Clayton Kershaw Undergoes Shoulder Surgery; Hoping For Summer Return
Left-hander Clayton Kershaw announced on Instagram that he underwent a surgical procedure this morning to repair the gleno-humeral ligaments and capsule of his left shoulder. He says that he is “hopeful to return to play at some point next summer.”
Kershaw, 35, had a strange campaign in 2023. He had made 16 starts through the end of June with typically strong results, holding an ERA of 2.55 at that time. He was placed on the injured list in early July due to some shoulder soreness. It didn’t seem especially concerning at that time, with the hope seeming to be that the All-Star break would allow him to miss just one or two turns through the rotation.
However, a couple of weeks later, there seemed to be some confusion around the issue. He underwent an MRI in the middle of July and wasn’t activated from the IL, although he wasn’t in any pain. “I feel completely fine. The shoulder feels good,” Kershaw said at the time. “I’ve just been told it has to rest. It’s a weird deal. I’ve never had anything like it, to the point where, like I’m gonna go play catch today and throw it as hard as I can, and they say it needs to rest. It’s just weird, honestly. I don’t know what to make of it. But I’m just gonna have to listen to [doctors].”
He was eventually activated in early August, with more confusion to come. His results continued to be strong, as he posted an ERA of 2.23 in his final eight starts of the year. But he was clearly working with diminished stuff. While he averaged above 91 MPH on his fastball prior to that IL stint, it was down to 90.2 MPH in August and 88.6 MPH in September. His slider also lost a few ticks as the season wore on. Although he was able to continue pitching well in the regular season, the wheels finally came off in the playoffs. Kershaw was lit up in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Diamondbacks, allowing six earned runs while only recording one out.
It seems Kershaw finally got some answers from the medical community and went under the knife today. While solving the mystery around his ailment provides some clarity, it seems there’s plenty of uncertainty ahead. This appears to be the first time the phrase “gleno-humeral” has appeared on the pages of MLBTR, suggesting this isn’t a particularly common procedure to be working back from. Kershaw has also had plenty of other ailments in the recent parts of his career. His 131 2/3 innings pitched in 2023 were the most he’s logged since 2019, spending time on the IL in recent years due to back stiffness, left elbow inflammation, left forearm discomfort, right SI joint inflammation, low back pain and the recent shoulder soreness.
Even without the health issues, Kershaw has gone into the past two offseasons with an uncertain path forward. It was seen by many that he was deciding between returning to the Dodgers, joining his hometown Rangers or retiring. In both cases, he returned to the Dodgers on a one-year deal, with a $17MM salary in 2022 and $20MM this past year. Last month, he again expressed uncertainty about his future going into free agency once more.
The Dodgers opted against issuing Kershaw a qualifying offer in those two years, though he would have deserved one based on his performance. As a sign of respect to the long-tenured player, they afforded him the freedom to take his time making a decision, whereas issuing a QO would have required Kershaw accept or decline within a few days of receiving it. They were presumably planning the same course of action this winter but this surgery would seemingly take the QO off the table even if they were considering it.
More information will likely trickle out over the winter, but the fact that Kershaw is “hopeful” of returning to play in the summer suggests that it’s not a guarantee. Perhaps he will spend some time rehabbing and trying to get healthy before signing a new contract, though that’s entirely speculative.
For the Dodgers, they likely have to proceed under the assumption that they can’t count on Kershaw, though president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman previously stated they would welcome him back. Beyond the fact that he’s not officially on the team anymore, it’s not certain he will be able to rejoin them even if he were willing to do so. In addition to Kershaw, Julio Urías and Lance Lynn are now free agents, with the club declining an option on the latter today. Tony Gonsolin could miss all of 2024 due to Tommy John surgery, while Dustin May‘s flexor tendon surgery should keep him out for at least the first half of 2024.
That leaves the Dodgers’ on-paper rotation with Walker Buehler, who missed all of 2023 recovering from his own TJS, in the top spot. He is followed by guys with very limited experience, such as Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, Michael Grove, Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone. There’s also Ryan Yarbrough, though he might wind up non-tendered, the same way the Rays cut him loose a year ago.
Though the Kershaw news may complicate things, the Dodgers do have plenty of money to work with and figure to be active in all levels of free agency. The top of the market features names like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery, though there are plenty of other intriguing names from Sonny Gray to Lucas Giolito and Jack Flaherty and many more.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
2024 Draft Lottery Odds Finalized
The conclusion of the 2023 season didn’t just bring the start of the offseason. It also finalized the lottery odds for the top picks in next summer’s amateur draft (h/t to Carlos Collazo of Baseball America).
As part of the Players Association’s efforts to reduce the incentive for non-competitive teams to lose games, the latest collective bargaining agreement introduced a lottery to determine the top six overall selections. A team’s odds of landing a higher pick are still weighted in favor of the clubs with the worst records, although the three worst teams all have identical chances of landing the #1 selection. If two teams have the same record, the club with the worse record in the preceding season gets the better odds.
The odds aren’t simply the inverse of the previous year’s standings, however. One of the CBA’s anti-tanking measures is to limit how often a team can pick within the lottery. A teams that does not receive revenue sharing payments and landed a lottery pick in one draft is prohibited from picking higher than 10th the following season. Revenue sharing recipients cannot select above 10th if they had a lottery selection in the preceding two drafts.
That rules the Nationals out from selecting any higher than 10th next year. Washington is not a revenue sharing recipient and had the #2 pick (which it used on Dylan Crews) in 2023. Last summer’s other lottery teams were the Pirates, Tigers, Rangers, Twins and A’s. Texas and Minnesota are ineligible for a lottery selection after making the playoffs.
The lottery only comes into play for the first round of the draft. From the second round onwards, pick order is determined in inverse order of the prior season’s standings (aside from compensatory and competitive balance selections).
The odds for next year’s #1 selection are as follows:
- A’s (50-112): 18.3%
- Royals (56-106): 18.3%
- Rockies (59-103): 18.3%
- White Sox (61-101): 14.7%
- Cardinals (71-91): 8.3%
- Angels (73-89): 6.1%
- Mets (75-87): 4.3%
- Pirates (76-86, 62-100 in ’22): 3%
- Guardians (76-86, 92-70 in ’22): 2%
- Nationals (71-91): Ineligible
- Tigers (78-84, 66-96 in ’22): 1.6%
- Red Sox (78-84, 78-84 in ’22): 1.2%
- Giants (79-83): 1%
- Reds (82-80, 62-100 in ’22): 0.9%
- Padres (82-80, 89-73 in ’22): 0.7%
- Yankees (82-80, 99-63 in ’22): 0.6%
- Cubs (83-79): 0.4%
- Mariners (88-74): 0.2%
After the first six selections are drawn, the remainder of the first round will run in inverse order of the standings among the teams not awarded a lottery pick. The A’s will therefore pick no lower than 7th, the Royals no lower than 8th, and so on. A team with a record outside the bottom six would only be vaulted up if drawn into the top six, although they could move up marginally as teams in front of them fall based on their luxury tax status (as explained below).
The draft order for the remainder of the first round is determined by how far a team advances in the playoffs, its revenue sharing status, and its regular season record. These selections are fixed; a playoff team cannot move up via the lottery.
19. Marlins
20. Brewers
21. Rays
22. Blue Jays
23. Twins
24. Orioles
25. Dodgers
26. Braves
27. Phillies
28. Astros
29. Diamondbacks
30. Rangers
A final note: a team that exceeds the third tier of luxury penalization (set at $273MM in ’23) generally sees its top pick moved back by 10 spots. If that team lands a top six selection, then its second-highest selection is moved back by 10 spots. The Mets, Yankees and Padres are believed to have surpassed the $273MM mark. None of those teams made the playoffs, so they all have a chance — albeit a minimal one for the Padres and Yankees — at a lottery pick.
The drawing is held annually at the Winter Meetings. Collazo reports that this year’s iteration will take place on December 5 at 2:30 pm Central, but the results will be held back for two hours so MLB Network can televise them at 4:30. Baseball America published a Top 100 draft prospects list in July, with Wake Forest first baseman Nick Kurtz leading the class. Obviously, much can change when the amateur season plays out next spring.
A’s To Select Lazaro Armenteros
The Athletics are selecting outfielder Lazaro Armenteros onto the 40-man roster, reports Martín Gallegos of MLB.com (X link). That’ll bump Oakland’s roster count to 37.
Armenteros was a high-profile amateur signee from Cuba seven years ago. The right-handed hitter was viewed at the time as a potential power-hitting regular, leading to a fair bit of hype preceding the 2016-17 international period. The A’s eventually landed Armenteros with a $3MM signing bonus.
That offensive potential has been undercut by huge strikeout tallies throughout his minor league career. Armenteros has punched out in more than 37% of his professional plate appearances. That’d be alarming for any prospect but is particularly concerning for a player whom most scouts project as a left fielder. His stock has dimmed considerably. Armenteros has twice gone unselected in the Rule 5 draft.
The 24-year-old had a generally solid season with Double-A Midland in 2023. He hit .248/.380/.464. Armenteros connected on 14 home runs while drawing walks at a massive 15.3% clip. Swing-and-miss remained an issue, though, as he punched out nearly a third of the time he stepped to the plate.
Oakland’s front office clearly remains intrigued by Armenteros’ physical tools. He has spent parts of seven seasons in the minors, meaning he would have qualified for minor league free agency on Monday if he weren’t on the 40-man roster. The A’s will keep that from happening. Armenteros has a full slate of options and would likely start next season in Triple-A if he holds the 40-man spot throughout the offseason.
Wade Miley Declines Mutual Option With Brewers
Veteran starter Wade Miley is declining his end of a $10MM mutual option with the Brewers, reports Adam McCalvy of MLB.com (X link). It isn’t known if Milwaukee had accepted its end. In either event, he’ll receive a $1MM buyout and become a free agent.
Miley, 37 later this month, turned in solid results over 23 starts during his second stint with the Brew Crew. Signed to a $4.5MM guarantee last offseason, he worked 120 1/3 innings of 3.14 ERA ball. As is often the case with the soft-tossing southpaw, that success came in spite of a modest strikeout rate. While Miley punched out 16.1% of opposing hitters, he kept the ball on the ground at a solid 46.3% clip.
Despite the lack of missed bats, Miley had posted a sub-4.00 ERA in three straight seasons. He was limited by injury to only 37 innings in 2022. The year before that, he worked 163 frames of 3.37 ERA ball for the Reds. When healthy, he turns in solid results. The veteran had a pair of injured list stints this year on account of a lat strain and elbow discomfort but took the ball every fifth day from August on.
Milwaukee has one remaining option decision, a borderline call on outfielder Mark Canha. The club holds an $11.5MM provision with a $2MM buyout. They’ll need to make that call by Monday afternoon.
Cody Bellinger Declines Mutual Option With Cubs
Cody Bellinger has declined his end of a mutual option with the Cubs, the team informed reporters (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune). He receives a $5MM buyout and officially becomes a free agent. Chicago also announced they’ve declined their end of a $5MM mutual option on reliever Brad Boxberger. He collects an $800K buyout.
Both moves were straightforward. Bellinger signed a one-year guarantee last offseason after being non-tendered by the Dodgers. His goal was to turn in a rebound campaign that allowed him to get back to the open market this winter. Bellinger followed through with a resurgent year, blasting 26 homers with a .307/.356/.525 showing. Aside from a month-long absence due to a left knee contusion, it would’ve been hard to draw up a much better season.
That makes taking the option buyout a formality. Bellinger is the clear #2 position player on the free agent market. Going into his age-28 campaign, he could find a deal approaching or exceeding a decade in length. The Cubs will make him a $20.325MM qualifying offer before Monday’s deadline. Bellinger will decline, thereby entitling Chicago to draft compensation if he signs with another team.
The Cubs have top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong as a potential successor in center field. They nevertheless figure to make an effort at retaining the 2019 NL MVP, although teams like the Giants, Yankees and Mariners could join them in the bidding.
Chicago signed Boxberger to a $2.8MM free agent deal last offseason. The veteran righty was limited to 22 contests by a pair of injuries, including a forearm strain that ended his season in September. Over 20 innings, he pitched to a 4.95 ERA with a modest 20.2% strikeout rate and an elevated 13.1% walk percentage. The 35-year-old might be limited to minor league offers this winter.
Mike Clevinger Declines Option With White Sox
Mike Clevinger has declined his half of a $12MM mutual option on his deal with the White Sox, the team announced. He receives a $4MM buyout and qualifies for free agency. Chicago also confirmed their previously-reported decision to buy out righty Liam Hendriks.
Clevinger spent one season on Chicago’s south side. He inked a $12MM guarantee last winter, collecting an $8MM salary and the buyout. He worked to a 3.88 ERA over 12 starts before biceps inflammation sent him to the injured list on June 16. The injury cost him six weeks and, arguably more importantly, a chance to pitch his way into trade candidacy. Clevinger was only able to make one start between his reinstatement from the injured list and the deadline.
That left the Sox to retain him for the remainder of a noncompetitive season. Chicago attempted to offload Clevinger’s salary by placing him on waivers in August. He went unclaimed, presumably because no other team wanted to take on the option buyout. The right-hander had an excellent August before a middling September. He concluded the year with a 3.77 ERA across 131 1/3 innings. Clevinger struck out a slightly below-average 20% of opponents against a solid 7.3% walk rate.
Turning 33 in December, he has a good chance to land a multi-year contract this offseason. While a two-year deal seems likely, it’s not out of the question he finds a three-year pact. That made it a fairly easy call for his camp to pass on the net $8MM deal with Chicago.
The White Sox will need to add multiple starting pitchers this winter. Dylan Cease may be the only pitcher certain to occupy a spot in the Opening Day five. Michael Kopech figures to battle for a job, while Garrett Crochet has angled for a rotation opportunity. Jesse Scholtens and Touki Toussaint occupied back-end roles for the stretch run.
Guardians Select Johnathan Rodriguez
The Guardians announced they’ve selected outfielder Johnathan Rodriguez onto the 40-man roster. He lands a spot for the first time in his career.
Cleveland selected Rodriguez in the third round of the 2017 draft. A right-handed hitter out of Puerto Rico, Rodriguez moved slowly through the minors. He spent his first four-plus seasons at various rookie or A-ball levels. He reached Double-A late in 2022, struggling in his first 28 games there.
Rodriguez unsurprisingly went unselected in last winter’s Rule 5 draft. He put himself on the radar for a 40-man spot with a breakout year in his first full season at the upper levels. Rodriguez spent the bulk of the season at Double-A Akron, hitting .289/.364/.512 in 88 games. He continued that pace after a bump to Triple-A Columbus, where he ran a .280/.376/.560 slash. Overall, the 23-year-old (24 tomorrow) hit .286/.368/.529 with 29 home runs over 565 trips to the plate. While a 28.8% strikeout rate is an alarming figure, he hit for enough power and drew sufficient free passes to earn a 40-man spot.
The impetus for Cleveland is the looming minor league free agent period. Players who have spent parts of seven seasons in the minors will qualify for free agency on Monday unless they’re on a 40-man roster. Cleveland ensured they wouldn’t lose Rodriguez via that process. He has a full slate of option years and could still be sent back to Columbus for the foreseeable future. If he holds the 40-man spot all offseason, he’d have a good chance of making his MLB debut at some point next year.
Report: MLB Grants Yariel Rodriguez Free Agency
Right-handed pitcher Yariel Rodriguez has officially been declared a free agent by Major League Baseball, reports Francys Romero (X link). He is now free to sign with an MLB team.
Rodriguez became one of the more intriguing options on the pitching market when he was granted a release from his contract with NPB’s Chunichi Dragons a month ago. He has been conducting showcases for MLB clubs in the few weeks since but was barred from officially signing with a major league team until today. There’s nothing to suggest he’ll sign imminently, of course, but this removes the procedural hurdle he still needed to clear.
A native of Cuba, Rodriguez turns 27 in March. That’s atypically young for a free agent pitcher. He worked out of the bullpen over parts of three seasons with the Dragons. Rodriguez had a dominating showing in 2022, when he pitched to a 1.15 ERA with a 27.5% strikeout rate over 54 2/3 innings. He worked as a starter for his home country during the World Baseball Classic. Once that event concluded, Rodriguez decided not to report back to the Dragons. He sat out the remainder of the 2023 season — the team placed him on the restricted list — before his camp secured his release.
MLB teams figure to have differing evaluations on Rodriguez’s viability as a starter. He’s an intriguing arm with promising stuff and success at the second-highest level of professional baseball in the world. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported last month that the Rays were among 15 teams with scouts in attendance for one of Rodriguez’s recent workouts in the Dominican Republic. This afternoon, Romero listed (on X) 10 clubs that had shown interest in the hurler: the Astros, Yankees, Rangers, Pirates, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Phillies, White Sox, Mets and Giants.
Justin Turner Declines Player Option
The Red Sox announced a pair of option decisions Friday evening. Infielder Justin Turner has declined his $13.4MM player option in favor of a $6.7MM buyout. Meanwhile, the team declined its $11MM provision on right-hander Corey Kluber.
Turner signed with Boston last offseason. He inked a two-year, $21.7MM guarantee that always looked likely to send him back to the market after one season. Turner locked in an $8.3MM base salary, an extra $1MM in incentives, and the hefty buyout — which only required he’d top $6.7MM on his next contract to come out on top.
There’s no doubt he’ll beat that number after another strong season. The right-handed hitter posted a .276/.345/.455 line while connecting on 23 home runs over 626 plate appearances. The presence of Rafael Devers and Triston Casas at the infield corners consigned Turner primarily to designated hitter work. It raises questions about whether he could be an everyday third base option for another team as he enters his age-39 season.
Despite his age, there’s little doubt that Turner still projects as one of the better hitters in the class. He has topped 20 homers in two of the past three seasons, running a .277/.352/.455 slash since the start of 2021. Turner still has plus contact skills and good plate discipline.
The Kluber signing worked out a lot less favorably. Boston inked the two-time Cy Young winner to a $10MM guarantee. Kluber had turned in 164 innings with a 4.34 ERA for the Rays a season ago. His stint in Boston didn’t go well, as he was tagged for a 7.04 ERA through 55 frames. The right-hander struggled both during an early-season stint from the rotation and following a bullpen transfer in May.
Making matters worse, Kluber landed on the injured list on June 21 with inflammation in his throwing shoulder. He suffered a setback a month later and never returned to the big league club, although he did pitch twice for Triple-A Worcester in September. There was never any chance the Sox were going to retain him for $11MM. Assuming he wants to continue playing, the 38-year-old could conduct some offseason showcases in hopes of finding a major league contract elsewhere.
White Sox Outright Trayce Thompson, Clint Frazier
The White Sox have sent outfielders Trayce Thompson and Clint Frazier through outright waivers, the team announced. They’re each eligible to elect free agency, although the club didn’t indicate if either player has yet done so. Both players would have qualified for arbitration and seemed easy non-tender decisions.
It is very likely that both will head back to the open market. Thompson, a former Sox draftee, rejoined the team midseason in the Lance Lynn/Joe Kelly deal with the Dodgers. He was on the injured list at the time. Chicago reinstated Thompson on August 3. He hit .171/.261/.232 with a massive 43.5% strikeout rate in 92 plate appearances.
Between the two clubs, he finished the year with a .163/.285/.294 showing while punching out 43% of the time. Thompson had been a key contributor for Los Angeles in the second half of 2022. He’d connected on 13 homers with a .268/.364/.537 slash in 74 games, albeit with a 36% strikeout rate.
Frazier signed a minor league deal with Chicago at the end of April. The club selected him onto the MLB roster a month later. The former #5 overall pick nevertheless spent much of the season on optional assignment to Triple-A Charlotte. He hit .231/.363/.442 with a 26.6% strikeout rate at the top minor league level. Frazier got into 33 MLB games this year, running a .197/.303/.242 slash.