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Red Sox Designate Nathaniel Lowe, Josh Winckowski For Assignment

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The Red Sox announced that first baseman Nathaniel Lowe has been designated for assignment. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reported the move shortly before the official announcement. That opens a 40-man spot for Tristan Gray, who has been acquired from the Rays. The Sox are also designating right-hander Josh Winckowski for assignment, reports Ari Alexander of 7 News. That will open another 40-man spot, presumably for Boston to add someone ahead of today’s Rule 5 protection deadline.

The moves are effectively early non-tenders. Friday afternoon is the deadline for teams to decide whether or not to tender contracts to their arbitration-eligible and pre-arb players. But as mentioned, today is the deadline for adding players to the 40-man in order to protect them from the Rule 5 draft. By cutting these two players now, the Sox have made space for adding Gray and someone else in the coming hours.

Nathaniel Lowe | Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY SportsIt’s not a surprise that Boston isn’t bringing Lowe back. He was a midseason desperation addition. The Sox lost Triston Casas to injury early in the season, leaving a hole at first base. They had been patching that over with guys like Romy González and Abraham Toro. Lowe became available in August when the Nationals released him. He has a good overall track record but was having a bad season. The Sox were able to grab him for essentially nothing to bolster their first base group down the stretch.

The Sox also could have kept Lowe for 2026 via arbitration but it never seemed likely they would do so. He qualified for Super Two status going into 2023, giving him four arb passes instead of the usual three. He had already raised his salary to $10.3MM in 2025. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a $13.5MM salary in 2026, which will be his age-30 season. The Sox presumably had no intention of paying that after Lowe hit .228/.307/.381 for a 91 wRC+ this year. They have Casas potentially coming back in 2026 and they could also pursue external additions.

Technically, Boston has some time to try to trade Lowe but other teams presumably aren’t keen on him at that $13.5MM price point either. He will likely stay in DFA limbo until Friday and then be non-tendered, becoming a free agent.

Once he’s officially on the open market, he will be an interesting bounceback candidate. As mentioned, his 2025 season wasn’t good, but he was a solid everyday first baseman for the Rangers for many years. From 2021 to 2024, he got into at least 140 games in four straight seasons, including at least 157 in the first three. He launched between 16 and 27 home runs in each of those. He also had a walk rate of 12.5% or higher in three of the four. He had a combined .274/.359/.432 slash line and 124 wRC+ for that span. FanGraphs credited him with 10.8 wins above replacement.

That strong performance helped the Rangers win the 2023 World Series and also pushed Lowe’s salary up into eight-figure territory. Those factors combined with his down year to make him a clear non-tender candidate.

Based on his track record, some club should give Lowe a big deal at some point, though at a lesser price point than his projected arbitration salary. He will jump into a first base market that has already seen Josh Naylor come off the board. Pete Alonso, Ryan O’Hearn, Luis Arráez and others are still out there, while Christian Walker and Willson Contreras are potential trade candidates.

Winckowski, 28 in June, has spent the past few years working in a swing role for the Sox. He has logged 242 1/3 innings over 21 starts and 100 relief appearances, allowing 4.20 earned runs per nine. His 18.2% strikeout rate is subpar but his his 8.3% walk rate is around average and his 51.6% ground ball rate quite strong.

He only logged 11 2/3 innings in the majors in 2025. He spent most of the first half on optional assignment in the minors. In June, the Sox called him up and put him on the big league 60-day injured list due to a a flexor strain in his right elbow. That allowed them to open a 40-man roster spot. Winckowski stayed on the IL for the rest of the year, collecting service time along the way. The IL goes away five days after the World Series, so he retook a 40-man spot at that time.

His current health status is unknown but he was going to be on the roster bubble regardless. He exhausted his final option season in 2025. He also pushed his service time just over the three-year mark, therefore qualifying for arbitration. He is projected for a salary of $800K next year. That’s barely above the league minimum, which will be $780K next year. But for a guy who was hurt for most of 2025 and can’t be easily sent to the minors anymore, the Sox aren’t keen to pay him at that level.

While he’s in DFA limbo, they could try to trade him elsewhere. He can be controlled for another three seasons and is relatively cheap. But it’s also possible he gets non-tendered alongside Lowe on Friday and ends up a free agent.

Photos courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck, Kevin Jairaj, Eric Canha, Imagn Images

Rays Release Forrest Whitley To Pursue NPB Opportunity

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The Rays announced that they’ve released former top prospect Forrest Whitley to pursue an opportunity in Japan. Tampa Bay had selected him onto the 40-man roster a couple weeks ago to avoid losing him to minor league free agency. When the former first-round pick evidently found a better job overseas, the Rays were willing to let him depart.

Tampa Bay’s release of Whitley and trade of infielder Tristan Gray to Boston clears a couple spots on the 40-man roster. That’s down to 38 as this evening’s deadline to keep eligible prospects out of the Rule 5 draft approaches. It’s likely there are a few more cuts on the horizon for a Tampa Bay team that tends to churn the back of the roster and relies heavily on its farm system.

Whitley was once arguably the most talented pitching prospect in the sport. The Astros viewed the 6’7″ righty as a potential ace as he dominated up through the Double-A level. A failed drug test for a banned stimulant in 2018 was the first setback, and Whitley then suffered through multiple seasons ruined by injuries and underwhelming performance. That included Tommy John surgery in 2021 and a significant lat strain in ’23. Whitley could never find much of a rhythm when he was healthy enough to pitch in Triple-A.

He eventually exhausted his minor league options (even with Houston granted a fourth year) before he’d had much of a look at the big league level. He began this past season on the injured list. The Astros carried him on the MLB roster once he returned but designated him for assignment when he pitched terribly over his first 7 1/3 innings. The Rays acquired him in a cash trade but placed him on waivers after five underwhelming appearances. He cleared and finished the season as a non-roster player in Triple-A.

The final few months of the ’25 season were Whitley’s most promising in years. He fired 55 1/3 innings of 2.60 ERA ball while striking out 30.4% of opponents out of Durham’s rotation. Whitley’s heater averaged around 95 MPH and he leaned more heavily on his cutter and changeup while pulling back the usage of his sinker and curveball. It was encouraging enough for the Rays to keep him out of minor league free agency, but his out-of-options status meant he still would have needed to impress the club in Spring Training or risk heading back into DFA limbo.

Whitley is headed into his age-28 season and presumably has a rotation opportunity lined up in Japan. He has the power stuff and prospect pedigree to be one of the highest-upside NPB returnees a couple seasons from now if he carries over the form he showed in Durham. Doing so would come with a far higher earning ceiling than he was likely to find domestically. He’ll not only lock in a guaranteed contract for 2026, but he’d be able to return to MLB with the benefit of open market bidding if things go well in Japan. Whitley has yet to reach one year of MLB service time and would not have qualified for MLB free agency until his age-34 season even if he’d finally clicked at the big league level.

Red Sox Trade Luis Guerrero To Rays

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The Red Sox and Rays have swapped right-hander Luis Guerrero and infielder Tristan Gray, per announcements from both clubs. Boston recently designated Guerrero for assignment and passed him through waivers unclaimed. The Red Sox designated first baseman Nate Lowe for assignment to open a 40-man spot for Gray.

Tampa Bay could have just claimed Guerrero off waivers but seemingly didn’t want to commit a 40-man roster spot to the hard-throwing but command-challenged righty. The 25-year-old has posted a strong 2.63 ERA in 27 1/3 innings for the Red Sox over the past two seasons and averages a potent 96.9 mph on his heater. However, he ended the season on the injured list due to an elbow issue and has regularly displayed alarming command (or lack thereof) both in the majors and upper minors.

Guerrero has walked nearly 15% of his major league opponents against a tepid 17.6% strikeout rate. He carries a 3.89 ERA in three Triple-A seasons but has walked or plunked a colossal 17.4% of his Triple-A opponents. That includes a walk rate just under 19% in 2025.

At times, Guerrero has posted gaudy strikeout and swinging-strike rates. The velocity is impressive, and he has a pair of minor league options remaining. That makes him an intriguing roll of the dice for Tampa Bay, but his health and troubling lack of command make him more of a project than a sure thing — small-sample major league ERA notwithstanding.

Guerrero would hardly be the first live-armed prospect to land in Tampa Bay and flourish, of course, and there ought to be ample opportunity in Kevin Cash’s bullpen. The Rays declined their $11MM club option on longtime closer Pete Fairbanks, making him a free agent. Holdovers include Edwin Uceta, Griffin Jax, Garrett Cleavinger, Bryan Baker and Mason Montgomery, but there’s plenty of innings for Guerrero (and others) to claim if he can impress in spring training or in the early portion of the Triple-A season.

As for Gray, he’s a 29-year-old with limited MLB experience across parts of three seasons. He tallied 86 plate appearances with the Rays in 2025 and hit .231/.282/.410 with three homers and five doubles. Gray walked at a 7% clip and fanned at a 22.1% rate in his 30 games with Tampa Bay. He split the bulk of his season between the Triple-A affiliate of the White Sox, slashing .270/.333/.472 in 282 turns at the plate.

Gray is a left-handed hitter with considerable experience at all four infield positions. He’s played more second, short and third than first base but still has 938 innings even as a first baseman. He also has a minor league option remaining. He’ll go on Boston’s 40-man roster as a depth piece who can be stashed in Triple-A Worcester, though he’s not a lock to make it through the offseason on the 40-man roster. Guerrero will be in camp with the Rays as a non-roster invitee and head to Triple-A Durham if he doesn’t make the club next spring.

MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo first reported that Guerrero had been traded to Tampa Bay.

Red Sox Interested In Bo Bichette, Kyle Schwarber

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With holes to fill in the lineup, the Red Sox are exploring two of the bigger free agent bats on the market.  WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports that “the Red Sox have shown interest in” Bo Bichette, and MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports that the club has likewise “checked in on Kyle Schwarber.”

Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow’s recently commented that Boston is looking to add extra pop to its lineup, and either player would certainly fit in this regard.  Schwarber is an elite power bat coming off a career year, hitting 56 homers and slashing .240/.365/.563 over 724 plate appearances for the Phillies.  Bichette rebounded from an injury-shortened down year in 2024 to hit .311/.357/.483 with 18 homers over 628 plate appearances for the Blue Jays this sesason.

The injury bug did bite again for Bichette, as a knee sprain kept Bichette sidelined for most of September and most of the Jays’ playoff run until he was able to return in the World Series, but he still did plenty to re-establish himself as one of the preeminent infield bats in the sport.  MLB Trade Rumors ranked Bichette second on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and projected the shortstop to land an eight-year, $208MM contract.

Schwarber ranked ninth on the list with a five-year, $135MM projection.  Schwarber is entering his age-33 season and is basically a full-time designated hitter, but while teams have traditionally been wary of committing major dollars to such aging and defensively limited players, Schwarber’s numbers are so outsized that he’ll very likely command a lengthy contract.  There is also a sense that his market could be driven upwards by the Phillies, who have been very open about their desire to re-sign the slugger.

The Red Sox are very familiar with Schwarber, as he posted big numbers and quickly became a clubhouse favorite after Boston acquired him from the Nationals at the 2021 trade deadline.  Schwarber was just a rental pickup as he entered free agency that winter and signed his four-year, $79MM deal with Philadelphia.  On paper, Schwarber might not be an entirely ideal fit for the Sox since he’ll monopolize the DH spot and add another left-handed bat to an already lefty-leaning lineup, but these could be relatively minor concerns given the upside of Schwarber’s offense.

Bichette is a right-handed hitter, but his defensive fit is an open question, as whether or not Bichette remains at shortstop will be one of the key subplots of his free agency.  Bichette’s defense has been a question mark for years, and such public metrics as Defensive Runs Saved (-12) and Outs Above Average (-13) hated his glovework in 2025.

In the early days of the offseason, suitors “haven’t been scared off of Bichette at shortstop,” ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes, and it isn’t yet known if Bichette and his reps at Vayner Sports are marketing him strictly as a shortstop, or if Bichette is open to a position change.  He did make his big league debut at second base during the World Series, in a nod to the physical limitations of his PCL sprain.

As it relates to the Red Sox, Trevor Story is lined up as the team’s shortstop.  Story’s own defensive metrics were well below average in 2025, marking a surprising decline for a player who has been a very strong defensive shortstop for much of his career.  Breslow has said that Story will play shortstop next year, but since Story has shown a willingness to play other positions in the past (he was Boston’s regular second baseman when healthy in 2022), it is possible some shifting could go on within the Sox infield.  The simpler solution would be to just slot Bichette at second base alongside Story at shortstop, or Bichette could potentially factor into Boston’s third base picture.

The Sox have a prominent free agent infielder of their own in Alex Bregman, who MLBTR projects for a six-year, $160MM contract.  This puts Bregman as less expensive than Bichette and only a bit pricier than Schwarber.  Beyond just the cost of pure dollars, the Sox would need to give up draft pick compensation for signing a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent like Bichette or Schwarber, whereas Bregman could be re-signed for just money.  Bregman is also a known commodity for the organization, and he made a big impact both on and off the field in his one season in Boston.

That said, Bichette is also almost four years younger than Bregman and five years to the day younger than Schwarber.  Top prospect Marcelo Mayer made his MLB debut in 2025 and seems poised to take on a more regular role somewhere in Boston’s infield, so Mayer could conceivably take over Bregman’s old spot at third base while Bichette plays second or shortstop.  With Triston Casas rumored to be a trade candidate, first base has also been mentioned as target area for Boston, with names like Pete Alonso, Kazuma Okamoto, and Munetaka Murakami floated as speculative candidates to join the Sox.

Mets Making Brandon Nimmo, Kodai Senga Available In Trade Talks

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With Pete Alonso and Edwin Diaz headed into free agency on the heels of a season where the Mets shockingly missed the postseason, it goes without saying that some significant changes will be coming to the Mets’ roster this winter. Much of the focus, naturally, has been on potential additions, whether that’s bringing back Alonso and Diaz or making a splash in the starting pitching market. There’s also been plenty of talk regarding players the Mets could look to part ways with on the trade market, however, and today Jeff Passan of ESPN made clear that two more names are available on the Mets’ roster: outfielder Brandon Nimmo and right-hander Kodai Senga.

Nimmo, 33 in March, is a somewhat surprising trade candidate due to the many complications surrounding a potential deal. The veteran has spent all ten seasons of his MLB career in Queens and has a no-trade clause. Nimmo would have to agree to any trade, which would naturally limit his suitors. While hardly an albatross, his contract isn’t exactly appealing, either. Nimmo has five years left on the eight-year, $162MM contract he signed with the Mets during the 2022-23 offseason. Just over $101MM of that money has yet to be paid out, and it’s hard to imagine Nimmo approaching five years and $101MM in free agency this winter if he was a free agent.

That would likely leave the Mets in a position where they would need to pay down a significant portion of Nimmo’s contract in order to facilitate a deal. Nimmo has been generally productive throughout his time in New York but has watched his numbers fall off a bit over the past two seasons. Since the start of the 2024 campaign, he’s slashed a combined .244/.326/.418 with 48 homers and 52 doubles, a 22.7% strikeout rate against a 9.8% walk rate, and a wRC+ of 111. He’s been worth 5.8 WAR according to Fangraphs and 5.1 WAR according to Baseball Reference over the past two years. While he was once a capable center fielder, his defense has dropped off enough that he’s more of a roughly average glove in a corner outfield spot, with -1 Outs Above Average and +3 Defensive Runs Saves in outfield this season with him starting 146 of his 147 games in the field out in left.

A two-to-three win corner outfielder is certainly something plenty of teams could use, and Nimmo does deserve acknowledgement for his reliability. Outside of his 32-game debut season in 2016, Nimmo has never posted a wRC+ below 108. Injury woes early in his career have subsided as well, and he’s played in at least 150 games with at least 650 plate appearances in each of the past four years. That four year stretch has seen him average 22 homers, 28 doubles, and a 10.2% walk rate against a 21.0% strikeout rate. With an above average track record in the outfield, he’ll surely be appealing to teams if the Mets were willing to pay down enough of his salary to make the inevitable decline as Nimmo enters his mid-to-late 30s easier to stomach.

Finding a fit for Nimmo’s services depends entirely on how much money the Mets would be willing to eat and where Nimmo would be willing to be traded. The Royals and Guardians are two of the teams most desperately in need of outfield help in the game, but they operate with small budgets and may not be the sort of consistent contender a veteran like Nimmo would surely prefer to play for. The Phillies have money to spend, a hole in the outfield, and recent success, but it would be a shock to see the Mets trade a franchise stalwart to one of their biggest rivals. Perhaps the Yankees would be a fit as they look for outfield help, though the club may simply prefer to re-sign Cody Bellinger or Trent Grisham rather than bring Nimmo into the fold.

As for Senga, the mercurial right-hander has already been known to be garnering interest on the market, though the Mets’ level of interest in moving hasn’t been clear. Passan reports that the righty is “extremely available,” however, and adds that multiple executives expect him to be traded this winter. The Orioles, Cubs, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Padres are on a long list of teams known to be looking for starting pitching help this winter, and any could make sense as trade partners for the Mets if they do decide to move Senga. The two years and $28MM guaranteed remaining on Senga’s contract could make him a particularly intriguing fit for teams hoping to fill a rotation spot on a budget like San Diego.

While the Mets are expected to add to their rotation rather than subtract this winter, room will need to be made in the rotation mix for external additions as well as up-and-coming youngsters like Nolan McLean and Brandon Sproat.  That’s enough to make a Senga trade worth thinking about for the front office, especially given the highs that could make him enticing to suitors have been matched by equally distressing lows.

The righty sports a career 3.00 ERA and 3.82 FIP across three seasons in the majors to go with a 26.8% strikeout rate, but an 11.1% walk rate, struggles bouncing back from injuries, and the fact that he’ll turn 33 in January all raise questions about his future. Senga struggled badly enough in the second half this past year that he agreed to be optioned to the minor leagues in September and would only have been part of the Mets’ playoff picture if their rotation mix suffered multiple October injuries, suggesting that the organization had little faith in the righty at the end of this past season.

Tatsuya Imai To Be Posted November 19th

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TODAY: Imai has officially been posted, as the league informed teams today.  Imai’s posting window opens tomorrow at 7am CT and closes on January 2 at 4pm CT.

NOVEMBER 12: It was reported last week that right-hander Tatsuya Imai would be posted by the Seibu Lions of Nippon Professional Baseball. His agent Scott Boras met with members of the media today at the general managers meeting and said the posting will become official on November 19th. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet was among those to pass it along.

Once the posting becomes official, it will open up a 45-day window for Imai and Boras to negotiate will all 30 major league clubs. Technically, they will have until early January to work something out. It’s probably fair to expect a deal to come together before the holidays, when the hot stove activity tends to slow down.

Imai should garner lots of interest based on his results and also his age. His earned run average in Japan has been 2.34 or lower in three straight seasons now, including a 1.92 mark in 2025. His strikeout rate has ticked up from 24.4% in 2023 to 26.3% last year and 27.8% this year. Meanwhile, his walk rate has dropped from 11.4% to 9.8% to 7% in those years.

He is currently 27 years old, turning 28 in May. Teams have shown that they value that youth. Recent deals for young players like Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jung Hoo Lee have surged beyond expectations.

Imai won’t have as much earning power as Yamamoto, who secured $325MM over 12 years. Yamamoto was even younger, having just turned 25 when he was posted, and also had the superior track record of performance. Still, Imai should find lots of interest. MLBTR predicted he could secure a $150MM guarantee on a six-year deal.

The signing team will also owe the Lions a posting fee, on top of the guarantee they give Imai. The Lions will get 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the contract’s next $25MM, and 15% of any money above the $50MM mark. If Imai were to sign a deal matching MLBTR’s $150MM projection, his new team would owe the Lions a $24.375MM posting fee.

The righty has already been connected to the Mets. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported today that the Yankees will be looking at Imai, as well as Lucas Giolito. The Yanks go into 2026 with their rotation in flux. Due to injuries, it projects to be much different later in the year compared to the end of camp. Gerrit Cole is still recovering from last year’s Tommy John surgery and won’t be ready by Opening Day. Carlos Rodón underwent a procedure to remove loose bodies from his left elbow and is expected to start the year on the injured list as well. Clarke Schmidt had internal brace surgery in July and could rejoin the club in the second half.

With those absences, the Yankees project to start the season with Max Fried, Cam Schlittler, Luis Gil, Will Warren and Allan Winans in the rotation. Adding to that group would be an understandable target. It’s possible that things get tight later in the year as Cole, Rodón and Schmidt get healthy, but other injuries could also pop up along the way.

Giolito should be a far more affordable addition than Imai. MLBTR predicted him for a two-year, $32MM deal. He was once a borderline ace but hasn’t been at that level in a while. His ERA finished near 5.00 in 2022 and 2023. He missed 2024 due to internal brace surgery. He returned in 2025 and posted a 3.41 ERA but with less impressive stuff under the hood. HIs 19.7% strikeout rate was below league average and well below the 33.7% mark he had back in 2020. He also finished the season back on the IL with an elbow issue, though he says that has now passed.

There are plenty of other starting pitchers the Yankees could consider at different price levels. Presumably, their plans in the rotation will depend upon what they do elsewhere. They have to address their outfield, with Cody Bellinger and Trent Grisham having both reached free agency. It’s also possible they look to remake a bullpen that was a source of frustration in 2025.

Photo courtesy of Rick Osentoski, Imagn Images.

White Sox Receiving Trade Interest In Kyle Teel

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White Sox catcher Kyle Teel has been drawing trade interest, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon.  This item comes a few days after another report indicating that Sox backstop Edgar Quero was also receiving trade inquiries.

It would take “a spectacular return” for Chicago to deal either catcher, in the words of Rosenthal and Sammon.  This aligns with recent comments made by White Sox GM Chris Getz, who told Sox Machine’s James Fegan that “I don’t think” it was time for the Sox to consider trading from their depth behind the plate.

The fact that rival clubs are even asking about Teel or Quero is a reminder that teams make all sorts of due-diligence inquiries about many players, no matter how seemingly unlikely a trade would seem.  Teel and Quero are top-100 prospects who just finished their rookie seasons, and are under team control through the 2031 season.  On paper, there is little reason why a rebuilding team like the White Sox would be open to dealing either catcher so early in their careers.

Even if the Sox might already have one of Teel or Quero specifically in mind as their proverbial catcher of the future, there’s no immediate reason for the club to move the other, especially when the duo can split time behind the plate in 2026 and also gain extra at-bats via the DH role.  Catching depth is such a rare commodity around the league that it isn’t surprising to see teams inquire about what is technically a surplus for Chicago at the position (Korey Lee is also on the 40-man roster), but for that same reason, the Sox are surely wary about trading from this surplus.

Teel is the higher-profile of the two catchers, as the Red Sox selected him 14th overall in the 2023 draft and Teel was perhaps the key piece of the trade package Chicago received for Garrett Crochet last offseason.  Called up to the Show in early June, Teel made a strong showing in his rookie year, hitting .273/.375/.411 with eight home runs in his first 297 plate appearances against big league pitching.  By comparison, Quero hit .268/.333/.356 with five homers in 403 PA, and neither catcher was particularly impressive from a defensive standpoint.

Kazuma Okamoto To Be Posted November 19th

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It’s been known for nearly a month now that NPB infielder Kazuma Okamoto is set to be posted by the Yomiuri Giants this winter, but a report from Nikkan Sports (Japanese language link) this morning provided a bit more specificity regarding Okamoto’s timeline. He’ll be officially posted tomorrow, on November 19th, and that will kick off a 45-day window for teams to negotiate with Okamoto, who is represented by Scott Boras of the Boras Corporation.

That’s the same posting date as right-hander Tatsuya Imai, a fellow Boras client. Boras told reporters (including those at Nikkan Sports) that the pair would follow the same approximate timeline. They’ll be posted tomorrow before traveling to the United States in early December. That sets them up to be in the country in time to begin negotiations with clubs ahead of this year’s Winter Meetings, which are set to run from December 7 through December 10 this year. The posting window for both Okamoto and Imai is set to end in early January, but it would not be a surprise to see the pair to sign before the holidays given the slowdown of activity around that time.

Turning back to Okamoto specifically, the 29-year-old is coming off a strong season in 2025 that was abbreviated by an elbow injury. While he only played in 69 games, he managed to slash .327/.416/.598 with 15 homers and 21 doubles in just 293 trips to the plate. He also showed strong contact ability and plate discipline with 11.3% strikeout and walk rates. That’s an unusually low strikeout rate by his standards, but even his 17.7% clip since the start of the 2018 season is nothing to scoff at. Impressive as Okamoto’s career .277/.361/.521 slash line in Central League play is, however, it’s worth remembering that NPB pitchers often lack the same high-end velocity that has become routine in MLB. Some scouting reports, including that of Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs, have noted that Okamoto’s numbers suffer against mid-90s and higher velocity. Of course, that’s also a flaw that can improve with great exposure to those types of pitches.

Okamoto has spent plenty of time at both infield corners over the years, and there’s been some debate about his fit defensively in the majors. He’s generally viewed as more capable of sticking long-term at the hot corner than fellow infielder Munetaka Murakami, though it’s fair to expect some teams to view him as capable of being a regular at third while others see him as more of a first base only defender. Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso stand at the top of the third and first base markets, respectively, with Eugenio Suarez, Jorge Polanco, and Luis Arraez standing out among the other notable corner infield options available.

MLBTR predicted a four-year, $64MM deal for Okamoto at the outset of the offseason, though it’s worth noting there’s at least some reason to believe Okamoto, Imai, and Murakami could all outperform expectations financially, at least to some extent. Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that some MLB clubs are hoping to “avoid falling further behind” the Dodgers in the Japanese market, and that this sentiment could help the three top NPB talents coming over from Japan this winter secure better-than-expected deals.

The team that ultimately signs Okamoto will owe Yomiuri a posting fee on top of whatever they guarantee the infield. The posting fee works out to be 20% of the first $25MM Okamoto signs for, 17.5% of the contract’s next $25MM, and 15% of any money above the $50MM mark. If Okamoto were to sign for the $64MM guarantee MLBTR predicted he’ll land, the signing team would owe a posting fee of approximately $11.5MM, which would take the total financial outlay for Okamoto’s services to $75.5MM.

MLBTR Chat Transcript

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Steve Adams

  • Good morning all! Sorry for the odd timing and abrupt start today. With the QO acceptance deadline and Rule 5 protection deadline both looming this afternoon, I assume it’s going to be a bit too chaotic to run a chat at the usual time. We’ll go for about an hour this morning, like usual.

JD

  • I made my statement move. Where do I look to improve next between 2B, 3B and bullpen?

Steve Adams

  • All of the above? It’s not really a matter of one priority over the other. I’d be surprised if the Mariners don’t add one more infielder and at least one bullpen arm, though the former is a bigger priority. Retaining Polanco is the most straightforward option, but I could see Gleyber as well, if he rejects a QO. Trade market is always in play, too. Brendan Donovan fits really nicely both in terms of roster need and the general skill set (high contact/low strikeout, defensive versatility) I’d expect Seattle to value heavily.

Royals

  • Would Kris Bubic for Jhostynxon Garcia be a deal that could work?

Steve Adams

  • While Bubic being traded wouldn’t surprise me, I don’t think he’s going to fetch an MLB-ready top-100 prospect. He’s coming off another injury-shortened season and only has one year of club control remaining.

Mitch Garver

  • The team that drafted me needs a new backup catcher right? Reunion time?

Steve Adams

  • Garver’s defensive grades have wilted, and I feel like if the Twins want a backup they’ll just sign a glove-first type. If they’re going to spend money this winter — far from a guarantee — backup catcher seems a ways down the list of needs.

Henry

  • Do you think the blue jays are the favourites to sign Tucker?

Steve Adams

  • I don’t think there’s any one individual favorite at this point, but the Jays are among the five to six most plausible and likeliest landing spots, sure.

Unclemike1526

  • You think Shota will sign a new deal with the Cubs or leave? I’m still not sold that he wants out of town. Thanks

Steve Adams

  • He basically turned down two years and $30MM from them when he declined his player option (since exercising it would’ve given him another $15MM player option).Maybe he prefers the one-year, higher-AAV route, but then he’s just a free agent again ahead of a potential work stoppage? I tend to think he’ll reject and get three years elsewhere — very likely at less than the $57.75MM he’d have made if the Cubs had exercised his option

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Pirates Interested In Kyle Schwarber, Showed Interest In Josh Naylor

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Pirates GM Ben Cherington said last week that he had “more [financial] flexibility than we’ve had in other offseasons I’ve been in Pittsburgh,” and subsequent reports indicated that Bucs ownership could approach the $40MM mark with their spending plans this winter.  This willingness to spend has translated to some early interest in two of the best hitters on the free agent market, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that the Pirates have interest in Kyle Schwarber, and also had interest in Josh Naylor before Naylor re-signed with the Mariners.

The exact nature of the Bucs’ talks with Naylor weren’t specified, yet Passan indicated that the Pirates were prepared to offer Naylor more than $78MM.  This would’ve been, by a wide margin, the priciest free agent deal in Pirates history.  Francisco Liriano’s three-year, $39MM deal from December 2014 remains the biggest guarantee the perennially low-spending Buccos have ever given to a free agent.

Naylor re-upped with the Mariners for five years and $92.5MM.  Beyond just the money, there was plenty of mutual interest between Naylor and the M’s in continuing their relationship, as evidenced by the fact that Naylor agreed to a new deal so soon after the free agent market opened.  Seattle looks well-positioned to keep contending throughout Naylor’s tenure, so it likely would’ve taken a drastic overpay from the Pirates to convince him to leave the Mariners for a Pittsburgh club that has struggled through seven straight losing seasons.

Along these same lines, Schwarber is expected to receive plenty of offers from big-market contenders, including his former team in Philadelphia.  MLB Trade Rumors projects Schwarber to receive a five-year, $135MM contract, even though he is entering his age-33 season and is essentially a DH-only player at this point in his career.  Schwarber’s huge power, consistent production, and reputation as a clubhouse leader will very likely outweigh concerns about his age, and the Phillies (like the Mariners with Naylor) are prioritizing bringing Schwarber back into the fold.

This being said, the fact that Schwarber and Naylor are even being mentioned in connection to the Pirates is eye-opening, and perhaps indicative of how uncharacteristically aggressive Pittsburgh may be in trying to upgrade its lineup.  While the Pirates have been rebuilding for the bulk of Cherington’s tenure, his last couple of offseasons have seen the GM spread out his limited spending capacity over multiple players, with the idea of addressing several needs rather than making one single big strike.  The tactic makes sense on paper, but it hasn’t really worked in practice, as the Bucs have remained under the .500 mark.

With this in mind, Pittsburgh might now be more open to adding one clear-cut star bat to its lineup, even if it means going outside the team’s usual financial comfort zone.  The very top of the free agent hitting market (i.e. Kyle Tucker or Bo Bichette) is likely still out of the question for the Pirates.  But, if Schwarber and Naylor are on the radar, players like Cody Bellinger, Pete Alonso, Eugenio Suarez, Kazuma Okamoto, and any number of other available bats could now conceivably be within Pittsburgh’s spending range.

Bucs fans can be forgiven for taking a “we’ll believe it when we see it” stance on the Pirates’ pursuit of major free agents.  That said, Paul Skenes’ immediate impact as arguably baseball’s best pitcher has created more pressure on the team to return to contention while Skenes is still under team control.  Skenes and the Pirates’ collection of promising young arms was let down by a dismal offense in 2025, so adding hitting is the obvious top priority on the team’s offseason checklist.

The common theory going into the winter was that Pittsburgh was again going to trade from its stockpile of hurlers to obtain some much-needed hitting help.  Cherington had already flatly shot down any possibility of Skenes being dealt, but conceivably any of the less-experienced arms could be dealt for an equally promising young bat.  As for the Buccos’ more seasoned pitchers, the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon reported today that Johan Oviedo is drawing trade interest, and Mitch Keller has been mentioned in trade rumors for months.

Keller is also the Pirates’ second-highest paid player, so dealing the right-hander would free up more payroll room for further moves.  This could mean more exploration at the higher end of the free agent market, or the Pirates could conceivably take on some salary in a trade for a more expensive hitter.  Trading Keller for a similarly-priced hitter would be the smoothest way to accomplish this goal, though such an easy match isn’t obvious on the trade front.

The fact that the Pirates were looking at Naylor doesn’t necessarily mean that the team isn’t satisfied with incumbent first baseman Spencer Horwitz, as Horwitz could be moved to DH in the event that another first baseman was added.  It also could mean that Pittsburgh was more broadly looking at any available top bat, and figuring out the positional fit can come after the fact.

One position that probably won’t receive much attention is shortstop, as top prospect Konnor Griffin is expected to be in the majors at some point in 2026.  This could even be as early as Opening Day, as Passan writes that “the Pirates are strongly considering giving [Griffin]…the opportunity to win their big league shortstop job” in Spring Training.  It would be a bold promotion for a 19-year-old who has only one year of pro ball under his belt, and Griffin’s resume consists of 21 Double-A games and zero Triple-A games.

Nevertheless, Griffin is viewed as perhaps the best prospect in baseball, and he looked so impressive in 2025 that he already appears to be on the verge of his MLB debut.  Putting Griffin on the Opening Day roster and keeping him in the majors throughout 2026 could eventually earn the Pirates a bonus draft pick via the Prospect Promotion Incentive program, should Griffin win Rookie of the Year honors, or if he has a top-three finish in NL MVP voting during his pre-arbitration years.

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