Mets Claim Tyler Heineman From Blue Jays
The Mets have claimed catcher Tyler Heineman off waivers from the Blue Jays, with Anthony DiComo of MLB.com among those who relayed the news. There wasn’t any public reporting about Heineman being removed from Toronto’s roster, but they evidently tried to pass him through waivers with the Mets preventing them from succeeding. The Jays’ 40-man roster is now at 37 whereas the Mets are at 33.
Heineman, 33 in June, has played in 104 major league games, scattered over four separate seasons dating back to 2019. He has produced a batting line of .218/.297/282 in his 283 plate appearances, suiting up for the Marlins, Giants, Blue Jays and Pirates. He’s considered an above-average defender overall, grading out positively on Statcast’s blocking and throwing leaderboards. He’s also received positive marks for his pitch framing from both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.
For the Mets, Heineman figures to improve their depth behind the plate. He still has one option year remaining and is a switch-hitter, giving him flexibility to fit into the club’s plans as the season goes along. Francisco Álvarez and Omar Narváez should be the catching duo in the majors but Heineman and Cooper Hummel, another waiver claim from today, are available if an injury arises. Heineman is still shy of arbitration, meaning he can be retained beyond the upcoming season if the Mets like his work in 2024.
The Mets have been busy bolstering their depth all over the roster in recent days. They have signed one-year deals with Luis Severino, Joey Wendle and Austin Adams, brought Kyle Crick aboard via a minor league deal and now a couple of waiver claims. For the Jays, Heineman was third on the catching depth chart behind Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk. They have freed up a roster spot for future additions, perhaps in next week’s Rule 5 draft, and will likely look to sign a veteran catcher on a non-roster deal to replace Heineman.
Reds Sign Emilio Pagan
Dec. 1: The Reds have now formally announced the signing of Pagan.
Nov. 29: The Reds are reportedly in agreement with free agent reliever Emilio Pagan on a two-year, $16MM guarantee. The deal consists of matching $8MM salaries and allows Pagan, a client of the Ballengee Group, to opt out after next season. It’s a strong deal for the righty, as the contract contains incentives to boost the total further and could allow him to seek a larger contract next winter if he enjoys a good first year in Cincinnati. The agreement is still pending a physical.
Cincinnati relievers combined for a 4.11 ERA that ranked 15th in the Majors and a 4.48 FIP that ranked 23rd in 2023. In general, it’s a thin and unproven group. Closer Alexis Diaz gives the Reds one high-end arm, and lefty Sam Moll proved to be a quietly strong deadline pickup.
Beyond that, the Reds lacked established, healthy arms. Righty Tejay Antone has been one of the game’s top-performing bullpen arms when healthy, but he missed the entire 2022 season following Tommy John surgery and lasted just 5 2/3 innings in 2023 before departing a September game due to elbow discomfort that proved to be season-ending. Lucas Sims posted a stout 3.10 ERA with a strong strikeout rate in 2023 but also walked more than 15% of his opponents. Waiver pickup Ian Gibaut had a nice season (3.33 ERA), but that was the 30-year-old’s first extended run of MLB success.
Adding some stability makes sense, though the 32-year-old Pagan (33 in May) has something of a rollercoaster track record. In seven big league seasons, Pagan has pitched for five teams. At times, he’s looked the part of a bona fide late-inning force, such as his 2019 season when he saved 20 games for the Rays while logging a 2.31 ERA, 36% strikeout rate and 4.9% walk rate. At other times, Pagan has been far too hittable and displayed below-average command. From 2020-22 with the Padres and Twins, he logged a combined 4.61 ERA with a walk rate nearly double that of his excellent ’19 campaign.
Most recently, Pagan gave the 2023 Twins 69 1/3 innings of 2.99 ERA ball, fanning a solid 23.8% of his opponents against a better-than-average 7.7% walk rate. He averaged nearly 96 mph on his heater and continued career-long trends of inducing both swinging strikes and chases on pitches off the plate at above-average clips. However, Pagan’s rocky 2022 showing in Minnesota pushed him down the bullpen hierarchy; after struggling as a closer and setup man in ’22, he was used in the middle innings and lower-leverage spots this past season.
It’s at least a moderate surprise to see the Reds, in particular, wind up signing Pagan, given that the primary knock against him throughout his career has been a susceptibility to home runs. That doesn’t seem to pair well with Cincinnati’s homer-happy Great American Ball Park, although to Pagan’s credit, he averaged a career-low 0.65 homers per nine frames this past season.
Still, entering the 2023 campaign, Pagan had yielded an average of 1.74 homers per nine innings. Among the 1080 relief pitchers to throw at least 250 career innings since way back in the 1800s, that was the highest rate of any pitcher (hat tip to The Atheltic’s Aaron Gleeman for pointing that out back in 2022). Generally, relievers who give up home runs at such a lofty rate just haven’t stuck around long enough to compile a meaningful number of innings at the MLB level.
The Reds are surely confident in their ability to help Pagan continue his newfound ability to mitigate round-trippers, but if his prior home run tendencies return, his new home confines in Cincinnati would likely only shine a spotlight on that problematic history. If he can keep curtailing the long ball, however, he gives the Reds a hard-throwing righty with late-inning experience who could help serve as a bridge to Diaz at the end of the game. Pagan has fanned 28.1% of his career opponents against a sharp 7% walk rate, and he boasts a very strong 14.1% swinging-strike rate in exactly 400 MLB innings.
In terms of payroll, the Reds will have no problem fitting Pagan (or just about any free agent, for that matter) onto the books. Now that Joey Votto is a free agent, the Reds’ only guaranteed contracts had belonged to Hunter Greene and backup catcher Luke Maile, who’ll earn a combined $6MM in 2024. Add in MLBTR’s projected salaries for their six eligible players — one of whom, Jonathan India, is a trade candidate — and a host of pre-arb names to round out the club, and Roster Resource projects a payroll just south of $59MM after accounting for the Pagan deal. And with Maile on a one-year deal, Pagan and Greene are (at least for now) the only players on guaranteed deals for the 2025 campaign.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the Reds had expressed interest in Pagan. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported the Reds and Pagan had agreed to a two-year deal. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the $16MM guarantee and the opt-out possibility. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported the even salary breakdown.
Yankees Claim Oscar Gonzalez From Guardians
The Yankees have claimed outfielder Oscar Gonzalez off waivers from the Guardians, reports Jack Curry of YES Network. There wasn’t any public indication that Gonzalez was removed from the Cleveland roster but they evidently tried to pass him through waivers without success. Cleveland’s 40-man roster is now at 39 while the Yankees are at 37.
Gonzalez, 26 in January, is coming off a dismal season in 2023. In 54 big league games, he struck out in 25.6% of his plate appearances while walking at just a 2.8% rate. He hit just two home runs and produced a batting line of .214/.239/.312 for a wRC+ of 49.
That was a big drop from a solid rookie season in 2022, wherein Gonzalez hit 11 home runs in 382 plate appearances. His 3.9% walk rate was still well below average but his strikeout rate was a more manageable 19.6%. He slashed .296/.327/.461 overall for a wRC+ of 125. He also became known to many baseball fans for using the SpongeBob SquarePants theme song as his walk-up music.
Despite that strong 2022 campaign, the poor plate discipline is an ongoing issue. He has swung at 49.1% of pitches outside the strike zone in his career, the highest rate among MLB hitters with at least 550 plate appearances over the past two seasons. In 2,734 minor league plate appearances, he has walked in just 109 of them, a 4% rate.
Gonzalez is generally considered a poor defender in an outfield corner and he’s not a huge stolen base threat, so the offense really needs to carry the profile. Chasing pitches off the plate and the resulting lack of walks have always been an issue for him. He hit enough in 2022 to overcome those faults but crashed back to earth in 2023. He clearly fell out of the plans in Cleveland, spending much of this year in the minors and now departing organization completely.
The Yankees are known to be looking for outfield help but Gonzalez is likely to just be a depth pickup. He still has a couple of option years remaining, which means the Yanks can keep him in Triple-A until they need him in the majors, either due to an injury or Gonzalez showing himself to be in good form. While struggling with the Guards last year, he spent a lot of time in Triple-A and hit .287/.323/.496 at that level for a wRC+ of 98.
The Yanks have Aaron Judge in one outfield spot but will likely pursue external additions to fill out a couple more. They have been connected in rumors to players such as Juan Soto of the Padres and free agent Cody Bellinger. How they fare in their pursuits of those players and others will ultimately determine how high Gonzalez is on the depth chart. He figures to be battling players like Everson Pereira, Estevan Florial and Oswaldo Cabrera for playing time as depth outfielders.
Mets Claim Cooper Hummel
The Mets have claimed catcher/outfielder Cooper Hummel off waivers from the Mariners, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. Seattle had not previously announced that Hummel was being removed from the 40-man roster. The Mets now have 32 players on their 40-man roster, while the Mariners are down to 39.
The waiver claim comes just over a year after the Mariners acquired Hummel from the D-backs in a straight-up swap for former Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis. That deal didn’t pay dividends for either party, as Lewis missed significant time with injuries before being non-tendered, while Hummel spent the bulk of his lone season with the Mariners organization in Triple-A.
Hummel appeared in just 10 big league games and tallied 26 plate appearances as a Mariner. Between that and a brief MLB debut with Arizona in 2022, he’s a .166/.264/.286 hitter in 227 trips to the plate. That said, Hummel enjoyed a strong year with Triple-A Tacoma in 2023, batting .262/.409/.435 with a mammoth 18% walk rate against a 23.3% strikeout rate. He also offers unusual defensive versatility, evidenced by more than 1800 career innings in left field, 1054 innings behind the plate, 508 innings at first base and 296 innings in right field. Hummel has a minor league option remaining as well, so he can be stashed in Syracuse without needing to first pass through waivers.
The 29-year-old Hummel was an 18th-round draft pick of the Brewers back in 2016, when current Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns was running baseball operations in Milwaukee. Stearns traded Hummel to the D-backs in a 2021 swap that netted infielder Eduardo Escobar, and he’s now reacquired the versatile catcher/outfielder as one of his first transactions with his new club.
It’s another in a growing series of small-scale depth pickups. Stearns has added Hummel, and infielder Zack Short via waivers while signing free agents Luis Severino, Joey Wendle and Austin Adams to one-year Major League contracts (a nonguaranteed split deal, in the case of Adams). He’s also inked righties Cole Sulser and Kyle Crick to minor league deals this week.
Many Mets fans had visions of larger dealings when owner Steve Cohen finally landed Stearns after years of coveting the former Milwaukee baseball operations leader and have instead voiced frustration at depth moves such as this one. However, the offseason is a marathon and the majority of the major names on the free agent and trade markets alike remain available. Beyond that, the Mets had a whopping 12 vacancies on the 40-man roster not long ago and have been burned by a lack of depth on the pitching front in recent years. The headline-grabbing moves for Mets fans figure to surface as the offseason wears on, but Stearns’ Brewers were also known for aggressively operating around the margins of the 40-man roster and that tendency will likely carry over to his still-nascent tenure in Queens.
Astros Sign Kervin Castro To Minor League Deal
The Astros have signed right-hander Kervin Castro to a minor league deal, per a report from Evan Woodbery of MLive. The righty won’t be a factor in Spring Training since he underwent Tommy John surgery in June.
Castro, 25 in February, has 20 games of major league experience, suiting up for the Giants and Cubs. He tossed a combined 25 2/3 innings in 2021 and 2022 with a 4.91 earned run average, 21.2% strikeout rate, 9.7% walk rate and 40.3% ground ball rate.
He signed a minor league deal with the Tigers for 2023 and made 10 appearances in Triple-A before going under the knife and getting released. As mentioned by Woodbery, it was the second TJS of Castro’s career, as he underwent the procedure as a minor leaguer with the Giants back in 2017. Recovery from a second such procedure tends to be a little more challenging than the first, so it might be difficult for Castro to be a factor even in the latter half of 2024. Given those circumstances, it’s possible this is a two-year minor league deal, though that’s just speculation.
Throughout his time in the minors, Castro has racked up plenty of strikeouts though he’s also had control issues. He’s punched out 26.6% of the 815 batters he’s faced in the minors but given free passes to 10.8% of them. Once he completes his rehab, he could be a long-term depth piece for the Astros. He still has one option year and just a couple of months of major league service time.
Randy Arozarena Drawing Trade Interest
Multiple clubs have reached out to the Rays about outfielder Randy Arozarena, per a report from Jeff Passan of ESPN. The Rays aren’t shopping him but it may be something they consider with their perpetual financial concerns.
That clubs would be interested in Arozarena is hardly a surprise. In 487 regular season games in his career thus far, he has hit 71 home runs and stolen 80 bases. His 25.4% strikeout rate is a bit high, but he pairs that with a solid 9.5% walk rate. Those numbers were even better in 2023, coming in at 23.9% and 12.2%. His career batting line of .265/.351/.451 translates to a wRC+ of 128, indicating he’s been 28% better than league average. The reviews on his glovework are mixed, with Defensive Runs Saved liking him better than Outs Above Average. But his work at the plate is excellent and he’s shown a knack for taking it up a notch when the lights are brightest, with strong performances in the MLB playoffs and the World Baseball Classic.
Beyond his abilities, Arozarena is surely appealing due to his contractual situation. He qualified for arbitration last offseason as a Super Two player, earning $4.15MM in 2023, meaning this winter will see him go through the arb process for the second out of four passes. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a salary of $9MM in 2024, with further raises to come in the following two seasons.
Even for a low-spending club like the Rays, $9MM isn’t going to break the bank. But since his salary will go up as his club control goes down, it’s fair to expect that the Rays will be looking to trade him at some point. The club often operates this way, flipping players as they get more expensive and closer to free agency, continually restocking the system with cheaper and more affordable players. Tommy Pham, Blake Snell and Austin Meadows are just some examples from recent years.
The Rays do appear to have a bit of a short-term budget crunch. Roster Resource estimates their 2024 payroll is currently at $126MM, whereas the data at Cot’s Baseball Contracts shows they’ve never previously gone beyond the $80MM range. President of baseball operations Erik Neander has said the club is open to running a higher payroll next year, but they may still have to make some cuts. Right-hander Tyler Glasnow has been a popular name in trade rumors, as he has one year and $25MM left on his deal. Manuel Margot has also been in trade talks, with one year and $12MM left on his guarantee.
Arozarena is set to make less than either of those two, but his extra years of control would give him the most trade value of the group. Those extra years mean that the Rays don’t have to move him now, but if they are going to move him eventually, his trade value is as high as it will be. His salary will only go up in future seasons as he gets closer to the open market, shrinking the amount of years the Rays can sell.
Despite the budgetary concerns, all indications are that the Rays are still trying to compete in 2024. Any trade they make would be about striking a balance between saving money but still keeping the talent on the roster as high as possible. An outfield without Arozarena in it could still have Margot, Josh Lowe and Jose Siri, with players like Luke Raley, Greg Jones, Jonathan Aranda and Harold Ramírez potentially in the mix as well. It’s also possible that the trade return could include another outfielder, cheaper than Arozarena and less established at the big league level.
But trading Arozarena could also allow them to perhaps add some starting pitching, which is a notable concern even if Glasnow doesn’t get moved. Each of Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs underwent a significant elbow surgery this year, meaning each of them is set to miss most or all of the upcoming campaign. A trade of Arozarena could be one way of filling the rotation behind Glasnow, Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale. If Glasnow ends up getting traded, it would only increase the need for rotation help.
It’s unknown which clubs are calling the Rays or how open they would be to any offers on Arozarena. But given the rumors surrounding their players with bigger salaries, it seems as though a trade or two will be made. Ultimately, it will depend on exactly where they need the payroll to be and what kind of offers are coming in for Glasnow, Margot, Arozarena or perhaps players like Isaac Paredes or Brandon Lowe.
The Rays could also perhaps benefit from a free agent market that is considered light in terms of impact bats. Shohei Ohtani is on his own planet and set for a record-breaking contract of some kind, but beyond him, the best options include Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Teoscar Hernández, Jorge Soler and others. It’s expected by many in the baseball world that the Padres will flip Juan Soto due to their own financial issues. Players like Eloy Jiménez, Alex Verdugo and Christopher Morel could be on the trading block as well.
But Arozarena would be one of the most attractive trade candidates if he were truly available, given the combination of his skills, affordability and control. Passan’s report indicates that a small number of clubs have reached out to the Rays but more could come calling over the next few weeks.
Athletics’ Ken Waldichuk Rehabbing From Flexor Strain, UCL Sprain
The Athletics announced Friday that left-hander Ken Waldichuk has quietly been going through a non-surgical rehab process after being diagnosed with a strained left flexor tendon and sprained ulnar collateral ligament in his left elbow. Waldichuk experienced discomfort in his final appearance of the 2023 season, according to the team.
“Waldichuk opted for conservative treatment of this injury, leading to a Tenex procedure with Dr. Steve Yoon on Oct. 17 and a follow-up [platelet-rich plasma] injection to the flexor tendon on Oct. 24,” the team announced in a statement. “Waldichuk is currently in physical therapy; his timeline for returning to throwing remains TBD.”
The Tenex procedure which Waldichuk underwent is rare but not unheard of among pitchers. Veteran right-hander Collin McHugh had the same treatment in the 2019-20 offseason. He wound up not pitching that year, opting out of the pandemic-shortened campaign and citing that he hadn’t recovered from his offseason procedure as well as hoped. Of course, every injury situation is different, and the fact that McHugh didn’t return in 2020 is hardly an indication that Waldichuk will face similar problems. Furthermore, McHugh returned to the mound in 2021 without undergoing further treatment and has been healthy since. Over the past three seasons, he’s compiled 192 innings with a strong 2.77 earned run average.
Waldichuk, 25, came to the A’s from the Yankees prior to the 2022 trade deadline as part of the return package for right-handers Frankie Montas and Lou Trivino. The hope was that he’d provide Oakland with a largely MLB-ready starting pitcher to help replenish a staff that had been thinned out by injuries and trades during the team’s latest rebuild. Waldichuk has struggled throughout his time in Oakland, however.
A 2019 fifth-round pick, Waldichuk made his MLB debut with the A’s in 2022, starting seven games down the stretch and turning in a pedestrian 4.93 ERA — albeit with solid strikeout and walk rates of 22.6% and 6.8%. The 2023 season was another story entirely, as Waldichuk’s struggles eventually led the team to move him to the bullpen. The southpaw returned to the rotation around the All-Star break and pitched decently down as a starter in the second half, logging a 4.04 ERA with a 21.8% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate. His overall 2023 numbers were still unsightly (5.36 ERA, 20.7% strikeout rate, 11.1% walk rate, 1.53 HR/9), but Waldichuk ended the season on a relatively high note and looked to have turned a corner.
The revelation of a notable arm injury throws a wrench into his near-term outlook, however. Waldichuk had been one of the leading candidates to pitch out of the Athletics’ rotation next year, joining Paul Blackburn, JP Sears and prospect Mason Miller in that regard. Other candidates include Luis Medina, Adrian Martinez, Freddy Tarnok, Joey Estes and Osvaldo Bido, though the Oakland rotation mix on the whole is generally comprised of unproven arms. Sears and Blackburm are the only two who’ve had even a full season of average or better results, and Blackburn could be traded this offseason given that he only has two years of club control remaining.
Waldichuk’s injury is a blow to the group and to his broader development as a big league starter, though even if he winds up missing significant time he could still be a part of the Athletics’ long-term plans. The lefty has one-plus year of Major League service time, so he can be controlled another five years. He also still has all three minor league option years intact, although since the injury occurred while pitching in a big league game, he’d very likely be placed on the MLB injured list to begin the year (if an IL placement proves necessary), during which he’d earn service time as well.
Twins Re-Sign Jovani Moran, Ronny Henriquez To Minor League Deals
The Twins have re-signed relievers Jovani Moran and Ronny Henriquez to minor league contracts, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. Both were non-tendered a few weeks ago. The left-handed Moran is expected to miss the 2024 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery following the ’23 campaign. Henriquez, acquired from the Rangers as part of 2022’s Mitch Garver trade, battled elbow trouble and struggled in 37 Triple-A appearances this past season.
Both pitchers were non-tendered despite being several years from arbitration eligibility. However, the non-tender deadline gives teams the unique opportunity to immediately remove a player from the 40-man roster without needing to pass him through waivers, so the Twins used that chance to clear up some space while retaining hope for this type of minor league re-signing.
Moran, 26, has been a heavily used option for manager Rocco Baldelli over the past two seasons, at times looking like a potential setup man — he logged a 2.21 ERA, 32.9% strikeout rate and 11% walk rate in 40 1/3 innings in 2022 — but also battling inconsistencies stemming from his below-average command. He picked up nine holds for the Twins this past season but struggled to a 5.31 ERA with a diminished 26.1% strikeout rate and an alarming 14.7% walk rate.
Moran looked to have righted the ship, to an extent, after a shaky start to the year before a brutal stretch in July that saw him yield nine runs on seven hits and seven walks in what proved to be his final seven innings of the season. He was placed on the injured list with an always-ominous forearm strain, ultimately going under the knife a couple months later. He’ll miss the 2024 season and look to get back into the mix for a roster spot in 2025.
The 23-year-old Henriquez made his big league debut with the Twins in 2022 and impressed with 11 2/3 innings of 2.31 ERA ball. He fanned 18% of his opponents against a 6% walk rate and kept the ball on the ground at a healthy 52.8% clip while averaging 93.2 mph on his heater. He ranked 19th among Twins prospects at FanGraphs and 23rd at Baseball America before this past season’s elbow troubles derailed his year. Henriquez had multiple IL stints due to elbow inflammation and ultimately pitched to an unsightly 5.64 ERA in 57 Triple-A frames. He’ll likely open the season back in Triple-A St. Paul as a depth option.
Padres Continuing Juan Soto Trade Talks
Chatter about a potential Juan Soto trade has gained steam within the past few days. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote on Tuesday the Padres were “almost certain” to deal the star outfielder this offseason. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported this morning that the Friars are engaging other clubs in discussions about the winter’s top trade candidate.
While there’s no indication one team has moved ahead as any sort of favorite, it seems increasingly likely the Padres will pull the trigger on a deal — perhaps as soon as next week’s Winter Meetings. San Diego’s biggest motivation would be to subtract Soto’s arbitration salary, projected at $33MM by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, from their books. Making a trade relatively early in the offseason would afford the front office more clarity as they subsequently look to deepen the roster in other areas.
The Yankees have made no secret of their desire to add a left-handed hitting outfielder. None would be as impactful as Soto, who could slot into left field to form an otherworldly corner outfield tandem with Aaron Judge. On Wednesday, SNY’s Andy Martino wrote that while San Diego and the Yankees continued ongoing dialogue, talks were still in their early stages and no deal was close.
[Related: The Best Fits For A Juan Soto Trade]
If the Padres accelerate discussions on Soto with the Yankees or another team, it seems controllable starting pitching would be a focal point of the return. Brendan Kuty of the Athletic wrote on Wednesday that San Diego was looking for upper-level rotation help in Soto talks. Both Passan and Dennis Lin of the Athletic expressed a similar sentiment.
That’s no surprise. Rotation depth is the biggest question facing president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his front office. Each of Blake Snell, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo and Nick Martinez hit free agency. (Martinez has already come off the board by agreeing to a two-year deal with the Reds.) Beyond Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, the Padres have some combination of Pedro Avila, Jay Groome, Matt Waldron, Glenn Otto and Jairo Iriarte as rotation options. That’s nowhere near sufficient for a team that hopes to compete, meaning the Padres need to bring in at least two (ideally three) starters.
That’d be difficult to accomplish via free agency. Lin wrote yesterday that the team was currently operating with around $10-20MM in payroll space. That probably wouldn’t be enough to add more than one notable starter. As shown on MLBTR’s contract tracker, the cost of back-end starting pitching has landed in the low eight-figure range early in the offseason. Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson signed with St. Louis for $11MM and $13MM, respectively. Martinez secured a $13MM average annual value on his contract with Cincinnati. Rebound candidate Luis Severino received a $13MM guarantee from the Mets.
Adding someone of that nature could require all of the financial resources presently at the front office’s disposal. The Padres need multiple starters and are likely to look for some kind of relief help after seeing Josh Hader hit free agency and flipping Scott Barlow to the Guardians for Enyel De Los Santos. They need a backup catcher behind Luis Campusano and could stand to bring in position player depth off the bench.
Accomplishing all that won’t be possible without clearing payroll. They have smaller alternatives outside of a Soto trade. Center fielder Trent Grisham, with a projected $4.9MM arbitration salary, could move. There’d be plenty of interest in second baseman Ha-Seong Kim, who is due $10MM (including a $2MM buyout on a 2025 mutual option) in his final season before free agency. They’d have a harder time offloading the likes of Jake Cronenworth or Robert Suarez and almost certainly won’t be able to trade Xander Bogaerts, whose $280MM free agent deal seemed well above market value.
Soto projects as the highest-paid player on next year’s roster. Trading him would clear the most short-term spending room of any move the Padres could make. They’d bring back some amount of MLB-ready help in that deal, although they’d clearly recoup far less than they surrendered to acquire Soto at the 2022 trade deadline. With only one season of club control and a hefty projected salary that’ll rule out a lot of organizations, the trade value is less than one might expect for an MVP-caliber player.
The closest analogue is the 2020 Mookie Betts trade. The Red Sox received Alex Verdugo, Jeter Downs and Connor Wong while offloading around $48MM on the underwater David Price contract. Verdugo, the headliner, was a 24-year-old outfielder with five seasons of club control who had hit .294/.342/.475 the year before. (By measure of wRC+, that was 12 percentage points better than league average in the “juiced ball” 2019 season.) Downs ranked 86th on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects at the time. Wong was a mid-tier talent in the Dodgers farm system.
San Diego should top that return if they’re not attaching another contract. Yet it’s possible they don’t return anyone as valuable as the top three talents (MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams and James Wood) whom they sent to the Nationals to acquire Soto.
Each of Kuty and Jon Heyman of the New York Post unsurprisingly indicate the Yankees are unlikely to include Jasson Dominguez or Anthony Volpe in a Soto package. Kuty adds that New York is also reluctant to relinquish pitching prospect Drew Thorpe, while Heyman indicates they prefer to retain Michael King. Both Kuty and Heyman float right-hander Clarke Schmidt as a possible piece of the return. Schmidt, who is projected for a $2.6MM salary and eligible for arbitration for four seasons, would likely be more of a secondary piece after turning in a 4.64 ERA with decent strikeout and walk numbers over 159 innings.
Of course, the Padres will consider offers from teams outside the Bronx. The Cubs have shown interest; Passan floats the Giants and Phillies as possibilities, although a deal with San Francisco would be made challenging by the intra-divisional aspect. They’ll likely be limited to high-payroll clubs with a legitimate chance to compete in 2024. As a one-year rental, Soto isn’t a fit for teams that aren’t firmly in “win-now” mode.
Martino reported yesterday that the Mets were likely to remain on the sidelines as they align their contention window more firmly towards ’25. Passan indicates the Red Sox have a similar reluctance to surrender much future value for a rental. He adds that the Mariners — a strong fit from a roster perspective — may be deterred by Soto’s projected salary.
As for San Diego, trading Soto would open the ability to make a run at some players in the middle tiers of free agency. Passan reports that the Friars could pursue KBO center fielder Jung Hoo Lee and/or NPB reliever Yuki Matsui if they made a move on Soto. Lee, whom MLBTR predicts for a five-year, $50MM pact, could step into the outfield spot vacated by Soto’s departure. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $16MM contract on Matsui — a left-hander who worked to a 1.57 ERA with a 32.4% strikeout rate in 57 1/3 innings during his final season in Japan.
Marlins To Hire Gabe Kapler As Assistant General Manager
The Marlins have reached an agreement to hire former Phillies and Giants manager Gabe Kapler as an assistant general manager under new president of baseball operations Peter Bendix, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald. San Francisco dismissed Kapler following the 2023 season, hiring future Hall of Famer Bob Melvin in his place. Mish adds that Kapler has been looking for a new challenge in baseball operations since being let go by the Giants and was also in the running to become the Red Sox’ head of baseball operations before they ultimately hired another former big leaguer, Craig Breslow.
This won’t be the first foray into baseball operations for Kapler, who served as the Dodgers’ farm director prior to being named manager of the Phillies. He’s spent the past six seasons as a manager, compiling a 456-411 record between San Francisco (2020-23) and Philadelphia (2018-19) and won NL Manager of the Year honors in 2021. He’ll now return to the other side of the game, with a primary focus on player development within the Marlins’ system, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The Marlins don’t have a general manager, with the aforementioned Bendix holding the title of president and heading up baseball ops. But Kapler will join Oz Ocampo, Brian Chattin and Daniel Greenlee as the team’s fourth executive to hold the title of assistant GM.
It’s not the only recent baseball ops hire made by Bendix, who replaced GM Kim Ng after she declined her end of a 2024 mutual option (reportedly because ownership wanted to hire a president of baseball ops to overtake her on the front office hierarchy). Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported earlier this week that Miami hired now-former Rangers assistant director of baseball operations Vinesh Kanthan as their new director of baseball operations.
Changes in the Miami front office figure to continue over the next year, as it’s common for newly hired baseball operations executives to bring in their own team — at times at the expense of holdovers within the department. Bendix and his staff will look to build on the success of the 2023 club, which reached the playoffs for the first time (in 162-game season) since the organization’s 2003 World Series-winning season.