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Astros Sign Hitting Coach Alex Cintron To Multi-Year Extension

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The Astros have taken some steps towards preserving continuity on the coaching staff. Co-hitting coaches Alex Cintrón and Troy Snitker are returning in the same roles, they informed reporters (including Mark Berman of Fox 26 and Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports that Cintrón signed an extension that keeps him under contract through 2025.

The multi-year deal for Cintrón could be tied to some interest from a competitor. Rome writes the 43-year-old interviewed with the Blue Jays in their search for a bench coach to work alongside skipper John Schneider. His new deal with Houston forecloses the possibility of him heading north of the border. The Cintrón/Snitker pairing has worked together since the start of the 2019 season, guiding an extremely talented lineup to excellent results. Houston trails only the Dodgers in runs scored over the last four years. They were eighth in runs this past season, and they placed seventh in on-base percentage (.319) and fifth in slugging (.424).

Rome also reports the Astros have agreed to a new deal with pitching coach Josh Miller. He’ll be back for a second season. Miller was promoted to co-pitching coach alongside Bill Murphy after the departure of Brent Strom last offseason. The duo inherited an excellent pitching infrastructure and plenty of talent, but they also seem to have taken on their greater responsibilities very well. Only the Dodgers allowed fewer runs this year, while the Mets were the sole team to beat Astros pitchers’ 26% strikeout rate. The contract status of Murphy hasn’t yet been reported.

Other than Murphy, most of the key members of the coaching staff are slated to return on the heels of the World Series win. Dusty Baker will get a fourth season at the helm, and he’ll be joined by his co-hitting coaches and at least one of this past season’s pitching coaches. Bench coach Joe Espada and first base Omar López were previously reported to be back themselves.

Yankees Have Shown Preliminary Interest In DeGrom, Senga

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The vast majority of Yankee fans are fixated on the team’s quest to re-sign reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge, but the Yankees are also looking into potential pitching upgrades. Andy Martino of SNY reports the Yankees recently requested Jacob deGrom’s medical records, and MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that they’ve been in touch with NPB ace Koudai Senga’s representatives.

Neither development is indicative of an all-out pursuit, of course. The Yankees have the financial wherewithal to sign any free agent in any given offseason, so it only stands to reason they’d make sure to be keenly aware of the potential market/asking price and the current medical status of any market’s top targets. At present, there’s no indication the Yankees have actually had a formal meeting about either pitcher.

The Yankees currently project to have a five-man rotation of Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino, Frankie Montas and Domingo German, though righty Clarke Schmidt and prospects Jhony Brito and Randy Vasquez could also pitch their way into the mix before long. German, 30, was solid through 15 games (14 starts) last season but was limited to 92 2/3 innings — minors and big leagues combined — while battling a shoulder impingement. Montas, acquired this summer with the expectation he’d be a key rotation piece down the stretch in ’22 and all season in ’23, struggled to a 6.35 ERA in eight starts with the Yankees. He also spent a bit more than two weeks on the injured list due to shoulder inflammation.

As things stand, the Yankees project to carry a $206MM bottom-line payroll, per Roster Resource, although their luxury-tax bill is already north of $222MM. Judge alone could push the Yankees into the second tier of luxury penalization, and both Senga and (especially) deGrom would come with notable average annual values, further ballooning the team’s luxury bill. Signing both Judge and deGrom seems like an extreme long shot, but speaking purely theoretically, that duo alone would likely push the Yankees into the newly created fourth tier of the luxury bracket.

As with the early stages of any offseason, a lot of this groundwork amounts to little more than due diligence. Requesting deGrom’s medicals does not serve as a clear portent for concurrent, all-out pursuits of the two-time Cy Young winner and the current AL MVP. The Yankees have already made an updated offer to Judge, GM Brian Cashman indicated last week, and both Cashman and owner Hal Steinbrenner have voiced on multiple occasions that Judge is the team’s top priority. However, no front office would simply presume a free agent is a lock to remain in place, and no team wants to be blindsided and unprepared in the event their homegrown star departs. The Yankees are no different and are surely gauging the entire market accordingly.

As far as the luxury tax is concerned, it bears mentioning, too, that if the Yankees do add a notable starter — whether as one of several additions or as their primary offseason pickup — doing so could enable Cashman and his staff to deal from the current group of in-house candidates. Montas and German, projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz at respective salaries of $7.7MM and $2.6MM, could be shipped elsewhere and slightly alter the financial outlook, speculatively speaking.

Both deGrom and Senga are among the most coveted pitchers on the market, though both come with red flags. Though he’s a two-time Cy Young winner and arguably the best pitcher on the planet when healthy, deGrom has missed considerable time in each of the past two seasons. Senga, of course, is still entirely untested against MLB opponents — dominant as his numbers in Japan may be. To this point, the Rangers and Mets have been the teams most prominently linked to deGrom. Senga, meanwhile, is hoping to pitch for a win-now club in a big market, agent Joel Wolfe recently said in an interview with NBC Sports’ Gordon Wittenmyer. In addition to the Yankees, he’s been tied to the Giants, Mets, Padres, Red Sox, Cubs and Rangers. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported over the weekend that Senga recently visited Texas brass.

Trying To Find Hidden Gems With BB/K – 2022-23 Edition

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Last offseason, I tried to find under-the-radar minor league prospects by looking at how much a hitter walked and struck out. Sometimes, these stats can indicate a hitter has a keen eye at the plate which will help them succeed as they move up the minor league ladder. I used Mookie Betts and Jose Ramirez as examples of young players who had strong BB/K rates in the minors who then went on to have greater MLB success than many prospect evaluators had projected.

Looking at 2021 stats, I highlighted players who had 300 or more plate appearances at Double-A and/or Triple-A and a BB/K rate of 1.00 or higher. Did this help us find hidden gems? Let’s look at the results before moving on to this year’s crop. The names on the list were Alejo Lopez, Isaac Paredes, Steven Kwan, Tyler White, Cooper Hummel and Jonah Bride.

Two of these players had breakout years in 2022. Kwan made his MLB debut and had a tremendous season on both sides of the ball. He provided excellent outfield defense and continued his great work at the plate, walking more than he struck out at the major league level. He had a season strong enough he could have won Rookie of the Year honors in another year, but he had to settle for third this year due to an incredible batch of rookie campaigns that also included Julio Rodriguez and Adley Rutschman. The other breakout was Paredes, who was traded to the Rays in April as part of the Austin Meadows deal. He hit 20 home runs in 111 games while posting walk and strikeout rates that were both better than league average. Paredes is less of a hidden gem since he snuck onto the back end of Baseball America’s top 100 in 2019 and 2020, though he had fallen off in the two subsequent seasons. Kwan never made it onto the top 100 and only made the top 30 among Cleveland farmhands for the first time going into 2022, coming in at #27. FanGraphs, it’s worth noting, was far more bullish, slotting Kwan third in the Guardians system and 57th overall heading into the year.

Most of the rest of the group is TBD, as they only got limited MLB appearances. Lopez was frequently optioned and got into 61 games in the majors, still proving very tough to strike out but not doing much damage when he did connect. Hummel struggled in his first 66 games but still hit very well in the minors, walking in 15.4% of his plate appearances and slashing .310/.423/.527. The Mariners must be intrigued by him, since they just traded Kyle Lewis to get him from the Diamondbacks. Bride made his MLB debut and scuffled in 58 games but hit .342/.453/.568 in the minors while still walking more than he struck out. As for White, he was 31 last year and only really plays first base, making it hard for him to carve out a role on a major league team. He started the year in the Brewers’ system but was acquired by the Braves in a midseason trade. Between the Triple-A teams of the two organizations, he had another decent season at the plate, walking in 16% of his appearances while striking out just 20.1% of the time.

Out of six guys highlighted last year, two became MLB regulars, two didn’t immediately hit the ground running but still hit well in the minors and another two were sort of mediocre. It’s not a perfect system but not a bad shorthand, in my opinion. A common theme you will see with the players below is their strike zone discipline often comes with a lack of power. In order to turn this profile into a breakout, that usually means the hitter needs to get stronger or change their approach slightly. In the case of Paredes, he seems to have started selling out more in 2022, as his strikeout rate climbed but so did his isolated power. Kwan didn’t add power, only going deep six times, but his on-base skills were combined with speed and defense to help him be an all-around producer.

If we look at the 2022 numbers, can we find next year’s Kwan or Paredes? Even if that’s setting our sights too high, some of these guys are Rule 5 eligible and could be candidates to be nabbed in next month’s draft. Let’s take a look at the players with a BB/K rate at 1.00 or above with 300 or more plate appearances at Double-A and/or Triple-A in 2022.

Michael Stefanic, infielder, Angels, BB/K rate at Triple-A: 2.18

Stefanic got 346 plate appearances in Triple-A this year, walking in 13.9% of them while striking out just 6.4% of the time. He didn’t provide much power, however, hitting only four home runs in that time despite playing in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. His final batting line there was .314/.422/.425 for a wRC+ of 122. He also got into 25 major league games without finding much success. It’s a somewhat similar profile to another Angels infielder in David Fletcher. Stefanic was an undrafted free agent, has never been on BA’s top 100 and only cracked the Angels’ top 30 for the first time a year ago. He’ll turn 27 in February.

Nick Dunn, infielder, Cardinals, BB/K rate at Double-A: 1.50

The Cardinals seem to have a knack for turning their lesser draft picks into solid major leaguers, so it shouldn’t be a surprise to see a couple of them on this list. Dunn was selected in the fifth round in 2018 and has never cracked a BA list of top prospects in the system, though he was mentioned at FanGraphs, where Eric Longenhagen called him “a free-swinging Brendan Donovan — same hair and everything.” In 2022, Dunn got 472 plate appearances and walked 13.3% of the time while striking out at just a 8.9% clip. Similar to Stefanic, it hasn’t resulted in much power, with Dunn only hitting seven long balls on the year, which was a career high. He’ll be 26 in January. He’s eligible to be selected in next month’s Rule 5 draft.

John Nogowski, first base/outfielder, free agent, BB/K rate at Double-A and Triple-A: 1.08

Nogowski got some brief MLB looks in 2020 and 2021 and couldn’t do much with them. He split 2022 between Atlanta’s and Washington’s system, getting 483 plate appearances while walking more than he struck out. Similar to the players above him, it didn’t result in much power, as he went deep eight times and produced a batting line of .248/.366/.362. A 34th-round draft pick from 2014, he’s never been on a team prospect list at BA or FanGraphs. He’ll turn 30 in January.

Willians Astudillo, utility player, free agent, BB/K rate at Triple-A: 1.06

It’s likely that you’re already familiar with “La Tortuga” since he’s appeared in the majors for the past five years and has become a fan favorite. He hardly ever strikes out but also hardly ever walks or goes deep, which is why he’s had trouble sticking in the majors despite incredible bat-to-ball skills. He spent most of this year in Triple-A for the Marlins, hitting very well down there. However, he’s now 31 and hasn’t produced much over 588 career plate appearances in the majors.

Vinnie Pasquantino, first base, Royals, BB/K rate at Triple-A: 1.03

This one is the hardest to call a hidden gem since Pasquantino is already on display. That being said, the 11th round draft pick from 2019 wasn’t a highly-touted prospect until a strong 2021 campaign got him onto the list of top farmhands in the Royals’ system from both BA and FanGraphs going into 2022. He got called up in late June and acclimated to big league pitching immediately. He had already walked more than he struck out at Triple-A in the first half of the year and then did the same in the show. He also went deep 18 times in Triple-A and 10 times in the majors. He only has 298 MLB plate appearances but the signs are pointing to him being the real deal. He just turned 25 last month.

Evan Mendoza, infielder, Cardinals, BB/K rate at Triple-A: 1.00

Another Cardinal, Mendoza was an 11th round draft pick in 2017. In 421 plate appearances this year, his strikeouts and walks came out even at 56. Unfortunately, like some others on this list, his contact wasn’t terribly productive, resulting in a slash line of .247/.348/.325. He did add a speed element to his game recently, though, swiping 15 bags last year and 17 this year. With the new rules coming into play that encourage more baserunning, perhaps his on-base skills will help him prove valuable. He’s never cracked the top 30 prospects in the system at either BA or FanGraphs, though FG did put him at #34 back in 2018. He’s eligible to be selected in the upcoming Rule 5 draft.

Tanner Morris, infielder, Blue Jays, BB/K rate at Double-A and Triple-A: 1.00

Morris began his year in Double-A, getting 186 plate appearances with matching 16.1% walk and strikeout rates. He hit five homers in that sample while slashing an excellent .312/.430/.468. He got bumped to Triple-A but couldn’t keep things rolling, perhaps due to a .233 BABIP, as he hit .173/.352/.173 in 126 plate appearances there. However, he again posted matching walk and strikeout rates of 19.8%, meaning he finished the year with rates of 17.6% over 312 plate appearances between the two levels. He then went to the Arizona Fall League and got into 15 games, walking 15 times against nine Ks for a batting line of .279/.466/.372. A fifth round pick from 2019, he’s been on the back end of Toronto prospect lists over the past few years. He recently turned 25 and is Rule 5 eligible.

Bryce Windham, catcher, Cubs, BB/K rate at Double-A: 1.00

A 32nd round pick of the 2019 draft, Windham got 304 plate appearances at Double-A this year, finishing with walk and strikeout totals of 44, a 14.5% rate for each. It was quite tepid production overall, leading to a batting line of just .202/.322/.289, though his .227 BABIP was well below his previous seasons. He’s never been listed as a top prospect in the system by either BA or FanGraphs. He recently turned 26 and is Rule 5 eligible.

Nick Senzel Undergoes Toe Surgery, Expected To Be Ready For Spring Training

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Reds outfielder Nick Senzel underwent surgery to repair a fractured toe on his left foot last week, reports Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. He’s expected to be ready for Spring Training, but it looks as if his offseason routine could be impacted to some extent.

Senzel fractured the toe after he crashed into the outfield wall in pursuit of a fly ball in September. The injury ended his season a couple weeks early, and Nightengale writes that recent imaging showed the toe wasn’t healing itself properly, necessitating surgery. Despite the early conclusion, Senzel saw the most action of his MLB career in 2022. He appeared in 110 games and tallied 420 plate appearances, narrowly topping marks he established as a rookie in 2019.

It was another tough year for the former second overall pick, who managed only a .231/.296/.306 line with five home runs. Senzel also rated 11 runs below average defensively in center field, and both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference graded his overall performance below replacement level. The University of Tennessee product has now tallied just north of 1000 big league plate appearances over the last four years, hitting .240/.303/.360.

That kind of production is surely not what the Reds had envisioned when selecting Senzel so highly in the draft. That said, it’s also possible injuries have conspired to prevent him from getting into a groove to this point in his career. He battled vertigo as a prospect, then saw his 2019 season cut short by surgery to repair a labrum tear in his right shoulder. He lost a chunk of the 2020 season on the COVID-19 list, then missed most of the ’21 campaign rehabbing from a left knee issue that required arthroscopic surgery.

The Reds tendered Senzel an arbitration contract last week, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting him for a $2.2MM salary next season. The 27-year-old is eligible for arbitration through 2025, but next year could be Senzel’s last crack at cementing himself as a long-term fixture on the Cincinnati roster.

He’s presently the favorite for the starting center field job, but Nightengale suggests the Reds could look for outside help at the position. That’d presumably be via the lower tier of free agency or the trade market and would push Senzel more into a multi-positional role off the bench. General manager Nick Krall told reporters last week Senzel was an option to factor in at third base, the position at which he was drafted. He’s only played 32 MLB innings at the hot corner while logging just over 2000 frames in the outfield.

Giants Interested In Brandon Nimmo, Cody Bellinger

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The Giants have been frequently speculated as a fit for Aaron Judge, but their offseason won’t entirely revolve around him. According to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, the club will be looking for two outfielders this winter and have checked in on both Brandon Nimmo and Cody Bellinger.

What sets Nimmo and Bellinger apart from most of the other free agent outfielders is the ability to play a competent center field. As noted by Slusser, the Giants’ outfield defense graded out poorly in 2022. The club used a hodgepodge of different options throughout the year, including Steven Duggar, Mauricio Dubon, Austin Slater, Mike Yastrzemski, Luis González, Jason Krizan, Stuart Fairchild, Joc Pederson, Bryce Johnson and Lewis Brinson. Defensive Runs Saved pegged them at -44, easily the worst in baseball with the Pirates next on the list at -33. Outs Above Average gave them a -25, tied with the Phillies for last. Only Ultimate Zone Rating was gentler, as their -21.8 in that category was 29th, edging out the White Sox. That’s a pretty unanimous assessment that says this is an area the club can upgrade, and having a reliable guy to pencil in there every day would certainly be appealing.

There are a handful of players who can provide help with the defensive side of things, such as Brinson, Jackie Bradley Jr., Brett Phillips, Bradley Zimmer, but they would likely be liabilities at the plate. Nimmo and Bellinger, however, have the potential to provide on both sides of the ball, though Bellinger’s offensive performance has been in quite an extended rut. Ever since injuring his shoulder during an ill-advised celebration in the 2020 postseason, he’s seemed lost at the plate. He mashed his way to MVP honors in 2019 by hitting 47 home runs and batting .305/.406/.629. His production slipped a bit in 2020 before he hit just .193/.256/.355 over 2021 and 2022 combined.

Whether he can get his offense back on track will be a key question, but he should have a decent floor thanks to his speed and defense. He was considered league average by DRS and UZR in 2022 while OAA was more enthused, giving him a mark of six for the year. He also swiped 14 bags this season, allowing him to be worth 1.7 fWAR despite the tepid work with the bat. Bellinger’s agent, Scott Boras, recently said that the outfielder will be looking for a one-year deal and it’s perhaps worth noting that this situation is at least mildly reminiscent of Carlos Rodón one year ago. Both players are represented by Boras and were entering free agency as talented players but with question marks about their consistency. The Giants and Rodón agreed to a two-year deal but with the southpaw afforded an opt-out to return to the open market after one season. Bellinger is apparently just looking for a straight one-year pact but perhaps the Giants will be the ones to step up and make that happen.

Nimmo’s case is less mysterious, at least in terms of his offense. He’s been fairly consistent at the plate, having an OBP of at least .367 in six straight seasons while keeping his wRC+ at 134 or higher over the past three. He had some durability concerns earlier in his career but has only had one significant injury absence over the past three years, which was due to a finger contusion in 2021. The defensive reviews are mixed, with both DRS and UZR giving him a negative number in 2020 and 2022 but a positive mark in 2021. OAA went negative in 2020 but has been positive the past two seasons. Wobbles from year to year with defensive metrics aren’t unheard of and it seems fair to expect Nimmo to provide at least average-ish glovework up the middle.

The problem with that stronger profile in recent seasons is that he will certainly cost much more than Bellinger. MLBTR projected him for $110MM over five years, or $22MM per season. Their payroll is currently around $133MM in the estimation of Roster Resource. That’s well shy of last year’s $155MM Opening Day figure and their franchise record of $200MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but that doesn’t mean they will do everything they set their sights on. Given that the Giants have also expressed an interest in Judge, the top free agent shortstops and retaining Rodón, adding multiple nine-figure contracts is a bit tough to see. Then again, if the Giants end up missing on a few of their other targets, they should have plenty of payroll space to work with.

Whether they prioritize Nimmo or Bellinger, they will have competition. The Blue Jays are known to be interested in both Nimmo and Bellinger, while the Mets would like to bring Nimmo back to Queens.

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

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The Giants have been conservative with their spending during the Farhan Zaidi era, which has led to inconsistent results. Their 107-win campaign in 2021 was excellent but they followed that up with an exact .500 season in 2022. All signs point to this being the offseason that the wallet opens, with many possible routes to take, one of which leads to Bay Area native Aaron Judge.

Guaranteed Contracts

Total 2023 commitments: $89.15MM
Total future commitments: $111.15MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

It’s a time of transition in San Francisco, with the veterans of the last era making way for the fresh faces of the new one. On the heels of an unexpected renaissance in 2021, Buster Posey decided to retire on a high note. In 2022, they couldn’t keep the magic going, with injuries putting a damper on Brandon Crawford, Tommy La Stella, Evan Longoria and Brandon Belt. Those latter two names are now free agents and might not be back, while the former two are each entering the final years of their respective contracts.

How they proceed with this era will be fascinating to watch, with many possible paths ahead of them. Since Farhan Zaidi was named president of baseball operations four years ago, the club has generally avoided long contracts, attempting to build around their veteran core with modest signings, waiver claims and prospects. (It’s worth noting they did reportedly offer Bryce Harper $310MM over 12 years, per Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area, but a deal didn’t come together.) As mentioned, the results have been mixed. They hovered around .500 in three of the four seasons since his hiring, with the 107 wins in 2021 as the huge exception.

The upside of that conservatism is the that club’s payroll is wide open. In the short term, Roster Resource estimates their 2023 payroll to currently be around $132MM. That’s well shy of 2022’s Opening Day figure of $155MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, as well as their franchise high of $201MM from 2018. The long-term picture is even better, with modest amounts still owed to Anthony DeSclafani and Wilmer Flores in 2024 and nothing besides the Flores option for 2025 and beyond. That leaves essentially all avenues open to them this winter. “From a financial standpoint, there’s nobody that would be out of our capability,” Zaidi recently told reporters, including Pavlovic.

Since no one is off the table, many people have set their sights on the very top of the free agent market, which is Aaron Judge. Towering above everyone else in more ways than one, Judge has been speculated as a fit for the Giants due to his Bay Area roots. He was born in Sacramento and raised in Linden, which is about a two-hour drive from Oracle Park. The Yankees will likely be highly motivated to prevent the Giants from poaching him, given Judge’s tremendous abilities and star power. However, there’s really nothing to make the fit in San Francisco impossible at the moment. Though Judge will command a mammoth contract, with MLBTR predicting $332MM over eight years, the Giants are one of the teams that can afford it.

In terms of the on-field fit, the Giants could make it work with Judge or just about any free agent. In recent years, they have targeted players with defensive versatility, which should help them juggle the puzzle pieces around, regardless of who they eventually acquire. The current outfield mix consists of players like LaMonte Wade Jr. Mike Yastrzemski, Luis González and Austin Slater. There’s also Joc Pederson, who received and accepted the qualifying offer in the past week. However, he had poor defensive numbers in 2022 and could be slated for significant time as the designated hitter. Though those outfielders all have their merits, none of them would stand in the way of Judge. Wade has spent some time at first base in recent years and could theoretically do that more going forward to de-clutter the outfield, if necessary.

The infield is currently a hodgepodge of multi-positional players, outside of Crawford. There’s Flores, La Stella,  Thairo Estrada, J.D. Davis and David Villar, along with some depth options. Those players all have at least some ability at more than one position, giving the club plenty of flexibility in how they make their moves going forward. They have been rumored to be considering the top free agent shortstops, in addition to their interest in Judge. The fit might be awkward for one season, with Crawford being a fan favorite and face of the franchise. He has 10-and-5 rights and isn’t likely to end up traded. It’s possible the club could sign a shortstop to play second or third for one season, then have them slide over after Crawford’s contract expires. This would be somewhat akin to the Dodgers acquiring Trea Turner while they still had Corey Seager at short. Turner played second after the trade deadline in 2021 and then moved over to short for 2022 after Seager signed with the Rangers. Turner is now one of the “Big Four” free agent shortstops alongside Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. They will all likely be able to secure nine-figure contracts but, as mentioned, the Giants are well positioned to make such a move.

Behind the plate is another area where the club could consider making an investment. Joey Bart has long been considered one of the club’s most exciting prospects, but he’s yet to permanently cement himself at the big league level. He was blocked by Posey for a while but finally got some significant playing time in 2022. In 97 games, he hit .215/.296/.364 for a wRC+ of 90. That’s roughly league average offensive production for a catcher, though it came with a concerning 38.5% strikeout rate. On the other side of the ball, Bart got negative grades from both Defensive Runs Saved and the FanGraphs framing metric. He’s about to turn 26 and could still take steps forward but the club will likely want to have other options on hand. The only other backstop currently on the 40-man roster is Austin Wynns, who had a fine showing in a backup role in 2022. However, the Giants could find other options, with free agents like Omar Narváez, Tucker Barnhart, Austin Hedges and Roberto Perez available in free agency. A bigger splash on someone like Willson Contreras is something they could afford if they aren’t really committed to giving Bart a chance, though they some more focused on other areas of the roster.

While Belt and Longoria have spent significant time with the Giants and are notable departures for nostalgia reasons, the club’s most significant free agent loss is Carlos Rodón. The lefty has long been known as a very talented pitcher, but one who struggled to stay healthy. He had a strong 2021 that erased many of those injury concerns, though not all. He pitched 132 2/3 innings for the White Sox with a 2.37 ERA but seemed to run out of gas down the stretch. The Sox were concerned enough not to give him a qualifying offer. The Giants pounced and gave Rodón a two-year, $44MM deal, though one that allowed him to opt out after the first year and return to free agency as long as he pitched 110 innings. He shot way past that, finishing the season at 178 frames and a 2.88 ERA, further distancing himself from those previous injury concerns. He made the easy decision to opt out and will now be looking for a huge payday, even after rejecting a qualifying offer from the Giants.

Zaidi has said that the club will try to retain Rodón, but they will certainly have competition. The Rangers are already known to be interested, for instance. Even without Rodón, the rotation isn’t in terrible shape. On paper right now, it would be Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood and Jakob Junis. Webb and Cobb have each been good in each of the past two seasons. Wood’s 2021 ERA of 3.83 jumped to 5.10 in 2022, but with fairly similar rate stats and advanced metrics. DeSclafani is less certain at this point because his strong 2021 was followed by a frustrating 2022. He made just five starts before ankle surgery ended his season. Junis had some success in a swing role last year before getting bumped into the rotation, though his results declined after that. There’s some decent ingredients in there, though the group would certainly benefit from retaining Rodón and bumping Junis back into the bullpen. If they miss on Rodón, there are plenty of other starting pitchers available, with Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom at the top of the market, followed by guys like Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Bassitt, Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker and many more.

In the bullpen, Camilo Doval seems to have stepped up and grabbed hold of the closer’s role. He tossed 67 2/3 innings in 2022, striking out 28% of batters faced and finishing with a 2.53 ERA. Those results came in high-leverage situations, with Doval racking up 27 saves. He’s yet to reach arbitration and can be retained cheaply for years to come. There are some more seasoned options behind him, like John Brebbia and Tyler Rogers. Like all clubs, the Giants are a candidate to grab a reliever or two. There are dozens of options, including Adam Ottavino, Carlos Estevez and Andrew Chafin, but perhaps the most fun reliever to consider is Taylor Rogers signing to join his twin brother Tyler.

In the end, there’s no shortage to what the Giants can do this winter. They have as much payroll flexibility as any contender and plenty of ways to use it. That could be a huge splash like Aaron Judge, one of the big shortstops, an ace for the rotation — or spreading the money around more evenly on a bunch of mid-market options. They could plausibly be connected to most of the free agents this offseason and will surely make significant moves of some kind. Just about everything is on the menu and fans are expecting a feast of giant proportions.

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Giants-centric chat on 11-21-22. Click here to read the transcript.

Tigers’ Relievers Drawing Trade Interest

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The Tigers have lots of uncertainty with their lineup and rotation but they still have some interesting hurlers in their bullpen. That’s leading to a great deal of interest on the trade market, with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic noting that the bull market for relievers so far this offseason has only added to the interest.

Back in July, MLBTR’s Steve Adams wrote about the many intriguing relievers that could make for interesting trade chips for Detroit. After the trade deadline came and went, they traded only one of them: impending free agent Michael Fulmer. Since then, they lost Wily Peralta and Andrew Chafin to free agency, the latter declining a player opt-out. But they still have plenty of talent back there, with Rosenthal listing Joe Jiménez, Gregory Soto and Alex Lange as some of the candidates, though there’s also Jason Foley, José Cisnero and Will Vest.

Trading from this group will likely be a balancing act for Scott Harris, the club’s new president of baseball operations. Subtracting talented arms from the roster will undoubtedly hurt the club’s chances at competing in the short term. However, the odds may be stacked against them anyway. The rotation will be without Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal for at least part of the year, as they are both coming off of surgeries that will keep them joining the club to start the season. Spencer Turnbull should be healthy but he missed all of 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery and will be an unknown going into next year. The lineup will be looking for bouncebacks from Javier Báez, Jonathan Schoop, Austin Meadows and Akil Baddoo, while hoping that struggling youngsters like Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson and Ryan Kreidler take steps forward. There’s a lot that needs to break right for short-term success and the club may think about sacrificing some of the present for the sake of the future.

If the club views their circumstances through this lens, each reliever will be a unique case when it comes to the calculus of considering a trade. Jiménez, for instance, has between five and six years of MLB service time. That means he’s slated for free agency one year from now. 2022 was his finest season to date, as he threw 56 2/3 innings with a 3.49 ERA, 33.3% strikeout rate, 5.6% walk rate and 33.1% ground ball rate. He might have actually been better than the ERA indicates, with his .328 BABIP well above league average. His 2.00 FIP, 2.90 xERA and 2.30 SIERA all suggest he was unlucky to have his ERA settle where it did. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a salary of just $2.6MM in his final pass through arbitration before reaching the open market. Cisnero is also just one year away from free agency, though he’s in the opposite position statistically. He posted a 1.08 ERA in 2022 but with a sky high 18.1% walk rate. A .242 BABIP kept him from really feeling the consequences of all those free passes. He’s projected for a $2.2MM salary next year.

Contracts for free agent relievers have been pricey so far, with Edwin Diaz getting $102MM for five years, Robert Suarez $46MM over five and Rafael Montero getting $34.5MM over three, making Jiménez and his modest salary quite appealing. From Detroit’s point of view, it might help them in the long run to turn their single year of control over Jiménez into prospects that can help them six or seven years down the line.

Where the calculus gets a little trickier is relievers who aren’t as close to the open market as Jiménez. Gregory Soto has just over three years of service time, meaning he’s not slated for free agency until after 2025. That means he’s much more likely to be able to help the Tigers to compete in the future but also means he could net a greater trade return. He posted a 3.28 ERA this year with a 22.8% strikeout rate and 48.1% ground ball rate, but a 12.9% walk rate. The control issue has long been present for him, as he’s never posted a walk rate below 12%. For reference, this year’s league average for relievers was 9.1%. Trading him would be somewhat akin to the Orioles moving on from Jorge López at this year’s deadline. Lopez had 2.5 years of control remaining at the time and netted the O’s four prospects, but also cost them a proven reliever who could have stayed with them down the stretch and for 2023 and 2024.

If the Tigers are willing to consider trading a pitcher with even more control, they have some options in Lange, Foley and Vest. All three of them have between one and two years of MLB service time, meaning they have five years of club control remaining. Lange had a 3.69 ERA in 63 1/3 innings this year, along with a 30.3% strikeout rate and 55.6% ground ball rate, though a high 11.4% walk rate. Foley tossed 60 1/3 frames with a 3.88 ERA, 16.8% strikeout rate, 4.3% walk rate and 57.1% ground ball rate. Vest got 63 innings of action with a 4.00 ERA, 23.2% strikeout rate, 8.1% walk rate and 49.7% ground ball rate. These guys have yet to reach arbitration and have years of cheap control, which makes them valuable to other teams but also potentially valuable to the Tigers as well.

As for the Orioles, Rosenthal mentions them as another team stacked with relievers that could garner trade interest. However, most of them are in the latter category of still having years of cheap control remaining and are thus less likely to be moved. Félix Bautista, for instance, is not on the table in trade talks.

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