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Orioles Claim Daz Cameron

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The Orioles have claimed outfielder Daz Cameron off waivers from the Tigers, per announcements from both clubs. The Tigers added that infielder Josh Lester went unclaimed on waivers and was assigned outright to Triple-A Toledo.

Cameron, 26 in January, was the No. 37 overall pick by the Astros back in 2015, when current O’s general manager Mike Elias was the scouting director in Houston. The son of three-time Gold Glove winner Mike Cameron, Daz at one point ranked among the game’s top 100 prospects at several outlets, including Baseball America and MLB.com, but has endured his share of struggles both in the upper minors and in parts of three big league seasons.

The Tigers acquired Cameron alongside Jake Rogers and Franklin Perez from the Astros in what has become an increasingly lopsided Justin Verlander trade back in 2018. Cameron has logged 73 games with Detroit over the past three seasons but managed only a .201/.266/.330 batting line through 244 trips to the plate. He hasn’t fared all that much better in Triple-A, slashing .236/.324/.398 in 1201 career plate appearances.

Cameron is out of minor league options, so if the Orioles will have to carry him on the Opening Day roster next year or else pass him through waivers at some point between now and then. For the time being, he seemingly bumps fellow righty-swinging outfielder Ryan McKenna (who does have a minor league option remaining) down the depth chart and more squarely back to the Triple-A ranks.

Lester, 28, was a 13th-round pick by Detroit back in 2015 and made his MLB debut in 2022, going hitless with three punchouts in a tiny sample of five plate appearances. He hit for plenty of power in Triple-A this past season, smashing 29 homers and 39 doubles with a .246/.311/.479 batting line in 621 trips to the plate. Lester has experience all over the infield but primarily played first base and in the outfield corners with Toledo in 2022.

Latest On Kodai Senga’s Market

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Japanese right-hander Kodai Senga will be looking to sign with an MLB team this winter. He figures to garner plenty of interest based on his track record of success with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks. He’s already been connected to the Cubs, while Jon Morosi of MLB Network adds the Blue Jays and Mariners to the mix (Twitter links). Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune lists the Padres as interested, while adding that virtually every other team will be as well.

The widespread interest is easy to understand. Just about every team in baseball could use an upgrade in the starting rotation and Senga seems plenty capable of providing that. Turning 30 in January, he already has a years-long track record of success in Japan. Most recently, he tossed 144 innings in 2022 with a 1.94 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate.

Adding to the interest will be that Senga is a proper free agent and not subject to the posting system. When players come over from Japan or Korea, they will usually be posted by their NPB or KBO team. The MLB team that signs the player would have to pay a fee to the posting team, which is not a cut of the contract. It’s an additional cost that is not subtracted from what the player is owed. However, the Hawks have a policy against posting their players and thus held onto Senga until their control over his services was exhausted. Going into his final year of control, he signed an extension with the team but one that allowed him the opportunity to opt out and become a proper free agent. That means that whoever signs Senga will not have to pay any extra fees to the Hawks.

The Blue Jays make for a fairly logical Senga suitor, given their starting pitching struggles in 2022. The Jays were able to win 92 games on the year but did so largely on the strength of their lineup and in spite of a lopsided starting rotation. Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman were excellent and provided the club with a strong one-two punch, but that was also offset by poor performances from José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi.

In the case of Berríos, he kept his ERA steadily between 3.52 and 4.00 for the five previous seasons before seeing it balloon up to 5.23 in his first full season with Toronto. Kikuchi was up-and-down during his time with the Mariners but posted a 5.19 ERA after signing a three-year deal with the Jays. Mitch White, acquired from the Dodgers in a deadline deal when he had a 3.70 ERA, ended up posting a 7.74 figure in his time with Toronto. After Hyun Jin Ryu required Tommy John surgery, swingman Ross Stripling stepped up and seized a rotation job, finishing the year with a 3.01 ERA in 134 1/3 innings. However, he’s now a free agent, leaving the Jays with a rotation of two solid starters and three question marks.

For the Padres, they also make good sense as a landing spot for Senga since they are seeing two holes open up in their rotation. Both Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea are now free agents, leaving the club’s rotation with Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. They also subtracted from their depth options at the deadline when MacKenzie Gore was included in the Juan Soto trade. One other wild card is Nick Martinez, who began 2022 in the rotation before getting bumped to the bullpen. He can opt out of his deal and become a free agent though his decision on that matter hasn’t yet been reported publicly.

Darvish and Snell are also set to reach free agency after 2023, leaving Musgrove as potentially the last man standing in 2024. Making a significant addition to the rotation would be sensible for the Padres both in the short term and the long term. They have some internal options to potentially help them out, with Adrian Morejon and Jay Groome on hand. However, Morejon missed most of 2021 due to Tommy John surgery and worked in relief when he returned in 2022. The club is reportedly not giving up on him as a starter just yet, but he will likely have to earn his way into a job by proving his health and effectiveness. Groome has shown a lot of potential in the minors but has yet to make his MLB debut and will also likely have to force his way into the picture.

The Mariners are less of an obvious fit than the other two teams here, as they actually seem to have a rotation surplus at the moment. The acquisition and subsequent extension of Luis Castillo gave them a strong front four, including Robbie Ray, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert. They also have a pair of good options for the final rotation spot in Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen. Since Flexen was bumped to the bullpen after Castillo came aboard and is now just one year away from free agency, he’s been speculated as a trade candidate. Signing someone like Senga would add to a situation that’s already fairly crowded, though it wouldn’t necessarily be out of character for president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto to make a move that leads to other moves. He didn’t get the nickname “Trader Jerry” for nothing, after all.

Of course, Senga’s market surely isn’t limited to these three teams. As Acee mentioned, just about every club is likely to have some degree of interest in him, the old adage about never having too much pitching getting heavy usage in the offseason and whatnot. The top of the free agent market for starting pitchers will feature aces like Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodon. Those three will surely require massive contracts that will price out some teams, leaving Senga as an attractive option on the next tier.

James Paxton Exercises Player Option

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The Red Sox announced that lefty James Paxton has triggered his $4MM player option, sticking with the club for 2023.

Paxton, 34, has oscillated back and forth in his career between excellent results and injury setbacks. He was drafted by the Mariners and pitched for them from 2013 to 2018. In those six seasons, he never posted an ERA higher than 3.90 but also never stayed healthy for a full season, topping out at 28 starts and 160 1/3 innings in his last year in Seattle. After being traded to the Yankees prior to 2019, he had another solid season, though again limited by injuries. He made 29 starts for the Yanks and tossed 150 2/3 innings, posting an ERA of 3.82.

The injury issues have only gotten worse since then, as the lefty was limited to just five starts and 20 1/3 innings in 2020 due to a left flexor strain. He reached free agency after that campaign and signed a deal to return to Seattle for 2021. He made only one appearance, throwing just 1 1/3 innings, before being shut down and eventually requiring Tommy John surgery.

Going into 2022, his status was uncertain. He was definitely going to miss some time, but it was possible he could be recovered from the TJS in time to contribute to a team down the stretch. He and the Sox agreed to a convoluted deal that reflected that uncertainty. Paxton earned a $6MM salary in 2022, with the convoluted part coming after that. First, the Red Sox would have to decide whether or not to trigger a two-year club option that would pay Paxton $26MM, with a $13MM salary in both 2023 and 2024. If they declined, Paxton would have the ability to trigger a one-year, $4MM option for 2023.

That structure seemed to take into account the wide variance of potential outcomes. If Paxton were able to return and show some of his previous excellent results, the Sox would be rewarded for taking the gamble by getting to lock him down for another two years. If things went the other way, their obligations would be significantly less but Paxton had a safety net in there for himself.

The latter scenario was what ended up happening in 2022, as Paxton suffered a lat strain during his rehab and never made it back to the active roster. Now the southpaw is in the position of having missed an entire season as well as only logging 21 2/3 innings over the past three seasons combined. That made it a fairly easy call for Boston to turn down their option as opposed to committing to Paxton for another two years. That decision was indeed confirmed on Monday.

That put the onus on Paxton to decide whether or not to lock in a $4MM guarantee for 2023. On the one hand, after three straight effectively lost seasons, it’s probably difficult to turn down cash on the barrel like that. On the other hand, Paxton got himself a $10MM guarantee last offseason when it was known that he was going to miss at least part of the year. In the end, he decided to opt for the proverbial bird in the hand as opposed to seeing what other creative deals he could find on the open market.

This decision could potentially work out for both parties in 2023, given the uncertainty in the Boston rotation. Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill have just become free agents, leaving some big holes in the rotation. Chris Sale declined his opt-out and will remain with the club next year, though he’s tough to rely on right now. Similar to Paxton, various injuries have limited him to 48 1/3 total innings over the past three seasons. He will surely have a role but might not be able to log over 200 frames like he has done in the past. That leaves Nick Pivetta as the most reliable member for next year, with some wild card options like Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock and Brayan Bello in the mix.

With all of that uncertainty, it’s likely that Paxton will be given a chance to make some starts and re-establish his health before returning to the open market a year from now. For the Sox, they will get a high-risk, high-reward roll of the dice that would certainly be worth the modest $4MM figure if Paxton’s health can cooperate.

Orioles Decline Club Option On Jordan Lyles

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12:55pm: The Orioles confirmed that Lyles’ option has indeed been declined.

12:47pm: The Orioles have declined their $11MM club option on Jordan Lyles, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He’ll instead be paid a $1MM buyout and become a free agent.

Despite coming off a pair of rough seasons in Texas, Lyles landed a surprisingly strong $7MM guarantee with Baltimore just prior to the league’s implementation of last winter’s 99-day lockout. The veteran righty, who just turned 32 a couple weeks ago, gave the O’s everything they could’ve reasonably hoped for and generally succeeded in turning that modest investment into a bargain.

Through a team-high 179 innings, Lyles posted a 4.42 ERA with an 18.6% strikeout rate, a strong 6.7% walk rate and a 40.2% ground-ball rate. The innings were particularly vital for a Baltimore club that was generally relying on young, unproven arms who cycled through the other four rotation spots behind Lyles. The stability he provided the team every fifth day both helped to spare the bullpen and to more effectively manage some of the workloads of an otherwise largely untested group of rotation candidates.

As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored recently, that steadying performance gave the team genuine cause to contemplate picking up Lyles’ option. While a net $10MM commitment (when accounting for the buyout) in the first week of the offseason would be aggressive for a pitcher who’s typically been more of a back-of-the-rotation arm, the O’s are still lacking in rotation certainty and have already pledged to increase payroll in 2023. Doling out a one-year pact to a veteran righty who drew heaps from a young staff that considered him a mentor and clubhouse leader might’ve been a defensible decision — particularly if Lyles were able to replicate his 2022 performance.

Instead, Lyles will return to the open market, likely in search of a multi-year commitment this time around. It stands to reason that, after landing a $7MM guarantee on the heels of a pair of dismal seasons with the Rangers, he might indeed be able to land a two-year deal with a vastly better performance now under his belt. It’s also possible that Lyles could yet return to the O’s — perhaps at a lower annual rate. Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun tweets that the Orioles issued a statement that while they preferred to let the pitching market develop rather than exercise Lyles’ option at this time, they’ll remain in touch with him and will not rule out a return at a later date.

Though he’s just 32 years old, Lyles already has more than 11 years of Major League service time under his belt. Selected by the Astros with the No. 38 overall pick back in 2008, he ranked among the sport’s top pitching prospects during his minor league days and ascended to the Majors before he’d even turned 21. It’s arguable that the ’Stros rushed him to the Majors, as he never really found his footing early on and still has a career track record featuring more valleys than peaks.

Still, Lyles had success with the Padres in 2018, with the Brewers in 2018-19, and now with the Orioles in 2022. He’s been a durable source of solid innings for the bulk of the past five seasons, which should make him an appealing option for teams that, as the 2022 Orioles were, are on the lookout for a veteran rotation stabilizer with a good chance to make 30-plus starts and generally keep the team in the game.  That may not sound like a glamorous role, but average innings have value — and teams pay for them every offseason.

Boras On Michael Conforto’s Free Agency

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Michael Conforto didn’t play a single inning or even sign with a team following last year’s qualifying offer and eventual shoulder surgery due to an offseason injury. However, agent Scott Boras tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post that he nevertheless feels the market can bring about a multi-year deal for his client. Boras suggests Conforto could seek a contract at least loosely modeled after the two-year deal he negotiated for Carlos Rodon with the Giants, which allowed Rodon to opt out after year one. Unsurprisingly, Boras characterizes the interest in Conforto as “so broad,” adding that he’s throwing from 120 feet and is able to generate full extension in his swing.

While Boras and Conforto could seek a contract structured similarly to that of Rodon, there are a few caveats worth emphasizing. First and foremost, Conforto can’t reasonably hope to match the $22MM annual value on Rodon’s contract and would surely be in line for a lower rate of base pay. Secondly, it should be noted that the second-year player option on Rodon’s contract was conditional; he needed to first reach 110 innings pitched before gaining the right to opt out of the deal. Any team taking the risk of signing Conforto for multiple years might prefer that he fully “earn” the right to opt out rather than make it a flat guarantee. Such clauses are generally dependent on playing time, be it in the form of games played or total plate appearances.

The comments on Conforto come after rumors percolated throughout the season that the longtime Mets outfielder would sign on with a club as a DH down the stretch, after he was detached from draft pick compensation following July’s 2022 draft. Such a deal never materialized, though Sherman notes the Astros had interest in signing him.

Conforto’s continued free agency is sure to be one of the more interesting cases to follow this offseason. Between his lost season in 2022 and a down season in 2021 where he slashed just .232/.344/.384 with a barely above-average wRC+ of 106, there are plenty of question marks surrounding Conforto. However, that’s also the case with many of his free-agent peers on the corner outfield market. While Aaron Judge’s likely record-setting free agency highlights the class, Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Haniger, Jurickson Profar, Joc Pederson, and Michael Brantley all join Conforto in free agency. Of the bunch, only Profar managed a full, healthy season.

Conforto’s significant upside as a 29-year-old (30 in March) who has flashed All-Star caliber production should still create intrigue among clubs. From 2017-20, Conforto slashed an impressive .265/.369/.495 and looked to be establishing himself as one of the league’s best right fielders. It’s easy to see why a team would want to take a chance on someone with his past success, but he has competition in even that regard. Joey Gallo represents an option with similar upside, less injury concerns, and the ability to play center field if needed, though his extreme, high-strikeout profile and ghastly 2023 results are serious concerns of their own that could make Conforto a more attractive option.

Fortunately for Conforto, just as there’s a large class of quality corner outfield free agents, there’s an equally large list of teams that will likely be looking for outfield help in 2023. Whether they re-sign Judge or not, the Yankees will likely look for an upgrade on Aaron Hicks in left field so they can keep Giancarlo Stanton entrenched at DH. The White Sox are in desperate need for outfield help, with only Luis Robert fully locked into everyday outfield opportunities as Eloy Jimenez looks likely to spend more time at DH next year and Andrew Vaughn could replace Jose Abreu at first base going forward. The Rangers will likely be interested in adding to an outfield that lacks certainty beyond Adolis Garcia and Leody Taveras, the Padres may look to replace the departing Profar externally, and the Blue Jays could certainly do with an upgrade to their current tandem of Raimel Tapia and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in left field. Even Conforto’s former team in Queens could be in search of outfield help this offseason, with center fielder Brandon Nimmo now a free agent and Starling Marte capable of sliding over to center without issue.

Dusty Baker Will Return As Astros Manager In 2023

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November 9: The Astros and owner Jim Crane have made it official, announcing that Baker will return on a one-year contract for 2023.

November 8, 5:35 pm: Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle relays word from Click, who says he is still “in discussions” about his future.

4:45 pm: Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that Baker and Click each received one-year contracts for 2023.

9:33 am: Fresh off his the first World Series title of his illustrious managerial career, Dusty Baker confirmed to Mark Berman of Houston’s FOX 26 that he’ll return to the team in 2023 (Twitter link). A deal has not yet been finalized, but Baker tells Berman: “I’ll be back, but we’re working on it. It’s as simple as that.”

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported shortly before Baker’s quote that Astros owner Jim Crane has already spoken to both Baker and general manager James Click about their futures and is planning to formally extend them contract offers for the 2023 season.

Named Houston’s manager in the immediate aftermath of punishments being meted out from the team’s 2017 sign-stealing scandal, Baker took the reins in a tumultuous situation and has seamlessly overseen not only a stabilizing period for the franchise but a continuous run of success. He’s now been at the helm of the Astros for the past three seasons, compiling a 230-154 record in that time, winning a pair of American League pennants and, just this weekend, adding another World Series title to the record books.

Baker has helped to oversee the breakout of one of baseball’s best young pitching staffs, serving as skipper while Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy have all established themselves as quality MLB hurlers — with Valdez, in particular, blossoming to the point that he ought to finish in the top five of this year’s American League Cy Young voting (though teammate Justin Verlander will be the favorite to win the award).

The 2022 season not only brought Baker his first World Series win as a manager but also saw him eclipse the 2000-win mark, making him just the 12th person to ever reach that milestone. Baker’s 2093 managerial wins currently place him ninth all-time, but another go-around in Houston will afford him the opportunity to take aim at Joe McCarthy (2125 wins), Bucky Harris (2158 wins) and Sparky Anderson (2194 wins) next season.

Baker would need a 102-win campaign to surpass Anderson and move into sole possession of sixth-place on the all-time list, but given the quality of the Houston core, that’s hardly an unattainable goal. His Astros just won 106 games in 2022, after all, and the team’s only free agent of true note is Verlander, who’ll surely be a target if and when he declines his player option and returns to the open market.

As for Click, there’s been a good bit of speculation about his future with the team amid multiple reports of friction between him and Crane. It’d be a surprise to see any team move on from its top baseball operations executive on the heels of a World Series victory, however, so it seems that even if the two parties don’t always see eye to eye, Crane will offer Click the opportunity to return on a new contract for at least the 2023 campaign. That forthcoming offer, of course, doesn’t necessarily guarantee that Click will return, but it’s nevertheless of clear note that Crane will at least ostensibly place the ball in his GM’s court.

Nationals Re-Sign Sean Doolittle To Minor League Contract

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November 9: Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post has relayed the financials of Doolittle’s deal on Twitter. The lefty will make a $1.5MM salary if he makes the team with various incentives available based on games pitched. He’ll earn an extra $100K for getting into 6, 10 and 14 games, $150K at 18, 22, 26 and 30, $200K for 34, 38 and 42, then $250K for 46, 54 and 58.

November 6: The Nationals have just announced a Minor League contract with veteran reliever Sean Doolittle. The agreement includes an invitation to 2023 Major League Spring Training. The lefty had recently expressed his desire to pitch in 2023 and welcomed a return to Washington.

Doolittle returned for a fifth season with the Nationals in 2022 after spending the 2021 season with the Reds and the Mariners. However, the 36-year-old dealt with an elbow sprain in mid-April and only appeared in six games, throwing 5 1/3 scoreless innings and allowing only one of the seventeen batters he faced to reach base. While working his way back from the issue, the lefty experienced a setback that forced him to undergo an internal brace procedure in mid-July to repair damage to the UCL in his throwing elbow. The internal brace procedure came with an expected five-to-six-month recovery timetable, so there is hope that Doolittle will be ready by the start of Spring Training.

As a team, the Nationals had a roughly average bullpen, pitching to a collective solid 3.84 ERA (15th lowest), a low 21.5% strikeout rate (25th lowest), and a good 8.6% walk rate (11th lowest). However, as discussed in MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook, the Nationals were likely candidates to add to their bullpen, with Erasmo Ramirez and Steve Cishek entering free agency and Tanner Rainey likely to miss most or all of 2023 due to Tommy John surgery.

With the Nats in the midst of a rebuild and ownership exploring a sale of the team, Doolittle represents a low-risk high-reward relief pitcher that may be flipped for prospects at the 2023 Trade Deadline.

Cardinals Acquire Jose Fermin From Guardians

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The Cardinals announced Wednesday that they’ve acquired minor league infielder Jose Fermin from the Guardians in exchange for cash. Fermin has been selected to the 40-man roster in St. Louis, the team added. The Cardinals also reinstated righties Alex Reyes and Drew VerHagen from the 60-day injured list, bringing their 40-man roster to a total of 38 players.

Fermin, 24 in March, spent the 2022 season with Cleveland’s Triple-A affiliate and batted .215/.336/.322 with just a 13.9% strikeout rate against a 12.7% walk rate. He’s hit just 22 home runs in 415 minor league games and 1687 plate appearances, which underscores the lack of power that scouting reports on Fermin have emphasized. He stole 28 bases in just 105 games as recently as 2019, but Fermin only swiped nine bags in 90 games and 330 plate appearances in Triple-A this year.

While Fermin played plenty of shortstop early in his minor league run with Cleveland, he was deployed exclusively at second base and third base in 2022. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wrote prior to the 2022 season that Fermin rarely swings and misses but “lacks passable big league physicality and is a better fit at second base than shortstop.”

For the Cardinals, Fermin will give them a right-handed hitter with experience at three infield positions and solid bat-to-ball skills. Fermin would’ve been eligible to be selected in this year’s Rule 5 Draft, but St. Louis obviously saw enough in him that they preemptively made a move to acquire him and add him to the 40-man roster. This is the first time Fermin has been selected to a 40-man, so he’ll have a full slate of three minor league option years — assuming he sticks on their roster for that long, anyhow.

The moves to reinstate Reyes and VerHagen were a formality. Reyes missed the entire 2022 season due to shoulder surgery and has now managed just 145 innings in the Majors since making his debut back in 2016. He’ll be in line to earn a projected $2.8MM in arbitration this winter, and the Cardinals will likely have to weigh non-tendering the once-vaunted prospect.

VerHagen, meanwhile, missed time with shoulder and hip impingements in 2022 and didn’t pitch after being placed on the injured list on July 17. Signed to a two-year, $5.5MM deal in March — the first post-lockout, Major League free-agent signing for fans of random MLB trivia — the 32-year-old VerHagen was unable to replicate the success he’d found pitching overseas in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. In 21 2/3 innings with the Cardinals, he logged a 6.65 ERA with a 17% strikeout rate against a bloated 13.2% walk rate. He’s owed $3MM next season.

The Opener: Click, Option Decisions, White Sox

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As the offseason continues to chug through it’s earliest stages, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:

1. Will James Click Continue As Houston’s GM?

While Dusty Baker has accepted a one-year contract extension as Astros manager, GM James Click did not do the same when owner Jim Crane offered him a one-year extension of his own, telling reporters he is “in discussions” regarding a new contract. While it’s something of a shock that the World Series-winning general manager wouldn’t receive a multi-year extension offer, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post notes, there has long been speculation of Crane looking for a change in the front office, which is only further fueled by reports that he shot down a deal for Cubs catcher Willson Contreras at the trade deadline. Heyman suggests that the Astros may have interest in David Stearns, a former Houston executive who recently stepped down from his president of baseball operations position with Milwaukee. Stearns is still under contract with the Brewers for 2023, however, so the Astros would likely need to make a minor trade along the lines of the deal between the Cubs and Red Sox to send Theo Epstein to Chicago after the 2011 season if they are to acquire his services for the 2023 season. It’s also worth noting that Stearns definitively stated upon stepping back as president he plans to remain in Milwaukee and spend more time with family.

2. Option Decisions Continue To Linger

On the eve of the deadline for options decisions, a few notable ones still linger. Perhaps the most notable player in the bunch is longtime Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner, on whom the club faces a $14MM decision on. A strong second half made what once seemed like an easy decision to decline the option much less clear cut. That being said, with players like Miguel Vargas and Michael Busch waiting in the wings, the Dodgers may prefer their younger internal options going forward. A few clubs also having intriguing option decisions to make in the rotation, most notably the Mets on Carlos Carrasco and the Orioles on Jordan Lyles. Both teams are relatively thin on proven rotation arms (the Mets thanks to other potential free-agent departures), so locking up a starter for 2023 could make sense for either club. That said, the $10MM the Orioles would spend on Lyles may be better served allocated to another starter with, perhaps, a higher ceiling, while the Mets may prefer to search for a younger option for their rotation than Carrasco, who will play 2023 at age 36. Aside from Carrasco, the Mets have Max Scherzer, 38, under contract for next season and are reportedly expressing interest in reunions with Jacob deGrom and Chris Bassitt, who are both in their mid-thirties.

3. White Sox Have Plenty Of Needs This Offseason

After a disappointing 81-81 season and with many holes to fill on the roster, the White Sox will need to be active this offseason. In addition to longtime first baseman Jose Abreu hitting free agency, outfielder AJ Pollock declined his player option in a surprising move, and Chicago declined to exercise their option on second baseman Josh Harrison. While these option decisions have saved the club some money (Pollock’s decision in particular saves Chicago $8MM), they still might not have a lot to spend this offseason. RosterResource estimates their 2023 payroll to be just over $174MM, not far below their all-time record payroll of $194MM in 2022. The Athletic’s James Fegan notes that while Hahn has expressed confidence in top prospect Oscar Colas as an outfield regular in 2023, he similarly noted the possibility that Eloy Jimenez will spend more time at DH going forward, leaving the club in position to pursue outfield options regardless of Colas’s readiness for an everyday major league role, particularly with Pollock’s departure meaning their best internal fourth outfielder is Adam Engel. Given most of the Chicago lineup is right-handed, an outfielder who can hit from the left side, such as Joc Pederson, or the switch-hitting Jurickson Profar, would make sense as a target. As for second base, Chicago’s dearth of production at the position in recent years makes them an obvious fit for Jean Segura, but a lower-cost option such as Adam Frazier could also make sense.

Dodgers Notes: Kershaw, Correa, Lux, Shortstop

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The Dodgers have not yet determined whether they’ll make a qualifying offer to Clayton Kershaw, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said last night at the GM Meetings (Twitter thread via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). Friedman emphasized that bringing Kershaw back “is a real priority” for the team, adding that “things just feel more right in the world when Kershaw is wearing a Dodgers uniform.” The team did not extend a qualifying offer to Kershaw last year, due largely out of respect for the veteran lefty, whom they didn’t want to force into a rushed decision.

Similar sentiments are at play in 2022, it seems, as Friedman again spoke Kershaw taking the time to talk with his wife to decide what’s best for their future. Common consensus last winter was that Kershaw would either return to the Dodgers (as he eventually did) or sign with the Rangers, who play their home games a short drive from Kershaw’s Texas home, which would thus afford him more time with his wife and four young children.

It’s a familiar situation for the Dodgers, and if last year’s process is any indication, it could take some time for things to play out. A Kershaw return would be a boon for a rotation that’ll be missing Walker Buehler (Tommy John surgery) for all of the 2023 season and could see Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney depart as free agents. At present, the only locks for the Dodgers’ 2023 rotation are Julio Urias, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin.

To that end, it’s not a surprise that Friedman described starting pitching as a “very” high priority for the Dodgers this winter (Twitter thread via Jack Harris of the L.A. Times). Friedman also touched on the team’s shortstop situation, noting that even if Trea Turner signs elsewhere, the team feels confident in Gavin Lux’s ability to take over the shortstop role on an everyday basis. Of course, it’s hardly a surprise to see any baseball operations leader giving a vote of confidence to an in-house option, and such comments shouldn’t necessarily be interpreted as a steadfast declaration that the Dodgers would be “out” on the likes of Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts or Dansby Swanson if Turner ultimately signs elsewhere after rejecting his qualifying offer.

It’s worth noting, to at least some extent, that The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote this morning that Dodgers officials harbor some concern as to how Correa in particular would be perceived by fans. It’s been five years since the Astros’ 2017 sign-stealing scandal, but fans have a long memory and still hold plenty of resentment for how that season played out. There are greater public relations implications with a Correa/Dodgers fit than with Correa and another club.

Adding my own two cents to the matter, it’d be particularly problematic if both Correa and Turner wind up with comparable price tags — as many expect — and Correa gets out to a poor start. Even setting performances aside, there’d be plenty of fan backlash at the notion of letting Turner, currently popular and productive in Los Angeles, leave in favor of Correa if the two indeed have comparable price tags. Plus, as Rosenthal alludes to, the Dodgers tend to shy away from such lengthy contractual commitments. Mookie Betts is a notable exception, but Freddie Freeman is the only other contract of at least six years given out by the Dodgers under Friedman; Correa and Turner both figure to command lengthier pacts.

As for Lux, the notion of him stepping up as the everyday shortstop isn’t necessarily far-fetched. The 24-year-old (25 in a few weeks) ranked as one of the game’s five best prospects heading into the 2020 season and, after pedestrian small-sample results in 2019-20, has elevated his level of play. Lux’s .242/.328/.364 slash in 2021 was about 10% worse than league average, by measure of wRC+, but he upped his production with a .276/.346/.399 output in 2022 (113 wRC+).

Lux was having a monster summer, hitting .308/.380/.462 over a span of more than 300 plate appearances, when he began experiencing back pain and received a cortisone shot. He missed about two weeks’ worth of games in September and, upon returning, hit just .154/.170/.192 in his final 54 plate appearances, which helped to drag down his season-long numbers. Still, there’s good reason to believe that a full, healthy season of Lux in 2023 could be a highly valuable player for the Dodgers at shortstop.

At this stage of the offseason, teams haven’t even yet been granted permission to speak with free agents from other clubs, so there’s no way to properly gauge just what trajectory the team might take. Nonetheless, it’s of some note to hear Friedman prioritize Kershaw (and starting pitching in general) and give a vote of confidence to Lux as a shortstop option. The Dodgers will surely be attached to all of the marquee shortstops to an extent this winter, but that’s as much a reflection on their deep pockets and “open to anything’ mentality as it is on their perceived need at that specific position.

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