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MLBTR Poll: Didi Gregorius & The Qualifying Offer

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Now that the Yankees’ season is over, their front office is left to ponder the futures of many of the club’s players, including shortstop Didi Gregorius. While Gregorius has largely been an above-average to excellent contributor since the Yankees acquired him entering 2015, the two sides’ five-year partnership may be on the verge of ending. Gregorius is weeks from a trip to free agency, where he’s easily slated to be the highest-upside shortstop available. The question, if Gregorius does reach the open market, is whether he’ll come with a qualifying offer attached.

The 29-year-old Gregorius would’ve been a slam dunk for a $17.8MM QO were he coming off a similar season to the ones he posted from 2017-18. Gregorius was a 4.0-fWAR player in each of those years, though he underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow after the latter of those campaigns. As a result, Gregorius didn’t debut this year until June 7. When Gregorius returned, he wasn’t the same player the Yankees grew accustomed to seeing in the previous two seasons. He wound up playing just about half the season (82 games) and slashing a mediocre .238/.276/.441 in 344 plate appearances. The power outburst Gregorius enjoyed from 2017-18 remained intact, evidenced by his 16 home runs and his .204 ISO, yet he still only managed an 84 wRC+ (he checked in at 122 just a year ago).

In light of his downtick in production this season, it’s fair to wonder whether the Yankees will qualify Gregorius and risk paying him a hefty sum for 2020. They did bring Gregorius back for a pricey $11.75MM in the wake of his TJ surgery last year, but as mentioned, he was coming off a much stronger season at the time. Now, it’s easy to imagine Gregorius accepting a much more expensive QO and trying for a bounce-back year in New York. Doing so would take a significant chunk out of the luxury tax-minded Yankees’ spending room for a position to which the club arguably doesn’t need to allocate a ton of financial resources. The Yankees could let Gregorius walk, plug Gleyber Torres in at short and use DJ LeMahieu at second. Alternatively, if the Yankees really want to go for a bold strike after yet another season without a World Series title, they could trade for someone like Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor, keep Torres at second and continue to move the versatile LeMahieu around the infield.

Regardless of whether Lindor’s a realistic trade target for the Yankees, what should they do with Gregorius in the next couple weeks? Is he worth taking a chance on via QO, or should general manager Brian Cashman let him hit the market unfettered?

(Poll link for app users)

World Series Roster Notes

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World Series media day gave us a bit of a look behind the curtain at the planning that is going into the early portion of this year’s series. We still don’t have full and final 25-man rosters for the Astros and Nationals, but their respective managers did discuss a few major tactical decisions that have already been made. Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com and Jake Kaplan of The Athletic were among those to cover the festivities; all links below are to their Twitter feeds.

  • There aren’t any surprises in terms of the initial pitching plans. The Nationals will roll out a rested Max Scherzer for the first game tomorrow night. As a prize for eliminating the Yankees in six games, rather than taking it to a seventh, the Astros will be able to counter with their top option in Gerrit Cole. The second match-up of the series will be just as compelling, with the Nats starting Stephen Strasburg and the ’Stros going with Justin Verlander.
  • After that? You might presume that each team will turn to its third starter — in each case, a hurler that would feature as an ace on quite a few other staffs around the game. Houston manager A.J. Hinch committed to utilizing mid-season trade acquisition Zack Greinke to open game three. But D.C. skipper Davey Martinez says he’s not going to name a starter yet for the first contest back in the nation’s capital. Does that mean that southpaw Patrick Corbin might be utilized in relief in Houston, as he has on several occasions already in the postseason? Martinez said we’ll just have to wait and see how things unfold.
  • It remains to be seen whether either team will end up utilizing a fourth starter to open any contests. The Nats can perhaps have some added confidence in Anibal Sanchez after watching him nearly no-hit the Cardinals in the NLCS, though tip-toeing through an exceptionally potent Astros lineup would be another thing entirely for the wily veteran. It’ll also be a wait-and-see situation for the Houston organization, with Hinch saying Brad Peacock, Jose Urquidy, or some other pitcher could be tapped to open a game that will likely feature quite a few pitching changes.
  • The availability of a designated hitter slot will open some opportunities for the Nats in games one and two. The club is planning to place veteran Howie Kendrick in the bat-only slot, Martinez suggested. Kendrick has stung the ball all year long and thrived in big situations in October, but he has also hurt the Nationals with the glove at times. Meanwhile, Hinch says the Astros will be sticking with young slugger Yordan Alvarez — at least for the first two contests. Whether or not he’ll be installed in left field once the series moves to D.C. could depend upon who’s starting game three — and whether Alvarez can break out of the 1-for-24, 12-strikeout skid he left in the championship series.
  • In terms of a formal roster announcement, that isn’t yet available. The Astros, in particular, are waiting until the last possible moment. The club believes that excellent reliever Ryan Pressly will be good to go after dealing with a knee injury in the ALCS. But it’ll hold off on making the final call until checking on his condition tomorrow. Both teams figure to rely heavily upon their core players throughout the series. Each could go in a variety of directions with a few of the final roster spots — those players that may not end up being used much at all, but could end up being thrust into major roles at key junctures.

Giants Interview Will Venable

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Cubs first base coach Will Venable interviewed with the Giants on Friday for their managerial vacancy, Henry Schulman and John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle report. He had previously been rumored to be of interest to the San Francisco organization.

Venable, who’ll turn 37 at the end of the month, wrapped up a solid big-league career in 2016. Since, the Princeton grad has worked in the Cubs organization, serving as the first base coach on Joe Maddon’s staff.

With this reported interview, the Giants are now known to have held first-round meet-and-greets with at least seven candidates to take over the managerial seat vacated by Bruce Bochy. Venable is also reportedly under consideration to take over for Maddon in Chicago.

Chris Owings, Gorkys Hernandez, Josh Smith Elect Free Agency

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The Red Sox announced today that three players — infielder Chris Owings, outfielder Gorkys Hernandez, and righty Josh Smith — have elected free agency. (H/t MLB.com’s Ian Browne, on Twitter.) Each had the right to choose the open market after being outrighted off of the 40-man roster.

When the Boston organization prepared to defend its 2018 World Series title, it surely did not anticipate relying upon this particular trio. But each ended up playing a reasonably significant role as the club limped through a disappointing season.

The versatile Owings came over after a failed stint with the Royals to open the year. He continued to struggle at the plate and finished the campaign with an overall .139/.209/.233 batting line through 196 plate appearances. There’s little question he’ll be looking for a minor-league deal this winter.

Ditto Hernandez, who batted a meager .143/.218/.245 in 57 attempts with the Sox. He also failed to crack a .700 OPS in the hitter-friendly International League, where he spent most of the season. The former Giants, Pirates, and Marlins outfielder has appeared in parts of six MLB seasons but has never come around with the bat.

As for Smith, 32, he allowed more than five earned runs per nine at both the MLB and Triple-A levels in 2019. He was torched for ten home runs in his 31 major-league frames — the first he had thrown since 2017. In 158 1/3 total MLB innings, he carries a 5.40 ERA with 7.5 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9.

Both Owings and Hernandez were eligible for arbitration, though it was never likely that either was considered for a tender. MLBTR projected Owings to earn $3.0MM and Hernandez to earn $1.0MM.

Diamondbacks Notes: Ex-Dbacks, Rizzo, Offense, Marte

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The Diamondbacks surprisingly hung around the Wild Card race until mid-September this season, despite shedding the faces of their franchise over the course of the six months previous. The postseason has been a who’s who of important Dbacks of the last half decade, as Patrick Corbin has taken out the rest of the Dbacks former talent core, starting with A.J. Pollock and the Dodgers and Paul Goldschmidt and the Cardinals. He’ll take his best shot at Zack Greinke and the Astros in game 3 of the World Series, aka the former Dbacks ace bowl. Of course, Mike Rizzo, the Nationals GM, is also an ex-Diamondback. He served as Arizona’s Scouting Director from 2000 to 2006. Let’s take a look at some Diamondbacks news from Rizzo’s era up to the present day…

  • It’s unsurprising to realize Rizzo repurposed the team-building blueprint from the 2001 Diamondbacks champs in putting together his team in Washington, per MASN’s Mark Zuckerman. Mainly, that means two aces up front and a host of veteran hitters capable of putting together veteran at-bats. All in all, it’s a pretty uncannily accurate casting job on the part of Rizzo. Max Scherzer is Randy Johnson, Stephen Strasburg is Curt Schilling, Patrick Corbin is an evolved Brian Anderson, Anibal Sanchez is Miguel Batista. Many of the vets also fit the mold: Howie Kendrick can play Mark Grace, Gerardo Parra as David Dellucci or Danny Bautista, Ryan Zimmerman as Matt Williams, Asdrubal Cabrera as Jay Bell, Adam Eaton as Reggie Sanders, Matt Adams as Greg Colbrunn and Kurt Suzuki is Damian Miller. In the bullpen, Fernando Rodney is definitely Mike Morgan, Sean Doolittle is Matt Mantei (I guess?), Daniel Hudson is (gulp) Byung-Hyun Kim. Okay, perhaps it’s not 1-1 all the way through, but those Diamondbacks did win the World Series after a 92-win season – after a 93-win season in Washington, Rizzo hopes to replicate his old team one last time.
  • Despite two recent aces facing off for different teams in the World Series, the Diamondbacks offseason focus is the offense, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. The Dbacks put together a middle-of-the-pack offense in 2019, but the bats went away in an 11-game stretch in mid-September. They went 3-8 and pretty much fell out of race while scoring less than 2 1/2 runs per game. Those are the games that stick out for GM Mike Hazen, who will be on the lookout for ways to diversify their offense. Parsing the profile of the type of hitter Hazen may target is more difficult, as Arizona’s offense didn’t really stand out in any which way. They finished below-average in home runs, but not by a lot, above-average in men left on base and GIDP, but again, not by much. They were exactly league-average in batting average and on-base percentage, while their team slugging (.434 SLG) was below average by .001 SLG – as close to average as any team in the MLB.
  • As far as Ketel Marte is concerned, the Dbacks aren’t making a decision about his 2020 defensive home until they build out the rest of the roster. Second base could be where they look to improve offensively, in which case Marte will head back out to center. Essentially, the plan remains the same, with Hazen and the Dbacks set to take full advantage of the versatility Marte affords.

CC Sabathia Retires

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CC Sabathia announced his retirement this morning on Twitter. Obviously, this comes as no surprise, as the entire season served as Sabathia’s retirement tour.

Sabathia first appeared in the majors as a 20-year-old rookie way back in 2001 for the Cleveland Indians. In a career spanning 19 seasons, Sabathia finished with 251 wins across 560 starts, compiling a 3.74 ERA/3.78 FIP, 3,577 1/3 innings, 3,093 strikeouts, summed to 63.0 bWAR/66.5 fWAR. It was certainly an impressive career for Sabathia, who pitched for the Indians, Brewers, and Yankees.

Sabathia won a World Series with the 2009 Yankees and made 6 All-Star teams. He won the Cy Young award for the Indians in 2007 after going 19-7 with a 3.21 ERA/3.14 FIP across a league-leading 241 innings. Sabathia ranks 16th all-time in strikeouts (3,093), 37th in pitcher fWAR (66.5), and 48th in wins (251). 68.75% of MLBTR readers believe Sabathia put together a Hall of Fame career.

It certainly didn’t finish in an optimal fashion, leaving the ALCS due to injury, but Sabathia appears to have no qualms about finishing out his career. He released a retirement statement with a tweet that that read simply, “Thank you, Baseball.”

MLBTR Poll: Which World Series Storyline Is The Most Compelling?

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The results are in. The Astros are winning the 2019 World Series. As a community, we may only be 63% certain, but even for those 100% locked into A.J. Hinch’s club getting to four wins before the Nationals, there are plenty of storylines to follow in this year’s World Series. MASN’s Mark Zuckerman did us the favor of putting together a list. The star power of these two starting staffs alone could (and will) entertain for days, and though the power of these rotations is enough, there are some tasty subplots not far below the surface.

The first being the heart-wrenching showdown of former teammates. There’s Max Scherzer/Anibal Sanchez and Justin Verlander from the 2012 pennant winner in Detroit. There’s also Patrick Corbin and Zack Greinke, with Greinke serving as the “big bad” in a series of Corbin’s ex-teammates from Arizona. Corbin has already vanquished fellow ex-Diamondbacks A.J. Pollock and Paul Goldschmidt.

But there’s more. Take Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, who probably won’t face off head-to-head until free agency, arguably the top two targets on the open market. Though if recent reports prove prescient, they may not match up there either. Still, the two former first round picks will be compared to one another until one or the other signs their next contract.

Cole can just as easily find comparison with Scherzer, his likely game 1 counterpart and career track doppelgänger. Scherzer signed his massive free agent deal with the Nationals the offseason after he turned 30-years-old. Cole is a year younger, having just turned 29, but Scherzer piled up just 44 more innings at the time of his free agency. Max was 91-50 with a 3.58 ERA/3.39 FIP, 9.6 K/9 to 2.8 BB/9 at the time of his free agency. Cole’s record is 94-52 with a 3.22 ERA/3.06 FIP, 10.1 K/9 to 2.4 BB/9.

If there’s an owner out there who hasn’t yet realized the comparison, game 1 should drive home the point. It’s a scary thought, but Cole could turn out to be an even better version of Scherzer. Both had some ups-and-down with their debut franchise (Diamondbacks for Scherzer, Pirates for Cole) before coming into their own for a playoff contender while pitching behind an ace (in both cases: Verlander). If the Nats can pull off a win, Cole will enter free agency as Max did, having played in and lost one World Series.

The game 2 starters – Verlander and Strasburg – have a little before-and-after to them as well. Verlander was the 2nd overall pick of the Tigers in 2004, Strasburg 1st overall in 2009. Verlander signed an extension with the Tigers while still under contract in March the year after the Tigers lost in the World Series. Strasburg has an opt-out this winter, and it’s been presumed that he will levy that opt-out into an extension with the team that drafted him as well.

Verlander, of course, reached the World Series for the first time in his first full season as a starter in 2006. Strasburg was held out of the postseason in 2012, his first full season as a starter. For continuity’s sake, I’m absolutely willing to make the gigantic leap here that Stras’ postseason participation would have led to a World Series berth in 2012. Had Stras and those Nats actually made the World Series, they would have faced off against – who else – Verlander’s Tigers.

By that time, Verlander, 29, was 124-65 over 232 starts with a 3.40 ERA/3.41 FIP. Strasburg, 31, is 112-58 over 239 starts with a 3.17 ERA/2.96 FIP. They’re not identical athletes, of course, but their career tracks to this point are relatively aligned. The real takeaway here is this: if the Nationals lose this series, as predicted, and Stras re-ups in DC, as predicted, look for that hefty contract to hit the trade block in 4 or 5 years, and expect Stras to lead whichever team that is smart enough to trade for him (let’s be honest, probably the Astros) to a championship or two. Granted, I’m working pretty hard to hammer these comparisons home, but everyone has to reckon with their younger selves at some point, and it’s fun to think we get to watch Verlander and Scherzer do it on a World Series stage.

Zuckerman also lists Ryan Zimmerman and Jose Altuve as interesting juxtapositions given their long-term status as the face of their respective franchises. The two organizational soldiers clearly occupy different stratospheres within baseball’s talent hierarchy: at 29-years-old, Altuve’s 38.5 career bWAR already eclipses the 37.8 bWAR accrued by the 35-year-old Zimmerman. Still, both became the face of their respective franchise at a critical juncture – Zimmerman as the Nationals first draft pick following the move to DC, Altuve as the lone holdover from the Astros days in the National League. Just as Altuve has appeared in every season the Astros have been in the AL, Zimmerman has appeared in each of the Nationals 15 seasons in the capital. Both have had their share of the limelight in this year’s postseason.

Both teams also field homegrown third baseman who are MVP candidates in 2019. Anthony Rendon was the 6th overall selection of the 2011 draft, while Alex Bregman went 2nd overall in 2015. Neither may be the odds-on favorite to take home the hardware, but both are deserving. Bregman rocked a .296/.423/.592 with 41 home runs, 1.015 OPS, 168 wRC+ while leading the league with 119 walks. Rendon merely hit .319/.412/.598 with 34 home runs, 1.010 OPS, 154 wRC+ while leading the league with 44 doubles and 126 RBIs. Neither player strikes out, they both play a good third base, and it’s not hard to fathom this series coming down to a big hit from one of them or the other.

Either team’s victory would add a fascinating chapter to their organization’s narrative. For the Nationals, a World Series win would cap off a year of ultimate redemption. Twice in the same week they notched the unequivocal biggest win in franchise history, first by finally surviving a do-or-die game in the Wild Card, later in winning their first playoff series with another late-game comeback, this time against the Dodgers to win the NLDS. By the time they got around to sweeping the Cardinals out of the NLCS, big playoff victories were practically old hat. Not to mention, of course, that winning the big prize the first season post Bryce Harper is the best case scenario for the vindictive among us.

For the Astros, they have a dynasty on the line. By modern standards, you may already consider this team a dynasty for winning two pennants in three seasons, but plenty of teams have achieved that level of success this decade alone, including the Dodgers, Rangers, Cardinals, Royals, and Giants. The Dodgers (2017, 2018) and Rangers (2011, 2011) never took home the ultimate prize, of course, but only the Giants of 2010, 2012, and 2014 managed to win multiple rings.

To the above potential narratives, we can add Juan Soto’s 21st birthday in game 3, the old school versus new school debate incarnate should Anibal Sanchez face a bullpen game in game 4, and the more straightforward old versus young debate in the form of each team’s designated hitter: Yordan Alvarez for the Astros versus whichever old fool the Nats decide to deploy in the role (Howie Kendrick, Zimmerman, or Asdrubal Cabrera, most likely).

For those not interested in all the hoopla, there’s still a good ole fashioned sporting competition to enjoy. This should be baseball at its finest. There’s lots to focus on in this series, but which narrative strikes your fancy? And which narratives did we miss?

(poll link for app users)

MLBTR Originals

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It’s been awhile since we’ve rounded up original content from the staff here at MLBTR. On a slow morning on the eve of the World Series, let me do the honor of gathering those eggs…

  • Just this morning, Mark Polishuk looked back on the trade that almost happened between our two World Series combatants. If exploring the multiverse is your thing, you’ll enjoy the alternative realities Mark cooked up.
  • MLBTR resident logistician Jeff Todd looks under the couch cushions in Flushing to see how much help the Mets will have in solving their payroll predicament this winter.
  • Connor Byrne took a comprehensive look at the market for Jackie Bradley Jr. The Red Sox glove-first centerfielder appears available for purchase should an interested party come calling. We know the Reds have had interest in the past, but read Connor’s piece to chew over who else might be interested in JBJ.
  • Though we can’t take credit for these openings, there’s no shame in keeping a lookout for a better J-O-B. The Orioles have some roles to fill, and we’re happy to pass these posted vacancies along to any who might have missed them. 
  • Speaking of job openings, there are still plenty of open managerial vacancies about which we can speculate. Even with Joe Maddon reuniting with his old flame, we still have the Mets, Phillies, Padres, Cubs, Pirates, Royals and Giants looking for new skippers. The Phillies managerial vacancy, however, is the one you can speculate about thanks to this poll.
  • And if polls are your thing, look no further. There are plenty of opportunities to weigh in here at MLBTR. Take an opportunity to cast your vote and see what the masses think about any number of baseball’s most fickle sticklers, such as who’s gonna win the World Series, what sparked the Nationals turnaround, CC Sabathia’s Hall of Fame case, the future of Joe Maddon’s Angels, or most pressing of all, the non-tender case for Kevin Pillar.
  • Lastly, never forget to check in weekly to chat with the MLBTR staff. Read the transcripts of the most recent chats here and here.

Coaching Notes: Phillies, Girardi, Red Sox, Fatse, Espada

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Joe Girardi is in Philadelphia today for his second meeting with ownership, and it’s his job to lose, tweets ESPN1000’s David Kaplan. The Phillies have no qualms about their ability to compete in 2020, and Girardi certainly fits the bill of a guy who’s been there before – both in terms of competition and level of scrutiny. Ownership and the front office weren’t necessarily aligned in their decision to part ways with Gabe Kapler, and it seems clear that ownership’s desire for a veteran hand is top-of-mind in their current search. Whomever takes the role will have an expectation to compete right away. Easier said than done in a division with the Braves, Nationals, and Mets also in gung-ho win-now mode. Let’s take a look elsewhere on the coaching carousel…

  • Peter Fatse will become the assistant hitting coach of the Boston Red Sox, per Brandon Warne of ZoneCoverageMN (via Twitter). Fatse, 32, spent last season as a minor league hitting coordinator for the Minnesota Twins. He is a native of Massachusetts, and he has owned an Advanced Performance Facility in the area since 2010, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. Fatse is the first offseason addition to Boston’s coaching staff, but they will soon look to fill out the pitching side of their coaching team.
  • Joe Espada has a second interview upcoming in Chicago, but he’s been through the ringer before. Espada interviewed with the Angels, Blue Jays, and Rangers last year before returning to Houston. Better than last year’s tryout, Espada’s off-field perseverance prepped him for this year’s round of interviews, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. While serving as Girardi’s third base and infield coach with the Yankees, Espada and his wife began to wrestle with what would become a diagnosis of autism for their daughter, who was only two-years-old at the time. “Seeing a four-year-old struggle to communicate with another four-year-old; you need to take time to spend with someone to teach them basic things,” Espada said, per Feinsand. “That can be the case in a clubhouse, too. The more we get involved, they see how much you care. The compassion, the commitment to do something together, it makes you a better person. It’s made me a better father and a better coach.”

 

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