Tyler O’Neill Targeting Cardinals’ Center Field Job
With last year’s trade of Harrison Bader, the Cardinals have less certainty in center field than they have had in a few years. Dylan Carlson got significant playing time there down the stretch and has been seen as the favorite for the job going forward, but he’ll have competition. Tyler O’Neill told reporters, including Lynn Worthy of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, that he has his sights on the job.
“I’d love to play center field,” O’Neill said. “I’m not trying to boot anybody away from that position either, but it’s whatever they deem fit. I know they’re very analytically-driven here. I just want to be the best player that I can be. I’ve worked really hard this offseason at increasing my first-step quickness and making sure my legs can be under me. I believe I can definitely play that position if that’s where they want me.”
It seems as though the club is willing to give him a shot. “(He’s) competing for the center field job,” manager Oliver Marmol said. “He came into camp wanting that. He came up through our minor-league system and actually profiled as a pretty good center fielder. So it’s something that he wants and he’s going to compete for and he’s going to have an opportunity to do.” O’Neill will get a chance to test himself out in competitive games before the MLB season starts, since he’s slated to play center for the Canadian team in the upcoming World Baseball Classic.
O’Neill, 28 in June, will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing season last year, but his 2021 was excellent. In 2021, he hit 34 home runs and stole 15 bases, producing a .286/.352/.560 batting line and a 144 wRC+. Defensively, he played exclusively in left field but got strong marks there, including 11 Defensive Runs Saved, four Outs Above Average and a 6.7 from Ultimate Zone Rating. Given his all-around contributions, he was deemed to be worth 5.6 wins above replacement per the calculations of FanGraphs. That placed him 13th among all position players in the majors, just ahead of guys like Aaron Judge and Jose Altuve.
However, he couldn’t maintain that kind of production in 2022, perhaps due to injuries. A shoulder impingement and hamstring strain each caused stints on the injured list, limiting O’Neill to 96 games on the season. His batting line dropped to .228/.308/.392, wRC+ of 101, with his defensive grades also slipping.
Since center field is considered a more challenging defensive position than the corners, O’Neill could potentially be even more valuable than he was in 2021. Of course, that would be contingent both on his health and his ability to be a viable center fielder. As Marmol mentioned, O’Neill came up playing center in the minors, but it wasn’t much. He logged 55 innings in High-A in 2015, 71 innings in Triple-A in 2017 and then another 50 2/3 innings at that level in 2018, the year he made his major league debut. In the majors, he has 210 2/3 innings there so far, most of that coming last year. It’s hard to get meaningful reads on a limited sample like that, especially because he was hurt at times last year, but he’s at least been around average. Both DRS and OAA have him at an even zero so far, while UZR has him slightly in the positive range at 0.8.
Carlson, 24, got much more center field experience in the minors, including getting around 800 innings at that position in both 2018 and 2019. Since making it to the majors, he’s logged over 1,000 innings in center with solid grades, including 6 DRS and 2 OAA, though UZR has him slightly below average at -1.0.
On the defensive side of things, he’s probably a more straightforward solution for the club, but his offense hasn’t shown the kind of ceiling that O’Neill has. In 312 major league games, he’s hit 29 home runs and stolen eight bases. His .247/.323/.407 batting is just a bit above average with a 103 wRC+.
That kind of production is still strong for a capable defender in center, but if O’Neill is deemed worthy of a shot out there, it could open up other opportunities for the club. They have one of the best prospects in the league in Jordan Walker, though he will probably be best suited for a corner. He came up as a third baseman but only recently started playing the outfield since Nolan Arenado has dibs on the hot corner in St. Louis for years to come. Walker dabbled in center last year but spent far more time in right. He clobbered Double-A pitching last year by hitting .306/.388/.510 for a wRC+ of 128 at the age of 20.
Walker will likely begin the year in Triple-A but his promotion doesn’t seem far off. At some point, the Cards will have to figure out how to juggle the playing time between Walker, O’Neill and Carlson, as well as players like Lars Nootbaar, Juan Yepez and Alec Burleson. The designated hitter slot should be open this year with Albert Pujols now retired, but it seems like there will be a logjam at some point. It’s the proverbial “good problem to have” and inevitable injuries will surely lessen the crowding at some point, but there might be some tough choices for the club to make in the future.
All of their outfield options are still shy of reaching arbitration and come with years of affordable control, except for O’Neill. He has between four and five years of service time and is slated for free agency after 2024.
AL Notes: Judge, Brash, Tigers, White Sox
After spending most of his career in right field and spending much of 2022 in center, it’s possible the reigning AL MVP will be taking reps in left field this spring. Yankees manager Aaron Boone tells reporters, including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch, that Judge playing some left field is “on the table” for this spring.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported yesterday that this was a consideration, with the goal being to allow slugger Giancarlo Stanton, who figures to be the team’s primary designated hitter, to play right on his days in the outfield due to Yankee Stadium’s outfield being far more spacious in left than in right. For his part, Judge told reporters, including ESPN’s Marly Rivera, that he wouldn’t mind Stanton playing more right field and taking reps in left if needed.
Stanton struggled with durability early on in his Yankees career, including just 41 games played in the 2019 and 2020 seasons combined. Since then, his transition to primarily playing DH has seemingly helped him stay on the field, as he played 249 games combined across the past two seasons, with just 64 of those games including an appearance in the outfield. In 2022, 34 of Stanton’s 38 games in the outfield took place in right, as Judge spent most of his time in center field. This year, 2022 trade deadline acquisition Harrison Bader figures to get most of the reps in center field, leaving Judge to spend more time in left if Stanton is to continue to make most his outfield starts in right.
More from the American League…
- The Athletic’s Corey Brock discussed yesterday the role of Mariners right-hander Matt Brash, who is set to begin the 2023 season as a member of the bullpen. Brash made the 2022 Opening Day roster as a starter but struggled mightily, posting a 7.65 ERA across five starts before being demoted to Triple-A. Brash returned later in the season as a reliever and dominated, posting a 2.35 ERA in 30 2/3 innings of work out of the bullpen down the stretch. Brock notes that Brash hopes to get another shot at starting in the future, and though he isn’t being stretched out this spring, the Mariners remain open to the possibility down the line.
- Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris spoke to the media, including Chris McCosky of The Detroit News, yesterday about the relatively quiet offseason in Detroit. Harris made note that, follow a disappointing 96-loss season, it didn’t make sense to acquire short term veterans who would take up what he called valuable at-bats that could go to young players who would be part of the next core. Detroit acquired a few such players, particularly in the trade that sent reliever Gregory Soto to the Phillies. That deal brought back Matt Vierling, Nick Maton, and Donny Sands, all of whom figure to get playing time in the big leagues with Detroit in 2023.
- Staying in the AL Central, White Sox GM Rick Hahn discussed how Chicago’s offseason had gone with reporters yesterday, including James Fegan of The Athletic. The White Sox made three key additions to their roster following a disappointing 81-81 campaign, signing righty Mike Clevinger, outfielder Andrew Benintendi, and most recently infielder Elvis Andrus to big league deals, with Benintendi’s five-year, $75MM contract being the only multiyear pact of the group. Hahn, referring back to his comments earlier in the offseason that he expected the club to be active on the trade market, noted the discrepancy between that expectation and what came to pass, saying “I did expect there to be more trades… You go into the offseason with needs and potential fits, and over the course of the offseason, you adjust based on what’s viable, both in free agency and via trade. Sometimes teams are pricing guys differently than expected.” As Fegan notes, a quiet offseason on the south side is somewhat unsurprising giving the club’s stated expectation that payroll would stay largely static headed into 2023.
Astros Notes: Alvarez, Brantley, Gilbert
Astros outfielder Yordan Alvarez is dealing with some left hand soreness, with both he and manager Dusty Baker speaking to reporters today about it, including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle and Mark Berman of Fox 26. Alvarez isn’t currently swinging a bat but expects to do so in the coming days.
Alvarez dealt with soreness in both hands last year but it doesn’t seem as though offseason surgery was ever seriously considered, with Baker relaying that doctors “said he didn’t need it.” Despite the seemingly persistent nature of the issue, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of concern, with Alvarez suggesting that it can be addressed with rest. It certainly didn’t seem to hamper him too much last year, as he launched 37 home runs and hit .306/.406/.613 for a wRC+ of 185, though he did go to the injured list once for the soreness in his right hand.
Everyone involved seems to be downplaying the issue for now and this all might pass in a few days. But given that Alvarez is one of the most potent sluggers in the league and the soreness seems to have been lingering for quite some time now, it will be a situation to monitor going forward.
Elsewhere on the roster, outfielder Michael Brantley is still trying to get back into shape following last year’s shoulder surgery but could spend some time at first base once he’s healthy. A report from Brian McTaggart of MLB.com indicates Brantley has been getting some work at first lately, with the club exploring if he’s a viable emergency option there. Houston will have José Abreu getting the lion’s share of the work at the cold corner after he signed a three-year, $58.5MM deal this offseason, but it seems there’s a chance Brantley could give him the occasional day off.
Brantley has a small amount of first base experience in the minors, way back in 2007 and 2008, but none at the Triple-A level or in the majors. “We’ll see how it goes,” Brantley said. “At the same time, it’s a team-first approach always. I’ve always been like that. If I can help the team out in any way, I’ll be available. It’s a lot of hard work. I’m learning a lot very quickly, but it’s all been going smoothly so far.”
If the experiment proves successful and Brantley becomes a legit option there, it could provide the club with a bit more flexibility in setting its lineup. Furthermore, Brantley has had a few significant injuries in his career and is turning 36 in May, meaning there might be some wisdom in having him play a position that generally requires less running around the field. Abreu will also be in his age-36 season, so helping him get off his feet on occasion could also have benefits.
For the time being, Abreu is likely followed by David Hensley and J.J. Matijevic on the first base chart, though they have just 16 and 32 games of MLB experience, respectively. It’s always possible that the club could find someone else to jump in, such as longtime Astro Yuli Gurriel, though general manager Dana Brown recently articulated the difficulty in finding a substantial role for a veteran like Gurriel. Unless something changes on that front, it seems Brantley will take a shot at making himself a part-time option at the position.
In more long-term news, prospect Drew Gilbert is expected to be ready to go when the minor league season starts, director of player development Sara Goodrum tells Rome. Gilbert was the club’s first round draft pick last year and played ten games in the lower levels of the minors before crashing into the outfield wall in a Class-A game. He was initially diagnosed with a forearm contusion though it was later discovered that he suffered a dislocation in his right elbow, which ended his season. He’s just 22 years old and will still have to climb his way up the minor league ladder, but the fact that he’s going to start the season healthy is still encouraging news.
Read The Transcript Of Our Chat Hosted By Former MLB Hitting Coach Rick Eckstein
Rick Eckstein’s playing career ended with the 1996 Florida Gators, where he played alongside his younger brother David. Rick moved directly into a coaching role at the University of Florida, the beginning of what has become a respected career.
Eckstein eventually worked his way up the ladder to become the Nationals’ big league hitting coach for nearly five years, working under manager Davey Johnson from 2009-13. Nats players Adam LaRoche, Ian Desmond, Ryan Zimmerman, and Stephen Strasburg won Silver Slugger awards under Eckstein’s watch. After a stint with the Angels as player information coach, Eckstein became an assistant coach at the University of Kentucky.
Following a few years as the Twins’ minor league hitting coordinator, Eckstein was hired as the Pirates’ Major League hitting coach under managers Clint Hurdle and Derek Shelton. He served in that job for nearly three years. Rick currently serves as a consultant to MLB hitters, given his vast knowledge and experience in the game.
Rick joined MLBTR readers today for a live chat, covering the new shift rule, working with Davey Johnson, and much more. Read the transcript here.
Angels Notes: Ohtani, Rendon, Barria
Agent Nez Balelo of CAA, who represents Shohei Ohtani, told reporters this week that while an extension is “always” something to which they’ve been open, Ohtani has also “earned the right to play through the year, explore free agency” (link via ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez) As one would expect, Balelo spoke rather vaguely with regard to his star client’s future, stating that Ohtani is taking things “day by day” and downplaying the idea that the Angels’ lack of postseason berths during his time with the team would push the two-way sensation to a new team. “He’s so competitive, like all great players are, so of course they want to experience postseason, of course they’d love to be in the World Series,” said Balelo. “But is that the deciding factor? I don’t know. We’ll just have to wait and see.”
At 28 years old, Ohtani has become one of the game’s brightest stars. He secured an All-Star berth in each of the past two seasons, winning American League MVP honors in 2021 and finishing runner-up in 2022 — while also grabbing a fourth-place finish in Cy Young voting. Since Opening Day 2021, he’s batted .265/.364/.554 with 80 homers and 37 steals in 1305 plate appearances, while at the same time pitching 296 1/3 innings of 2.70 ERA ball with a 31.4% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate. There’s been plenty of talk about the bidding war he could spark heading into his age-29 season, with speculation that Ohtani could sign the largest contract ever — perhaps even pushing $500MM in total value.
More on the Halos…
- Anthony Rendon is in Angels camp and feeling optimistic about the 2023 season despite requiring a second surgery in as many years last summer, writes Sarah Valenzuela of the Los Angeles Times. Rendon noted that returning even for a couple games late in the 2022 season brought him some peace of mind heading into the winter, and while his surgically repaired wrist wasn’t 100% throughout the winter, it’s feeling stronger now. He acknowledged that the Angels will likely be cautious with his workload and offered high praise for new teammate Gio Urshela — the trade acquisition who’ll play no small part in helping to spell Rendon when needed. Halos skipper Phil Nevin pointed out that Rendon already has one Comeback Player of the Year Award under his belt and expressed confidence that the former All-Star can return to form. Rendon, who signed a seven-year, $245MM deal with Anaheim following the 2019 season, has played in just 157 games since putting pen to paper. Fifty-two of those games came in the shortened 2020 season, when he turned in an outstanding .286/.418/.497 slash with solid defense at the hot corner. Since then, he’s played in just 105 of 324 possible games.
- Right-hander Jaime Barria is in the mix for the sixth spot in the Angels’ rotation, writes Sam Blum of The Athletic. He’ll join a group including Griffin Canning, Chase Silseth, Tucker Davidson and Chris Rodriguez in vying for that spot. As Blum outlines, that sixth-starter role could perhaps be best occupied by someone with Barria’s swingman experience, given that off-days will necessitate the sixth spot being skipped from time to time. Barria, who’s out of minor league options, figures to make the club one way or another this year, particularly given last season’s strong showing in a long relief role. In 79 1/3 frames, the 26-year-old posted a 2.61 ERA with a well below-average 17.1% strikeout rate but a strong 6% walk rate and a 40.9% grounder rate. Barria has never missed many bats but has typically displayed strong command en route to a career 4.09 ERA in 380 1/3 innings split fairly evenly as a starter (4.03 ERA, 56 appearances) and and a reliever (4.25 ERA, 44 appearances). He and the Angels avoided arbitration with a one-year, $1.05MM deal earlier this winter.
Drew Waters Out For Six Weeks With Oblique Strain
Royals outfielder Drew Waters will be out of action for six weeks due a left oblique strain, reports Anne Rogers of MLB.com. Given that there’s about five weeks until Opening Day, it seems as though Waters is destined to miss the start of the season.
Waters, 24, was a second round draft pick of Atlanta and was considered one of the best prospects in the game not too long ago. Baseball America had him up in the #32 slot on their top 100 list going into 2021, with reports highlighting his defense, speed, throwing arm and ability to hit from both sides of the plate. The biggest red flag on his profile, however, was a propensity for strikeouts that has carried into the upper levels of the minors as well as the big leagues.
Waters spent 2021 in Triple-A and struck out in 30.9% of his plate appearances, finishing with a .240/.329/.381 batting line and 94 wRC+. He had some similar results in the first half of 2022 before getting flipped to the Royals alongside two other minor leaguers for a Competitive Balance draft pick. The organizational switch seemed to suit Waters, as he finished the season strong. He hit .295/.399/.541 in Omaha before getting promoted to the majors in August, then hit .240/.324/.479 in the bigs for a wRC+ of 125. Those strong numbers aside, the strikeout issues still lingered. He was punched out in 28.7% of his trips to the plate with Omaha and 36.7% with the Royals.
Even though the strikeouts are still a work in progress, it seems the club believes in Waters enough to give him a lengthy audition. The trade of Michael A. Taylor to the Twins freed up center field and seemingly moved Waters to the top of the depth chart there. He’s considered a strong defender and could prove to be a useful player out there even without strong offense, similar to Taylor, though an above-average bat would obviously be ideal.
It seems that the audition will have to be delayed, at least for a short time. If the provided timeline holds, then Waters won’t miss too much of the season, but oblique injuries are often tricky and recoveries from them don’t always go exactly as planned. For as long as he’s out, the club will have to come up with a plan to cover the position. Manager Matt Quatraro says that Kyle Isbel will “get every opportunity to grab that spot,” per Rogers. Isbel has hit just .226/.281/.361 in the majors thus far but has a much stronger line of .268/.357/.447 in Triple-A over the past two years. He also has strong defensive numbers so far and could be a very useful contributor if he hits at the major league level.
With Isbel likely moving into center for a while, that will free up some playing time in the corners for others. Edward Olivares is a straightforward outfielder in the mix, while there are also many infielders who could see time on the grass, such as Nate Eaton, Hunter Dozier, Samad Taylor and Nick Pratto. There’s also catcher MJ Melendez, who has seen some time in the outfield with Salvador Perez taking the bulk of playing time behind the plate. A non-roster wild card will be Franmil Reyes, who recently signed a minor league deal with the club. He hasn’t played much outfield in recent years but the Waters injury could potentially free up some at-bats for him in the designated hitter slot.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Brewers, Tyler Naquin Agree To Minor League Deal
The Brewers have agreed to a minor league pact with free-agent outfielder Tyler Naquin, tweets Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. The Excel Sports client will be in big league camp as a non-roster invitee. It’s the second non-roster deal with a notable veteran for the Brewers today, as they also signed Luke Voit to a similar pact earlier this morning.
Like Voit, Naquin will give the Brewers some potential power to add to the lineup. He’s clubbed 30 homers and turned in a solid .201 isolated power mark (slugging percentage minus batting average) over the past two seasons between the Reds and the Mets. In that time, Naquin slashed .252/.311/.454, drawing walks at a 6.9% clip against a 25.4% strikeout rate. He’s primarily played in the outfield corners over the past two seasons and is better suited for corner work, according to most defensive metrics, though he certainly has experience in center and can handle the position in a pinch.
Naquin, 31, has spent parts of seven seasons in the Majors, mostly coming with Cleveland, who selected him with the No. 15 overall pick in the 2012 draft. He’s been deployed largely as a platoon player in recent seasons and owns a career .274/.326/.468 batting line against right-handers (as opposed to a .210/.272/.339 output against lefties).
As things stand, the outfield situation in Milwaukee is a bit in flux. Christian Yelich is locked into left field, but the options in center and left have limited track records. Garrett Mitchell turned heads with a .311/.373/.459 batting line through 68 plate appearances in his MLB debut last season, but he needed a sky-high .548 BABIP to get there and also fanned in 41.2% of his plate appearances; without pronounced improvement in his strikeout rate, regression is inevitable. That said, Mitchell was a first-round pick in 2020 and posted quality minor league numbers in 2022, so it’s certainly feasible that he could establish himself.
Meanwhile, 29-year-old Tyrone Taylor could be poised for a career-high workload. He’s coming off a rather pedestrian .233/.286/.442 batting line, but he grades out as an above-average defender who’s capable of playing all three outfield spots. There’s also Jesse Winker, acquired from the Mariners earlier in the winter, though he’ll be in search of a rebound at the plate and could also see ample time at designated hitter.
Further down the depth chart, Milwaukee has top prospects like Joey Wiemer and Sal Frelick in the upper minors. Both reached Triple-A in 2022 and thrived there, albeit in sample sizes of fewer than 250 plate appearances apiece. Milwaukee also inked switch-hitting Blake Perkins to a Major League deal earlier in the winter despite the fact that he’s never played a big league game. He slashed a combined .246/.357/.456 between the Yankees’ Double-A and Triple-A affiliates in 2022.
With a big spring showing, Naquin could put himself in the running for at-bats in right field, where the right-handed hitting Taylor would make for a natural platoon partner. He could also win a bench spot on a heavily right-handed-hitting club, where the current favorites for reserve roles include Mike Brosseau, Keston Hiura and perhaps either Luis Urias or Brian Anderson (depending on which lands at third base more regularly — a situation that is dependent itself on how quickly prospect Brice Turang gets a look at second base).
The Opener: Report Dates, Infield Market, MLBTR Chats
As the return of baseball games rapidly approaches, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. All players to have reported to camp:
The last 12 clubs have set their official report date for position players today. While the vast majority of players have already had their official report dates, and many players whose official report date was today reported early, today marks the day that every player invited to major league Spring Training for in present in camp. As always on official report dates, there’s a chance previously unknown injuries are revealed regarding players reporting for the first time today. Yankees lefty Nestor Cortes, Brewers lefty Aaron Ashby, and Mariners outfielder Taylor Trammell are among the players who were revealed to be injured upon arriving in camp this spring. Spring Training games are set to begin at the end of the week.
2. Infield Market Update
So far this week, shortstop Elvis Andrus, third baseman Edwin Rios and (just this morning) first baseman Luke Voit have all signed — Andrus with the White Sox, Rios with the Cubs, and Voit with the Brewers. Though the free agent market has largely thinned out to this point, there are still a handful of interesting players available who can contribute at the big league level.
Donovan Solano has experience at both second and third base and, though he is coming off a down season, was roughly league average with the bat in 2022 (98 wRC+). Jose Iglesias has largely been just below league average with the bat for his career outside of a outlier 2020 season with the Orioles where he posted a whopping 160 wRC+ (thanks, in large part, to a .407 BABIP that far outstrips his career .307 mark), but he has long been a reliable defender up the middle and could help an infield-needy club. Moving to first base, Yuli Gurriel and Miguel Sano remain on the market. Gurriel won a batting title in 2021 but saw his production crater in 2022, his age-38 season. Sano has been wildly inconsistent in his career and spent most of ’22 on the injured list but has as much raw power as nearly anyone in baseball.
3. MLBTR Live Chats Today
Yesterday, MLBTR had the pleasure of hosting a live chat with former MLB scout Tim Kissner for readers, the transcript of which you can read here. Today, our series of live chats with people from around the game continues as we’re excited to host Rick Eckstein, a former MLB hitting coach. Eckstein was the hitting coach for the Nationals from 2009-2013, and served as the Pirates’ hitting coach for three seasons, 2019-2021. Between those stints as a hitting coach, Eckstein also spent time as a member of the Angels and Twins organizations. In addition to his time as a major league coach, Eckstein also served as an assistant coach for the University of Kentucky. Keep an eye out for Eckstein’s chat at 3:30pm central time today.
Also today, at 11am CT, MLBTR’s Steve Adams will be hosting a live chat where he will field questions from readers. Be sure to stop by and ask any questions you might have about your favorite team or the larger baseball world as Spring Training gets underway and the offseason comes to a close. You can submit a question in advance, and use the same link to access the chat once it begins.
Diamondbacks Have Opened Extension Conversations With Corbin Carroll
The D-Backs have opened discussions with rookie outfielder Corbin Carroll about a potential long-term extension, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Neither the numbers under consideration nor likelihood of a deal coming together are known, though Piecoro cautions no agreement appears imminent.
It’s no surprise to hear Arizona would like to keep Carroll around for even longer than their allotted six seasons of club control. The Snakes selected the 22-year-old in the first round of the 2019 draft and quickly saw him blossom into one of the sport’s most touted young players. Carroll combined for a .307/.425/.611 line in the minors last season, earning his first major league call in late August. He made it into 32 big league games, starting off with a .260/.330/.500 showing with four home runs through his first 115 plate appearances.
Carroll is now cemented on the major league roster. Arizona dealt Daulton Varsho to Toronto for young catcher Gabriel Moreno, thanks in large part to their surplus of left-handed hitting outfielders. Piecoro writes that Carroll is ticketed for left field work during the upcoming season, presumably leaving center field to Alek Thomas and right field to some combination of Jake McCarthy, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Kyle Lewis.
Among that group, none is more highly-regarded than Carroll. Each of Baseball America, ESPN and The Athletic slotted him among the game’s top three prospects this offseason, with The Athletic’s Keith Law naming him the sport’s best rookie talent. Carroll is regarded as a potential face-of-the-franchise player, with evaluators effusive in their praise for his contact skills, power and athleticism.
The D-Backs already control the Seattle native at least through the 2028 season. He won’t qualify for arbitration until after the 2025 campaign at the earliest. Arizona surely doesn’t envision sending Carroll back to the minors, though if he struggles and winds up demoted at any point, his path to arbitration and/or free agency could be delayed further.
Even if Carroll is in the majors to stay, the six-year control window means the Snakes aren’t facing any urgency to keep him off the market. That said, the chances of pushing back his path to free agency would only figure to decrease over time if Carroll performs at the level the organization expects.
It’s not uncommon for teams to try to hammer out early-career deals with young players of this caliber. A handful of players have signed extensions even before making their MLB debuts, with Luis Robert securing the largest guarantee among that subset of players. Robert — regarded by Baseball America as the game’s #2 prospect at the time — signed a six-year, $50MM guarantee that included a pair of club options over the 2019-20 offseason to extend Chicago’s window of control by two seasons. Carroll already has a bit of MLB success under his belt and is assured of a major league roster spot heading into next season. It stands to reason his camp would aim higher than the Robert deal, particularly since the extension market has advanced over the past couple years.
Rays shortstop Wander Franco and Mariners center fielder Julio Rodríguez have signed massive extensions within the last 14 months. Franco’s deal guaranteed $182MM over 11 years and included a club option for a 12th season. Rodríguez’s deal was more complex, guaranteeing $210MM over 12 years and including a number of club/player options that could keep him in Seattle for an eye-popping 18 seasons.
The Franco extension more closely aligns with where Carroll is at in his career. Rodríguez had already made Seattle’s Opening Day roster before signing his extension midway through last season. He was well on his way to the Rookie of the Year award and was certain to accrue a full year of service time, essentially putting him in the 1-2 year service bucket at signing.
Franco, on the other hand, signed his deal over an offseason when he had some MLB time but less than a full year of service. That makes Carroll an apples-to-apples comparison from a service perspective, although the Tampa Bay shortstop arguably had a stronger negotiating platform than the Arizona outfielder does now. Franco had played in a little more than twice as many MLB games as Carroll has, suiting up 70 times for the Rays during his debut season. He’d hit .288/.347/.463 with seven homers and a minuscule 12% strikeout rate over 308 regular season plate appearances and posted an OPS north of 1.100 in four playoff games.
That’s a more robust MLB résumé than Carroll has yet been able to accrue. Franco was also a year younger last winter than Carroll is now and arguably an even more highly-regarded prospect. Franco had ranked as the sport’s #1 prospect at Baseball America in both 2020 and ’21. He’d also played in 82 more minor league games than Carroll has. That’s attributable to a 2021 labrum tear for the Diamondback, one which required season-ending surgery after just seven High-A games.
Clearly, Carroll showed no ill effects of that procedure in 2022. He rebounded with an excellent season and is now universally regarded as one of the league’s top young talents. Yet Franco was probably a slightly safer long-term bet at the time of his contract — thanks both to the absence of any serious injuries on his history and his lengthier big league track record.
The Braves worked out a long-term deal with the eventual National League Rookie of the Year last summer as well. Michael Harris II signed for eight years and $72MM with a pair of club options in August. Harris had less than a year of service at the time of his deal but his eventual award win would earn him a full service year at season’s end. He’d already established himself as a Gold Glove caliber center fielder at the time of his contract, though his offensive projection is perhaps a bit more uncertain than Carroll’s. Harris carried an excellent .287/.325/.500 line in 268 MLB plate appearances at the time of his contract, albeit with some questions about the sustainability of his .345 average on balls in play.
Arizona’s long-term payroll outlook is wide open. The D-Backs have just $42MM in estimated commitments on the books by the 2024 season, according to Roster Resource. Only Ketel Marte has a guaranteed deal that runs beyond ’24, with respective salaries of $16MM, $16MM and $14MM between 2025-27. Arizona will open this season with a player payroll around $119MM, so there’s certainly room on the books for an extension for a player whom the organization views as a cornerstone.
That might all prove a moot point if Carroll and his camp aren’t anxious to negotiate a longer-term agreement. It’s possible he’d prefer to bet on himself to establish more of a track record before discussing an extension, particularly since he received a signing bonus worth just under $3.75MM out of high school. Whether negotiations progress will make for an interesting subplot to D-Backs’ camp over the coming weeks.