Padres Notes: Shortstops, Turner, Stammen
The Padres have been rumored to be a surprise entrant in the market for the “Big Four” shortstops and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic says this could “possibly even” include Trea Turner.
Since the Friars were recently connected to the shortstop market generally and Xander Bogaerts specifically, it’s not shocking that they would have some degree of interest in Turner as well. However, despite the “Big Four” shortstops often being lumped together, there’s a difference between them. MLBTR predicted Turner and Carlos Correa to earn $32MM per season or higher while Bogaerts is projected at an average annual value of $27MM and Dansby Swanson at $22MM.
Those might seem like small differences but they are magnified for a Padres team that paid the competitive balance tax in each of the past two years. The CBT system features escalating penalties for repeat payors, with a third consecutive year over the line resulting in a 50% tax for every dollar over. The Padres currently have a CBT number of $230MM, according to Roster Resource, just $3MM shy of this year’s lowest luxury tax threshold of $233MM. The second threshold is $253MM, something that the Padres would certainly go over if they add one of the top shortstops, at which point their spending would be subject to a 62% tax.
Since the Padres are also looking to upgrade their rotation, it’s always seemed hard to picture them laying out a huge contract for a shortstop and paying such a tax premium to do so. There’s also the on-field fit, which isn’t super smooth since they have Ha-Seong Kim and Fernando Tatis Jr. as shortstop options. It’s been suggested they could add a shortstop and play Kim at second, Jake Cronenworth at first base and Tatis in the outfield, but it’s probably easier to just sign a first baseman or a left fielder.
Elsewhere in Padres news, Rosenthal reports in a separate column that the club is likely to re-sign reliever Craig Stammen. The veteran, who turns 39 in March, recently spoke about his desire to return in 2023 despite dealing with a shoulder injury in the second half of the season. He’s been in San Diego for six seasons now and it seems like there’s interest on both sides in making it seven.
Orioles Claim Lewin Diaz
The Orioles have claimed first baseman Lewin Diaz off waivers from the Pirates, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald (Twitter link).
Diaz, 26, was a fairly high-profile amateur signing by the Twins back in 2013, inking a $1.4MM bonus and headlining their 2013-14 international free agency class. He ranked among Minnesota’s top prospects for several years due to his power potential and a plus glove at first base, but the Twins flipped him to Miami in a 2019 trade that netted them veteran reliever Sergio Romo and pitching prospect Chris Vallimont.
With the Marlins, Diaz elevated his profile early on before scuffling through parts of three Major League auditions. He’s logged big league time each season since 2020 but produced only a .181/.227/.340 batting line with a 28.9% strikeout rate against just a 5.5% walk rate. Despite his 6’4″ frame and considerable raw power potential, Diaz hasn’t yet hit the ball with much authority in the Majors; he does have 13 home runs in 343 plate appearances, but Diaz’s average exit velocity (88.1 mph), barrel rate (8%) and hard-hit rate (32.6%) are all pedestrian, at best. He’s also been quite prone to pop-ups, with more of his fly-balls (14.4%) registering as infield flies than as home runs (11.7%).
That said, Diaz only just turned 26 years old and has at least one demonstrably excellent skill that’ll play at the Major League level: his glove. He’s only logged 753 Major League innings at first base but still has eye-popping totals in Defensive Runs Saved (16) and Outs Above Average (9). The offensive profile is still quite clearly a work in progress, but Diaz is a .250/.325/.504 hitter in two Triple-A seasons.
The Orioles have been looking for a left-handed bat who can play some first base and perhaps in the outfield corners, per MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko. Diaz won’t help in the latter regard, but he’ll give them a lefty bat who can spend some time at first base — if he makes it to Spring Training on the 40-man roster, that is. He’s already been jettisoned from a pair of teams so far this offseason, and it’s possible the O’s consider him a temporary safety net while they continue to hunt for a more established option (as was seemingly the case with the Pirates, who designated Diaz for assignment after signing Carlos Santana).
Diaz is out of minor league options, so he’ll either have to make a team’s Opening Day roster next year or eventually be passed through waivers unclaimed, at which point that team could then stash him Triple-A without committing a 40-man roster spot.
Latest On Mitch Haniger’s Market
Next week’s Winter Meetings are expected to open the floodgates for some hot stove activity, and among the free agents drawing substantial interest leading up to those meetings is longtime Mariners outfielder Mitch Haniger. The 31-year-old (32 next month) has a “robust” market, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan, and colleague Buster Olney tweets that there’s a growing belief he’ll be able to secure a three-year contract — perhaps in the vicinity of $15MM per year.
Haniger has, to this point in the offseason, been linked to each of the Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, Giants, Rangers and the Mariners, who are open to adding another outfielder even after acquiring Teoscar Hernandez from the Blue Jays last month. The Halos’ interest, it should be noted, was reported prior to their acquisition of Hunter Renfroe. It seems likely that move probably put an end to their pursuit of Haniger; the Angels also have Mike Trout and Taylor Ward locked into outfield spots and Shohei Ohtani at DH, of course.
Even presuming the Angels are out of the running, that’d leave at least five teams — and quite likely a few more — in the mix for Haniger, who missed substantial time this season due to a high ankle sprain but has generally been an above-average to excellent hitter when healthy enough to take the field. Dating back to 2017, Haniger boasts a .263/.337/.480 batting line — 24% better than league average by measure of wRC+, which weights for his pitcher-friendly home park. Haniger belted 39 home runs in a season as recently as 2021 and is one of the few outfielders on this offseason’s market who can be viewed as a viable 30-homer threat.
Of course, the knock on Haniger has been his ability to remain on the field — or rather, his lack thereof. Haniger’s 2019 season was cut short when he sustained a ruptured testicle after a poorly placed foul ball off his own bat. Just two months later, while rehabbing from the subsequent surgery, Haniger experienced back discomfort and learned that he’d torn an adductor muscle off the bone. The fallout from that second injury snowballed and ultimately saw Haniger require core muscle/hernia surgery and a microdiscectomy operation.
It was one of the more bizarre and also fluky sequences of injuries for any player in recent memory, but the end result was still a 22-month absence from the playing field for Haniger. He returned with that aforementioned 39-homer campaign, however, and has posted a combined .251/.316/.47o slash with 50 homers in 938 trips to the plate since coming back from that nightmarish run of health troubles. Haniger’s once-premium defensive ratings dipped in 2021, but he posted positive marks in both Defensive Runs Saved (3) and Outs Above Average (2) in this year’s small sample of 396 innings.
Heading into the offseason, MLBTR ranked Haniger 20th on our Top 50 Free Agent list, predicting a three-year contract at an annual rate of $13MM. Olney’s report suggests that Haniger’s market could be reaching if not pushing a bit beyond that level. If interest is indeed ramping up to that extent, it stands to reason that Haniger could be one of many free agents to come off the board during next week’s Winter Meetings or shortly thereafter.
Dodgers Sign Shelby Miller To Major League Deal
December 2: The Dodgers have officially announced the signing of Miller to a one-year, $1.5MM deal.
December 1: Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that the incentives are worth $100K.
November 29: The Dodgers are in agreement with free agent reliever Shelby Miller on a major league contract. The deal, which is pending a physical, reportedly comes with a $1.5MM base salary and additional performance bonuses.
Miller will step right onto the 40-man roster despite not having had much recent MLB experience. He’s made just 17 appearances at the game’s highest level over the last three years. That includes four late-season appearances with the Giants in 2022. Selected onto the big league roster for the season’s final two weeks, he was called upon four times in San Francisco.
The right-hander allowed five runs in seven innings for the Giants, but he struck out 14 while walking just three. That came in spite of a lackluster 8.4% swinging strike rate, but Miller excelled at freezing batters on pitches inside the strike zone. Opponents offered at just over half the would-be strikes he threw, well shy of the 68.8% league average for relievers.
He’s almost certainly not going to maintain that pace over a full season, but he flashed some ability to keep MLB hitters off balance with a pared-down repertoire. Miller featured only two pitches — a low-80s slider and a four-seam that averaged a bit above 94 MPH — during this year’s MLB action. He also found a fair bit of success in the upper minors, striking out an excellent 32.4% of opponents en route to a 3.62 ERA across 32 1/3 frames with the Giants’ top affiliate in Sacramento.
That was enough to intrigue multiple teams. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported last week the 32-year-old had major league offers on the table from two clubs. The Giants weren’t one of them, at least at that time, preferring to give him a Spring Training invitation to compete for a roster spot. Miller won’t have to do so in L.A., as he’ll receive a guaranteed salary and presumably be penciled directly into the big league bullpen. As a player with more than five years of MLB service time, he’ll have to remain in the majors or be designated for assignment. The Dodgers wouldn’t have offered an MLB deal if they didn’t anticipate he’d make the Opening Day roster.
While Miller’s brief MLB work and Triple-A numbers from this past season make him an interesting depth flier, he’s far from a sure thing to cement himself in the middle innings mix for skipper Dave Roberts. Miller has appeared at the MLB level in 10 of the past 11 years — only missing the shortened 2020 campaign — but he’s not found sustained success since 2015. One of the sport’s better young starters during his early days with the Cardinals and Braves, Miller saw his career go off track after the infamous deal that sent him to Arizona and landed Dansby Swanson and Ender Inciarte in Atlanta.
After posting a 6.05 ERA in 20 starts during his debut season with the D-Backs, he lost most of the 2017-18 campaigns rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. He was tattooed for an 8.59 ERA with nearly as many walks as strikeouts in 44 frames for the Rangers in 2019, and it was a similar story during an abbreviated look with the Cubs and Pirates in 2021. All told, he owns a 7.02 ERA in 65 appearances with five teams since the end of the 2015 season. He’s worked almost exclusively in relief for two consecutive years.
Los Angeles relievers posted a 2.87 ERA this past season, the second-lowest mark in the majors. Their 26.7% strikeout rate placed fourth, with Evan Phillips and Yency Almonte breaking out alongside the more established Alex Vesia and Brusdar Graterol as late-inning arms. The Dodgers are also welcoming back Daniel Hudson from a season-ending ACL injury, giving them a decent number of high-upside relief options.
With the potential free agent departures of Craig Kimbrel, Tommy Kahnle and Chris Martin and the likelihood of a lost season for Blake Treinen, L.A. figures to continue trying to stockpile middle innings depth. Even factoring in Miller’s modest salary, Los Angeles has a bit under $153MM in estimated payroll commitments for next season. Finalizing their agreement with Clayton Kershaw is expected to tack on around $20MM to that mark, but there’s still plenty of room for bigger splashes at shortstop and in the starting rotation.
Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Dodgers and Miller were in agreement on a big league contract. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN was first to report it contained a $1.5MM base salary with performance bonuses.
Red Sox Outright Ronaldo Hernandez
The Red Sox announced to reporters, including Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe, that catcher Ronaldo Hernandez has been outrighted to Triple-A Worcester. Their 40-man roster is now at 39.
Hernandez, 25, was a Rays prospect who they added to their 40-man roster prior to the Rule 5 draft in November of 2019. He was acquired by the Red Sox prior to the 2021 season in the deal that sent Jeffrey Springs to Tampa. In his first year in Boston’s system, things went quite well for Hernandez. In 99 games split between Double-A and Triple-A, he hit .284/.326/.501 for a wRC+ of 122. However, he took a step back in 2022, hitting .261/.297/.451 for a wRC+ of 93.
Prospect reports on Hernandez have indicated that his blocking and receiving need some work but his power at the plate continued to draw strong marks. He did still hit 17 long balls this year, but he’s never really been able to draw many walks, as indicated by this year’s 4.8% rate. The Red Sox have long had Christian Vázquez as their primary backstop but traded him to the Astros this year and he’s now a free agent. With the outright of Hernandez, they’re left with Reese McGuire and Connor Wong as the two catchers on their 40-man roster at present.
There had been no public indication that Hernandez had been designated for assignment or placed on waivers but he evidently was passed through in recent days. Hernandez will stick in the organization as depth but without taking up a roster spot. With a spot open, the Sox could potentially be lining up a signing but it also could be with an eye towards next week’s Rule 5 draft. Boston grabbed Garrett Whitlock from the Yankees in the 2020 version of the Rule 5.
Cardinals Interested In José Quintana Reunion
The Cardinals acquired left-hander José Quintana at the deadline and were evidently pleased with their brief relationship with him. Both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Jon Heyman of The New York Post mention that the Cardinals are interested in bringing Quintana back, though Heyman notes that they have competition for his services.
Quintana, 34 in January, endured a rough two-year stretch in 2020 and 2021. A thumb injury limited him to 10 innings in the former and his ERA ballooned up to 6.43 in the latter. The Pirates took a flier on him in 2022 with a $2MM deal to act as a stabilizing veteran force in their rotation of inexperienced youngsters. That plan went about as well as could have been hoped, with Quintana bouncing back and turning himself into a deadline trade chip, going to the Cardinals alongside Chris Stratton for Johan Oviedo and Malcom Nunez.
MLBTR’s Simon Hampton recently took a thorough look at Quintana’s season, which finished with a 2.93 ERA over 165 2/3 innings. Quintana’s 20.2% strikeout rate was a couple of ticks below league average, but his 46.4% ground ball rate was strong. The Cardinals are known for their defensive prowess and Quintana’s grounder-heavy approach worked better after the uniform switch, as he had a 3.50 ERA as a Pirate and 2.01 as a Cardinal.
Though it was just 12 starts, Quintana and the Cards seemed to be a good match for each other. It makes sense that there would be some mutual interest in a reunion, though the roster fit in St. Louis would be imperfect at the moment. The club already has a number of rotation candidates, including Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, Steven Matz and Dakota Hudson, as well as prospects like Matthew Liberatore and Zack Thompson.
Hudson had a poor year in 2022 and could be best utilized as a long man in the bullpen who could jump into the rotation in case of an injury. However, it would be harder to justify bumping any of the other five. Wainwright, Mikolas and Montgomery are all coming off solid seasons and seem to have jobs locked down. Matz had an injury marred season in 2022 but he still has three years and $34MM remaining on the four-year deal he signed with them a year ago. Given their investment, they will surely give him a chance to bounce back with better health going forward. Flaherty has been dealing with injuries over the past three seasons but pitched like an ace when he was last healthy in 2019.
As Rosenthal notes, four of these pitchers are free agents at the end of 2023: Wainwright, Mikolas, Montgomery and Flaherty. As of right now, the 2024 rotation would be Hudson and Matz, with three openings available for prospects to potentially fill. Perhaps that means they would consider signing a starter to help them now and next year, though that would likely mean they have to find a trading partner for one of those other four to create space in the short term.
Even though Quintana’s entering his age-34 season, his bounceback was solid enough that MLBTR predicted a two-year, $24MM contract for him. He’s part of a large group of mid-rotation candidates available in free agency this winter, including Ross Stripling, Nathan Eovaldi, Sean Manaea, Jameson Taillon and others. The market seems to be strong so far, as Tyler Anderson secured a three-year, $39MM deal despite having a qualifying offer attached and Zach Eflin signed a three-year, $40MM deal with the Rays, easily beating our two-year, $22MM prediction. Mike Clevinger got one year and $12MM, just ahead of our $10MM prediction, and Matthew Boyd got $10MM despite not even cracking our top 50. Though the Cardinals clearly like Quintana, the fit is a little awkward and they’re surely not the only team calling him up. The Pirates also reportedly have interest in a reunion and there’s no shortage of sensible fits beyond that. The Cards’ payroll is currently around $154MM, per Roster Resource. That’s almost even with last year’s Opening Day figure of $155MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, though the team’s president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has indicated payroll will be going up this year.
Cardinals, Braves Among Teams That Have Spoken To A’s About Sean Murphy
A’s catcher Sean Murphy stands as one of the likeliest trade candidates of the offseason, and Oakland is unsurprisingly receiving a fairly wide array of interest in the former Gold Glover. The Cardinals have spoken to the A’s about Murphy, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. They’ve also spoken to the Blue Jays about their catching surplus (Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk, Gabriel Moreno), per the report.
Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that even the Braves — a team ostensibly set behind the plate — have checked in with the A’s about the potential asking price. Murphy has also been linked to the Guardians, White Sox, Rays and Red Sox since the offseason began, and there are assuredly others reaching out to the A’s to throw their hat into the mix.
The Cardinals stand as arguably the most obvious on-paper suitor for Murphy. Franchise icon Yadier Molina has formally retired after a 19-year career, and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has been candid about his team’s interest in acquiring a new starting catcher. Backup Andrew Knizner is a .204/.292/.288 hitter in parts of four seasons and thus not likely to step into the starter’s role, and while the Cardinals have a promising young prospect in Ivan Herrera, they’re also a win-now club looking to make the most of the remaining prime years of MVP Paul Goldschmidt and third-place finisher Nolan Arenado.
Much of the same logic would apply to a Cardinals pursuit of a Toronto backstop. Jansen is the most heavily speculated target of the bunch, given that he’s “only” controllable for another two seasons, compared to four for Kirk and six for Moreno, but any catching-hungry team would have varying levels of interest in the whole trio. Goold notes that the Jays have been looking for a young, left-handed-hitting outfielder, which the Cards do possess in Lars Nootbaar and Alec Burleson. To this point, there’s no indication that talks with either Oakland or Toronto have meaningfully advanced.
Turning to the Braves and Murphy, it’s not as clean a fit, nor is it a surprise to see Rosenthal characterize the chances of an actual deal manifesting as “slim.” That said, it’s easy enough to see how Murphy, who’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $3.5MM in his first arbitration season and is controlled through 2025, would still appeal to Atlanta.
William Contreras‘ breakout season at the plate (.278/.354/.506, 20 homers in 376 plate appearances) clearly put him on the map as a potential long-term option, but Contreras’ defensive contributions were far more suspect. He posted negative framing marks according to each of Statcast, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus, and his 14% caught-stealing rate was among the worst in the league. In 955 big league innings behind the plate, Contreras has posted a rather unsightly -11 Defensive Runs Saved.
That’s not to say Atlanta should or would (in the event of a long-shot Murphy acquisition) move on from Contreras, of course. He has more than enough bat to spend considerable time at designated hitter, and the Braves have experimented with getting him some work in the outfield corners. Speculatively speaking, there’d be room to carry Contreras, Murphy and a third catcher, allowing Murphy to take the bulk of the work and Contreras to rotate between DH, catcher and perhaps some corner outfield work.
The Braves have both Travis d’Arnaud and Manny Pina signed through the 2023 season, and they hold a 2024 option on d’Arnaud. Pina played in just five games after signing a two-year, $8MM contract, however, as a wrist injury required season-ending surgery early in the year. Rosenthal suggests that the Braves have gotten some trade interest in Pina this offseason, despite that injury. The 35-year-old has long been a light hitter, but his glovework is well regarded. A team looking for a glove-first backup could certainly consider Pina an intriguing option.
A trade of Murphy to Atlanta feels like far more of a long shot than a conventional fit like the ones in St. Louis, Cleveland, Tampa Bay or Boston, but the mere fact that the Braves are even pondering the possibility underscores the manner in which Murphy is regarded throughout the league. The 28-year-old hit .250/.332/.426 with 18 home runs last season despite playing his home games at the Athletics’ cavernous home park. He slashed .271/.343/.465 on the road. After a so-so start to his 2022 season, Murphy mashed at a .278/.363/.458 slash in his final 409 plate appearances.
By measure of wRC+, Murphy was 22% better than a league-average hitter. Catchers, however, are notoriously below-average hitters on the whole, making Murphy’s contributions all the more impressive. In 2022, the average catcher was 12% worse than the league-average hitter; the gap between Murphy’s bat and that of a garden-variety catcher is enormous.
Adding to the offensive side of his game, Murphy is regarded as a strong defensive backstop. He won a Gold Glove in 2021, has been a plus framer by any publicly available metric, and has nabbed 28% of potential base thieves in his career (including 31% in 2022). That skill set, combined with an affordable 2023 salary and three more seasons of club control, should make him appealing to all but a select few teams with stars entrenched behind the plate. The A’s, squarely in the midst of a rebuild and with prospect Shea Langeliers perhaps ready for a full audition in the Majors, will likely be able command a sizable return for Murphy in the coming weeks or months.
Orioles Checking In On Free Agent Shortstops
This offseason features a group of shortstops often referred to as the “Big Four,” which consists of Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts an Dansby Swanson. While they have been connected in rumors to most of the high-spending clubs around the league, Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that the Orioles have checked in on them. Heyman adds that it’s more likely they invest in starting pitching since their need at shortstop isn’t terribly strong and there are other teams involved, but the interest is noteworthy nonetheless.
The O’s have been deeply committed to a rebuild in recent years and have been among the least active teams in free agency. The last time they gave a free agent a contract longer than one year was to Alex Cobb back in March of 2018. The O’s have endured five straight losing seasons from 2017 to 2021, with the club finishing last in the American League East in all four full, 162-game seasons in that stretch. However, the club turned a corner in 2022, with their young core starting to emerge and helping the club go 83-79. That still only amounted to a fourth-place finish in the division, but they flirted with the postseason race for much of the second half and seem poised to see better results going forward.
On the heels of that step forward, general manager Mike Elias has spoken about going into a more competitive phase of the club’s rebuilding plan, though he has also attempted to temper expectations at the same time. “We’re not going to go from zero miles an hour to 60 miles an hour in one offseason,” Elias said, which would seem to be a coded way of saying that they will be more active than in years past but aren’t planning to suddenly jump to the top of the market.
Still, there are reasons for them to at least hover around the market and keep an eye on it. Just one year ago, Correa didn’t find the long-term deal he was looking for and ended up settling for a three-year deal with high salaries and opt outs after each season. If one of the “Big Four” found themselves in a similar situation this year, the O’s would be a good to try to take advantage of it.
Since the O’s have eschewed spending for so long, their payroll outlook is essentially clear. Their commitments for 2023 are just $41MM, according to Roster Resource, less than what Max Scherzer will make by himself. Despite their recent devotion to skinflintism, they ran payrolls around $150MM from 2016 to 2018 and can surely start inching their way back up there in the coming years. They could easily fit a sizeable contract on their ledger if they really wanted to. Giving out a second year on a contract would be even easier as their commitments for 2024 are exactly zero.
Leaving the financials aside, adding a shortstop also makes sense for pure baseball reasons. Jorge Mateo was the club’s everyday option this year, getting into 150 games on the season. Advanced defensive metrics were all quite fond of his work in the field and he stole 35 bases, but his work at the plate was subpar. He struck out in 27.6% of his plate appearances while walking in just 5.1% of them, finishing with a batting line of .221/.267/.379 and a wRC+ of 82. Mateo is still just 27, turning 28 in June, so it’s possible that he is still developing, but his numbers at Triple-A are fairly similar. His speed and defense still allow him to be a useful player, with FanGraphs calculating his WAR at 2.8 in 2022, but without a development at the plate it’s possible that is his ceiling.
In the long run, things get a bit more crowded since the club has a number of highly-touted middle infield prospects. Gunnar Henderson made his MLB debut in 2022 and played well in his first 34 games. He played mostly third base but could slide back to shortstop if that became the club’s ideal alignment. One of the club’s top prospects, Coby Mayo, is primarily a third baseman and it could make sense to bump Henderson back into the middle infield. Another top prospect, Joey Ortiz, seems poised to jump to the big leagues in 2023. He’s played some second and third base but is primarily a shortstop. Jordan Westburg‘s situation is fairly similar. There’s also Jackson Holliday, just selected with the first overall pick in June. He’s still just 18 years old, turning 19 in two days, but he is hoped to be pushing into the middle infield picture down the line.
Given all those internal options, giving out a contract of $20-30MM over 7-9 years doesn’t seem like the most obvious use of the club’s resources, even if they do have money to spend. If they did consider it, it’s been often pointed out that Elias was with the Astros at the time Correa was drafted and was reportedly personally involved in the club’s decision to select him. He’s surely still quite fond of Correa, but the shortstop isn’t likely to settle for another subpar deal after doing it a year ago. He changed agencies during the lockout, a sign that he wasn’t happy with the way things were going. Though he did settle for a short-term deal last year, it’s long seemed obvious that the plan would be to return to the open market this year and find the kind of contract that will take him through the majority of his remaining career. MLBTR predicted him to land a deal worth $288MM over nine years, or $32MM per season.
The other three shortstops might require less expenditure than Correa, but not much less. MLBTR predicted Turner to get $268MM over eight years, Bogaerts to get $189 over seven years and Swanson $154MM over seven. Even at the lower end, Swanson is projected for $22MM per season. There doesn’t seem to be any shortage of suitors for their services this winter either, as the Phillies, Dodgers, Padres, Braves, Twins, Red Sox, Giants, Cubs and Mariners are some of the clubs to have reported interest in that group. As mentioned, it’s probably more likely that the Orioles devote their resources to starting pitching, with their interest in that market already reported.
The Opener: Winter Meetings, Relief Market, HOF
Here’s what we’re keeping an eye on to wrap up the week…
1. Winter Meetings start this weekend
The Winter Meetings should see a thaw to the frigid hot stove thus far, and the glacial pace with which the offseason has moved should quicken. The annual meetings take place in San Diego this year between Dec. 4-7 and will bring key baseball operations leaders from all 30 teams, agents and media into one place. Several reports have suggested that AL MVP Aaron Judge could make his decision there, which could help to set the star-studded shortstop market in motion. It’ll also be interesting if top starters Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodon find deals. There could well be blockbuster trades as well, with Oakland catcher Sean Murphy among the likeliest players to be moved this offseason. It’s not just deals either; on the 6th we’ll see the first MLB draft lottery, and that’ll be followed by the Rule 5 Draft on the 7th.
2. Relief market set to move?
It certainly seems so, according to ESPN’s Buster Olney. He reports a “sense among some execs that a wave of second-tier is moving fast and on the cusp of landing deals”, citing the likes of Chris Martin and Miguel Castro as players in that group. Martin snuck onto MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents in 47th place, with a predicted deal of two-years, $14MM. As always, there’s plenty of options in middle-relief. Beyond Martin and Castro, the likes of Seth Lugo, Adam Ottavino, Andrew Chafin, Michael Fulmer, Corey Knebel and Mychal Givens (among many others) remain unsigned at this point.
3. Hall of Fame results coming
On Sunday, the 16-member Contemporary Baseball Era Hall of Fame Committee will vote on eight former big league players to be inducted into the Hall of Fame next summer. The contemporary era comprises players who contributed to the game between 1980 and the present day. The eight players are Albert Belle, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Dale Murphy, Rafael Palmeiro and Curt Schilling. Players who receive more than 75% of the vote from the committee will be slated for induction into Cooperstown next July. This announcement runs separate to the usual Baseball Writers’ Association of America Hall of Fame voting, which will be revealed in January.
Significant Gap Remains In Discussions Between Astros, Justin Verlander
The Astros and Justin Verlander remain “far apart” in discussions about a new contract, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The nine-time All-Star is part of a trio of top free agent starters alongside Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodón.
The biggest stumbling block seems to be on the AL Cy Young winner’s desire for a third guaranteed season. Heyman writes that Verlander is seeking a deal around $130MM over three years — the same figure received by former teammate Max Scherzer from the Mets last winter. Houston owner Jim Crane similarly suggested Verlander was pointing to the Scherzer contract as precedent last month.
The Scherzer deal indeed seems the closest comparison to Verlander, although their situations aren’t perfectly analogous. While both are all-time great pitchers still pitching near the top of their games deeper into their careers, a three-year bet on Scherzer was probably easier for a team to stomach than that same term for Verlander. Scherzer signed in advance of his age-37 season, while the latter will be three years older at the start of his next contract. Verlander’s two years removed from a Tommy John procedure that cost him almost all of the 2020-21 campaigns, but he’s bounced back to pitch at pre-surgery levels this year. Scherzer had avoided any injury of that magnitude in the past decade, topping 170 innings in every full season since 2008 before this year.
While that seems to tip things in Scherzer’s favor, their pure performance track records are mostly without complaint. Verlander had a 1.75 ERA across 175 innings this past season; Scherzer posted a 2.46 mark in 2021. The latter missed more bats, striking out 34.1% of opponents against Verlander’s 27.8% mark. Fanning just under 28% of opponents is still excellent for a starting pitcher, though, and Verlander maintained top-tier control while sitting in the mid-90s with his fastball.
Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reported in November that Crane was reluctant to offer more than a two-year deal in the $60-70MM range. That’s shy of the Scherzer deal both by a year and a decent amount of annual salary ($30-35MM versus $43.333MM). It’s unclear if Houston has shown any willingness to raise their proposed salary figure in the few weeks since then, but Heyman reports they’re still opposed to a three-year guarantee.
Were Verlander to leave Houston, he’d draw no shortage of interest from the league’s big-market behemoths. He has already had meetings with the Dodgers and Mets, and Heyman has previously suggested the Yankees are also in the market.