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Free Agent Stock Watch: Nick Castellanos

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So … it’s early. Then again, we’re also already a sixth of the way through the season (for some teams, anyway). When it comes to assessing next year’s free agent crop, teams won’t have the luxury of watching a full season of repeat testing.

That being said, we’re not going to fall into the trap of hyping up early performances. Even a 60-game test is only so significant. Teams will be weighing past track record along with determinations of present skill.

All of this creates a perfect storm for a player who could end up being the most interesting potential free agent: Nick Castellanos of the Reds. He only donned the uniform for regular season action for the first time a couple of weeks ago, but it’s already time for the still-youthful slugger to ponder the future.

What’s fascinating in this case is the combination of intriguing factors at play. Agent Scott Boras negotiated a pair of opt out opportunities into the Castellanos deal, allowing him to exit after 2020 or 2021. At 28 years of age, the outfielder still has a good bit of prime left to market.

On the other side is the swirling economic uncertainty. We know Mookie Betts still got a huge deal, but he could be a special case and he surely could’ve commanded more in “normal” times. It’s anyone’s guess how the season will play out, how 2021 will shape up, and how MLB owners will spend. Oh, and let’s not forget the other looming threat: labor unrest.

You can be sure that Boras is aware of all of these things. He’s always ready to go to battle. Castellanos is no shrinking violet either.

That’s why it’s so notable that Castellanos is mashing early on, with a league-leading five home runs and ridiculous .912 slugging percentage through ten games. He’s leading baseball (minimum 20 plate appearances) with a 261 wRC+ and has left Statcast agog at the contact quality. Lest we forget, Castellanos also turned in a monster second half in 2019. It doesn’t take a Boras-sized imagination to envision the narrative potential. If Castellanos ends up with huge numbers in a truncated 2020, Boras will be primed to argue that his client has been among the very best hitters in baseball over his past 162 games.

This could yet play out in so many different ways. Castellanos could fizzle, or just step back into his typically very productive levels of output. But you can see the potential for a unique bonanza even in spite of the broader uncertainty. The Reds might feel compelled to do what it takes to keep him around if he helps lead a magical season. The market will not feature Betts since he’s locked in with the Dodgers. George Springer remains, but hasn’t been knocking the socks off the ball early. It is fair to note that Marcell Ozuna has also been hot, right along with Castellanos, but there’s room for multiple corner outfielders to earn.

The biggest remaining wild card? It may be in the collective bargaining. Beyond the potential for a breakdown in negotiations, the next agreement is sure to come with major modifications of incentives that will have to be parsed closely by Boras and other agents.

But that’s not all. The designated hitter role could be absolutely critical to Castellanos’s outlook in a hypothetical return trip to free agency. That’s now in the game, but only for the unique 2020 season. Odds are it’ll be negotiated into the next CBA as a permanent fixture. If that happens, it’d be quite the boon for market interest in Castellanos. Teams would surely feel much more comfortable investing knowing that they could not only limit his exposure to the outfield grass in the early stages of a deal — while improved, Castellanos is still generally lightly regarded with the glove — but shift him into primary DH duties whenever appropriate.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Minor League Baseball Changes Negotiating Teams

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Major League and Minor League Baseball are still at the bargaining table, but the latter will now seat different representatives. According to J.J. Cooper of Baseball America, the MiLB leadership has named a new slate of negotiators.

It’s an interesting gambit with the clock ticking on the existing deal between the sides and plenty of ground left to cover. Indeed, as Cooper notes, some within the minor-league system now see a growing possibility that talks won’t result in a deal, which could even lead MLB to build its own new farm club network.

Cooper goes into full detail on the dynamics at play here; you’ll want to read the entire article to understand the situation. In brief, as he puts it: “The group that was disbanded on Monday was viewed by many to be more focused on the interests of MiLB owners rather than those of [MiLB president & CEO Pat O’Conner] and MiLB’s offices.”

No matter which negotiators attempt to close out the deal, it sounds as if contraction to 120 teams is now a fait accompli. While MiLB had built some leverage through political pressure, the global pandemic greatly undermined the organization’s position. If a bargain is struck, MLB is sure to gain much greater authority over minor-league operations, though the new MiLB negotiating team is expected to try to carve out an ongoing role for the organization and its leadership.

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Twins Place Rich Hill On Injured List

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The Twins have placed left-hander Rich Hill on the injured list because of shoulder fatigue, Dan Hayes of The Athletic was among those to report. Hill’s IL placement will be backdated, per manager Rocco Baldelli. The club has also added righty Juan Minaya to its 60-man player pool, Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com tweets.

Consistent IL placements have been an unfortunate part of the package with Hill, a well-traveled 40-year-old who, on a per-inning basis, has surprisingly been one of the game’s most effective pitchers since he revived his career in 2015. Hill’s most recent success, primarily with the Dodgers, prompted the Twins to hand him a $3MM guarantee last offseason. It looked good through one start this year, as Hill tossed five scoreless, two-hit innings in a win over the Cardinals last Wednesday. However, Hill was scratched from his scheduled start against Pittsburgh on Tuesday.

Reigning AL Central Minnesota ia off to a tremendous 8-2 start this season, but it hasn’t come without a few key problems in its rotation. Before Hill went on the IL, fellow free-agent pickup Homer Bailey and 2019 All-Star Jake Odorizzi landed on the shelf with injuries. Jose Berrios, Kenta Maeda, Randy Dobnak and Monday starter Lewis Thorpe are still around, but it’s unclear who will fill the last spot if the Twins need someone to step up.

60-Man Pool Additions: Orioles, Brewers

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Here are the latest additions to 60-man player pools from around the majors:

  • Joining the Orioles’ 60-man player pool are righty Kyle Bradish, outfielder Ryan McKenna, and southpaw Bruce Zimmermann. Bradish, a fourth-round pick of the 2018 draft, had a solid year at the High-A level in 2019 and came to the Baltimore organization in the Dylan Bundy swap. The latter two will each be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this fall if they’re not added to the 40-man roster beforehand. McKenna had a tough season last year at Double-A, where slashed just .232/.321/.365 in 567 plate appearances. The 25-year-old Zimmermann topped out at Triple-A in 2019, scuffling in seven starts. But he earned his way there with 101 1/3 impressive frames at Bowie, over which he carried a 2.58 ERA with 9.0 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9.
  • The Brewers have brought outfielder Hedbert Perez and righty Justin Topa into their alternate training site, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports on Twitter. It’s a rather interesting duo. The former only just turned 17 years of age and is obviously still a long ways away from the majors. The organization obviously sees quite a lot of potential. Topa is already 29 but sits in the upper nineties with his fastball, so this’ll be an opportunity for the Milwaukee organization to see if he could ultimately be an option at the MLB level. Last year, Topa worked to a cumulative 3.38 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 over forty frames split between the High-A and Double-A levels.

Mike Soroka Suffers Season-Ending Achilles Tear

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Braves ace Mike Soroka suffered a torn right Achilles on Monday and will miss the rest of the season, Jeff Schultz of The Athletic was among those to report. The injury forced the right-handed Soroka out of his start early in a loss to the division-rival Mets.

Not only is this development horrible news for Soroka and the Braves, but it’s a blow to baseball fans who have been treated to his outstanding performance since he debuted in 2018. Still just 22 years old when he took the mound tonight — his birthday is tomorrow — Soroka was an All-Star last season who has registered a 2.72 ERA/3.34 FIP with 7.27 K/9, 2.17 BB/9 and a 50.4 percent groundball rate in 211 2/3 innings in the majors. Monday was just his third start of the current season, and considering the severity and timing of it, it seems fair to wonder whether Soroka will miss a chunk of time in 2021 as he works his way back.

Soroka’s year-ending injury continues a run of terrible luck in Atlanta’s rotation, which dealt with multiple problems before losing him. Righty Felix Hernandez opted out of the season over coronavirus concerns, and then big-money offseason pickup Cole Hamels went on the 45-day IL because of a triceps injury. After that, the Braves booted one-time All-Star Mike Foltynewicz from their roster in the wake of an alarming drop in velocity. Foltynewicz is still part of the organization, though, and may stand a greater chance of getting back to the majors this year in light of Soroka’s injury.

If Folty isn’t an option, the Braves could still look within, seek a trade or scour a rather uninspiring free-agent market to complement Max Fried, Sean Newcomb, Touki Toussaint and Kyle Wright in their rotation. One thing’s for sure: Even though Atlanta’s 7-4 and atop the NL East, this season has not gone according to plan for its group of starters.

Mets’ Infield Dealing With Injuries

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The Mets are suddenly dealing with a few notable injuries in their infield, Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News was among those to report. Second baseman Robinson Cano (left groin), shortstop Amed Rosario (left quad) and third baseman Jeff McNeil (lower back) are all battling some degree of “tightness,” per Thosar.

The severity of these injuries are unclear, but they’re the latest hits to an offense that saw outfielder Yoenis Cespedes opt out of the season Sunday. Cespedes got off to a subpar start this season, as has Rosario. On the other hand, Cano and McNeil have been great thus far. It’s especially encouraging in regards to Cano, who was a letdown a season ago, but not surprising in McNeil’s case. After all, he was one of the NL’s best position players last year.

The Mets entered the day at 3-7, so any further bad news for their lineup could make it even harder for the team to dig out of the hole it’s in at the one-sixth mark of the season. The Mets replaced their three lost starters with Brian Dozier, Andres Gimenez and Luis Guillorme on Monday.

Carlos Rodon Departs With Shoulder Soreness

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8:33pm: Rodon experienced shoulder soreness, the team announced. He also reported pain in the neck area, James Fegan of The Athletic tweets.

8:16pm: White Sox starter Carlos Rodon left his start today after just two innings. The lefty’s fastball velocity dropped precipitously in his second frame, as MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy observes on Twitter.

It’s too soon to tell what caused the velo drop, but the South Siders obviously were concerned enough to give a quick hook after just 26 pitches. Rodon allowed three hits and one earned run before departing.

Rodon, 27, already turned in one rough outing to open the season. He had been hoping for a full campaign after missing significant time due to Tommy John surgery. Rodon can be controlled through arbitration for one more season after the 2020 campaign.

That TJ procedure and an earlier shoulder surgery provide a worrisome backdrop to the developments this evening. There are obviously quite a few other potential explanations for a sudden loss of arm speed, but that recent history suggests some added cause for concern.

Rockies V. Padres: Who’s More Likely To Make Playoffs?

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Neither Colorado nor San Diego entered the season as teams expected to contend for playoff berths, but both the Rockies and Padres have been among the National League’s best teams a week-plus into what will go down as a strange 2020 campaign. The NL West rivals met over the weekend, and the Rockies took two of three to vault them into first place in the division – yes, even ahead of the mighty Dodgers – with a 6-2 record. The Padres, who are trying to snap a 13-year playoff drought, are now a game back at 6-4.

When the dust settles at year’s end (if a full season actually happens), there’s little doubt that the Dodgers will be the top team standing in the NL West. Frankly, they’re too loaded to expect otherwise. But it would still be a major accomplishment for the Rockies or Padres to earn wild-card berths. Colorado’s not far removed from back-to-back playoff spots, having played meaningful October ball in 2017-18, though the team fell on hard times during a 71-win effort last season and did little to nothing to improve during the offseason. San Diego was pretty aggressive, meanwhile, though it entered the winter as a 70-win team with a similarly high hill to climb.

The fact that the league added three extra playoff teams in each league for 2020 obviously helps the causes of every club, especially those that have started well this year. The Rockies have charged to first in their division on the strength of some of the usual suspects (Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon, German Marquez and Jon Gray), and they’ve done so despite struggles from team MVP Nolan Arenado. Surprisingly, though, veterans Daniel Murphy, Matt Kemp and Daniel Bard – whose best days seemed long gone when the season started – have picked up some of the slack.

The Padres are playing .600 ball in the early going thanks in no small part to continued marvelous performances from second-year stars Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack, but they’ve also gotten excellent production from other sources. Outfielder and offseason acquisition Trent Grisham has been fantastic; so have currently injured first baseman Eric Hosmer and outfielder Wil Myers, both disappointments in recent years, as well as righty Dinelson Lamet. To the surprise of no one who has paid attention to his career, newcomer and outfielder Tommy Pham has also thrived. The Padres also sport an impressive bullpen on paper, though the unit’s off to a surprisingly poor start. Regardless, in order to upgrade their cast of pitchers, the Padres could pick from a deep well of prospects (MacKenzie Gore? Luis Patino?) if they need to bolster their roster in the next couple months.

It’s going to be interesting to see if either of these rival clubs will emerge as playoff teams in 2020. They’ve certainly begun well, but which one is more likely to keep up its current pace? (Poll link for app users)

Mike Soroka Helped Off Field With Lower-Leg Injury

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Braves starter Mike Soroka had to be helped off of the field after suffering an evident injury. He was attempting to cover first base when he came up limping and ultimately could not bear weight on his right leg.

While it’s obviously far too soon to know what kind of prognosis Soroka will face, replays suggest he may well have suffered damage to his Achilles tendon. That could be a potentially devastating injury to the hurler, who turns 23 tomorrow.

Soroka was excellent last year, his first full campaign in the majors, as he earned an All-Star nod and came in second in the A.L. Rookie of the Year voting. He finished the season with 174 2/3 innings of 2.68 ERA pitching.

It had been more of the same early in 2020, as he carried a 1.59 ERA through his first two outings. While Soroka is anything but overpowering, he has succeeded to this point in his young career by keeping batters off balance and limiting the long ball.

Soroka is on track for likely arbitration qualification as a Super Two player after the 2020 season. His earning power would be reduced greatly if he’s unable to participate fully in the truncated season.

Any significant absence would obviously also pose a major problem for the Braves. They’re already missing Cole Hamels and Felix Hernandez from the anticipated rotation mix.

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