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MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The NL Central?

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The National League Central looks as if it will be the most wide-open division in Major League Baseball when the regular season opens in a few weeks. Minus the Pirates, who figure to contend for the worst record in the league this year, it appears anyone could take the Central. The Cubs, Cardinals, Reds and Brewers were all playoff teams in 2020, and only five games separated the division winner (Chicago) from the fourth-place finisher (Milwaukee).  This past offseason would have been an opportune time for any of the Central’s teams to establish itself as the clear front-runner, but it doesn’t appear anyone separated itself from the pack.

The Cardinals made the biggest move in the division over the winter when they acquired third baseman Nolan Arenado from the Rockies. But other than that and re-signing right-hander Adam Wainwright and catcher Yadier Molina, they were pretty quiet.

The Cubs worsened their rotation when they traded away 2020 NL Cy Young-contending starter Yu Darvish to the Padres in a deal that netted them fellow righty Zach Davies. They also reunited with righty Jake Arrieta, who once won a Cy Young in their uniform but has since devolved into a back-end starter, and swapped out one flawed corner outfielder (Kyle Schwarber) for another (Joc Pederson).

The Reds said goodbye to last year’s Cy Young winner, Trevor Bauer, who signed with the Dodgers. They also cut ties with two accomplished relievers – Raisel Iglesias and Archie Bradley – though their bullpen did gain Sean Doolittle, Noe Ramirez and Cam Bedrosian. On the position player side, it doesn’t appear they adequately addressed shortstop, where they ranked 27th in the majors with 0.1 fWAR last year. Barring last-minute changes, they’re going to rely on some mix of Kyle Farmer, Jose Garcia and Dee-Strange Gordon, which isn’t particularly reassuring.

The Brewers, meanwhile, have reeled in two high-profile free agents in recent weeks, having signed former Cards second baseman Kolten Wong and ex-Red Sox outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. At the very least, they should give the Brewers a pair of average regulars, largely because of the outstanding defense they typically provide. The Brewers are also getting back Lorenzo Cain, who sat out most of last season, and he’ll join Bradley and former MVP Christian Yelich in what should be a strong outfield.

Aside from Pittsburgh, FanGraphs’ preseason odds give every team in the division a realistic chance at coming out on top. The Cardinals, Brewers, Cubs and Reds are all projected to win between 78 and 81 games. Which of those four do you think is the favorite?

(Poll link for app users)

NL Central Favorite
Cardinals 54.21% (12,793 votes)
Brewers 22.78% (5,376 votes)
Cubs 12.84% (3,031 votes)
Reds 10.17% (2,399 votes)
Total Votes: 23,599

Giants Sign Justin Bour

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7:35pm: Bour will not be in MLB camp, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area tweets. He’ll report to minor league camp April 1.

5:03pm: The Giants have agreed to a contract with Justin Bour, the first baseman himself posted in his Instagram profile. It’s a minor-league contract, reports Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic (Twitter link).

Bour is probably best known for a solid four-year run with the Marlins. He peaked in 2017, when he hit a robust .289/.366/.536 with 25 home runs in just 429 plate appearances. Bour’s offensive production tailed off in 2018, though, particularly after an August trade to the Phillies. He couldn’t right the ship in 2019, where he slumped to a .172/.259/.364 mark after signing with the Angels.

After being outrighted off Los Angeles’ 40-man roster, Bour signed a one-year contract with the Hanshin Tigers of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. While there had been some hope he’d rediscover his power stroke in NPB, Bour slashed an unspectacular .243/.338/.422 with 17 homers across 379 plate appearances.

It has now been three years since we’ve seen Bour at peak form, but there’s no risk for San Francisco in bringing him in as depth. First base is sure to belong to Brandon Belt when he’s healthy, but the longtime Giant underwent heel surgery last October and might not be ready for Opening Day. Each of Wilmer Flores, Darin Ruf and Jason Vosler is on the 40-man roster as a potential replacement if Belt can’t go at the start of the season. Among them, only Vosler (who has yet to make his MLB debut at age 27) hits left-handed, so Bour’s lefty bat helps balance the group.

Latest On Jake Odorizzi

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7:05pm: The Blue Jays, who were reportedly interested in Odorizzi during the offseason, remain in the mix, Heyman tweets. Other teams besides Houston and Toronto are also involved, per Heyman.

1:09pm: The Astros are among the teams “looking at” free agent right-hander Jake Odorizzi, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). Houston recently lost Framber Valdéz to a broken finger. There’s been no definitive word on how long Valdéz will be out, but Heyman reported yesterday the initial evaluation suggested he’ll require surgery, which could prove to be season-ending.

Odorizzi is the top starter remaining in free agency, so it’s natural the Astros would check in with his representatives. Adding him would undoubtedly help the current roster; as Ben Clemens of FanGraphs explored yesterday, Houston’s projected rotation now consists of Zack Greinke, Lance McCullers Jr., José Urquidy, Cristian Javier and Luis García. That’s a talented group but one light on major league track record at the back end. Beyond that quintet, Brandon Bielak and Forrest Whitley look like the top depth options. (Justin Verlander likely won’t pitch in 2021 after undergoing Tommy John surgery last September).

Teams are often forced to rely on seven or eight starters over the course of a typical season. This year, they’ll be faced with unprecedented challenges managing workloads coming off a shortened campaign. Greinke’s 67 innings in 2020 led the current projected rotation, so it’d be difficult to count on all (or perhaps any) of the group to go 160-plus innings in 2021.

Odorizzi himself is coming off an injury-ruined year. Three injured list stints (for an intercostal strain, a chest contusion, and blisters, respectively) kept him to just 13.2 innings across four starts for the Twins. That diminished workload probably limits Odorizzi’s innings total this year as well, but he’d add a usually-durable, productive starter to the mix. The 30-year-old averaged 165-plus innings per season from 2014-19 with a cumulative 3.88 ERA and solid strikeout (23%) and walk (8.2%) rates. A few of those years were spent with the Rays, where current Astros general manager James Click worked in the Tampa Bay front office.

That all makes for a logical match on paper, but it’s questionable whether the organization is willing to meet his asking price. Odorizzi was reportedly seeking a three-year deal in the $13MM – $15MM range annually earlier this offseason; he apparently remains content to wait out the market rather than move off that price point. That’s not an outlandish ask for a mid-rotation starter, but concerns about the luxury tax could keep the Astros from spending at that level.

Houston’s current $181MM payroll, as projected by Roster Resource, seems more than manageable for an organization that was set to spend over $210MM on players last season before prorating salaries. However, Heyman notes the Astros’ luxury tax ledger, which uses contracts’ average annual values rather than current year salaries, sits about $13MM shy of the first threshold ($210MM). It’s possible Houston could look into a longer-term deal with Odorizzi that lowers the AAV for tax purposes. Even that type of arrangement, though, would likely push the Astros right up to or over the tax barrier, perhaps necessitating other payroll-shedding moves to stay beneath the threshold and leave room for any in-season acquisitions.

It’s arguable the win-now Astros should be willing to pay the marginal taxes in order to take their best shot at a World Series in 2021. That doesn’t seem likely, though. Houston reportedly wasn’t particularly active in the bidding for free agent center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr., another obvious roster fit, because of luxury tax concerns. As Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic noted last month, exceeding the threshold would reduce the draft pick compensation Houston could receive for their slate of potential qualifying offer recipients (Carlos Correa and McCullers among them) next winter. Houston management apparently found that a deterrent, particularly with the organization being dealt significant draft penalties in 2020-21 due to the sign-stealing scandal. An Odorizzi signing would likely raise the same concerns.

Angels Outright Gerardo Reyes

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The Angels announced that they have outrighted reliever Gerardo Reyes, bringing their 40-man roster to 39.

The right-handed Reyes has been dealing with a UCL sprain in his pitching elbow this spring, though there’s no word on the severity of the injury. He’s still considering next steps at this point, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic tweets.

Reyes joined the Angels last August in a trade with the Padres for catcher Jason Castro, but he didn’t pitch for the Halos in 2020. The 27-year-old made his major league debut the previous season with an unsightly 7.62 ERA in 26 innings out of the Padres’ bullpen, though he did post an excellent 32.5 percent strikeout rate and average 97 mph on his fastball.

Royals Sign Jarrod Dyson

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MARCH 5: The Royals have announced the signing, Alec Lewis of The Athletic tweets. The contract includes $250K in performance bonuses.

MARCH 2: The Royals have reached an agreement with free-agent outfielder Jarrod Dyson, Robert Murray of FanSided reports. It’s a $1.5MM pact for the ACES client, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network. The deal is pending a physical.

Dyson is going back to his first organization, which used a 50th-round pick on him in 2006. He managed to overcome the odds and reach the majors in 2010, and has since appeared in the bigs in 11 straight seasons. During his initial run with the Royals, Dyson turned in a few productive campaigns – including during their AL-winning 2014 effort and their World Series title season in 2015 – owing to a combination of excellent defense and base running. He played a fairly regular role with the Royals from 2012-16 and stole at least 25 bases in each of those years.

Heading into the 2017 season, the Royals traded Dyson to the Mariners for right-hander Nate Karns. Dyson, now 36, has also played for the Diamondbacks, Pirates and White Sox since the Royals parted with him. While Dyson has never been a huge threat with the bat, his production has plummeted over the past few seasons. Dating back to 2017, he has slashed an ugly .226/.305/.309 in 1,145 plate appearances, and his 2020 output – .180/.231/.180 in 66 PA – looks especially poor. However, Dyson did steal 80 bases and continue to offer high-grade defense (33 DRS, 22 UZR) during that four-year period.

Dyson, who has extensive experience at all three outfield positions, looks to be in line to back up Andrew Benintendi, Michael A. Taylor and Whit Merrifield in his return to Kansas City. Like Dyson, both Benintendi and Taylor have joined the Royals since last season ended.

Major League Baseball Suspends Sam Dyson For 2021 Season

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Major League Baseball announced this afternoon that free agent reliever Sam Dyson has accepted a suspension covering the entire 2021 season under the league’s domestic violence policy.

The soon-to-be 33-year-old Dyson hasn’t pitched since 2019, which he divided between San Francisco and Minnesota. Dyson underwent shoulder surgery that September, and two months later, the league began investigating him after ex-girlfriend Alexis Blackburn accused him of abuse. Details of those allegations became public this past October.

Dyson has been an effective reliever with a handful of teams since his career started in 2012. However, his off-field conduct could prevent him from pitching in the bigs again.

Adam Haseley Out Four Weeks Due To Groin Strain

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Phillies outfielder Adam Haseley suffered a moderate groin strain and will miss the next four weeks, manager Joe Girardi told reporters (including Matt Gelb of the Athletic). Haseley had been in competition for the season-opening center field job.

With Haseley now likely to open the season on the injured list, it seems Philadelphia will pick from a group of Scott Kingery, Roman Quinn, Mickey Moniak and non-roster invitee Odúbel Herrera in center. Kingery has shown flashes as a super-utility type over the past three seasons but is coming off a .159/.228/.283 line in 2020. Even if he gets the majority of starts in center, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him continue to get reps on the infield, where he’s played each of second, third and short rather extensively (although he played almost no shortstop in 2020). Quinn hasn’t hit much at the big league level, often missing time due to injury, but he’s a generally well-regarded defender. He’s also out of minor-league options, meaning he needs to break camp with the team or be exposed to other clubs.

Turning to either Moniak or Herrera would be more surprising. Moniak, the first overall pick in the 2016 draft, has been a decent but unspectacular minor-league performer. In his most recent action on the farm, he slashed .252/.303/.439 at Double-A in 2019. Herrera, meanwhile, once looked like a potential building block for the organization, signing a $30.5MM extension after a 2016 All-Star season. His production dipped in 2018 and he was terrible early in the 2019 season before being suspended as part of the league’s domestic violence policy. Herrera was removed from the 40-man after that year and hasn’t played in MLB since then. Nevertheless, he’s in spring training and has seemingly put himself back in the mix with a promising start there.

Injury Notes: Cain, Realmuto, Astros, Lowrie, Severino

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Lorenzo Cain recently strained his calf in batting practice and is expected to miss one or two weeks, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The injury is believed to be “very minor,” but the Brewers will be cautious in bringing the veteran center fielder back to action. Yesterday’s agreement with Jackie Bradley Jr. gives the Brewers cover at the position if Cain winds up needing more recovery time than expected. Manager Craig Counsell reiterated (via Murray) that Cain “is our center fielder,” so it seems Bradley’s ticketed for right field on most days if everyone’s healthy.

A few more injury updates:

  • Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto had his hard cast removed and replaced with a splint as he works his way back from a fractured right thumb, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com was among those to report. That’s a generally encouraging sign, as Zolecki notes that this had been the anticipated next step in his recovery. However, Realmuto still has not progressed to a point where he can hit or throw. It remains unclear if he’ll be ready in time for Opening Day. Something resembling a typical season from Realmuto, arguably the game’s top catcher, is no doubt a key piece of Philadelphia’s hopes of snapping a nine-year playoff drought.
  • Third baseman Alex Bregman and designated hitter Yordan Álvarez haven’t yet gotten into spring training games for the Astros, but it doesn’t seem there’s much cause for concern. Bregman “tweaked” his hamstring and is taking things slowly, notes Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. The 26-year-old would be playing through the soreness if it were the regular season, he says. Álvarez is a little further from game action, per manager Dusty Baker (via McTaggart), although that seems to be mere caution after the young slugger underwent season-ending surgery on both knees last August.
  • Jed Lowrie is seeing action in simulated games but has not yet been cleared to play in spring training games, Athletics manager Bob Melvin told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle). The former All-Star second baseman is back in A’s camp as a non-roster invitee after a two-year stint with the Mets that was ruined by injuries, most recently continued trouble with his left knee. Lowrie has taken just eight MLB place appearances since leaving Oakland after a stellar 2018 season.
  • Yankees right-hander Luis Severino continues to progress “really well” from his February 2020 Tommy John surgery, general manager Brian Cashman said this afternoon (via Erik Boland of Newsday). Severino had already moved to a long toss routine and soon should be able to throw off a mound, Cashman said. One of the best pitchers in the league from 2017-18, Severino has been limited to just 12 innings over the past two seasons by injury. His return would be a boon to a New York rotation that is high on upside but has plenty of risk behind ace Gerrit Cole.

COVID Notes: Astros, Red Sox, Cordero

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Latest notes

  • Major League Baseball released its latest set of COVID-19 testing results this afternoon. Out of 13,718 monitoring tests conducted this week, five (all belonging to players) returned a positive result, marking a 0.04% positivity rate. None of the week’s 81 intake tests came back positive.

Earlier today

  • Health and safety protocols will keep eight Astros pitchers away from the team for the time being. Right-handers Bryan Abreu, Pedro Báez, Luis García, Cristian Javier, Francis Martes, Enoli Paredes and non-roster invitees Ronel Blanco and Hector Velázquez are all currently away from camp, manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Those players’ placement on the COVID-19 list does not mean they have tested positive for the coronavirus; a player can enter health and safety protocols due to exposure to someone who tested positive. Indeed, general manager James Click rejected the notion the team was suffering an outbreak, pointing out (via Rome) that the COVID protocols “cast a wide net” in an attempt to reduce viral transmission. There are no current plans to pause team activities, Click says.
  • Franchy Cordero was delayed in reporting to spring training because of a positive COVID-19 diagnosis, but he’s now in camp and taking an intake physical, manager Alex Cora told reporters (including Jen McCaffrey of the Athletic). If all goes well, Cordero could start team workouts today. The 26-year-old outfielder was a key part of Boston’s trade return for Andrew Benintendi.

Aaron Boone Hopes To Return To Yankees This Weekend

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MARCH 5: Boone is feeling well and going through standard COVID-19 testing procedures, he said Friday (via Lindsey Adler of the Athletic). He hopes to return to the dugout this weekend.

MARCH 3, 8:18 pm: The Yankees released a statement (on Twitter) with an update on Boone’s status: “As previously planned, Manager Aaron Boone will spend the night at St. Joseph’s Hospital to rest and recover. He is currently in good spirits.”

MARCH 3, 3:08pm: Bench coach Carlos Mendoza will take over for Boone during his absence, Joel Sherman of the New York Post was among those to tweet. Cashman confirmed to reporters that Boone shouldn’t miss much time, and the Yankees announced that the procedure went as expected.

MARCH 3, 2:22pm: The Yankees announced Wednesday that manager Aaron Boone will be taking an immediate medical leave of absence to receive a pacemaker. He’ll undergo surgery later this afternoon in Tampa. Boone offered the following statement:

As many of you know, I underwent open-heart surgery in 2009, and I wanted everyone to understand where I’m at regarding the procedure that’s taking place today. Over the last six-to-eight weeks I’ve had mild symptoms of lightheadedness, low energy and shortness of breath. As a result, I underwent a series of tests and examinations in New York prior to the beginning of spring training, including multiple visits with a team of heart specialists. While the heart checkup came back normal, there were indications of a low heart rate which, after further consultations with doctors in Tampa, necessitates a pacemaker.

My faith is strong, and my spirits are high. I’m in a great frame of mind because I know I’m in good hands with the doctors and medical staff here at St. Joseph’s Hospital. They are confident that today’s surgery will allow me to resume all of my usual professional and personal activities and afford me a positive long-term health prognosis without having to change anything about my way of life. I look forward to getting back to work in the next several days, but during my short-term absence, I have complete trust that our coaches, staff and players will continue their training and preparation at the same level as we’ve had and without any interruption.

There’s no clearly defined timeline for when Boone, who’ll turn 48 next week, will rejoin the club. However, the manager’s use of “short-term absence” and mention of getting back to work “in the next several days” indicate that he’s not anticipating a particularly lengthy leave. The Yankees noted that general manager Brian Cashman will meet with reporters later this afternoon, and the team will surely provide updates on Boone as he rehabs from the procedure.

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