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Hanshin Tigers Close To Signing Jeremy Beasley and Sheldon Neuse

By Simon Hampton | November 19, 2022 at 5:57pm CDT

The Hanshin Tigers of the Nippon Professional League are close to signing former MLB players Jeremy Beasley and Sheldon Neuse, as well as former big league prospects Brian Keller and Johan Mieses, according to Yahoo Japan.  Meanwhile, the Tigers have renewed former Tiger, Angel and Pirate Kyle Keller’s contract for around $1.5MM, and the deal contains an additional $300K in possible incentives.

Beasley, 27 tomorrow, was recently released by the Pirates, but last pitched in the majors for the Blue Jays. He had a 4.80 ERA in nine relief appearances spanning 15 innings, and owns a career 5.84 ERA across 24 2/3 innings for the Blue Jays and Diamondbacks in the past three seasons. He’s shown the ability to punch out major league hitters, striking out batters at a 29% clip, although that comes with a 12.3% walk rate.

Neuse was a second round pick for the Nationals back in 2016, but made his way to Oakland in the Sean Doolittle deal a year later. Across three seasons with the Athletics and Dodgers, Neuse owns a .212/.262/.296 batting line with seven home runs in 420 plate appearances. He’s primarily spent time at second and third base, but has also logged time at first base, shortstop and both corner outfield positions.

Brian Keller was drafted in the 39th round of the 2016 draft by the Yankees, and made it as high as Triple-A with them. He was claimed off waivers ahead of the past season by the Red Sox, and spent the last year at their Triple-A affiliate. There, Keller pitched 113 innings of 3.27 ERA ball, making 20 starts and 11 relief appearances. He struck out a little over a quarter of the batters he faced, but walked batters just over ten percent of the time.

Mieses, 27, has bounced around the minor leagues a bit, spending time with the Dodgers and Cardinals before joining the Red Sox in 2021. The outfielder spent the past year at Triple-A, slashing an impressive .271/.387/.537 with 12 home runs across 60 games. All of those appearances came in right field or as the DH, although he has appeared at the other two outfield spots in previous seasons.

Kyle Keller, 29, spent the past season with Hanshin after being released by the Pirates at the end of the 2021 season. He turned in a 2.72 ERA in 49 2/3 innings with 64 strikeouts and just 12 walks. He struggled during his time in the big leagues, pitching to a 5.83 ERA across 46 1/3 innings for the Marlins, Angels and Pirates, but he seems to have found success in Japan so it’s not surprising to see him stick around for another season.

Note: A prior version of this post incorrectly stated Keller’s salary as approximately $1.3MM. MLBTR regrets the error.

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Nippon Professional Baseball Hanshin Tigers Jeremy Beasley Kyle Keller Sheldon Neuse

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Rays, Royals Linked With Dominic Smith

By Simon Hampton | November 19, 2022 at 4:28pm CDT

The Rays and Royals “could have interest”in free agent slugger Dominic Smith, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post. Smith was recently non-tendered by the Mets after a disappointing campaign in 2022.

Two years ago such a move would have been unfathomable after Smith slashed .316/.377/.616 with ten home runs in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, earning down-ballot NL MVP votes for his efforts. However, it’s been a tough slide for the 27-year-old who’s been worth a combined -1.1 fWAR in the two seasons since.

The beginning of that slide came last year, when Smith played through a partially torn labrum in his shoulder and hit just .244/.304/.363 with 11 home runs. His struggles continued into 2022 as he battled for regular playing time, he ended up splitting time between Triple-A and the big leagues. With the Mets, he’d finish up hitting .194/.276/.286 without a single home run, good for a wRC+ of just 67. He went a lot better at Triple-A, slashing .284/.367/.472 with ten home runs in 54 games.

The Mets’ decision to non-tender him drew to a close and underwhelming time in Queens for a player who was drafted 11th overall in 2013 and regularly featured on top-100 prospect lists. His combined 150 wRC+ over the 2019 and 2020 campaigns showed Smith had the talent to excel at the highest level, but emergence of Pete Alonso blocked Smith at first base and he had to spend a fair bit of time in the outfield, where he graded out poorly.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz pegged Smith for a $4MM salary in arbitration, so given his age, talent and low-cost it’s not surprising to see a couple of smaller market teams linked to him. The severe drop in power since his shoulder problems is a big concern, but he had a strong line at Triple-A and it’s possible he’d benefit from the regular playing time he often found hard to come by in New York.

For the Rays, the need at first base is obvious after they traded Ji-Man Choi to the Pirates early in the off-season. Smith could take over as Tampa Bay’s everyday first baseman, while filling in in the outfield and at designated hitter when needed.

It’s less obvious in Kansas City, where the emergence of rookie Vinnie Pasquantino at first base makes the addition of another left handed slugger less important. Of course, the Royals don’t currently have a clear DH option, and Smith could well spend time there while spelling Pasquantino at first base from time-to-time, but they do also have left handed hitter Ryan O’Hearn, and Salvador Perez will likely spend time at the DH spot moving forward, so there’s not a clear need for a hitter like Smith.

There’s no guarantee Smith would perform like a starter for either team, even if they’re willing to offer him regular playing time. However, there’s plenty of upside for the acquiring team, which would also control him via arbitration for the 2024 season, while the likely insignificant financial cost would make parting ways a bit more palatable if Smith were to continue his struggles to begin the season.

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Kansas City Royals Tampa Bay Rays Dominic Smith

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Offseason Chat Transcript: Los Angeles Dodgers

By Mark Polishuk | November 19, 2022 at 2:42pm CDT

In conjunction with our recent Offseason Outlook post about the Dodgers’ winter plans, we held a live chat devoted to all things Dodger Blue.  Click here to read the transcript.

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Los Angeles Dodgers MLBTR Chats

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Latest On Red Sox Pitching Targets

By Mark Polishuk | November 19, 2022 at 12:27pm CDT

The Red Sox have already been linked to multiple free agent pitchers, with such names as Kodai Senga, Andrew Heaney, Seth Lugo, and Tyler Anderson (since signed by the Angels), all reported as names on Boston’s radar, and the Sox also have interest in re-signing two of their own free agents in Nathan Eovaldi and Rich Hill.

Corey Kluber is also on this list, as the right-hander tells Alex Speier of the Boston Globe that he had again had some talks with Boston this winter.  After previously negotiating with the Red Sox in each of the right-hander’s previous two trips to the free agent market, Kluber ended up signing with the Yankees for the 2021 season and then with the Rays in 2022.  Kluber posted a 4.34 ERA and a league-best 1.2 BB/9 over 164 innings with Tampa Bay, and pitching in Boston would have some extra appeal since Kluber and his family live in Winchester, Massachusetts.

While the Red Sox are actively seeking out more arms, Speier writes that it doesn’t appear the team is aiming for the very top of the pitching market.  This means that Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodon, and Chris Bassitt are unlikely to be landing in Boston, for a variety of reasons.  In the view of most pundits (including MLB Trade Rumors’ own top 50 free agent list), these are the four established Major League starters likely to score the biggest contracts on the open market this winter, and it seems as though the Red Sox aren’t eager to make quite such a big commitment to a single player.  “The Sox are more likely to spread spending across several targets,” Speier writes, so hypothetically, Boston could sign the likes of Heaney and Eovaldi for less than it would cost to sign Verlander alone just in 2023 salary.

Senga could be something of an exception, as the Japanese ace is drawing enough widespread interest that it now looks like he could land one of the bigger contracts of any pitcher this offseason.  MLBTR projects Senga for five years and $75MM, and while the Red Sox have interest, it is possible the bidding could get beyond their comfort zone.

The qualifying offer is also a factor, as deGrom, Rodon, and Bassitt all rejected the QO and thus have draft compensation attached to their services.  Since the Red Sox surpassed the luxury tax threshold in 2022, they’d face a higher penalty ($1MM in international bonus money, and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2023 draft) for signing a qualifying free agent.  Since Eovaldi and Xander Bogaerts also rejected qualifying offers, the Red Sox could net two compensatory picks back if those player signed elsewhere, yet those picks would only fall after the fourth round as further penalty for exceeding the luxury tax.  In short, the draft-related tradeoff probably means that the Sox would prefer to not sign a QO free agent, all things considered.

This strategy might not hold much appeal to Boston fans, who haven’t been pleased about the big-market team’s approach to spending in recent years.  The Red Sox haven’t had much progress in trying to lock up Bogaerts or Rafael Devers to new contracts, and the team’s desire to reset their tax bill in 2020 was one of the factors behind trading Mookie Betts to the Dodgers.  However, the Sox were willing to go over the tax line this past season, despite only a longshot chance at a playoff berth at the trade deadline.  The Red Sox ended up with a disappointing 78-84 record and now an extra tax burden to boot, in the form of the QO-related penalties.

That said, it was just two offseasons ago that chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom also used the “spread out the spending” strategy to bolster the roster that ended up making the 2021 ALCS.  And, back in the 2012-13 offseason, the Red Sox famously made a number of lower-level acquisitions that all paid off in the best possible fashion, as Boston captured the 2013 World Series.  So there is certainly recent evidence that a more measured approach to the offseason can work out swimmingly, and of course, there is still plenty of quality pitching available even in the second or third tiers of the open market, not to mention what else might emerge in trade talks.

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Boston Red Sox Corey Kluber

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Offseason Chat Transcript: Atlanta Braves

By Anthony Franco | November 19, 2022 at 10:56am CDT

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a Braves-specific chat regarding the team’s offseason outlook. Click here to view the transcript.

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Atlanta Braves MLBTR Chats

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Padres Have Jose Abreu As “A Top Priority”

By Mark Polishuk | November 19, 2022 at 10:46am CDT

The Padres have been in contact with Jose Abreu and his representatives, and San Diego consider Abreu to be “a top priority” this offseason, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network (via Twitter).  With Josh Bell, Wil Myers, and Brandon Drury all now free agents, the Padres have a vacancy at first base, making Abreu a logical target for the win-now team.

It has already been an active offseason for San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller, as the Padres have make early strikes to re-sign both Nick Martinez and Robert Suarez.  More work on the pitching staff is still likely to come, yet the Padres could also surely use at least one more bat to bolster a lineup that was generally middle-of-the-pack leaguewide.  Getting Fernando Tatis Jr. back from suspension will help in that regard, and his return could push Jake Cronenworth towards first base.  However, signing Abreu would reinforce the first base/DH spots and give the Padres more flexibility in deciding how they want to deploy Tatis, Cronenworth, and Ha-Seong Kim in the middle infield or perhaps elsewhere (i.e. Cronenworth at first base, or Tatis in the outfield).

The Padres have passed the luxury tax threshold in each of the last two seasons, and the new contracts for Martinez and Suarez have put the team’s projected 2023 tax number at roughly $229.2MM — just shy of the $233MM threshold.  With a lot of winter shopping remaining, Preller could reduce this tax bill with some trades, yet it would certainly appear as though ownership doesn’t mind continued spending in search of the franchise’s first World Series title.

With the payroll in mind, Abreu is a particularly interesting target as a player who couldn’t require too lengthy a financial commitment.  Abreu is entering his age-36 season, and while he has continued to be a productive hitter, his age and a power dropoff in 2022 will likely limit him to perhaps two years at most on the open market.  MLBTR projects a two-year, $40MM deal for the former AL MVP, which would again put the Padres in tax territory but the club has a lot of money coming off the books after the 2023 season.

As a luxury tax payor, San Diego faces an increased penalty if it signs a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer.  To this end, Abreu carries extra value for the Padres since he wasn’t eligible for a QO, having already been issued an offer when he was last a free agent following the 2019 season.  Abreu ended up accepting that qualifying offer from the White Sox, and then a few weeks later signed a longer extension keeping him in Chicago through the 2022 campaign.

Ultimately working out as a three-year, $50MM commitment, that deal worked out well for both Abreu and the Sox, as the first baseman continued to hit into his mid-30’s.  Highlighted by his MVP showing in the shortened 2020 season, Abreu hit .289/.366/.489 with 64 homers over an even 1600 PA from 2020-22, helping Chicago reach the postseason in two of those years.  However, with young slugger Andrew Vaughn now vying for first base time and the Sox being overloaded with players in need of DH time, it appears as though the White Sox won’t be pursuing another deal with Abreu.

It sets the stage for Abreu to move on from the only Major League organization he has ever known.  After defecting from Cuba, Abreu signed a six-year, $68MM deal with the White Sox in October 2013, with Chicago outbidding several other teams.  One of the other interested teams was the Rangers, when Preller was working in the Texas front office.

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San Diego Padres Jose Abreu

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Mariners Interested In Gleyber Torres

By Mark Polishuk | November 19, 2022 at 9:55am CDT

The Mariners have interest in Yankees second baseman Gleyber Torres, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports.  It isn’t known if the two sides are particularly close on any sort of trade, though Sherman theorizes that the M’s could potentially offer the Yankee some bullpen help in return — akin to Seattle’s deal for Teoscar Hernandez earlier this week.

Second base is an area of need for the Mariners, and Milwaukee’s Kolten Wong is another name reportedly on Seattle’s trade radar.  Acquiring a second baseman would allow the Mariners to keep J.P. Crawford at shortstop, which president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has said is the team’s preferred scenario for 2023 and beyond.  This even extends to this winter’s shortstop market, as Dipoto is hopeful of finding a top-tier shortstop who could be willing to move to the other middle infield position to accommodate Crawford.  Trading for a player like Torres would allow the M’s to sidestep the free agent shortstop market altogether, and perhaps save some payroll space to address other needs.

Torres is a former shortstop himself, as the Yankees’ ill-fated attempt to use Torres as the everyday shortstop resulted in some lackluster defensive numbers.  A greatly improved team defense was a big part of New York’s success in 2022, and Torres was part of that effort at second base, in the eyes of the Defensive Runs Saved (+9) and UZR/150 (+4.8) metrics.  The Outs Above Average metric wasn’t as kind with only a -1 rating, yet there is certainly no doubt Torres has more defensive value at the keystone than at shortstop.

How Torres’ glovework might translate to the 2023 season is an open question, given the incoming rules limiting defensive shifts.  Still, the Mariners have confidence in Crawford’s ability as an elite (when healthy) defensive shortstop, and he could potentially make up for some or any struggles Torres might have under the new rules.  It could be that Seattle also thinks Torres’ bat can make up for any shortcomings in the field.

Torres hit .257/.310/.451 with 24 home runs over 572 plate appearances last season, resulting in a 115 wRC+.  It was a solid bounce-back from Torres’ 94 wRC+ in 2021, as there was some thought that the defensive change would also help Torre get more focused at the plate.  Torres hit for a lot more power and made much more hard contact in 2022 than in 2021, though his strikeout and walk rates actually decreased to below-average numbers from the previous season.  That said, there has always been some variance in Torres’ K% and BB% rates, even dating back to his best seasons (2018 and 2019), whereas 2022 marked the first time Torres’ hard-hit ball percentage topped the league average.

On the financial side, Torres is arbitration-controlled through the 2024 season, and is projected to earn $9.8MM this winter in his third trip through the arb process.  As a Super Two player, Torres has four years of arbitration eligibility instead of the usual three, and his projected 2023 salary represents another notable raise from his $6.25MM figure in 2022.  While the Yankees are one of baseball’s biggest spenders, that doesn’t mean they’re necessarily willing to keep meeting this escalating cost, especially if they have any doubts that Torres’ production will continue to merit this price tag.

As well, New York has some intriguing cheaper options coming up from the farm system.  Oswaldo Cabrera and Oswald Peraza each made their MLB debuts last season, and star prospect Anthony Volpe is expected to get his first taste of the majors in 2023.  Sherman writes that “the Yankees let executives at the GM meetings know they were open for business with their middle infielders,” meaning that both Torres and Isiah Kiner-Falefa could be dangled in order to both upgrade at other positions and to create some lineup space for the youngsters.  The Yankees avoided arbitration with Kiner-Falefa yesterday, agreeing to a one-year, $6MM deal for the 2023 campaign.

There is enough turnover potential that Sherman “would be shocked if at least one [of Torres or Kiner-Falefa] was not moved” before Opening Day.  Other than the newly re-signed Anthony Rizzo at first base, there’s a lot of potential flux around New York’s infield, given that DJ LeMahieu is still figuring out the best course of action to treat the toe injuries that hampered him last season.  If surgery does become necessary for LeMahieu, that might make the Yankees less open to moving a proven contributor like Torres.  The Yankees seem ready to open up the third base position by moving Josh Donaldson, yet the combination of Donaldson’s offensive decline, his poor clubhouse reputation, and his big contract (at least $29MM remaining through 2023) might mean the Yankees could just end up releasing Donaldson if they just want to on move on from the former AL MVP.

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New York Yankees Seattle Mariners Gleyber Torres

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Giants Interested In Kenley Jansen

By Mark Polishuk | November 19, 2022 at 8:33am CDT

Kenley Jansen has drawn interest from the Giants, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (Twitter link).  The veteran reliever is a free agent for the second straight winter, after signing a one-year, $16MM deal with the Braves last offseason.

There is plenty of familiarity between Jansen and the Giants, and not only because San Francisco spent 12 seasons in direct competition with the closer back when Jansen pitched with the Dodgers.  As Morosi notes, both Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and manager Gabe Kapler were also working for Los Angeles back when Jansen wore the Dodger Blue.

The Giants have been active in retooling a bullpen that was pretty uninspiring in 2022, as the team has already parted ways with Dominic Leone, Jarlin Garcia, Zack Littell, Alex Young, and Mauricio Llovera.  Signing Jansen would be a bold way of upgrading the relief mix, as Kapler could alternate between Jansen and incumbent closer Camilo Doval for save situations.  The Giants have preferred a little ninth-inning flexibility during Kapler’s three years as manager, though Jake McGee received the bulk of save opportunities in 2021 and Doval the majority of chances in 2022.  McGee’s early-season struggles and eventual release paved the way for Doval to become more or less the full-time closer this past season, and the Giants might prefer to return Doval to a high-leverage role behind an established closer.

Jansen is entering his age-36 season, but continued to pitch well in recording an NL-best 41 saves with Atlanta last season.  The right-hander had a 3.38 ERA and his usual set of excellent strikeout, hard-hit ball, and fastball spin rates, though there were a few question marks.  Jansen’s barrel rate was below-average for the first time since 2018, and for the third straight season, he had a subpar walk rate.  On the plus side, Jansen’s 8.5% walk rate at least represented an improvement from an ugly 12.9% mark in 2021 that sat near the bottom of the league.

Between that walk rate, Jansen’s age, and perhaps just the limited timeframe of the lockout-shortened offseason, Jansen could only find a one-year contract last winter.  However, his strong performance with the Braves has MLBTR projecting him for a two-year, $26MM contract this winter.

Any number of teams with more glaring needs at closer than San Francisco could be more willing to bid on Jansen’s services, yet it is quite possible he would have interest in a return to the NL West and a reunion with Zaidi and Kapler.  The Giants are also planning to return to contention, and while splurging on a reliever isn’t usually Zaidi’s preferred strategy, the team has plenty of available payroll space and is expected to be quite aggressive in the free agent market.

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San Francisco Giants Kenley Jansen

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Minor MLB Transactions: 11/19/22

By Mark Polishuk | November 19, 2022 at 7:41am CDT

Catching up on some minor league moves from around the sport…

  • The Red Sox outrighted catcher/infielder Caleb Hamilton to Triple-A, MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo reports (Twitter link).  Boston claimed Hamilton off waivers from the Twins last month, and designated him for assignment earlier this week.  A 23rd-round pick for the Twins in the 2016 draft, Hamilton has spent his entire pro career with Minnesota, culminating in 22 games at the Major League level last season (Hamilton had one hit in his first 23 big league plate appearances).  Hamilton didn’t begin catching until after starting his pro career, and he has played several other positions before mostly settling in at catcher and the two corner infield spots over the last few seasons.
  • The Reds signed right-hander Ben Lively to a minor league deal, with an invite to their Major League spring camp.  Lively posted a 4.80 ERA over 120 innings with the Phillies and Royals from 2017-19, pitched with the KBO League’s Samsung Lions in 2020-21, and then returned to North American baseball on another minors deal with the Reds last winter.  Though he missed over two months due to a flexor strain, Lively posted a 4.09 ERA over 77 innings with Triple-A Louisville in 2022.  He’ll return to the organization in at least a depth role, and might have a shot at winning a spot in Cincinnati’s rotation in Spring Training.
  • The Nationals announced that utilityman Erick Mejia has been signed to a minor league contract, with an invite to Washington’s big league Spring Training camp.  Mejia is a veteran of 17 MLB games, all with the Royals in 2019-20 — his last two seasons were spent at the Triple-A level, with the Royals’ affiliate in 2021 and then with the Mariners’ top affiliate in 2022 after signing a minors deal last winter.  The 28-year-old has a modest .270/.336/.390 slash line over 3493 career PA in the minor leagues, but Mejia will provide the Nats with depth all over the diamond.  With most of his experience coming at the middle infield positions, Mejia has lined up at every position except pitcher and catcher over his 11 pro seasons.
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Boston Red Sox Cincinnati Reds Transactions Washington Nationals Ben Lively Caleb Hamilton Erick Mejia

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Dodgers Non-Tender Cody Bellinger

By Anthony Franco | November 18, 2022 at 10:58pm CDT

The Dodgers will not tender a contract to Cody Bellinger for his final year of arbitration eligibility, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected the 2019 NL MVP for a salary around $18.1MM. Bellinger will be a free agent once the team officially announces the decision.

It’s not a surprising move at this point, but it’s one nobody would’ve foreseen when Bellinger was collecting his MVP trophy three years ago. He blasted 47 home runs that season and posted an overall .305/.406/.629 line across 661 plate appearances. The left-handed hitter looked to have cemented himself as one of the sport’s preeminent sluggers, and he carried a career .278/.368/.559 mark in over 1800 plate appearances heading into 2020. At age 24, Bellinger seemed a budding superstar.

Unfortunately, things have gone south over the past few seasons. He stumbled a bit during the abbreviated 2020 campaign, putting up a .239/.333/.455 line in 56 games. That was still above-average production but a notable step back from the numbers of his first few seasons. A putrid .245 batting average on balls in play seemed to be a major cause of that, and one could certainly point to the anomalous circumstances that year in anticipating a bounceback.

That’s not how things have played out, seemingly in part due to an ill-advised celebration that postseason. Bellinger dislocated his right shoulder celebrating a crucial home run in Game 7 of the 2020 NLCS. While he played out the postseason, he underwent surgery in mid-November. Bellinger was healthy enough to open the 2021 campaign on the roster, but he battled a series of unrelated leg and rib issues. In between, his slash line plummeted to a meager .165/.240/.302 in 95 games.

L.A. brought him back last winter, avoiding arbitration on a $17MM salary. Their hoped-for bounceback season didn’t really materialize, though. Bellinger’s 2022 numbers were improved from the prior year but nowhere near those of previous seasons. In 550 trips to the plate, he put up a .210/.265/.389 mark. That brings him to exactly 900 plate appearances over the past two years, in which he’s hit .193/.256/.355. His on-base percentage is lowest among the 151 hitters with 900+ trips to the dish, while his batting average bests only that of Joey Gallo. He’s sixth from the bottom in slugging.

Bellinger’s batted ball metrics and power output have taken a step back, which could indicate he’s never quite regained the explosiveness in his swing after the shoulder surgery. Yet he’s also seen a marked uptick in strikeouts, fanning 27.1% of the time after cutting his strikeout rate below 18% in 2019-20. His walk percentage fell to a below-average 7.7%, and manager Dave Roberts has increasingly dropped him further in the batting order.

With two full seasons of huge offensive struggles under his belt, the Dodgers have elected to move on rather than pay the two-time All-Star in the neighborhood of $18MM. That always looked to be more than even the high-spending franchise would be willing to pay, and it stands to reason no other club was willing to offer that kind of salary either. The Dodgers have presumably spent the past few weeks gauging the trade market for Bellinger, and that he’ll be cut loose for no return indicates there wasn’t much interest at that price point.

That said, there’s no question he’ll be of interest to teams as a bounceback target at a lower cost. Bellinger, to his credit, hasn’t allowed his offensive struggles to affect his work in the field. He’s an elite runner who has moved full-time to center field after coming up as a first baseman and corner outfielder. Defensive Runs Saved has rated him as a roughly average center fielder the last two years, but Ultimate Zone Rating and Statcast have pegged him above par. Statcast has been most bullish, rating him as seven runs above average in just under 1900 innings of center field work since the start of the 2021 campaign.

Slightly above-average center field defense and plus baserunning gives Bellinger a decent floor even if he’s not hitting well, although he’s obviously quite a bit more of an upside play than a traditional glove-only outfielder. He’ll look for a complete reset offensively but heading into his age-27 campaign, he could certainly still rediscover some of his old form at the plate.

Non-tendered players aren’t subject to waivers, so Bellinger will be a free agent. He and his representatives at the Boras Corporation will have the opportunity to gauge interest from other teams, and they’ll benefit from a lack of supply in center field. Excepting Aaron Judge, former Met Brandon Nimmo is the top center fielder available in free agency. Bellinger arguably becomes the next-best option in a class that also includes Kevin Kiermaier, Adam Duvall and Jackie Bradley Jr.

The Mets, Blue Jays, Marlins, Rangers, Rays, Rockies, Astros, Padres and Giants (a team run by former L.A. executive Farhan Zaidi) could all look externally for center help. They’re speculative fits for Bellinger, and the Dodgers themselves could remain in contact about a reunion at a lower price point.

Los Angeles could give Mookie Betts, Chris Taylor or Trayce Thompson increased center field run, but it stands to reason they’ll also scour the market for help outside the organization. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (on Twitter) they’re taking a look at Kiermaier as part of that search.

Subtracting Bellinger’s arbitration projection leaves L.A. with around $152MM in projected 2023 payroll, per Roster Resource, pending additional arbitration decisions. They’re estimated around $169MM in luxury tax obligations, leaving them well shy of next year’s $233MM base tax threshold. That doesn’t include an approximate $20MM salary for Clayton Kershaw, who’s reportedly nearing a deal to re-sign. Still, the Dodgers should have plenty of financial breathing room to address shortstop, center field, third base and rotation depth that look like the team’s biggest question marks early in the offseason.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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Los Angeles Dodgers Newsstand Transactions Cody Bellinger

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