Missteps In Minor Trades Hurting The Cubs In 2023
After ending their century-long championship drought in 2016, the Cubs struggled to maintain that level of competitiveness despite their talented roster, resulting in a massive sell-off at the 2021 trade deadline that is currently yielding promising results as the club works its way back towards contention. Though the club added quality players like Marcus Stroman, Seiya Suzuki, and Yan Gomes ahead of the 2022 season, it was nonetheless a clear rebuilding year for the Cubs as they looked to turn the page on the previous core and begin to build around younger players like Nico Hoerner and Justin Steele.
After a surprisingly strong finish to the 2022 campaign where the club posted a 40-31 record over the season’s final ten weeks, the Cubs looked to jump-start their return to contention with a significant financial outlay over the offseason. While the club downgraded at catcher by swapping out three-time All Star Willson Contreras for Tucker Barnhart, the club shored up the rotation with multiyear deals for Jameson Taillon and Drew Smyly and plugged a hole in center field by landing Cody Bellinger on a one-year deal.
Most importantly, the Cubs acquired a new face of the franchise by offering Dansby Swanson a seven-year deal worth $177MM. Early in the season, the club also extended both Nico Hoerner and Ian Happ through the end of the 2026 season, a further sign the team is committed to its current core of Swanson, Hoerner, Happ, Suzuki, and Steele. Unfortunately for Cubs fans, those deals have done little to pull the Cubs back into contention, as the team sports a 27-36 record as they sit 6.5 games out of a playoff spot while looking up at the Pirates, Brewers, and Reds in a weak NL Central division.
Still, the club has struggled to stay in the race, thanks in part to the struggles of many of those signings. Taillon has struggled through injuries and ineffectiveness in ten starts this season, Barnhart sports an OPS of just .433 and appears to have been supplanted by Miguel Amaya as Gomes’s primary backup, and the club’s offseason bullpen signings of Brad Boxberger and Michael Fulmer have combined for a whopping 27 earned runs in 41 innings of work.
That isn’t to say the moves president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and his front office made this past offseason were all mistakes; in fact, many of them have proven savvy in the early going. Swanson leads the quarter of star shortstops who hit free agency over the offseason in terms of both wRC+ and fWAR this season despite signing the smallest contract of the group, Bellinger has bounced back from two difficult seasons in LA to post above-average offensive numbers for the Cubs while Smyly has proven to be a stabilizing force in the club’s rotation with a 3.27 ERA (136 ERA+) in 13 starts for the Cubs this season.
The club has faced particularly significant issues on offense, with 267 runs scored in 2023, a figure that places them tied with the Padres for fourth-worst in the NL. With Bellinger, Happ, Suzuki, and Mike Tauchman posting strong numbers in the outfield while Swanson and Hoerner have been largely successful up the middle, the biggest culprits in the club’s lack of offense are the infield corners and the DH slot. The Cubs rank 22nd in the majors in terms of wRC+ at DH, 27th at third base, and 29th at first base.
With three key spots most lineups rely on to generate offense doing so at a well below-average rate, it’s no wonder the Cubs have frustrated with offensive struggles despite significant individual successes in 2023. To make matters worse, the club shipped out a pair of players in recent years who have proven to be major assets for their current clubs and would have surely shored up Chicago’s offense had they stuck on the roster.
Prior to the 2022 campaign, the Cubs traded right-handed slugger Harold Ramirez to the Rays for minor league infielder Esteban Quiroz just months after acquiring Ramirez from Cleveland. This move paved the way for the club to roster the likes of Michael Hermosillo and Clint Frazier as the 2022 season began, though both players struggled mightily, posting wRC+ figures of 16 and 87 during their time with the Cubs, respectively. Since joining the Rays, meanwhile, Ramirez has blossomed into a phenomenal slugger, with a .298/.342/.436 slash line (125 wRC+) in 170 games while playing first base, DH, and the outfield corners.
Had the Cubs held onto Ramirez, it seems likely they wouldn’t have felt the need to sign Mancini to fill a similar role this past offseason, opening up resources that could have been used to address a bullpen that ranks bottom four in the NL with a 4.53 ERA while improving significantly on Mancini’s own 83 wRC+ in 51 games this season.
As for third base, the Cubs entered spring training this season with a trio of infielders in consideration for two Opening Day roster spots: Nick Madrigal, Miles Mastrobuoni, and Zach McKinstry. Ultimately, McKinstry was shipped to Detroit in exchange for minor league reliever Carlos Guzman. That decision has proved to be another significant mistake, as Madrigal and Mastrobuoni have combined for -0.4 fWAR for the Cubs this season, with Madrigal’s 60 wRC+ in 35 games leading the duo offensively.
McKinstry, meanwhile, has gone on to post a breakout season for the Tigers. While playing second base, third base, shortstop, and both outfield corners, the 28-year-old utility player has posted a solid .256/.360/.388 slash line in 54 games that’s good for a wRC+ of 115. Had McKinstry remained with the Cubs, he could have shored up third base alongside Patrick Wisdom, who has struggled to a .149/.253/.310 slash line since the beginning of May, while also filling in elsewhere around the diamond during stints on the injured list for regulars like Suzuki and Hoerner.
In addition to the assistance both Ramirez and McKinstry could have provided the Cubs this season, each is controllable beyond the current campaign. The duo is expected to hit free agency after the 2025 and 2027 seasons, respectively, meaning both could have be key pieces in the lineup or on the bench with Chicago for years to come.
Many of the bigger moves the Cubs have made in recent years, such as the signings of Swanson, Stroman, and Suzuki, have worked out well to this point. Despite those successes, however, missteps regarding Ramirez and McKinstry have highlighted the importance of making the right moves at the margins when attempting to return to contention. Unless Wisdom, Christopher Morel, Trey Mancini, and Matt Mervis can collectively provide the internal improvements necessary at the infield corners to spark the offense going forward, the Cubs figure to enter the 2023-24 offseason with improving at the infield corners at the top of their to-do list.
Julio Urias Suffers Setback In Rehab From Hamstring Injury
Dodgers left-hander Julio Urias was set to be activated from the 15-day injured list to start tomorrow’s game against the Phillies, but manager Dave Roberts tells reporters (including Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic) that those plans have been put on hold after Urias didn’t bounce back fully from Thursday’s bullpen session. Ardaya notes that while Urias has not been shut down from throwing, he’ll be limited to throwing off flat ground for the time being, and will likely need a rehab assignment before he can return to the club’s rotation.
The news is a blow to the Dodgers, who recently put right-hander Noah Syndergaard on the IL where he and Urias are joined by the likes of Ryan Pepiot, Walker Buehler, and Dustin May. Urias was expected to help stabilize a rotation that currently only has four set starters in Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin, Bobby Miller, and Michael Grove. While right-hander Gavin Stone is healthy in the minors, Roberts noted that the 24-year-old right-hander isn’t an option for this coming turn through the rotation after the youngster pitched 4 1/3 innings in a start at the Triple-A level yesterday.
That leaves the Dodgers likely set to utilize a bullpen game on Sunday. While Gonsolin would be on regular rest if he were to start Sunday, the Dodgers appeared poised to utilize their coming off-day on Monday to rest their rotation, which a bullpen game on Sunday would still allow them to do. Andre Jackson and Justin Bruihl are the other Triple-A pitchers currently on the 40-man roster for the Dodgers.
As for Urias, his start to the 2023 season has surely not been the platform campaign he was hoping for ahead of his expected free agency this winter. Urias entered this season with a career 2.82 ERA and 3.44 FIP in 599 2/3 innings of work following a particularly stellar 2022 campaign where he led the NL in ERA while finishing top three in Cy Young award voting. All that figured to make Urias perhaps the most coveted free agent of the coming offseason this side of Shohei Ohtani, and while that certainly could still prove to be the case, Urias’s injury woes and pedestrian 4.39 ERA in ten starts this season have done little to boost his resume ahead of his first foray into free agency.
AL Central Notes: Twins, Jimenez, Pasquantino
The Twins are sending a pair of their players for further examination this weekend, as noted by Betsy Helfand of the Twin Cities Pioneer Press. According to Helfand, second baseman Jorge Polanco went for an MRI yesterday in Toronto after leaving Thursday’s game with hamstring tightness while left-hander Caleb Thielbar is set to return to Minnesota for an MRI of his own this weekend after the club placed him on the injured list with an oblique strain earlier this week.
Both players have been key pieces for the Twins when healthy but have struggled to stay on the field this season. Polanco has been limited to just 30 games, but has slashed .250/.291/.450 with a 105 wRC+ during that time. Thielbar, on the other hand, posted a 1.80 ERA in 10 innings prior to going on the injured list at the beginning of May. The veteran lefty was activated earlier this week but recorded just one out on a major league mound before returning to the injured list with his current oblique issue.
With Thielbar on the shelf, the Twins are relying on Jovani Moran as the sole left-handed reliever in their bullpen, though the 26-year-old has posted a solid 3.86 ERA and 3.67 FIP in 25 2/3 innings of work this season. Meanwhile, Kyle Farmer filled in for Polanco at the keystone yesterday, though if the switch-hitting second baseman requires a stint on the injured list, it seems likely the Twins would turn to Edouard Julien, who has posted a .226/.310/.452 slash line in 72 major league plate appearances while shuttling between the majors and Triple-A this season.
More from around the AL Central…
- White Sox manager Pedro Grifol told reporters, including Rob Schaefer of the Chicago Sun Times, that slugger Eloy Jimenez would be out for the next few days after he sustained a lower left leg injury during Thursday’s doubleheader against the Yankees. While Grifol notes that the injury is more significant than its initial day-to-day designation indicated, the club is still optimistic that Jimenez will be able to avoid a stint on the injured list, which would be his third this season. Jimenez, who has slashed .257/.315/.434 in 35 games with the White Sox this season, figures to be filled in for at DH by Jake Burger.
- Jaylon Thompson of the Kansas City Star notes that Royals first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino, who left yesterday’s game against the Orioles with right shoulder discomfort, is still being evaluated by the team’s medical staff. Any time missed by Pasquantino would be a significant blow to the Royals, as the 25-year-old slugger has been one of the club’s few consistent offensive performers, though his .247/.324/.437 slash line (107 wRC+) hasn’t quite lived up to his phenomenal rookie season, when he posted a wRC+ of 137. Nick Pratto figures to take over at first base if Pasquantino were to miss significant time.
Pete Alonso To Miss 3-4 Weeks With Bone Bruise, Sprain Of Left Wrist
The Mets announced that first baseman Pete Alonso has been diagnosed with a bone bruise and a sprain of his left wrist, with the expected return timeline as three to four weeks. He has been placed on the 10-day injured list as part of a slate of moves that also involves right-hander Stephen Nogosek being designated for assignment. Infielder Luis Guillorme and left-hander Zach Muckenhirn were recalled in corresponding moves.
Additionally, the club announced that catcher Tomás Nido has been outrighted to Triple-A Syracuse and that right-hander Edwin Uceta underwent surgery to address a torn meniscus in his left knee, with an expected return timeline of eight weeks.
Losing Alonso is the biggest development for the Mets, of course. Reports emerged this morning suggesting MLB’s home run leader was headed to the IL. He’ll be out beyond the minimal stay, though the silver lining is that he didn’t suffer a fracture. Alonso’s absence likely opens first base for rookie Mark Vientos, who’s in the lineup at designated hitter tonight against Pittsburgh starter Rich Hill. Outfielder Mark Canha slides over to first base this evening.
Nogosek has logged action for the Mets in four different seasons. He’s worked 57 1/3 innings across 33 career relief outings, posting a 5.02 ERA. The Oregon product has tallied a career-high 25 2/3 frames this season, pitching to a 5.61 ERA with middling peripherals. He’s striking hitters out at a slightly below-average 21.2% rate while walking nearly 12% of opponents. He’s surrendered six home runs, one of which came off the bat of Marcell Ozuna in last night’s disheartening extra-inning loss to the Braves.
The 28-year-old Nogosek has exhausted his minor league option years. The Mets had no choice but to take him off the 40-man roster to remove him from the big league club. They’ll have a week to deal him or look to run him through waivers. If another team rolled the dice on a claim, they’d also have to keep him in the majors or designate him for assignment.
Nido went through the DFA process earlier in the week. The Mets reportedly explored trade scenarios after taking him off the roster but apparently didn’t find sufficient interest. They waived him instead. He’s gone unclaimed, in part on account of a $1.6MM salary this season and a guaranteed $2.1MM next year.
The Mets DFA Nido just before he was set to surpass five years of major league service. That meant that while he can technically decline the minor league assignment in favor of free agency, he’d have to relinquish that guaranteed money to do so. With other clubs apparently unwilling to match that deal, Nido is accepting the assignment to Syracuse, tweets Mike Puma of the New York Post. He’ll stick in the organization as a defensive depth option but no longer occupies a 40-man roster spot.
As for Uceta, he joined New York at the start of April on a waiver claim from the Pirates. He made one three-inning appearance at the big league level and pitched twice more in Triple-A. He initially landed on the injured list with an ankle sprain but apparently suffered a knee injury while rehabbing. The Mets could move him to the 60-day IL if they need a 40-man roster spot at some point, though the recent DFA’s of Nido and Nogosek have already dropped that tally to 38.
William Cuevas Signs With KBO’s KT Wiz
The KT Wiz of the Korea Baseball Organization have signed right-hander William Cuevas, the team announced (h/t to Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net). He’ll receive a $450K salary. In a corresponding move, the Wiz released righty Beau Sulser.
Cuevas, who pitched in the majors between 2016-18, had been in Triple-A with the Dodgers after signing a minor league deal in April. He started nine of 11 appearances for their Oklahoma City affiliate, working to a 6.14 ERA through 44 frames. Cuevas had a decent 22.1% strikeout rate but struggled with home runs in the difficult Pacific Coast League setting. The Dodgers granted him his release yesterday, which Triple-A communications director Alex Freedman notes (on Twitter) coincides with the recent signing of veteran lefty Mike Montgomery to a non-roster deal.
While the jump from an American to an Asian professional league could lead to an adjustment for some players, Cuevas shouldn’t have much trouble getting acclimated. He signed with this same Wiz club leading into the 2019 season and spent three-plus years there. Cuevas was a reliable rotation fixture through 2021, helping them win the Korean Series during his third year. An elbow injury led the Wiz to let him go last May. Now that he’s healthy, they’ll bring him back to a familiar setting.
Sulser signed with the Wiz last November. The 29-year-old made nine starts but struggled to a 5.62 ERA through 49 2/3 innings. He struck out a fairly modest 15.8% of opponents against a quality 6.3% walk rate. The KBO club moved on quickly once the chance to reunite with Cuevas presented itself.
As a result, Sulser returns to the open market and could seek out minor league landing spots. He has ten games of major league experience, all coming last season between the Pirates and Orioles. Sulser has a 5.17 ERA over 179 1/3 frames at the Triple-A level.
White Sox Release Daniel Ponce de Leon
The White Sox have released right-hander Daniel Ponce de Leon, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com.
Ponce de Leon, 31, had signed a minor league deal with the Sox in April and has been pitching for the Triple-A Charlotte Knights. He had been working largely out of the rotation for them, starting seven of his eight appearances this year. Unfortunately, the results weren’t good, as he posted an ERA of 9.99 in 24 1/3 innings. He struck out just 14.5% of batters faced while walking a huge 18.3%.
The righty has some major league experience, which came with the Cardinals from 2018 to 2021. He tossed 147 2/3 innings over those campaigns, registering a 4.33 ERA with a solid 23.9% strikeout rate but a 12.7% walk rate. Since that time, he’s bounced around to various farm systems but hasn’t been able to get into a good groove. He spent all of 2022 in Triple-A, pitching at that level for the Mariners, Nationals and Tigers. But he had a combined 6.52 ERA in 116 innings for those clubs on the year.
Ponce de Leon will now be free to explore and discover his next landing spot. Though he hasn’t been at his best for a few years, he at least has some decent major league outings on his résumé. With various clubs around the league dealing with significant pitching injuries, perhaps he will find a port of call with another organization in the near future.
Jack Baldschun Passes Away
Former big league reliever Jack Baldschun passed away this week after a battle with leukemia, according to an obituary from the Malcore Funeral Home in Green Bay. He was 86 years old.
An Ohio native, Baldschun entered the minor league ranks in 1956 as a signee of the Washington Senators. He’d spent four years in the Reds’ organization thereafter before moving to the Phillies during the 1960 Rule 5 draft. That set the stage for the right-hander to make his big league debut with Philadelphia in April 1961.
Baldschun took an immediate key role on the Phils’ pitching staff. He logged 99 2/3 innings over 65 relief appearances as a rookie, leading the majors in pitching appearances. Baldschun posted a 3.88 ERA, then followed up with consecutive sub-3.00 showings. He pitched to a 2.96 ERA over 112 2/3 frames of relief in 1962, then posted a career-best 2.30 mark in 113 2/3 innings the next season.
While he didn’t quite keep his ERA below 3.00 for a third straight year, Baldschun tossed a personal-high 118 1/3 frames of 3.12 ball in 1964. He fell just shy of the century mark the following season, working to a 3.82 ERA over 99 innings.
Over the stretch between 1961-65, only Hoyt Wilhelm, Ron Perranoski and Stu Miller absorbed a heavier workload out of the bullpen. Baldschun posted a cumulative 3.18 ERA and, while the save wouldn’t become an official statistic until the end of the decade, he’d be retroactively credited with 59 of them.
After the ’65 season, Philadelphia traded Baldschun to the Orioles. Baltimore would flip him back to Cincinnati within a matter of days, packaging him in one of the most impactful trades in MLB history. Baldschun joined starter Milt Pappas and outfielder Dick Simpson in heading to the Reds for Frank Robinson. The future Hall of Famer would go to win an MVP in his first season in Baltimore and help the club to a pair of World Series titles.
Baldschun never really found his form with the Reds, pitching to a 5.25 ERA in parts of two seasons. He signed with the Padres going into 1969 and pitched for two years there. He retired after the 1970 campaign, having appeared in parts of nine MLB seasons. Altogether, Baldschun pitched 704 innings over 457 games as one of the top bullpen workhorses of the 1960s. He posted a 3.69 ERA, struck out 555 and finished 267 contests.
MLBTR sends our condolences to Baldschun’s family, friends and loved ones.
David Dahl Elects Free Agency
Outfielder David Dahl went unclaimed on outright waivers and elected minor league free agency, tweets Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The Pads had designated him for assignment when reinstating Adrián Morejón from the injured list earlier in the week.
Dahl signed a minor league pact with San Diego over the winter. He broke camp but appeared in only four MLB games. A quad strain cost him some time early and he spent the bulk of his time on optional assignment to Triple-A El Paso. Dahl got into 17 games there, hitting .265/.342/.382 with one home run.
That’s modest power production in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. Dahl did demonstrate strong plate discipline in that limited time, walking eight times against seven strikeouts. The lefty-swinging outfielder has now appeared in parts of six seasons at that level. In a little less than 800 trips to the plate, he’s hitting .299/.352/.488 against Triple-A pitching.
Dahl was an All-Star outfielder for the Rockies early in his career. He hasn’t gotten much major league run in the past few years. Dahl missed a good chunk of 2020 to injury, slumped to a .210/.247/.322 showing for the Rangers in ’21, then spent all of last season in the minors. He’ll likely look for minor league opportunities on the open market.
Vince Velasquez Undergoes Elbow Surgery; Expected To Miss Roughly A Year
6:36pm: Pittsburgh director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk indicated Velasquez was likely to miss 11-12 months, writes Justice delos Santos of MLB.com. He won’t been throwing until around November. Obviously, that’ll cut into the righty’s availability for the first half of the 2024 campaign.
3:55pm: Pirates right-hander Vince Velasquez has undergone season-ending elbow surgery, reports Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
Velasquez, 31, was signed by the Pirates this winter to a one-year, $3.15MM deal. The club was likely hoping that he could provide a stable source of veteran innings, alongside fellow offseason signee Rich Hill, as they also gave auditions to younger pitchers like Mitch Keller, Roansy Contreras, Johan Oviedo and Luis Ortiz.
The plan worked fairly well for a while, as Velasquez got out to a strong start. He made eight starts for the Bucs with a 3.86 ERA, striking out 22.8% of batters faced against an 8.6% walk rate. He was placed on the injured list in early May due to elbow inflammation and came back later that month. However, he departed his return start after just two innings due to renewed discomfort in that elbow.
It was reported last week that Velasquez would eventually be moved to the 60-day injured list, which seemed to point to a significant absence. That has now come to fruition with today’s news that he required some sort of serious surgery. It’s not clear exactly what sort of surgery took place, but it will apparently end his 2023 and perhaps impact his 2024 as well if it were something as serious as Tommy John surgery, though further details will undoubtedly come out in time.
It’s surely a frustrating development for both the player and the team. Velasquez has been fairly inconsistent in his career, with his ERA oscillating between a low of 4.12 in 2016 and a high of 6.30 in 2021. Though it was a fairly small sample, his 2023 was on pace to potentially be his strongest yet, though it now appears to be done. He will be a free agent this winter, though the level of interest he receives will be affected by the severity of the surgery and his health going forward.
For the Bucs, this will be a blow to their rotation depth as they are hovering in the playoff race for the first time in years after a lengthy rebuild. They are currently 32-29 and holding the last Wild Card spot in the National League. If they manage to stay afloat in that race, the diminished depth will present them with a challenge. Velasquez also would have been a logical trade candidate if they fell back in the race given his impending free agency, though that won’t even be a call the front office has to make anymore.
Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History, #5: Pirates Get A Shortstop With Elite Tools For Tony Watson
With the trade deadline now less than two months away, we at MLBTR are setting our sights backwards for a bit to highlight past trades of rental players to provide a loose guideline of what sort of returns fans can expect with their teams’ current rental players. With an arbitrary cutoff point of 2017-21, we’re counting down the top 10 returns that a team got when selling a rental player. We’ve already published some honorable mentions as well as entries No. 10, No. 9, No. 8, No. 7. and No. 6. If you disagree with our rankings, let us know! It’s all part of the subjective fun! Onto No. 6…
The Pirates endured a long postseason drought that spanned the changing of the millenium. They made the postseason in three straight years from 1990 to 1992 but then didn’t return for over 20 years. They had another three-year run beginning in 2013, qualifying for the Wild Card game that year as well as the next two. They couldn’t keep it going in 2016, dropping to 78-83 and missing the postseason.
The club had many star players in that time, particularly Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, Russell Martin, Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano and others, but one fixture of those Pittsburgh clubs was left-handed reliever Tony Watson. Drafted by the Bucs in 2007, he made it to the majors in 2011. He tossed 41 innings in his debut season with a 3.95 ERA, securing 10 holds in the process.
He would get even better in the seasons to come, his peak coinciding with those postseason years for the Pirates. He had a miniscule 1.63 ERA in 77 1/3 innings in 2014, striking out 26.6% of batters faced while walking 4.9% and getting grounders on 47.7% of balls in play. He only notched a couple of saves as Mark Melancon was in the closer’s role, but Watson tallied 34 holds.
Watson’s effectiveness would fade a bit in the subsequent seasons, hardly a surprise given that his excellent 2014 campaign would be almost impossible to maintain. His ERA climbed to 1.91 in 2015 and then 3.06 in 2016. His strikeout rate also fell to 21.2% and 21.3% in those seasons. Nonetheless, he was still a very effective relief pitcher.
The Pirates weren’t able to bounce back from their down season in 2016. At the end of July 2017, they were sporting a record of 51-54, fourth place in the National League Central and 8.5 games back in the Wild Card race. Watson was pitching fine that year, with a 3.66 ERA at the time. But since he was just a few months away from free agency and the club was struggling, it made sense to move on.
Watson had spent his entire career with the Pirates up until he was traded to the Dodgers on July 31, 2017. He made 24 appearances for his new club with a 2.70 ERA as they finished 104-58, the best record in the majors. He made 11 more appearances in the postseason with a 2.70 ERA. The Dodgers eventually lost the World Series in what will go down as a major “what if” since it was the now-infamous sign-stealing Astros club that emerged victorious in seven games.
In exchange for Watson, the Pirates got a couple of younger players from the Dodgers. One of them was 21-year-old right-hander Angel German. He wasn’t considered a top prospect but had a 1.91 ERA in Single-A that year. Unfortunately, he bumped that to a 6.92 ERA in High-A in 2018 and then a 4.33 in Double-A in 2019. He reached free agency and signed a minor league deal with the Rays going into 2020, but was released in May of 2020 amid the pandemic shutdown. He hasn’t pitched in an official capacity since.
The other player in the deal was 18-year-old infielder Oneil Cruz. He had signed with the Dodgers in July of 2015 as a 16-year-old international amateur, securing a bonus of $950K. He played in the Dominican Summer League in 2016, hitting .294/.367/.444 in 211 plate appearances and stealing 11 bases.
Going into 2017, Baseball America ranked him the #27 prospect in the Dodgers system and their report highlighted something that has been a subject of interest in the years since: his size. “Cruz is a great example of the challenges unique to international scouting,” the report states. “As a 15-year-old working out for clubs in the Dominican Republic, Cruz was a 6-foot-1 shortstop. By the time he signed with the Dodgers for $950,000 as a 16-year-old, Cruz had shot up to 6-foot-4. He grew taller after signing, and by the time the 2016 Dominican Summer League season began, he was pushing 6-foot-6.”
Cruz actually was slumping in the first half of 2017, as he was hitting just .240/.293/.342 in 89 Single-A games. He had eight home runs and eight stolen bases but was striking out at a 29.3% clip. Nonetheless, the Pirates decided to take a gamble on him and brought him aboard in the Watson deal.
Six years later, it certainly seems like it was a worthwhile gamble. Cruz has risen through the ranks over the years, becoming a top 100 prospect thanks to his elite tools. He got a very brief two-game cup of coffee in the majors at the end of 2021 but then was sent back to the minors at the start of 2022. He was recalled in June and showed both the reasons for his prospect hype but also the concerning parts of his game.
Cruz has arguably the best raw athletic traits of any player in the league. His 122.4 mph maximum exit velocity was tops in the majors last year. His sprint speed was in the 98th percentile. His arm strength was in the 97th percentile. In short, he can hit for power, run and throw among the best in the world.
But one of the major questions around Cruz as a prospect was whether his height, now 6’7″, would prevent him from playing shortstop. No one that size had ever successfully played the position before. The other question was whether or not his penchant for strikeouts would become too much of a problem. Neither of those questions were definitively answered last year.
Despite hitting 17 home runs in 87 games, Cruz went down on strikes in 34.9% of his plate appearances. Among players with at least 350 trips to the plate, only Joey Gallo and Chris Taylor were punched out at a higher rate. On the defensive side of things, the reviews were mixed. Defensive Runs Saved gave him a grade of +1, but Ultimate Zone Rating came in at -7.5 and Outs Above Average at -9.
2023 was going to be an important season for Cruz, still just 24, to show the Pirates if he were capable of improving in either of those areas. Unfortunately, after just nine games, he suffered an ankle fracture during an awkward slide in a close play at home plate. The estimated timeline on that injury was four months, meaning he could be back in August if that prediction holds.
It’s still unknown whether Cruz will reach his full potential or not. Despite the injury setback, the Pirates have time to find out, as Cruz isn’t slated for free agency until after 2028. He and the club have also discussed an extension that could potentially keep him around even longer. Regardless of how it plays out, the Pirates have a player who arguably has one of the highest ceilings in the sport. If he takes a step forward in terms of defense and plate discipline, his tools will give him the chance to be one of the best players in the league.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.