Click here to read the transcript of tonight’s live baseball chat
Orioles Among 8-9 Teams Interested In Carlos Rodon
Roughly eight or nine teams are known to have interest in Carlos Rodon, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter links). Many of the suitors are already known, as past reports have indicated the Mets, Yankees, Giants, Twins, Dodgers, and Rangers have all checked in on Rodon’s market at different points this offseason. However, Heyman also lists the Orioles as a new name in the mix for the left-hander’s services.
Baltimore has already made one notable rotation move in signing Kyle Gibson to a one-year deal earlier today. Needless to say, signing Rodon would take a much heftier financial commitment, and the first major acquisition of the Orioles’ post-rebuild era. Though past reports suggested that the O’s were wary of shopping at the very top of the pitching market, Rodon might represent something of a bridge between the “top tier” and “secondary tier,” depending on how one would define such players.
Entering his age-30 season, Rodon is considerably younger than either Justin Verlander or Jacob deGrom, so Rodon might make more sense for a young Baltimore team that appears to be just entering its competitive window. As Orioles GM Mike Elias noted last month, the club has “got a lot of interesting starters. But they’re not guys who have a track record of being front-end-of-the-rotation starters.”
Baltimore hopes at least one or two of their young arms can eventually develop into being ace-level pitchers, but waiting on that development might not be too helpful for a team that wants to win in 2023. Gibson has had some quality seasons and was an All-Star just in 2021, but he struggled in his time with the Phillies, and he is more of a veteran innings-eater than a true frontline pitcher.
In other Rodon news, Heyman writes that Texas is still in on the southpaw even after already signing deGrom to a five-year, $185MM deal yesterday. As expected, the Rangers have put a heavy emphasis on rotation upgrades this winter, between signing deGrom, re-signing Martin Perez, and acquiring Jake Odorizzi from the Braves. That trio joins Jon Gray and Dane Dunning in the projected starting five, but the Rangers have been so aggressive over the last two offseasons that it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see them also sign Rodon. In this case, one of Dunning or Odorizzi could become a depth starter or swingman, or potentially even a trade chip.
Both the Mets and Yankees have been linked to Rodon and Verlander, with Heyman tweeting that the two New York teams seem to have differing top choices. Rodon seems to be the Yankees’ chief target, while Verlander seems like the Mets’ preferred option.
Rangers Sign Jacob deGrom To Five-Year Contract
The Rangers have made their huge rotation splash, announcing agreement with Jacob deGrom on a five-year contract. It’s a reported $185MM guarantee, and the deal also includes a full no-trade clause. The VC Sports Group client will make $30MM next season, followed by successive $40MM salaries in 2024-25, $38MM in 2026 and $37MM in 2027.
The contract also contains a conditional option for the 2028 campaign, with salaries dependent on the health of deGrom’s arm over the first four seasons. If the hurler undergoes Tommy John surgery or suffers any elbow or shoulder injury that leads to a 130-day injured list stint within a season or a full calendar year absence over multiple campaigns, a club option would kick in. That’d be valued at $20MM, but it’d jump to $30MM if deGrom posts a top-five Cy Young finish at any point during the deal or tallied a cumulative 625 innings over the next five seasons. It’d go to $37MM if he pitches 725-plus frames or secures three top-five Cy Young finishes.
If deGrom doesn’t suffer the kind of injury that’d trigger the conditional provision, he could vest the 2028 option at $37MM by pitching 160+ innings in ’27 and securing a top-five Cy Young finish. In that case, he’d only need to pass a postseason physical to max out the contract at $222MM over six seasons.
“We are thrilled that Jacob deGrom has decided to become a Texas Ranger,” general manager Chris Young said in the press release. “Over a number of seasons, Jacob has been a standout Major League pitcher, and he gives us a dominant performer at the top of our rotation. One of our primary goals this off-season is to strengthen our starting pitching, and we are adding one of the best.”
It’s the biggest move of the offseason to date and the latest massive free agent strike out of Arlington. The Rangers committed more than a half-billion dollars to the trio of Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray last winter. That was designed to lay the foundation for a full-fledged return to contention in 2023. The Rangers didn’t see their desired steps forward from a win-loss perspective in 2022, largely because of a lackluster rotation behind Gray and Martín Pérez. Texas has suggested they were prepared to attack the top of the market to fortify the biggest weak point on the roster. They’ve done so with a shocking five-year deal for arguably the sport’s best pitcher.
deGrom is one of the most accomplished arms of his generation. While he fell to the ninth round of the 2010 draft and didn’t reach the majors until just shy of his 26th birthday in 2014, he immediately cemented himself as one of the game’s top pitchers. deGrom worked to a 2.69 ERA in his first 22 starts to secure the NL Rookie of the Year award and kick off a career as one of the league’s top hurlers.
The righty posted an ERA between 2.54 and 3.53 in each of the next three seasons, twice receiving down-ballot Cy Young support. Already a borderline ace, he took his game to new heights in 2018. deGrom twirled 217 innings with an MLB-best 1.70 ERA to secure his first Cy Young. The Mets inked him to a $120.5MM extension after that season. He followed up by repeating as the Senior Circuit’s best pitcher, claiming a second Cy Young with a 2.43 mark over 204 innings. He had another dominant season in the abbreviated 2020 campaign, and got off to one of the greatest first halves in history in ’21.
Through his first 15 starts that year, the four-time All-Star posted a microscopic 1.08 ERA while striking out an incredible 45.1% of opposing hitters. He was nagged by some minor health issues throughout the first few months, and that culminated in an injured list stint for forearm tightness right around the All-Star Break. While that wasn’t initially expected to lead to an extended absence, deGrom would wind up missing the remainder of the season. That September, New York president Sandy Alderson said deGrom had been dealing with a low-grade tear in his UCL, an eyebrow-raising assertion considering the right-hander had undergone Tommy John surgery before making his MLB debut. The pitcher refuted that, calling his ligament “perfectly fine.”
After a full offseason, deGrom was expected to return in 2022. Late in Spring Training, he felt some soreness during a between-starts throwing program. He was diagnosed with a stress reaction in his scapula and shut back down, and the injury wound up costing him the first four months of this past season. By the time he returned to the mound in early August, more than a full calendar year had gone by.
With that kind of layoff, one might’ve expected deGrom to show some signs of rust. Instead, he returned as his peak self, immediately dominating opponents yet again. The Stetson product averaged an absurd 98.9 MPH on his fastball and 92.6 MPH on the cutter/slider that serves as his go-to secondary offering. He struck out 42.7% of opponents against a minuscule 3.3% walk percentage. Opposing hitters swung and missed at 21.1% of his total pitches; no other starting pitcher with 50+ innings had a swinging strike rate above 17%. He struck out eight over six innings during his lone playoff start against San Diego.
A three-homer outing in Atlanta to end his season kicked deGrom’s ERA up to 3.08 in his abbreviated season, but there’s little doubt he’s still capable of performing at his top level if healthy. No pitcher on the planet is as dominant as deGrom on a per-start basis. He predictably opted out of the final $32.5MM on his deal with the Mets at the end of the season.
High-upside as this signing can be for the Rangers, there’s certainly plenty of risk in this kind of commitment to a pitcher who lost significant chunks of the past two seasons with arm issues. He’s worked just 162 1/3 innings (including playoffs) since the start of 2021. While deGrom had no control of the prorated season in 2020, he’ll still be expected to shoulder a full rotation workload despite having tossed just 224 1/3 cumulative innings over the last three years.
deGrom turns 35 years old in June. There’s no indication he’s on the verge of any performance regression. Texas’ commitment runs through his age-39 campaign, and there’s the potential for the deal to go sideways if his form tails off later into his 30’s. Now-former teammate Max Scherzer and fellow top free agent Justin Verlander have shown it’s not of the question for a pitcher to remain at peak form as he approaches 40. Neither Scherzer nor Verlander had dealt with the kind of injuries in their mid-30’s that have plagued deGrom, though.
The $185MM guarantee significantly tops MLBTR’s three-year, $135MM prediction at the start of the offseason. It’s the sixth-largest deal for a free agent pitcher in MLB history, trailing those of Gerrit Cole ($324MM), Stephen Strasburg ($245MM), David Price ($217MM), Scherzer ($210MM with the Nationals) and Zack Greinke ($206.5MM). The deal contains a $37MM average annual value that ranks second among any deal in big league history. Only Scherzer’s three-year pact with the Mets — which came out to $43.333MM per season — is higher.
Next year’s $30MM salary will bring Texas’ projected 2023 payroll commitments to around $170MM. That’d be a franchise-record tally for the Rangers, but there’s no indication the organization is planning to curtail spending any time soon. Owner Ray Davis and Young have each indicated there’s room for the club to be active on the open market, and there’s still plenty of work to be done in turning their 68-win roster into a contender in a difficult AL West. Young and skipper Bruce Bochy are each headed into their first full season at the helm, and they’ll expect to break a six-year playoff drought.
deGrom goes to the top of a rotation that brings back Gray and Pérez, who accepted a qualifying offer. The Rangers acquired Jake Odorizzi from the Braves at the start of the offseason, and Dane Dunning is a decent back-of-the-rotation arm. That’s a viable starting five, but the team’s rotation depth is still lacking and they could add another arm from outside the organization. The infield and catcher are in strong shape. Adolis García is the only outfielder who’s guaranteed everyday reps, leaving two spots that could be addressed, and the team figures to add at least one reliever.
The contract contains a $37MM luxury tax hit. The average annual values of a team’s commitments are relevant for competitive balance tax purposes. Signing deGrom brings Texas around $192MM in estimated CBT figures, per Roster Resource, leaving them around $40MM shy of the lowest $233MM threshold.
The Mets will have to rapidly turn the page, bidding farewell to one of the best pitchers in franchise history. New York has also seen Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker and Trevor Williams hit free agency. They’re sure to add to a starting staff led by Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco. Free agency offers a pair of remaining aces in Verlander and Carlos Rodón, and the big-spending Mets have previously been tied to both pitchers. Losing deGrom only figures to increase their urgency to bring in one of those two hurlers, and they’ll need to retain or replace free agent center fielder Brandon Nimmo.
New York receives modest compensation for deGrom’s departure. The team made him a qualifying offer at the start of the offseason, which he rejected. As a team that paid the luxury tax in 2022, New York receives the lowest compensation: a pick after the fourth round of next year’s amateur draft. The Rangers neither paid the luxury tax nor received revenue sharing this year. They’ll therefore surrender their second-highest pick in next year’s draft and forfeit $500K in international signing bonus space. Should they sign another qualified free agent this offseason — both Seager and Semien had turned down a QO last winter — they’d be stripped of their third-highest selection.
Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report deGrom received a $185MM guarantee, and that the deal contained a conditional sixth-year option that could push its value to $222MM. Levi Weaver of the Athletic reported the yearly salary terms. Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reported the details of the 2028 option.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Angels Sign Cesar Valdez To Minor League Contract
The Angels have signed right-hander Cesar Valdez to a minor league deal, ESPN’s Enrique Rojas reports (Twitter link). Valdez receives an invitation to the Angels’ big league Spring Training camp, and he will receive a guaranteed $950K if he makes the active roster.
The veteran righty is back in Anaheim after also signing a minors deal with the Halos last offseason. Valdez only made a single appearance at the MLB level, and was then designated for assignment and subsequently outrighted off the 40-man roster. Pitching much of the season at Triple-A Salt Lake, Valdez had a 3.94 ERA, 21% strikeout rate, and a very strong 3.8% walk rate over 146 1/3 innings, all as a starter.
Though Valdez just got onto that one game with the Angels, it was enough to make it five career MLB seasons for the 37-year-old. He made his debut way back in 2010 with 20 innings for the Diamondbacks, next surfaced in the majors in 2017 with the A’s and Blue Jays, and then didn’t appear in the big leagues again until working out of the Orioles’ bullpen in 2020.
Valdez’s odd career arc (that also includes stops in the Mexican League and the Chinese Professional Baseball League) has seen him move back and forth several times between starter and relief roles, but it would appear he’ll head to the Angels’ camp as rotation depth. Never much of a strikeout pitcher throughout his career, Valdez has relied on grounders to generate outs, and he has a 49.1% groundball rate over his 112 career innings at the Major League level.
Latest On Cardinals’ Free Agent Targets
The Cardinals have yet to have much engagement with the offseason’s top-tier free agents, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. This relates to both starting pitchers and position players, as in regards to the top of the shortstop market, the Cards “have remained on the outskirts of the shortstop discussions, staying aware but not plunging in,” Goold writes.
This isn’t to say the the Cardinals aren’t active, as the team is focusing on its need behind the plate. Cards officials will be meeting with the agents for Willson Contreras and Christian Vazquez, and such other free agent catchers as Omar Narvaez and Mike Zunino have also been explored by the team, as well as trade candidates like the Athletics’ Sean Murphy or any of the Blue Jays’ three backstops.
Catcher is the most pressing need for the Cardinals, so it isn’t surprising that the team might be looking to get its catching situation settled before moving onto other targets. With Adam Wainwright re-sigining and Nolan Arenado passing on his opt-out clause, St. Louis had two major bits of business settled before the offseason even officially began, perhaps giving the team some extra flexibility to proceed a bit more slowly on other matters.
Signing Contreras would certainly count as a headline-grabbing move, as the longtime Cubs catcher is projected to land a four-year, $84MM deal, and would also cost draft pick compensation since he rejected Chicago’s qualifying offer. $84MM would count as the second-biggest contract the Cardinals have ever given to a free agent, behind only Matt Holliday’s $120MM deal from the 2009-10 offseason. That deal was also a re-signing, as Holliday had become a familiar quantity to the Cardinals after spending the last two-plus months of the 2009 season in a St. Louis uniform.
In short, making a big free agent splash usually isn’t the preferred strategy of Cards president of baseball operations John Mozeliak. This obviously doesn’t rule out Contreras altogether, but it might make St. Louis more open to trade talks with the A’s or Jays in the catching search. That said, signing Contreras for just money and a draft pick might be preferable to giving up a big trade package for Murphy, Alejandro Kirk, or Gabriel Moreno.
On the pitching side, the Cardinals are known to be looking at re-signing with Jose Quintana. For the bullpen, the Cards are targeting high-strikeout relievers — as Goold notes, the team is looking to add more swing-and-miss after finishing near the bottom of the league in strikeout percentage. St. Louis is looking at pitching options both in North America and overseas.
Cubs Interested In Dansby Swanson
The Cubs are among the teams with interest in shortstop Dansby Swanson, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network (Twitter link). Chicago has been known to have interest in the free agent shortstop market, though Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts were the shortstops more linked to the Cubs.
Still, with so many other teams keen on landing a top-tier shortstop, it isn’t surprising that the Cubs have at least considered every member of the “big four” — Swanson, Bogaerts, Correa, and Trea Turner. Bogaerts and Correa have stood out from the pack since the Cubs have reportedly had interest in Correa for years, while Bogaerts’ ties to Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer string back to Hoyer’s days in the Red Sox organization.
That said, Swanson naturally has plenty of appeal to any team looking for an upgrade at shortstop. The former first overall pick is coming off the best of his seven MLB seasons, as Swanson had a career-high 6.4 fWAR over 696 plate appearances and the full 162 games with the Braves. Swanson’s contributions came on both offense (.277/.329/.447 with 25 homers and 18 steals) and defense, with his first career Gold Glove and a range of above-average marks from public defensive metrics.
Swanson turns 29 in February, so he is still young enough to be a long-term piece for a Cubs team that might have a few too many roster holes to be a full-fledged contender in 2023, though it depends on how aggressive Chicago plans to be this winter. Like Bogaerts and Turner, Swanson comes at the extra price of draft pick compensation, since all of these three shortstops rejected a qualifying offer (Correa was ineligible for a QO after receiving one last winter). Swanson is the second-youngest of the big four shortstops, though he is generally seen as the member of the group who has the smallest price tag, comparatively speaking. MLBTR projected him for a seven-year, $154MM deal, which still ranks fifth on our top 50 free agents list — Swanson was ranked behind only Aaron Judge and the other three shortstops.
It stands to reason that pretty much every team (i.e. the Phillies, Giants, Orioles, Padres, Red Sox) looking into any of the top shortstops might have some interest in other members of the group, a la the Cubs. That said, the Braves have been the only team known to have a direct interest in Swanson himself, and if Swanson did sign elsewhere, Atlanta isn’t likely to look to Correa, Turner, or Bogaerts as a replacement.
Royals Hire Zach Bove As Assistant Pitching Coach
Zach Bove is the latest new face on the Royals’ coaching staff, as Sports Illustrated’s Pat Ragazzo (Twitter link) reports that Bove is leaving the Twins’ staff to become Kansas City’s new assistant pitching coach. Bove has been in Minnesota for the last four seasons, working in the assistant pitching coordinator role in 2022.
It marks another Royals hire from inside the AL Central, as K.C. just named Brian Sweeney (formerly the Guardians’ bullpen coach) as the team’s new pitching coach earlier this week. Beyond these hirings, the Royals also named Matt Quatraro as their new manager and Paul Hoover is the new bench coach, with both men coming from the Rays organization. Additionally, longtime former Giants coach José Alguacil is coming aboard as the Royals’ new infield coach.
Bove is one of several pitching coaches and coordinators around baseball who came to the majors from the college ranks, as Bove was a pitching coach at the College of Central Florida for seven years before he joined the Twins. With more of a new-school, analytical approach, Bove brings some different perspectives towards the Royals’ stated goal of helping bring their younger pitchers along at the MLB level. Brady Singer pitched well in 2022, but with Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic, and Jackson Kowar all struggling, the Royals haven’t gotten nearly the expected results from the pitchers they thought would be the backbone of the team’s latest rebuild.
Aaron Judge “Increasingly Likely” To Land A Nine-Year Contract
It seems as though teams interested in signing Aaron Judge will have to commit to the slugger for the rest of his 30’s, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that “it appears increasingly likely” that Judge will land nine guaranteed years in his next contract.
It isn’t known if Judge is necessarily prioritizing contract length or a record-setting average annual value, but the reigning MVP might very well have the leverage for both. Mike Trout’s current deal with the Angels is the benchmark ($36MM) in terms of average annual value for position players, so if Judge was looking to top Trout’s record, it would take nine years and more than $324MM.
That isn’t far off MLBTR’s projection of an eight-year, $332MM deal for Judge, which works out to a $41.5MM AAV. If Judge is only looking to top Trout’s average salary whatsoever (rather than by a $5.5MM amount), technically a $332MM deal over nine years would do it. But, it could be that Judge wants to move the goalposts significantly forward for future star free agents.
Going into a ninth guaranteed season (which would be Judge’s age-39 year) might not have much appeal to teams if they’re not getting much or any break on the AAV. That said, Judge is perhaps a unique enough case that any of his big-market suitors might not mind the extra year — if a team is already willing to pay Judge in the $36MM range for his age-38 season, the ninth year might be seen as the cost of doing business.
If a ninth guaranteed season is now the going rate to sign Judge, it could put the Dodgers out of the running. “The Dodgers are believed to want Judge only on a short-term, high-dollar deal,” Rosenthal writes, which matches the club’s general strategy in pursuing any free agents. This isn’t to say that L.A. doesn’t abandon that strategy in certain circumstances, as it was just last winter that Freddie Freeman (heading into his age-32 season) was inked a six-year, $162MM deal. But, with Judge in position to at least double Freeman’s total salary, he might not be a fit for a Dodger team that could devote its resources towards acquiring other star players.
The Dodgers, Giants, and Yankees are the teams publicly linked to Judge’s market, and Rosenthal reports that some other teams have at least checked in on Judge, though it isn’t known if any of these mystery suitors are making a serious push. Last week, reports suggested that New York had made Judge an offer in the range of eight years and $300MM, and the Yankees weren’t viewing that as a final offer. Adding a ninth guaranteed season at the same AAV would result in a nine-year, $337.5MM offer.
Latest On Mets’ Search For Starting Pitching
3:10PM: While the Mets are looking at several free agent pitchers, the New York Post’s Mike Puma tweets that the club is also actively pursuing trade possibilities.
11:30AM: After the Mets saw Jacob deGrom leave for Texas and sign a five-year, $185MM deal with the Rangers, it seems certain they’ll move quickly to find other ways to upgrade their rotation. As Andy Martino of SNY reports, the next best pitcher available, Justin Verlander is now “front and center” for the team, and the team is “determined to land” either Verlander or Carlos Rodon.
The loss of deGrom is surely a tough pill to swallow for the Mets, but after seeing the contract he received from Texas, the opportunity to bring in Verlander on a shorter deal may well appeal to owner Steve Cohen and co. While Verlander is older, and will play the 2023 season at 40, he is coming off a dominant Cy Young-winning season which saw him hurl 175 innings of 1.75 ERA ball, striking out 220 batters in the process.
A potential signing of Verlander would likely come at a higher annual salary than the $37MM deGrom received, but only over a two or three year deal, and it does seem like that is their preferred option for older pitchers. As Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported, their offer to deGrom was around three-years, $120MM. Pivoting to Verlander on a shorter term deal would give them a bit more payroll flexibility over the long term while maintaining the 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation with Max Scherzer that the Mets covet.
While the Mets have shown their financial muscle in recent years, there are other teams interested in Verlander (such as the Yankees and Dodgers) so it’s no guarantee that they land him. In that case, it seems their next option would be Rodon. The left-hander is coming off a strong platform year in San Francisco, where he tossed 178 innings of 2.88 ERA ball with 237 strikeouts.
Rodon is a lot younger than Verlander (he turns 30 in a week) so would likely be looking at a longer term contract. MLBTR predicted he’d land a five-year, $140MM contract, which would give him an AAV of $28MM. While it seems Rodon is their second choice to Verlander, they are very much in on him and met with him on Zoom earlier this week.
While a frontline starter to pair with Scherzer looks to be the top priority for the Mets, Will Sammon of The Athletic adds that they’re looking to also add a starter from the mid-tier of options as well. Martino cites Andrew Heaney, Taijuan Walker, Kyle Gibson, Ross Stripling and Jose Quintana as the main options for the team in that category. Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds that they’ve been talking with Jameson Taillon as well.
Zach Eflin’s three-year, $40MM deal with the Rays came in one year and $18MM higher than MLBTR’s prediction, and does suggest that the market for mid-tier starting pitching could be quite lucrative this year.
The Mets currently have Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco, David Peterson, Tylor Megill and Elieser Hernandez penciled into the rotation. The addition of either Rodon or Verlander plus a solid, mid-tier option would give them a formidable rotation, and allow them to shift two of Megill, Peterson and Hernandez into depth/long-relief roles.
Brewers Sign Eddy Alvarez To Minor League Deal
The Brewers have signed infielder Eddy Alvarez to a minor league deal, according to Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. The deal includes an invite to major league spring training.
Alvarez, 32, played the past season with the Dodgers, appearing in 14 games. He hit just .160/.154/.160 in 27 plate appearances while appearing at four positions. He went far better at Triple-A, where he slashed .322/.439/.554 with eight home runs in 47 games. He logged most of his time at shortstop and second base in the minors, but also spent a little bit of time in the outfield and at third.
Alvarez actually won a silver medal at the 2014 Winter Olympics in speed skating, but opted to chase his baseball dream soon after and signed for the White Sox as a free agent that year. After coming up through their minor league system, he was purchased by the Marlins in 2019 and made his big league debut in 2020.
Across two seasons for the Marlins, Alvarez hit a combined .188/.287/.287 with a single home run in 142 plate appearances before departing as a free agent at the conclusion of the 2021 season.
Alvarez will compete for a bench spot in Milwaukee during the spring, but in any event will provide the Brewers – who recently traded infielder Kolten Wong to Seattle – with a bit of middle infield depth in 2023.
