Red Sox Notes: Fister, Harden, Adams, Orioles
The odds say the Red Sox have a 94.5% chance of making the playoffs, but I'm guessing that's not going to console most Red Sox fans. Boston leads Tampa Bay by three games in the Wild Card race, but that gap might have been wider by now if they had made different moves at the trade deadline. Alex Speier of WEEI.com has the details on the deadline deals that didn't happen…
- When the Red Sox made cursory inquiries about Doug Fister, it became clear that the Mariners were aiming high and looking for a right-handed bat. Since joining the Tigers, Fister has a 2.28 ERA with 7.2 K/9 and 0.9 BB/9 in 51 1/3 impressive innings.
- The Red Sox were set to acquire Rich Harden from the A’s, but once they looked at his medical records, they were no longer willing to include both Lars Anderson and a player to be named. The PTBNL would have come from a list of high-upside players in the lower minors.
- Raul Alcantara, an 18-year-old Dominican who signed for $500K in 2009 and Brandon Workman, a second round pick in last year’s draft, would have been on the list.
- The Red Sox also kicked around the idea of acquiring Harden’s former teammate, Brad Ziegler, who ended up going to Arizona.
- The Padres weren’t thrilled with Boston’s prospects, so Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein never came close to completing deals for Mike Adams or other Padres relievers.
- The Orioles and Red Sox never exchanged names regarding a possible Koji Uehara deal.
Quick Hits: Clippard, Storen, Ellsbury, Braves
B.J. Upton, Evan Longoria and Casey Kotchman all homered for the Rays tonight as Tampa Bay defeated Boston, 9-2, in the opener of a big four-game series. The Red Sox now have just a three-game lead over the Rays (and a four-game lead over the idle Angels) for the AL Wild Card.
Some notes from around the league….
- If Drew Storen is traded, Tyler Clippard shouldn't become the Nationals' closer since he's proven to be invaluable as the team's go-to reliever, argues Ben Goessling of MASNsports.com. It could be a moot point, though, since Goessling says it's "unlikely" that the Nats deal Storen.
- The Rays were the first team to discover Jacoby Ellsbury, drafting him in the 23rd round of the 2002 draft. Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal talks to the scouts who pushed for Tampa Bay to pick Ellsbury, who instead decided to attend Oregon State.
- Frank Wren tells David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that no decision has been made about Alex Gonzalez's future with the Braves, but both the club and the shortstop sound open to Gonzalez returning in 2012. Gonzalez is popular in the clubhouse and would be an ideal bridge at shortstop to prospect Tyler Pastornicky.
- Mike Newman of Fangraphs profiles Braves minor league left-hander Ronan Pacheco, who "is simply too perfect an example of a pitcher who bucks just about every prospect stereotype on both the statistical and scouting sides to not discuss."
- Matt Eddy of Baseball America recaps this week's minor league transactions.
- David DeJesus "appears the least likely to return" of the Athletics' three free agent outfielders, writes MLB.com's Jane Lee. Josh Willingham and Coco Crisp are also free agents this winter and Willingham said earlier today that he would like to stay with Oakland.
- Angels GM Tony Reagins tells Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register that he doesn't regret giving Bobby Abreu the $9MM option for 2012 that vested in July.
Giants Notes: Baer, Zito, 2012 Payroll, San Jose
Bill Neukom officially announced that he will retire from his position as the Giants' CEO at the end of the season, according to a press release from the club. Current team president and COO Laurence Baer will officially take over as the Giants' new CEO on January 1, 2012. Here are a few of the hot stove-related items from Baer's introductory press conference today at AT&T Park, plus some other links related to the transition….
- Baer said he wants Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy to remain as the Giants' GM and manager, respectively, reports Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News. Sabean and Bochy are both under contract only through 2012, though both have been expected to receive extensions given the team's World Series title last year. Kawakami also speculates about the "dysfunction at the highest levels" that led to Neukom's retirement and guesses the Giants will be operate "much more like a corporation than before."
- Baer said the Giants' payroll next season "won't go down" from what the team spent in 2011, tweets John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle, though Baer didn't say if payroll would rise, either. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Giants' 2011 payroll was a little over $118MM. The club has a few notable contracts coming off the books (Cody Ross, Mark DeRosa) but if the payroll doesn't rise, that will take the Giants out of the running for a top free agent like Prince Fielder.
- Also via a tweet from Shea, Baer didn't elaborate on Barry Zito's future in San Francisco, other than to say that players under contract for 2012 should be expected to be with the team next year.
- The Giants are just switching CEOs, not ownership, so Major League Baseball doesn't have any leverage that would allow it to force the Giants to drop their objection to the A's moving to San Jose, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (both Twitter links).
A’s Notes: Willingham, Wuertz, Harden
Though the A’s aren’t going to discuss possible deals with their free agents until the season ends, Susan Slusser previews the club’s decisions at the San Francisco Chronicle:
- Josh Willingham has said that he'd like to return to Oakland, according to Slusser. The 32-year-old, who established career highs in homers and RBI this year, projects as a Type A free agent in our latest rankings.
- Michael Wuertz told Slusser that he has recovered completely from the thumb injury that sidelined him in August. The A's have a $3.25MM option ($250K buyout) for Wuertz in 2012 and MLBTR's Tim Dierkes gets the sense that they'll decline it.
- Harden likes pitching in Oakland under pitching coach Ron Romanick so he could re-sign there this offseason if he’s healthy and the A’s are interested. Harden doesn't project as a ranked free agent, so compensatory draft picks won't be a consideration.
- ESPN.com's Buster Olney explains that MLB remains desperate for a solution to Oakland's stadium issues, more than two years after establishing a committee to study the situation.
Bay Area Notes: Neukom, Baer, Athletics
On the field, the Giants won today and the A's lost. Off the field, the Giants are set to undergo a shakeup and the A's may have reason to hope. Here's the latest…
- The Giants announced that Bill Neukom will retire from his position at the end of the 2011 calendar year and will serve as Chairman Emeritus in 2012. As anticipated, Baer will become CEO at that point.
- Giants' managing general partner and CEO Bill Neukom will not return in the same role next season, according to Mark Purdy of the San Jose Mercury News. The executive committee has asked Neukom to step aside following a series of disagreements. Larry Baer, the Giants' president and COO, will become the CEO when Neukom steps down.
- ESPN.com’s Buster Olney suggests the leadership change could provide the Athletics with optimism, since Neukom has opposed the possibility that the might A's move to nearby San Jose (Twitter link).
- Baer also opposes the Athletics' proposed move to San Jose, so it's difficult to see the Giants' position changing, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter).
Arbitration Eligibles: Oakland Athletics
The Athletics are next in our arbitration eligibles series.
- First time: Andrew Bailey, Daric Barton, Adam Rosales, Gio Gonzalez, Landon Powell
- Second time: Dallas Braden, Ryan Sweeney, Craig Breslow
- Third time: Joey Devine
- Fourth time: Brandon McCarthy
This entire group could reasonably be tendered contracts. It's possible someone like Rosales, a potential Super Two, would be cut loose even though his projected salary is only $600K. Powell, another likely Super Two, also failed to produce in the bigs but could be retained affordably.
Gonzalez should land the biggest salary at an estimated $3.6MM, as he'll be arbitration eligible as a Super Two. Braden should stay around $3.3MM after missing most of the season. Bailey could get $3.4MM for his first time through, while the A's can enjoy McCarthy cheaply for one more season at around $2.6MM.
Barton, Sweeney, and Breslow should fall in the $1.6-1.8MM range. It was a lost season for Barton culminating in shoulder surgery, but it's still a reasonable price to retain him. The A's also have Devine checking in around $900K.
In total we estimate $19.5MM for the Athletics' nine arbitration eligibles. Assuming Michael Wuertz's option is exercised, the A's are looking at a commitment of maybe $44MM plus minimum salary players. That'd put them $23MM short of this year's Opening Day payroll.
Matt Swartz contributed to this post.
Stark On Madson, Astros, Beane, Nationals
MLB is building momentum toward two 15-team leagues with three five-team divisions per league, according to ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark. It doesn't appear that the players’ association will agree to expand the postseason unless owners agree to more balanced schedules and divisions, Stark reports. Here are the rest of his rumors…
- It appears that the Tigers and Rays will pick up their options for Jose Valverde and Kyle Farnsworth, respectively, this offseason.
- Two MLB executives predicted to Stark that Ryan Madson will sign a deal like the one Valverde obtained two winters ago: $14MM over two years plus an option.
- Multiple teams have expressed concerns about Francisco Rodriguez’s off-field “baggage,” though K-Rod stands out as one of the best free agent relievers of the winter.
- Stark hears that MLB has been slow to approve incoming Astros owner Jim Crane in order to apply leverage on Crane so that he’ll agree to move the Astros to the American League. Earlier today, Bob Nightengale of USA Today had a report that conflicts with Stark’s article.
- Friends of Billy Beane say the A’s GM has legitimate interest in the Cubs GM job, though he has an ownership stake and lots of freedom in Oakland.
- Nationals GM Mike Rizzo will interview managerial candidates this offseason before deciding whether Davey Johnson will return as manager in 2012.
- First base doesn’t appear to be a priority for Washington, but Rizzo says "you never want to say never” when it comes to possible offseason moves.
Indians Claim Jason Rice
The Indians claimed minor league reliever Jason Rice off waivers from the Athletics, tweets Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. The A's had acquired Rice from the Red Sox in the Conor Jackson deal last Wednesday. The Tribe made room on the 40-man roster for Rice by moving Carlos Carrasco to the 60-day DL.
Rice, 25, posted a 3.69 ERA, 9.4 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, and 0.6 HR/9 in 85 1/3 Triple-A innings this year. The Red Sox had obtained Rice from the White Sox in the Triple-A phase of the Rule 5 draft, prior to the '09 season. Red Sox vice president of player development and amateur scouting Mike Hazen talked to Pawtucket announcer Dan Hoard about Rice's arsenal in this post from February.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Rich Harden
In the 2009-10 offseason, the Athletics guaranteed $12MM to injury-risk starting pitchers Ben Sheets and Justin Duchscherer. For 2010-11, the A's made their major commitments to relievers Brian Fuentes and Grant Balfour, but also picked up starters Rich Harden and Brandon McCarthy for a total of $2.5MM. So far in 2011, the two righty starters have combined for a tidy 3.76 ERA in 206 innings.
Less than a third of those innings have come from Harden, who developed a lat injury in February and didn't make his season debut until July 1st. Since then Harden has made all of his scheduled starts, 11 of them heading into today's action. He seemed headed to Boston on July 30th, but the Red Sox saw something they didn't like in his medical files and killed the trade. Whatever they saw hasn't been an issue yet, as Harden made six starts in August and struck out 42. During that time the Indians won a claim on Harden, but he again stayed put.
After a terrible 2010 with the Rangers, Harden appears to have returned to the formula that worked relatively well for him in '08 and '09: a huge strikeout rate, limited hits, lots of walks, and a lot of home runs allowed. Though this approach has led to only a 4.55 ERA in 63 1/3 innings, Harden's 3.39 SIERA ranks fifth among impending free agent starting pitchers with at least 60 innings – just behind Bartolo Colon, C.J. Wilson, and Erik Bedard – though the innings cutoff was designed to include him. Harden's 10.2 K/9 is easily tops among free agent starters, and ranks third in baseball overall.
In 2008-09, Harden showed the ability to provide about 150 innings per season. However, after '10 and '11, teams might have to lower their expectation to 100 innings. Harden seems likely to continue signing one-year deals for the duration of his career, unless he takes off as a reliever at some point. His last two free agent contracts guaranteed $7.5MM and $1.5MM, and I think we can split the difference and expect a guarantee in the $4.5MM range for 2012. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle has reported that Harden would be happy to return to the A's next year, so perhaps they'll get a bit of a discount.
Front Office Notes: Beane, Cubs, Epstein, Friedman
Here's the latest on some GM vacancies and other front office moves…
- Would Billy Beane be a good fit as the Yankees' general manager? Mike Silva of the New York Baseball Digest takes on the question and wonders how Beane would navigate the politics of the Yankee front office. Beane's name has been whispered in connection with the Cubs' GM vacancy, and Silva agrees that if Beane leaves Oakland for any job, it would be in Chicago.
- The Cubs have signed Oneri Fleita to a four-year contract extension to continue as the club's vice-president of player personnel, reports Toni Ginnetti of the Chicago Sun-Times. The Tigers were reportedly interested in hiring Fleita, which is why the Cubs moved to lock him up despite the fact that Chicago's GM candidates could have possibly wanted to fill that position themselves.
- Three AL East general managers will likely be staying put, says FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal (video link). The Yankees and Brian Cashman are mutually interested in continuing their relationship, Andrew Friedman is "extremely loyal" to Rays owner Stuart Sternberg and since Theo Epstein has one year left on his Red Sox contract, an interested suitor like the Cubs would have to give Epstein the proverbial "offer he can't refuse" in order to convince him to leave.
- Also from Rosenthal, he hears from sources close to Ozzie Guillen who feel the manager's recent demand for a contract extension was "a classic Ozzie diversionary tactic" to take the heat off the players. On the other hand, common sense dictates that Guillen wants more job security and doesn't want to risk being fired in mid-season if the White Sox struggle in 2012. One anonymous GM tells Rosenthal to bet on both Guillen and Kenny Williams staying in Chicago, since Jerry Reinsdorf is loyal to both men.