Kyle Finnegan Open To Returning To Detroit
Closer Kyle Finnegan ended up being one of the star acquisitions of the 2025 trade deadline. The right-hander was one of the most dominant relievers in the game after coming over to the Tigers from the Nationals. Finnegan is now a free agent, but he’s open to returning to Detroit, reports Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. “Getting traded over here was big for me. I unlocked a lot of things that will help me moving forward in my career, and that’s a testament to the people that this organization has,” Finnegan said.
Finnegan will officially become a free agent after the World Series wraps up tonight. As Petzold points out, he won’t be eligible to sign with a new team for five days, giving the Tigers an exclusive window to negotiate with him. Finnegan signed a one-year, $6MM deal with Washington last offseason.
Detroit landed Finnegan on July 31, sending righty pitching prospects Josh Randall and R.J. Sales back to Washington. He immediately took the lead in the Tigers’ closer committee, notching saves in his first three appearances. Finnegan didn’t allow a run in his first month with the club. His strikeout rate spiked from 19.6% in 39 innings with the Nationals to 34.8% in 18 innings with the Tigers.
The postseason began as more of the same for Finnegan. He tossed three scoreless innings in the Wild Card round, earning the win in the series clincher. The ALDS didn’t go as smoothly. Finnegan was charged with runs in three of his four appearances against Seattle, including the game-tying tally in the seventh inning of Game 5.
Washington took a flyer on Finnegan as a minor league free agent following the 2019 season. He received a major league deal and soon emerged as a crucial part of their late-inning relief corps. Finnegan piled up 108 saves over the past five seasons with the Nationals. He slammed the door a career-high 38 times in 2024, earning an All-Star nod. Washington surprisingly non-tendered Finnegan after that season, only to bring him back on a one-year pact in February of this year.
Finnegan hasn’t posted shutdown closer numbers, or at least he hadn’t before coming to Detroit. He’s typically been around a strikeout per inning with fine control numbers and a few too many home runs allowed. Even in his standout 2024 campaign, Finnegan ranked in the first percentile for average exit velocity and in the second percentile for hard-hit rate.
Detroit overhauled Finnegan’s pitch mix, having him favor the splitter over the fastball. He used the heater just 40.9% of the time with the Tigers. That number had never been lower than 67.6% for a full season. Finnegan’s swinging-strike rate jumped from a mediocre 9.2% with Washington to an elite 14.3% with Detroit this year.
The new approach might help Finnegan find more suitors in free agency than he did last offseason. He’ll have plenty of competition, though. Devin Williams, Ryan Helsley, and Raisel Iglesias are the big names on the market. Edwin Díaz and Robert Suarez could join them if they opt out of their current contracts. Emilio Pagan, Luke Weaver, and Shawn Armstrong are coming off strong seasons. Kenley Jansen and Kirby Yates have lengthy track records as strong backend relievers.
If Finnegan doesn’t return, Detroit can replace him with several in-house options. Will Vest was effective in a closing role for much of the season, and tag-teamed the job with Finnegan following the trade. Tyler Holton, Brenan Hanifee, and Brant Hurter all had strong seasons in multi-faceted roles. Former closers Jason Foley and Alex Lange remain in the organization. Free agent Tommy Kahnle would be the only other notable bullpen loss if he isn’t re-signed.
Dodgers Notes: Ohtani, Yamamoto, Lineup
Shohei Ohtani is slated to start Game 7 on the mound tonight. The two-way star will be pitching on three days’ rest after tossing six innings in Game 4 on Tuesday. Manager Dave Roberts told reporters, including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, that he’s “not sure” how long Ohtani will pitch. Roberts added that he wants to “withhold expectations and kind of read and react.”
After tearing his left shoulder labrum in the 2024 World Series, Ohtani was brought along slowly as a pitcher this season. He didn’t make his first appearance on the mound until mid-June. Since he’s a crucial part of the offense, Ohtani couldn’t take a few weeks off to go on a rehab assignment. Instead, he had to build back up at the major-league level. Ohtani tossed a single inning in each of his first two appearances. He eventually built up to three innings by the end of July. Ohtani made it through five innings in his final start of August, then capped off his regular season with his first six-inning outing.
Ohtani has had at least five days of rest between every pitching outing this season. The spread-out postseason schedule (along with LA’s success) has afforded him even more time off. Ohtani had 12 days between his NLDS and NLCS starts, then another 10 days until his first World Series outing.
While the workload has been a question for Ohtani, performance has not. He posted a 2.87 ERA across 47 innings in the regular season, and his xFIP (2.45) and SIERA (2.67) were even better. Ohtani rattled off three straight scoreless starts heading into the playoffs. He then posted quality starts in the NLDS and NLCS, winning both games. Toronto did get to Ohtani for four earned runs in Game 3, though he had six strikeouts and went six innings yet again.
Game 7s are typically all-hands-on-deck situations for the pitching staffs. Could that possibly include Yoshinobu Yamamoto? A video from Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times surfaced of the Game 6 victor throwing ahead of tonight’s game. Yamamoto wasn’t expected to be available tonight, but Roberts was asked about his status for Game 7. “He’s definitely interested,” Roberts told reporters, including Alden Gonzalez of ESPN.
Yamamoto followed his dominant complete game in Game 2 with another sterling effort on Friday. He allowed just one earned run over six innings, throwing 96 pitches. Yamamoto now has a 1.56 ERA over 34 2/3 innings this postseason. He would be in the World Series MVP conversation if it weren’t for Ohtani’s impressive contributions. While Yamamoto seems ready to go 2001 Randy Johnson, he’s probably pretty deep on the depth chart tonight. Roberts only had to use relievers Roki Sasaki and Justin Wrobleski in Game 6, plus an inning from starter Tyler Glasnow, though he only threw three pitches. Every other pitcher, including Game 5 starter Blake Snell, has had at least a couple of days off.
Roberts is largely running back the same lineup tonight, outside of flip-flopping Max Muncy and Teoscar Hernandez. That means Mookie Betts is back in the cleanup spot. Roberts bumped the scuffling Betts from second to third in the order for Game 5, then moved him to fourth for Game 6. The move paid off, as Betts came through with the biggest hit of the game. With the bases loaded and two outs in the third inning, the shortstop lined a Kevin Gausman fastball through the left side, knocking in a pair of runs. Betts had been 3-for-24 in the series prior to the single. It was his first RBI since Game 3 of the NLCS.
Muncy will move up to fifth in the order for the second time this series. Both instances have come against Max Scherzer. While righties got on at a higher clip against Scherzer this season, lefties had far more power. The veteran yielded 13 home runs and a hefty .545 slugging percentage in 200 plate appearances against left-handed hitters. The lineup adjustment will allow Muncy to get an earlier look at Scherzer.
Justin Willard “Emerging As The Favorite” For Mets’ Pitching Coach Job
The Mets may be zeroing in on a replacement for Jeremy Hefner. Red Sox director of pitching Justin Willard is “emerging as the favorite” for the position, reports Will Sammon of The Athletic. Joel Sherman of the New York Post seconded Sammon’s report, writing that Willard is “poised to be named the Mets pitching coach.”
Willard has been with Boston since November 2024. He had previously worked in Minnesota as a pitching coach and coordinator. Willard got his coaching start in the college ranks, first as a graduate assistant at Concord University. He then spent seven years as an assistant coach and recruiting coordinator at Radford University.
Boston brought in Willard to improve the organization’s pitching development. In a story written by Ian Browne of MLB.com ahead of his first season with the team, Willard said he has a “really simple” approach when it comes to his pitching philosophy. “Throw nasty stuff in the zone. You can have nasty stuff, but it’s not gonna be maximized if you’re not in the zone.” That plan could play well in New York. The Mets’ pitching staff ranked fourth in Stuff+ in 2025, but had the sixth-highest walk rate. The club finished 18th in ERA.
New York made a slew of coaching changes this offseason, including moving on from Hefner. He had spent the past six seasons with the team. After ranking 22nd in ERA in his first season, the Mets improved to ninth and then seventh under Hefner. They’ve been 15th or worse the past three years.
If he lands the gig, Willard will have plenty to work with in 2026. Top prospect Nolan McLean debuted in August and excelled over eight starts. He leads a young core that also includes Jonah Tong, Brandon Sproat, and Christian Scott. New York’s rotation was buoyed by veterans David Peterson, Clay Holmes, and Sean Manaea. The trio struggled over the final couple of months of the season as New York coughed up a playoff spot, but they should be reliable sources of innings next year until the youngsters can take over.
The main task for Willard, if he were to be hired, might be to get Kodai Senga back on track. The NPB import dominated in his first MLB season in 2023, posting a sub-3.00 ERA to go with a 29.1% strikeout rate. Shoulder and calf injuries cost Senga nearly all of 2024, but he looked to have returned to ace status to begin 2025. Senga allowed two earned runs or fewer in 12 of his first 13 starts to open the season. A hamstring injury cost him a month of action, and he couldn’t regain his form upon return. Senga stumbled to a 5.90 ERA over his final nine starts of the season. His walk rate ballooned to 12.7%. Miami tagged Senga for five earned runs on the final day of August, and New York demoted the struggling starter to Triple-A. Senga will likely be back with the big-league club in 2026, but he’ll need to perform better to hold on to his spot.
Giants Chairman Greg Johnson Discusses Team Spending
Giants chairman Greg Johnson discussed several topics in an interview with John Shea of the San Francisco Standard, including some talk about how the team plans to spend this winter. As usual with any upper-level executive, Johnson spoke in generalities about payroll rather than citing any specific figures, and downplayed the idea of any huge spending splashes. For instance, while Johnson cited “starting pitching help” as “probably No. 1 on the list” of offseason priorities, he said the Giants would “be very cautious about” signing a pitcher to a nine-figure contract.
As to whether or not the Giants would exceed the threshold of $200MM in spending, “it just depends on what’s out there. We may be over. We may be under,” Johnson said. “We’re going to look at each situation and make the decision and see how it fits into not only next year, but the longer-term plans.”
San Francisco has exceeded the Competitive Balance Tax line four times in their history. They paid the tax in each of the 2015-17 seasons, as a function of the rising costs associated with trying to keep their championship core from the early 10’s teams together. The club also narrowly exceeded the tax line in 2024, as a function of the Giants making a series of pricey acquisitions during the 2023-24 offseason.
In 2025, the Giants ducked back under the tax line, even after some more prominent moves — i.e. extending Matt Chapman, signing Willy Adames to a seven-year/$182MM free agent deal, and their June trade for Rafael Devers. Even with these salaries involved plus major commitments to Logan Webb, Jung Hoo Lee, and Robbie Ray, San Francisco’s books are relatively clean since almost all of the team’s money is tied into just these six players. Ray is also a free agent next winter, leaving more space open for longer-term commitments even though Johnson is wary of such contracts.
“We can go up [in spending], but I think the risk is having too many people on similar six-year-type deals that create less flexibility to the payroll,” Johnson said. “I think you can always do things on a shorter basis, but you’ve got to be careful about having too many of your players being late 30s at a high-payroll level. I think you have to balance that.”
San Francisco fans may not love hearing about ownership’s financial caution, yet pretty much any owner or front office executive would share Johnson’s concerns on overspending now on players who could soon be future albatrosses. This was, in fact, the very situation the Giants found themselves in during their previous highest-spending years, once some of the key players from their World Series teams started to decline.
There’s also the fact that the Giants are far enough under that $200MM line that there’s room for the team to spend rather substantially this winter while still remaining under the threshold. Cot’s Baseball Contracts estimates the Giants at roughly a $152.7MM payroll and a $182MM tax figure for 2026, while RosterResource‘s estimates are a bit higher ($169.3MM payroll and a $192.4MM tax number).
Whichever estimate you prefer, Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey figures to have financial flexibility in pursuing more big-ticket targets this winter. Upgrading the pitching staff (not to mention the team’s other needs) likely won’t come cheap, and with just one winning record in their last nine seasons, the Giants figure to again be very active in trying to get back into contention.
Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox finally made it back to the postseason this year, though their third place finish in the AL East and a quick exit in the Wild Card Series at the hands of the Yankees leaves fans hoping for more in 2026.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Garrett Crochet, LHP: $166MM through 2031 (deal includes conditional $15MM club option for 2032; can opt out after 2030)
- Roman Anthony, OF: $125MM through 2033 (deal includes $30MM club option for 2034)
- Brayan Bello, RHP: $50.5MM through 2029 (includes $1MM buyout on $21MM club option for 2030)
- Kristian Campbell, 2B/OF: $47MM through 2032 (includes $4MM buyout on $19MM club option for 2033, deal includes $21MM club option for 2034)
- Ceddanne Rafaela, OF/2B: $46MM through 2031 (includes $4MM buyout on $16MM club option for 2032)
- Masataka Yoshida, DH: $36MM through 2027
- Jordan Hicks, RHP: $24MM through 2027
- Aroldis Chapman, LHP: $13.3MM through 2026 (includes $300K buyout on $13MM vesting option for 2027)
- Patrick Sandoval, LHP: $12.75MM through 2026
- Garrett Whitlock, RHP: $8.25MM through 2026 (includes $1MM buyout on $8.25MM club option for 2027, deal includes $10.5MM club option for 2028)
Option Decisions:
- Alex Bregman, 3B: Will opt out of $80MM through 2027 ($40MM deferred)
- Trevor Story, SS: Can opt out of final $50MM through 2027. If opt out exercised, Red Sox can either void it by exercising $25MM club option or pay Story a $5MM buyout.
- Lucas Giolito, RHP: $19MM mutual option with $1.5MM buyout.
- Liam Hendriks, RHP: $12MM mutual option with $2MM buyout.
- Jarren Duran, OF: $8MM club option with $100K buyout. Eligible for arbitration if option is declined.
Total 2026 commitments: $168.9MM
Total future commitments: $662.4MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Nathaniel Lowe (5.145): $13.5MM
- Tanner Houck (4.100): $3.95MM
- Jarren Duran (3.155): $8.4MM (if club option declined)
- Kutter Crawford (3.136): $2.75MM
- Romy Gonzalez (3.083): $1.8MM
- Connor Wong (3.079): $1.6MM
- Triston Casas (3.032): $1.7MM
- Josh Winckowski: (3.003): $800K
- Brennan Bernardino (2.150): $1.1MM
- Non-tender candidates: Lowe, Houck, Wong, Winckowski
Free Agents
Much of Boston's offseason will be dictated by the opt out decisions made by the left side of the club's infield. Alex Bregman is already expected to opt out of his contract and return to the open market, but it's not yet clear whether or not Trevor Story will follow in those footsteps. With no locked in starter at second base and chief baseball officer Craig Breslow unwilling to commit to Triston Casas at first base for next year, it's not impossible to imagine a scenario where the Red Sox are looking to reshape their entire infield as they look for defensive upgrades.
At the very least, they'll need to either re-sign or replace Bregman. Re-signing the veteran coming off his third career All-Star appearance may prove to be the most sensible course of action. While he'll be seeking a true long-term deal this winter as he heads into his age-32 campaign, it would be difficult to find the sort of production Bregman offers elsewhere. Just three third basemen (Jose Ramirez, Junior Caminero, and Isaac Paredes) posted a higher wRC+ than Bregman's 125 this year, and Fangraphs' Def metric pegs Bregman as the seventh-most valuable defensive third baseman in baseball this year despite a quad injury limiting him to just 114 games.
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MLBTR Chat Transcript
Mark P
- Almost seven and a half months after the Dodgers and Cubs squared off in Tokyo, the 2025 MLB season will officially end today.* But, almost as importantly as Game 7, it’s also time for the final Weekend Chat of the 2025 season!
*= I guess it could technically end on November 2 if Game 7 goes past midnight, but what are the chances the Dodgers and Blue Jays play some crazy extra-inn…..oh wait
World Series Prediction
- Who you got? Blue Jays win 4-3 or Dodgers steal the show?
Mark P
-
Who wins Game 7?
Blue Jays (65.3% | 548 votes)Dodgers (34.6% | 290 votes)
Total Votes: 838
AA
- Do I sign cease or king this offseason?
Mark P
- Leaning towards no, since the Braves under Anthopoulos haven’t pursued longer-term pitching contracts. Cease is also a Boras client, and AA generally doesn’t do business with Boras on a free agent level.
King is an interesting option for a somewhat shorter-term contract with opt-outs involved. It depends on how his market shapes up since there’s still a very good chance he lands a big multi-year deal anyway, but if he doesn’t want to fully commit himself after a shortened 2025 season, he and his reps might be open to more creative contracts. This might open the door to a team like Atlanta to get involved.
Hang over
- So will the first day of free agency be crazy after the World Series is completed? Which teams do you see making the most waves?
Mark P
- Free agency doesn’t begin until five days after the final game of the WS. The offseason in general starts immediately, however, so I’d expect a lot of news on options being exercised/declined, maybe a couple of trades, maybe the Padres/Rockies/Braves announce their new manager or GM, etc.
Dean
- Who’s the splashiest surprise (ala Eflin, HSK) FA signing you could see the Rays making? Realmuto?
Mark P
- It’s hard to see the Rays outbidding Philly for Realmuto. I can also assume that Realmuto probably feels the Phillies are closer to winning in 2026 than the Rays are, so that’s not likely to be an option for him.
Projecting free agent moves for Tampa is difficult since when they do strike, it tends to be somewhat out of nowhere. Nobody saw them as suitors for Kim, for instance. Bringing in an Eflin type of innings-eater might be a good move this winter due to the injury uncertainties in their rotation.
BrianM
- Does Pete resign with the Mets?
Mark P
- Leaning towards no. I think it took a particular set of circumstances to reunite Alonso and the Mets last winter, and it feels like the Mets only have a certain price point for Alonso in mind. Coming off a much better platform season, Alonso likely isn’t in the mood to take any kind of shorter-term pact this time around.
Santiago Espinal Elects Free Agency
TODAY: As expected, Espinal rejected the outright assignment and chose to become a free agent, the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Gordon Wittenmyer reports.
OCTOBER 31: The Reds announced today that infielder Santiago Espinal has been sent outright to Triple-A Louisville. That indicates he cleared waivers in recent days. He has the right to elect free agency and will presumably do so in the coming days.
It’s common for clubs to clear roster space at this time of year. The offseason will begin in the coming days, which means the injured list goes away. Players on the 60-day IL will need to retake roster spots, though some players are also heading to free agency. The Reds don’t have a super tight roster crunch at the moment. RosterResource pegs them at 38 guys for the start of the winter, though picking up options on Brent Suter and Scott Barlow could have got them back up to 40. Espinal’s removal drops them to 37, not including Suter or Barlow.
Even if the Reds don’t strictly need a roster spot right now, there’s value in opening one. Perhaps some interesting players will be put on waivers by other clubs in the coming days. The Reds will also presumably want to add a few players to the roster to protect them from being selected in the Rule 5 draft.
Espinal wasn’t going to be long for the roster anyway. His performance has been declining for a while now. He could have been retained for the 2026 season via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a $2.9MM salary, but the Reds were going to non-tender him.
The infielder had some decent results with the Blue Jays a few years ago, even making the All-Star team in 2022, but he hasn’t done much since then. He has stepped to the plate 973 times in the past three years with a combined .245/.298/.325 line and 71 wRC+. That includes a .243/.292/.282 line and 58 wRC+ in 2025.
At his best, Espinal can play multiple positions while hitting lefties. As recently as last year, though his overall offense was poor, he slashed .289/.344/.491 for a 122 wRC+ against southpaws. He was still better against lefties in 2025 but hit only .265/.317/.342 for a wRC+ of 81.
Assuming he elects free agency, Espinal could get interest from clubs for a bench/utility role, either on a minor league pact or a modest big league deal. He has experience at all four infield spots as well as the outfield corners.
Photo courtesy of Rick Osentoski, Imagn Images
Kris Bryant Still Bothered By Back Pain, Not Considering Retirement
Kris Bryant has played in only 170 games over his four seasons with the Rockies, and the 2025 campaign saw Bryant appear in just 10 games before his recurring back issues brought his season to an early close. Lumbar degenerative disc disease has left Bryant feeling pain while performing basically every baseball activity not related to swinging, and the former NL MVP told the Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders, and this discomfort has now extended to his day-to-day life.
“It’s exhausting for me waking up and hoping to feel [better],” Bryant said. “I can’t tell you the last time I woke up feeling I’m in a good spot….If you asked me two or three months ago, I would say [my back pain] was not affecting my everyday life. But now it is, which is really annoying to me because usually when you kind of just rest, it’s supposed to get better. So maybe I’m at a point where I should just do a bunch of stuff to see if that helps me.”
Bryant has already explored multiple avenues to try and fix his back, including an ablation procedure last May. He isn’t currently doing any baseball activities, as Rockies head trainer Keith Dugger has Bryant on a regular Pilates regiment in order to help reinforce his core. However, it remains to be seen if this treatment or anything will be able to get Bryant back on a path to regular on-field action, which is still his goal.
“That’s the thing that eats at me the most. It’s tough to describe,” Bryant said. “I’ve played this game for 30 years now, not professionally, of course, but it’s all I have ever known….But watching the playoffs and seeing some of my friends still playing, that gives me the motivation to try and play. So I don’t have those conversations [about retirement], thank goodness, because I don’t want to. I just want to be a baseball player.”
Three years and $78MM remain on the seven-year, $182MM free agent deal that Bryant signed with Colorado during the 2021-22 offseason. The signing can unfortunately be considered one of the biggest misfires in free agent history, given how little has Bryant has played, and his lack of production when he has played (.244/.324/.370 and 17 home runs over 712 plate appearances in a Rox uniform). The Rockies’ horrific 231-417 record over the last four seasons is far from Bryant’s fault alone, yet his contract has become somewhat symbolic of this low point in the franchise’s history.
A pivot point may be coming since the Rockies are searching for a new head of baseball operations, and focusing on external candidates in an attempt to finally bring some fresh ideas and new perspectives into the organization. Given the lack of progress with Bryant, it is hard to call his situation a top priority for the incoming new executive, as there seemingly isn’t much to do besides hope that Bryant can get healthy enough to play.
Working out a deferred payment plan for the remainder of the contract may be the eventual outcome for Bryant and the Rockies, since he naturally isn’t going to retire outright and walk away from the money still owed. However, Bryant (who turns 34 in January) isn’t ready to pursue that avenue yet, and only he knows when enough will be enough from a physical and mental standpoint.
Orioles Sign Luis Vazquez To Major League Contract
The Orioles announced that infielder Luis Vazquez was signed to a Major League contract for the 2026 season. Vazquez was already controlled for 2026 as a pre-arbitration player, but this transaction gives Vazquez a bit more roster security (for now) and probably gives him a small bump over the minimum salary was slated to earn next year.
The signing bears some similarities to Baltimore’s deal with Rico Garcia, which was also announced on Thursday. In essence, Vazquez’s big league deal and Garcia’s split contract are meant to deter teams from claiming either player on waivers, should the Orioles designate either for assignment this winter. The two situations aren’t exactly similar since Vazquez has minor league options remaining while Garcia is out of options, but both players can reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency should they get DFA’ed and then outrighted off the 40-man roster.
Vazquez (who turned 26 last month) came to the Orioles from the Cubs in a cash transaction last January, and then was designated and outrighted off Baltimore’s roster just a week later. His contract was selected by the O’s in June, and he ended up appearing in 32 MLB games in 2025, with a .160/.208/.240 slash line to show for 53 plate appearances. Vazquez did hit his first big league home run, which ended up being the game-winning run in the Orioles’ 3-2 win over the Astros on August 24.
Known as an excellent defender, Vazquez might be able to carve out a bench spot in the Show on his glovework alone, and he’ll get some consideration for the Orioles’ utility infield position during Spring Training. However, he’ll have to deliver something more at the plate than his .404 OPS over 67 career big league plate appearances. His work at Triple-A has been much more respectable, as Vazquez has hit .252/.340/.408 over 839 career PA with the Cubs’ and Orioles’ top affiliates.
Latest On Lucas Giolito
Right-hander Lucas Giolito had a pretty good year with the Red Sox in 2025 but it ended on a frustrating note as he wasn’t included on Boston’s postseason roster due to an elbow injury. Even before the Sox were eliminated, manager Alex Cora said Giolito was most likely not going to be coming back this year. Today, Chris Cotillo of MassLive provided an update on the righty’s status. Giolito has been on a throwing program with one source telling Cotillo that Giolito is “100%” while another source said Giolito is “making improvements.”
Giolito’s status is noteworthy at this stage of the offseason as he is about to return to free agency. He originally signed with the Red Sox ahead of the 2024 season, a two-year deal worth $38.5MM. Giolito had a chance to opt out of that deal after 2024 but he ended up missing that entire season due to UCL surgery, so he naturally decided to stay with Boston for the second season.
By foregoing that opt-out chance, he gave the Red Sox a $14MM club option for 2026. However, he could convert that to a $19MM mutual option by pitching 140 frames in 2025. He got to 145 frames this year, successfully converting it. Mutual options are almost never picked up by both sides, with the last instance being more than a decade ago at this point. As such, Giolito will almost certainly get the $1.5MM buyout instead.
There’s a long winter ahead but Giolito’s health in the near term is important. As pointed out by Cotillo, the Sox have until five days after the World Series to decide whether or not to issue Giolito a qualifying offer, which is a one-year deal worth $22.025MM. That’s roughly what the Sox have been paying Giolito annually on his two-year deal, so it’s not a huge spike.
However, there are reasons why the Sox may not feel comfortable with continuing to pay Giolito a salary in that range. The obvious one is the elbow. It has been previously reported that Giolito has no UCL damage but does have flexor irritation and a bone issue. If the Sox felt that injury could linger into 2026, then they may prefer to walk away.
The other issue is Giolito’s performance. The Sox initially bought low on him. He was a borderline ace a few years ago, earning Cy Young votes in three straight years from 2019 to 2021. But his ERA spiked to just under 5.00 in both 2022 and 2023. Even in those poor seasons, he struck out more than 25% of batters faced. That was a drop from his peak, when he was striking out around 33% of opponents, but it was still above average.
In 2025, Giolito managed to finish strong in the ERA department but without getting his strikeouts back. He had a solid 3.41 ERA for the year overall. He had a rough 6.42 ERA through seven starts but then an excellent 2.51 ERA over his final 19 starts. However, even in that latter sample, he was only punching out 20.3% of opponents. For reference, the average strikeout rate for a starting pitcher in 2025 was 21.8%. That figure is probably inflated a bit by the use of openers, but Giolito’s rate is still fairly middling.
The other issue is that the reward for making a QO may be lesser than in the past. The Sox got the 75th overall pick in the 2025 draft when Nick Pivetta rejected a QO and signed with the Padres last offseason, but that was after a year in which the Sox did not pay the competitive balance tax. Both RosterResource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts estimate that the Sox went slightly over the tax line in 2025. Those are unofficial estimates, but if they are accurate, then the QO compensation pick would fall to after the fourth round of the draft if Giolito were to reject a QO and sign elsewhere.
Giolito likely would have started a playoff game for the Sox if he were healthy. He and Brayan Bello were the most established options behind ace Garrett Crochet. Instead, Bello and rookie Connelly Early made starts alongside Crochet. Cotillo suggests the Sox are quite happy with Giolito, including as a veteran clubhouse leader. Even with some concerning numbers and the lesser benefit from making the QO, perhaps they will do it anyway if they would be happy for him to accept. Though even if they like Giolito, they may not want to tie up $22.025MM of their budget just as the offseason is beginning, especially if Giolito’s elbow is still an issue.
A bit of progress in the next few days could increase Boston’s willingness to issue the QO. It may also increase his willingness to turn it down and explore the market. Even if they do offer it, he gets a couple of weeks to talk to other teams and gauge his market before making his decision on the QO. His market with non-Boston teams will depend both upon his health and whether or not he is attached to a QO.
Photo courtesy of Eric Canha, Imagn Images