Glenn Sparkman Agrees To Sign With KBO’s Lotte Giants
Right-hander Glenn Sparkman has agreed to sign with the Lotte Giants of the Korea Baseball Organization, according to Naver Sports (hat tip to reporter Sung Min Kim). The deal will be official once Sparkman passes a physical.
This is the second straight year that Sparkman has signed with an international team. He inked a deal with the Orix Buffaloes of Nippon Professional Baseball last June, but posted only a 6.88 ERA over 17 innings. Before heading to Japan, Sparkman had signed a minor league deal with the Twins, but didn’t see any time on the active roster before being released last May.
A veteran of four Major League seasons, Sparkman posted a 5.99 ERA with the Blue Jays and Royals from 2017-2020, tossing all but one of his 180 1/3 career MLB frames in a Kansas City uniform. Despite an underwhelming ERA and strikeout totals as a big leaguer, Sparkman has been much more solid in the minors, with a 2.88 ERA and a 22.85 K% over 378 2/3 frames, though most of his bigger strikeout rates came prior to his 2015 Tommy John surgery.
With numbers suggesting a “Quad-A” type of career arc to date, Sparkman has a chance to re-invent himself in the KBO, and at least bank some guaranteed salary at a time when many free agents in a similar position are waiting out the lockout. Sparkman doesn’t turn 30 until May, so a solid performance with the Giants could open some new doors for a return to MLB next winter, or perhaps more lucrative opportunities pitching in South Korea or Japan.
Transaction Retrospection: Alex Rodriguez Signs With The Rangers
Alex Rodriguez makes his debut on the Hall of Fame ballot this winter, and given all of the PED-related controversy that surrounded his career, it remains to be seen if he will ever end up with a plaque in Cooperstown. His fate will ultimately be determined by how the writers (and, quite possibly, future veterans committees) view these off-the-field actions, whereas for the average HOF candidate, discussions usually just center around the numbers.
In terms of pure statistics, Rodriguez more than qualifies for induction. And yet beyond the 696 home runs, 14 All-Star appearances, and three MVP awards, one number has defined Rodriguez’s career — $252,000,000.
It was on this day in 2000 that Rodriguez dropped a bombshell on the sports world by signing a ten-year, $252MM free agent contract with the Rangers. It was far and away the largest contract ever signed in pro sports, let alone in MLB. (Just a few days before Rodriguez’s deal, Mike Hampton inked an eight-year, $121MM deal with the Rockies that briefly stood as the biggest contract in baseball history.) Even 21 years later, A-Rod’s Rangers contract is still the twelfth-richest contract ever signed in baseball.
To be clear, there was no doubt that Rodriguez was going to land some sort of record-setting deal that winter. The first overall pick of the 1993 draft had done nothing but live to that lofty status over his first seven seasons, hitting .309/.374/.561 with 189 home runs over 3515 plate appearances with the Mariners. Besides being a five-tool player, Rodriguez also had youth on his side, as he hit the open market when he was only 25 years old. A team could reasonably count on A-Rod to continue posting superstar-level numbers over at least the next decade, which only helped agent Scott Boras’ case that his client deserved a unique type of contract.
But for an eye-popping $252MM number, a unique type of bidder was needed. Enter the Rangers. Tom Hicks purchased the team in June 1998, and while Texas won AL West titles in both 1998 and 1999, they were swept out of the ALDS in both years. After the Rangers stumbled to a 71-91 record in 2000, Hicks felt a major shakeup was required, and that included an unprecedented splurge on the top free agent available.
As you might expect, the reactions to Rodriguez’s signing ranged somewhere between wonder and outrage. Many felt it was a sign of irresponsible spending, as then-Astros GM Gerry Hunsicker described the contract as “The sooner we run this up the flagpole, the sooner we get to D-Day and a catastrophic event” for competitive balance in baseball.
This viewpoint also extended to the Commissioner’s Office. MLB’s executive VP of baseball operations Sandy Alderson said he was “sort of stupefied” by Rodriguez’s deal, as “we have effectively doubled the previous most lucrative contract in two days. I don’t like the exponentiality of all of that. We have a straight-up trend that doesn’t augur well. To me, it’s incredible.
“For every Texas, there are five teams like Oakland who traded their second baseman, let go of their starting right fielder and saw their No. 2 pitcher sign a $40 million contract as a free agent with another team. I suggest you ask the players on teams such as that whether this game is as healthy as this signing suggests.”
There is no small amount of irony in these comments some 21 years later, on several levels. Firstly, Athletics fans are undoubtedly sighing deeply over the fact that both now and then, their team’s “cycle” of roster reloads has continued to spin. Secondly, competitive balance continues to be a cornerstone issue between players and owners amidst the current lockout, though one of the primary concerns on the MLBPA’s side is that larger-market teams aren’t spending enough, and that the league’s mechanisms to ostensibly protect competitive balance (draft bonus pools, luxury tax penalties, draft pick compensation for free agents, etc.) are driving salaries down.
And, Alderson himself is now president of the Mets, working for an aggressive owner in Steve Cohen who has — like Hicks in 2000 — shown himself to be unfazed by signing precedents. Since Alderson returned to the Mets in September 2020, New York has already signed Francisco Lindor to a ten-year, $341MM contract extension, and set a new record for average annual value by signing Max Scherzer to a three-year, $130MM pact. (In another ironic twist, an ownership group led by Rodriguez and ex-fiancee Jennifer Lopez were among the strongest bidders for the Mets last year before Cohen ultimately bought the club.)
In hindsight, the critics were technically right, in that signing Rodriguez didn’t help the Rangers to any success on the field. Texas didn’t enjoy a single winning record in Rodriguez’s three years with the club, and Hicks came to see A-Rod’s deal as a payroll albatross. Of course, the issue was more due to the lack of talent Texas built around Rodriguez, rather than what Rodriguez was doing himself. A-Rod held up his end of the contract with the Rangers, hitting .305/.395/.615 with 156 homers over his three seasons in Arlington and capturing AL MVP honors in 2003.
By February 2004, Rodriguez’s tenure with the Rangers was already over, as he was dealt to the Yankees in a blockbuster swap in exchange for Alfonso Soriano, Joaquin Arias, and (possibly most importantly) $112MM of the $179MM that remained on A-Rod’s deal. This trade came about only after an earlier proposed trade with the Red Sox was vetoed by the MLBPA since Rodriguez would have been giving up $28MM in salary, and thus A-Rod found himself in the Bronx.
As it happens, Rodriguez is actually still receiving money from the Rangers to this day, via deferred payments from his original contract and re-brokered in the wake of the Rangers filing for bankruptcy in 2010. What was once seen as a transformative signing in the franchise’s history ultimately became something of an expensive footnote, and even a cautionary tale. It’s one thing to sign a can’t-miss superstar (even at a $252MM price tag), but quite another to keep making canny roster moves to make sure that superstar’s prime years aren’t being wasted.
It is a lesson that the current Rangers front office surely has in the back of their minds as they embark on another spending spree. In the wake of five consecutive losing seasons and a pared-down payroll, Texas has zoomed back to prominence this winter by landing Jon Gray (four years, $56MM), Marcus Semien (seven years, $175MM) and, biggest of all, Corey Seager for 10 years and $325MM. That’s another star shortstop on another 10-year deal, except with $73MM more in guaranteed money. Texas fans can only hope that the “Transaction Retrospection” MLBTR is writing about the Seager contract in 21 years’ time carries many more references to World Series championships, rather than the sour feelings left behind by the A-Rod deal.
AL Central Notes: Moncada, Gausman, Tigers, Arias, Guardians
Second base stands out as the most glaring area of need in the White Sox lineup, yet the idea of moving Yoan Moncada back to the keystone doesn’t seem too likely, NBC Sports Chicago’s Vinnie Duber opines. Moncada began his career with regular second base duty in 2017-18, yet has played exclusively as a third baseman over the last three seasons, posting very solid defensive numbers along the way. Beyond just the improved glovework, the position change also seemed to spark Moncada towards better numbers at the plate. As White Sox GM Rick Hahn told Duber and other reporters last month, Moncada is “a pretty darn good third baseman. He’s comfortable there….I don’t know if you want to upset the apple cart of something that’s working.”
That said, Hahn also twice said “never say never” about the possibility of a Moncada position change. The logic would be that the White Sox could be able to address a third base vacancy more easily than their second base vacancy, as many of the winter’s top available second basemen are already off the market. Moncada also wouldn’t have to stay at second base forever, if the Sox acquired a third baseman on a relatively short-term deal. Hypothetically, Kyle Seager could be open to a one-year deal to join a contender, or a trade candidate like the Athletics’ Matt Chapman is under team control only through 2023.
More from around the AL Central…
- The Tigers had interest in Kevin Gausman before the right-hander signed with the Blue Jays, ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes. Detroit hadn’t previously been linked to Gausman, though given how aggressively the Tigers courted the pitching market, it isn’t surprising that they checked in on his services as part of their broad search for arms. That search has already resulted in one major pitching signing, as Detroit signed lefty Eduardo Rodriguez to a five-year, $77MM pact.
- Gabriel Arias is an intriguing prospect in the Guardians‘ farm system, and ranked by MLB Pipeline as the 82nd-best minor leaguer in all of baseball. Since the Guardians have several other notable middle infield options both on the active roster and in the minors, Cleveland.com’s Paul Hoynes and Joe Noga wonder if Arias might be a viable trade chip, if the team ultimately prefers other players as their ideal shortstop/second baseman of the future. Traditionally, Cleveland has been more apt to keep its top prospects rather than move them in deals, and yet between both the middle infield depth and the Guardians’ more glaring need for outfield help, the situation could be right for the club to move a prospect of Arias’ caliber. The 21-year-old Arias has already been part of one major trade in his young career, as he was one of the six players sent by the Padres to Cleveland in the Mike Clevinger deal in August 2020.
Latest On Athletics’ Manager Search
TODAY: Espada’s interview has taken place, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link).
DECEMBER 6: In addition to the recently-documented Matt Quatraro, The Athletic’s Britt Ghiroli verified five other managerial candidates for the vacant Oakland skipper position. Included in the current group of candidates are a number of names already within the Oakland organization— third base coach Mark Kotsay, bullpen coach Marcus Jensen, and hitting coach Darren Bush. Rounding out the group are Boston bench coach Will Venable and Houston bench coach Joe Espada. Half of the group (Quatraro, Kotsay, and Venable) has already interviewed, with the remaining half expected to interview soon.
After 11 seasons of .528 ball under Bob Melvin, it makes sense for Oakland brass to look to Melvin’s cohorts for a successor. Kotsay is likely the most familiar name among the internal candidates, as he is a 17-year veteran and played for seven different teams during his lengthy career. Dating back to 2014 Kotsay has assumed a number of Major League roles, accumulating the titles of hitting coach, bench coach, quality control coach, and third base coach. Kotsay is light on managerial experience but is no stranger to the managerial rumor mill, being linked to recent searches conducted by Houston, Boston, and Detroit.
A former catcher, Jensen was no stranger to the big leagues either, appearing in 7 Major League seasons for as many teams. Jensen has been in the Oakland organization since 2007, serving as a hitting coach and manager for several of Oakland’s minor league affiliates. He’s served as an A’s coach at the game’s highest level since 2014.
Bush is a baseball veteran as well, though has seen a notable chunk of his playing and coaching days come on the indie ball circuit. Since joining Oakland’s minor league ranks as a coach in 2004, Bush has accrued a good deal of managerial experience at the lower levels. His consistent success as a minor league manager led to a Major League promotion, where Bush has served as a bullpen or hitting coach since 2013.
Like Kotsay, Espada has been a fixture in managerial candidate discussions for years. The Houston coach and former second-rounder has seen his fair share of success over the past four years, recently piquing the interest of the Giants, Rangers, and Cubs.
Venable is a veteran of 9 Major League seasons, including an impressive 20-20 campaign in 2013 for the Padres. Since his retirement, Venable has worked in advisory and coaching positions for the Chicago Cubs. Venable hopped over to the Red Sox organization in 2020 and served as the bench coach for this year’s resurgent Boston club. Like others on this list, Venable has turned heads as a potential manager for years, drawing interviews for recent Houston and San Francisco vacancies.
AL Notes: Astros, Blue Jays, Orioles
Alex Bregman is preparing for a move to shortstop, should the Astros have a need, the third baseman told Michael Schwab on his podcast. Houston has not indicated a willingness to move Bregman, and in fact, GM James Click recently said that moving Bregman was not something they were considering. Still, it doesn’t hurt for Bregman to offer. We have seen a trend lately of third basemen moving up the defensive spectrum as players like Mike Moustakas and Travis Shaw have seen time at second and Eugenio Suarez tried his hand at shortstop. These moves were hardly universal success stories, however, so it’s likely Bregman remains at the hot corner when the 2022 season opens.
In other rumblings from around the American League…
- Like Bregman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was adamant last winter about his willingness to move up the defensive spectrum. Ultimately, Vladdy spent all of two innings at the hot corner in 2021. Recent rumors have again suggesting moving Vlad to third in order to accommodate a totally hypothetical Freddie Freeman signing, but that’s not something the Blue Jays have discussed with their young star, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. There would be other ways to accommodate a Freeman signing, but at least for now it seems their interest in Freeman was more due diligence than earnest sales pitch.
- The Orioles signed five pitchers to minor league deals, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Bryan Bautista, 17, Raynel Duran, 18, Wilton Rondon, 19, Darwin Caballero, 21, and Noelin Cuevas, 19, will start the 2022 season in the Orioles’ organization. The Orioles continue to be one of the most pitching-needy organizations in the game, so while adding a handful of minor league free agents hardly qualifies as a game-changer, it’s a positive data point nonetheless. These five were all international free agents who will join the lowest level of Baltimore’s system, notes Kubatko.
Andrew Romine Announces Retirement
Andrew Romine has announced his retirement from baseball with a post on Instagram.
Romine was a fifth round pick out of Arizona State University by the Angels back in 2007. The 34-year-old infielder played 11 years in the Majors, appearing in 609 big league games for the Angels, Tigers, Mariners, Rangers, and Cubs. His most prolific period came in Detroit, where he was a regular from 2014 to 2017.
Romine wasn’t exactly a thunderbolt at the plate, but he was a capable defender and a plus on the base paths. Defensively, Romine can claim the rare distinction of having literally done it all. He appeared in at least one game at all nine defensive positions, though he was primarily an infielder. He took the mound eight times, and for one third of an inning back in 2017, he even suited up behind the plate for the Tigers.
This past season, Andrew appeared in 26 games, slashing .183/.234/.267 in 64 plate appearances with the Cubs. Never known as a slugger, Romine put his stamp on the season back on August 6th, hitting a 3-run, game-tying home run off Craig Kimbrel in the bottom of the ninth inning. Though the Cubs ultimately lost that game, it was just Kimbrel’s third appearance on the south side and the beginning of a difficult half season with the White Sox. It was just Romine’s 11th career home run across a total 1,391 career plate appearances.
For Romine, the blast was a thrilling moment in an eventful final season in the bigs. Romine got to play alongside his younger brother, Austin Romine, in Chicago. The brothers played alongside one another for the first time in their professional lives.
The MLBTR staff would like to extend a heartfelt congratulations to Andrew for a successful pro career and wish him the best of luck in whatever comes next.
Kyle Keller Signs With Hanshin Tigers
Former Pirates right-hander Kyle Keller has signed a deal to join the Hanshin Tigers of Nippon Professional Baseball in Japan, MLBTR has learned. Keller is expected to compete for closer responsibilities with the Tigers.
The 28-year-old Louisiana native spent the 2021 season with the Pirates, logging a career-high 33 1/3 innings over 32 appearances with a 6.48 ERA/6.95 FIP. Keller had previously seen time in the Majors with the Angels in 2020 and the Marlins in 2019.
Keller was originally an 18th round draft choice of the Marlins back in the 2015 draft. After making his Major League debut in 2019 in 10 outings with a 3.38 ERA as a 26-year-old, he was traded the following winter to the Angels for Jose Estrada. The Pirates purchased his contract in April of this past season. After shuttling between the Majors and Triple-A, he was released to free agency in November.
The Hanshin Tigers will give Keller high-leverage opportunities. That might surprise at first blush given his 2021 numbers, but Keller fared much better in Triple-A, where he posted an impressive 1.96 ERA in 18 1/3 innings. Combined, Keller struck out 30.0 percent of opposing batters while walking 11.1 percent of batters, suggesting he certainly has the potential to be a potent arm if he can limit free passes.
Keller combines a 94.5 mph heater with a hook that generated a strong 34.7 percent Whiff rate. He mixes the two offerings fairly evenly to lefties and righties. He has been prone to keeping the ball up in the air, generating just a 29.9 percent groundball rate in his Major League career.
Identifying A Potential Trade Chip In Miami
The Marlins are said to be looking to boost their lineup this winter after finishing 29th in runs scored in 2021. They’ve begun the process by signing Avisail Garcia, but Garcia doesn’t so much fill a void as add to an arsenal of right-handed power bats. Among the players whose playing time is made complicated by the addition of Garcia is the oft-injured Garrett Cooper.
Cooper recently posted video of himself on Twitter taking batting practice for the first time in four months. Cooper spent the final 77 days of the regular season on the injured list because of an elbow sprain. A back strain landed him on the injured list for 17 days prior to that. The Marlins maintain two years of team control over Cooper, who turns 31 on Christmas.
The Marlins missed his bat in the lineup, as the 30-year-old slashed a robust .284/.380/.465 in 250 plate appearances when he was healthy. That kind of production is exactly what the Marlins need, especially at the minor cost of $3MM, his projected arbitration salary for 2022.
Cooper is one of many options the Marlins have for first base, the outfield corners, and designated hitter, should there be one in the National League. Cooper has slashed .279/.355/.451 in 842 plate appearances over four years with the Marlins, providing production 19 percent better than average – but struggling to stay healthy.
Finding regular playing time shouldn’t be a problem, but Cooper doesn’t run particularly well, and because he’s right-handed, he doesn’t necessarily platoon all that well with Brian Anderson, Jesus Aguilar, or Garcia. He could, however, serve as the short-side platoon partner for Jesus Sanchez in left field, should the Marlins decide to give the lefty regular run opposite Garcia.
The job isn’t Sanchez’s yet, however, as there are still a number of free agent options on the market, including Kyle Schwarber, whom the Marlins explored a deal with before the lockout. The Marlins have also talked to the Diamondbacks about acquiring Ketel Marte, though that would require quite the prospect haul.
Cooper could ultimately be used as trade bait given his duplicative skill set in Miami. His age and injury history would limit any potential return, but if he’s healthy now, he could absolutely be of interest to someone in need of a right-handed bat. Cooper’s versatility, two years of control, and productivity at the plate make him a relatively valuable resource for a contender on a tight budget.
Still, for now it would have to be considered counterproductive for the Marlins to move one of their more potent bats unless they can fill a hole elsewhere in the lineup with part of the return. If not, there are still plenty of at-bats to go around in Miami, so long as Cooper can stay healthy.
White Sox Sign Brandon Finnegan To Minor League Deal
The White Sox have signed lefty Brandon Finnegan to a minor league contract.
Chicago will look to unlock Finnegan, who hasn’t appeared in the Majors since 2018. And yet, Finnegan is still just 28 years old. Remember, he debuted with the Royals at the tender age of 21, working out of the bullpen for the Royals as they won the pennant in 2014. He made seven appearances out of the pen during that playoff run.
Finnegan was shipped off the Cincinnati as part of the package for Johnny Cueto the next season, however. He was converted into a full-time starter for the 2016 season, making 31 starts and tossing 172 innings with a 3.98 ERA/5.19 FIP, good for 2.1 rWAR. He made just nine total starts over the next two years, however, and hasn’t returned to the Majors since. From 2014 to 2018, he posted an overall 4.11 ERA/5.12 FIP over 260 2/3 innings with the Royals and Reds.
This past season, Finnegan converted back into a reliever, spending the entire season with the Reds’ Triple-A affiliate in Louisville. Finnegan logged 55 1/3 innings with a 5.53 ERA, never getting a call-up to return to Cincy.
Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks
2021 was a Murphy’s law season for the Diamondbacks, who entered the year expecting to at least hang around in the Wild Card race. Instead, they dealt with myriad injuries, saw some typically reliable veterans take steps back, and had perhaps the game’s worst bullpen. The result: a 52-110 record that calls the franchise’s entire direction into question.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Madison Bumgarner, LHP: $60MM through 2024 ($10MM between 2022-23 deferred until after the contract’s expiration)
- Nick Ahmed, SS: $18.25MM through 2023
- Mark Melancon, RHP: $14MM through 2023 (including $2MM buyout on $5MM mutual option for 2024)
- Ketel Marte, 2B: $9.4MM through 2022 (including $1MM buyout on $10MM club option for 2023; contract also contains $12MM club option for 2024)
- David Peralta, LF: $7.5MM through 2022
- Merrill Kelly, RHP: $5.25MM through 2022
Total 2022 commitments: $58.025MM
Projected Salaries for Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Carson Kelly — $3MM
- Luke Weaver — $2.7MM
- Christian Walker — $2.7MM
- Caleb Smith — $2.1MM
- Noé Ramirez — $1.8MM
- Jordan Luplow – $1.5MM
- J.B. Wendelken — $900K
Option Decisions
- Exercised $5.25MM club option on RHP Merrill Kelly
- Declined $9MM club option on RF Kole Calhoun (paid $2MM buyout)
- Team declined its end of $3.5MM mutual option on RHP Tyler Clippard (paid $500K buyout)
Free Agents
- Kole Calhoun, Tyler Clippard, Taylor Clarke, Jon Duplantier, Chris Devenski, Henry Ramos, Brandyn Sittinger, Ildemaro Vargas, Jordan Weems
Unlike a few other teams near the bottom of the standings, the Diamondbacks have not been rebuilding. Arizona went 85-77 with a +70 run differential in 2019. That winter, they signed Kole Calhoun and brought back most of the position player core. They stumbled to a 25-35 finish in 2020, but it was fair to largely write that off as an anomalous down season in a shortened schedule.
That’s no longer the case, as they’re coming off an NL-worst showing over a full season. Some of that can be attributed to tough injury luck, particularly in a starting rotation that lost all four of its top members for a month or more at some point during the year. Yet even pristine health wouldn’t have had the D-Backs anywhere near the Giants and Dodgers at the top of the NL West, leaving the front office with plenty of questions about how to get back to where they were a couple years ago.
That won’t take the form of a leadership change, at least not at the top. The club signed manager Torey Lovullo to a one-year extension in September, locking him in for a sixth season at the helm. They did overhaul Lovullo’s coaching staff, including the hiring of highly respected pitching coach Brent Strom. But it’ll be Lovullo leading the clubhouse for the franchise’s hopeful turnaround.
Based on the comments of the team’s top executives and their early-offseason actions, it doesn’t seem that’ll take the form of a massive rebuild. General manager Mike Hazen pushed back against the notion of a teardown numerous times during the year, and he largely reiterated that stance after the season. “This isn’t a situation, for me, where we are relying on a series of top-five draft picks to get us back into a position where we should be,” he told reporters in October. “That’s my opinion.”
Hazen’s top lieutenant, assistant GM Amiel Sawdaye, largely echoed that sentiment at last month’s GM Meetings. “We go into every season with the idea that we want to put the best possible team out there that’s going to go out and compete,” Sawdaye said. “I don’t think we ever wave the white flag and say, ‘Well, we’re going to give up on ’22.”
Both Hazen and Sawdaye suggested the D-Backs would remain open to trade offers on long-term players, but neither exec sounded enamored with that possibility. Arizona held onto players like Ketel Marte, Carson Kelly and Josh Rojas at the trade deadline, a time when Hazen expressed a desire to anchor the club’s next competitive window around a few marquee contributors.
There’ll surely be robust interest in all those players, as well as in staff ace Zac Gallen. The Marlins, for instance, have already been tied to Marte this winter. Yet there’s also no urgency for the D-Backs to pull the trigger on a deal unless they’re completely overwhelmed with a prospect package or leaning into a full rebuild. The latter option doesn’t seem to be on the table, so teams will need to bowl Arizona over to land anyone from that group, each of whom is controllable for at least three more seasons (barring changes to the service time structure in the next CBA).
It seems likely the Diamondbacks will keep their young core intact heading into 2022, but trades of veteran role players remain a possibility. The Snakes may not want to punt next season entirely, but it’s also clear they’re facing an uphill battle competing in a division with two of baseball’s top teams and a third (the Padres) with one of the more star-studded rosters in the league. So a moderate sell-off with an eye towards 2023 and beyond figures to be the middle ground in which they settle.
Starter Merrill Kelly and left fielder David Peralta are both entering the final seasons of their contracts. Kelly, who’ll make an affordable $5.25MM, should be of particular interest to more immediate contenders. The right-hander owns a 4.27 ERA in 372 2/3 innings over the past three seasons. He has below-average swing-and-miss and strikeout numbers, but Kelly’s an adept strike-thrower who does a decent job keeping the ball on the ground. He’s a source of affordable, league average innings that could bolster a contending club’s starting staff. It’d be a surprise if Kelly weren’t traded at some point — either this offseason or at next summer’s deadline.
Interest in Peralta figures to be more muted. His $7.5MM salary isn’t onerous, but the 34-year-old is coming off a modest .259/.325/.402 showing. Peralta has mixed in a couple excellent seasons in his career, but he’s typically offered league average hitting and solid but unspectacular defense in left field. Teams like the White Sox and Phillies could consider him as a lefty-hitting corner outfield option, but it’s unlikely the D-Backs would recoup much more than a fringe prospect and/or salary relief in any deal. At that point, it may be better to hang onto the longtime member of the organization as a veteran presence for a fairly young locker room.
There aren’t a ton of other obvious trade candidates on the roster. The D-Backs would surely welcome the opportunity to get much of the $60MM remaining on the Madison Bumgarner contract off the books, but it’s hard to see another club having interest in such an arrangement. Bumgarner has struggled mightily with home runs as his velocity has dipped in the desert, making his five-year deal from the 2019-20 offseason look like a major misstep.
First baseman Christian Walker and shortstop Nick Ahmed are each coming off seasons valued at marginally above replacement level. Ahmed, who’s one of the game’s top defensive infielders, could draw some interest from shortstop-needy clubs looking for a stopgap veteran at the position. (The Yankees, Astros and Angels could all fit that bill). With a salary that guarantees him a bit more than $18MM over the next two seasons, though, it seems likely the D-Backs would have to pay some money to facilitate a trade for a marginal prospect return. As with Peralta, it probably makes more sense for Arizona to hold onto Ahmed into the season.
Perhaps aside from a Merrill Kelly trade, there may not be many traditional “seller” moves by the Diamondbacks this winter. In fact, they’ve already made one meaningful move in the opposite direction. Arizona inked veteran closer Mark Melancon to a two-year deal just before the lockout, and he’ll immediately step in as the veteran anchor of a young relief corps. Melancon doesn’t have big velocity or swing-and-miss numbers, but he’s a solid strike-thrower who continues to post impressive ground-ball and soft contact rates.
Further upgrades could be on the horizon, as Arizona is only bringing back one reliever (swingman Caleb Smith) who logged at least 20+ innings with above-average strikeout and walk numbers this past season. The Snakes have reportedly poked around the market for veteran middle relievers Hunter Strickland and Bryan Shaw and could circle back to them or others of that ilk. Those wouldn’t be world-beating signings, but they’d be affordable and perhaps raise the floor in the middle innings.
Arizona has also reportedly expressed some interest in Wily Peralta, and a swing option could indeed make some sense. The D-Backs’ rotation is one of the thinner groups around the league. Gallen’s a quality young arm, and he’s likely to return at the top of the rotation. Bumgarner will get another opportunity, and Kelly would have a spot if he’s not moved.
Luke Weaver looks likely to claim a spot in the back-end. A former highly-regarded prospect, Weaver has been up-and-down over the past couple seasons in Phoenix. He generally posts solid enough strikeout and walk numbers to compensate for home run issues, and the D-Backs don’t have enough in-house alternatives to bump Weaver out of the starting staff at the moment.
The fifth spot (or final two spots if Kelly is traded) looks completely up for grabs. Tyler Gilbert, who warmed plenty of hearts by tossing a no-hitter in his first career start, might be the favorite after posting a 3.47 ERA as a rookie. His peripherals didn’t support that run prevention number, though, and Gilbert’s not long removed from being a minor league Rule 5 draftee. Awesome as his no-hitter was, he’s probably better suited as a depth option than a rotation cog. Taylor Widener, Humberto Castellanos and Humberto Mejia are among the other arms who could be in the mix, but none of that trio was particularly impressive in 2021. Smith could factor in as well but is probably better suited for relief.
The free agent rotation market has been largely picked through already, but Arizona could offer some innings to potential reclamation candidates. Vince Velasquez, Chad Kuhl and Zach Davies are among the speculative possibilities available for that kind of dart throw. Each is coming off a poor enough season they won’t be costly, but they’ve all found some level of success in years past.
Pitching figures to be the priority, coming off a season in which Arizona had the league’s second-worst ERA and third-worst SIERA. There’s room for some upgrades on the position player side, with Hazen and Sawdaye each highlighting third base in recent weeks as a target area. Arizona’s not going to pursue Kris Bryant, and a run at 34-year-old Kyle Seager probably isn’t in the cards for a team in the D-Backs’ uncertain competitive position.
Aside from perhaps Jonathan Villar, free agency doesn’t offer much else in the way of regulars there. While the D-Backs could theoretically poke around the trade market in search of a controllable option at the hot corner, they’re not especially likely to surrender prospects from the top couple tiers of the farm system. Perhaps there’s a creative swap to be had for a young infielder in an organization with more high-level depth. Taylor Walls of the Rays, J.D. Davis of the Mets and Ha-Seong Kim of the Padres are among potential trade targets of varying cost and windows of remaining control.
It’s also possible the D-Backs are left to run things back with their in-house options. Ahmed, if not moved, will be back at shortstop, with prospect Geraldo Perdomo a potential midseason candidate if he plays well at Triple-A. Marte seems likely to move back to second base full-time after rating poorly in center field. Ideally, Rojas would probably bounce around the diamond regularly, but he’s the likeliest option to assume the lion’s share of time at third base if the team doesn’t upgrade externally.
The D-Backs could look into the possibility of replacing Walker at first base. That’s particularly true if the designated hitter comes to the National League, with youngster Seth Beer likely assuming that role and leaving Walker as the primary first baseman. Despite his down season, the D-Backs tendered Walker an arbitration contract at a projected $2.7MM salary. His presence probably won’t foreclose the possibility of an upgrade — arbitration contracts aren’t fully guaranteed until Opening Day, so they could still move on at little financial cost — but that suggests the front office isn’t completely determined to cut bait with Walker either.
Kelly is the obvious #1 option behind the plate. He wasn’t right after returning from a June wrist fracture, but the 27-year-old had been off to an All-Star caliber start to the season. The D-Backs can only hope an offseason of rest will allow him to regain his pre-injury form. If that happens, Kelly could be one of the best two-way backstops around the league. They’ll probably acquire a veteran complement via low-cost free agency or waivers, since Jose Herrera — who has never appeared in the majors — is the only other primary catcher on the club’s 40-man roster.
That tabulation doesn’t include Daulton Varsho, who offers one of the more unconventional defensive profiles around. The 25-year-old started 37 games behind the dish and 36 games in the outfield in 2021, with more than half of his outfield outings coming in center field. There’s little precedent for a catcher with Varsho’s level of athleticism, but it’s also unclear for how long he’ll stick behind the plate. Scouting reports have raised questions about both his glove and arm strength in the past, and Kelly’s presence could regulate Varsho to predominant outfield work.
That’s particularly true in light of Hazen’s late-season comments on the team’s defensive approach. The front office head suggested to reporters in September that the club may have had too many moving parts. “I think we’ve pushed that [moving players around the diamond] to the limit and I think you’ve seen the dam break a little bit this year,” Hazen said at the time. “I do think we have to start honing in on who is going to thrive in that setting and who would be better off locking down one spot. Those are going to be part of the conversations we’ll be having.”
That could mean regular outfield reps for Varsho, who hit at a league average level during his first extended MLB run in 2021. He might be stretched a bit in center field, but the 2017 draftee looks like an above-average corner defender at the very least. He’ll join Peralta, Pavin Smith and Jake McCarthy as lefty-hitting outfield options, while they’re bringing back Stuart Fairchild and already traded for Jordan Luplow to add some help from the right side.
There’s not a ton of certainty in that mix, but there’s enough youth and promise that the D-Backs will probably deal with some growing pains to evaluate their internal group. Perhaps they’ll look into low base or non-roster deals involving a strong defensive center fielder, with Billy Hamilton and old friend Ender Inciarte among the players in that mold. But there’s unlikely to be a huge move on the grass over the coming months.
Generally speaking, that seems true for much of the franchise. In spite of the highly disappointing past couple seasons, the Diamondbacks don’t seem destined for an organizational restructuring. That’s a defensible course of action. The D-Backs already have the kind of young core, particularly on the position player side, with which teams are hoping to come out of a rebuild. They already possess one of the game’s better farm systems, and they’ll add another blue chip prospect with the second pick in next year’s draft. There’s no guarantee the organization would come out of a rebuild more definitively stronger in 2024 or 2025 than they are right now.
Yet they’re also in danger of falling into an undesirable gray area, particularly within the NL West. They’re far worse than the three teams at the top of the division, leaving no clear path to contention in 2022. There’s certainly room to go up, and the D-Backs aren’t likely as bad next season as they were this year. Whether this roster’s capable of improving enough to avert the overhaul to which organizational leadership seems so opposed remains to be seen.