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Andy Pages

Roberts: Andy Pages To Continue Seeing Regular Playing Time

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The Dodgers activated veteran outfielder Teoscar Hernandez from the injured list yesterday and optioned James Outman to Triple-A Oklahoma City. Hernandez’s return won’t cut into the playing time of hot-hitting 24-year-old Andy Pages, it seems. Manager Dave Roberts told the Dodgers beat last night that Pages is “an everyday player” who’ll see only occasional off-days (including last night).

It would indeed be hard to cut into Pages’ playing time based on his performance of late. The former top prospect posted a league-average .248/.305/.407 slash (100 wRC+) as a rookie but has raked at a .280/.333/.494 clip with nine home runs in just 177 plate appearances in 2025. He and Hernandez have been far and away the team’s two most productive outfielders this year.

There are some reasons to take Pages’ breakout with a grain of salt. He hasn’t made substantial changes to an approach at the plate that still seems like it could use work. Pages fanned in 24.4% of his plate appearances as a rookie and walked at just a 6.5% clip. Both marks were worse than league average. In 2025, he’s slightly pared back the strikeouts (23.2%) but has seen his walk rate dip as well (5.6%). The league-average strikeout rate is 22%;  for walks, it’s 8.7%.

Pages is making more contact on pitches within the strike zone, jumping from a slightly below-average 84.8% last year to a healthier 88.2% in 2025. (League-average hovers between 85% and 85.5%.) However, he’s also chasing off the plate more frequently this season and swinging more often in general. Of the 165 qualified hitters in Major League Baseball, only 15 have swung more often than Pages, who’s offered at just under 54% of the pitches he sees. Hitters can certainly succeed with an aggressive approach — Pete Crow-Armstrong swings more often than any hitter in the National League — but Pages has well below-average quality of contact.

None of this is to say Pages can’t or won’t be a solid hitter — but continuing on at a pace that’s about 30% better than average seems unlikely without some refinement to his approach or an uptick in hard contact. Even if he’s “only” around 10% better than average at the plate for the rest of the season, he’s a clear everyday player, given his glovework in center field and his plus speed.

With Pages locked into regular or near-regular reps in center field and Hernandez back to his post in right field, the Dodgers will look to a combination of Michael Conforto and Tommy Edman in left field. Edman figures to be out there on days that Hyeseong Kim gets the nod at second base, although Kim has also played some center field and pushed Pages to left field. Broadly speaking, left field will be handled in more piecemeal fashion.

The 32-year-old Conforto, signed to a one-year deal worth $17MM this offseason, has struggled immensely thus far but still seems like he’ll get the lion’s share of playing time for now. Both that contract and some positive traits that run counter to his bleak .168/.304/.273 slash through 171 plate appearances should net him a bit more leash. Conforto is walking at a huge 13.5% clip, and he’s averaging 91 mph off the bat while putting 47% of his batted balls in play at 95 mph or greater. He’s not expanding the zone all that often, and his contact rate within the zone is nearly 86%.

At some point, the results will need to be there for him to continue getting chances, but it’s understandable right now if the Dodgers are convinced better days are ahead. Conforto mashed at a .273/.329/.529 pace in a near identical playing time sample of 173 plate appearances following the 2024 trade deadline, which helped him secure that contract in the first place.

Division Series Roster Notes: Padres, Dodgers, Phillies, Yankees, Tigers

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We’ve already covered some notable roster additions for the Guardians and Mets as the Division Series begins, and the Royals are sticking with the same 26 players used in the Wild Card Series against the Orioles.  Now that all eight teams in the LDS rounds have revealed their rosters, here are the details…

  • The Padres made two changes from their NLDS roster, adding left-hander Martin Perez and right-hander Alek Jacob and removing Joe Musgrove and infielder Nick Ahmed.  Musgrove was obviously out due to his impending Tommy John surgery, while replacing Ahmed with a pitcher gives San Diego 13 pitchers to go with 13 position players.  Perez is one of five southpaws on San Diego’s roster, as ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez (X link) was among those who noted that the Padres are guarding themselves as best they can against Shohei Ohtani and other powerful left-handed Dodgers bats.
  • The Dodgers will go with an even mix of 13 batters and 13 pitchers, and rookie Edgardo Henriquez has made the list of available arms.  Henriquez only made his MLB debut on September 24 and he has played in just three games as a big leaguer, but Los Angeles will give the hard-throwing righty a look in October to add some velocity to the bullpen.  It’s probably safe to assume that Henriquez wouldn’t have made the cut if the Dodgers weren’t ravaged by pitching injuries, yet the rookie also got the nod over veteran Joe Kelly, who had an inconsistent year but was pitching well after returning from the IL in mid-September.  On the position player side, L.A. didn’t include either Kevin Kiermaier or James Outman, so Andy Pages will be the only true backup outfielder along with utilitymen Enrique Hernandez and Chris Taylor in the bench mix.
  • The Phillies will use 14 position players and 12 pitchers in their NLDS matchup with the Mets, with left-hander Kolby Allard joining the relief corps.  Allard has worked as something of a swingman throughout his career, and this ability of covering multiple innings earned Allard the spot, as manager Rob Thomson told MLB.com’s Paul Casella and other reporters.  “He’s going to probably give us the most length if we get into an extra-inning game….so I just wanted as much length as we could get,” Thomson said.  Utilityman Weston Wilson also got the Phils’ last bench spot, as Casella observes that Wilson brings more positional versatility than outfielder Cal Stevenson.
  • The Yankees went heavier on position players (15) than pitchers (11) for their ALDS roster against the Royals.  Anthony Rizzo is missing the series due to two broken fingers and DJ LeMahieu wasn’t yet activated from the injured list, but New York still has plenty of room on its bench, including pinch-running specialist Duke Ellis.  The Yankees appear to be loading up on bats to take on the Royals’ tough rotation and more porous bullpen, which left right-hander Marcus Stroman off the ALDS roster as the odd man out of the starting staff.
  • The Tigers made just one change from their Wild Card Series roster, as rookie righty Keider Montero has been included in place of Casey Mize.  Montero posted a 4.76 ERA over 98 1/3 innings in his first Major League season, starting 16 of 19 games.  This doesn’t necessarily mean Montero will start against the Guardians in the ALDS, however, as Detroit’s pitching staff (apart from ace Tarik Skubal) is very malleable in terms of specific roles.

Dodgers Designate Nick Ahmed For Assignment

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The Dodgers designated shortstop Nick Ahmed for assignment and optioned rookie outfielder Andy Pages to Triple-A Oklahoma City this evening. The move opened spots on the major league roster for Max Muncy and Tommy Edman, both of whom have returned from the 60-day injured list. Ahmed’s DFA opened one spot on the 40-man roster, while the Dodgers transferred River Ryan to the 60-day IL to create an additional spot. Ryan underwent Tommy John surgery and is done for the season. Los Angeles also recalled catcher Hunter Feduccia and placed veteran backup Austin Barnes on the 10-day injured list with a toe fracture.

Ahmed signed with the Dodgers a month ago. With Mookie Betts and Miguel Rojas out at the time, Los Angeles added Ahmed directly onto the major league roster. The defensive stalwart started 14 games at shortstop. He continued to provide defensive value but didn’t produce much offensively. While Ahmed hit a go-ahead home run to help beat the Giants (his former team) early in his Dodger tenure, he ultimately hit just .229/.245/.292 in 49 trips to the plate.

Between San Francisco and L.A., Ahmed carries a .232/.271/.300 batting line through 221 plate appearances. While he has never been a huge offensive threat, Ahmed has particularly struggled at the dish over the last two seasons. The two-time Gold Glove winner remains a strong defender, but the lack of firepower at the plate has squeezed him off a trio of rosters within the past two seasons. The Dodgers have welcomed Betts and Rojas back in recent weeks. Even with Betts returning to the outfield, they were comfortable enough with their infield depth to waive deadline pickup Amed Rosario after five games.

Los Angeles now adds two more infield-capable players in Muncy and Edman. The former should return to his everyday work at third base, moving Enrique Hernández back into a utility role. Muncy has been out for three months after suffering an oblique strain that proved more significant than the team initially expected. The power-hitting infielder was out to a .223/.323/.475 start to the season.

Edman is a versatile defender who can play essentially anywhere aside from catcher. He has spent the entire 2024 campaign on the injured list. Edman underwent postseason surgery on his right wrist while he was a member of the Cardinals. St. Louis hoped he’d be ready around Opening Day, yet a much slower recovery process kept him from even going on a rehab assignment until mid-July. The Dodgers nevertheless acquired Edman alongside Michael Kopech in a three-team trade that was one of the biggest moves of deadline season. St. Louis landed Erick Fedde and Tommy Pham from Chicago, who centered their return around Miguel Vargas from Los Angeles.

The Stanford product is now set for his Dodger debut. Manager Dave Roberts told reporters last week that Edman will get the bulk of his work in center field (X link via Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic). A middle infielder by trade, Edman had never started a major league game in center until last season. The Cards gave him 310 2/3 innings there and were rewarded with strong defensive grades — which has been a theme for Edman no matter where he’s played — in that relatively limited sample.

Plugging Edman into the outfield squeezes Pages off the MLB roster for now. The 23-year-old has had a decent if unexceptional rookie season, hitting .246/.305/.388 across 394 trips to the plate. Kevin Kiermaier should move into a fourth outfield capacity while Pages gets everyday playing time for a couple weeks in OKC. Reporter Francys Romero tweets that the Dodgers are likely to recall the Cuban-born outfielder once active rosters expand to 28 players on September 1.

Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times first observed that Pages and Ahmed were being sent out.

Dodgers Designate Taylor Trammell For Assignment

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The Dodgers announced a series of roster moves in advance of tonight’s matchup with the Nationals. Los Angeles confirmed their previously reported selection of reliever Eduardo Salazar and recalls of righty Kyle Hurt and outfielder Andy Pages. To create spots on the roster, the Dodgers optioned relievers Ricky Vanasco and Nick Ramirez and designated outfielder Taylor Trammell for assignment. The latter move clears the necessary 40-man roster spot for Salazar.

Trammell only spent two weeks on the L.A. roster. The Dodgers claimed him off waivers from the Mariners on April 2. He barely played, going hitless with three strikeouts in six plate appearances. Trammell appeared in five games but only got one start. As an out-of-options player who was clearly relegated to a depth role, his spot in the organization was tenuous. Pages, one of the organization’s top prospects, will step into the vacated outfield spot.

The 26-year-old Trammell was once a top minor league talent himself. The 35th overall pick in the 2016 draft by the Reds, he was twice involved in significant trades. He went to the Padres in a 2019 deadline deal and was flipped to the Mariners the following season. Trammell debuted with the M’s in 2021 and spent parts of three years in Seattle, but he never hit at the level the Mariners had envisioned.

In 351 plate appearances, the lefty hitter turned in a .168/.270/.368 slash. He drew a decent number of walks and hit 15 homers in 121 games, but he hasn’t made consistent contact. Trammell has gone down on strikes at an untenable 37.3% clip against big league pitching. That has now squeezed him off a pair of rosters.

The Dodgers have a week to trade Trammell or put him on waivers. Los Angeles was near the bottom of the waiver priority when they successfully claimed him a couple weeks ago, so they may be able to get him through the wire unclaimed. If another team does take a flier on Trammell, they’d have to keep him on the MLB team or designate him for assignment themselves.

Dodgers To Promote Andy Pages

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The Dodgers are calling up top outfield prospect Andy Pages, as first reported by Francys Romero (X link). The 23-year-old is already on L.A.’s 40-man roster, so they’ll only need to make a corresponding 26-man move, though it’s possible his promotion still leads to a 40-man move. Speculatively speaking, fellow outfielder Taylor Trammell could be at risk with Pages’ ascension to the big leagues, and Trammell is a recent waiver claim who’s out of minor league options.

Pages currently ranks as baseball’s No. 94 overall prospect at MLB.com and No. 95 overall at Baseball America. He garnered additional top-100 fanfare heading into the 2023 season but saw his stock take a bit of a hit due to injury troubles; Pages’ 2023 campaign ended when he underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder in early June.

That injury came on the heels of Pages’ first promotion to the Triple-A level. He appeared in just one game with the Dodgers’ Oklahoma City affiliate but had turned in a stout .284/.430/.495 batting line in 142 Double-A plate appearances prior to that move up the minor league ladder. The righty-swinging Pages has obliterated Triple-A pitching in the early stages of the 2024 season, tallying 73 plate appearances and recording a .371/.452/.694 slash with five homers, three doubles, a triple, two steals, an 11% walk rate and a 17.8% strikeout rate.

Pages draws praise for his raw power — which couples nicely with a swing and approach geared for lifting the ball — and plate discipline. He can play all three outfield positions, though scouting reports at BA and MLB.com suggest he profiles best in a corner, where he has the speed and instincts to be a capable defender.

The Dodgers’ outfield currently features Teoscar Hernandez in right, with a combination of James Outman, Enrique Hernandez, Chris Taylor and the aforementioned Trammell rounding things out in the other two spots. Jason Heyward is currently on the injured list with a lower back issue, though when healthy, he and Hernandez can be expected to roam the corners most days. Pages could potentially serve as a righty-hitting complement to Heyward and/or Outman, though it shouldn’t come as a surprise if the Dodgers plan to get him more regular work than the short side of a platoon.

Given the timing of the promotion, Pages can’t accrue a full year of big league service time in 2024 — at least not solely by remaining on the roster. Because he was regarded as a top-100 prospect on multiple outlets, he’d qualify for a full year of service time if he finishes in the top two in this year’s National League Rookie of the Year voting. Barring that — and pending future optional assignments bac to the minors, which are a firm possibility — Pages will be controllable all the way through 2030. If he’s in the big leagues to stay, he’ll be a surefire Super Two player who’s eligible for arbitration four times, rather than the standard three, beginning in the 2026-27 offseason.

Dodgers’ Prospect Andy Pages Undergoes Shoulder Surgery

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Dodgers’ prospect Andy Pages underwent surgery on a torn labrum in his shoulder last week, reports Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic. The outfielder is expected to be ready for Spring Training, which seems to point towards him not returning in 2023.

It’s an obviously unfortunate development for both Pages and the Dodgers. The 22-year-old was pushing towards his first major league call-up, having recently been promoted from Double-A to Triple-A. Pages also already has a spot on the 40-man roster, having been added in November to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. Those factors could have allowed him to become a legitimate depth option for the Dodgers in the latter half of this season but that now seems to be off the table.

Pages, 22, is broadly considered to be one the club’s top 10 prospects and is even considered a top 100 guy in the league by some outlets. Each of FanGraphs, MLB Pipeline and Keith Law of The Athletic have him between #59 and #67 on their respective lists, though Pages isn’t in the top 100 at Baseball America or ESPN.

Despite the somewhat divisive nature of those evaluations, it’s generally agreed that he has tremendous power at the plate. His approach in the box involves a swing designed for optimizing launch angle to the pull side. That leads to home runs but also strikeouts, though he does have a keen enough eye to draw walks.

He spent all of last year in Double-A, striking out at a 24.5% rate but also walking 10.9% of the time while launching 26 home runs. His .236/.336/.468 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 102, or 2% above league average. He returned to that level this year and showed positive signs of development, getting his strikeout rate down to 22.5% while his walk rate ticked up to 17.6%. His .284/.430/.495 batting line amounted to a 146 wRC+.

Defensively, Pages has played all three outfield positions but the consensus seems to be that he won’t really be a viable option in center field. Evaluators think he can be an average defender in a corner, with his strong arm making him a good fit for right field.

Based on his strong start this year, he was promoted to Triple-A and played one game at that level on May 16. He hasn’t played since that game a couple of weeks ago and it now seems he may not play another until next season.

The Dodgers have some fluidity to their outfield at the moment, as Mookie Betts have been spending some time in the middle infield in addition to his customary right field spot. James Outman, Jason Heyward, David Peralta and Chris Taylor have also been in the mix, though Trayce Thompson just landed on the injured list today. Manager Dave Roberts says that Thompson will miss at least a month due to his left oblique strain, per Ardaya. Roberts adds that the right-handed hitting Jonny DeLuca, recalled today in a corresponding move for Thompson, will play against left-handed pitchers.

Pages also hits from the right side and could have been in the mix for such a role were he not injured. He and DeLuca were each promoted to Triple-A on the same day and would have had similar cases for making the jump to the majors. That’s a moot point now as Pages will be focused on rehabbing for the next several months.

Dodgers Select Four Players

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The Dodgers have selected catcher Diego Cartaya, infielder Michael Busch and outfielders Andy Pages and Jonny DeLuca to the 40-man roster, per a team announcement. That quartet is now protected from being taken in next month’s Rule 5 Draft.

It’s a notable group to join the 40-man roster. Cartaya, Busch and Pages, in particular, all rank among Baseball America’s top 100 prospects in the game, with Cartaya drawing a particularly impressive placement at No. 9 overall.

The 21-year-old Cartaya split his 2022 season between Class-A and High-A, where he was notably younger than the league average at both levels. The age gap didn’t deter him, however, as he turned in a combined .254/.389/.503 batting line with 22 home runs and doubles alike. Cartaya is considered a work in progress with the glove but boasts huge raw power and a keen eye at the plate, evidenced by a walk rate north of 14% in 2022.

Busch, meanwhile, is a second baseman who slugged 32 home runs, walked at an 11.5% clip and struck out in 26% of his plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A in 2022. His combined .274/.365/.516 batting line shows plenty of promise, even though scouting reports question his overall defensive value. BA lists him 46th on its top 100.

Pages, ranked 72nd by BA, hit .236/.336/.468 in 132 games as a 21-year-old in Double-A, more than holding his own against more advanced pitching. He also fared well in the Arizona Fall League, batting .296/.398/.506 in his 98 plate appearances there. He swatted 26 home runs in Double-A this year and 31 in High-A a year ago, and BA notes that Pages has some of the best raw power of any prospect in baseball.

As for DeLuca, the 24-year-old doesn’t draw the same fanfare as today’s other three additions, but his .260/.347/.541 batting line, 25 homers, 22 doubles, five triples and 17 stolen bases were convincing enough for the Dodgers to protect him. DeLuca fanned in just 14.3% of his 119 plate appearances in Double-A this year, and while that’s a small sample from a late-in-the-year promotion, it likely tickets him for a return effort there to begin the 2023 season. With a strong showing, he could be in Triple-A before long, and a look in the Majors next season is certainly plausible now that he’s in the upper minors and on the 40-man.

Big Hype Prospects: Ginn, Julien, Pages, Veen, Rocker

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Voting for the final participants of the Fall Stars Game is underway. The game itself is scheduled for 3pm CT on Sunday, November 6. If you happen to be in the area, swing by the game and meet up with participants of the First Pitch Arizona fantasy baseball conference hosted by Baseball HQ. Say hello from me (full disclosure, I am a staff writer with HQ).

Five Big Hype Prospects

J.T. Ginn, 23, SP, OAK (AA)
AFL: 12 IP, 4 BB, 12 K, 2.25 ERA

A former second-round pick of the New York Mets, the Athletics acquired Ginn in the Chris Bassitt trade. The right-hander is coming off a mixed performance in Double-A where he posted 10.44 K/9, 3.57 BB/9, a 56.6 percent ground ball rate, and a painful 6.11 ERA. Typically, pitchers who keep the ball on the ground while recording strikeouts and limiting walks represent a stable and effective asset class. Ginn’s season was cut short due to injury – hence his inclusion in the AFL. He only pitched 35.1 innings in 10 Double-A starts. Ginn is scheduled to pitch today (Friday) and is currently defending a brief scoreless streak. He appears to have a sufficient repertoire for starting though he might revert to relief if his command proves insufficient. While pitchers are never truly “can’t miss,” I consider Ginn to be a high-probability future Major Leaguer.

Edouard Julien, 23, 2B, MIN (AA)
AFL: 81 PA, 5 HR, 5 SB, .361/.519/.689

Far and away the top-performing hitter in the AFL, Julien appears to have turned a corner in his development. For older prospects like Julien, the fall league is for working on new skills. In his case, doing damage to pitches within the strike zone. He’s already proven to have an exceptional eye with enough contact skills to confidently take early-count strikes. However, to transition to the Majors, he’ll need to jump on those early-count cookies rather than let them pass. According to a contact, this is what he’s focusing on this fall. His 1.208 OPS suggests he’s succeeding. In addition to leading the league in OPS and walks, he’s tied for the lead in runs scored (19) and home runs (5). He’s hit all five of his home runs in the last 15 days.

For those keeping track at home, this is the same adjustment Gunnar Henderson made to launch his meteoric rise this season. That’s not to say Julien is physically comparable to Henderson, only that he has the raw ingredients to leap into the Top 100 prospects via a similar path.

Andy Pages, 21, OF, LAD (AA)
AFL: 83 PA, 4 HR, 1 SB, .286/.373/.486

If Pages has a thing to work on, it’s his strikeout rate. Thus far, he’s managed a lovely 12 percent strikeout rate this fall. He posted a 24.5 percent strikeout rate each of the last two seasons. We’ve covered Pages a few times in this column, and there’s no reason to believe anything has changed in his profile. He has average or better plate discipline, considerable raw power, and a swing geared for frequently pulled, fly ball contact. The batting profile reads similarly to early-career Rhys Hoskins. Pages has more raw power and a less discerning eye than the Phillies first baseman. He’s also far more athletic.

Pages is scheduled to participate in the Fall Stars Home Run Derby.

Zac Veen, 20, OF, COL (AA)
AFL: 85 PA, 1 HR, 16 SB, .353/.471/.456

Veen, who we touched upon during the first week of AFL coverage, remains the stolen base leader roughly one month into the season. Although he hasn’t hit for much power, the rest of his performance is encouraging. He’s recorded 14 walks compared to just six strikeouts. During the regular season, Veen showed plus discipline in High- and Double-A. However, he struggled to make contact, especially at Double-A. His AFL performance helps to put that in context. The 20-year-old was probably overmatched against older competition.

A strong showing in the upper minors next season could yield a 2023 Major League debut. The speedy outfielder is well-built for Coors Field. While we tend to think of the venue as a power haven, it bolsters all types of hitting. Besides, most scouts believe Veen will grow into considerable pop.

Kumar Rocker, 22, SP, TEX (—)
AFL: 7.2 IP, 9 BB, 8 K, 4.70 ERA

A late addition to the AFL roster, this represents Rocker’s first affiliated action. He got off to a rough start, uncorking multiple walks and wild pitches. He’s since settled down over his last two appearances, working 5.2 innings with four hits, one run, two walks, and all eight of his strikeouts. Rocker’s draft history makes for fascinating reading. Throughout his amateur prospectdom, he’s brought different arm slots and pitch mixes. The one unifying detail is a tendency for erratic command. On his best days, he looks like a surefire Major League workhorse. On his worst, he is indistinguishable from the hundreds of live-armed minor leaguers who have yet to (and might never) click on the lightbulb.

Five More

Connor Thomas, STL (24): The current strikeout leader by a healthy margin, Thomas pitched a five-inning, seven-strikeout gem since our last update. The southpaw is Rule 5 eligible and has almost certainly played his way into being selected if the Cardinals do not protect him. They appear to have sufficient roster flexibility to do so.

Evan Reifert, TBR (23): Also since our last update, Reifert has added three more no-hit innings along with seven strikeouts. That puts him at 10.2 no-hit innings on the season with 22 strikeouts. Four walks represent the lone blemish to his stat line. Reifert has the third-most strikeouts in the AFL despite throwing fewer than half the innings of Thomas.

Carlos De La Cruz, PHI (22): A mammoth human of roughly the size and shape of Aaron Judge, De La Cruz is a free-swinging center fielder with considerable power. He’s performed well this fall while still showing dreadful feel for the strike zone. His 24 strikeouts in 59 plate appearances (40.6% K%) rate as one of the worst performances in the AFL. Conversely, his .302/.373/.547 triple-slash with 16 hits, three home runs, and two triples is indicative of his quality of contact when he does connect.

Cal Conley, ATL (23): A switch-hitting future utility man who has only advanced to High-A, Conley is one of the finalists for a spot on the Fall Stars roster. He split the year between Low- and High-A, posting a roughly league-average batting line. In 83 plate appearances this fall, he’s batting .304/.422/.551 with two home runs, three triples, five doubles, and nine steals. Conley has the sixth-highest OPS over the last 15 days.

Mason Miller, OAK (24): Miller is a fireballer, regularly living in the triple-digits with his fastball. Over the last 15 days, he’s made two three-inning starts, holding opponents to just two hits, no walks, and nine strikeouts. Thus far in his professional career, he’s been used as a short-burst starter. He’s expected to eventually transition to the bullpen. His third pitch is a below-average changeup, and he also struggles with command. He fills the strike zone and lets his stuff overwhelm hitters rather than locating it.

Big Hype Prospects: Rojas, Walker, Pages, Lavigne, Kjerstad

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Big Hype Prospects remains focused on the Arizona Fall League. Let’s dig in.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Johan Rojas, 22, OF, PHI (AA)
AFL: 44 PA, 10 SB, .297/.386/.378

Rojas is one of the prospects I’m most closely tracking this fall. He’s Rule 5 eligible this winter, though there’s little chance the Phillies would risk exposing him to the draft. With his elite defense and double-plus speed, at least 20 teams could easily hide him on their roster for a full season. His development could affect how the Phillies approach the free agent and trade markets in the coming winters as they transition away from their long-standing reputation as a poor fielding franchise.

The early results in Arizona are a mixed bag. He does have a solid triple-slash and three doubles, though he’s yet to muscle up for a home run. Only Zac Veen (13) has more stolen bases. Rojas and Veen are also the only players to feature a three-steal game. Rojas did it by nabbing each bag once. You can find a video of his thefts of third and home via Jacob Resnick of MLB.com (scroll down). It sure looked to me (Twitter link) that the pitcher was a tad insulted by the steal of home.

Encouragingly, Rojas has five walks (11.4% BB%) and six strikeouts (13.6% K%) in his 44 plate appearances. The two areas of his game that need the most work are in-game power and plate discipline.

Jordan Walker, 20, 3B, STL (AA)
AFL: 47 PA, 2 HR, 1 SB, .300/.362/.525

Although nobody should be upset with the above stat line, Walker ranks just 25th out of 62 qualified hitters by OPS. Nevertheless, he’s putting on an impressive display on both sides of the ball that has only served to highlight his physical readiness. Like Rojas, Walker’s development has major implications for the Cardinals mid-range plans. It’s long been rumored that Nolan Arenado will not opt out of his contract. Walker, however, is a talented defender who has been measured brushing triple-digit velocities on throws across the diamond. He also features Major League caliber exit velocities – he regularly exceeds 100-mph with his batted balls. All this from a 20-year-old who has all the makings of a franchise cornerstone. If Arenado does remain in St. Louis, they’ll have tough decisions to make soon – perhaps as early as next spring.

Andy Pages, 21, OF, LAD (AA)
AFL: 43 PA, 3 HR, .278/.372/.556

A consistent power-hitting prospect, Pages is coming off a solid showing at Double-A. Barring a change in approach, he’s destined to be a low-average, high-ISO slugger. As a hitter, comparisons to vintage Rhys Hoskins are almost unavoidable (Hoskins adjusted his batted ball profile this season). Pages puts more than half of his batted balls in the air, has plus discipline, and features more than enough raw power to casually blast more than 30 home runs per full season. My home run calculator projects a range of 28 home runs (at a 15% HR/FB ratio) to 47 home runs (25% HR/FB ratio) per 600 plate appearances. Presently, he plays center field, though there are questions about his ability to stick there. Some scouts believe he’ll slow considerably as he ages.

Grant Lavigne, 23, 1B, COL (AA)
AFL: 42 PA, 1 SB, .389/.476/.611

Once considered an interesting prospect with upside, Lavigne has fallen off lists in recent years amidst unimpressive results. This season, he posted a 146 wRC+ as a slightly old High-A player before turning in a 102 wRC+ in Double-A. He’s a first-base-only prospect so his lack of power – 10 home runs in 524 plate appearances – could be a fatal blow to his prospectdom. However, he has excellent plate discipline and a batted-ball approach that could outperform expectations at Coors Field. When I squint, I see him as sort of similar to a more patient and whiff-prone version of Eric Hosmer. Although he’s yet to homer this fall, Lavigne leads the league with six doubles. Lavigne is Rule 5 eligible this winter and might be left exposed.

Heston Kjerstad, 23, OF, BAL (AA)
AFL: 57 PA, 4 HR, .352/.386/.648

Kjerstad leads the league with 19 hits and is tied with Matt Mervis for the home run lead. He also has four doubles. The other hit leaders have taken a slappier approach, featuring minimal extra-base contact. As we profiled last week, Kjerstad lost most of two seasons due to COVID shutdowns and heart inflammation.

In less positive news, his 16 strikeouts are second-worst in the AFL, behind only Rece Hinds. Whiffs figure to remain an unavoidable part of Kjerstad’s game. So long as he’s achieving game power – as he is this fall – he remains a promising but volatile prospect.

Five More

Lawrence Butler, OAK (22): A slow-burn prospect who has hit at every level up through High-A, Butler has the fourth-best OPS in the AFL. A patient slugger who has always struggled with strikeouts, he tallied 10 walks and only seven strikeouts through 42 plate appearances. As a left-handed hitter, he has an easier path to relevance than other players with a similar toolset like Peyton Burdick. Butler should spend 2023 in Double-A. He’s being evaluated for a 40-man roster spot since he’s Rule 5 eligible.

Yasel Antuna, WSH (22): Antuna will turn 23 next Wednesday. A former top international prospect, his development has been slower and less impressive than originally hoped. His plate discipline is his standout trait, and it’s been on full display in Arizona where he has seven walks and one strikeout in 23 plate appearances. There are rumors his discipline is actually passivity. A dose of targeted aggression could unlock better power outcomes.

T.J. Rumfield, NYY (22): Acquired from the Phillies in exchange for Nick Nelson, Rumfield is an intriguing first base prospect who missed considerable development time – both in college and post-draft. When he’s been on the field, he’s demonstrated superb plate discipline. He puts on power displays in batting practice, though this has yet to translate in-game. He currently leads the AFL with a 1.236 OPS in 38 plate appearances.

Austin Martin, MIN (23): Martin is next-best with a 1.168 OPS in 48 plate appearances. It’s a BABIP-driven batting line – only three of his 18 hits have gone for extra bases. An important component of the Jose Berrios trade, Martin has intriguing discipline and contact skills. In his present form, he profiles as a most-days super utility guy. There’s risk higher-level pitchers will overpower him.

Edouard Julien, MIN (23): Another future Twins utility guy, Julien features pristine plate discipline that can verge into passivity at times. His pickiness results in an elevated strikeout rate despite above-average contact skills. He’s also never posted below a 19.3 percent walk rate. For comparison, among qualified Major Leaguers, only Juan Soto (20.3% BB%) exceeded a 16 percent walk rate this season. Julien isn’t on par with Soto, but he does have a well-rounded skill set and… surprise, surprise, he leads the AFL with 13 walks (30.9% BB%) and 10 strikeouts (23.8% K%) in 42 plate appearances.

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