NL East Notes: Scherzer, Soroka, Song, Phillies
Max Scherzer‘s three-year deal with the Mets is now one-third of the way complete and will afford him the ability to opt out at the end of the upcoming season. Andy Martino of SNY asked Scherzer about that forthcoming choice and the pitcher was fairly noncommittal about it, complimenting the direction of the organization but also acknowledging the business aspect of things.
“You have to understand the context of why I negotiated that in, and the context of where we’re at now,” Scherzer said, before elaborating that he didn’t know what to expect from the club if Jacob deGrom triggered his own opt-out at the end of 2022. “It was, if Jake opts out, you didn’t know what was going to happen. You didn’t know where the Mets would be as an organization. A big draw for me to come to New York was to get the chance to pitch with him, and here he has an opt out in year one. If he did take it and go somewhere else, what is the organization going to do?” After a chuckle, he said, “I got an answer.” Of course, he now knows that owner Steve Cohen was willing to spend lavishly on free agents, ramping the club’s payroll to the top of the league in order to field a competitive team for 2023.
That response from Scherzer stands in contrast to that of deGrom, who was quite clear at this time last year that his plan was to trigger his opt-out. It’s been a similar story lately with Padres third baseman Manny Machado, who’s openly declared his intention to opt out of his deal this fall. The fact that Scherzer isn’t quite so emphatic is perhaps somewhat hopeful for Mets fans, but it could also come down to a business decision, something Scherzer acknowledged as well. “If it becomes a business situation, we will cross that bridge at a different time,” he added. “At the end of the year, that will get taken care of … I’m not thinking about it. Obviously, you go through six months of the baseball season, anything can change. So it’s not even worth it to comment on whether I’m going to use it or not.”
If Scherzer has another typical ace season, he would be facing an interesting decision from a business perspective. He will turn 39 years old in July and be deciding whether or not to leave $43.33MM on the table and become a free agent again. That’s a lot of money to turn down for a player that age, but his now-teammate Justin Verlander secured himself a two-year, $86.66MM guarantee going into his age-40 season, the same average annual value. With that in mind, Scherzer might actually leave more money on the table by not triggering his opt-out. If he were to decide to depart, the Mets would be losing two members of its current rotation, as Carlos Carrasco is in the final year of his contract.
Some other notes from around the National League East…
- Braves right-hander Michael Soroka is dealing with a sore hamstring that will prevent him from taking the mound for about a week and from appearing in spring games for a few weeks. “It’s a kick in the groin,” Soroka said to David O’Brien of The Athletic about the setback. “Pretty frustrating, especially given the early offseason for me, just to be able to get ready for this spring training. Then coming down with that was not fun. But that’s how it goes, and we’ll be moving forward here pretty shortly.” Soroka has been significantly impeded by injuries in recent years, with his 2020 cut short after three starts due to a torn right Achilles. The recovery has been quite arduous, involving three surgeries as he missed the past two seasons entirely. This latest issue doesn’t seem to be huge, but it’s understandably frustrating that there’s yet another hurdle to clear. In 2019, Soroka made 29 starts with a 2.68 ERA over 174 2/3 innings. He figured to compete with Ian Anderson for the club’s fifth starter spot this year but he might have to play a bit of catch-up whenever he’s healthy. He does still have an option year remaining, should he need more time in the minors to get stretched out after this delay.
- The Phillies informed reporters, including Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer, that right-hander Noah Song has been discharged from the Navy and is expected to be in camp tomorrow. (EDIT: The club later clarified Song has not been discharged, but was transferred from active duty to selective reserves, which allows him to play baseball. Twitter link from Matt Gelb of The Athletic.) Song, 26 in May, was drafted by the Red Sox in 2019 but his baseball career was put on hold when the Department of Defense ordered the United States Naval Academy graduate to report to flight school. He was left unprotected in the most recent Rule 5 draft and was selected by the Phillies, whose president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was with the Red Sox at the time Song was first drafted. Some considered him a first-round talent back then, though he lingered until the fourth round due to concerns around that military commitment. This will now be an interesting and unusual experiment, as Song still hasn’t pitched professionally since a stint at Low-A in 2019. He was quite good at that time, posting a 1.06 ERA over seven starts but will now be jumping straight to the majors. As a Rule 5 draftee, he will have to stick on the active roster all season or put on waivers and then offered back to the Sox if he clears. The Phils could also pursue trades, though any acquiring team would face the same roster restrictions as the Phils themselves currently face. Song is currently on the military list and isn’t taking up a spot on the 40-man roster, with Gelb relaying that he will have to be added by Opening Day.
- Sticking with the Phillies, they will be navigating an open designated hitter slot until Bryce Harper returns from Tommy John surgery. The most recent estimate on that timeline has Harper returning around the All-Star break in July, giving the club a span of over three months to navigate. It seems the plan is to not have any single player entrenched in the spot and spread those opportunities around. “At this point, I think it’s a rotation,” manager Rob Thomson tells Gelb. “Getting people off their feet. Giving them a half day, so to speak.” In order to shuffle different players through there, positional versatility will be key. It was previously reported that infielder Edmundo Sosa will be getting some work in center field in order to increase his chances of getting playing time. Thomson also highlighted Josh Harrison as someone who could also see extensive action, given his ability to play all multiple positions. He’s played every position except catcher in his career, though he’s spent more time at second and third base than anywhere else. Thomson also mentioned the bat of Darick Hall, who hit nine home runs in his first 42 major league games last year. He’s been almost exclusively a first baseman in his professional career but the club is considering getting him some outfield work to help his bat into the lineup. “If he swings the bat the way he did last year,” Thomson said, “it’s going to be tough to keep him off the club.”
Reds Claim Bennett Sousa
The Reds announced Wednesday that they’ve claimed lefty Bennett Sousa off waivers from the White Sox. Chicago had designated him for assignment on Monday when finalizing their one-year deal with Elvis Andrus. Cincinnati placed right-hander Vladimir Gutierrez, who underwent Tommy John surgery last July, on the 60-day injured list to clear a spot on the 40-man roster.
The 27-year-old Sousa made his MLB debut with the Sox last year but was knocked around for 19 runs on 25 hits and 10 walks in 25 1/3 frames — an 8.31 ERA. Ugly as that showing was, he’s regularly turned in sub-4.00 ERAs in the upper minors while displaying above-average strikeout and ground-ball rates. Command issues have plagued him at times, however, and while Sousa looked to have turned a corner with a tiny 5.3% walk rate in 2021, he walked 10.3% of his opponent in a similar sample size of Triple-A innings this past season.
Overall, Sousa has a 3.96 ERA, a 32.2% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate in 50 Triple-A frames, in addition to a 2.96 ERA, 35.6% strikeout rate and 13.9% walk rate in 27 1/3 innings at the Double-A level. Sousa has a pair of minor league option years remaining and averaged a solid 94.3 mph on his heater in the big leagues last year. Paired with his 11.7% swinging-strike rate (and history of missing bats in the minors) there could be improvement on the horizon for the unsightly 12.5% strikeout rate he posted in the Majors last year.
Sousa joins Reiver Sanmartin as a lefty option for manager David Bell‘s bullpen. That’s the only pair of southpaw options on the 40-man roster — outside of prospect Brandon Williamson, who’ll surely continue to be utilized as a starter — but Sousa will have competition in camp in the form of non-roster invitees like Daniel Norris and Alex Young.
White Sox Sign Bryan Shaw To Minor League Deal
The White Sox have signed veteran reliever Bryan Shaw to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training, the team announced. The CAA client will vie for a spot in Chicago’s bullpen over the next several weeks.
Shaw, 35, has spent the bulk of his career — including the past two seasons — in Cleveland. He struggled to a 5.40 ERA in 58 1/3 innings with the Guardians in 2022, thanks to one of the lowest strand rates of his career (66.3%) and one of the highest home-run rates he’s ever yielded (1.39 HR/9, 15.5% homer-to-flyball ratio).
Shaw was one of the most consistent and most durable relievers in the game from 2013-17, thrice leading the American League in appearances and twice leading all of MLB in that category. In that span, he tossed 358 2/3 innings of 3.11 ERA ball, which set the stage for a three-year, $27MM deal in Colorado that almost immediately proved regrettable for the Rockies. Shaw was tagged for a 5.61 ERA in two seasons with Colorado before being released and struggling with the Mariners the following season.
While things have gone poorly for Shaw dating back to 2018 — 5.23 ERA, 268 1/3 innings — his 2021 season offered a glimpse of his vintage form. He’s only one year removed from 77 1/3 frames of 3.49 ERA ball in his first of two seasons back in Cleveland. Even as he’s struggled, Shaw has maintained solid velocity (94.6 mph average four-seamer over the past couple seasons) and above-average ground-ball tendencies.
Shaw will give the ChiSox a durable veteran arm who can potentially be stashed in he upper minors, and if he’s able to round into 2021 form, he can help the Sox to weather the absences of Garrett Crochet (April 2022 Tommy John surgery) and Liam Hendriks (undergoing treatment for non-Hodgkins lymphoma). As things currently stand, Chicago’s primary late-inning relievers include Kendall Graveman, Joe Kelly, Aaron Bummer, Reynaldo Lopez and Jake Diekman.
Lance McCullers Jr. Won’t Be Ready For Start Of Season
Astros right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. told reporters Wednesday that a recent MRI on his ailing right arm revealed a “small muscle strain” and that being ready for opening day is “out of the question” (Twitter link via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). McCullers added that there’s no structural damage in his arm and that his ulnar collateral ligament is undamaged. He’ll still be shut down for multiple weeks, which makes a season-opening stint on the injured list seem likely.
It’s another unfortunate health setback for the 29-year-old McCullers, who was limited to eight starts during the regular season, plus another three in the postseason. That lengthy absence was due to a forearm strain dating back to the 2021 American League Division Series. The 2022 season marked the second time in four years that McCullers missed substantial time due to an arm injury; he missed the entire 2019 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in Nov. 2018.
Recent health woes notwithstanding, McCullers is one of the Astros’ most talented starters, evidenced by four consecutive sub-4.00 ERA seasons with consistently above-average strikeout rates and premium ground-ball rates. Over his past 393 1/3 regular-season innings, McCullers touts a 3.39 ERA, a 26.5% strikeout rate and a huge 55.6% grounder rate. The right-hander’s 10.3% walk rate in that time could stand to be improved upon, but his strikeout and ground-ball rates have helped mitigate what has at times been sub-par command.
The Astros lost Justin Verlander to free agency this winter and opted not to add another starter, due in large part to the organization’s considerable pitching depth. McCullers, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy form a strong quintet upon which to lean, and Houston has one of the top pitching prospects in the sport, Hunter Brown, ready for a big league audition.
If McCullers indeed opens the season on the injured list, his spot in the rotation would likely be filled by Brown. The 24-year-old made a brief MLB debut in 2022, pitching 20 1/3 innings with a sterling 0.89 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate and 68% grounder rate. That came on top of 106 innings of 2.55 ERA ball in Triple-A — his second successful run at that level.
There’s no indication just yet as to when McCullers might be sufficiently ramped up to join the big league club. His shutdown will likely last into mid-March, and the Astros will presumably have a clearer timeline once he eventually resumes throwing. For now, Brown looks poised to step into the big league rotation, leaving swingman Brandon Bielak and minor league righties Shawn Dubin, J.P. France and former top prospect Forrest Whitley as the Astros’ top depth options in the event of further injury.
McCullers is entering the second season of a five-year, $85MM contract extension and is owed $66.25MM over the next four seasons, beginning with a $15.25MM salary in 2023.
Read The Transcript Of Our Chat Hosted By International Scout And Former Pitcher Ryan Sadowski
Ryan Sadowski was drafted in the 12th round in 2003 by the Giants out of the University of Florida. He broke into the Majors in 2009 as a 26-year-old, tossing six scoreless frames against the Brewers at Miller Park. The magic continued in Ryan’s next start against the Astros. By the time he was scored upon in his third start, Sadowski had opened his career with 16 scoreless innings, a San Francisco Giants record.
Sadowski’s six starts in ’09 represented the entirety of his MLB career. He jumped to the Lotte Giants in 2010, ultimately spending three years in KBO and making 79 starts. As he put it in an interview with Bill Francis, “When you’re 26 and you’ve kind of kicked around the minor leagues and gotten a little bit of play in the major leagues and then this opportunity from Asia comes around in a league that had just won a gold medal in the Olympics and had performed in the top two in the WBC the year before, you gotta take it if you’re in my position.”
When his playing days were done, Ryan made a name for himself in international scouting by producing a report that helped the Netherlands beat South Korea in the 2013 World Baseball Classic. A few years later, he was hired by the Lotte Giants in an international scouting position. He later moved to KBO’s Kia Tigers.
Currently, Ryan serves as President of Baseball International Group of Scouts, BIGS for short. As Ryan puts it, “BIGS is a scouting group focused on identifying and providing scouting reports and projections to MLB, NPB, KBO and CPBL teams on the the AAAA players who have not stuck in the major leagues but have found success in AAA. BIGS scouts also evaluate players in the NPB, KBO, and CPBL who are candidates to move to MLB or switch leagues.” You can follow Ryan on Twitter @incugator.
Ryan held an insightful live chat with MLBTR readers, discussing the differences between MLB and baseball in Asia, emerging markets around the world for baseball talent, which American players are most likely to succeed in Asia, and much more. Click here to read the transcript.
The Opener: Solano, Outfield Market, Live Chats
As we eagerly await the return of baseball games later this week, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Solano signing could be made official:
The Twins signed Donovan Solano to a major league deal yesterday, further adding to what was already a deep position player group. The signing is reportedly pending a physical and has yet to be announced. As Spring Training has kicked into gear, however, the turnaround on the signing being made official could become shorter. (For example, Elvis Andrus‘s deal with the White Sox was announced the day after being initially reported.) The Twins will need to make a corresponding 40-man roster move to officially add Solano, but with both Chris Paddack and Royce Lewis expected to miss significant time to open the season, sending either player to the 60-day IL would clear a spot without needing to designate someone for assignment. Presumably, a big league deal with the right-handed-hitting Solano will rule out a match between the Twins and formerly rumored target Yuli Gurriel.
2. Outfield market update
The outfield market has thinned further over the past week as Robbie Grossman signed with the Rangers late last week while Tyler Naquin agreed to a minor league deal with Milwaukee yesterday. Of course, Jurickson Profar remains unsigned and tops not only the outfield market, but the entire free agent market at this point in the offseason. Looking beyond Profar, though, there are few players remaining who seem like strong bets to receive major league deals at this point. Potentially interesting fliers remain on the market such as Albert Almora, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Ben Gamel, but none of those players seem clearly better than Naquin, who had to settle for a minor league deal.
3. MLBTR Live Chats
Yesterday, MLBTR welcomed former MLB hitting coach Rick Eckstein for a live chat with readers, the transcript of which you can read here. Today, we’re excited to welcome former major league pitcher and longtime international scout Ryan Sadowski, who will be conducting a live chat of his own with readers this morning. Sadowski made the big leagues in 2009 as a member of the Giants and made six starts for the club, pitching to a 4.45 ERA (97 ERA+) across 28 1/3 innings of work. Following his stint in the big leagues, Sadowski headed overseas, where he pitched in the KBO for three seasons, logging a 4.03 ERA in 460 innings abroad. Since retiring as a player, Sadowski has worked as an international scout with the KBO’s Kia Tigers and as the director of international scouting for the KBO’s Lotte Giants. Be sure to tune in later today at 10am CT for Sadowski’s live chat.
Meanwhile, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco will be conducting his own weekly chat, following yesterday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams (transcript here). Should you have any remaining unanswered questions about your favorite team or the league in general as the baseball world gears back up for the spring, you can follow this link to submit a question in advance, and that same link will take you to the chat once it begins at 5pm CT this evening.
Brewers, Luke Voit Agree To Minor League Deal
The Brewers have agreed to a minor league contract with free agent first baseman/designated hitter Luke Voit, reports Adam McCalvy of MLB.com (Twitter link). Voit, a client of Excel Sports, will be in big league camp as a non-roster invitee.
For two-plus seasons, Voit was an absolute powerhouse in the middle of the Yankees’ lineup, batting a combined .279/.372/.543 with 57 home runs, 31 doubles and an 11.5% walk rate (albeit against a more troublesome 26.3% strikeout rate). That production came over the life of 892 plate appearances and included an MLB-best 22 home runs during the shortened 2020 campaign.
The past two years, however, have been nightmarish for the slugger — in no small part due to health troubles. Voit began the 2021 campaign on the injured last after suffering a torn meniscus in his left knee during spring training. That injury required surgery and kept him out of action into mid-May, but his return proved short lived. Just two weeks after returning to the field, Voit sustained a Grade 2 oblique strain.
While even Grade 1 oblique strains can often lead to month-long absences, Voit was still back on the field less than one month later. This return from the IL, in similar fashion, was brief in nature. Three weeks after being activated, Voit was back on the shelf due to inflammation and discomfort in his surgically repaired left knee. The Yankees shopped and nearly traded Voit at the 2021 trade deadline, but he was back on the active roster from Aug. 8 until Sept. 30 — when pain in that left knee again sent him to the injured list, formally ending his season. He closed out that year with a career-worst .226/.308/.402 batting line.
The Yankees traded Voit to the Padres just before Opening Day 2022, receiving righty Justin Lange in the swap. Voit hit .225/.317/.416 in 344 plate appearances with the Padres before being traded to the Nationals in the Juan Soto blockbuster. With Washington, Voit’s production took a step back, evidenced by a .228/.295/.381 slash in his two months down the stretch. Washington non-tendered him following the season, preferring not to offer him a raise on last year’s $5.45MM salary.
With the Brewers, Voit will look to get back on track in a more hitter-friendly setting than he played in during the 2022 season — if, of course, he makes the club. The Brewers already have Rowdy Tellez at first base, and outfielder Jesse Winker could be in line for DH reps, depending on how the rest of the outfield mix plays out. Christian Yelich is entrenched in left field (and in search of his own rebound), while center field and right field currently look as though they’ll be manned by Garrett Mitchell and Tyrone Taylor.
On the surface, Voit’s right-handed bat looks like a natural pairing for either Tellez or Winker in a platoon capacity, but that’s not necessarily the case. In his career, Voit’s production against left-handed opponents (.236/.329/.439) is inferior to his production against righties (.262/.347/.491). He’d still be an upgrade over either Tellez or Winker against southpaws, but using him primarily against lefties wouldn’t necessarily maximize his skill set.
For Voit to find success in Milwaukee, he’ll first and foremost need to pare back a strikeout rate that has spiraled in the wrong direction since that injury-ruined 2021 season. Over the past two seasons, Voit has fanned in 31.3% of his plate appearances — a far cry from the 26.3% clip at which he punched out during his Yankees peak and an even farther cry from his career-best 23.1% during that standout 2020 campaign. Voit still makes hard contact at a very strong clip (44.6% over the past two seasons, per Statcast) and barrels the ball at an elite rate (15%) — but that ability for loud contact has been undercut by his uptick in whiffing altogether.
If Voit makes the club and is able to return to form, he’d be a multi-year option for the Brewers, as he’s just shy of five years of Major League service time. As such, he’d be controllable one more year via arbitration. That’s putting the cart before the horse, but it’s a nice potential longer-term benefit if he can engineer a rebound with the Brew Crew.
The Rangers’ Multi-Inning Relief Weapon
The Rangers spent most of last year out of playoff contention, in significant part due to an inability to win close games. Texas finished 26 games under .500 despite a relatively modest -36 run differential, with a staggering 15-35 record in one-run contests dooming any chance they had of sticking around the periphery of the Wild Card race.
Any time a team is that bad in close games, it’s safe to assume they were victimized by a lack of clutch hitting. That was true of Texas, although their struggles also reflected a middling relief corps. Ranger relievers finished 21st in strikeout/walk rate differential and tied for sixth in blown saves (28). Nevertheless, the Rangers shied away from any splashy additions to the bullpen this winter. They instead poured virtually all their resources into completely overhauling the starting rotation.
That’s a strong show of faith in the club’s internal bullpen options. It’s a relatively young group but one that has a few players coming off strong 2022 seasons. Hard-throwing righties José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández returned from Tommy John rehabs to impress down the stretch. Meanwhile, left-hander Brock Burke quietly put forth an excellent year as a multi-inning weapon.
Burke underwent a significant surgery of his own a few years back. He’d debuted in the big leagues with six unsuccessful starts in 2019 and required a procedure to fix a labrum tear in his throwing shoulder the ensuing offseason. Burke would’ve missed the entire ’20 season regardless of whether a full schedule were played. He returned to health in 2021 but spent the whole year on optional assignment to Triple-A Round Rock.
When he took the mound for his 2022 debut on April 10, it represented his first big league outing in two and a half years. The Rangers unsurprisingly deployed him in mostly low-stakes innings for the season’s first month. After posting a 20:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio through the end of April, Burke increasingly found himself in more meaningful game states. He’d remain a consistent weapon throughout the year, posting an ERA below 4.00 in each month — including a sub-3.00 mark for the first four months of the season.
Called upon 52 times, Burke soaked up an MLB-leading 82 1/3 innings of relief. No reliever faced more than the 328 batters that stepped in against him. Despite frequently going into a second inning, Burke remained very productive on a per-batter basis. He held opponents to a putrid .211/.275/.356 line, striking out an above-average 27.4% of batters faced with a solid 7.3% walk rate. He compiled a 1.97 ERA. Estimators like FIP and SIERA felt his production was more akin to that of a low-3.00’s ERA hurler, but even regression to that level would leave Burke as a quality high-leverage arm.
Now 26, Burke had been a solid prospect prior to his shoulder injury. Acquired from the Rays in the three-team deal that sent Jurickson Profar to Oakland over the 2018-19 offseason, he appeared among Texas’ top 30 farmhands at Baseball America over his first two years in the organization. Evaluators regarded him as a potential back-of-the-rotation starter, though his injury threw that off course. Burke told reporters (including Levi Weaver of the Athletic) over the offseason he was hopeful of getting another crack in the rotation. The Rangers’ activity in that regard rules that out, at least to open the year, and the former third-round draftee added he was content with whatever role he’s assigned.
The Rangers seem poised to count on him even more heavily out of the bullpen. General manager Chris Young left open the possibility of Burke getting some ninth-inning work for the first time in his career, though he suggested the multi-inning fireman role might be more valuable for first-year skipper Bruce Bochy. Young implied the team could look to get Burke as many as 100 innings of relief in 2023, a tally only once reached in MLB over the past decade (by then-Rays southpaw Ryan Yarbrough, who frequently operated as a bulk pitcher behind an opener, in 2018).
Whatever the role, it’s clear Burke has put himself among Texas’ most important relievers. The club watched Matt Moore sign with the division-rival Angels and lost Brett Martin for at least the bulk of the upcoming season to shoulder surgery. Taylor Hearn, John King and non-roster invitee Danny Duffy are still in the mix, but the Rangers’ left-handed bullpen contingent isn’t as strong as it was six months ago. Burke certainly won’t function in a lefty specialist capacity but is certain to get plenty of looks against opposing teams’ best hitters from either side of the dish. While that wasn’t the case at this time a year ago, he’s now entrenched in the bullpen after his breakout season.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Examining The Cubs’ Fifth Starter Options
Longtime Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks is expected to begin the season on the injured list, setting the 2023 Opening Day roster in Chicago up to be the first one to not include a member of the 2016 World Series championship team since 2012 following the departure of Willson Contreras and Jason Heyward over the offseason. As fans on the north side of Chicago begin getting used to the new era of Cubs baseball, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer’s front office has an important question to answer this spring: who will take Hendricks’s turn in the rotation while he’s injured?
As manager David Ross told reporters, including the Chicago Tribune’s Meghan Montemurro, young righties Keegan Thompson and Adbert Alzolay do not figure into the club’s rotation plans, with both players expected to start the season as members of the bullpen. That still leaves plenty of options for the final spot in the Cubs’ rotation behind Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, and Drew Smyly, however. Two players in particular seem. to have the inside track toward the first crack at starting for the big league club in 2023:
Perhaps the most likely contender for the role, the journeyman Sampson is entering his age-31 season with a strong chance at an extended look in the big leagues for just the third time in his career. Sampson’s tenure as a member of the Cubs began late in the 2021 season following a late August call-up. Across 10 appearances and five starts, Sampson pitched well, with a 2.80 ERA (152 ERA+) in his 35 1/3 innings of work. The underlying metrics didn’t feel so positively about his performance, however, as Sampson allowed a minuscule .232 BABIP and left a whopping 88.4% of runners on base despite over one in five of his fly balls allowed leaving the yard. Those red flags left him with a concerning 5.72 ERA, but the Cubs saw enough in Sampson to sign him to another minors deal for the 2022 season.
The 2022 season proved to be something of a revelation for Sampson after he received an opportunity in Chicago’s rotation following a slew of injuries. In 104 1/3 innings across 21 appearances (19 starts), Sampson pitched to a strong 3.11 ERA (132 ERA+) that, unlike the previous season, was more supported by underlying metrics. Sampson’s BABIP of .288 and LOB% of 77.6% both returned to figures far closer to his career norms of .299 and 76%, respectively, giving him a much more palatable 3.79 FIP on the season. Much of this improvement came from a drastically reduced home run rate, however, as Sampson saw just 7.7% of his fly balls allowed leave the yard during the 2022 campaign. That rate isn’t likely to be sustainable going forward, leaving a major red flag in Sampson’s profile entering the 2023 season.
Given his success in 2022 and the $1.9MM salary he agreed to for 2023 in a pre-tender deal with the Cubs, it would make plenty of sense if the veteran righty had the inside track to the fifth starter’s job to open the 2023 season even in spite of those concerns. That being said, Sampson still has a minor league option remaining, meaning he could be stashed in Triple-A as depth should he not make the Opening Day rotation. Furthermore, for a team like the Cubs with a handful of pitching prospects approaching the big leagues, it would be understandable for the organization to prioritize figuring out what they have in those youngsters over giving a journeyman like Sampson an extended run, even following his big league success in 2022.
One such pitching prospect is Wesneski, the right-hander the Cubs acquired from the Yankees at the 2022 trade deadline in exchange for sidearming reliever Scott Effross. Wesneski made his big league debut in September and found instant success, even throwing an immaculate inning during his late season cup of coffee. Overall, Wesneski pitched to a sterling 2.18 ERA (190 ERA+) over 33 innings. He also struck out a quarter of opponents with a meager 5.3% walk rate, leading to an excellent 3.20 FIP backing up his raw run prevention numbers.
This fantastic performance towards the end of the season has seen Wesneski generate considerable hype throughout the offseason, and he enters Spring Training as Sampson’s likely biggest challenger for the fifth starter role in Chicago. As previously mentioned, the Cubs have an assortment of interesting pitching prospects in the upper levels of their minor league system, including Caleb Kilian, Ben Brown, and DJ Herz. Given this reality, it would make plenty of sense for the Cubs to use these early season innings to get Wesneski more experience against big league pitching and see how the league adjusts to him following his strong debut.
However, with just four starts and six total appearances in the big leagues under his belt, it would be understandable if the Cubs wanted to take things slowly with Wesneski. After all, the righty just turned 25 years old and has multiple minor league option years remaining. Additionally, Wesneski’s 143 1/3 innings between Triple-A and the majors in 2022 was a career high, so it’s possible the Cubs will be keeping a close eye on his innings this season, while the club is still working towards a return to contention.
Other Options
While Sampson and Wesneski appear to be the front-runners for the job, there’s a few other players who seem likely to be in the mix for the fifth spot in Chicago’s Opening Day rotation. Ross specifically mentioned right-hander Javier Assad as a potential candidate. Assad, like Wesneski, is entering his age-25 season in 2023 and received a brief cup of coffee in the big leagues in 2022. Over 37 2/3 innings across nine appearances and eight starts, Assad pitched to a strong 3.11 ERA (133 ERA+), though his unimpressive 18.1% strikeout rate and concerning 12% walk rate leave plenty of room for concern, as demonstrated by his 4.49 FIP.
In addition to Assad, a pair of non-roster invitees could see consideration for a rotation spot. Nick Neidert spent his career as a member of the Mariners and Marlins organizations prior to signing with the Cubs on a minor league deal this offseason, and pitched well in 2022, both in 46 innings at the Triple-A level (1.96 ERA) and in a spot start for the Marlins in the big leagues (3.60 ERA over five innings), though he spent much of the season on the injured list.
Meanwhile, Roenis Elias has some success in the big leagues, with a career 3.96 ERA (98 ERA+) and 4.26 FIP in 395 2/3 innings of work in the big leagues. Elias also delivered a particularly strong performance in the Dominican Winter League this offseason, posting a fantastic 0.92 ERA in 39 innings of work. On the other hand, most of Elias’s recent big league experience has come out of the bullpen, with the lefty starting just 5 major league games since the start of the 2016 season. Both Elias and Assad are also set to pitch in the World Baseball Classic this spring, giving the Cubs a unique potential look at their abilities in a more competitive setting than Spring Training can usually provide.
Between Sampson, Wesneski, and the above trio of darkhorse options, the Cubs have an interesting choice to make ahead of Opening Day regarding who will take up Hendricks’s spot in the rotation until he returns from the injured list. It’s possible injuries could make the decision easier by that time, either by taking options out of the running or opening up more spots in the rotation for those competing. Even if that happens, though, the Cubs appear to be in a good place in terms of quality starting pitching depth as they begin to prepare for the 2023 campaign.
Tyler O’Neill Targeting Cardinals’ Center Field Job
With last year’s trade of Harrison Bader, the Cardinals have less certainty in center field than they have had in a few years. Dylan Carlson got significant playing time there down the stretch and has been seen as the favorite for the job going forward, but he’ll have competition. Tyler O’Neill told reporters, including Lynn Worthy of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, that he has his sights on the job.
“I’d love to play center field,” O’Neill said. “I’m not trying to boot anybody away from that position either, but it’s whatever they deem fit. I know they’re very analytically-driven here. I just want to be the best player that I can be. I’ve worked really hard this offseason at increasing my first-step quickness and making sure my legs can be under me. I believe I can definitely play that position if that’s where they want me.”
It seems as though the club is willing to give him a shot. “(He’s) competing for the center field job,” manager Oliver Marmol said. “He came into camp wanting that. He came up through our minor-league system and actually profiled as a pretty good center fielder. So it’s something that he wants and he’s going to compete for and he’s going to have an opportunity to do.” O’Neill will get a chance to test himself out in competitive games before the MLB season starts, since he’s slated to play center for the Canadian team in the upcoming World Baseball Classic.
O’Neill, 28 in June, will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing season last year, but his 2021 was excellent. In 2021, he hit 34 home runs and stole 15 bases, producing a .286/.352/.560 batting line and a 144 wRC+. Defensively, he played exclusively in left field but got strong marks there, including 11 Defensive Runs Saved, four Outs Above Average and a 6.7 from Ultimate Zone Rating. Given his all-around contributions, he was deemed to be worth 5.6 wins above replacement per the calculations of FanGraphs. That placed him 13th among all position players in the majors, just ahead of guys like Aaron Judge and Jose Altuve.
However, he couldn’t maintain that kind of production in 2022, perhaps due to injuries. A shoulder impingement and hamstring strain each caused stints on the injured list, limiting O’Neill to 96 games on the season. His batting line dropped to .228/.308/.392, wRC+ of 101, with his defensive grades also slipping.
Since center field is considered a more challenging defensive position than the corners, O’Neill could potentially be even more valuable than he was in 2021. Of course, that would be contingent both on his health and his ability to be a viable center fielder. As Marmol mentioned, O’Neill came up playing center in the minors, but it wasn’t much. He logged 55 innings in High-A in 2015, 71 innings in Triple-A in 2017 and then another 50 2/3 innings at that level in 2018, the year he made his major league debut. In the majors, he has 210 2/3 innings there so far, most of that coming last year. It’s hard to get meaningful reads on a limited sample like that, especially because he was hurt at times last year, but he’s at least been around average. Both DRS and OAA have him at an even zero so far, while UZR has him slightly in the positive range at 0.8.
Carlson, 24, got much more center field experience in the minors, including getting around 800 innings at that position in both 2018 and 2019. Since making it to the majors, he’s logged over 1,000 innings in center with solid grades, including 6 DRS and 2 OAA, though UZR has him slightly below average at -1.0.
On the defensive side of things, he’s probably a more straightforward solution for the club, but his offense hasn’t shown the kind of ceiling that O’Neill has. In 312 major league games, he’s hit 29 home runs and stolen eight bases. His .247/.323/.407 batting is just a bit above average with a 103 wRC+.
That kind of production is still strong for a capable defender in center, but if O’Neill is deemed worthy of a shot out there, it could open up other opportunities for the club. They have one of the best prospects in the league in Jordan Walker, though he will probably be best suited for a corner. He came up as a third baseman but only recently started playing the outfield since Nolan Arenado has dibs on the hot corner in St. Louis for years to come. Walker dabbled in center last year but spent far more time in right. He clobbered Double-A pitching last year by hitting .306/.388/.510 for a wRC+ of 128 at the age of 20.
Walker will likely begin the year in Triple-A but his promotion doesn’t seem far off. At some point, the Cards will have to figure out how to juggle the playing time between Walker, O’Neill and Carlson, as well as players like Lars Nootbaar, Juan Yepez and Alec Burleson. The designated hitter slot should be open this year with Albert Pujols now retired, but it seems like there will be a logjam at some point. It’s the proverbial “good problem to have” and inevitable injuries will surely lessen the crowding at some point, but there might be some tough choices for the club to make in the future.
All of their outfield options are still shy of reaching arbitration and come with years of affordable control, except for O’Neill. He has between four and five years of service time and is slated for free agency after 2024.