAA were on the verge of any sort of agreement.

The qualifying offer is one potential form a Mets’ return might take. New York could tag Syndergaard with a QO, which would be for one year and is expected to land in the $19-20MM range. If Syndergaard accepted the offer, he’d lock in another year in Queens. Were he to reject and sign elsewhere, the Mets would receive a draft choice as compensation.

Unsurprisingly, Syndergaard didn’t directly answer whether he’d accept a QO if offered. But he told reporters he’d “be extremely grateful” to be tagged with a QO, adding that that outcome would be “definitely something I’m hoping for.” That’s a bit counterintuitive on the surface, since being attached to draft pick compensation could have something of an adverse effect on Syndergaard’s market. It’s possible he’d simply appreciate the symbolism of the offer as a show of faith on the Mets’ part in his ability to bounce back next season. And a QO would at least give Syndergaard and his reps an additional option; players tagged with a QO have ten days to decide whether to accept, giving them some time to explore the market early in free agency while having a solid one-year salary available as a fallback.

Syndergaard is one of two key QO decisions the Mets will have to make this winter. They’re reportedly leaning towards offering one to outfielder Michael Conforto in spite of his generally disappointing 2021 campaign. There’s certainly merit to the idea of potentially bringing back both Syndergaard and Conforto on significant one-year deals. If they were to get a healthy season from Syndergaard and/or a Conforto bounceback next year, those salaries would look plenty reasonable and they’d be significant boons to the club’s hopes of putting this year’s second half swoon behind them and competing in the NL East.

Were both players to accept, however, that’d push the Mets’ guaranteed payroll up to around $175MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, before accounting for an arbitration class that’ll include the likes of Edwin Díaz, Brandon Nimmo, Dominic Smith, J.D. Davis, Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil. Those raises would take the Mets right up to or perhaps even past this season’s estimated $203MM player tab, and that’s without considering the possibilities of extending Marcus Stroman or Javier Báez and making outside upgrades. That’d leave the front office — and its still-unknown incoming president of baseball operations — potentially looking to trade away some established members of the roster, unless owner Steve Cohen is willing to dramatically ramp up spending in his second year atop the franchise.

Mets Reinstate Noah Syndergaard From 60-Day Injured List

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Noah Syndergaard is finally back in the majors, as the Mets have reinstated the right-hander from the 60-day injured list.  Syndergaard will start the second game of New York’s doubleheader with the Marlins today, and officially act as the 29th man for the twin bill.  Catcher Chance Sisco was designated for assignment to make room on the 40-man roster.

It was almost exactly two years ago that Syndergaard last pitched in a big league game, tossing seven innings in a 7-6 Mets win over the Braves on September 29, 2019.  The former All-Star then underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2020 and was initially projected to return around midseason, but a bout of elbow inflammation delayed Syndergaard’s return even further.

Now, the man they call “Thor” will only make a cameo appearance or two in the Mets’ final few games, though Syndergaard will surely feel comforted by getting some proper game action under his belt before another long offseason.  Syndergaard isn’t expected to work as a true starting pitcher, as he will serve as an opener today and could see work out of the bullpen for any other appearances.

Syndergaard’s extended absence was far from the only thing that went wrong for the 2021 Mets, and given how some pitchers don’t look quite themselves in their first outings back from TJ surgery, it isn’t any guarantee that a healthy Syndergaard would’ve provided a midseason boost even if he had met his projected recovery time.

Between a 2017 season that was limited to 30 1/3 innings due to injuries, and now the 2020-21 campaigns, Syndergaard has already endured three lost seasons in his brief MLB career.  When he has been able to pitch, Syndergaard has looked like a top-of-the-rotation arm, posting a 3.31 ERA, 26.4% strikeout rate, and 20.7 K-BB% over 716 innings from 2015-19.

It makes for one of the winter’s more intriguing free agent cases, as Syndergaard will hit the open market at the end of the year.  An argument can certainly be made that the Mets should issue a qualifying offer to Syndergaard, as a one-year contract in the $20MM range is a worthy investment for a frontline pitcher and Thor might be apt to take such a deal as a pillow contract to set himself up for a longer-term deal in the 2022-23 offseason.  Retaining Syndergaard would also provide some rotation depth in the event that Marcus Stroman leaves in free agency.

On the other hand, the Mets might have some natural reservation about committing $20MM to a pitcher who has missed essentially two full years.  With Robinson Cano’s contract returning to the books, the Mets will have less payroll space to either re-sign such noteworthy free agents as Stroman, Syndergaard, Javier Baez or Michael Conforto, or to acquire suitable replacements for the roster.  Then again, owner Steve Cohen might not consider the luxury tax threshold to be an impediment for the Mets’ to-be-determined next president of baseball operations, and Cohen might be more motivated to spend big after his club’s disappointing season.

From Syndergaard’s perspective, he’ll at least get a bit of a showcase to prove that he is healthy, even if a handful of innings won’t necessarily assuage the concerns of any interested teams looking to sign him this winter.  His free agent market could be hampered by the specter of draft pick compensation if he did reject the QO, but Syndergaard’s ceiling is high enough that an enterprising team could still be willing to take the plunge on more than one guaranteed year.

New York claimed Sisco off waivers from the Orioles in June, and the catcher appeared in only five games with the Mets at the big league level.  Sisco had some respectable numbers in part-time duty with the O’s over the last two seasons, but his defensive struggles and a big lack of production at the start of 2021 led the Orioles to part ways with the former top prospect.  For the season as a whole, Sisco is hitting only .149/.241/.189 over 83 combined plate appearances with New York and Baltimore.

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