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The 2021-22 Offseason Begins

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The Braves wrapped up their first World Series title in 26 years tonight, beating the Astros 7-0 to secure a six-game victory. Atlanta’s title wraps up a 162-game season that featured increased fan attendance as the season progressed, a comparatively normal campaign after 2020’s shortened season.

With the 2021 season in the books, the league and its fans turn their attention to another offseason of uncertainty. This time, it’s potential labor strife that looms. With the current collective bargaining agreement set to expire in a little less than a month’s time, there’s seemingly real potential for a work stoppage. The state of discussions between MLB and the Players Association figures to dominate industry headlines over the coming weeks, but the offseason is slated to follow its typical routine at least until the current collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1.

The CBA (or lack thereof) could throw the sport’s post-December 1 calendar into a state of flux. There’s as much uncertainty about how this offseason will progress as any in recent history, then, but here’s how things are currently scheduled to pan out:

November 3: The beginning of a five-day period where teams and players must decide whether to exercise or decline contract options and opt-out clauses for the 2022 season. Eligible free agents cannot sign with anyone but their current team for five more days.

November 7, 4:00 pm CST: The deadline for teams to issue qualifying offers (one-year, $18.4MM contracts) to eligible free agents. For a breakdown of the draft choices teams would forfeit by signing a qualified free agent, see here.

November 8: Free agency officially opens.

November 8-11: General managers’ meetings, hosted in Carlsbad, California.

November 17: Deadline for players tagged with a qualifying offer to accept or reject the QO.

November 19: Deadline for teams to add players to the 40-man roster to keep them from selection in the Rule 5 draft.

December 1, 11:59 pm: Expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement. If MLB and the MLBPA do not agree on a new CBA by then, the league may institute a lockout that freezes teams’ ability to make transactions until negotiations are resolved.

December 2: The deadline for teams to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players.

December 6-9: Winter meetings scheduled to take place in Orlando, Florida.

December 8: Rule 5 draft.

December 15: Conclusion of the 2020-21 international amateur signing period. Typically scheduled to run from July through June, the 2020-21 and 2021-22 international signing periods were delayed to run from January through December as part of MLB’s COVID-19 rules changes.

January 14, 2022: Date for teams and arbitration-eligible players to exchange filing figures. Teams and players are still free to settle and avoid arbitration after this date, although many clubs elect to proceed with a “file-and-trial” strategy — essentially deciding to proceed to a hearing with any players with whom a settlement is not reached by then.

January 15, 2022: The scheduled start of the 2021-22 international amateur signing period. The 2021-22 period is scheduled to run through December 15, 2022.

February 26, 2022: First games of Spring Training.

March 31, 2022: Opening Day.

Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

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The Brewers’ fourth consecutive postseason appearance ended in more October heartbreak, as the Braves eliminated Milwaukee in four games in the NLDS.  As the Brewers look to contend again next season, some tough financial decisions may have to be made depending on how far ownership is willing to stretch the payroll.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Christian Yelich, OF: $188.5MM through 2028 (includes $6.5MM buyout of $20MM mutual option for 2029)
  • Lorenzo Cain, OF: $18MM through 2022
  • Jackie Bradley Jr., OF: $17.5MM in 2022 (includes $8MM buyout of $12MM mutual option for 2023 — Bradley can opt out of $9.5MM salary for 2022, and receives $6.5MM buyout in the event of an opt-out)
  • Freddy Peralta, SP: $12.75MM through 2024 (includes $1.5MM buyout of $8MM club option for 2025; Brewers also hold $8MM club option for 2026 with no buyout)
  • Kolten Wong, 2B: $10MM in 2022 (includes $2MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2023)
  • Josh Lindblom, RP: $2.75MM in 2022 (Brewers outrighted Lindblom off 40-man roster in May)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Much of the Brewers’ buzz early in the offseason has focused on their executives being targeted by the Mets, though New York’s inquiries ended up being much ado about nothing.  The Brewers again denied the Mets permission to speak with president of baseball operations David Stearns, and assistant GM Matt Arnold also removed his name from consideration and ended up with a contract extension to remain in Milwaukee.  This situation is worth monitoring for the future, considering that Stearns’ contract may or may not be up after the 2022 season, depending on a possible vesting option that could extend the Brewers’ control over the PBO through 2023.  With the Mets’ interest looming, there is sure to be plenty of attention paid to Stearns’ status with the Brew Crew, though one would expect owner Mark Attanasio to again look into extending his top baseball exec.

For now, Stearns’ focus is on figuring out how to get Milwaukee to take the next step and reach a World Series.  Offense was a problem for the Brewers even as they had a fairly comfortable run to the NL Central title, and the issue came to a head when the Brewers scored only six runs in their four games with Atlanta.  A change has already been made at hitting coach, but some lineup reinforcements are also a must.

Looking at the more settled positions, Willy Adames, Kolten Wong, and breakout player Luis Urias all hit well in 2021 and have three of the infield spots covered.  All-Star catcher Omar Narvaez slumped badly in the second half but still finished with roughly league-average offense (99 OPS+ and wRC+) for the season, which represents a bounce-back from a brutal 2020 campaign.

Manny Pina hit well enough to make up for some of Narvaez’s late struggles, though Pina is now set for free agency after six years as a part-time starter and backup in Milwaukee.  There is enough need for catching around the league that another team could offer Pina a more regular job, though the 34-year-old could reunite with the Brewers on a new contract if Pina is comfortable in his current role.  If Pina doesn’t re-sign, the Crew will be on the hunt for a new backup catcher, preferably a right-handed hitter considering Narvaez’s lack of production against southpaws.  Prospect Mario Feliciano is also on hand, and Luke Maile could return if tendered a contract.

Eduardo Escobar is another free agent, and is less likely to return considering that Wong and Urias are slated for everyday work at second and third base.  This is another area where the Brewers will be looking for backup options, likely a utility type given the front office’s penchant for versatile players.  Retaining Jace Peterson could help in that regard, and the Brewers could pair Peterson with a right-handed hitter to provide additional coverage on the bench.

Rowdy Tellez was streaky and spent some time on the injured list, but the slugger hit well after being acquired from the Blue Jays in July, and Tellez seems to be penciled in for at least a share of the first base job.  This leaves Daniel Vogelbach as a possible non-tender candidate, as even if the National League has a DH position available in 2022, having both Tellez and Vogelbach as left-handed hitting first base-only players seems like a redundancy.  Tellez is over two years younger than Vogelbach, has an extra year of team control and had better numbers in 2020-21, though Vogelbach did miss a good chunk of last season due to injury.  All things considered, it would seem like the Brewers would favor Tellez over Vogelbach, though with only a $2MM projected salary for Vogelbach, it wouldn’t break the bank to keep him around.

A right-handed complement seems like a necessary add for the first base/DH mix, though Milwaukee is probably still hopeful that Keston Hiura can fill that role from within.  Hiura is only 25 years old and has just 791 MLB plate appearances to his name, and while the Brewers aren’t likely to give up on the former top prospect, adding a more proven veteran seems logical given how badly Hiura has struggled over the last two seasons.  Ideally, the Brewers could find a versatile player who can hit from the right side and fill in at several infield spots (i.e. Josh Harrison, Asdrubal Cabrera, Matt Duffy).  If the team looked to just first base-only types, Milwaukee could be a hypothetical landing spot for Albert Pujols, as odd as it would be to see Pujols on an NL Central team besides the Cardinals.

The outfield is far less set than the infield, even if three outfield starters are technically already in place.  Jackie Bradley Jr. is coming off a rough year at the plate and is sure to exercise his $9.5MM player option for 2022 rather than test free agency.  Lorenzo Cain will return for the final year of his contract, and Christian Yelich’s contract extension will now officially begin, as 2022 is the first season of the seven years and $188.5MM in new money guaranteed under the terms of his deal.

Yelich is the biggest question, as in the two seasons since inking that extension, he’s gone from perennial MVP candidate to only slightly more than a league-average bat — his .234/.360/.392 slash line over 722 PA in 2020-21 translates to a 103 OPS+ and 105 wRC+.  Yelich is still making plenty of hard contact but his power numbers have dwindled, his strikeout rate has risen sharply, and opposing teams have been using the shift much more frequently against him, which has sapped his offensive production.

Cain is another player whose bat has gone south, hitting only .260/.328/.381 in 930 PA since the start of the 2019 season.  Cain opted out for much of the 2020 campaign and sandwiched that lost year between two injury-plagued seasons, so the Brewers simply can’t be sure of what to expect from Cain as he enters his age-36 season.  The same goes for Bradley, who was healthy last year but his offense absolutely cratered in his first year in Milwaukee.

Considering Yelich, Cain, and Bradley are the three highest-paid players on Milwaukee’s payroll, this certainly isn’t a welcome situation for a team with a fairly limited mid-market budget.  The Brew Crew has no recourse but to count on a rebound from Yelich given their long-term commitment, and since Cain and Bradley are still providing superb defense, the Brewers could just go with a Cain/Bradley platoon in center field and give the promising Tyrone Taylor a clear shot at everyday at-bats in right field.

Avisail Garcia was far and away the best hitter in Milwaukee’s 2021 outfield, but he amassed just enough plate appearances to trigger a vesting option in his contract, turning the Brewers’ $12MM club option for 2022 into a mutual option.  It can be reasonably assumed that the team would still want to retain Garcia at that price, though since mutual options are rarely agreed upon by both sides, it seems likely that Garcia will decline his end of the deal and test the free agent market in search of a longer-term commitment.

This leaves a big hole in the Brewers’ lineup, though some scenarios exist where Garcia is back in Milwaukee next year.  Assuming he opts for free agency, the Brewers could then issue a qualifying offer — Garcia might be more open to a one-year deal for an $18.4MM payday than for $12MM.  If Garcia declined the QO, the Brewers could at least recoup a compensatory draft pick if he signed elsewhere.  If Garcia accepted the QO, that puts another hefty salary on the Brewers’ books, but the team could pivot by trying to see what they could get for Cain or Bradley on the trade market.

Cain or Bradley alone would be tough sells as trade chips, unless the Brewers were to take on another team’s unpalatable contract…or if the Brewers paired one of those outfielders with a more sought-after trade asset.  You guessed it, it’s time for another offseason of Josh Hader trade speculation, and packaging the All-Star closer as part of a larger deal would be a bold way for the Crew to both clear some salary space and bring some young talent into the pipeline.

Hader delivered another excellent season, and his salary is now set to jump from $6.675MM to a projected $10MM in his third of four arbitration-eligible years.  That is still quite a reasonable sum for arguably the best reliever in baseball, yet it does represent a big portion of Milwaukee’s payroll, so the time may finally be right for the Brewers to pull the trigger on a Hader deal.

It doesn’t seem likely that the Crew would spend much to replace Hader, as Devin Williams is already the heir apparent at closer and Brent Suter had a nice year as a setup man.  The Brewers have consistently been able to score with inexpensive bullpen additions, so while Brad Boxberger and Hunter Strickland are set for free agency, the club will probably look to fill those gaps and the potential loss of Hader with other lower-level additions.

The bullpen is also supported by one of the sport’s best rotations.  Corbin Burnes will receive Cy Young Award consideration, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta weren’t too far behind, and Eric Lauer, Adrian Houser, and Brett Anderson all provided quality work at the back end.  Anderson is a free agent, so Milwaukee could give youngster Aaron Ashby a longer look as a starter, or bring in another low-cost veteran hurler if Anderson himself isn’t brought back.

Hader is the priciest member of a large Milwaukee arbitration class that projects to top the $40MM threshold, even after subtracting a few non-tender candidates.  Between the arb-eligibles, the players on guaranteed contracts, and the pre-arbitration players, Roster Resource calculates around $112.4MM on the Brewers’ books for 2022.  This already represents the larger Brewers payroll since Attanasio bought the team in 2005, though in 2019 (the last pre-pandemic season), the Brew Crew’s payroll surged to over $132MM by the end of the year.

With 2022 promising to be a more normal year revenue-wise, could ownership green-light another spending bump?  Returning to even 2019’s spending levels would give Stearns some flexibility in making offseason moves, and perhaps allow a decision on Hader’s future to be held off until next winter.  In fact, all those rising arbitration costs for key pitchers could lead to more tough decisions as early as the 2022-23 offseason, so an argument can be made that this roster should be given one last chance to win a championship before the Brewers have to start thinking about parting ways with other core pieces.

This doesn’t necessarily mean that we’ll see another blockbuster move like the Cain signing or Yelich’s extension.  The Brewers have enough talent in place that just a return to form from Yelich in 2022 might be all the club needs to make more noise in the playoffs.  With no guarantee of that scenario, however, expect the team to add at least one big bat to guard against another October power outage.

AL Notes: McKay, Rays, Angels, Rendon, Mariners

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The Rays are expected to receive a fourth option year on left-hander/first baseman Brendan McKay, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. If that indeed proves to be the case, Tampa Bay would be able to option McKay to the minor leagues through the end of next season.

Most players can be optioned for three seasons. After a team exhausts those option years, they have to keep a player on the active roster or remove him from the 40-man roster entirely (thereby allowing other clubs an opportunity to trade for or claim that player off waivers). However, for players who have accrued fewer than five full professional seasons — defined as years with at least ninety days on a major league or minor league active roster — teams may be granted a fourth option year.

Fourth options most often come into play for players who have missed a significant amount of time in their careers on account of injuries. McKay is no exception, as he has barely pitched at any level over the past two seasons. After missing all of 2020 and the first half of this season recovering from shoulder surgery, the southpaw suffered a flexor strain in August that ended his 2021 campaign after just seven minor league outings.

More from the American League:

  • The 2021 season was a disappointment for Angels star Anthony Rendon, who was held to 249 plate appearances by three separate injuries. His season came to a close in early August, when he underwent surgery to repair a right hip impingement. Fortunately, it doesn’t seem that injury is expected to carry over into next season, as Rendon told Grant Paulsen and Kevin Frandsen of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link) this afternoon that he intends to be ready for Spring Training. “That’s the gameplan,” Rendon said. “That was what kind of pushed us to get the surgery done sooner than later. We were dealing with it for the entire year, trying to figure out what was going on and figure out the best way to approach it. … Once we knew where we stood in the standings and whatnot, we needed to knock it out so I could have an entire offseason to be able to get ready for Spring Training. That’s the goal.” The ongoing issues with his hip could certainly offer an explanation for Rendon’s downturn in production. The typically-excellent hitter posted a slightly below-average .240/.329/.382 line, the worst showing of his career at the plate.
  • For the first time in a decade, the Mariners will enter an offseason with some uncertainty at the hot corner. With the club set to buy out longtime third baseman Kyle Seager, Seattle could look to address the position outside the organization. Corey Brock of the Athletic explores the various possibilities, ranging from internal options like Ty France and Abraham Toro to a big-ticket free agent pursuit. Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has spoken a few times about the team’s ability and desire to make some meaningful upgrades to the roster on the free agent market. Dipoto voiced a specific preference for “adaptable” players who have shown an ability to move around the diamond. Kris Bryant and Chris Taylor — each of whom Brock suggests as a speculative possibility for the M’s to target this winter — both have demonstrated the capacity to bounce between multiple positions, including third base.

Latest Mets’ Front Office Rumblings

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As names continue to be bandied about in the Mets’ front office search, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports that Twins assistant general manager Daniel Adler will be staying put. It’s not clear whether Adler had a formal interview. He was previously reported to be “on the Mets’ radar,” but both Heyman and SNY’s Andy Martino suggest that Adler prefers to remain in Minnesota rather than pursue outside opportunities — be it with the Mets or another club.

Adler has spent the past four-plus years in the Twins’ front office. Initially hired as the team’s director of baseball operations, he was bumped up to assistant general manager over the 2019-20 offseason. Prior to being hired by Minnesota, the now 34-year-old Adler spent a few seasons working in research and development with the NFL’s Jacksonville Jaguars.

Apparently, Adler has decided to spend at least one more season with the Twins, although it wouldn’t be a surprise if his name comes up in other executive searches in future offseasons. For now, his decision to stay put removes another candidate for the Mets, whose search for a new baseball operations leader has already seen numerous targets either take themselves out of consideration or not receive permission from their current clubs to interview with New York.

While Adler’s no longer in the running for the position, another candidate has emerged. The Mets are considering Orioles assistant GM Sig Mejdal as part of their ongoing search, report Dan Connolly and Britt Ghiroli of the Athletic (Twitter link), although they caution it’s unclear as of yet whether Mejdal has interest in the position.

Mejdal has spent the past three seasons as an AGM with Baltimore, serving as a top lieutenant for baseball ops leader Mike Elias. Mejdal, 55, followed Elias to the O’s after six years working together in the Astros’ front office. A former NASA biomathematician, Mejdal has been a key member of Elias’ analytics staff in Baltimore.

MLBTR Poll: Will J.D. Martinez Opt Out?

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With all but two teams eliminated and the offseason proper fast approaching, focus across much of baseball has shifted to 2022, particularly given an unusually strong free agent class and an uncertain (and volatile) labor situation. As previously noted by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk, this means the resurfacing of what’s become an annual question: will J.D. Martinez exercise the opt-out clause in his contract with the Red Sox?

This will be Martinez’s third and final opportunity to opt out of the front-loaded five-year/$110MM deal he signed with Boston following the 2017 season. That call was probably never on the table last year, thanks to a less-than-stellar showing (.680 OPS, more than 200 points below his career average) in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. It was a live possibility after 2019, though, when he put together a .304/.383/.557 line on the heels of a monster .330/.402/.629 mark in 2018. He has one year and $19.375MM left on his deal and is essentially a lock to receive a qualifying offer (set for $18.4MM) should he choose to test the market.

Following a bounceback 2021 (.286/.349/.518 in 634 plate appearances) that saw Martinez return to roughly his career averages, the opt-out is again a real option, though it does not come without potential downside. Martinez told WEEI’s Rob Bradford in late September that he’s “right in the middle” on the decision. While it’s entirely possible that his public statements are mere posturing, there are good reasons for Martinez to waffle on a decision that would require him to leave significant guaranteed money on the table without a clear picture of what the market or labor situation are likely to look like. The rumor mill is split on the issue, with Ken Rosenthal suggesting (on the Athletic Baseball Show) that he expects Martinez to exercise the clause while Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe is less convinced, particularly given the uncertain state of the universal DH.

On one hand, the 34-year-old Martinez has an enviable track-record (his .881 career OPS ranks 10th among active players) and proved in 2021 that his bat still has enough pop to make any lineup stronger. Indeed, Martinez’s would-be walk year showed few significant signs of decline; he maintained a K% and BB% (23.7% and 8.7%) roughly in line with both his career marks and MLB averages and a hard-hit rate (defined as the percentage of balls in play with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher) of 49.4% that falls only just below his career mark of 50.8% and well above the MLB average of 38.7%. He also stayed mostly healthy, playing in 148 regular-season and nine postseason games for the Red Sox, though a late-season ankle sprain did keep him out of Boston’s AL Wild Card matchup with the Yankees.

On the other, Martinez’s defensive limitations don’t necessarily limit him to DH-only status but do make it unlikely any team would bank on playing him in the outfield on more than an occasional basis. While he was solid in limited defensive action in 2021 (2 defensive runs saved in 36 games), his career numbers tell a different story (-38 DRS, though 35 of these came in right field), and he hasn’t seen action in the outfield more than 60 times in a season since a poor showing (-18 DRS) across 118 games in right for Detroit in 2016. The probable introduction of the DH to the National League in the new CBA likely expands his market but does little to extend his on-field value.

With significant but mostly one-dimensional production, Martinez’s decision isn’t the easiest. Arguably a top-20 free agent in a strong class, Martinez is likely to receive some multi-year offers, but it’s unlikely many GMs will be eager to give a player with limited defensive value and nearing the back half of his 30s anything remotely approaching the deal he signed with the Red Sox — particularly as it will also cost them a draft pick. Another front-loaded deal is a real possibility, but teams will likely ask Martinez to take a cut in AAV for any significant length.

Accordingly, the question likely comes down to which Martinez values more: his short-term salary or a longer-term guarantee. Will Martinez bet on himself to put up another strong year and hit the market next offseason in a similar situation, or will he try to cash in on his strong 2021 and seek a longer deal?

 

(Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)

Braves Place Adrianza On Postseason Paternity List, Activate Camargo

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Per a Tuesday morning press release, the Braves have placed utilityman Ehire Adrianza on the postseason paternity list and activated infielder Johan Camargo ahead of tonight’s World Series Game 6. MLB rules require that Adrianza spend a minimum of one day and a maximum of three on the paternity list, though the latter will not come into play with the season set to conclude in less than 48 hours. Both players are switch hitters capable of offering serviceable defense at multiple positions.

While neither would be likely to see game action with the series shifting back to an AL park, the move represents a marginal downgrade for the Braves, who had used Adrianza as their top pinch-hitting option in the NLCS (when Jorge Soler was sidelined following a positive COVID test) and a secondary option in the World Series. Though he’s hitless in two at bats against the Astros,  Adrianza did deliver a crucial two-out double ahead of Eddie Rosario’s game-deciding three-run homer in the fourth inning of Game 6 of the NLCS. Camargo, who had been on the Braves’ NLCS roster, is hitless in four trips to the plate so far this postseason.

With time at six positions in 2021 in something of a super-utility role, Adrianza also would have likely represented a top option at a number of positions in the event of an injury. He amassed a .247/.327/.401 across 209 plate appearances in his first season in Atlanta — all of which slightly exceeded his career averages — as he helped to bridge the gap that arose following Ronald Acuña Jr.’s season-ending injury and Marcell Ozuna’s season-ending legal troubles.

Should such a need arise, it may now fall to Camargo, who slashed .272/.349/.457 across 524 plate appearances as the Braves’ primary third baseman during the 2018 season. The 2019 arrival of Josh Donaldson and subsequent emergence of Austin Riley have largely rendered Camargo surplus to requirements in Atlanta, however. He’s struggled mightily since his breakout 2018, slashing a combined .212/.260/.361 (good for a dismal 58 OPS+), and has recorded a meager two walks and zero hits in 18 big-league plate appearances in 2021.

Camargo has mashed in Triple-A (.958 OPS in 436 PAs this year), however, suggesting his struggles with the parent club may be attributable to a small sample size and irregular playing time. He’s also been a significantly better hitter against lefties than righties, posting an .833 OPS hitting from the right side against .700 from the left, but the Braves are still likelier to turn to mid-season pickup Orlando Arcia should a pinch-hitting situation unexpectedly arise.

Still, Camargo does replace some of Adrianza’s positional versatility, potentially enabling Braves’ manager Brian Snitker to pinch-run for a starter in a late-game situation (speedster Terrance Gore is on the roster) without sacrificing too much defensively. All in all, the move is unlikely to amount to much with the DH in play from Game 6 (and a possible Game 7) of the World Series, but it is possible Camargo may be asked to play a role.

Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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After scoring big in last year’s free agent market, the Blue Jays have some major holes to fill as they look to take the next step forward for a playoff berth.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (salary projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • None

Free Agents

Despite winning 91 games, the Blue Jays still finished fourth in the stacked AL East, as the Red Sox and Yankees each won 92 games and earned wild card berths.  While so many things went right for the club in 2021, falling just a game shy of the playoffs leads to a thousand “if only…” scenarios.  Since the division doesn’t figure to get any easier next year, the Blue Jays are now challenged to not only get back to that 91-win threshold, but likely to bank a few more victories and break through to the postseason.

Fortunately for Toronto fans, the Jays already started preparing for 2022 even while in the midst of last year’s pennant race.  Acquiring Jose Berrios, Adam Cimber, and Trevor Richards not only helped the Blue Jays bolster their in-season pitching needs, but all three hurlers came with extra years of control (Berrios through 2022, Cimber/Richards through 2023).  That gave the Jays a jump on solidifying a bullpen that struggled badly in the first half, and Berrios adds another front-of-the-rotation arm to a starting five that might lose two arms to free agency.

Robbie Ray was one of the bargains of the 2020-21 offseason.  The southpaw quickly re-signed with the Jays for a one-year, $8MM pact, and then delivered a season that may yet result in a Cy Young Award.  Steven Matz’s contributions also shouldn’t be overlooked, as Matz battled with his consistency from time to time but still posted a solid 3.82 ERA over 150 2/3 innings.

Bringing back either of these pitchers is a distinct possibility.  Ray will require perhaps the priciest contract given to any free agent pitcher this winter, though he has spoken highly of his time with the Jays and the coaching staff’s help in unlocking this new level of production.  As a common matter of business, Ray will receive and reject a qualifying offer from the Blue Jays, though the team is also reportedly thinking about issuing Matz the QO.  That would be a bold move since $18.4MM is likely well beyond what the Jays would normally feel comfortable giving to Matz in average annual value.  However, if Matz accepted the one-year deal, the Jays could cross one big need off their checklist very early in the offseason.

And, if Matz rejected the QO, that would put the Jays in line for compensatory draft pick.  That would make it as many as three extra picks for Toronto if Matz, Ray, and Marcus Semien all rejected qualifying offers and signed elsewhere.  With this bonus draft-day stockpile, the Jays could feel more comfortable about surrendering another pick in order to ink another “qualified” free agent.  (Caveat: this assumes some type of similar qualifying offer/compensatory pick system will continue to be in place in the next collective bargaining agreement between the league and players.)

Berrios, Hyun Jin Ryu, and rookie star Alek Manoah are currently lined up to fill the top three spots in Toronto’s 2022 rotation.  The Blue Jays hope that Nate Pearson can stay healthy and have a Manoah-esque breakout, though the club might also use Pearson in the bullpen.  Doing so would help to monitor his innings, which could be necessary considering how Pearson has pitched only 187 total innings in five seasons of pro ball.  Ross Stripling will also return to make starts at the back end of the rotation or work as a long reliever, while younger arms like Anthony Kay, Thomas Hatch, or (if he isn’t non-tendered) Trent Thornton provide more starting depth.

If not Ray or Matz, some type of additional help is needed for this rotation mix.  The signings of Ryu and George Springer over the last two seasons are evidence that the Jays are comfortable shopping at the top of the market, so pretty much any member of the free agent starter class is a possibility.  The Jays could target the bigger names, or perhaps go after one big-ticket pitcher and then a lower-tier arm in search of a rebound year (essentially, the next Ray or Matz).

The same could also be true of the bullpen market, though traditionally, the Jays haven’t spent much on relief pitching since Ross Atkins became general manager.  The club’s $5.5MM deal with Kirby Yates last winter counted as a big investment by that standard, yet that contract quickly became a bust since Yates missed the entire year due to Tommy John surgery.

Yates’ bad elbow was one of many injuries that ravaged Toronto’s bullpen early in the season.  While the sheer volume of maladies is maybe unlikely to happen again, Atkins may focus on stockpiling bullpen depth to guard against a repeat scenario.  This could manifest itself in a flood of minor league deals or low-cost MLB deals, or the front office might aim higher on the reliever market and look to someone in the Corey Knebel/Collin McHugh tier to join with Cimber, Richards, Tim Mayza, Julian Merryweather, and closer Jordan Romano.

Besides just free agents, the Blue Jays can always look to add arms via trade.  The Jays has already parted with notable talent (Rowdy Tellez for Richards; top prospects Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson for Berrios) to land pitching, so this is another instance where multiple compensatory picks could factor into the team’s decision-making.  If the Jays know they’ll have two or three extra picks to reload the farm in the next draft, they might be more willing to swap another significant youngster this winter.

It’s probably unlikely that Toronto would move such blue-chip prospects as Gabriel Moreno, Jordan Groshans, or Orelvis Martinez, yet moving Martin a year after drafting him fifth overall also didn’t seem likely until it happened.  If the right controllable star player is available, Atkins has shown that he is willing to take the big plunge on the trade front.  For instance, to land a premium position player like Ketel Marte or (past Jays trade target) Jose Ramirez, the Jays could be more amenable to giving up a major prospect.

Alternatively, trading an infielder like Groshans or Martinez could be more palatable if the Jays knew Semien would be in the fold for years to come.  After betting on himself with a one-year, $18MM deal last winter, Semien hit the jackpot with a huge 45-homer campaign.  With two MVP-caliber performances in his last three seasons, Semien is now set to receive one of the bigger contracts of any free agent this winter, even in an offseason that features so many other elite shortstops.

Of course, Semien didn’t play much shortstop during his year in Toronto, instead working as the everyday second baseman alongside shortstop Bo Bichette.  Since Bichette’s defense improved as the year went on, a Jays/Semien reunion would likely hinge on whether Semien is open to remaining at second base.  Semien has the leverage to call his own shot at this point, so if he is prioritizing a return to shortstop or (as some reports suggest) a return to the West Coast, the Blue Jays may be out of luck.

The Jays’ lineup still has a lot of pop even without Semien.  Bichette, a healthier Springer, Teoscar Hernandez, and MVP candidate Vladimir Guerrero Jr. form a strong nucleus.  Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has shown to be incredibly productive when on one of his hot streaks.  Catchers Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen were similarly up-and-down amid injury-hampered 2021 seasons but still finished as above-average offensive contributors by measure of wRC+.

Santiago Espinal also surprisingly emerged to deliver some quality hitting from the third base position, which helped counter Cavan Biggio’s down year.  Heading into 2022, the Espinal/Biggio combination could work as a platoon at third base or second base, depending on how the Blue Jays fill Semien’s spot.  Espinal can handle either position from a defensive perspective, while a move to second base might be preferable for Biggio since his glovework struggled at the hot corner.  Prospect Otto Lopez is another super-utility option who made his MLB debut in 2021 and could be ready for a longer look on Toronto’s bench next year.

Still, this flexibility allows the Jays to explore all options at either infield position.  They could try to land a longer-term star (e.g. re-signing Semien, trading for Jose Ramirez, signing Corey Seager), or maybe obtain a veteran stopgap (e.g. Kyle Seager) to act as a bridge to Groshans or Martinez.  Signing a multi-position player like Chris Taylor would only further increase their roster’s versatility, but with so many right-handed hitters already in the fold, a lefty or switch-hitter could be preferable.

Without a regular DH on the roster, the Blue Jays have enough space in the lineup to find at-bats for the outfield core of Gurriel, Springer, Hernandez, and Randal Grichuk.  That said, although Grichuk has some power and can at least fill in at all three outfield spots, he also has just 1.5 combined fWAR since the start of the 2019 season.  He seems like an expendable piece if the Jays can find a taker for the $18.66MM remaining on his contract.

Gurriel is cheaper and has more trade value, but he also has more value to the Jays.  Toronto might rue moving Gurriel if he should develop as a consistent hitter in another team’s lineup.  If one of Gurriel or Grichuk was dealt, the Blue Jays could explore re-signing Corey Dickerson, a left-handed bat who hit pretty well after being obtained from the Marlins.

With so many possibilities open to the Blue Jays this winter, it’s worth wondering just how much payroll space will be available to the club.  Toronto has a deep arbitration class that is projected to be worth more than $40MM, factoring in big raises for Berrios, Hernandez, and Guerrero.  Ryu and Springer take up big chunks of the guaranteed money on the books, though overall, the Jays have roughly $112.4MM to $114.5MM (as per Cot’s Baseball Contracts and Roster Resource) committed to their 2022 payroll.

Team president Mark Shapiro has already indicated that the Jays are prepared to spend more next season than they did in 2021, which means an increase from the roughly $140.6MM Roster Resource calculated as the club’s 2021 expenditures.  Not all of these extra funds could be spent specifically in the offseason, as the Blue Jays will likely want to keep some money free for any necessary in-season transactions.  However, since Toronto’s payroll topped the $165MM threshold (as per Cot’s) as recently as 2017, the Jays might have quite a bit of cash on hand to swing transactions assuming ownership is fine with a return to that level of spending.  Acquiring a new high-salaried player or re-signing one of Semien or Ray would alone take up a big portion of those extra funds, so the Blue Jays might look to trim some of their existing costs through trades.

It is also worth noting that Springer is the only player on the books beyond the 2023 season, so the Jays could get creative in signing players to backloaded contracts.  This future salary space will also come in handy as the team starts thinking about extensions.  Berrios is the most pressing concern entering his final year of control, while Hernandez has two years of control remaining.  Some long-term mega-deals will be required if the team hopes to lock up Bichette and especially Guerrero at this point.

The 2021 season has to be considered something of a missed opportunity for the Jays, considering how Semien and Ray performed beyond expectations, Manoah delivered the rookie breakout that was expected for Pearson, and Guerrero emerged as one of baseball’s best hitters.  Still, the team heads into 2022 with a lot of momentum, and a return to normalcy has already been established now that the Jays are officially back in Toronto (as opposed to Buffalo and Dunedin).  The Blue Jays would’ve loved to have cap off that homecoming with some playoff games this October, but they’ll now need to do some work this offseason to make that dream a reality next fall.

Nationals To Name Gary DiSarcina Third Base Coach

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The Nationals are bringing veteran big league coach Gary DiSarcina aboard as their new third base coach, reports Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (Twitter thread). They’re also bringing assistant hitting coach Pat Roessler back in that same role.

The 53-year-old DiSarcina had a 12-year playing career as a shortstop with the Angels, appearing in the big leagues each season from 1989-2000. He spent time in the Halos’ front office and then as a minor league manager in the years following his retirement, but his past eight seasons have been spent on big league coaching staffs.

DiSarcina spent three years as a base coach with the Angels organization before heading to the Red Sox — where he’d previously managed in Triple-A — to serve as bench coach. His next stop came with the Mets, again as a bench coach in 2018, and then as third base coach fort he past three seasons.

Roessler, 61, has been the Nats’ assistant hitting coach in each of the past two seasons. Like DiSarcina, he’d been with the Mets prior to his time in D.C. After a lengthy stint in the Yankees’ player development department (including a run as their farm director), he joined the Mets’ coaching staff in 2015: first as an assistant hitting coach and, by 2018, as their lead hitting coach.

There’s been a fair bit of turnover on the Nationals’ staff already this offseason. Hitting coach Kevin Long departed to take the same job with the division-rival Phillies, prompting the Nats to bring Darnell Coles back to the organization to join the Major League staff in that role. Recently retired outfielder Eric Young Jr. is lined up to serve as the Nationals’ new first base coach, replacing Randy Knorr. DiSarcina will be replacing Bob Henley. Both Knorr and Henley were reassigned to player development roles earlier in the offseason.

Mets Parting Ways With Zack Scott

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The Mets are parting ways with acting general manager Zack Scott, reports Andy Martino of SNY. His tenure in the New York front office lasts a little less than a year, as the Mets hired him away from the Red Sox as an assistant GM last December.

Scott was bumped up to acting general manager a little more than a month later, once then-GM Jared Porter was dismissed after Porter’s prior sexual harassment of a reporter came to light. Scott was in charge of daily baseball operations in Queens for much of this past season, but his own future in the organization came into question when he was arrested and charged with a DWI at the end of August. The Mets placed Scott on administrative leave once his arrest was made public, and that course of events will result in his departure from the organization.

Once Scott was placed on leave, team president Sandy Alderson assumed control of day-to-day baseball ops. Alderson is expected to move back into a broader advisory role — as he initially intended when rejoining the Mets last year — and the club has been on the hunt for a new baseball operations head since the end of the regular season. That search has involved some highly-publicized misses on their early targets (Theo Epstein, David Stearns, and Billy Beane among them), and most recent reports suggest the club has turned their attention to younger, up-and-coming executives with other clubs.

Settling on a baseball operations leader remains the biggest point of order for the Mets to kick off their offseason. Over the summer, it seemed like Scott was a plausible candidate to eventually take hold of that role permanently. But his arrest and subsequent leave placement seemed to foreclose that possibility, and there’d been no indication he was in consideration for the position since the end of the season.

It remains to be seen whether or when Scott will land elsewhere, although that could depend on the resolution of his still-pending legal matter. Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News reported last week that Scott’s trial is set to begin on December 8.

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