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Dodgers Select Gavin Stone, Option Alex Vesia

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May 3: The Dodgers have formally selected Stone’s contract, per a team announcement. He brings their 40-man roster up to a count of 39 players. Lefty Alex Vesia was optioned to Triple-A Oklahoma City in order to open a spot on the active roster.

Vesia has been hit hard in 13 appearances this season, yielding a 7.84 ERA in 10 1/3 innings with a 25.4% strikeout rate that’s better than league-average but vastly worse than the 34% he posted in 2021-22. Vesia’s average fastball velocity has held steady at 94.2 mph, but he’s giving up more hard contact than he ever has with the Dodgers; after yielding an 87.2 mph average exit velocity and 34.6% hard-hit rate in 2021-22, he’s at 91 mph and 44.7% so far in the young 2023 season.

April 30: According to MLB.com’s Juan Toribio, the Dodgers are planning on selecting the contract of right-hander Gavin Stone to start Wednesday’s game against the Phillies. Stone is not currently on the 40-man roster, and so a corresponding move will be required to clear space for the youngster.

Stone, 24, is ranked 49th on MLB Pipeline’s top 100 prospect list, 60th over at Fangraphs, and 51st at Baseball America. A fifth round pick from the 2020 draft by the Dodgers, Stone broke out in a big way last season with a 1.48 ERA in 121 2/3 innings of work that saw him strike out 33.8% of batters faced alongside a solid 8.9% walk rate.

That performance saw Stone get promoted twice, with just 25 innings at High-A before moving to the upper minors. After a 23 1/3 inning stint at Triple-A to close out the 2022 season, Stone impressed in spring training with 14 strikeouts in just 6 2/3 innings, but struggled to open the 2023 season when he returned to Triple-A, allowing six runs while recording just eight outs in his season debut. He’s posted a 2.86 ERA in 22 innings since that blowup outing, however, showing more than enough talent to justify a start in the big leagues.

It’s not currently clear if Stone’s call to the majors will last beyond Wednesday’s start. The Dodgers currently sport a five man rotation of Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, and Noah Syndergaard. With no one in that group currently known to be injured, it’s possible that, should Stone stick in the rotation, LA opts to use a six-man rotation for awhile.

That being said, Syndergaard has struggled mightily to a 6.58 ERA over five starts to this point in the season. That ugly top-level run prevention number is supported by a 5.06 FIP, a well-below average 18.3% strikeout rate, and a groundball rate of just 37.2%. Given his struggles, it’s possible that Stone could replace Syndergaard in the rotation if the youngster excels and the 30-year-old right-hander continues to struggle.

In heading to the majors on Wednesday, Stone joins a youth movement in LA that has seen both infielder Miguel Vargas and outfielder James Outman in the lineup on a regular basis and Michael Grove take four starts to open the season before heading to the injured list with a groin strain. 24-year-old right-hander Ryan Pepiot was meant to break camp with the club as well, but suffered an oblique strain at the end of the spring that has sidelined him to this point in the season.

Even with Stone now poised to reach the big leagues, the Dodgers still have multiple top prospects who could make their major league debuts sometime this year, including right-hander Bobby Miller, outfielder Andy Pages, and catcher Diego Cartaya.

Rays Acquire Chase Anderson

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10:20am: The Rays announced that they’ve acquired Anderson from the Reds in exchange for cash.

7:52am: The Rays have reportedly acquired right-hander Chase Anderson from the Reds, according to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman. The return headed the Reds’ way is not currently known, though it’s unlikely to be substantial.

Anderson, 35, is a veteran of nine MLB seasons who has yet to make his 2023 debut in the majors. For the first six seasons of his career, Anderson was more or less a solid back-end start in the majors with a 3.94 ERA (106 ERA+) and 4.54 FIP along with a 20.2% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate in 857 innings of work. A propensity for giving up homers has limited Anderson’s production throughout his career, with 12.8% of his fly balls leaving the yard over the first six seasons of his career. That rate was above 10% in each of those years except for 2017, which was unsurprisingly a career year for Anderson where he pitched to a phenomenal 2.74 ERA that was 60% better than league average by measure of ERA+.

In the years following that stretch, however, Anderson has struggled badly. In 105 2/3 innings of work, Anderson has posted a 6.81 ERA (64 ERA+) and 5.78 FIP over 105 2/3 innings for the Blue Jays, Phillies, and Reds. During these three seasons, Anderson’s strikeout rate has stayed roughly the same (20.3%). While  his walk rate has ticked up slightly (9.5%), the main culprit of Anderson’s struggles has been the long ball once again, as Anderson has watched an astounding 19.2% of his fly balls result in home runs.

Anderson re-signed in Cincinnati on a minor league deal back in February and competed for a spot on the big league roster during Spring Training, but was ultimately re-assigned to minor league camp. Anderson has posted a decent 4.30 ERA in his 23 innings of work at Triple-A this year. As an Article XX(B) free agent, Anderson had the right to opt-out of his deal with the Reds on Monday.

Despite their phenomenal 24-6 record, the Rays have struggled to field a full rotation in the early going this season after weathering injuries to Jeffrey Springs and Tyler Glasnow. Anderson, should he pitch in the majors for the Rays, seems likely to fill a bulk role alongside the likes of Yonny Chirinos and Josh Fleming as the Rays mix and match options behind Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, and Zach Eflin. The Rays, of course, have a long track record of helping struggling arms on the fringe of the majors establish themselves and maximize their performance. They’ll surely try to do the same with Anderson, given not only his previously demonstrated ability to be a serviceable back-end rotation member, but the flash of potential beyond that he showed in 2017.

Rockies Exploring Rotation Additions

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The Rockies’ starting pitching has, rather predictably, been a major weakness in 2023, with their rotation’s collective 5.94 ERA ranking 28th in the Majors. Colorado starters have baseball’s second-lowest strikeout rate (17.4%), seventh-highest walk rate (9.5%), third-highest HR/9 mark (1.85) and the third-fewest innings (141). Even at full strength, the Rockies’ rotation never looked like a strong group on paper, but they’ve now lost top starter German Marquez to Tommy John surgery and have already released Jose Ureña after he was trounced for 22 runs (20 earned) in 18 1/3 innings. Rookie right-hander Noah Davis recently landed on the injured list as well, thanks to a bout of elbow inflammation.

Given those struggles, it’s hardly a surprise that general manager Bill Schmidt plainly acknowledged to Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette that his team will explore the current crop of free agents for some potential rotation help. “Last year at this time, we picked up Ureña,” said Schmidt. “We’ll look at the free agents available and try to improve our depth.”

Colorado is expecting the return of righty Antonio Senzatela on Friday, when he’s set to make his first big league start since tearing his ACL last year. He can give them a boost over the production they’ve received to date, but Senzatela himself was struggling at the time of his injury last year, having posted a 5.07 ERA with a career-low 13.1% strikeout rate in 92 1/3 innings. He’s allowed 10 runs (seven earned) on 13 hits in 6 1/3 innings on a rehab assignment in Triple-A.

Senzatela, who’s in the second season of a five-year, $50.5MM extension that runs through the 2026 campaign, will join left-handers Kyle Freeland and Austin Gomber as well as righties Ryan Feltner and Connor Seabold in the Rockies’ starting mix when he returns. Freeland and Feltner have both been solid through six starts apiece, but Gomber has been tagged for a 7.57 ERA in six turns while Seabold has been pitching in relief but will likely get some starts following the recent injuries and Urena’s release.

As for potential help on the open market, options are scarce — as one would expect this time of year. Madison Bumgarner was recently released by the D-backs, though his struggles in Arizona were significant and his velocity is down several miles per hour from his Giants peak. Julio Teheran opted out of a minor league deal with the Padres yesterday, though he’s had a tough start to his season in Triple-A. Alternatively, the Marlins designated southpaw Devin Smeltzer for assignment earlier in the week, so he could be available via a small trade or waiver claim.

All three of those pitchers are at least already stretched out and largely game-ready, which is more than can be said for a number of their peers who remain unsigned dating back to the offseason (e.g. Chris Archer, Mike Minor, Michael Pineda, Anibal Sanchez). The Rox could still add anyone from that group, of course, but they’d likely need to build up at extended spring training and go out on a minor league assignment before being an option at Coors Field. Internally, righty Peter Lambert is being handled carefully after pitching just 30 1/3 innings from 2020-22 due to injuries (including Tommy John surgery). Former big leaguers Logan Allen and Josh Rogers are out to shaky starts in Triple-A, as are upper-level minor leaguers like Karl Kauffmann and Jeff Criswell.

It’s a thin group all-around, to say the last. Schmidt tells Allentuck that the Rockies attempted to add more depth over the winter but were largely unsuccessful. It’s a difficulty the Rockies face every year. Free-agent pitchers are generally averse to signing to pitch at altitude, and even Colorado’s Triple-A affiliate in Albuquerque plays in an extremely hitter-friendly setting. That could make it difficult to lure in further depth right now, but if the Rox are willing to offer a 40-man spot to someone like Teheran when other clubs aren’t, he’d very likely opt for the big league opportunity over another minor league pact.

The Opener: Scherzer, Prospect Debuts, Sanchez

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On the heels of a morning trade, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Scherzer’s return:

Mets ace Max Scherzer is set to take the ball in the second game of the club’s double-header against the Tigers this evening. Today’s start will be both Scherzer’s first return to Comerica Park since 2019 and his first start since he was suspended for foreign substance use after being ejected from his April 19 start against the Dodgers. Over four starts this season Scherzer has pitched solidly, though not up to his usual Hall of Fame caliber standards, with a 3.72 ERA in 19 1/3 innings of work.

2. Prospect debuts in the NL West:

A pair of teams out west are set to make their major league debut this afternoon. Gavin Stone will take the ball for the Dodgers against the Phillies in his first major league appearance, while Brandon Pfaadt of the Diamondbacks will suit up against the Rangers in Texas to begin his major league career. Both players are widely ranked among the top 100 prospect in the sport, and both have dominated Triple-A to identical ERAs of 3.00 over the past two seasons, though Pfaadt has done so over 87 innings of work while Stone has only logged 48 innings at the level. Beyond the identical date of their MLB debuts, their similar prospect rankings and their status as potentially long-term division rivals, Pfaadt and Stone were born on the same day (Oct. 15, 1998) and were selected just ten picks apart in the fifth round of the 2020 draft.

3. Sanchez returns to free agency:

Veteran catcher Gary Sanchez opted-out of his minor league deal with the Giants yesterday, deciding to return to free agency after not being called up to the big league club as San Francisco opted to stick with Joey Bart and Blake Sabol behind the plate. Sanchez’s free agency will be one to watch, with a handful of injuries behind the plate early in the season. In addition to San Francisco’s loss of Roberto Perez, the Angels recently lost catcher Logan O’Hoppe for the year, and the Mets will be without Omar Narvaez for at least another month.

Germán Márquez To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Rockies right-hander Germán Márquez will require Tommy John surgery, he tells reporters, including Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette.

Needless to say, it’s a very unfortunate piece of news for both the pitcher and the team. Márquez has been the club’s best pitcher in recent years, posting a 4.41 ERA in 1,016 career innings. Given that he plays his home games at the hitter haven of Coors Field, it’s fair to assume that ERA doesn’t truly reflect his skill level. His 4.02 FIP and 3.96 SIERA perhaps offer a better indication of the level of production he’s had thus far.

This year, he made just three starts before landing on the injured list with a forearm strain, though an MRI revealed no structural damage and he was back with the club after a brief absence. However, in his first outing off the IL, he walked off the field after 3 2/3 innings in obvious distress. The update after the game was that the damage was to his triceps and not his elbow, which seemed encouraging. But when he was put back on the IL a couple days later, he expressed worry that Tommy John surgery would eventually be required, which now seems to have come to fruition.

A club losing their best pitcher is bad news at any time, but it’s especially rough for a Colorado club that’s out to a 9-20 start this year. Few observers were predicting them to contend this year and they seem to be progressing about as expected. The absence of Márquez will not only decrease their chances of getting back into the playoff race but also deprive the club of arguably their best summer trade candidate.

Back in 2019, the Rockies and Márquez agreed to a $43MM contract extension that runs through 2023, though there’s a $16MM club option for 2024 with a $2.5MM buyout. The Rockies are notoriously reticent to move their players even when it makes logical sense to do so, but they would have likely at least considered a Márquez trade this summer, given the challenges they would have faced in turning a struggling team into a contender during his window of control.

Given the standard 14 to 18 months of recovery required after TJS, Márquez will be out of action for the remainder of this season and at least the first half of 2024 as well. That makes it likely that the Rockies will take the $2.5MM buyout instead of the $16MM option next year, which will send Márquez to the open market, though the two sides could also work out another extension if they so wish. In the event that he does wind up a free agent this winter, he’ll be looking to market himself at a time when he’s still recovering and won’t be available immediately.

For now, the Rockies will have to turn their attention to getting through this year. Márquez is already on the injured list, alongside starters like Antonio Senzatela, Noah Davis and Ryan Rolison. Senzatela has been on the IL all season after suffering a torn ACL last year but he seems to be nearing a return. Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post relays that the righty is in the clubhouse and is likely to be activated and start a game this weekend.

He’ll join Kyle Freeland, Austin Gomber and Ryan Feltner in the rotation, which will still leave the club shorthanded. Connor Seabold tossed 67 pitches in a long relief outing on Saturday and could perhaps take a turn. Peter Lambert is on the 40-man roster but hasn’t thrown more than three innings in any of his minor league starts so far this year.

Perhaps Davis could return sooner rather than later, as he tells Saunders that he would encouraged by his tests and doesn’t think it’s a major injury. But there’s still no firm timeline and he won’t be eligible to be reinstated for a couple of weeks even if the issue is minor.

Diamondbacks To Promote Brandon Pfaadt

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The Diamondbacks are going to promote pitching prospect Brandon Pfaadt to make his major league debut tomorrow, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. The right-hander isn’t currently on the club’s 40-man roster, meaning they will need to open a spot for him between now and then.

Pfaadt, 24, was a fifth round pick of the club in the 2020 draft. The minor leagues were canceled by the pandemic that year, but Pfaadt emerged with a strong showing in 2021. He rose through three levels of the minors, going from Single-A to High-A and Double-A that year, tossing 131 2/3 innings total with a combined 3.21 ERA. He struck out 30.2% of batters faced while walking just 5.3%. After that strong showing, he was ranked the club’s #10 prospect by Baseball America going into 2022.

Last year, Pfaadt would continue to impress, throwing 167 innings between Double-A and Triple-A  with a 3.83 ERA, 31.6% strikeout rate and 4.6% walk rate. Going into this season, he was ranked the club’s #5 prospect by BA but amazingly was #26 in the entire league, highlighting a strong and top-heavy system loaded with premier prospects. Their report highlights his fastball, which averages around 93-94mph and has natural cutting action. His slider is his putaway pitch but he also has a changeup and a curveball. He is listed as the #51 prospect in the league at MLB Pipeline, #16 at FanGraphs, #32 at ESPN and was ranked #38 by Keith Law of The Athletic.

The righty was sent to Triple-A to start this year, where he’s posted a 3.91 ERA through five starts, striking out 28.6% of opponents while walking just 5.7%. As he’s been doing that, the Diamondbacks have been playing well, 16-13 record, despite an inconsistent rotation. Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly have been their typically excellent selves so far this year, but the rest of the group hasn’t been nearly as strong. Madison Bumgarner got released after posting a 10.26 ERA in his first four starts. Ryne Nelson has a 6.39 ERA after six outings while Tommy Henry has a 6.52 after a pair. Zach Davies is on the injured list with an oblique strain while Drey Jameson was optioned out after some struggles.

Amid all of that uncertainty, the club will give Pfaadt a shot and see how he fares against big league hitters. Since the season is over a month old already, he won’t be able to earn a full year of service time, at least not the traditional way. The latest collective bargaining agreement has a couple of measures to discourage teams from trying to manipulate a player’s service time and delay their free agency. One of those measures is that a player can still get a full service year even if they didn’t spend the requisite 172 days in the majors. Any player with less than 60 days’ service time at the start of a season who is on two of the top 100 prospect lists at Baseball America, ESPN or MLB Pipeline can still get a full year if they finish in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting. Both Adley Rutschman and Michael Harris II managed to get a full year of service this way last year.

Pfaadt is on all three lists and could follow that path, though it will be a bit of a challenge. He will have to chase down other rookies who have already spent a month accruing stats, such as James Outman or his teammate Corbin Carroll. But for the Diamondbacks, it’s an exciting time as Pfaadt joins Carroll, Gabriel Moreno and other exciting young players on the roster, with prospects like Jordan Lawlar and Druw Jones set to join them in the upstart D’Backs in the years to come.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Rockies Outright Ty Blach

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Rockies left-hander Ty Blach has gone unclaimed on waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A Albuquerque, tweets Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette. As a player who has previously been outrighted in his career, he’ll have the right to decline the assignment in favor of minor league free agency.

Blach spent the 2022 campaign in Colorado. The Denver native first signed with his hometown franchise going into last year and made the MLB roster in the season’s first week. He bounced between the majors and Triple-A, working 44 1/3 innings of 5.89 ERA ball at the highest level. At year’s end, Colorado outrighted him and sent him to free agency. Blach returned on a minor league pact a couple months into the offseason and earned another MLB job out of Spring Training.

The 32-year-old southpaw appeared in six games through the season’s first month. He tossed 11 innings, allowing 13 runs (10 earned) with four strikeouts and two walks. While Blach has never been one to miss many bats, this year’s 4.6% swinging strike percentage was the lowest of his career. Colorado took him off the roster over the weekend when Randal Grichuk returned from the injured list.

Blach has now appeared in parts of six big league campaigns. Between the Giants, Orioles and Rockies, he carries a 5.19 ERA in 381 2/3 innings. Most of his early-career work was out of the rotation but he’s pitched primarily in shorter stints since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2020.

Angels’ Jose Quijada, Austin Warren To Miss Extended Stretches

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A pair of Angels relievers are in for long-term absences. Left-hander José Quijada has been on the 15-day injured list due to elbow inflammation. Halos skipper Phil Nevin told reporters this evening that an MRI revealed ligament damage (relayed by Sam Blum of the Athletic). Things are slightly better for right-hander Austin Warren. He’s being shut down from throwing for four-to-six weeks due to elbow discomfort of his own, tweets Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com.

It’s particularly unfortunate news for Quijada. The 27-year-old is sure to be shut down for some time. Elbow ligament damage raises the possibility of surgery. That’s still to be determined, with Nevin noting that Quijada is headed for a second opinion.

Initially claimed off waivers from the Marlins over the 2019-20 offseason, Quijada has been a situational relief option for the Halos for the past three-plus years. He owns a 4.56 ERA in 79 frames as an Angel. He’d allowed seven runs (six earned) with eight strikeouts and three walks in nine innings of relief this season.

Quijada entered the season with over two years of major league service. He’ll be eligible for arbitration for the first time next winter. If he’s forced to undergo surgery that costs him the bulk of the 2023 campaign, he’d be a non-tender candidate.

Warren, also 27, has made 32 appearances over the past three seasons. The former sixth round selection had a 1.77 ERA in 20 1/3 innings as a rookie but allowed nearly six earned runs per nine over 16 frames last year. The Halos ran him through waivers and outrighted him off the 40-man roster over the offseason. They reselected his contract in mid-April before losing him to injury two appearances in.

While it doesn’t seem there’s any consideration of surgery in Warren’s case, the lengthy shutdown means he’s likely out for multiple months. He’d need to rebuild strength through a throwing program and minor league rehab work before he’s in consideration for MLB action. Even barring any setbacks, he could be out until around the All-Star Break. Both Quijada and Warren could find themselves on the 60-day injured list as the Halos manage their 40-man roster over the coming weeks.

Nationals To Recall Jake Irvin For MLB Debut

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The Nationals are recalling right-hander Jake Irvin from Triple-A Rochester, manager Dave Martinez told the team’s beat (relayed by Andrew Golden of the Washington Post). He’ll start tomorrow evening’s game against the Cubs in what’ll be his big league debut. Washington optioned right-hander Cory Abbott to open a spot on the active roster.

Irvin, 26, has been in the organization for four-plus seasons. The Nats selected the Oklahoma product in the fourth round of the 2018 draft. The 6’6″ hurler has appeared towards the back half of the organization’s top 30 prospects since that point. Baseball America has slotted him between 10th and 23rd over the past four years, including the #22 placement last winter.

Keith Law of the Athletic slotted Irvin 11th in the system. Both Law and BA write that Irvin’s heater sits in the mid-90s. They each praise an above-average to plus curveball while raising questions about his changeup. Baseball America suggests he’s a likely back-of-the-rotation type, while Law feels he’s likelier to settle into a bullpen role.

The Nationals added Irvin to their 40-man roster last November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. That came on the heels of a 3.83 ERA showing in 24 starts between High-A Wilmington and Double-A Harrisburg. He logged five innings in big league Spring Training before being optioned to Rochester for his first Triple-A work. Irvin has taken the ball five times for the Red Wings, working to a 5.64 ERA across 22 2/3 innings. His 20.4% strikeout rate and 11.2% walk percentage are each a little worse than average.

Washington has a vacancy in the final rotation spot. The Nats placed Chad Kuhl on the 15-day injured list yesterday. While it initially seemed as if Abbott would take the fifth starting role, he pitched two innings of relief on Monday before being optioned back out. If Irvin can get out on a strong foot in his MLB career, he could vie for a back-end role behind Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore, Trevor Williams and Patrick Corbin. Kuhl had struggled prior to his IL stint, so his hold on a rotation job could be tenuous even once he recovers from the toe sprain that knocked him out of action.

The Trade That Started The Current Era Of White Sox Baseball

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At the end of the 2016 season, the White Sox found themselves at a remove from recent success. They hadn’t posted a winning record since 2012 and hadn’t made the postseason since 2008. There was some talent on the roster but it was decided that it was time to hit the reset button. After much speculation, they gave a clear indication that they were going into a rebuild in December of 2016 when they traded left-hander Chris Sale to the Red Sox for prospects Yoán Moncada, Michael Kopech, Luis Alexander Basabe and Victor Diaz.

Sale was already well established as one of the better pitchers in the game. At the time of the trade, he had thrown 1110 innings with an even ERA of 3.00, striking out 27.9% of batters faced while walking just 5.8% and getting grounders at a solid 43.8% clip. The White Sox had signed him to an extension going into 2013, a deal that ran through 2017 but with two affordable club options after that. Flipping an excellent pitcher with three affordable years of control left little doubt that a significant teardown was beginning.

The trade worked out very well for the Red Sox, as they would make the postseason in two of those three years with Sale, including winning the World Series in 2018. They then signed him to another extension going into 2019, which is a separate matter. Injuries have largely prevented him from providing much value on that deal, but the trade still looks like a success. They gave up some future talent but saw Sale post a 2.90 ERA in 2017 and then a 2.11 in 2018 as they hoisted their fourth title in a span of 15 years after an 86-year drought.

For the Pale Hose, this was the first of several future-focused moves they would make around that time. The day after the Sale deal, they traded outfielder Adam Eaton to the Nationals for young pitchers Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo López and Dane Dunning. In July of 2017, they would send lefty José Quintana across town to the Cubs for a package headlined by prospects Dylan Cease and Eloy Jiménez. Many of the players involved in these deals would go on to form the core of the club as it returned to contention, alongside homegrown players like Tim Anderson and Luis Robert Jr..

The return on Sale needed to be huge, given his immense talent and three remaining years of cheap control. Indeed, the White Sox secured an incredibly significant prospect package, highlighted by Moncada. A high profile youngster out of Cuba, he signed with the Red Sox in March of 2015 for a $31.5MM bonus. This was back before the hard spending cap on international amateurs was put in place, but the Sox did have to pay a 100% tax because they had already exceeded their bonus pool figure, meaning they shelled out $63MM to get Moncada into the system.

He then played incredibly well in Single-A in 2015, hitting .278/.380/.438 for a wRC+ of 135. In 2016, he shot through High-A and Double-A and even made an eight-game debut in the majors. He struggled in that first taste of the show but was still just 21 years old at the time of the trade and was considered one of the top prospects in the league. Baseball America ranked him the #3 prospect in baseball going into 2016 and #2 in 2017.

Prospects with such high rankings are rarely traded, so it was a significant haul for the White Sox. The Red Sox likely have few regrets since Sale helped them to another title, but that wasn’t all Chicago got in return. Kopech was a notable prospect in his own right, having been selected in the first round of the 2014 draft. He had shown good form in the lower levels of the minors and was also on BA’s top 100 list, coming in at #89 in 2016 and was eventually placed #32 going into 2017. Basabe was a bit behind those two but was still an intriguing player, ranked Boston’s #9 prospect in 2016 and then Chicago’s #8 prospect going into 2017. Diaz was the least notable of the bunch but still cracked BA’s list of top White Sox farmhands after the deal, getting the #26 spot.

Moncada would scuffle a bit in his first two seasons in Chicago. Over 2017 and 2018, he walked in 10.9% of his trips to the plate but also struck out in 33% of them. He did hit 25 combined home runs over those two years but his .234/.321/.403 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 99, a hair below league average. In 2019, he finally broke out and showed why he had been so touted as a prospect. He launched 25 more homers that year and slashed .315/.367/.548 for a wRC+ of 139. He was also graded well for his third base defense and stole 10 bases, leading to a tally of 5.5 wins above replacement from FanGraphs, making him one of the top 20 position players that year. 2020 was set to be his final year of club control, but the White Sox decided they believed in the breakout and committed to Moncada. The two sides agreed in March of 2020 to a $70MM extension that runs through 2024 and has a club option for 2025.

It’s been a bit of a mixed bag since that deal was inked. Moncada slumped a bit in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season but the club went 35-25 and qualified for the postseason for the first time since 2008. He was back on form in 2021, hitting just 14 home runs but walking at an excellent 13.6% rate. His .263/.375/.412 line translated to a 120 wRC+ and he continued to get good grades for his glovework, leading to a 4.0 fWAR season. The Sox went 93-69 and topped the American League Central, making the postseason in consecutive years for the first time in franchise history.

2022 was a frustrating season for both player and team. Moncada made trips to the injured list for an oblique strain, a right hamstring strain and then a left hamstring strain. He got into just 104 games and didn’t play up to his usual standard when on the field. He was one of many injuries that held the club back, as they finished 81-81 and failed to extend their postseason run into a third year. He roared out of the gates here in 2023, hitting .308/.325/.564 in nine games, but he’s been on the injured list for a few weeks now due to a protruding disc in his back that’s touching a nerve.

Though he’s been inconsistent, Moncada has shown the capacity to be an excellent player when everything is clicking and he’s been a key part of the club’s recent success. It’s hard to say the same for Kopech, however, as various circumstances have prevented him from reaching the heights that had previously been imagined for him. By the time the 2018 season rolled around, Kopech was considered by BA to be the #11 prospect in the league. That year, he thrived in Triple-A, posting a 3.70 ERA over 24 starts while striking out 31.3% of batters faced. He got called up to the majors in August but made just four starts before requiring Tommy John surgery, which wiped out the remainder of that season as well as his 2019. He then opted out of the 2020 pandemic season, returning to the club in 2021. Since he had missed two whole seasons, he was kept in relief that year. He fared well in that role, registering a 3.50 ERA in 69 1/3 innings, striking out 36.1% of batters faced.

He had built up a decent innings total that would allow him to return to the rotation in 2022, but the reins weren’t completely off. He made trips to the injured list for a knee strain and shoulder inflammation, tossing 119 1/3 innings on the year. He finished with a 3.54 ERA but a diminished 21.3% strikeout rate. A .223 batting average on balls in play likely helped him skate by, with his 4.50 FIP and 4.73 SIERA showing a bit less enthusiasm. He’s struggled out of the gates early here in 2023, with a 7.01 ERA after five starts.

As for the other two players in the deal, Basabe topped out at Double-A in the White Sox’ system before getting designated for assignment in 2020. He was then traded to the Giants, who gave him a nine-game MLB stint that year before outrighting him in the winter. He returned to the White Sox on a minor league deal last year but was released after a rough showing in just nine Triple-A games. Diaz pitched in the lower levels of the system in 2017 but injuries prevented him from getting into any official action after that. His transactions tracker indicates he was officially released in 2021.

It’s too early to completely close the book on the trade from Chicago’s perspective. Moncada is still under contract through 2024 and there’s the option for 2025. Kopech can still be retained via arbitration through 2025. There’s still time for things to change, but as of right now, the deal looks like a sort of microcosm of the club’s rebuild on the whole. There have been some good moments but it hasn’t quite been the runaway success that was envisioned. Moncada has had some good years but has been inconsistent and held back by injuries. Kopech has shown flashes of his talent but hasn’t really put it all together yet.

That semi-successful return in the deal has coincided with a semi-successful stretch of contention for the club, who made the playoffs twice recently but now seem at risk of seeing it fall apart. Their 8-21 record has them in a hole that they will have to crawl out of soon or else they’ll have to consider another selloff like the one they started over six years ago.

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