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Details On Nick Martinez’s New Contract With Padres

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Nick Martinez opted out of his Padres contract at the end of the offseason but he and the club agreed to a new deal last week. The club made it official today by announcing the deal, and Dennis Lin of The Athletic added some more information about the incentives.

As a recap, it’s technically a three-year, $26MM deal but with a convoluted structure. Martinez will get a $10MM base salary in 2023, which is the straightforward part. After that, the club will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, essentially a two-year, $32MM extension. If they decline, Martinez will get to decide whether or not to trigger two player options valued at $8MM each, essentially a two-year, $16MM extension. Since player options are considered guaranteed, that $16MM option and the $10MM base in 2023 combine to form a $26MM guarantee.

Adding some extra layers of complication are the incentives that Lin outlines, which reflect the uncertain role Martinez will play going forward. He started 2022 in the rotation but eventually got bumped to the bullpen, with his new contract seemingly accounting for a similar trajectory in 2023. Martinez will get paid based on games started, earning an extra $500K at 10, 15, 20 and 25 starts. In terms of relieving, he’ll get $100K at 10 appearances and 20 appearances, $200K at 30, 40, 50 and 60 appearances. For games finished, he will get $200K each at 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35 and 40 finishes.

That’s technically $4.4MM in available incentives, though there’s no way Martinez unlocks all of those. For instance, if he makes 25 starts, he’s unlikely to trigger many of the relief incentives, since a healthy pitcher will make about 32-33 starts over a full season. However, this contract allows Martinez to continue increasing his earnings whether he’s starting or relieving, so long as he’s healthy.

The aforementioned option values can also change, as Lin adds that there are escalators based on Martinez hitting certain innings totals, making the All-Star team or finishing in the top 10 in Cy Young voting. Those details aren’t publicly known at this time.

Going forward, the Friars have Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell taking up the first three spots in the rotation. Martinez is a candidate to take one of the spots at the back end, but subsequent moves by the team could push him to the bullpen. Last year, he posted a 4.30 ERA as a starter and a 2.67 as a reliever. His strikeout, walk and ground ball rates were all better out of the bullpen than the rotation.

Latest On Cubs’ First Base Plans

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The average batting line for first basemen in 2022 was .246/.320/.410, wRC+ of 107. For the Cubs, they used various players at the cold corner for a combined slash line of .232/.304/.348, wRC+ of 86, that latter stat being 24th out of the 30 MLB teams. Given that disparity, the Cubs will undoubtedly be looking for better production in 2023. They might have an in-house solution in Matt Mervis, though they will also be looking for external upgrades this winter. “He’s very much in our plans,” Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said about Mervis, per Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. “But I think we’re also going to be active in exploring alternatives.”

Mervis has really exploded onto the scene in 2022. As mentioned in the piece linked above, he didn’t get drafted in either 2019 or 2020, eventually signing with the Cubs as an undrafted free agent. He played 72 minor league games in 2021, hitting at a below-average level.

2022 has been a completely different story, however. He began the season in High-A and completely mashed, producing a batting line of .350/.389/.650, wRC+ of 189. He got bumped to Double-A and hit .300/.370/.596 for a wRC+ of 148. After moving to Triple-A, his line was .297/.383/.593, 152 wRC+. Incredibly, his walk rate improved from 4.6% to 8.7% to 10.4% as he moved up the ladder, while his strikeout rate fell from 24.1% to 20% to 14.6%. The Cubs decided to keep the good times rolling by sending him to the Arizona Fall League, where he hit .262/.324/.590 in 17 games.

It’s not just the bat that has the Cubs excited either. “He’s more athletic than people think,” Cubs vice president of player development Jared Banner said. “He knows his way around the bag at first base. He’s a nice, big target, and he actually grades out really well defensively. No concerns there.”

Despite that tremendous breakout season, it stands to reason that the Cubs don’t want to simply hand over the starting job to Mervis just based on that. “We’re thrilled with what he’s doing,” Hoyer said. “We know he’s a big part of where we’re going. But at the same time, we have to be cognizant of having real depth. Injuries and other things happen.”

With Mervis seemingly on the cusp of reaching the majors but not a guarantee to immediately succeed, it’s likely that the club will look for a short-term addition to first base. That way, should Mervis continue charging forward, he wouldn’t be blocked from securing the full-time job. The Cubs don’t really have a player locked into the designated hitter mix, so it’s possible that Mervis could co-exist on the roster with someone who will require a long-term deal like, say, Josh Bell. However, teams generally don’t like clogging up the DH spot and prefer to rotate players through there. That’s especially true of a team like the Cubs that’s still trying to give at-bats to young players and evaluate their capabilities against major league pitching. That being said, with no real lock for first or DH, the Cubs are one of the teams best suited to fit a bat-first player into their lineup.

MLBTR’s Top 50 had Josh Bell as the top available first baseman, predicted a contract of four years and $64MM, or $16MM per year. However, Jose Abreu was actually pegged for a higher contract in terms of average annual value: $40MM over two years. Abreu has a longer and more impressive track record but he’s more than five years older than Bell, hence the disparity. The White Sox seem set to let Abreu walk and replace him with Andrew Vaughn at first, and the Cubs have been reported to be interested in facilitating a crosstown move. Brandon Drury would be a sensible fit, if the Cubs are content with moving him to second or third base in the event Mervis takes over at first.

If the Cubs opt for a more short-term solution, players that can likely be had on one-year deals include Brandon Belt, Matt Carpenter, Trey Mancini, Yuli Gurriel or Wil Myers. There’s also the trade market, which could feature bats like Rowdy Tellez or Eric Hosmer. Tellez still has two seasons of arbitration control remaining and is projected for a $5.3MM salary this year by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Hosmer still has three years left on his deal but the Padres agreed to pay down everything but the league minimum when trading him to the Red Sox.

There are many different options available to the club and how they proceed will depend on how much faith they have in Mervis and how much they want to spend. Last year, the Cubs gave out a whole bunch of one-year deals to veterans, with Seiya Suzuki’s five years and Marcus Stroman’s three years (with an opt-out after two) the only multi-year deals.

Pirates Open To Adding Middle Infielder

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The Pirates’ middle infield is fairly open at the moment, with several talented young players who could eventually seize jobs on a more permanent basis but haven’t done so just yet. To that end, general manager Ben Cherington told members of the media, including Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, that the club wouldn’t rule out another external addition.

“I think we want to create competition there certainly, whether it’s guys that are already here. Wouldn’t rule out adding an infielder, either,” Cherington said. “I would emphasize the competition, but there will be a runway to be part of that competition and continue to earn it.”

At first glance, the idea of Pittsburgh adding a depth infielder is a little odd since they just traded Kevin Newman to the Reds. That move opened up the path for younger players to seize playing time, but evidently left them not totally satisfied with their remaining options. There’s possibly a financial component, as Newman was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to make an arbitration salary of $2.8MM, which the Bucs will no longer have to worry about. They could redirect some of those funds to replace Newman, while having added reliever Dauri Moreta, the return in the trade.

It doesn’t seem like bringing in a reinforcement is a must, just something that’s on the table as the club gauges the temperature of the offseason. That’s a fairly logical approach, since they do have plenty of in-house options, though they are written in pencil and not in ink. Oneil Cruz is now the clear top shortstop with Newman out of the picture. He has tantalizing tools, such as elite exit velocities, sprint speed and arm strength. However, he struck out in 34.9% of his plate appearances last year and has long faced questions about whether he and his 6’7″ frame can stick at short in the long run. The reviews in 2022 were mixed, as Defensive Runs Saved gave him a 1 while Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average were much more pessimistic, giving him a -.7.5 and -9, respectively.

The corners seem to be fairly set for next year, with Ke’Bryan Hayes at third and Ji-Man Choi at first. The latter is an impending free agent and a midsummer trade candidate, though perhaps today’s waiver claimee Lewin Diaz can take over at that point. Cruz seems likely to get some more time to continue the shortstop experiment for the near future, with several candidates on hand to take over a full-time second base job or utility role.

Rodolfo Castro had a solid showing this year, hitting 11 home runs and stealing five bases in just 71 games. He finished the year with a batting line of .233/.299/.427, which amounted to a wRC+ of 102, or 2% above average. He played between 19 and 32 games at each of second, third and short and is a switch-hitter, making him well-suited to a utility role. Though it’s also possible he separates himself from the pack and seizes the job at the keystone.

Ji Hwan Bae got a cup of coffee towards the end of the year, hitting well in 10 games while showcasing his speed. He added three steals at the big league level to go with the 30 he tallied in the minors prior to his call-up. He played some second base with the big league club but also center and left field.

Diego Castillo didn’t hit much last year but did play all four infield positions as well as right field. Hoy Park and Tucupita Marcano didn’t hit much either but both played the outfield corners and each infield position except for first base. Prospects Liover Peguero and Nick Gonzales played both second and short at Double-A last year and could be factors in 2023.

The Pirates are obviously rebuilding and very few expect them to emerge as surprise contenders in 2023, which means this jumble will likely be straightened out as the season goes on. If they look into adding a more established player to the mix, they surely won’t be going after top free agents like Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts or Dansby Swanson. Even the next tier of free agents like Elvis Andrus, Jean Segura and Jose Iglesias will likely be looking for more secure jobs than just the placeholder gig in Pittsburgh. That means the Bucs will likely be in contact with options like Hanser Alberto, Yu Chang, Tyler Wade or Danny Mendick. On the trade market, guys like Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Cavan Biggio could be available, though it’s also possible that Cherington keeps working the waiver wire.

Pirates Claim Lewin Diaz

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The Pirates have claimed first baseman Lewin Diaz off waivers from the Marlins, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald (Twitter link). Miami designated Diaz for assignment last week.

Diaz, 26, was a fairly high-profile amateur signing by the Twins back in 2013, inking a $1.4MM bonus and headlining their 2013-14 international free agency class. He ranked among Minnesota’s top prospects for several years due to his power potential and a plus glove at first base, but the Twins flipped him to Miami in a 2019 trade that netted them veteran reliever Sergio Romo and pitching prospect Chris Vallimont.

With the Marlins, Diaz elevated his profile early on before scuffling through parts of three Major League auditions. He’s logged big league time each season since 2020 but produced only a .181/.227/.340 batting line with a 28.9% strikeout rate against just a 5.5% walk rate. Despite his 6’4″ frame and considerable raw power potential, Diaz hasn’t yet hit the ball with much authority in the Majors; he does have 13 home runs in 343 plate appearances, but Diaz’s average exit velocity (88.1 mph), barrel rate (8%) and hard-hit rate (32.6%) are all pedestrian, at best. He’s also been quite prone to pop-ups, with more of his fly-balls (14.4%) registering as infield flies than as home runs (11.7%).

That said, Diaz only just turned 26 years old and has at least one demonstrably excellent skill that’ll play at the Major League level: his glove. He’s only logged 753 Major League innings at first base but still has eye-popping totals in Defensive Runs Saved (16) and Outs Above Average (9). The offensive profile is still quite clearly a work in progress, but Diaz is a .250/.325/.504 hitter in two Triple-A seasons. At his best, he’s tattooed right-handed pitching in the minors, creating some hope that he could at least be a platoon option for the Buccos.

Diaz is out of minor league options, so he’ll either have to break camp with the Pirates next spring or else be designated for assignment once again. If the Pirates at any point are able to succeed in passing him through waivers, Diaz could be retained without occupying a spot on the 40-man roster, though his glove alone might make that difficult.

Diaz is the second option the Bucs have acquired to potentially address their need at first base in the still-young offseason. Pittsburgh also acquired lefty-swinging Ji-Man Choi in a trade with the Rays, though Choi recently underwent elbow surgery. He’s expected to be ready for Spring Training. Diaz is the far superior defender between the two, so if he indeed earns a spot on the Opening Day roster next spring, that could push the 31-year-old Choi into the Pirates’ designated hitter slot. Between Diaz, Choi and late-season acquisition Miguel Andujar, the Pirates have a number of players who could vie for time at first base and designated hitter. Andujar’s right-handed bat would be a fine complement to either Diaz or Choi, and Andujar has ample experience in left field as well.

Astros, Dixon Machado Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Astros have agreed to a minor league deal with infielder Dixon Machado and invited him to Major League Spring Training, per a team announcement.

A longtime Tigers farmhand, the now 30-year-old Machado saw Major League time in parts of four seasons with Detroit, hitting a combined .227/.285/.295 in 505 trips to the plate from 2015-18. Lack of MLB success notwithstanding, Machado has a solid track record in the upper minors and, after a nice showing with the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate in 2019, signed with the Lotte Giants of the Korea Baseball Organization in 2020.

Machado spent two years in the KBO, both with the Giants, and batted a combined .280/.359/.393 in 277 games there. That showing netted him a minor league pact to return to the Cubs, who flipped him to the Giants in a depth swap prior to the trade deadline. Machado went 3-for-15 in five big league games with San Francisco before being cut from the 40-man roster and heading back to Triple-A. Between the Cubs and Giants, Machado appeared in 121 Triple-A games and hit .291/.372/.391.

All told, Machado has logged parts of five seasons in Triple-A, batting .267/.347/.373 in 2222 plate appearances at the top minor league level. He’s a versatile infield defender with experience at all four positions, albeit just 43 innings at first base. The vast majority of Machado’s professional work has come at shortstop, where he’s logged more than 11,000 innings and drew positive reviews from scouting reports dating back to his prospect days.

The addition of Machado is generally a depth signing for the Astros, though with Aledmys Diaz reaching free agency this winter, the door for Machado to make the team and seize a utility role is perhaps a bit more open than it would’ve been in offseasons past. Mauricio Dubon and David Hensley are both on the 40-man roster and both give the ’Stros a potential utility infielder for 2023, though Hensley has minimal Major League experience.

Astros Eyeing Left-Handed Hitting Corner Outfielders

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The Astros have already crossed one item off their to-do list this winter, re-signing setup man Rafael Montero to a three-year pact. They reportedly had strong interest in first baseman Anthony Rizzo before he re-signed with the Yankees, and while they still have a hole at first base, they’re also in the market for a left-handed-hitting corner outfielder, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

Outfield help is a natural target for the Astros, who saw Michael Brantley go down with a season-ending shoulder injury this summer (which ultimately required surgery). He’s now a free agent, leaving the Astros’ projected outfield mix consisting of right fielder Kyle Tucker, center field options Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers, and designated hitter/occasional left fielder Yordan Alvarez.

The 25-year-old Alvarez did log a career-high 467 innings in left field this season, and if the team were to commit to playing him more regularly there, the search could expand to include lefty-swinging corner outfielders and designated hitters. That said, Alvarez has had multiple knee surgeries in the past, despite his youth, so it’s sensible enough if the team prefers to limit his time on the field to help keep his bat in the lineup.

Brantley himself would ostensibly be an option, of course. He said late in the season that he expects to be ready for Spring Training, and if that’s the case, there aren’t many better bets in the “professional hitter” category than the five-time All-Star. Over the past five seasons, Brantley has batted a combined .307/.367/.465 with 57 home runs, 134 doubles and eight triples in 2240 plate appearances. He’s fanned in just 10.6% of those trips to the plate and walked at an eight percent clip as well.

Generally speaking, it’s not a great free-agent market for outfielders this winter. Aaron Judge, of course, is the top free agent, while center fielder Brandon Nimmo ranks a distant second. Beyond that pair, there are plenty of options to peruse, but the majority come with some degree of red flag.

If Houston prefers to pursue a younger option, any of Andrew Benintendi, Cody Bellinger or Joey Gallo could make sense — although the latter two are particularly dependent on Houston’s appetite for taking on a rebound candidate. Both Gallo and Bellinger have seen their once prodigious offensive profiles tank in recent seasons. Bellinger is likely available on a one-year deal as he looks to rebuild some stock. Benintendi, meanwhile, saw his season end on Sept. 2 due to a broken hamate bone. Masataka Yoshida, star outfielder for Japan’s Orix Buffaloes, will reportedly be posted for MLB clubs, but whether his outstanding production in NPB will carry over to MLB is a total unknown at this point.

Alternatives include longtime D-backs outfielder David Peralta, now-former Padres left fielder Jurickson Profar and well-traveled Corey Dickerson. Peralta is 35 and coming off a tepid finish to the 2022 season with the Rays. Profar’s age, bat-to-ball skills and former prospect status could all be appealing, but a .237/.331/.364 slash over the past two seasons isn’t especially eye-catching. Dickerson has had similar production but in a part-time role and is three years older.

The trade market, of course, presents myriad opportunities. The division-rival Mariners were known to be exploring trades involving Jesse Winker earlier this month. Minnesota’s Max Kepler is an oft-speculated trade candidate this winter, and switch-hitters Ian Happ (Cubs) and Anthony Santander (Orioles) were both discussed by their respective clubs in the weeks leading up  to this past summer’s trade deadline.

Whatever path the ’Stros take, some degree of outfield addition feels like a foregone conclusion. The 26-year-old Meyers hit just .227/.269/.313 in his return from last offseason’s shoulder surgery. McCormick, 27, posted solid overall numbers, but the overwhelming majority of his production came against left-handed pitchers; he hit .340/.409/.563 against southpaws but only .207/.301/.344 against fellow righties. Tucker, Meyers, McCormick, Alvarez and utilityman Mauricio Dubon are the only outfielders on the 40-man roster at present. Tucker and Alvarez are the only left-handed hitters who are locked into lineup spots.

Phillies Extend Dave Dombrowski Through 2027

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The Phillies have agreed to a three-year contract extension with president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, reports Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia (Twitter links). He was already signed through 2024, meaning Dombrowski will now run baseball operations in Philadelphia through the 2027 season. The team announced the extension shortly after Salisbury’s report.

Hired as the first person to ever hold the “president of baseball operations” title for the Phillies back in 2020, Dombrowski is now set to be entrenched atop the Phillies’ baseball operations hierarchy for another half decade.

It’s been a short but thus-far successful run for Dombrowski, even if a majority of the Phillies’ 2022 World Series roster — including Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez, Rhys Hoskins, Jean Segura and Seranthony Dominguez — was inherited from the prior regime. Dombrowski was running the ship when the team agreed to re-sign catcher J.T. Realmuto to a five-year contract, and the first year of his four-year investment in Kyle Schwarber has paid considerable dividends. Trades made to acquire Jose Alvarado, David Robertson, Kyle Gibson, Garrett Stubbs, Noah Syndergaard and Edmundo Sosa have all worked out well thus far.

Beyond the players on the field, Dombrowski deserves credit for the leadership placed around them. The decision to fire veteran manager Joe Girardi, who was hired as skipper before Dombrowski joined the organization, and replace him with bench coach Rob Thomson was likely not one that was made lightly. Dombrowski also brought hitting coach Kevin Long into the fold in the 2021-22 offseason and has already extended him through the 2025 season.

As with any baseball operations leader, Dombrowski’s tenure in Philadelphia contains its share of both hits and misses. A two-year deal to re-sign Didi Gregorius proved regrettable, and the free-agent moves made to address the bullpen (Jeurys Familia, Brad Hand, Archie Bradley, Corey Knebel) haven’t panned out as hoped.

Looking specifically at the past year, the Phils entered the 2021-22 offseason with glaring holes both at shortstop and in center field, and neither was addressed heading into the 2022 season. Rather than addressing those areas and looking to improve a team known as one of the worst defensive clubs in the league over the past ten years or so, the Dombrowski-led Phillies instead inked Schwarber and Nick Castellanos to long-term contracts, committing to playing one in the field full-time in the process. Now, with Harper set for elbow surgery and likely in need of increased DH time in 2023, both Castellanos and Schwarber will again be thrust into regular defensive work. Castellanos’ first year with the Phils was a disappointment, and he’ll be looking for a rebound effort in 2023.

At shortstop, Dombrowski bucked the “farm system destroyer” narrative and held onto top prospect Bryson Stott, giving him a chance at the everyday job even in spite of a stacked free-agent class of shortstops last winter. Stott didn’t hit much and looked better at second base than at shortstop, though, and the Phillies now seem poised to be players in what is again a deep collection of shortstops.

Still, the decision to hang onto Stott and top pitching prospects Andrew Painter, Mick Abel and Griff McGarry runs somewhat counter to Dombrowski’s prior penchant for aggressive trades that thin out the top end of a farm system in the name of win-now moves. The only truly high-end prospect he’s traded away is catcher Logan O’Hoppe, who was facing a Realmuto-sized roadblock to playing time in Philadelphia. That swap brough Brandon Marsh to the Phils, and the early returns during the regular season were strong: Marsh slashed .288/.319/.455 with the Phillies, and the hope is that he can hold down the fort in center field on a long-term basis.

Setting aside the dissection of Dombrowski’s transactions in a still relatively limited tenure with the organization, it’s clear that owner John Middleton is comfortable working with Dombrowski and believes he and GM Sam Fuld are the right pairing to continue guiding the Phillies’ World Series aspirations. Dombrowski has won World Series titles with two different organizations and has now overseen World Series berths with a whopping four organizations. That type of success across multiple franchises is generally unparalleled, and Dombrowski now potentially has five more opportunities to secure his third World Series ring with his third different organization.

The Opener: Judge, Bellinger, Offseason Outlooks

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As the offseason continues to roll along, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:

1. Judge To Meet With Giants

Later today, top free agent Aaron Judge will meet with Giants brass in San Francisco. This marks the first meeting Judge has been reported to be taking with a team besides the Yankees, who made Judge a new offer last week. Rumors have long swirled that the Giants would be aggressive with their financial might this offseason, and team officials have done little to dissuade that thinking with their public comments. Their pursuit of Judge, the offseason’s premier free agent who grew up a Giants fan in the area, is no surprise. In addition to the Yankees, the Giants are likely to face competition for Judge from their divisional rival Dodgers, whose interest in Judge has been reported occasionally throughout the offseason thus far.

2. Cody Bellinger’s Market Developing

Despite being non-tendered by the Dodgers on Friday, former NL MVP Cody Bellinger has found a fairly strong market for himself due to this offseason’s dearth of available center fielders. He’s fielded calls from teams since the hour after his non-tender, and while those conversations have supposedly included multi-year interest, his preference is toward a one-year pact. The Blue Jays, Giants, and Cubs are among the teams who have been connected to Bellinger, and it seems likely plenty more will arise over the course of his free agency. Beyond Bellinger, Kevin Kiermaier (who’s recovering from hip surgery) and top free-agent center fielder Brandon Nimmo, there aren’t many viable regulars on this year’s free-agent market.

3. Offseason Outlooks Set To Wrap Up

The Offseason Outlook series is one of MLBTR’s biggest offseason projects, and after covering the Giants and the Phillies yesterday, the series will wrap with coverage of the Astros later today. While that will mark the end of Offseason Outlook posts for the year, be sure to keep an eye out for the team-focused Offseason Outlook chats, which will also be completed shortly. In addition to the Astros, A’s and Rangers fans can look forward to an Offseason Chat over the next couple days. MLBTR’s Steve Adams will host a Rangers-specific chat today at 1pm CT. You can submit an early question here  and also use that link to join the chat once it’s underway (and to read the transcript once it’s completed). Fans of other teams can check out previous Offseason Outlook posts and team-specific chats here.

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