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On the heels of the beginning of the 2023 MLB draft last night, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. The 2023 Home Run Derby:
A staple of All-Star festivities, the Home Run Derby returns tonight with a group of eight sluggers set to battle it out for a $1MM prize. This year the participants, in order of seeding, are: Luis Robert Jr. of the White Sox, Pete Alonso of the Mets, Mookie Betts of the Dodgers, Adolis Garcia of the Rangers, Randy Arozarena of the Rays, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays, Julio Rodriguez of the Mariners, and Adley Rutschman of the Orioles.
Robert, Betts, Garcia, Arozarena, and Rutschman are all first-time participants in the derby. Rodriguez participated in the derby last year, storming to the finals before losing by just one homer to reigning champion Juan Soto. With Soto not participating this season, the most recent derby winner in tonight’s field is Alonso, who won the contest in both 2021 and 2019, with his 2019 victory coming in a hard-fought final against Guerrero. This year’s Home Run Derby will take place at 7pm CT and air on ESPN.
2. Day 2 of the 2023 MLB draft:
Day 1 of the MLB draft began with the Pirates selecting LSU right-hander Paul Skenes with the first overall pick. By the end of the night, 70 picks had been made in total. The draft will kick back into gear for Day 2 at 1pm CT this afternoon, with rounds three through ten slated to take place today. While much of the top-tier talent was already selected on Day 1, a handful of top players remain on the board. Virginia Tech outfielder Jack Hurley (No. 36 in the class, per MLB Pipeline) and prep right-hander Travis Sykora (No. 40) represent the top college and high school players remaining, respectively, per MLB.com. The Athletic’s Keith Law lists prep shortstop Roch Cholowsky (No. 23) as the top high schooler available, while Vanderbilt lefty Hunter Owen (No. 38) is his top remaining college player.
3. Pham to undergo MRI:
Mets outfielder Tommy Pham departed yesterday’s loss to the Padres in the first inning due to right groin soreness. Per MLB.com, Pham will undergo an MRI today to determine the severity of the issue. With the Mets not scheduled to play until Friday due to the All Star break, it’s possible that Pham’s injury won’t end up requiring him to miss any time at all, though a more severe issue would be an unfortunate turn of events for both Pham and the Mets. Not only has Pham been an impactful bat for the Mets this season, with a .277/.350/.485 slash line in 234 plate appearances that’s good for a wRC+ of 130, but a significant injury at this point on the calendar would surely complicate the club’s ability to shop Pham ahead of the trade deadline on August 1. The 35-year-old veteran made the top 10 of MLBTR’s recent Top 50 Deadline Trade Candidates as the top outfielder listed.
The Pirates selected LSU right-hander Paul Skenes with the first overall pick of the 2023 amateur draft. The 21-year-old Skenes joins Henry Davis (2021), Gerrit Cole (2011), Bryan Bullington (2002), Kris Benson (1996), and Jeff King (1986) as players selected by Pittsburgh as the first overall pick. FanSided’s Robert Murray was the first to report that Pittsburgh was taking Skenes.
In a draft class that is heavier on position players in the top tier, Skenes has long stood out as the best pitcher of this year’s prospects, and one of the favorites to go first overall. MLB Pipeline ranked Skenes as the top overall draft prospect of 2023, while Baseball America ranked him second (behind LSU teammate Dylan Crews) and Fangraphs, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel all had Skenes third.
The pundits are unanimous in their praise for Skenes’ fastball (which touches 100 mph) and slider, which are both considered plus-plus pitches. Relying mostly on this two-pitch arsenal, Skenes dominated collegiate batters, helping lead LSU to the College World Series title. His changeup is a bit more of a work in progress simply because Skenes hasn’t thrown it all that much, but Pipeline’s scouting report describes the pitch as “88-93 mph with fade and is a solid offering when he lands it in the strike zone.” Skenes has strong command of his pitches, and he has a classic pitcher’s build at 6’6 and 235 pounds. If this wasn’t enough, Skenes was also an excellent hitter while playing as a catcher before he focused entirely on pitching — while there hasn’t been any two-way speculation, it at least speaks to Skenes’ athleticism.
The Pirates earned the top pick via the first-ever MLB Draft Lottery, which took place last December at the Winter Meetings. In an effort to combat tanking, the lottery was instituted in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement as a new method to determine the top six picks in the draft order. All 18 of the non-playoff teams technically had a shot at earning a top-six pick, though naturally teams with worse records had better chances of landing one of those top spots. The Nationals and Athletics each had worse records than the Pirates’ 62-100 mark in 2022, but it was Pittsburgh who lucked out and landed the first overall pick.
The Bucs’ rebuild has made them regulars near the top of the draft in recent years, but between these selections, their additional picks later in the draft, international signings and prospects picked up in trades, the Pirates are hopeful that their young core is getting ready to turn the franchise around. We saw some hints of promise with the Pirates’ excellent 19-9 record in April, though their subsequent struggles indicate that Pittsburgh’s true breakout might be at least one more season away.
With light perhaps at the end of the rebuilding tunnel, the Pirates certainly hope that this is the last time they’ll have such a high pick (barring some major lottery luck) in the foreseeable future. This makes Skenes an even more important prospect as perhaps the last consensus blue-chipper the Pirates might be selecting in the coming years, and he immediately becomes the club’s most prized pitching prospect. Since Ben Cherington was hired as Pittsburgh’s GM in November 2019, his front offices have favored position players with their top picks — Nick Gonzales seventh overall in 2020, Davis first overall in 2021, and Termarr Johnson fourth overall last year.
The first overall pick has an assigned slot value of $9,721,000, and it remains to be seen if finances might have played some role in Pittsburgh’s choice of Skenes. Crews was rumored to be wanting an above-slot signing bonus, so taking Skenes might have been a better financial fit for the Pirates, plus Skenes was in no way a reach at 1-1. With a $16,185,700 bonus pool to work with, the Bucs have plenty of flexibility to sign Skenes and spread some money around to other highly-touted prospects further down the board.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
The 2023 MLB Draft begins tonight, and this post will be constantly updated with each team’s selections from the first round. The Mets and Dodgers are the only teams without a first-rounder, as their top picks were each dropped 10 places overall as part of their punishment for exceeding the highest luxury-tax tier in 2022. As a result, the Mets won’t have a selection until the 32nd overall pick, and the Dodgers won’t select until 36th overall.
The first-round selections….
This year’s draft will again be 20 rounds long, and split over three days. Rounds 11-20 will take place on Tuesday, rounds 3-10 on Monday, and the draft’s first 70 picks will be made tonight. Those 70 picks cover the first two official rounds, the two Competitive Balance Rounds, the two sets of compensatory rounds (giving picks to teams who lost qualifying offer-rejecting free agents), and the first-ever Prospect Promotion Incentive Pick. The Mariners received the PPI selection at 29th overall, since Julio Rodriguez filled the criteria of winning the Rookie Of The Year Award, being part of his team’s active roster from Opening Day onwards, and he ranked as a preseason top-100 prospect by at least two of Baseball America, ESPN, and MLB Pipeline.
The PPI is one of several new wrinkles to the 2023 draft, as this is the first draft held under the new guidelines established by the 2022-2026 Collective Bargaining Agreement. The process for determining the 14 teams in the Competitive Balance Rounds was also tweaked, though the teams (all in the bottom 10 in market size or revenue size) will still have their picks split up over two mini-rounds sandwiched around the second round. The most obvious change came at the very top of the board, as this was the first year of the lottery process to determine the draft’s top six picks. This is how the Pirates ended up with the first overall selection, even though the Nationals and A’s each had worse records in 2022.
This year’s draft class is considered to be one of the deepest and most talent-laden in years, so several potential franchise-changing players could be starting their pro careers tonight. More details and scouting reports on all these young players are available in pre-draft rankings from Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. As well, Pipeline has the breakdown of the slot values assigned to each pick in the first 10 rounds, as well as the bonus pool money available to all 30 teams.
Rockies southpaw Kyle Freeland suffered a dislocated right shoulder while making a diving attempt at a Brett Wisely bunt in today’s 1-0 loss to the Giants. Freeland was in obvious pain on the field, and told reporters (including Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post) afterwards that “that was one of the worst feelings I’ve had, pitching-injury-wise.” An MRI tomorrow will check for any further damage, but perhaps the one plus is that the dislocated shoulder quickly went back into the socket, as Freeland said x-rays were taken to examine the shoulder and rule out any broken bones.
A trip to the 15-day injured list is certainly coming for Freeland following the All-Star break, and it remains to be seen how long he’ll be sidelined, though it at least helps that his pitching arm wasn’t injured. Freeland has a 4.72 ERA and the Statcast numbers aren’t fond of his work, but perhaps his the most important statistic for the season is a team-leading 103 innings. With so many Colorado pitchers already being lost to injuries this season, Freeland’s durability had been a positive for the club, but now the left-hander is himself looking at a substantial stint on the IL.
More from around the NL West…
The Yankees announced that right-hander Colten Brewer has been released so that he can sign with a team in Nippon Professional Baseball. The Hanshin Tigers will be Brewer’s next club, according to reports out of Japan (hat tip to Yakyu Cosmopolitan).
Brewer has appeared in five of the last six MLB seasons, though 80 1/3 of his 99 1/3 career innings came as a member of the Red Sox in 2019-20. The righty made a single appearance for Boston in 2021, he spent most of 2022 pitching in the Royals’ farm system, and he made it back to the Show for three games and 8 1/3 innings for New York this season. The Rays had signed Brewer to a minor league deal during the offseason, but he was traded to the Yankees on Opening Day.
This time in the big leagues has resulted in a 4.98 ERA for Brewer, who has had issues with both control and keeping the ball in the park. His minor league numbers have been a bit better, and with more strikeouts than his 19.7 K% at the MLB level. Rather than continue in the minors with the Yankees or another organization, Brewer will earn a higher guaranteed salary in Japan, and the 30-year-old might also be looking for a new spark in his career.
5:55PM: Speaking to MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch (Twitter links) and other reporters, Cashman said that he hopes to have the new hitting coach in place when the Yankees begin their second-half schedule on Friday. Cashman also said that the new hitting coach will come from outside the organization. Dykes and Wilkerson will remain with the team in assistant hitting coach roles.
5:14PM: With the Yankees lineup continuing to struggle, the team has announced it has parted ways with hitting coach Dillson Lawson. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link) first reported the move, and the Yankees confirmed Lawson’s departure in a press release. Yankees GM Brian Cashman explained the reasoning behind the decision in the release:
“It has been well documented that I have been reluctant in the past to make changes to our coaching staff in the middle of a season. I am a big believer that successes and failures are collective efforts. However, I ultimately felt that a change was needed and that a new voice overseeing our hitting operations would give us the best chance to perform closer to our capabilities as we move forward into the second half of our season.
I want thank Dillon for all his efforts. He has a bright baseball mind that will continue to lead to a long and fruitful baseball career.”
As Cashman noted, in-season coaching changes aren’t his preference, and this indeed marks the first time since Cashman became GM in 1998 that the Yankees have fired a coach during a season. Since there was no word on the status of assistant hitting coaches Casey Dykes and Brad Wilkerson, it would appear that both men will remain with the team, and either could be a candidate to take over the lead hitting coach role on at least an interim basis. The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty reports that the Yankees have two finalists in mind for the job, and Lawson’s replacement could be known as early as tomorrow.
Though New York enters the break with a respectable 49-42 record, it is fair to say that the pitching (particularly a quietly outstanding bullpen) has carried the team. The Yankees are near the bottom of the league in average and OBP, and are around the middle of the pack in home runs, slugging percentage, and wRC+. While the club is still hitting lots of home runs, the one-dimensional approach isn’t leading to much offense overall, and the Yankees’ lack of hitting has become even more glaring in the month-plus that Aaron Judge has been on the injured list.
As Joel Sherman of the New York Post noted in a piece yesterday, the Yankees’ reliance on Judge extended back to 2022, when the AL MVP’s season for the ages helped mask the fact that the rest of New York’s lineup generally underperformed. Blaming these struggles entirely on Lawson isn’t fair, of course, as Sherman notes that several veteran bats aren’t producing, and questions can be asked about Cashman’s decision to rely on these veterans rather than further bolster the roster with other position players. As well, the Yankees’ offense was already showing some inconsistency even prior to Lawson’s hiring in the 2021-22 offseason.
With this in mind, a new hitting coach shouldn’t be expected to instantly revive the Yankees’ batters, especially with Judge’s recovery timeline still so uncertain. Still, the timing of Lawson’s firing and the fact that it was made at all clearly indicates some extra pressure in the Bronx to get the season back on track. The Yankees are currently outside the playoff picture, sitting a game behind the Blue Jays for the last AL wild card spot and eight games behind the Rays for first place in the AL East. The Rays’ recent struggles have slightly kept the Jays, Yankees, and last-place Red Sox within striking distance in this loaded division, though it might be hard for any of these teams to really catch up to Tampa or the second-place Orioles, making a wild card perhaps the likeliest route to the postseason.
Lawson worked as the Yankees’ minor league hitting coordinator from 2019-21 before his promotion to lead hitting coach. The 38-year-old previously worked as a hitting coach in the Astros’ farm system, and he has a long history of coaching in the collegiate ranks.
The Dodgers announced that infielder Miguel Vargas has been optioned to Triple-A. Southpaw Bryan Hudson was also optioned, while righty Yency Almonte was reinstated from the paternity list. This leaves Los Angeles with an open spot on its active roster, though Chris Taylor is expected to be activated from the 15-day injured list after the All-Star break.
There isn’t much surprise to Vargas’ demotion, as manager Dave Roberts hinted yesterday that a move back to Triple-A might be in the cards for the rookie. A consensus top-50 prospect in baseball, Vargas was one of several youngsters the Dodgers were counting on to fill roster holes, as the team went into 2023 with a mix of proven star veterans and promising minor leaguers. Stepping in as the regular second baseman, Vargas got off to a solid start that wasn’t entirely reflected by his bottom-line numbers, as he was getting plenty of walks and making lots of hard contact without much batted-ball luck to show for it.
However, Vargas’ production has cratered over the last month. Over his last 78 plate appearances, Vargas has hit only .079/.221/.175, with just five hits total. The slump simply became too deep for the Dodgers to ignore, and the 23-year-old will now get at least a brief stint with Triple-A Oklahoma City to try and get himself back on track.
It seems likely that Vargas will be back in the majors at some point this season, though that could depend on how the Dodgers approach the trade deadline. Shortstop and second base are both big target areas, as while Mookie Betts has continued to post MVP-caliber numbers while filling in at both middle infield spots, L.A. probably prefers to see Betts back in his customary right field spot. The versatile Taylor can factor into either middle infield position, but he is struggling through his second consecutive year of underwhelming offensive production.
The Tigers announced that outfielder Jake Marisnick has been designated for assignment. The move opens up a 40-man roster spot for Trey Wingenter, who was activated off the 60-day injured list and optioned to Triple-A.
Detriot acquired Marisnick from the White Sox in cash transaction at the end of May, just when Riley Greene suffered a stress reaction in his left fibula. Greene just returned from the 15-day IL this weekend, and even though the Tigers will somewhat ease him back into action via DH duty and some more frequent off-days, the team felt comfortable enough to move on from Marisnick.
Over 33 games and 75 plate appearances in a Tigers uniform, Marisnick hit .232/.270/.420 with two home runs, though the 11-year veteran has never been known for his bat. Marisnick has generally been an excellent defender throughout his career, and the public defensive metrics (+4 Outs Above Average, +15.5 UZR/150, +4 Defensive Runs Saved) have loved his work over 206 innings as a center fielder in 2023. It’s a bit of a bounce-back for Marisnick after some slightly more inconsistent defensive numbers in recent years, though it’s worth noting the small sample-size factor, as Marisnick has been a part-time player for most of the last four seasons.
If Marisnick clears waivers, he’ll have the right to decline an outright assignment to Triple-A Toledo, since he has previously been outrighted in his career. The 32-year-old might opt to remain in Detroit’s farm system as depth, or perhaps choose free agency in search of yet another team in need of defensive outfield help at the big league level. Marisnick has played for eight MLB teams over his 11 seasons, though he is best remembered for his six-year run with the Astros that included a World Series ring in 2017.
Losing Jacob deGrom and Jake Odorizzi for the season left the Rangers a bit thin in the rotation, and the club is reportedly looking to fill that void with a familiar face. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that Texas has a “strong interest in” right-hander Lance Lynn, who previously pitched in Arlington in 2019-20. It isn’t clear if the Rangers and White Sox are anywhere close in trade talks or if negotiations are still in an early stage this far away from the trade deadline, but Nightengale writes that Chicago has “a high asking price” for the 36-year-old.
The 38-53 White Sox are on the fringes of contention even in the weak AL Central, so barring a major hot streak after the All-Star break, Chicago will certainly be looking to sell at the deadline. As of mid-June, the club was apparently only considering moving players who will be free agents after the season, and Lynn fits that description. This is the final guaranteed season of Lynn’s two-year/$38MM contract, and the Sox hold an $18MM club option ($1MM buyout) on his services for 2024.
Lynn is still owed roughly $8.3MM of his $18.5MM salary for 2023, so the White Sox could either absorb most of that remaining figure in order to get a better prospect return from another team, or an interested suitor agree to take on more salary instead of giving up any significant minor leaguers. The Sox might see a Lynn deal as an opportunity simply to get some money off the books in order to reload for 2024, and the Rangers have been such aggressive spenders over the last two offseasons that it stands to reason that they won’t close the checkbook now that the team is leading the AL West.
Between Lynn’s contract situation and Chicago’s struggles, Lynn is a natural trade candidate, and was ranked 13th on MLBTR’s most recent list of the top trade deadline candidates. Lucas Giolito, another White Sox starter heading for free agency, was ranked first, and Giolito’s trade status will surely factor into the Sox front office’s decision on Lynn. With Giolito more of a valuable asset, the White Sox could look to a Giolito deal as their opportunity to add some valuable prospects to the farm system, whereas moving Lynn might be more of an aforementioned salary dump scenario.
Of course, the elephant in the room in any Lynn trade speculation is that in terms of bottom-line statistics, 2023 is the worst season of Lynn’s 12-year MLB career. The right-hander has a 6.03 ERA over 103 innings, and no pitcher in baesball has allowed more earned runs (69) or home runs (22). Lynn’s SIERA is a much more palatable 3.74, as it takes into consideration factors like a .328 BABIP and a low 64.1% strand rate, plus the fact that Lynn’s 27.9% strikeout rate is well above the league average.
Home runs have been the big issue in Lynn’s performance, as his 20% homer rate is almost double his career 10.1% figure from 2011-22. While this is such an unusual outlier that some regression might be inevitable, it isn’t a total fluke, as batters are having much more success at maximizing their hard contact against Lynn’s pitches. His 10.5% barrel rate is by far the highest of his career, as while Lynn’s ability to generate soft contact has been a bit inconsistent, his past barrel rate numbers had been reliably above average.
To this end, Lynn might not necessarily be the Rangers’ top choice for rotation help, even if they think he can improve with a change of scenery. His previous tenure as a Ranger saw Lynn post two of the best seasons of his career, with a cumulative 3.57 ER over 292 1/3 innings in 2019-20, and the right-hander finished within the top six of AL Cy Young Award voting in both years.
Ironically, Lynn was then traded to the White Sox during the 2020-21 in something of the inverse of both teams’ current situation. That offseason, the Rangers were in rebuild mode and the Sox felt they were on the verge of contending after completing a rebuild of their own. Lynn pitched brilliantly in 2021 and helped Chicago win the AL Central, though the White Sox then fell to the Astros in the ALDS.
Texas traded Lynn just a few days after Chris Young was hired as the team’s general manager, even though Jon Daniels was still calling the shots in the Rangers’ front office as the president of baseball operations. With Young now heading into his first deadline in charge of the Rangers’ baseball ops department, he is surely looking to add the final touches to a Texas team that looks like a legitimate contender.
If Lynn can regain his old form, that would go a long way to reinforcing a rotation that has still been quite solid even without deGrom or Odorizzi. Since it doesn’t seem like Lynn’s club option will be exercised no matter which team is on come August 2, the Rangers could view him as a pure rental for the stretch run.
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