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Brewers Should Look To Add At First Base This Summer

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The Brewers knocked off the Mets yesterday, pushing four games above .500. With the Reds losing later in Baltimore, Milwaukee nudged back into first place in the NL Central.

No one will be overwhelmed with the Brew Crew’s first couple months. They’ve been outscored by 20 runs on the year and carry a 23-27 record since the start of May. Yet the Cardinals’ disastrous start leaves the door wide open for Milwaukee to take the division, even with Cincinnati outpacing most expectations and the Cubs playing their way back into the mix.

In his first summer leading baseball operations, GM Matt Arnold figures to look for ways to improve the offense. Milwaukee has been a pitching and defense team for years, but the lineup has become particularly problematic in 2023. The Brewers rank 25th in runs despite the generally hitter-friendly nature of American Family Field. Only the A’s have a lower batting average than Milwaukee’s .226 clip, while the Brewers rank 25th in on-base percentage (.303), 28th in slugging (.373) and have the game’s third-highest strikeout rate (25.7%).

Any time a team is struggling to that extent, there’ll be multiple areas of concern. For Milwaukee, none stands out more than first base. The Brewers have gotten just a .223/.294/.378 showing out of the bat-first position. By measure of wRC+, that’s 25th in MLB. The struggles have mounted over the last two months, coinciding with the team’s slide from an 18-10 start. Since May 1, Milwaukee first basemen are hitting .217/.286/.349. Only the Angels have gotten less in that span.

That’s in large part due to an extended slump from Rowdy Tellez. The left-handed hitter had an excellent April (.247/.333/.533) but has hit only .203/.269/.327 in 167 plate appearances over the past two months. His walks and contact quality have both fallen off precipitously. Tellez drew a free pass in over 12% of his trips to the dish in the first month; that’s down to a pedestrian 8.4% clip since.

The drop in batted ball results is even more concerning. Tellez’s calling card has always been big power potential. He popped 35 home runs a season ago and routinely posted excellent batted ball metrics. That hasn’t been the case in 2023. Tellez’s rate of hard contact (batted balls hit 95+ MPH) has fallen from the 45-48% range between 2020-22 to a roughly average 38.4% clip. The softer contact is borne out in the results. He’s on a 25-homer pace with an overall .218/.293/.408 batting line.

Unless Tellez breaks out of this slump in the next few weeks, Arnold and his front office could prioritize a first base upgrade at the deadline. Early-season dice rolls on Luke Voit and Jon Singleton didn’t pan out; neither is still in the organization. Darin Ruf broke a bone in his knee almost immediately after signing and is out into August. Owen Miller is better served as a multi-positional infielder than an everyday first baseman. Keston Hiura is raking in Triple-A again, but he’s struggled to put the ball in play whenever he’s gone up against big league arms.

It’s still too early to know exactly which first basemen could be attainable. Five teams (the A’s, Rockies, Nationals, Cardinals and Royals) are double-digit games out of a playoff spot. Oakland might be open to selling high on Rule 5 find Ryan Noda, but that’s by no means a guarantee. Washington hasn’t gotten much from Joey Meneses or Dominic Smith this year. Colorado could deal C.J. Cron, but he only returned from a nagging back issue yesterday and didn’t hit well before the injury.

Kansas City lost Vinnie Pasquantino to season-ending shoulder surgery and probably wouldn’t have traded him anyhow. It’s still tough to imagine the Cardinals moving Paul Goldschmidt and dealing such a major hit to their 2024 chances; even if they did put the defending NL MVP on the market, they almost certainly wouldn’t want to move him to one of their top divisional competitors.

The Brewers may have to wait a few more weeks to hope for other teams to fall out of contention. Justin Turner is having a strong season and can opt out of his deal with the Red Sox at year’s end. Boston is only three games out of a playoff spot right now; if they dropped five or six back by the deadline, they could listen to offers. Maybe the Orioles would sell low on Ryan Mountcastle, although he’s having an even poorer season than Tellez to date. Pittsburgh’s Connor Joe is a right-handed hitter with a good track record against lefty arms. He’s miscast as a regular but could be a fallback platoon partner with Tellez if Milwaukee can’t swing a bigger upgrade.

Regardless of what the Brewers do this summer, Tellez’s recent struggles put his longer-term future with the organization in doubt. He’s playing this season on a $4.95MM salary and would be in line for a raise in his final season of arbitration. His current trajectory points towards a non-tender. That’d be true on virtually every team and is particularly the case for a Milwaukee organization that has tended not to value the slugging first baseman highly (i.e. non-tendering Chris Carter in 2016 and declining a net $6.5MM option on Eric Thames three years later).

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Diamondbacks Place Merrill Kelly On IL, Option Joe Mantiply

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The Diamondbacks announced a series of roster moves today, with right-hander Merrill Kelly being placed on the 15-day injured list due to right calf inflammation, retroactive to June 25. They also optioned left-hander Joe Mantiply to Triple-A Reno. In corresponding moves, righties Kevin Ginkel and Justin Martinez were recalled from Reno.

At this point, it’s unclear how serious Kelly’s injury is, but it’s a notable loss for the club nonetheless. The Diamondbacks have a fairly top-heavy rotation with Kelly and Zac Gallen being the two most effective members. Gallen has an excellent 2.84 ERA on the year and Kelly isn’t far behind with a 3.22 mark. Then there’s a notable drop to the 4.31 ERA of Tommy Henry, the 4.97 of Ryne Nelson and the 7.82 of Zach Davies.

The Diamondbacks are leading the National League West but have a couple of clubs on their heels as each of the Dodgers and Giants are within three games. With the All-Star break now effectively two weeks away, they will have to forge ahead without Kelly for at least that long. Drey Jameson has been with the big league club in a long relief role and could perhaps step into the rotation. Brandon Pfaadt got some big league starts earlier this year but posted an 8.37 ERA in those before getting optioned back down. Konnor Pilkington is also on the 40-man but has been struggling in the minors this year.

As for Mantiply, he posted a 2.85 ERA last year and even got selected to the All-Star game but has taken a step back this year. He’s gone on the injured list a couple of times already, once due to left shoulder inflammation and another time for a right hamstring strain. Around those ailments, he’s tossed 15 2/3 innings with a 5.74 ERA. His peripherals are still pretty similar to last year’s as a 50.8% strand rate seems to be pushing his ERA up. Nonetheless, he now finds himself headed to Reno to get into a groove.

Martinez, 21, will be making his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game. He served largely as a starting pitcher in the lower levels of the minors but required Tommy John surgery in 2021. After a long injury layoff and the minor leagues getting cancelled by the pandemic in 2020, he came back as a reliever last year. He tossed 38 innings across four different levels, finishing the year at Triple-A. He posted a 3.32 ERA in that time with an incredible 36.7% strikeout rate but 13% walk rate.

Despite the free passes, the club was intrigued enough to add him to the roster in November to prevent him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. This year, he’s been in Triple-A, tossing 28 innings thus far. He has a 4.18 ERA, striking out 29.7% of opponents but with an astonishing 21.1% walk rate. Despite the control issues, he was recently ranked the club’s #21 prospect at Baseball America and #12 at FanGraphs.

Rockies Select Matt Koch

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The Rockies announced that they have selected the contract of right-hander Matt Koch. They already had an open roster spot on both their 40-man and active rosters, meaning no corresponding move will be necessary.

Koch, 32, signed a minor league deal with the Rockies over the offseason and has been in Triple-A this year. He’s tossed 34 2/3 innings over 29 appearances with a 7.27 ERA but stronger peripherals in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. His 21.5% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate are each close to typical major league averages, but his .362 batting average on balls in play and 59.3% strand rate are on the unfriendly side of par. That’s led to a 5.90 FIP that’s more than a full run better than his ERA.

Prior to this season, he appeared in 40 big league games with the Diamondbacks and Mariners dating back to 2016. He has an ERA of 5.00 in those, striking out just 13.2% of opponents but limiting walks to a 5.3% clip.

The Rockies’ pitching staff has been stretched in recent days after they were trounced 25-1 by the Angels on Saturday. They then optioned Karl Kauffmann and recalled Nick Mears before bouncing back with a 4-3 victory on Sunday. After that game, they optioned Noah Davis and have now brought up Koch to keep a fresh arm on hand. Koch is out of options but has just over a year of service time.

Cubs To Select Jared Young

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3:30pm: Infielder Miles Mastrobuoni was optioned in a corresponding active roster move, per Sullivan. Left-hander Brandon Hughes, who will require season-ending surgery, has been transferred to the 60-day IL to open a 40-man spot for Young.

3:05pm: The Cubs will be selecting the contract of infielder/outfielder Jared Young, reports Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. Young’s presence at Wrigley Field was first reported on Twitter by @crawlyscubs. Young isn’t on the club’s 40-man roster, so they will have to make a corresponding move or moves in order to make room for him.

Young, 27, was selected to the club’s roster in September of last year and got a cup of coffee in the majors. He had a solid .263/.364/.368 line in 22 plate appearances but was outrighted off the roster in November. He’s spent all of this year mashing in Triple-A. He has 13 home runs in 52 games while walking in 13.8% of his plate appearances and striking out at just a 20.5% rate. His .326/.426/.605 batting line amounts to a 154 wRC+, indicating he’s been 54% better than league average.

Defensively, he’s played a bit of third base and the outfield corners but has seen most of his time at first base. The Cubs haven’t gotten much production at the cold corner this year, as Eric Hosmer hit .234/.280/.330 on the year. He was released and replaced by Matt Mervis, who slashed .167/.242/.289 before getting optioned to the minors. The club returned Cody Bellinger from the injured list before he was 100%, hoping to have him at first instead of his usual center field position but he’s hit just .160/.214/.200 since being activated. Trey Mancini has also seen some time there and hit a tepid .245/.317/.364 on the year.

With all those struggles, it’s understandable that the Cubs are looking for new approaches, especially as they’ve now climbed back into contention. Their 37-39 record isn’t especially impressive but they are just three games back of the lead in the wide open National League Central and they have the best run differential in the division. They’ll now give Young a chance to test his skills against big league pitching again, with just over a month before the club will have to decide whether or not to pursue upgrades at the trade deadline.

Mariners Designate Chris Flexen For Assignment

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2:55pm: MLBTR’s Steve Adams reports that Flexen can reject an outright assignment while retaining his whole salary. Unless the Mariners work out a trade in the next week, he will almost certainly wind up on the open market.

2:10pm: The Mariners announced that right-hander Trevor Gott has been reinstated from the injured list with fellow righty Chris Flexen designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

Flexen losing his roster spot is totally unsurprising given his results this season but it’s a shocking turn of events compared to where things stood just a few months ago. After a successful stint in the KBO in 2020, Flexen returned to North America by signing a two-year deal with the Mariners, with an option for 2023 as well.

The guaranteed portion of that agreement went quite well, with Flexen tossing 317 1/3 innings over 2021 and 2022 with a 3.66 ERA. His 16.5% strikeout rate in that time wasn’t especially strong, but his 6.8% walk rate showed strong control. He also did a good job keeping the ball from going over the fence, as his 8.8% home run per fly ball rate was third-best in the league among pitchers with at least 300 innings pitcher. His pitcher-friendly ballpark may have had an impact but his 3.75 road ERA was only slightly higher than his 3.57 mark at T-Mobile Park.

The 2023 option on his contract could be vested at $8MM if Flexen tossed 300 innings over the first two years, which he did. With the M’s having five other rotation options in Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert and Marco Gonzales, that led to Flexen getting interest in trade talks over the offseason.

The Mariners ultimately held onto Flexen for some extra rotation depth, which seemed like a wise move when Ray quickly landed on the injured list and eventually required Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately, Flexen couldn’t step up and take the open rotation spot, getting torched for a 10.38 ERA in four starts before getting bumped back to the bullpen.

His next five outings were scoreless but he’s allowed at least one earned run in his past seven appearances. Whatever skill or luck he previously deployed to prevent home runs has eluded him this year, as he’s already given up 11 long balls, leading to a 21.6% HR/FB rate that’s more than double his clip from the previous two campaigns. Overall, he has a 7.71 ERA on the year in 42 innings, which has bumped him off Seattle’s roster.

The Mariners will now have a week to trade Flexen or pass him through waivers. He garnered interest over the winter and some of those clubs could now circle back, especially with so many pitching injuries throughout the league, though Flexen’s poor results this season will obviously tamp down whatever trade value he previously had. With approximately $4.1MM still remaining on his contract, the M’s would surely have to swallow some or all of that in order to facilitate a deal.

As for the waiver route, that will be an interesting factor here. Normally, players with more than three years of service time can reject an outright assignment in favor of electing free agency, but they require five years of service to do so while retaining their salary. Assuming those normal rules apply and Flexen goes on to clear waivers, he obviously wouldn’t leave that money on the table and would therefore stick in the Mariners’ organization as depth. However, players coming from stints in other countries like Japan, Korea or Cuba often have language in their contracts that allows them to circumvent the normal service time rules. For instance, MLBTR confirmed this winter that Flexen would become a free agent after 2023 even though he would be well shy of six years’ of service time. Whether the M’s can potentially keep Flexen as depth or not will have an impact on how much they are willing to trade him.

Braves Sign Charlie Culberson, Seth Elledge To Minor League Deals

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The Braves re-signed veteran utilityman Charlie Culberson to a new minor league contract just days after he rejected an outright assignment in favor of free agency, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. Righty Seth Elledge, who also elected free agency following a recent DFA (by the Tigers), has also signed a minor league deal with Atlanta. It’s his second stint in the organization.

Culberson, 34, didn’t appear in a game with the Braves after being selected to the big league roster earlier this month. He’s spent the season in Triple-A Gwinnett, where he’s batted .204/.234/.255 in 107 plate appearances. A veteran who’s accrued more than seven years of MLB service over parts of ten big league seasons, Culberson also spent the 2018-20 seasons in Atlanta, hitting .265/.314/.454 in 473 plate appearances. Along the way, he endeared himself to the Atlanta faithful with a series of clutch hits, including multiple memorable walk-off home runs.

While Culberson hasn’t hit especially well this season, he’ll return to the Braves organization to remain on hand as a possible depth option and a mentor to up-and-coming infielders like Vaughn Grissom and Braden Shewmake. And, if the Braves feel they need some additional infield depth but don’t want to take either of those young players out of an everyday role to sit on the big league bench, Culberson could again be summoned for a short-term look at the MLB level. His versatility would make him a reasonable addition when rosters slightly expand in September, too.

Elledge, 27, was with the Braves in 2022 and opened the season in the organization this year. Atlanta designated him for assignment on April 8, and he’s since bounced to the Mets and Tigers on waivers before being designated in Detroit and electing free agency after clearing waivers.

In 23 1/3 career innings at the MLB level — all with the Cardinals — Elledge has a 4.63 ERA, 24% strikeout rate and 14.4% walk rate. In 2022, he posted a 3.88 ERA and gaudy 33.7% strikeout rate for the Braves’ Gwinnett affiliate, but he’s found rougher waters so far in 2023. Through 28 2/3 frames between the Triple-A affiliates of the Braves, Mets and Tigers, Elledge has been tagged for a 5.34 ERA. He’s had more success with the Braves’ Triple-A club than any other stop in his tour of the upper minors, so he’ll return to what’s seemingly a comfortable setting and look to build on that success with an eye toward a return to the big league roster.

Cubs, Shane Greene Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Cubs have agreed to a minor league deal with veteran right-handed reliever Shane Greene, per the transaction log at MLB.com. The Ballengee Group client been assigned to Cubs’ affiliate in the Arizona Complex League for now, presumably to build up before joining the their Triple-A club in Iowa; Greene has yet to pitch for any team this season.

Greene, 34, had a strong run as a setup man and closer from 2017-20 between the Tigers and Braves. In 221 1/3 innings during that four-year peak, he posted a 3.25 ERA with a 24.2% strikeout rate, 8.6% walk rate, 33 holds and 64 saves. All but one of those saves came with Detroit. Atlanta acquired Greene at the 2019 trade deadline — sending lefty Joey Wentz and outfielder Travis Demeritte to the Tigers in return — but deployed him primarily as a setup man following the swap.

Following the trade, Greene posted a serviceable 4.01 ERA down the stretch for them in ’19 and went on to enjoy a solid 2020 campaign with Atlanta. However, that marks the most recent bit of MLB success for the right-hander. Greene was a late signee in May 2021, ultimately returning to the Braves only to see his results crater. He was torched for 16 runs in 17 innings to begin his ’21 season (8.47 ERA), and things were only marginally better in a brief nine-game cup of coffee with the Dodgers after being released in Atlanta.

Greene saw brief looks with the Dodgers and Yankees in 2022 but only pitched a total of three MLB innings. Overall, since the conclusion of the 2020 campaign, he has just 29 2/3 innings with a dismal 7.09 ERA to show for it. His sinker, which averaged 95 mph during his best year with the Tigers, averaged just 92.6 mph in 2021 and sat at 91.3 mph during last year’s tiny sample of big league work.

Swift decline notwithstanding, Greene represents a no-risk flier for a Cubs team that regularly rolls the dice on veteran rebound candidates in the bullpen. It hasn’t always worked in their favor, of course, but the Cubs have netted strong returns on minimal investments for names like Andrew Chafin, David Robertson, Ryan Tepera, Mychal Givens and Mark Leiter Jr. (among others) in sticking to this approach in recent years. They’ll hope to add Greene’s name to that list of successes in the coming months.

The Opener: Manning, Muncy, MLBTR Chat

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With two weeks remaining until the All Star break, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Manning to return:

The Tigers are poised to welcome one of their young starters back from the 60-day injured list today, as right-hander Matt Manning is expected to start tonight’s game against the Rangers. Manning, out since April with a fractured foot, posted a 4.63 ERA in 11 2/3 innings of work across two starts prior to the injury. He’ll need to be added back to the 40-man and active rosters before he can make his start today, teeing up the possibility of multiple corresponding transactions ahead of this evening’s game.

Detroit’s rotation has been ravaged by injuries. Alex Faedo, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Spencer Turnbull are each currently on the injured list in addition to Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize, who both have yet to throw a pitch this season. Those rotation woes could worsen yet, as left-hander Matthew Boyd left yesterday’s start in Texas with elbow discomfort. As noted by Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press, manager AJ Hinch indicated to reporters that Boyd will undergo testing today to determine if he will need a trip to the injured list.

2. Muncy to return:

Dodgers slugger Max Muncy is expected to return to the lineup today, with manager Dave Roberts having previously indicated the infielder will play third base upon his return. Muncy’s return figures to provide the Dodgers with a significant power boost, as the 32-year-old has connected for 18 home runs in just 251 plate appearances this season.

Muncy’s return to the lineup figures to displace 25-year-old Michael Busch, who has been covering third base in the absence of Muncy and utilityman Chris Taylor. However, Roberts recently indicated to reporters (including Jack Harris of The L.A. Times) that Busch could continue to draw starts by shifting over to second base following Muncy’s return. That would take playing time from 23-year-old Miguel Vargas, who has struggled to a .150/.246/.300 slash line in 70 plate appearances this month. Busch has also struggled since his June 16 recall from Triple-A, posting a similar slash line of .192/.250/.308 in a smaller sample of 28 plate appearances. Using both players in a timeshare at second base could offer Roberts the opportunity to optimize matchups for the youngsters going forward.

3. MLBTR Chat Today:

With MLB’s trade deadline just over a month away, many expected contenders headed into the season are finding their paths to the playoffs getting slimmer and slimmer. If the events of the season so far have spurred any questions in your mind about your favorite team or the league as a whole, MLBTR’s Steve Adams is holding a live chat with readers at 1pm CT today. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.

MLB Announces Futures Game Rosters

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Major League Baseball announced rosters for the 2023 Futures Game this evening. The contest — a seven-inning exhibition between some of the sport’s most talented minor leaguers — kicks off All-Star festivities in Seattle on Saturday, July 8.

As Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com notes, 28 of the 50 players on the roster are included on MLB Pipeline’s recent Top 100 prospects list. Six of Pipeline’s top ten will participate. The full rosters (MLB Pipeline prospect rank included, if applicable):

American League

National League

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