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Brett Martin To Undergo Shoulder Surgery

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Rangers reliever Brett Martin will undergo shoulder surgery, as first reported by Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (Twitter link). A specific timeline will become clearer after the operation but Grant writes he’s likely to miss most of the 2023 campaign.

It’s an unfortunate development for the left-hander, who ended last year on the injured list thanks to a shoulder strain. While it seemed he and the club were hopeful the issue would subside with a non-surgical treatment plan, that won’t wind up being the case. Levi Weaver of the Athletic tweets that Martin’s surgery is scheduled for next week.

The 27-year-old has pitched for Texas in each of the past four seasons. He’s been one of their more trusted southpaws for the past two years, combining for a 3.61 ERA through 112 1/3 innings since the start of the 2021 campaign. He posted a 4.14 mark over 55 appearances last season. Martin only struck out 18.9% of opponents but kept the ball on the ground at a quality 50.7% clip. He held same-handed hitters to a .194/.242/.290 line over 67 plate appearances.

Despite the injury, Martin and the club agreed to a $1.275MM contract for the upcoming season. That buys out his first of three would-be arbitration years, and he remains under club control through the 2025 campaign. Under the new collective bargaining agreement, eligible players who avoid a hearing with an arbitration settlement are entitled to full termination pay if released. In previous years, teams could cut players before Opening Day and only owe a portion of the agreed-upon salary. Texas’ outlay in this case is rather modest but suggests the front office still has faith in Martin to bounce back after his rehab and contribute, either down the stretch or in future seasons.

With Martin likely out for an extended period, Texas is dealt a hit to their lefty relief depth. Brock Burke somewhat quietly posted a 1.97 ERA over 82 1/3 innings as a rookie last season, earning himself a high-leverage role in the process. Former highly-regarded prospect Taylor Hearn has been hit around as a starter but posted a 3.51 ERA while limiting opponents to a .208/.276/.318 line over 41 innings of relief. John King is a similar low-strikeout grounder specialist to Martin and a generally solid matchup option.

The Rangers could consider that trio a strong enough group to handle the workload for new skipper Bruce Bochy, even with Martin injured and Matt Moore hitting free agency. Moore is still unsigned, as are Andrew Chafin and Will Smith. That provides some potential options for GM Chris Young and his front office if they’re interested in further adding to the bullpen.

Brewers, Brandon Woodruff Avoid Arbitration

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The Brewers are in agreement with star hurler Brandon Woodruff on a $10.8MM deal to avoid arbitration, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). They’ll avoid a hearing in the third of four trips through the process for Woodruff, who first qualified as a Super Two player during the 2020-21 offseason.

A former 11th-round pick, Woodruff has broken out as one of the game’s best starters. He’s a two-time All-Star who hasn’t posted an ERA above 3.05 in any of the past three seasons. Woodruff struck out 30.6% of opponents over 27 starts last season, with a three-week absence due to a high ankle sprain the only black mark on his year.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Woodruff for an $11MM salary. His deal comes up in a tick below that but not meaningfully so, and he’s set up well for another raise in 2024. He’ll reach free agency for the first time at the end of the ’24 campaign, when he’d be headed into his age-32 season.

There’s been a fair bit of speculation about the possibility of Milwaukee making Woodruff or ace Corbin Burnes available in trade talks at some point. The Brewers typically run player payrolls a bit lower than average and have shown a general willingness to listen to trade offers on star players in their arbitration seasons. That doesn’t seem to be a consideration this offseason, as Milwaukee has reportedly taken Burnes, Woodruff and Willy Adames off the table in talks this winter.

White Sox, Lucas Giolito Avoid Arbitration

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The White Sox and right-hander Lucas Giolito have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $10.4MM deal, per Robert Murray of FanSided.

Giolito, 28, was a 16th overall pick of the Nationals and highly-touted prospect in his time there. He struggled a bit in his 2016 major league debut, though he was only in his age-21 season. Nonetheless, the Nats flipped him to Chicago as part of the Adam Eaton trade.

He continued to struggle to establish himself at the big league level over the next couple of seasons but broke out in 2019. He made 29 starts that season and posted a 3.41 ERA. He struck out 32.3% of batters faced while walking 8.1% of them. His 5.2 wins above replacement that year, per FanGraphs, placed him in the top 10 of all pitchers. He would go on to post similar results in 2020 and 2021 as the Sox qualified for consecutive trips to the postseason for the first time in franchise history.

2022 was a down season, however, as Giolito’s strikeout rate fell to 25.4%. That was still above league average but a big drop from his previous career work. That pushed his ERA up to 4.90 for the season. That coincided with a disappointing year for the club as well, with both Giolito and the Sox looking to bounce back here in 2023. It will be his final season before he’s slated to reach free agency.

Based on his strong work earlier in his career, Giolito pushed his salary to $4.15MM in 2021, his first time qualifying for arbitration. He pushed that up to $7.45MM last year and now gets to $10.4MM, just shy of the $10.8MM projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Padres Avoid Arbitration With Juan Soto, Josh Hader

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The Padres have avoided arbitration with two stars. San Diego and Juan Soto agreed to a $23MM contract, while they inked Josh Hader to a $14.1MM deal.

Aside from Shohei Ohtani — who agreed to a $30MM deal with the Angels at the end of last season — Soto is the highest-profile player in this year’s arbitration class. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for the highest salary of any arb-eligible player, forecasting him to land at $21.5MM. Soto comes in a bit above that and secures a little more than a $6MM raise on last season’s $17.1MM salary.

Acquired from Washington in one of the biggest deadline trades in MLB history, Soto posted a .236/.388/.390 line through his first 228 plate appearances with the Friars. That was below his usual otherworldly standards but still excellent output thanks to a massive 19.3% walk percentage and just a 14.9% strikeout rate. Including his first-half numbers in Washington, he hit .242/.401/.452 with 27 homers over 664 plate appearances.

The Friars will be able to control Soto for one additional season before he’d hit free agency after the 2024 campaign. He’s on track to reach the open market in advance of his age-26 season and trending towards a potential record-setting deal. San Diego surely has interest in working out a long-term agreement with the Boras Corporation client. Soto declined a 15-year, $440MM extension offer from Washington before being traded, ostensibly setting the floor in any negotiations with the Friars.

Hader landed with the Padres in a massive deadline deal as well. Acquired from the Brewers in a surprising swap, he struggled to a 7.31 ERA through his first 16 innings in San Diego. A spike in walks played a role in those anomalous struggles, though Hader was also plagued by an unsustainably high .372 batting average on balls in play against him. He’d only managed a 4.24 ERA over 34 innings with Milwaukee before the trade but struck out an eye-popping 41.8% of his opponents for the Brew Crew.

The lanky southpaw has an established multi-year track record as one of the sport’s most dominant late-game arms. He owns a career 2.71 ERA with a 43.2% strikeout percentage over 332 1/3 big league innings. Hader has collected 132 saves along the way and been selected to the All-Star Game four times. He’s rewarded with one of the largest arbitration deals of the winter himself, narrowly topping his $13.6MM projection.

With over five years of MLB service, Hader avoids arbitration for the final time. He’s on track to hit free agency next winter, when he’ll be headed into his age-30 season. With a typically dominant showing in 2023, Hader would have a chance at topping the reliever record $102MM free agent contract signed by Edwin Díaz this offseason.

Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the Soto agreement. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the Hader deal.

Phillies, Rhys Hoskins Avoid Arbitration

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The Phillies and first baseman Rhys Hoskins have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $12MM contract for 2023, reports Robert Murray of FanSided.

Hoskins, 30 in March, has spent his entire career with the Phillies so far, having been drafted by them in 2014. He is now on the cusp of free agency, however, as this is his final season of club control. During 2023, he will cross six years of service time and qualify for the open market at season’s end.

Since his debut in 2017, he’s established himself as a reliably above-average hitter. He’s hit at least 27 home runs in each season, outside of 10 in the shortened 2020 campaign and 18 in his 50-game debut in 2017. Apart from that debut, his wRC+ has been between 112 and 139 in each season. He has 148 career homers and a batting line of .242/.353/.492 for a wRC+ of 125. He isn’t considered to be an especially strong defender or baserunner, which was kept his wins above replacement from ever topping 2.4, per FanGraphs, but he’s also never been below 2.0 in a full campaign thanks to his reliable offense.

That potent bat pushed his salary up to $4.8MM in 2021, his first time qualifying for arbitration. He got to $7.7MM last year and now $12MM this year, just below the $12.6MM projection from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. The Phillies finally cracked the postseason last year, breaking a decade-long drought and going all the way to the World Series. They have been aggressive in reloading to try to get back there in 2023, with Hoskins likely to be a key part of that in his final season before he’s set to reach the open market. He and the club could always reach an extension that keeps him in Philly beyond the upcoming campaign, but they also have other first base/designated hitter types, such as Darick Hall, Alec Bohm, Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos.

Cardinals, Jordan Montgomery Avoid Arbitration

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The Cardinals and left-hander Jordan Montgomery have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $10MM salary, reports Robert Murray of FanSided.

Montgomery, 30, was drafted by the Yankees and established himself as a solid major league starter with that club. He debuted in 2017 with 29 starts, a 3.88 ERA, 22.2% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate and 40.7% ground ball rate. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery and the pandemic kept him from pitching logging many innings over the 2018-2020 period and he struggled a bit when he was on the mound.

He got back on track in 2021 with 30 starts and a 3.83 ERA, while his strikeout and grounder rates ticked up a bit compared to his 2017 season. He had another solid campaign in 2022, which included a midseason trade to the Cards. He finished with a 3.48 ERA, only striking out 21.8% of batters faced but cutting his walk rate to 5% and bumping his grounder rate to 47.6%.

Montgomery first qualified for arbitration for the 2021 season, earning a $2.13MM salary followed by $6MM last year. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Montgomery for a $10.1MM salary, with the southpaw now getting within a hair of that in his last season before he’s slated to become a free agent. Montgomery is one of four starters in the St. Louis rotation set to hit the open market after this season, with Jack Flaherty also in his final arbitration year while Adam Wainwright and Miles Mikolas are each in the final seasons of their respective contracts.

Cubs Designate Mark Leiter Jr. For Assignment

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The Cubs announced Friday that right-hander Mark Leiter Jr. has been designated for assignment. His spot on the roster will go to first baseman Eric Hosmer, whose one-year contract is now official.

Leiter, 32 in March, was drafted by the Phillies in 2013 and made his way up to the majors by 2017. He got into 47 games over the 2017 and 2018 seasons, mostly with Philly but also a brief stint with the Blue Jays after a waiver claim. He posted a 5.53 ERA over that two-year stretch with a subpar 20.5% strikeout rate but a strong 48.2% ground ball rate.

He was outrighted off the Jays’ roster and then required Tommy John surgery in the spring of 2019, which put him on the shelf for a while. He pitched well in the minor leagues of the Tigers’ system in 2021 but didn’t get called up to the big leagues. A minor league deal with the Cubs allowed him to return to the majors last season. He spent the year being shuttled to Triple-A and back, posting a solid 3.99 ERA over 67 2/3 innings with the Cubs, striking out 25.9% of batters faced, walking 8.9% of them and getting grounders on 48.9% of balls in play.

Despite those solid results last year, there are reasons the Cubs are moving on. Leiter’s earned runs were likely kept down somewhat by a .251 batting average on balls in play, almost 40 points below league average. He’s also now out of options, giving him less value from a roster maneuverability perspective. However, if some club is intrigued enough to give Leiter a roster spot, he’ll come with some cheap control since he has just over two years of MLB service time.

The Opener: Arbitration Deadline, International Free Agency, Cubs

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With the first significant date on the 2023 MLB calendar upon us, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Today is the deadline for submitting arbitration figures.

Today is the deadline day for both clubs and players to submit figures to MLB for salary arbitration. While players and their clubs can still avoid arbitration after today, many teams have adopted a “file-and-trial” policy in recent years, meaning they do not negotiate further on one-year arb level deals after today’s deadline. It’s likely there will be heaps of deals agreed to throughout the day today, and while these deals likely won’t wildly change any club’s payroll situation, the cost certainty provided could make it easier for teams to work out deals on the trade market going forward. As has been the case for more than a decade, MLBTR published Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections earlier this offseason.

2. International Free Agency To Open

The 2023 signing period for international free agency is set to begin on Sunday, January 15th. This period, which has been moved to January in recent seasons after years of July signing periods, gives all 30 clubs the opportunity to inject their farm systems with fresh talent. While these players are all almost assuredly several years away from impacting the major leagues, many of the biggest superstars of today’s game were acquired by their clubs through the IFA signing process. Most top prospects in a given IFA class likely unofficially made handshake agreements with clubs long before the official opening of their IFA signing period, so most of these top prospects already have publicly available expected landing spots. MLB and the MLBPA tried to come to an agreement on an international draft this summer following CBA negotiations but were unable to do so, leaving the current system in place for the foreseeable future.

3. Cubs Convention is returning this weekend.

Cubs Convention starts tonight, marking its return after two years of pandemic- and lockout-related absence. Perhaps most interestingly, the Ricketts family (who own the team) is set to make an appearance and interact with fans tomorrow. Tom Ricketts drew plenty of flak for canceling his annual Cubs Convention Q&A with fans in 2019 amid the what was then the team’s quietest offseason in years. He was booed in 2020 when citing the luxury tax as a reason for the team’s lack of spending. Since then, Cubs fans have seen the departure of their entire 2016 World Series core (aside from Kyle Hendricks), and the team has suffered back-to-back losing seasons. The signing of Dansby Swanson could perhaps bring about some good will this time around, but he’ll surely still face some tough questions and perhaps produce some notable quotes on the team’s outlook moving forward.

Marlins, Twins Have Discussed Trade Possibilities Involving Pablo Lopez, Max Kepler

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The Marlins and Twins have discussed trade scenarios involving Miami starter Pablo López, writes Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman reports that Minnesota outfielder Max Kepler and infielder Luis Arraez were among the names who’d come up in those discussions but adds the Twins aren’t interested in parting with Arraez.

Minnesota’s interest in López isn’t a new development. Ted Schwerzler of Twins Daily first reported in mid-December the Twins were in touch with the Fish about López. Obviously, nothing has yet come together and Heyman’s report doesn’t suggest there’s anything particularly close between the two clubs.

López, 27 in March, has been a frequent target in trade rumors for well over a year. The right-hander has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the last three seasons. He hasn’t walked more than 7.5% of batters faced in any of those campaigns and has posted at least a 23.6% strikeout rate in all three seasons. López sits in the 93-94 MPH range with his fastball and owns one of the game’s better changeups. He misses bats and keeps the ball on the ground at an above-average clip and generally manages solid results against right and left-handed hitters alike.

That kind of consistent mid-rotation production has piqued the interest of a number of contenders but Miami has held onto López so far. That’s in spite of a reported willingness to deal from their stable of quality starting pitchers to address a lackluster lineup. While the Venezuelan-born righty has been the most frequently mentioned trade candidate in the Miami rotation, the Fish are reportedly open to offers on any of Trevor Rogers, Edward Cabrera and Jesús Luzardo as well.

That latter trio of pitchers all come with longer windows of club control and high-octane stuff. None has the consistent multi-year track record López has established, though, making him an ideal fit for a team firmly in win-now mode and looking to upgrade its starting five. López is in his second season of arbitration eligibility. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $5.6MM salary next season; he’ll earn a raise on that during his final trip through the process before reaching free agency for the first time after 2024.

The Twins don’t strictly need a starter, though there’s enough uncertainty in their group they could accommodate another acquisition. That’s particularly true for a pitcher of López’s caliber, as he’d arguably step in as their best arm on staff. Minnesota is set to open the 2023 season with a top five of Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray, Bailey Ober and Kenta Maeda. That group was hit hard by injuries last year, with Ryan leading the way at 147 innings. Mahle, Gray and Ober each had multiple injured list stints, including a two and a half month absence for Ober thanks to a groin strain. Maeda missed the whole season recovering from September 2021 Tommy John surgery.

There’s a decent amount of upside. Young arms like Simeon Woods Richardson, Louie Varland and Josh Winder have potential as depth options and Chris Paddack could return in the season’s second half from last May’s Tommy John procedure. Yet it’s equally easy to see the risk associated with the group considering their collective injury histories. Bringing in another quality starter would be a nice boost to a Minnesota club looking to build off their surprising new agreement with Carlos Correa and could push one or two of the touted young arms into a bullpen that seems the roster’s biggest question mark.

Minnesota has plenty of high-level outfield depth from which they could deal to bolster the pitching. They’re particularly deep in left-handed hitters, with Kepler, Nick Gordon, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner all factoring into the mix around star center fielder Byron Buxton. Kepler is the only member of the group who isn’t still in his pre-arbitration seasons. That has made him the most frequently speculated upon trade candidate but also arguably the least desirable target of the group for other clubs.

Like López, Kepler comes with two remaining seasons of club control. He’ll make $8.5MM this year and is guaranteed at least a $1MM buyout on a $10MM club option for 2024. He turns 30 in February and is headed into his ninth big league season.

Kepler looked to have broken out in 2019, when he connected on 36 home runs and posted a .252/.336/.519 line through 596 trips to the plate. He’s always had quality contact skills and plate discipline, and the seeming power spike elevated his offensive profile enough he secured some down-ballot MVP votes that year. In retrospect, that season seems an anomaly at least partially attributable to the extremely lively ball the league used. Kepler has been fine but unspectacular in the three years since then, hitting .220/.314/.392 in over 1100 plate appearances.

That includes a .227/.318/.348 line with just nine homers last season. His walk and strikeout rates remained excellent but he posted the worst power numbers of his career. Kepler also consistently runs very low batting averages on balls in play. That’s in part thanks to a pull-happy, grounder-heavy offensive profile that has made him susceptible to overshifts. The forthcoming limitations on defensive positioning could lead to a few more base knocks but isn’t likely to help him rediscover his power stroke.

Even with middling offense, Kepler is a valuable player. He’s an elite defensive right fielder who has also held his own in more than 1100 career innings in center field. Buxton, arguably the sport’s best defensive outfielder when healthy, relegates Kepler to the corner in Minnesota. Yet he’d be a viable candidate for everyday center field work on another club. That’s the case for Miami, where younger players like JJ Bleday, Bryan De La Cruz and Jesús Sánchez rotated through center field work in 2022. Each of them is better suited for a corner and has a limited offensive track record at the MLB level. Miami hasn’t addressed center field this winter, currently leaving that trio as an imperfect solution to take up-the-middle reps alongside Avisaíl García and perhaps Jorge Soler in the corners.

Kepler is a sensible trade target for the Marlins, particularly given their reported preference for higher-contact bats. It’s clear, however, that he alone wouldn’t convince general manager Kim Ng and her staff to part with López. An upper mid-rotation starter is going to hold more appeal than an outfielder coming off three roughly average offensive seasons, even one as defensively gifted as Kepler. That’s true even before considering López is a few years younger and will make a bit less over the next two seasons than Kepler will. Including Kepler in a deal involving López could make sense for both sides, but the Twins would have to offer additional young talent to convince Miami to pull the trigger.

Arraez, however, is apparently a bridge too far for Minnesota’s liking. The reigning AL batting champion would certainly fit Miami’s desire for a high-contact hitter and he’s coming off a .316/.375/.420 line over 603 trips to the plate. He’s controllable for three more seasons and projected for a $5MM arbitration salary. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reported last month the Twins had given some consideration to making Arraez available in a deal that brought back a “top-tier starting pitcher” who was controllable beyond next season.

One could argue whether López fits that description, but it doesn’t seem the Twins feel he’s at the level that’d inspire them to part with one of their best hitters. Arraez is presently penciled in as Minnesota’s primary first baseman, though he’ll also work as a designated hitter and spell Jorge Polanco and José Miranda at second and third base, respectively.

Zaidi: Giants Unlikely To Add Catcher On Major League Deal

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Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi met with reporters Thursday afternoon. Among the topics discussed was the team’s catching situation, which doesn’t seem to be a top priority for the front office.

San Francisco designated backup Austin Wynns for assignment last week, leaving them with just Joey Bart and Rule 5 draftee Blake Sabol as catchers on the 40-man roster. Despite that rather thin depth chart, Zaidi indicated the club is not likely to add a catcher on a major league free agent deal (relayed by Evan Webeck of the San Jose Mercury News). The Giants’ baseball operations leader implied that Wynns has already gone unclaimed on waivers, though he’ll have the right to elect minor league free agency as a player who has previously been outrighted in his career.

Zaidi indicated the team was hopeful of bringing Wynns back to the organization on a minor league pact, though the 32-year-old will have the chance to explore other opportunities. Even if Wynns returns, San Francisco could bring in another non-roster invitee to major league camp.

It seems they’re content heading into exhibition play with just Bart and Sabol on the 40-man roster. That’d suggest the 26-year-old Bart has a firm hold on the #1 job after hitting .215/.296/.364 through 291 plate appearances last season. The former second overall pick connected on 11 home runs but punched out in nearly 39% of his trips to the dish.

That’s also a strong vote of confidence for Sabol, who has no big league experience. The 25-year-old had spent four years in the Pirates’ system after being selected in the 7th round of the 2019 draft. The left-handed hitter split last year between Pittsburgh’s top two affiliates, putting up an impressive .284/.363/.497 line across 513 combined plate appearances. That wasn’t enough for the Bucs to add him to their 40-man roster despite a very thin catching situation of their own. It obviously impressed San Francisco brass, though, as the Giants orchestrated a trade with the Reds to acquire Sabol’s Rule 5 rights.

Cincinnati, who had the fourth pick in the Rule 5 draft, selected Sabol. They immediately dealt him to the Giants, who sent back minor league pitcher Jake Wong. San Francisco has to keep the USC product on their major league roster or injured list all season or place him on waivers and offer him back to Pittsburgh if he goes unclaimed. Wynns’ designation and a lack of urgency to add another big league catcher suggests the front office is confident in Sabol’s ability to hold his own at the big league level.

There are a few remaining free agent catchers who could sign minor league deals. Kevin Plawecki, Robinson Chirinos, Jorge Alfaro, Tres Barrera and Luis Torrens are candidates for a non-roster pact. Reports this week tied San Francisco to Gary Sánchez, but that seems unlikely unless the Giants pivot to make a big league commitment. As the top remaining free agent backstop, Sánchez figures to secure a guaranteed deal somewhere.

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